In The Cross Hairs: Melky Cabrera

Let's travel back in time.  Say...four years ago.  I know you don't want to, but it'll be a quick stop.  The Royals of 2010 were a team to forget.  The lineup was abysmal, but honestly, any lineup with Yuniesky Betancourt as the starting shortstop and Jose Guillen sitting in the designated hitter spot hacking away at pitches like a lumberjack will be anything but pretty to watch.  Our future cyborg in left field, Alex Gordon, spent over half the year in Omaha learning the new position he now dominates.  Our shortstop was Yuniesky Betancourt.  Our then Ace, Zack Grienke, had an off year after coming off a dazzling Cy Young Award season in 2009.  Gil Meche, or known to Royal Revival members as the "GILamonster", spent most of the season on the DL with back and shoulder issues.  We had guys in the rotation like Kyle Davies, Sean O'Sullivan, Bryan Bullington, and Anthony Lerew (the guy with the Elvis Presley chops) making starts.  Oh, did I mention Yuniesky Betancourt was our stinking shortstop?

Along with that seemingly endless list of problems, there was the occupancy of center field.  The CF position saw not one, not two, but seven players receive playing time for the Royals.  Those seven: Rick Ankiel (yes, Rick Ankiel), Gregor Blanco (sad face), Willie Bloomquist (Ol' droopy), David DeJesus, Jarrod Dyson (Zoombiya), Mitch Maier (player/coach for NW Arkansas Naturals in 2014), and Scott Podsednik.  Woof.  To top it off, the 2010 Royals employed two managers.  Trey Hillman, who was let go after starting the year 12-23, managed in Kansas City the prior 2 seasons and finished off his tenure with a combined W-L record of 152-207.  Then, Jeff Foxworthy's best friend, Edgar Frederick a.k.a. Ned Yost, steps in to take the reigns.  I can still remember him getting a standing ovation that night when his name was first announced by the legendary Voice of the Royals, Mike McCartney.  Simply put: the 2010 season was poop.

2011 wasn't all that much better, considering the Royals finished fourth in the division with a 71-91 record, but the lineup was shaping into what got Kansas City to the World Series for the first time since we beat the Cardinals in '85.  Alex Gordon played 151 games in his new home of left field that earned him his first of many gold gloves, while hitting .303 with 23 HR.  Newly acquired Jeff Francoeur played right field, hitting .285 with 20 HR and 22 SB.  Our future corner infielders and starting catcher, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Sal Perez, made their debuts that got everyone excited about the future.  Even Lorenzo Cain received a September call-up to give the Royal Nation a brief glimpse into 2012.

One of the key components to 2011 was the signing of free agent CF Melky Cabrera.  The Royals managed to sign Cabrera, 26 years old at the time, to a 1 year $1.25 million deal, mostly because of a disappointing campaign with the Atlanta Braves the year before.  With the Braves, Cabrera hit .255/.317/.354 with just 4 HR and 42 RBI.  What a steal this signing would turn out to be.  Melky, hands down, had the best season of his young career as a Royal.  During his stint in KC, he set career highs in batting average, HR, RBI, R, and SB.  He finished fourth in the American League in hits with 201, which made him just the 6th Royal in franchise history to collect 200 hits in a season.

Photo courtesy of cjonline.com

During the offseason, the Royals needed to trade Cabrera for pitching and to clear the CF spot for Lorenzo Cain to take over.  Kansas City sent Cabrera to San Francisco for pitchers Ryan Verdugo and, excuse me.. I just threw up in my mouth, Jonathon Sanchez.  I'll stop there as far as the trade is concerned.  While in The City by the Bay, Cabrera continued where he left off.  The Melkman earned himself a spot in the starting lineup for the National League in the All-Star game in Kansas City.  He collected two hits, including a 2-run HR, earning him the All-Star MVP award.  His stellar year ended abruptly when MLB slapped him with a 50 game suspension for PED use.  Since then, Melky has been playing for the Toronto Blue Jays.  Last season, he was on his way to another solid year, but was stopped unexpectedly from getting hit by a pitch, fracturing his pinkie.  He ended 2014 with a .301/.351/.458 line with 16 HR and 73 RBI.

Cabrera was one of several free agents who received a Qualifying Offer of a 1 year $15.3 million deal from their respective teams.  According to SportsNet's Shi Davidi, Cabrera and the Blue Jays are "far apart" in contract discussions.  The now 30 year old will likely test the waters of free agency.  If Melky signs elsewhere, the Blue Jays will receive a compensatory draft pick in exchange, so there is a plus to the situation for Toronto. 

A Melkman reunion in Kansas City isn't really seen by many for 2015.  MLB Trade Rumors has predicted a 5 year $70 million deal in the works for the 30 year old switch hitter.  If by happenstance the Royals were to look into Cabrera's services for a second go-around, there may be a very slight issue.  There's no worry about Cabrera having trouble playing the outfield.  Last season, all but three of his 139 games were in the OF.  For most of his career, however, he has certainly avoided RF, but not completely.  If the Royals happen to part ways with DH Billy Butler, which most definitely would be a sad day, Melky could in fact fill Butler's position.  I would not be opposed if he were to see some time in RF, assuming the Royals do not re-sign Nori Aoki.

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Much Better than .500

In the Kansas City Star this morning we learned that manager Ned Yost believes this team will be much better than .500 in 2012.

"Yost points to upgrades in the rotation (acquiring Jonathan Sanchez in a trade with San Francisco and retaining Bruce Chen) and the bullpen (signing two-time All-Star Jonathan Broxton) as further reasons to expect major on-field improvement." -Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star

Just as some food for thought here's a few table displaying some various WARs values of last year's players and this years. I chose to use Wood in the first set, because if Crow were to stay in the rotation, I believe Wood would be the most likely to lose his roster spot.

For the weighted averages, I applied a 50% weight to last season, 30% to 2010, and 20% for 2009. Obviously some players didn't play in each of these season so they were assigned a value of 0.



For this set I used Aaron Crow. I believe that if the Royals do transition him to the rotation, it will likely result in a step back, meaning he would spend time in Omaha developing as a starter. This would mean Broxton would take Crow's spot on the big league team for the time being.



I think the Royals are definitely buying potential here. The potential in future success for the players on the right are likely higher than the players on the left. However, as you can see these moves definitely don't make the Royals obviously better for 2012 and there is the possibility that by investing into potential the Royals could actually take a step back this upcoming season.

Royals acquire Jonathan Sanchez

Less than twenty-four hours after I took a look at Jonathan Sanchez as a potential trade target the Royals acquired him for center fielder Melky Cabrera. In the comments section Slappy even speculated on a possible Cabrera for Sanchez swap. So without further ado let's jump right into this.

If you want to read my concerns with Sanchez please scroll down to the previous post. However, I want to be clear that just because I have concerns regarding Sanchez (especially the decrease in fastball velocity, which in my opinion has caused the enlargement of his other problems) I don't view this as a bad deal. The acquisition is high risk, high reward. If the Royals would have traded six years of Lorenzo Cain I'd likely be feeling much differently, however trading one year of Melky Cabrera for one year of Jonathan Sanchez feels like a win for both sides.

Of course, Melky is coming off the best season of is career. He posted 201 hits, 18 home runs, 87 rbis and a slash of .305/.339/.470. He was a part of one of the most productive outfields in baseball. With that being said Melky is also coming off what you would call a career year. Realistically, how many Royals fans can honestly say they expect similar results in 2012. The Royals are dealing Melky Cabrera at the top of his value, while the Giants are moving Sanchez while his value is likely at an all time low.

It is hard to not like this trade. Despite my concerns with Sanchez, he has shown at the Major League level that he is a mid rotation starter. He is going to be twenty-nine years old, and he boasts a career k-rate of 9.4. It is hard not to be optimistic regarding Sanchez's potential.

In many ways Sanchez is exactly what the Royals were looking for this off season. He requires a very small financial commitment, an estimated $5.2 million in his final year of arbitration. Also, considering the raise Melky was due in arbitration for 2012 this move only adds roughly $1 million to the Royals 2012 payroll.

Sanchez improves the current rotation and if he can reduce his walk rate back down to his career figure of 4.8 from last year's 5.9, he could drastically improve the front of the Royals' rotation.

The Royals' pitching staff will also receive the benefit of what I expect to be an extremely improved outfield defense. It is no secret that Cabrera isn't exactly a dynamo in terms of covering ground in center, but by all accounts Lorenzo Cain is. It seemed all season long reports came in from Omaha that Lorenzo Cain had made another highlight reel play.

The Royals' also will be receiving left handed pitching prospect Ryan Verdugo in the deal. Entering the season Verdugo ranked as the 25th best prospect in the Giants system as judged by Baseball America. Up to 2011, he had been used exclusively from the bullpen. In three seasons he had compiled a 13-1 record, and a 1.75 era. Not to mention 167 strikeouts to 59 walks in 113 innings.

In 2011, the Giants gave Verdugo a shot in Double-A Richmond's rotation. For the year he finished with an 8-6 record and a 4.35 era. His fip came in at just 4.07 thanks to a k-rate of 9.2, and a walk rate of 4.4. In some way he resembles Sanchez. He's a power lefty that racks up huge strikeout numbers, but struggles with command. At first glance he appears to be a "throw in", but with such a propensity for missing bats, I'm taking him very seriously as a left handed relief prospect.

The Royals signed Melky Cabrera last winter for just over $1 million. The move was criticized at the time and just a few days later it drew more criticism when the Royals announced the trade of Zack Greinke. Even after putting up a stellar first half, many Royals fans were infuriated when the Royals elected to hold on to Melky past the trade deadline.

The Royals made a fantastic bargain signing last winter. A year later the Royals needed rotation help and had outfield depth. They dealt from this depth and have clearly improve their rotation. They cashed in on Melky's career year and instead of flipping a guy after his value began to diminish they flipped him at his peak.

Good move for the Royals, let's not stop now.

Pieces in Place

There are three spots in the batting order that traditionally have been viewed as having more importance than any of the others. Dayton Moore and company have on multiple occassions expressed their belief that if you can field a quality leadoff, three hole, and clean up hitter the team can consistentely provide quality offense.

For the first time in the Dayton Moore era we can safely say that the Royals have found answers for each of these three spots. But instead of a persuasive essay to convince you, let's just look at how the bottom of the 9th unfolded last night.

Leading off the bottom of the ninth for the Kansas City Royals number 4. Alex Gordon.

After falling down in the count 0-2 against hard throwing lefty Matt Thornton, Alex did what any good leadoff hitter would do in that situation, he battled back.

95 mph fastball. Foul (0-2)
81 mph slider. Ball (1-2)
96 mph fastball. Foul (1-2)
96 mph fastball. Foul (1-2)
83 mph slider. Ball (2-2)
97 mph fastball. Ball (3-2)

Finally on the ninth pitch of the at bat, Gordon found a pitch that he could do something with and ripped it in between the first and second basemen into right field.

There are two thngs that didn't happen in this at bat that should be noted. First, Gordon laid off the slider in. Up until this season the slider from left handed pitchers was Alex Gordon's biggest and most glaring weakness. The pitch seemed to consistently find the hole in his swing, when time and time again he would show the inability to lay off the pitch and would instead find nothing but air with his swing.

Second, Gordon's stayed agressive throughout the entire at bat. In the past Gordon would often get deep into at bats by taking a passive approach and then eventually this passiveness would do in him, in the form of a called strike three. Now, Gordon is always looking for the right pitch to hit and with his natural pitch recognition abilities is able to work counts, while also not being vulnerable for the called strike three.

Stepping to the Melky Cabrera.

One pitch, one perfect sacrifice. Gordon to second with one out.

Now batting the designated hitter, number 16 Billy Butler.

The White Sox made the smart tactical move and intentionally walked Butler. First and second, one out. Of course unlike in the past the White Sox were forced to pick their poison as opposed to walking the three hitter in order to get to an obviously weaker cleanup man. Finally that leads us to...

Up for the Royals, the first baseman, number 35, Eric Hosmer.

On the second pitch of the at bat, Eric Hosmer did what he does best when he laced a Matt Thornton fastball over left fielder Juan Pierre's head for a game winning double.

The Royals have the pieces in place in the three most critical spots of the lineup for at least the next two seasons. If we can extend Gordon, maybe even we can have those pieces in place for the next four seasons. Either way the Royals could finally have an offense that for the next several years will be a force in the American League Central.

Francoeur Extended

In case you haven't heard or didn't see it coming from miles away the Royals elected to extend Jeff Francoeur earlier this morning. Francoeur was the only of the three Royals outfielders that weren't already under team control for next season. Considering management's infatuation with him, the fact that Frenchy is having a good season by league standards, and how Francoeur clearly would love to be back in Kansas City for Mission 2012.

Francoeur, who will make $2.5 million this season, had a mutual option for 2012 for $4 million. Now though he is signed to a two year extension that will be worth a total of $13.5 million. Is anyone really surprised?

So what does this extension mean? First let's just examine if Francouer is worth the amount of money the Royals will be paying him over the next couple of seasons. At this point in time, the fine people at Fangraphs believe that each Win Above Replacement is worth about $4.4 million (roughly).

So far this season according to Fangraphs Jeff Francoeur is worth 2.3 WAR, meaning that he has been worth $10.1 million on the open market. Obviously these figures are debatable. However, Fangraphs does its best to provide a dollar figure for player's values and that is the best we have to go on at the moment.

So if this market value continue to hold true, Jeff Francoeur will need to produce 3.1 WAR over the next two seasons in order to achieve fair value for the contract. Over his career Frenchy has averaged being worth 1.5 WAR a season. However, over the past three seasons that figure drops to just 1.1 WAR.

As Joe Pawlikowski displays in this article, Jeff Francoeur numbers this season do not appear to be an outlier compared to the rest of his career. Instead his offensive numbers seem to have remained consistent while the rest of the league has regressed. What this has done for Francoeur is turn his below average offensive production and turned it into above average. When you consider that Francoeur is twenty-seven and entering his prime years it isn't outrageous at all to suggest for the next couple of seasons he could at least be as good offensively as he has been in 2011.

On the low end, let's say Frenchy regresses to his three year average in WAR production and only contributes a total of 2.2 WAR over the next two seasons. If that happens he will be worth a 9.7 million dollar deal. Should he contribute 4.6 WAR and keep up his play at 2011 standards, he would be worth $20.2 million.

I suppose this is a long way of saying that based on the figures for the contract Jeff Francoeur could very well wind up being paid more than what he is worth. However, just as likely he could be a bargain for the next couple of seasons. I believe Rany said it best after the extension today (and I am paraphrasing here) how often can a time sign an outfielder entering his prime with the kind of tools that Jeff Francoeur has for this kind of money?

I am not willing to call this a bargain for the Royals, but it would appear that they have paid pretty fair market price for their charismatic right fielder. If you are a believer in the intangibles that Francoeur brings to the clubhouse than you also have to consider those benefits as well.

So what is the opportunity cost here for the Royals? Well considering that the Royals and Alex Gordon have already stated that an extension for the pair is a goal in the offseason, it probably means that an extension for Melky is very unlikely.

At this point Gordon and Frenchy are both under control through the 2013 seasons. Melky is under control for 2012. Is it even feasible that the Royals totally commit to their current outfield through 2013? I can't see it happening. Not this offseason at least.

So what the Royals have done is elected to commit to Francoeur long term, while going year to year with Melky. Melky by the way has been a vastly superior player to Frenchy this season. Cabrera has contributed a WAR of 3.6 and has played a premium position.

Even though Cabrera has been a better player and signing for the Royals this season, was there anyone that thought he was more likely to be extended than Francoeur? I doubt it. Cabrera's ability to play center and switch hit coupled with the fact that he has had a better season than Francoeur should have made him a better fit to sign to a multi-year deal.

In the end, Dayton Moore and company knew that they wanted Francoeur back and quite frankly they may not have been able to do that on a one year deal. By selecting Francoeur as the man to receive an extension they were able to keep the entire outfield intact.

The Royals could have very easily picked up their half of Francoeur's mutual option. If he would have accepted, it would have been a great deal. If he would have declined the Royals could then have offered him arbitration. If Francoeur would have accepted that once again there is only a small financial commitment and it is just for one season. If he would have declined arbitration the Royals could have patted themselves on the back, been proud of their thrifty signing, and hoped that Francoeur obtained Type B free agent status and netted them a supplemental draft choice.

If the Royals would have taken this route they could have shifted Melky Cabrera over to right field next season and hand the centerfield job to Lorenzo Cain. This wouldn't have been a bad route at all. Truthfully I would have preferred the Royals take this route.

What this signing also means is that the Royals don't view Wil Myers as a guy that will be ready by mid 2012. There is nothing wrong with this and it definitely isn't a shot at Wil Myers. But what it means is that Myers should now be afforded at least another season or a season and a half in the minors before he will be able to really push for a big league job.

By signing Francoeur the Royals are able to add to their inventory now and in the future. Obviously they wanted Francoeur back in 2012, and without at least a two year extension they probably couldn't have been sure that he would return. My unimpressive and boring conclusion to all of this is that like the Francoeur signing last winter, this signing isn't a detrimental move. It is predictable. It does offer some positives, but these are about as high end as the potential negatives.

It isn't the route I would have taken. But it isn't a route that will hurt the Royals either. But when the Royals resign Jeff Francoeur to another two years in 2013, it will be a different story.

Trade Deadline Wrap Up

I realize that I'm a bit late to the party when it comes to offering my thoughts on the trade deadline, but here I am anyway and I have something to say. People need chill out with the horrible deadline talk.

To be clear I want to see Lorenzo Cain in centerfield for the Royals. But we need to keep in mind that he isn't an elite guy. Not the kind of player that you have to clear a spot for at least. For that reason the Royals shouldn't just ship off an outfielder for scraps in order to make room for the man.

Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur are both having great years. Cabrera can, without a doubt, be brought back next season simply by offering him arbitration, which he will be required to accept. Jeff Franceur has a mutual option and I expect both sides to exercise it.

So both players should be back next season and should be key components in Mission 2012. I realize that entering the season neither played a role for the Mission, but make no mistake both are deserving of spots now. If the Royals are lucky enough next season to not have an outfielder go down with injury and the outfield performs like it has in 2011, then Lorenzo Cain spends the season as a fourth outfielder in Kansas City or the everyday centerfielder in Omaha and in 2013 the job is his.

If Cabrera or Francoeur regress or go down with injury, Cain assumes the role as the everyday centerfielder and the Royals don't miss a beat. Given that neither Cabrera or Francoeur would be under contract after the season the problem would work itself out. If both perform well and the Royals don't contend, well they'll have another deadline to try and make a deal.

It seems as though the fanbase has widely accepted the youth movement and bought into the farm system so much that they are missing the point in this case. The point of having a great farm system is to turn the crop of young talent into a competitive team. The point isn't to fill the roster with the hot prospect every time he declares himself ready, not when you already have a contributor in place at the Major League level.

The Royals have found a good starting centerfielder in Melky Cabrera. Jeff Francoeur has also put together an excellent season, though many Royals' fans are still unwilling to admit it. If the goal is to win a division in 2012, then why would you sell off a proven commodity for scraps just so that you can give an unproven commodity a chance? Not to mention the predicament you get yourself in should an outfielder get hurt or not perform.

Now we don't know what Dayton Moore was offered for either of his outfielders. But what we do know is that the market quickly became saturated with quality guys. Colby Rasmus, Carlos Beltran, Hunter Pence, and Michael Bourn were all dealt, not to mention B.J. Upton appeared to be on the block for the week leading to the deadline.

What the Royals needed was a mid rotation starter to make a deal worthwhile. Francoeur was never going to net that and with the outfield depth on the market we knew that Cabrera wouldn't either. The Royals made the right decision to hold on to the outfielders. Some fans just won't accept it.

As for the pitching side of things, the Royals didn't make any trades either. The market for back rotation starters was almost nonexistent so Dayton Moore held on to his two elderly lefties. Both of which are here are on one year deals and will be gone at the end of the season. I don't advocate resigning either.

Right now Chen may be able to net the Royals a Supplemental pick in the Rule IV draft, but he will need a strong finish to the season and even then a team would have to sign him to a Major League deal for 2012.

Jeff Francis, on the other hand, has been a good innings eater for the Royals but he is no better than a back end guy at this point in his career. The way I see it the Royals rotation for 2012 goes like this: Paulino, Duffy, Hochevar, Montgomery or Crow, plus a free agent signing. Either the Royals bring in a back end guy like Francis, or they go for a front of the rotation guy. They have the money, so if they want to contend in 2012 a front end guy is what we need.

It would have been nice to grab a high upside low level prospect for Francis, but I am not sure that it was even possible. Like I said the market was virtually nonexistent so I can't blame Dayton Moore for holding on to an innings eater in an attempt to take some stress off of the pen for the last two months of the season.

Had we dealt Francis it would have meant a stint in the rotation by Vin Mazzaro, given Davies shoulder inflammation. Even without the trade, I'm sure point we'll see Mazzaro again, but him going four innings a start isn't what our bullpen needs after a taxing season. Hopefully the next time we see him will just be as a spot start and nothing more.

Obviously it would have been great if the Royals could have fleeced a desperate team and brought in a near Major League ready starter with front end potential. But it didn't happen. The Royals did an excellent job in free agency last winter and found two quality outfielders. Now they are going to hang on to them and hopefully they can perform to the same standard in 2012. If they can then the signings in themselves pushed contention forward and that has always been the goal.

B.J. Upton Rumor and Centerfield Thoughts

A very interesting nugget of trade rumor fell from the sky today when Joel Sherman stated that the Royals "have an interest in B.J. Upton with an eye on contending next year."

Centerfield has always seemed to be a position of critical importance for Dayton Moore (as it rightfully should, especially given Kauffman Stadium's huge alleys). He once traded for Coco Crisp. A season later he signed Scott Podsednik as a stop gap.

Obviously he knew Podsednik wouldn't be the guy once the Royals reached contention again so he flipped him at the deadline. This offseason though the Royals found themselves in a spot where they weren't necessarily expecting to contend. But if the right solution presented itself, the could acquire a piece that could be part of contention once it occurred.

When Justin Upton was rumored to be on the block, we heard that the Royals were one of the teams with an interest in acquiring the 5 tool star. Around the same time the Royals were also linked to the Florida Marlins' Cameron Maybin just before he was traded to San Diego. Both of these players were guys that would be under team control for multiple seasons, were once billed as top prospects, and could cover some serious ground in centerfield.

Eventually the Royals settled on what appeared to be another stop gap in Melky Cabrera. But Dayton Moore talked about how the Royals would also control him for 2012. Of course we thought it was just lip service. I can't blame Royals fans for not wanting to imagine Melky Cabrera as the team's centerfielder for Mission 2012, considering Melky's dreadful 2010 campaign.

A few days after signing the Melkman the Royals acquired another centerfielder in the Zack Greinke trade. Lorenzo Cain had long been coveted by the Royals brass. He nearly was acquired for Brian Bannister a long time ago before Bannister's career came to a screeching halt.

Finally it seemed that the Royals had found their man for the future. Now it was just a matter of Melky performing enough to net some decent value for him in a trade. At the latest we thought Cain would be assuming fulltime centerfield job on August 1st. Allowing him two full months of at bats in the American League.

But a funny thing happened, Melky tore it up and Dayton Moore began to talk about how he's reluctant to trade either of the Royals "stopgap" outfielders. Of course there are fans, myself included, that want to see Cain in the Majors. But now Melky seems to have positioned himself as part of the future. At least for next season. Unless the Royals are overwhelmed by an offer.

If Cain doesn't get called up to play everyday for the last two months of the season. It will be frustrating. But it won't be a tragedy. It isn't as though Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur are one year guys stealing at bats. They could both be a part of the next winning Royals team.

If the Royals believe in Mission 2012 they should go with the best team they can field. Perhaps it isn't the wisest move to simply get rid of an above average Major League outfielder in favor for a guy never considered elite. Even if that guy is tearing it up in Omaha (at a park that highly favors right handed hitters).

But now we hear this rumor regarding B.J. Upton. Let me begin by saying that I love this rumor in principle. I love that the Royals would be willing to make a move to acquire a Big League piece that it feels would push them over the top. However, I don't believe that Upton is the guy.

Of course the ceiling on Upton is limitless. But we shouldn't forget the basics. First, Upton is only under team control through 2012. He has a career triple slash of .256/.341/.411. But over the last three seasons his slash is down to .239/.318/.403. Given the decline in offense production league wide his is basically an average offensive contributor.

Of course there is also the belief that Upton is a top flight baserunner and defender. For his career he has at times shown that this is the truth. But according to fangraphs both his baserunning and fielding have contributed negative values for his WAR in 2011.

Upton is currently having his worst season as a professional and it seems strange that Sternberg and Friedman would be willing to sell so low on such a potentially valuable commity. Given how much respect I have for the Rays front office I don't believe they are willing to sell low and it is for this reason that I believe the Royals shouldn't take the risk.

The Rays are rumored to be asking for top pitching prospects in return for Upton. The Royals definitely have the Minor league talent and depth to pull off a deal, but I don't think this is the player the Royals should take the risk on. Especially when you consider that pitching is the Royals biggest need moving forward.

I would rather the Royals keep Cabrera in centefield and hang on to the prospects. I would rather see Cain finally get the everyday job if the Royals can get a fair return for either Cabrera or Francoeur.

But if the Royals are interested in B.J. Upton would it be safe to assume that they would also kick the tires on Hunter Pence or Colby Rasmus. Both have been discussed in rumors this July. Given Dayton Moore's desire to upgrade center I can't imagine that he would at least make a courtesy call on the subject.

Pence of course would be a huge net for the Royals. He would be under team control for three more seasons and could be the stud the Royals need at the top of their lineup.

Rasmus could be a Royal through 2014. While he has posted similar numbers as B.J. Upton he would seem to be more appealing giving his controlled years and age. He is having a down year and has never seemed to truly belong in St. Louis.

I want to emphasize that I don't think Upton would be a bad pickup. On the contrary his reward is so great that the move would probably get many Royals fans giddy with excitement for 2012. But this is primarily because Upton is so overrated considering what he has actually done as a Big Leaguer. But I do beleive that teams value prospects a bit too much in the current state of the game.

I'd love for the Royals to make a move for a premier Big Leaguer. We have the pieces to do it. If the Rays are willing to sell low I wouldn't fault the Royals for pouncing. But if the Rays want multiple top prospects, the Royals would be best served to look elsewhere.

Quite frankly the Rays front office is too good for me to think that the Royals could get Upton at fair value for what he is right now. If the Royals acquire him it will likely be because they paid for upside. Upside that looks like it may never be reached.

Add On I have just been informed that ESPN Insider reports the Royals want Upton and pitching from Rays. This is interesting because you would think that Upton would be the only thing going to Kansas City in a trade. Perhaps this means that the Royals are offering a big league piece as well. Perhaps Joakim Soria or Billy Butler? Both would be great fits in Tampa.

The Cabrera Conundrum

"Cabrera will ideally play at a decent level for the first few months of the season and then the Royals will have an appealing chip at the deadline."

That's what I said about Cabrera on December 14th. Obviously I was really making a bold statement at the time. What I didn't forsee was Cabrerra playing at such a high level that it would be possible for the Royals to not receive an offer worth trading him. This is because I assumed that even if he played well, he wouldn't possibly play well enough to warrant a spot in the team's future.

But what has happened is that Melky Cabrera has posted a career year in 2011. He is currently hitting .296/.333/.459, has posted an wRC+ of 121 and the sixth best WAR among centerfielders with a 3.3 mark. He has been near average when it comes to defensive evaluations and his arm has been an absolute weapon.

The Royals have Cabrera signed a $1.25 million deal for 2011, so there is no pressing need to unload salary. But because of the way he has played this season the fact that he is under team control through 2012 has now became a much more important piece of information.

The most interesting part of this whole discussion is that the Royals have another outfielder that could be back in 2012 that is also exceeding expectations this season: Jeff Francoeur. Francoeur hasn't been nearly as strong as Melky has thus far, but if Royals fans had to bet on which would be back in 2012, I think virtually everyone would wager that Frenchy would be the guy to stay.

What is also critical is that the Royals have a guy in triple-A that absolutely needs to be in the Majors collecting at bats. Lorenzo Cain cameover from the Brewers and became the centerfielder for the future and thus far has done nothing to depress that belief. He has a .319/.385/.525 in Omaha and reports are that he makes spectacular defensive plays every night.

What I think is interesting is how Royals fans have a player performing at a high level in centerfield that could be back next season, yet most fans would prefer to hand the position over to a prospect. Yes the upside is higher, yes Cabrera is performing at a career high level. However, this is interesting nonetheless. Do you think that by next season Cain will be a top ten centerfielder? Because so far Melky has.

I want to see Cain playing centerfield. But Cabrera has performed at such a high level that the Royals absolutely not trade him unless they receive a deal that they believe fair. Cabrerra isn't like Wilson Betemit. The Royals don't have to deal him. For that reason the haul that the Royals bring in for Cabrerra should present enough upside for it to be obvious that it was the right decision.

The Phillies are rumored to have traded names with the Royals for Cabrera. What guys do you like? Who would it take for you to be happy with the deal? What kind of prospects?

But what if the Royals can't get fair value for Cabrera? What do you think they should do? What is the solution? Trade Francoeur? What if that isn't a possibility? Do you accept what you can get for Cabrera and move on? Or do you stick with your current outfield?

Let me know what you think Royal Nation. Hopefully this is only the first case of the Royals have multiple Major League ready players at one position.

Let the Rumblings Begin

Trading season seems to be bearing down upon us now as the Royals have made news several times in the last few days on the subject. The Royals who find themselves in the cellar of the AL Central have several players that could be intriguing to contending teams, but unless they shop Joakim Soria or Billy Butler really lack the piece that would have teams salivating.

Nonetheless the rumors began on Friday when we heard that the Royals are seeking Major League pitching for Jeff Francoeur. Francoeur then countered the rumor by stating:

“At some point, we’ll talk to Dayton about the option. Maybe get a two or three-year deal or something. I’ve told Dayton that I like it here. I’d love to stay here."

Francoeur for the season has .264/.309/.438 which is right in line with his career line of .267/.310/.426. However, due to offense taking such a dive this season his OPS+ is a very respectable 108, which compared to his career OPS+ of 93 is a definite improvement.

Also, Francoeur has upped his steal count from his previous career high to 15. Honestly steals are pretty overrated but some teams, like the Royals, feel they are much more important than they truly are. Don't forget that he has been great defensively with one of the top arms in the game and leadership qualities that Dayton Moore wants around his young team.

Jeff Francoeur could have some appeal as a platoon rightfielder for a contending team, but I can't see a contending team acquiring him with the idea of playing him everyday. He has value, but if Major League ready starting pitching is what the Royals want they will probably come up empty handed or worse wind up with a Sean O'Sullivan/Vin Mazzaro type.

Keep in mind that Jeff Francoeur has already been trading twice. Once for Ryan Church. Once for Joaquin Arias. It is hard to imagine him netting much more value this go around despite all of his improvement. (Yes I do believe he has improved, just not much.)

Today rumors surfaced that the Brewers and Royals have discussed trading Wilson Betemit. I imagine Betemit could be an extremely appealing bench target for contenders given his ability to play on the corners, his combination of decent power with good on base skills, and his extremely friendly contract.

I imagine there will be more teams other than the Brewers that have discussions for Betemit, however since we don't have specifics I'll simply focus on Milwaukee who seems to really be selling out for 2011. Because Milwaukee has such a poor and empty farm system the Royals would probably be looking at acquiring one of the better prospects in their system.

Of course there is another outfielder that Kansas City possesses on a very team friendly deal that is playing extremely well this season and his name is Melky Cabrerra. The Melkman is having a career year with the bat, can play every outfield position is on a very team friendly contract and is under team control next season as well.

So far this season Melky has posted a career high OPS+ of 119. His previous high was 95. He has also posted a career high WAR of 3.0 compared to his former high of 1.7. These are great numbers, so good in fact that it is hard to imagine the Royals trading him for a fair return.

I don't think teams will be willing to pay him for what he has done this season, because teams will point to 6 other seasons worth of data that show a different story. The Royals will pitch this season and his two years worth of control and in the end the two sides may not be able to put a value on Cabrerra that both teams consider to be fair.

If the Royals can convince teams to pay for Cabrerra like a cheap 3 WAR player then they should without a doubt sell high and consider the signing a huge success. Cash the chips, pat themselves on the back, and give the centerfield job to Cain.

If the Royals can't sell high and Cabrerra is only worth a middling prospect, then the Royals should hang on. Move Francoeur, Shift Cabrerra to a corner, let Cain go to work in center.

The Royals have enough pieces that this could be an extremely busy deadline. However, Moore's quotations in the KC Star indicate that they could also stand pat. Obviously trades are excited, they show an attempt to get better, and give us bloggers something to talk about. But if the Royals do hang on to their pieces it won't necessarily be a bad thing, just the boring thing.

Halfway There. Living on a Prayer.

Just like that we are halfway through the Major League baseball season. Of course most people split the season into two halfs around the all star break, but for the purpose of this post we are going to use the 81 game mark. The reason? All we have to do is multiply by two and we can see some projected totals for Royal players.

Let's start with the catchers. Brayan Pena is on pace for 230 at bats this season, a number that would shatter his previous career high of 165. Of course that number could really jump should the Royals trade Matt Traenor and allow Pena to catch full time in the second half of the season.

Oh and speaking of Matt Treanor. Have you noticed how much he is walking this year? He is currently on pace for 58 walks, while playing in 104 games. He also has an on base percentage of .354. Those 58 walks would be a career high, in fact he has already set a career high when he walked for the 23rd time this season. Matt has also never played more than eighty-two games in a single season.

Over at first base Kila Ka'aihue likely won't be given an opportunity to double his numbers, and since Eric Hosmer didn't play the entire first half it renders this drill pointless for him as well so we'll move on to the "other firstbaseman" Billy Butler.

Butler is currently on pace for some monster numbers for a middle of the order hitter with 12 home runs and 68 rbi. These would be his lowest totals since his rookie season when he posted 11-55 in just 124 games. I should also add that he is on pace for 92 walks which would be the highest single season mark for a Royal since 1989 when Kevin Seitzer walked 102 times and it would shatter the previous Dayton Moore era record of 69 that Butler set in 2010.

Of course over at second base Chris Getz hot streak has really strengthened his projected numbers for the year. Getz who is batting .343 in his last 19 games is now on pace to get 128 hits which would be a career high, while stealing 28 bases which would also be a career high.

When we shift to the other side of the bag we find another middle infielder whose recent hot streak has moved his numbers out of abysmal territory. Alcides Escobar is also on pace for a few career highs: hits (140), doubles (24), rbi (42), and steals (24).

Wilson Betemit playing in part time duty once again, is on pace for 30 doubles and the highest single season WAR of his career at 1.8. His home run power has taken a severe drop and he is only on pace for 4 home runs this season, 9 less than last season despite being on pace for 100 more at bats.

Melky Cabrera is having more pop in his bat this season than any other and if he continues at his current pace will post career highs in home runs (18), doubles (36), and slugging percentage (.428). Despite playing the worst defense of his career he is still on pace for a career high 2.2 WAR.

Jeff Francoeur of course is doing exactly what Dayton Moore brough him in to do. Currently he projects to hit 22 homers, the highest total since his sophomore season when he hit 29. He also figures to finish with 94 rbis and 36 doubles. Not to mention that he would finish with a career high 26 steals. his previous high was 8. He is also on pace for 38 walks, just 5 more than his 162 game average.

Mitch Maier has starred in bench duty. He is having the best season of his career based on the stats that start with a decimal point. However, he is also only on pace for 86 at bats which would be the lowest figure for his career when you remove his 13 at bat 2006 season.

Finally we get to Alex Gordon whose season is easily the best of his career. He is on pace for 186 hits and while he has totally change his approach at the plate, he is also on pace to tie his career high in walks at 66. He also projects to hit 48 doubles, 8 triples, 18 home runs, and score 90 runs. All of these would be career highs. He projects to post a 5.6 WAR.

On the pitching side of things it has been much more grim. Hochevar may be having the best season of his young career. He is on pace to wipe out his previous 0.5 WAR when he finished the year with a 0.6 mark. He is on pace to post career high marks in walks and home runs allowed, while only tying his career high mark in strikeouts. He has been an innings eater (on pace for 210 innings) which is something that shouldn't be taken forgranted with the young pen.

Jeff Francis's era of 4.79 is in line with his career figure of 4.77. He is on pace to eclipse the 200 inning mark for the first time since 2007. But his strikeouts per 9 innings are down to 4.0, from his previous career low of 5.8.

Kyle Davies continues to epically suck. While Bruce Chen continues to drink from the fountain of youth. His 3.46 era would be his best mark since 2004 when he pitched in 8 games for the Baltimore Orioles.

The bullpen is young and has been very strong. But since most are rookies there isn't much to compare their numbers too, exceopt for the closer Joakim Soria. Soria having the worst year of his career. He is on pace to give up the most home runs and walks in his career while recording the fewest strikeouts despite pitching in the most innings since his rookie season.

As a team the Royals are on pace for 66 wins which would place them right in between the 2009 and 2010 win totals. 696 runs scored the most since Dayton Moore's first full season when the team scored 706 times. Finaly they are on pace for 794 runs allowed the lowest since 2008 when the team gave up 781.

Where can we Upgrade?

So with the Royals surprise start, I have began to think about what it means in terms of the prospects. What should the Royals do if they stay in contention? Stick with the Major Leaguers? Promote players that could help now? Trade them? Or not let the state of the Major League team affect the plan?

I don't want to get into that discussion right now, but I do want to think what positions the Royals could upgrade by promotions from within. So let's look at the weaknesses of the Major League roster.

1. Catcher

Unfortunately I see know potential solutions at the catcher position right now. No prospects are going to be ready midseason, although at some point Jason Kendall will return from injury. This would probably mean that Pena is the odd man out and the Royals would lose all offensive potential at the position.

2. First Base

Kila Ka'aihue at this point is not getting it done. Through the first fifteen games he's hitting .174/.304/.283 and with Hosmer tearing it up in Omaha an upgrade is readily available. I believe Ka'aihue will have until early June to get something going, but if he hasn't by then it will likely be Eric Hosmer's time to shine.

3. Second Base

Should Getz falter with the bat second base is another production that could be upgraded as the season progresses. This could occur in one of two ways. The most likely probably involves a Mike Moustakas promotion and Mike Aviles sliding over across the diamond. But the other solution involves the promotion of Johnny Giavotella. Giavotella's defense is much improved and after tearing up both the Texas League and the Arizona Fall League a season ago he is off to a hot start in Omaha.

4. Third Base

In case you haven't heard the Royals have the top third base prospect in all of baseball. He is in triple-A now and a year ago he led minor league baseball in home runs. He also recorded more extra base hits than strikeouts. Mike Moustakas could provide a big boost to the middle of the order should he hit the ground running on his promotion.

5. Centerfield

Right now most fans and Kansas City media treat Melky Cabrerra like he is off to a good start. Personally I'm not a fan of sub .300 on base percentages. Most fans would suggest Lorenzo Cain as an upgrade but I'd also like to throw David Lough's name into the mix. He has a great blend of tools and if he can outproduce Cain over the next couple of months then I'd like to see him granted the first opportunity.

6. Rotation

Here is where the Royals could receive the biggest boost this season. Right now the Royals have three rotation spots that have produced consistently but they could look to bolster the rotation by promoting Mike Montgomery and/or Danny Duffy. If Davies can get it going and be a servicable back end guy then the Royals could add one of the aforementioned prospects and have a decent unit. If they added both and they both perform as they could the rotation could have two of the top young starters in baseball.

The Royals have shocked baseball with their quick start much like they did in 2003. However, unlike that season the Royals could have enough bullets in the minor league gun to reload for a Central title run. Hopefully they can continue to overachieve long enough to find out.