Aoki in Center

In just 10 days since pitchers and catchers have reported, one common article topic has been the importance of Lorenzo Cain's health. On Sunday, the Kansas City Star's Andy McCullough brought us another one of these articles which you can read here. I don't deny the importance of Lorenzo Cain. If the man can stay healthy and hit just a little he would be a very valuable player for virtually every team in baseball. However, I don't want to talk about Lorenzo Cain's health twice in two weeks. Instead, I want to bring to light this nugget in the article:

"Yost has floated the idea of using right fielder Nori Aoki in center. Aoki played there 18 times during two seasons in Milwaukee."

If you are a reader of this blog, you know how much I like versatility. Determining whether or not Aoki can handle center during spring training is definitely advantageous for the Royals in 2014. But I also know that the Royals currently are planning to carry both Justin Maxwell and Danny Valencia, which would mean no middle infielder on the roster. Personally, I find it unlikely that the Royals will be able to make it long without a back up middle infielder and so I wonder if this Aoki in center talk is laying the groundwork for a Dyson versus middle infielder roster battle.

Let's face it, if Aoki logs time in center this Spring and looks good it definitely decreases the importance of Jarrod Dyson. If Yost finishes camp and is confident in Aoki's ability it wouldn't shock me at all to see both Valencia and Maxwell on the roster in addition to a utility man.

It would be a shame for the Royals to lose Dyson in such a way. His speed is game changing and as a back up there is definitely value in him pinch running late in close games. Also, where would the Royals be left when Lorenzo Cain gets injured? At that point, they'd have to bring up Carlos Peguero or Jimmy Paredes to be the back up outfielder and you have no one who can back up Aoki in center.

I hope the Royals realize that Dyson is too valuable of a commodity to simply move at the end of spring training. In fact, one could argue that given the importance of each game, his pinch running ability will be more important in 2014 than it has ever been. I've always been a Dyson fan, so I hope that I'm over analyzing here. At the same time, I do think the Royals need to find a way to fit a back up middle infielder on to the roster.

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Lorenzo Cain's Upside

On Thursday, the Kansas City Star's Pete Grathoff caught up with Royals injury prone center field Lorenzo Cain. During the interview Grathoff asked Cain about his defensive efforts and how important it is that he stays healthy this season. You can read the whole article here and here's what Cain had to say about his defense:

"I made a lot of plays, got to a lot of balls, but that's what I work hard on in practice each and every day to perfect my craft. I feel like I did a great job of it last year, but like I said, that was last year. I've got to go out there and try and improve on last year."

 There weren't many things more enjoyable when watching the 2013 Royals than the night after night highlight reel display that was put on by #6. You know a guy's defense is top notch when he can compile 2.8 fWAR despite an OPS+ of 80. Unfortunately, the guy has been unable to stay healthy throughout a full season.

Thanks to Cain's defensive prowess, there's a good bet that he is going to net positive value for the Royals while healthy. Of course, if Cain could get back to even 2012 offensive form, he could be worth 3.5 to 4.5 fWAR for Kansas City. This would make him possibly the most valuable player on the team. Obviously, for the Royals to make the next step, they'll need at least a couple of players to post 4+ win seasons. I don't think many would predict Cain to be one of those guys, but we are simply talking about him combining his 2012 offense with his 2013 defense.

I've heard a few times during Royals broadcasts comparisons between Cain and former Twins centerfielder Torii Hunter. The comparisons often cite both as being late bloomers whose offense took time to develop, while their defense was always fantastic.

Hunter spent 7 seasons in the minors and didn't fully stick at the Major League level until he was a 24 year-old. However, at age 25, Hunter played in 148 games and posted a 102 OPS+. Cain also spent 7 seasons in the Minors, but unlike Hunter whose journey began as a 17 year old, Cain's Minor League career started when he was 19. This of course, puts Cain a couple years behind Hunter on the developmental curve.

Hunter's and Cain's first two full seasons were eerily similar. In Hunter's first 241 games he hit .266/.313/.391, while Cain in his first 225 games hit .266/.318/.380. However, it must be noted that Hunter's first 241 games came while he was 21-24 years old. Cain on the other hand was 24-27 during his first 225 games. By the time Hunter hit the age of 27, he had raised his career line to .266/.316/.456 and had posted three straight seasons of 3.5 bWAR or greater.

I'm not saying that Lorenzo Cain can't improve with the bat, because I think he can and he will in 2014. However, I don't see him turning in Torii Hunter any time soon. Hopefully for the Royals, Cain can simply get back to the guy he was offensively in 2012. But more importantly, hopefully he can stay on the field this season.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams

Top Defense in Baseball

In last Wednesday's post for MLB.com ranking the top defenses in baseball, Anthony Castrovince anointed the Royals as being better than any other. (If you want to see the rest of the rankings click here. Castrovince points to the Royals not having any defensive liability on the diamond and premium defenders at Catcher, Short Stop, and Left Field. Incredibly, Castrovince didn't even make mention of 2013 Gold Glove winner Eric Hosmer, or stud Lorenzo Cain.

Castrovince is right, the Royals are absolute studs on the defensive side of the game. They figure to be even stronger in 2014 with the additions of Omar Infante at second and Norichika Aoki at right field. It is this defensive prowess that gives me comfort at the loss of Ervin Santana. While the Royals rotation isn't as sexy on paper entering without Santana, I believe that an enormous amount of the 2013 run prevention success should be credited to the defense.

While many projections are calling for the Royals to regress in the win column in 2014, due to regression to the mean of their defensive metrics. I would argue that while the metrics of the Royals defense could regress, the actual performance of defense is something less likely to regress than offensive performance. Whether or not the numbers reflect regression, the 2014 Royals aren't going to go from being a dynamite defensive team to a mediocre defensive team.

The Royals ranked very high in WAR numbers in 2013, perhaps this is because defensive metrics somewhat overvalued the Royals defense. A regression in defensive metrics would mean a regression in WAR totals for players, but the point needs to be made that a regression in a metric statistic does not necessarily equal regression in actual performance. The Royals defensive metrics could be a little worse in 2014 than they were in 2013, but in actuality the defense could be playing just as good or better.

Personally, I don't envision the defense regressing in actuality and so I'm not worried about projections that are calling for a regression in defensive numbers. All statistics have variability, but unlike hitting, there is much less randomness involved in fielding a baseball. For this reason, I would expect projection systems to underrate the Royals this offseason.

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Covering Ground

"The Royals outfield defense did experience an improvement during the 2013 season. Their sharp fly balls (balls in the air between 2.5 and 4 seconds) Out% in 2012 was 46%. Over the first two months of the 2013 season it was similar with a 47.4% value. Then strong-armed, but slow-footed Jeff Francoeur was released in the middle of June. From July on, the Royals sharp fly ball value jumped to 52.7%." - Royal Review (Article can be read here.)

I don't think it was any coincidence that while Francoeur was on the roster, the Royals were 37-41 and following his release, the Royals went 49-35 the rest of the way. Last offseason, the Royals brought in fly ball pitchers. A strategy that makes sense given the spaciousness of the outfield at Kauffman Stadium. However, this is only half the equation. Without a sterling defense to chase down those balls, the combination of a spacious outfield and a subpar outfield defense is a death sentence.

This is a huge reason for why I am so excited about the addition of Norichika Aoki, who like Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, and Jarrod Dyson, can cover some ground in the outfield. Entering the offseason, I was afraid that in the Royals perpetual quest for power, they would discount this particular advantage and bring in another slow-footed bopper to play right field.

One of the beauties of baseball is that every team plays their home games in a unique park. Obviously, some parks are more haphazard than others, but teams that can take advantage of their home parks can also reap the benefits. By taking this route,  I hope that the Royals have finally come to the realization of the type of team it takes to win at Kauffman Stadium. I also hope that not only can the Royals continue to take advantage of this factor, but that they can expand upon it in 2014.

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Royals add to Outfield "Depth"

The Kansas City Royals added another piece to the Omaha Storm Chasers outfield today when they announced the signing of former Royal great Endy Chavez to a Minor League deal.

Chavez has played in 974 games at the Major League level. Over that time he has hit .269/.286/.333 but has received enormous praise for his glove work. In fact, Chavez may lay claim to the greatest catch in MLB postseason history. If you don't remember it, you can view it here.

Just a few days ago, I wrote a few paragraphs regarding the type of outfielder the Royals could target to complement Jeff Francoeur. I talked about a left handed hitter, or at least a guy that could eventually partner in platoon and also a guy that was very good defensively, so that if he didn't hit, he could at least offer some upgrade in the form of his glove. On the surface it appears that the left handed Endy Chavez fits that exact mold. However, a closer examination would reveal that Chavez isn't quite the answer that one might have hoped.

While Endy Chavez was an absolute stud defensively for a four year period from 2006-09, his defense has sunk to just slightly above average over the past couple of seasons. Also, despite being left handed, Chavez has never displayed much in the way of a platoon advantage and his .676 career OPS against right handers is almost identical to the .675 he posts against southpaws.

Ultimately, the signing was just a Minor League deal and you will never hear me criticize a Minor League free agent signing. There is no point. The risk is so insignificant that there isn't any reason for people to be critical of these types of additions. My only point, is that Chavez doesn't fill the role that I have been advocating the Royals to attempt to fill. This doesn't mean I don't like the addition from a depth standpoint, merely that I believe Kansas City should continue to search for a lefty outfielder that could complement Frenchy on the Major League roster. I do not think Chavez is that guy.

As of now, the Royals are likely out on any other Minor League additions in the outfield department. They already have Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, Francoeur and Jarrod Dyson for the Major League roster, David Lough fighting for the 5th outfield spot and Xavier Nady, Willy Taveras, and now Chavez on Minor League deals. Basically as of now they have nine players between the outfields of Kansas City and Omaha. The Royals don't necessarily need to, but I still believe it makes sense to add one more outfielder on a Major League deal for 2013, if the right player presents himself. With Cain's injury history, Francoeur's poor performance, and some question marks that still surround Dyson, depth could be extremely important.

Royal Rewind Wrap Up (10-22-12)

Yesterday as I was flipping through channels and trying to ignore the "must watch" TV of the third and final Presidential Debate, I came across "Royal Rewind" on Fox Sports Midwest.  It had already been going on for a half hour or so, but I caught most of the last half.  Here are some thoughts by a few Royals personnel from the Royal Rewind.  I am only paraphrasing what they said.

Ned Yost

• Losing Paulino and Duffy hurt the most. Rotation would hinge around those guys and both were doing great at time they got hurt.

Although Felipe Paulino was pitching like an "ace" before he got hurt, Danny Duffy wasn't pitching exceptional.  Obviously, losing those two pitchers hurt the rotation badly, but one could also make an argument that losing Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez for the first half of the season was just as devastating. Oh and we were playing Yuniesky Betancourt.

• Moose has improved, gold glove caliber third baseman. Production was pretty good for first full year in big leagues.

Mike Moustakas has improved, especially on defense.  He led all 3B in UZR in 2012 at 16.8. This mark put him ahead of the likes of David Wright, and Adrian Beltre.  Moose was also 2nd among 3B in the Majors in UZR/150 at 15.2 only behind David Wright at 16.8.  Moose was hot the first half of the season where he slugged .490 and hit 15 long balls.  Post All-Star Break he was awful. He had an OPS of .586 with a putrid 5 homers.  Don't get me wrong, I love Moustakas, and I still think in terms of his first year he had a real solid year overall.  But if the Royals want to compete for division championships Moose (or Hoz) will both have to be All-Star caliber players in my opinion.

• Hoz really struggled

Boy did he.  Eric Hosmer was incredibly tough to watch most of the year; and not just at the plate.  He was hard to watch on defense as well, thanks to his windmill digging style and the tendency to fling the ball across the field.  Like Moustakas, Hosmer will have to become an All-Star caliber player in order for the Royals to compete year in and year out.

• Ryan Lefebvre asked Ned something along the lines of it was as simple as starting pitching for the Royals to become a contender.
• Ned: "It's that simple really" Experience is extremely valuable and core is set on the field (lineup).
• Bullpen is efficient, need a couple starters and we should be in good shape.

Is it as simple as SP? Well in some ways yes it is.  We desperately need 2 or 3 starters that can pitch somewhat like Jeremy Guthrie did for the Royals, or even Luis Mendoza.  Luke Hochevar should not be in the rotation next year. Period.  I know I'm not the only fan who is saying this, in fact, its most likely a choir of Royals fans saying this.  I still think there is more to the Royals competing, and that is what I said earlier: Moustakas and Hosmer living up to star potential. Or at least one of them.

Steve Physioc

• Holland was fantastic and has makeup and mentality to be a closer

I agree, he looked great. Love his strikeout ability.

• Guthrie raised the entire rotation up, Mendoza pitched better (when Guthrie came) and Chen pitched better too.

Guthrie raised the rotation up because he pitched very well, Mendoza was consistently slightly above average and Bruce Chen was terrible for the most part, I don't get the love for Chen.

Rex Hudler

• Bruce Chen set the tone for rotation
• Led the entire season
• "Raise the Roof in 13"

Oh Rex. Chen really led the staff all year with his 5.07 ERA and becoming the human launching pad by giving up 33 dingers on the year. You amaze me Rex.

Much Better than .500

In the Kansas City Star this morning we learned that manager Ned Yost believes this team will be much better than .500 in 2012.

"Yost points to upgrades in the rotation (acquiring Jonathan Sanchez in a trade with San Francisco and retaining Bruce Chen) and the bullpen (signing two-time All-Star Jonathan Broxton) as further reasons to expect major on-field improvement." -Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star

Just as some food for thought here's a few table displaying some various WARs values of last year's players and this years. I chose to use Wood in the first set, because if Crow were to stay in the rotation, I believe Wood would be the most likely to lose his roster spot.

For the weighted averages, I applied a 50% weight to last season, 30% to 2010, and 20% for 2009. Obviously some players didn't play in each of these season so they were assigned a value of 0.



For this set I used Aaron Crow. I believe that if the Royals do transition him to the rotation, it will likely result in a step back, meaning he would spend time in Omaha developing as a starter. This would mean Broxton would take Crow's spot on the big league team for the time being.



I think the Royals are definitely buying potential here. The potential in future success for the players on the right are likely higher than the players on the left. However, as you can see these moves definitely don't make the Royals obviously better for 2012 and there is the possibility that by investing into potential the Royals could actually take a step back this upcoming season.

Poll Results: How Will Royals Acquire Starter?

In the latest Royal Revival poll I asked How the Royals will acquire their front line starter? Here are the results:

They won't acquire one - 14 votes (18%)
Trade - 39 votes (54%)
Free Agency - 11 votes (14%)
Posting System - 10 votes (13%)

Earlier today CBS Sports predicted the Royals to land C.J. Wilson for 5 years and $80 million. Later ESPN reported that the Royals had been in discussions regarding Jair Jurrjens. Trade talks involved Wil Myers and Lorenzo Cain.

Personally I don't think the Royals would move Myers unless for a legitimate number 1. Jurrjens absolutely doesn't do it for me in that regard. However, if the Royals could acquire Jurrjens for Lorenzo Cain and a couple of lower level guys and the Royals could find an explanation for Jurrjens dip in velocity in 2011, I would consider the deal.

Jurrjens improves the rotation, that is clear. However, I don't believe he is the game changer the Royals are looking for. Due to this reason I wouldn't include any of the system's elite prospects to bring Jurrjens to Kansas City.

It wouldn't be the end of the world for the Royals to stand pat this off season. It isn't what the fans want, but it would allow the organization another year to evaluate what they have. Also, the Royals wouldn't have to overspend on the trade or free agent markets when they are likely not quite ready to contend anyway.

Don't force your hand and hurt yourself long term. The organization has made it this far and put themselves in a good position through patience and faith. Don't blow that now.

One Season Post Greinke

Yesterday morning I received the following text from a friend and fellow Royals' diehard:

"Now that the Brewers are in the NLCS and Zack Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt are doing well, would you reassess the trade? Jeremy Jeffress and Lorenzo Cain hardly saw time and Alcides Escobar is really all we had to show for it."

I told my friend that instead of attempting to answer this question in a text, I would reply to him in the form of a blog post, so here we go.

Before saying anything else, at the time of the trade I commented that there is no way Yuniesky Betancourt should be the starting shortstop for a team expecting to win rings. Now though, the Brewers are doing everything they can to prove me wrong. Betanourt, despite posting a .252/.271/.381 line, has retained the starting shortstop job throughout the season.

In the playoffs Betancourt has upped that line to .278/.316/.444 and has came up with a couple of timely hits. With that being said I don't believe that Betancourt's line in any way could make this trade look worse from a Royals perspective. The fact that the Brewers are in the NLCS seems to have come in spite of Yuniesky Betancourt not as a result of his performance.

Zack Greinke on the other has been huge in the Brewers' magical run this season. His era is 3.83 and he has a 16-6 record. But looking even closer he has posted the highest K rate of his career at 10.54, with a walk rate of just 2.36. His xFIP is 2.56 and it wouldn't be hard to make the argument that this is the best season of his career outside of 2009.

Really though Greinke is doing exactly what we expected him to do this season, dominate. Well until the postseason, where he has had trouble staying low in the zone and has become a bit home run prone.

So what about for the Royals? As my friend stated Jeffress and Cain hardly saw time. This is true. Jeffress's stock definitely took a hit as he proved ineffective in the Major League pen and after transitioning to the rotation in Northwest Arkansas saw his control totally fall apart.

Jeffress's stuff is still there and I expect him to refine his command enough to be a useful piece in a Big League pen. However, his season was definitely a big disappointment.

Cain on the other hand did nothing to cause his stock to drop. He didn't receive hardly any big league time, because of the unexpectedly outstanding play of Melky Cabrera, not because he under performed.

In fact, with another season in the books I'm much more excited about Lorenzo Cain then I was at the time of the trade. Reports are his defense was absolutely spectacular in Omaha, all while hitting .312/.380/.497 with 16 home runs and 16 steals.

The outfield's performance in 2011 was obviously a huge plus for the Royals. They now have four viable solutions entering 2012. Should they trade Cabrera, Cain can step in and if they don't they can have depth while also controlling inventory and pushing Cain's arbitration and free agency back another season.

My friend is correct in stating that Alcides Escobar was all we had to show for the trade in 2011. Escobar was excellent defensively and thanks to an incredibly hot streak in the middle of the season, was passable on the offensive side of things. Moving forward Escobar has provided the Royals with at least a temporary solution at short stop and if the offense can continue to progress he could be a cornerstone.

Of course there is one more piece to this trade that has been totally forgotten here. This isn't the first time that I have discussed this trade with a friend and they have forgotten about the Royals' fourth piece: Jake Odorizzi.

Out of all the players involved in the trade, Odorizzi raised his stock more than anyone in 2011. If he can fix his problem with elevating his pitches in the zone he will be a front of the rotation guy in short order. Odorizzi is on the short list of prospects that can be argued for the top spot in the system.

At the time of the trade I believed that it could truly work out great for both parties. It was obvious the Royals HAD to move Greinke. Shelving a pitch in mid-August, threatening to no show for Spring Training, and who knows what else behind close doors. He had to be moved.

The trade was made by the Brewers to better contend in 2011 and 2012. The Trade was made by the Royals to better contend in 2013 and on. Obviously the Brewers should look like they have won the deal after 2011. But nothing that happened in 2011 would suggest that the deal is any worse for the Royals moving forward.

Major League Baseball trades are designed to be wins for both parties. It isn't fantasy football when one guy/girl is most likely getting ripped off when the deal occurs. Just because the trade has worked out awesomely for the Brewers, doesn't mean that it can't wind up being a win for Kansas City as well. It is simply way to early to tell. For now though, the trade looks just as good from Kansas City's perspective as it did when it was completed.

Francoeur Extended

In case you haven't heard or didn't see it coming from miles away the Royals elected to extend Jeff Francoeur earlier this morning. Francoeur was the only of the three Royals outfielders that weren't already under team control for next season. Considering management's infatuation with him, the fact that Frenchy is having a good season by league standards, and how Francoeur clearly would love to be back in Kansas City for Mission 2012.

Francoeur, who will make $2.5 million this season, had a mutual option for 2012 for $4 million. Now though he is signed to a two year extension that will be worth a total of $13.5 million. Is anyone really surprised?

So what does this extension mean? First let's just examine if Francouer is worth the amount of money the Royals will be paying him over the next couple of seasons. At this point in time, the fine people at Fangraphs believe that each Win Above Replacement is worth about $4.4 million (roughly).

So far this season according to Fangraphs Jeff Francoeur is worth 2.3 WAR, meaning that he has been worth $10.1 million on the open market. Obviously these figures are debatable. However, Fangraphs does its best to provide a dollar figure for player's values and that is the best we have to go on at the moment.

So if this market value continue to hold true, Jeff Francoeur will need to produce 3.1 WAR over the next two seasons in order to achieve fair value for the contract. Over his career Frenchy has averaged being worth 1.5 WAR a season. However, over the past three seasons that figure drops to just 1.1 WAR.

As Joe Pawlikowski displays in this article, Jeff Francoeur numbers this season do not appear to be an outlier compared to the rest of his career. Instead his offensive numbers seem to have remained consistent while the rest of the league has regressed. What this has done for Francoeur is turn his below average offensive production and turned it into above average. When you consider that Francoeur is twenty-seven and entering his prime years it isn't outrageous at all to suggest for the next couple of seasons he could at least be as good offensively as he has been in 2011.

On the low end, let's say Frenchy regresses to his three year average in WAR production and only contributes a total of 2.2 WAR over the next two seasons. If that happens he will be worth a 9.7 million dollar deal. Should he contribute 4.6 WAR and keep up his play at 2011 standards, he would be worth $20.2 million.

I suppose this is a long way of saying that based on the figures for the contract Jeff Francoeur could very well wind up being paid more than what he is worth. However, just as likely he could be a bargain for the next couple of seasons. I believe Rany said it best after the extension today (and I am paraphrasing here) how often can a time sign an outfielder entering his prime with the kind of tools that Jeff Francoeur has for this kind of money?

I am not willing to call this a bargain for the Royals, but it would appear that they have paid pretty fair market price for their charismatic right fielder. If you are a believer in the intangibles that Francoeur brings to the clubhouse than you also have to consider those benefits as well.

So what is the opportunity cost here for the Royals? Well considering that the Royals and Alex Gordon have already stated that an extension for the pair is a goal in the offseason, it probably means that an extension for Melky is very unlikely.

At this point Gordon and Frenchy are both under control through the 2013 seasons. Melky is under control for 2012. Is it even feasible that the Royals totally commit to their current outfield through 2013? I can't see it happening. Not this offseason at least.

So what the Royals have done is elected to commit to Francoeur long term, while going year to year with Melky. Melky by the way has been a vastly superior player to Frenchy this season. Cabrera has contributed a WAR of 3.6 and has played a premium position.

Even though Cabrera has been a better player and signing for the Royals this season, was there anyone that thought he was more likely to be extended than Francoeur? I doubt it. Cabrera's ability to play center and switch hit coupled with the fact that he has had a better season than Francoeur should have made him a better fit to sign to a multi-year deal.

In the end, Dayton Moore and company knew that they wanted Francoeur back and quite frankly they may not have been able to do that on a one year deal. By selecting Francoeur as the man to receive an extension they were able to keep the entire outfield intact.

The Royals could have very easily picked up their half of Francoeur's mutual option. If he would have accepted, it would have been a great deal. If he would have declined the Royals could then have offered him arbitration. If Francoeur would have accepted that once again there is only a small financial commitment and it is just for one season. If he would have declined arbitration the Royals could have patted themselves on the back, been proud of their thrifty signing, and hoped that Francoeur obtained Type B free agent status and netted them a supplemental draft choice.

If the Royals would have taken this route they could have shifted Melky Cabrera over to right field next season and hand the centerfield job to Lorenzo Cain. This wouldn't have been a bad route at all. Truthfully I would have preferred the Royals take this route.

What this signing also means is that the Royals don't view Wil Myers as a guy that will be ready by mid 2012. There is nothing wrong with this and it definitely isn't a shot at Wil Myers. But what it means is that Myers should now be afforded at least another season or a season and a half in the minors before he will be able to really push for a big league job.

By signing Francoeur the Royals are able to add to their inventory now and in the future. Obviously they wanted Francoeur back in 2012, and without at least a two year extension they probably couldn't have been sure that he would return. My unimpressive and boring conclusion to all of this is that like the Francoeur signing last winter, this signing isn't a detrimental move. It is predictable. It does offer some positives, but these are about as high end as the potential negatives.

It isn't the route I would have taken. But it isn't a route that will hurt the Royals either. But when the Royals resign Jeff Francoeur to another two years in 2013, it will be a different story.

Trade Deadline Wrap Up

I realize that I'm a bit late to the party when it comes to offering my thoughts on the trade deadline, but here I am anyway and I have something to say. People need chill out with the horrible deadline talk.

To be clear I want to see Lorenzo Cain in centerfield for the Royals. But we need to keep in mind that he isn't an elite guy. Not the kind of player that you have to clear a spot for at least. For that reason the Royals shouldn't just ship off an outfielder for scraps in order to make room for the man.

Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur are both having great years. Cabrera can, without a doubt, be brought back next season simply by offering him arbitration, which he will be required to accept. Jeff Franceur has a mutual option and I expect both sides to exercise it.

So both players should be back next season and should be key components in Mission 2012. I realize that entering the season neither played a role for the Mission, but make no mistake both are deserving of spots now. If the Royals are lucky enough next season to not have an outfielder go down with injury and the outfield performs like it has in 2011, then Lorenzo Cain spends the season as a fourth outfielder in Kansas City or the everyday centerfielder in Omaha and in 2013 the job is his.

If Cabrera or Francoeur regress or go down with injury, Cain assumes the role as the everyday centerfielder and the Royals don't miss a beat. Given that neither Cabrera or Francoeur would be under contract after the season the problem would work itself out. If both perform well and the Royals don't contend, well they'll have another deadline to try and make a deal.

It seems as though the fanbase has widely accepted the youth movement and bought into the farm system so much that they are missing the point in this case. The point of having a great farm system is to turn the crop of young talent into a competitive team. The point isn't to fill the roster with the hot prospect every time he declares himself ready, not when you already have a contributor in place at the Major League level.

The Royals have found a good starting centerfielder in Melky Cabrera. Jeff Francoeur has also put together an excellent season, though many Royals' fans are still unwilling to admit it. If the goal is to win a division in 2012, then why would you sell off a proven commodity for scraps just so that you can give an unproven commodity a chance? Not to mention the predicament you get yourself in should an outfielder get hurt or not perform.

Now we don't know what Dayton Moore was offered for either of his outfielders. But what we do know is that the market quickly became saturated with quality guys. Colby Rasmus, Carlos Beltran, Hunter Pence, and Michael Bourn were all dealt, not to mention B.J. Upton appeared to be on the block for the week leading to the deadline.

What the Royals needed was a mid rotation starter to make a deal worthwhile. Francoeur was never going to net that and with the outfield depth on the market we knew that Cabrera wouldn't either. The Royals made the right decision to hold on to the outfielders. Some fans just won't accept it.

As for the pitching side of things, the Royals didn't make any trades either. The market for back rotation starters was almost nonexistent so Dayton Moore held on to his two elderly lefties. Both of which are here are on one year deals and will be gone at the end of the season. I don't advocate resigning either.

Right now Chen may be able to net the Royals a Supplemental pick in the Rule IV draft, but he will need a strong finish to the season and even then a team would have to sign him to a Major League deal for 2012.

Jeff Francis, on the other hand, has been a good innings eater for the Royals but he is no better than a back end guy at this point in his career. The way I see it the Royals rotation for 2012 goes like this: Paulino, Duffy, Hochevar, Montgomery or Crow, plus a free agent signing. Either the Royals bring in a back end guy like Francis, or they go for a front of the rotation guy. They have the money, so if they want to contend in 2012 a front end guy is what we need.

It would have been nice to grab a high upside low level prospect for Francis, but I am not sure that it was even possible. Like I said the market was virtually nonexistent so I can't blame Dayton Moore for holding on to an innings eater in an attempt to take some stress off of the pen for the last two months of the season.

Had we dealt Francis it would have meant a stint in the rotation by Vin Mazzaro, given Davies shoulder inflammation. Even without the trade, I'm sure point we'll see Mazzaro again, but him going four innings a start isn't what our bullpen needs after a taxing season. Hopefully the next time we see him will just be as a spot start and nothing more.

Obviously it would have been great if the Royals could have fleeced a desperate team and brought in a near Major League ready starter with front end potential. But it didn't happen. The Royals did an excellent job in free agency last winter and found two quality outfielders. Now they are going to hang on to them and hopefully they can perform to the same standard in 2012. If they can then the signings in themselves pushed contention forward and that has always been the goal.

B.J. Upton Rumor and Centerfield Thoughts

A very interesting nugget of trade rumor fell from the sky today when Joel Sherman stated that the Royals "have an interest in B.J. Upton with an eye on contending next year."

Centerfield has always seemed to be a position of critical importance for Dayton Moore (as it rightfully should, especially given Kauffman Stadium's huge alleys). He once traded for Coco Crisp. A season later he signed Scott Podsednik as a stop gap.

Obviously he knew Podsednik wouldn't be the guy once the Royals reached contention again so he flipped him at the deadline. This offseason though the Royals found themselves in a spot where they weren't necessarily expecting to contend. But if the right solution presented itself, the could acquire a piece that could be part of contention once it occurred.

When Justin Upton was rumored to be on the block, we heard that the Royals were one of the teams with an interest in acquiring the 5 tool star. Around the same time the Royals were also linked to the Florida Marlins' Cameron Maybin just before he was traded to San Diego. Both of these players were guys that would be under team control for multiple seasons, were once billed as top prospects, and could cover some serious ground in centerfield.

Eventually the Royals settled on what appeared to be another stop gap in Melky Cabrera. But Dayton Moore talked about how the Royals would also control him for 2012. Of course we thought it was just lip service. I can't blame Royals fans for not wanting to imagine Melky Cabrera as the team's centerfielder for Mission 2012, considering Melky's dreadful 2010 campaign.

A few days after signing the Melkman the Royals acquired another centerfielder in the Zack Greinke trade. Lorenzo Cain had long been coveted by the Royals brass. He nearly was acquired for Brian Bannister a long time ago before Bannister's career came to a screeching halt.

Finally it seemed that the Royals had found their man for the future. Now it was just a matter of Melky performing enough to net some decent value for him in a trade. At the latest we thought Cain would be assuming fulltime centerfield job on August 1st. Allowing him two full months of at bats in the American League.

But a funny thing happened, Melky tore it up and Dayton Moore began to talk about how he's reluctant to trade either of the Royals "stopgap" outfielders. Of course there are fans, myself included, that want to see Cain in the Majors. But now Melky seems to have positioned himself as part of the future. At least for next season. Unless the Royals are overwhelmed by an offer.

If Cain doesn't get called up to play everyday for the last two months of the season. It will be frustrating. But it won't be a tragedy. It isn't as though Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur are one year guys stealing at bats. They could both be a part of the next winning Royals team.

If the Royals believe in Mission 2012 they should go with the best team they can field. Perhaps it isn't the wisest move to simply get rid of an above average Major League outfielder in favor for a guy never considered elite. Even if that guy is tearing it up in Omaha (at a park that highly favors right handed hitters).

But now we hear this rumor regarding B.J. Upton. Let me begin by saying that I love this rumor in principle. I love that the Royals would be willing to make a move to acquire a Big League piece that it feels would push them over the top. However, I don't believe that Upton is the guy.

Of course the ceiling on Upton is limitless. But we shouldn't forget the basics. First, Upton is only under team control through 2012. He has a career triple slash of .256/.341/.411. But over the last three seasons his slash is down to .239/.318/.403. Given the decline in offense production league wide his is basically an average offensive contributor.

Of course there is also the belief that Upton is a top flight baserunner and defender. For his career he has at times shown that this is the truth. But according to fangraphs both his baserunning and fielding have contributed negative values for his WAR in 2011.

Upton is currently having his worst season as a professional and it seems strange that Sternberg and Friedman would be willing to sell so low on such a potentially valuable commity. Given how much respect I have for the Rays front office I don't believe they are willing to sell low and it is for this reason that I believe the Royals shouldn't take the risk.

The Rays are rumored to be asking for top pitching prospects in return for Upton. The Royals definitely have the Minor league talent and depth to pull off a deal, but I don't think this is the player the Royals should take the risk on. Especially when you consider that pitching is the Royals biggest need moving forward.

I would rather the Royals keep Cabrera in centefield and hang on to the prospects. I would rather see Cain finally get the everyday job if the Royals can get a fair return for either Cabrera or Francoeur.

But if the Royals are interested in B.J. Upton would it be safe to assume that they would also kick the tires on Hunter Pence or Colby Rasmus. Both have been discussed in rumors this July. Given Dayton Moore's desire to upgrade center I can't imagine that he would at least make a courtesy call on the subject.

Pence of course would be a huge net for the Royals. He would be under team control for three more seasons and could be the stud the Royals need at the top of their lineup.

Rasmus could be a Royal through 2014. While he has posted similar numbers as B.J. Upton he would seem to be more appealing giving his controlled years and age. He is having a down year and has never seemed to truly belong in St. Louis.

I want to emphasize that I don't think Upton would be a bad pickup. On the contrary his reward is so great that the move would probably get many Royals fans giddy with excitement for 2012. But this is primarily because Upton is so overrated considering what he has actually done as a Big Leaguer. But I do beleive that teams value prospects a bit too much in the current state of the game.

I'd love for the Royals to make a move for a premier Big Leaguer. We have the pieces to do it. If the Rays are willing to sell low I wouldn't fault the Royals for pouncing. But if the Rays want multiple top prospects, the Royals would be best served to look elsewhere.

Quite frankly the Rays front office is too good for me to think that the Royals could get Upton at fair value for what he is right now. If the Royals acquire him it will likely be because they paid for upside. Upside that looks like it may never be reached.

Add On I have just been informed that ESPN Insider reports the Royals want Upton and pitching from Rays. This is interesting because you would think that Upton would be the only thing going to Kansas City in a trade. Perhaps this means that the Royals are offering a big league piece as well. Perhaps Joakim Soria or Billy Butler? Both would be great fits in Tampa.

The Cabrera Conundrum

"Cabrera will ideally play at a decent level for the first few months of the season and then the Royals will have an appealing chip at the deadline."

That's what I said about Cabrera on December 14th. Obviously I was really making a bold statement at the time. What I didn't forsee was Cabrerra playing at such a high level that it would be possible for the Royals to not receive an offer worth trading him. This is because I assumed that even if he played well, he wouldn't possibly play well enough to warrant a spot in the team's future.

But what has happened is that Melky Cabrera has posted a career year in 2011. He is currently hitting .296/.333/.459, has posted an wRC+ of 121 and the sixth best WAR among centerfielders with a 3.3 mark. He has been near average when it comes to defensive evaluations and his arm has been an absolute weapon.

The Royals have Cabrera signed a $1.25 million deal for 2011, so there is no pressing need to unload salary. But because of the way he has played this season the fact that he is under team control through 2012 has now became a much more important piece of information.

The most interesting part of this whole discussion is that the Royals have another outfielder that could be back in 2012 that is also exceeding expectations this season: Jeff Francoeur. Francoeur hasn't been nearly as strong as Melky has thus far, but if Royals fans had to bet on which would be back in 2012, I think virtually everyone would wager that Frenchy would be the guy to stay.

What is also critical is that the Royals have a guy in triple-A that absolutely needs to be in the Majors collecting at bats. Lorenzo Cain cameover from the Brewers and became the centerfielder for the future and thus far has done nothing to depress that belief. He has a .319/.385/.525 in Omaha and reports are that he makes spectacular defensive plays every night.

What I think is interesting is how Royals fans have a player performing at a high level in centerfield that could be back next season, yet most fans would prefer to hand the position over to a prospect. Yes the upside is higher, yes Cabrera is performing at a career high level. However, this is interesting nonetheless. Do you think that by next season Cain will be a top ten centerfielder? Because so far Melky has.

I want to see Cain playing centerfield. But Cabrera has performed at such a high level that the Royals absolutely not trade him unless they receive a deal that they believe fair. Cabrerra isn't like Wilson Betemit. The Royals don't have to deal him. For that reason the haul that the Royals bring in for Cabrerra should present enough upside for it to be obvious that it was the right decision.

The Phillies are rumored to have traded names with the Royals for Cabrera. What guys do you like? Who would it take for you to be happy with the deal? What kind of prospects?

But what if the Royals can't get fair value for Cabrera? What do you think they should do? What is the solution? Trade Francoeur? What if that isn't a possibility? Do you accept what you can get for Cabrera and move on? Or do you stick with your current outfield?

Let me know what you think Royal Nation. Hopefully this is only the first case of the Royals have multiple Major League ready players at one position.

Poll Results: Next Royal to be Called Up

Royal Revival recently posed the question "Who will be the next Royal to make their American League debut this season?" Here were our results:

Lorenzo Cain- 47%
Johnny Giavotella- 47%
Mike Montgomery- 4%

David Lough and Clint Robinson didn't receive any votes.

Time to get Frustrated?

Here we go again… It is June 20th and once again our beloved Royals find themselves in the cellar of not just the Central but also the entire American League. Of course now is the time for fans to flip out and complain about what little progress this team has made.


Fans have been told wait for next year for too long, and they are beginning to grow tired of it. I don’t blame them. But for those that are suggesting that the Royals could have prevented this in the offseason, they need to stop and consider reason.

You can’t in one breath complain about Lorenzo Cain being blocked in center by a free agent stop gap, and then in the next breath complain that the Royals didn’t sign a player to man second base. You have to chose one way or another or else you are someone who is going to complain regardless.

Either the Royals should have signed the stopgaps and stick with them until the deadline, while they keep the seat warm for the prospects in Omaha. Or the Royals shouldn’t have messed with either. What isn’t fair is to complain about the Royals being in last place because they didn’t sign free agents and then go off and bash the Jeff Francis or Jose Guillen signing.

Obviously there were other guys available this offseason, but there was no reason at all for the Royals to drop boatloads of cash on an aging veteran. Thankfully it seems they have learned from that mistake when they signed Jose Guillen to a three year thirty-six million dollar deal.

People are glad that the Royals aren’t blocking their own prospects, but some are also complaining that they should have added veterans to some of the positions that aren’t playing up to snuff, particularly second base. The thing that has to be remembered is that literally every position on the roster besides catcher could have a prospect emerge as major league ready this season.

No matter where the Royals spent the money they ran the risk of blocking a prospect, unless that money was spent on one or even two year deals for catcher or the rotation. One year deals aren’t the issue here though, because they are so easy to flip at the deadline and they involve very little commitment by the team.

So if fans are wanting the Royals to add more serious players to make them contenders this year, it is just ludicrous to think that it could have been done without shelling out multi-year deals and huge bucks. I mean what pitcher could the Royals have added without doing that? Carl Pavano? I’ll take Jeff Francis and Bruce Chen.

A local radio host openly complained today about how the Royals went into the season with Chris Getz and Mike Aviles competing for the job at second base. First off it didn’t seem that ridiculous in the offseason that one of the two could be a solid contributor. Secondly, Giavotella is waiting in the wings and after tearing through the second half of last season and the Arizona Fall League was knocking at the door. Finally, I question anyone’s baseball understanding if they really believe that the Royals could have became contenders in 2011 if they would have just spent a few million for a second baseman.

The same show host, then went on to talk about the rotation holes and how the Royals should have spent big bucks this offseason in that area. But my question is who should they have signed? What pitcher on the market could the Royals have brought in that could have made them contenders in 2011 and would have fit into their long term plans?

Also, we shouldn’t forget that heading into the season the Royals had four of the top starting pitching prospects in baseball, all of which could have been ready for their debuts within a year’s time. When you add in Aaron Crow and a couple of the lower tier guys, then it is easy to see why the Royals proffered the stop gaps in the rotation for this year anyway.

What the Royals didn’t foresee was Montgomery and Dwyer both struggling immensely and John Lamb having to undergo season ending Tommy John surgery.

It is much wiser for the Royals to wait out this season and feel for what they have before making the moves on the market. Next offseason the Royals will have had another year of evaluating their prospects, some even at the highest level. Not to mention that the starting pitching class for this offseason is much more impressive than last.

The Royals will have money to spend and should they play it right in the offseason, could very easily position themselves as favorites for the AL Central entering 2012. It is frustrating that once again we find ourselves in last place. But sometimes one must take a small step back in order to take a giant leap forward.

Where can we Upgrade?

So with the Royals surprise start, I have began to think about what it means in terms of the prospects. What should the Royals do if they stay in contention? Stick with the Major Leaguers? Promote players that could help now? Trade them? Or not let the state of the Major League team affect the plan?

I don't want to get into that discussion right now, but I do want to think what positions the Royals could upgrade by promotions from within. So let's look at the weaknesses of the Major League roster.

1. Catcher

Unfortunately I see know potential solutions at the catcher position right now. No prospects are going to be ready midseason, although at some point Jason Kendall will return from injury. This would probably mean that Pena is the odd man out and the Royals would lose all offensive potential at the position.

2. First Base

Kila Ka'aihue at this point is not getting it done. Through the first fifteen games he's hitting .174/.304/.283 and with Hosmer tearing it up in Omaha an upgrade is readily available. I believe Ka'aihue will have until early June to get something going, but if he hasn't by then it will likely be Eric Hosmer's time to shine.

3. Second Base

Should Getz falter with the bat second base is another production that could be upgraded as the season progresses. This could occur in one of two ways. The most likely probably involves a Mike Moustakas promotion and Mike Aviles sliding over across the diamond. But the other solution involves the promotion of Johnny Giavotella. Giavotella's defense is much improved and after tearing up both the Texas League and the Arizona Fall League a season ago he is off to a hot start in Omaha.

4. Third Base

In case you haven't heard the Royals have the top third base prospect in all of baseball. He is in triple-A now and a year ago he led minor league baseball in home runs. He also recorded more extra base hits than strikeouts. Mike Moustakas could provide a big boost to the middle of the order should he hit the ground running on his promotion.

5. Centerfield

Right now most fans and Kansas City media treat Melky Cabrerra like he is off to a good start. Personally I'm not a fan of sub .300 on base percentages. Most fans would suggest Lorenzo Cain as an upgrade but I'd also like to throw David Lough's name into the mix. He has a great blend of tools and if he can outproduce Cain over the next couple of months then I'd like to see him granted the first opportunity.

6. Rotation

Here is where the Royals could receive the biggest boost this season. Right now the Royals have three rotation spots that have produced consistently but they could look to bolster the rotation by promoting Mike Montgomery and/or Danny Duffy. If Davies can get it going and be a servicable back end guy then the Royals could add one of the aforementioned prospects and have a decent unit. If they added both and they both perform as they could the rotation could have two of the top young starters in baseball.

The Royals have shocked baseball with their quick start much like they did in 2003. However, unlike that season the Royals could have enough bullets in the minor league gun to reload for a Central title run. Hopefully they can continue to overachieve long enough to find out.