The hot stove is just getting warmed up, but we've already heard on several occasions that the Royals are interested in Darren O'Day and Joakim Soria. If you are like me then you read this and immediately brushed it off as the club doing their due diligence. Before I go any further, I want to be clear that I do believe that is the case. However, let's take a moment and allow ourselves to believe that the Royals are seriously considering adding Soria or O'Day to the back end of their bullpen.
O'Day has been one of the very best relievers in all of baseball over the last four seasons and in the last two seasons Soria has returned to his pre-2012 form. For the Royals, either pitcher would immediately be slotted into the back of the bullpen and join the triumvirate of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, and Luke Hochevar. It is in large part due to this that the acquisition of either feels more like overkill and a waste of resources in regards to the 2016 team.
What if the Royals intention to pursue O'Day or Soria isn't because they want to make their back of the bullpen 4 deep? What if it is because they are looking to flip one of HHD for an outfielder, second baseman, or starting pitcher. It is no secret that this year's free agent market is exceptionally shallow in the relief pitching department. If the Royals could land O'Day or Soria, not only would it lessen the blow should they move Davis, Herrera, or Hochevar, but it would also help to corner the relief market. This would allow the Royals even more negotiating power.
If the Royals were to pursue this sign a relief pitcher, trade a relief pitcher then who would be most likely to be moved? Luke Hochevar would be the least painful to part with. He is owed $5.5 million in 2016 and then has a $7 million mutual option for 2017. Unfortunately, Hochevar is the least painful for a reason. His peripherals were very strong in 2015 and he is said to have closer stuff, but the 3.73 ERA and 4.00 WHIP don't scream closer.
Kelvin Herrera will make approximately $2.5 million in 2016 and has three more years of control before he hits free agency. This and his career 2.60 ERA would make him an extremely valuable commodity on the trade market. I think most in the industry would be perfectly fine with handing the ball to Herrera to get the final three outs of the game.
Wade Davis is owed $8 million for 2016, and has a team option of $10 million for the 2017 season. For arguably the top reliever in baseball this is a bargain. If the Royals signed O'Day to a two year $16 million contract, would it make sense to then slide him into the closer role and trade Davis? Royal Revival's sources have told us that last offseason the Royals were close to moving Davis for a starting pitcher.
Personally, I think this strategy makes sense. Obviously, there is risk that by dealing from a strength you could damage it to a point where it is no longer a strength. We also know that relief pitching is one of the most fickle things in all of baseball. The shelf life for top tier relievers typically isn't long. We were reminded of that just a couple of months ago by Greg Holland. It was rumored that Dayton Moore had opportunities to move Soria for quality packages prior to his injury. It bares to reason, that the Royals likely could have netter a good haul for Holland last offseason. In both cases Dayton Moore held on to his chips too long. Maybe this go around it will be different.
As far as what the Royals could acquire. I think there is good reason to believe that for either Davis or Herrera the Royals would be looking for a piece that they could immediately slide into the back of the rotation or a corner outfield spot. In addition to that they likely could get a prospect of decent value as well. As a long time Jackie Bradley Jr. fan, I'd love to see the Royals match up with Boston to bring the former 1st round pick to Kansas City. Boston is said to be in the market for back end help and there has been rumors that they'd move Bradley Jr or Rusney Castillo plus to get Aroldis Chapman.
As I said when I started this post, I don't believe the Royals will take this route. I'm not even sure that they should take this route. However, I think it is interesting food for thought. If the Royals were to sign O'Day then trade Wade Davis to Boston for Bradley Jr. plus a prospect, they would be able to fill one of their holes without dipping into their free agent budget. Of course, if Hochevar was enough to grab Bradley Jr. from Boston, I'd jump on that deal in a heartbeat.
Edit: Approximately 1 hour after the writing of this post, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com said that Jackie Bradley has generated trade interest from the Royals and Cubs.
Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams
Showing posts with label Joakim Soria. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Joakim Soria. Show all posts
Thursday, November 12, 2015
Sunday, February 9, 2014
Greg Holland Extension Comparables
Dayton Moore's undefeated streak is in jeopardy. He has never went to arbitration, but at this points there is a growing belief that he could head down that path with Greg Holland, following the closer's fantastic 2013 campaign which saw him record 47 saves, 3.2 fWAR, a 1.21 ERA, and 103 strikeouts in 67 innings.
What we know is that the Royals have offered $4.1 million and Holland's camp has countered at $5.2 million. However, given Moore's arbitration track record, as well as his history of signing players to extensions, I can't help but wonder if the true hold up is that the sides are attempting to tie up the loose ends of a long term contract.
Here's what Holland had to say about the possibility:
Prior to signing his extension after the 2008 season, Joakim Soria had posted a 2.05 ERA over 136.1 professional innings. During that time he had compiled 59 saves with a strikeout to walk ratio of 141 to 38. The deal that Soria signed was to pay out $1 million in year one, $3 million in year two, $4 in year three, then team options for years four through six at $6 million, $8 million, and $8.75 million.
Roughly three years later, Sergio Santos signed a remarkably similar deal. In his first two seasons, Santos threw 115 innings for the Chicago White Sox and recorded a 3.29 ERA, 31 saves, and a 148 to 55 strikeout to walk ratio. That deal was to pay Santos $1 million in the first year, $2.75 million in the second, and $3.75 in the third. The deal then offered three consecutive team options for $6 million, $8 million, and $8.75 million a piece.
Greg Holland has pitched in quite a bit more innings than either of the previously mentioned pitchers. At this point he has thrown 212.2 innings with a 2.41 ERA, 67 saves, and 291 strikeouts to 79 walks. Performance wise, he is a better pitcher at a similar stage he is a better pitcher than Santos, but a slightly behind Soria. Of course, the Royals will also have to pay extra for the longer track record that Holland provides in comparison to the aforementioned closers.
Obviously, Holland isn't going to sign for a deal that only pays him $1 million in 2014. However, I could see a deal that is similar to the above but guarantees more and buys out a little less control. I might venture a guess like $4 million for 2014, $6 million for 2015, $8 million for 2016, $8.75 team option for 2017, and a $9.5 million team option for 2018.
This type of deal would provide cost certainty for the Royals, while also allowing them the option of controlling Holland for a couple of extra seasons. For Holland he would be guaranteed $18 million over the next three seasons, an excellent haul for a first time arbitration eligible reliever.
What do you guys think? Are you comfortable committing that sort of coin to a reliever?
If you are of the opinion that the Royals should try and sell high on Holland, keep in mind that this sort of deal wouldn't prohibit that. Then the question would become, if Holland signed this extension would he be a more attractive asset? I have to think that many teams would consider these terms a bargain.
What do you think Royals nation?
Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams
What we know is that the Royals have offered $4.1 million and Holland's camp has countered at $5.2 million. However, given Moore's arbitration track record, as well as his history of signing players to extensions, I can't help but wonder if the true hold up is that the sides are attempting to tie up the loose ends of a long term contract.
Here's what Holland had to say about the possibility:
"Would everyone in that room like to be here for a long time for their whole career? Yeah. Is that going to happen? Probably not."I'm sure Holland would be willing to sign a deal to stay in Kansas City, but that will depend on the size of the contract. So what might it take to keep Holland in Kansas City? Let's take a look at a couple of pretty good comparables, both of which were at similar points in regards to their service time clocks.
Prior to signing his extension after the 2008 season, Joakim Soria had posted a 2.05 ERA over 136.1 professional innings. During that time he had compiled 59 saves with a strikeout to walk ratio of 141 to 38. The deal that Soria signed was to pay out $1 million in year one, $3 million in year two, $4 in year three, then team options for years four through six at $6 million, $8 million, and $8.75 million.
Roughly three years later, Sergio Santos signed a remarkably similar deal. In his first two seasons, Santos threw 115 innings for the Chicago White Sox and recorded a 3.29 ERA, 31 saves, and a 148 to 55 strikeout to walk ratio. That deal was to pay Santos $1 million in the first year, $2.75 million in the second, and $3.75 in the third. The deal then offered three consecutive team options for $6 million, $8 million, and $8.75 million a piece.
Greg Holland has pitched in quite a bit more innings than either of the previously mentioned pitchers. At this point he has thrown 212.2 innings with a 2.41 ERA, 67 saves, and 291 strikeouts to 79 walks. Performance wise, he is a better pitcher at a similar stage he is a better pitcher than Santos, but a slightly behind Soria. Of course, the Royals will also have to pay extra for the longer track record that Holland provides in comparison to the aforementioned closers.
Obviously, Holland isn't going to sign for a deal that only pays him $1 million in 2014. However, I could see a deal that is similar to the above but guarantees more and buys out a little less control. I might venture a guess like $4 million for 2014, $6 million for 2015, $8 million for 2016, $8.75 team option for 2017, and a $9.5 million team option for 2018.
This type of deal would provide cost certainty for the Royals, while also allowing them the option of controlling Holland for a couple of extra seasons. For Holland he would be guaranteed $18 million over the next three seasons, an excellent haul for a first time arbitration eligible reliever.
What do you guys think? Are you comfortable committing that sort of coin to a reliever?
If you are of the opinion that the Royals should try and sell high on Holland, keep in mind that this sort of deal wouldn't prohibit that. Then the question would become, if Holland signed this extension would he be a more attractive asset? I have to think that many teams would consider these terms a bargain.
What do you think Royals nation?
Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams
Friday, December 9, 2011
Winter Meetings Day 4 Round Up
Well, not exactly a ton of movement this year for the winter meetings. But I think it is apparent now that at some point the Royals will sign a veteran back up infielder. Personally, I still believe the Royals will add one more starter before pitchers and catchers report.
1. Royals draft Cesar Cabral in Rule 5 draft. I guess we were all right the Royals had a lefty they wanted to add to the mix and they got him.
2. Royals trade Cabral to the New York Yankees for $100K cash money. Well that was weird. Given the Royals trade to open up a spot at basically the 11th hour, it really seemed like they wanted that spot for someone in particular. So my guess is this thing played out one of two ways.
Possibility 1: The player the Royals wanted was drafted prior to their selection. This would mean that the guy KC really wanted was either: Rhiner Cruz, Terry Doyle, Lucas Luetge, or Ryan Flaherty. The Royals had also talked with the Yankees about their desire for Cabral and agreed if the Royals' man wasn't there they would select Cabral for New York.
Possibility 2: The Yankees approached the Royals about helping them get Cabral. The Royals knowing that they would need an open 40-man spot soon to announce a signing decided, why not execute the Navarro trade now and get some extra cash. The winter meetings aren't cheap.
3. Royals select Thomas Melgarejo in minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. This guy pitched in the Mexican League so I hope no one is shy about their Joakim Soria comparisons. If you want to see Melgarjo's stats click here.
4. If Cardinals are non tender Ryan Theriot, the Royals will be interested. Like I said there were some pretty thrilling Royals rumors this week in Dallas. I'm not sure that Theriot would be willing to accept a bench role, but I could see him fitting the Royals' needs.
5. Yu Darvish has been posted. I would be flabbergasted if news surfaced that the Royals even place a bid in the process. But I haven't been shy in my sentiment that Darvish could be a great fit for the Royals from a financial perspective. It is rare to have the opportunity to sign a 1/2 starter and only have to pay him 7 figures (maybe low 8 figures) at the end of his deal. If you want a better explanation for why I believe Darvish makes sense click here. Teams have until 4:00 CT on December 14 to place their blind auction bids on Yu's services.
1. Royals draft Cesar Cabral in Rule 5 draft. I guess we were all right the Royals had a lefty they wanted to add to the mix and they got him.
2. Royals trade Cabral to the New York Yankees for $100K cash money. Well that was weird. Given the Royals trade to open up a spot at basically the 11th hour, it really seemed like they wanted that spot for someone in particular. So my guess is this thing played out one of two ways.
Possibility 1: The player the Royals wanted was drafted prior to their selection. This would mean that the guy KC really wanted was either: Rhiner Cruz, Terry Doyle, Lucas Luetge, or Ryan Flaherty. The Royals had also talked with the Yankees about their desire for Cabral and agreed if the Royals' man wasn't there they would select Cabral for New York.
Possibility 2: The Yankees approached the Royals about helping them get Cabral. The Royals knowing that they would need an open 40-man spot soon to announce a signing decided, why not execute the Navarro trade now and get some extra cash. The winter meetings aren't cheap.
3. Royals select Thomas Melgarejo in minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. This guy pitched in the Mexican League so I hope no one is shy about their Joakim Soria comparisons. If you want to see Melgarjo's stats click here.
4. If Cardinals are non tender Ryan Theriot, the Royals will be interested. Like I said there were some pretty thrilling Royals rumors this week in Dallas. I'm not sure that Theriot would be willing to accept a bench role, but I could see him fitting the Royals' needs.
5. Yu Darvish has been posted. I would be flabbergasted if news surfaced that the Royals even place a bid in the process. But I haven't been shy in my sentiment that Darvish could be a great fit for the Royals from a financial perspective. It is rare to have the opportunity to sign a 1/2 starter and only have to pay him 7 figures (maybe low 8 figures) at the end of his deal. If you want a better explanation for why I believe Darvish makes sense click here. Teams have until 4:00 CT on December 14 to place their blind auction bids on Yu's services.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Winter Meetings Day 2 Round Up
Not much in the way of exciting new news came on Tuesday for the Kansas City Royals, but here are the things we heard about:
1. Royals continue to dangle Soria for a front line starter. This is the right move. But given the White Sox return for Sergio Santos, a player extremely comparable to Soria, I don't think the Royals will get the opportunity at the return they are looking for.
2. Royals continue to look for a right handed bat to back up Moustakas. I'd love to see the Royals have a quality bat off the bench that could occasionally spell Moustakas against tough lefties and serve as a pinch hitter in the late innings.
If the Royals go with a four man bench they have a back up catcher, back up outfielder and two spots remaining. They've rumored to want a left handed middle infielder and if they get that and a right handed hitting third baseman that means there is only one back up outfielder on the roster (not a huge deal). But I keep coming back to the thought that Yamaico Navarro given his switch hitting ability could serve both of the aforementioned bench roles and leave the Royals with one more bench spot to play with.
3. Royals tried to acquire Derek Lowe before he was traded to Cleveland. I figured at some point we would find out the Royals were interested. Personally, I don't see Lowe as being any more desirable than Sanchez or Chen. Although, the Indians are building up quite the ground ball inducing staff.
4. Royals are searching for a situational lefty. You always need another bullpen arm, but the Royals don't need to spend any money on this search. If they sign a lefty for anywhere at or over $1 million it would be a waste.
That's all I've got. Nothing incredibly exciting to comment on, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing. Even if our off season moves don't make us markedly better, the beauty of having such a young team is that natural progression can be expected.
Now is not the time for impatience.
1. Royals continue to dangle Soria for a front line starter. This is the right move. But given the White Sox return for Sergio Santos, a player extremely comparable to Soria, I don't think the Royals will get the opportunity at the return they are looking for.
2. Royals continue to look for a right handed bat to back up Moustakas. I'd love to see the Royals have a quality bat off the bench that could occasionally spell Moustakas against tough lefties and serve as a pinch hitter in the late innings.
If the Royals go with a four man bench they have a back up catcher, back up outfielder and two spots remaining. They've rumored to want a left handed middle infielder and if they get that and a right handed hitting third baseman that means there is only one back up outfielder on the roster (not a huge deal). But I keep coming back to the thought that Yamaico Navarro given his switch hitting ability could serve both of the aforementioned bench roles and leave the Royals with one more bench spot to play with.
3. Royals tried to acquire Derek Lowe before he was traded to Cleveland. I figured at some point we would find out the Royals were interested. Personally, I don't see Lowe as being any more desirable than Sanchez or Chen. Although, the Indians are building up quite the ground ball inducing staff.
4. Royals are searching for a situational lefty. You always need another bullpen arm, but the Royals don't need to spend any money on this search. If they sign a lefty for anywhere at or over $1 million it would be a waste.
That's all I've got. Nothing incredibly exciting to comment on, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing. Even if our off season moves don't make us markedly better, the beauty of having such a young team is that natural progression can be expected.
Now is not the time for impatience.
Monday, December 5, 2011
Winter Meetings: Day 1 Round Up
So here are some quick hits of the Royals rumors today:
1. Royals are one of five teams interested in Carlos Guillen. This would have to come real cheap, and since Guillen wouldn't even be a viable back up for Escobar, I'm just not sure how this fits. Looking at the market, I'm beginning to think that Navarro presents the best blend of versatility and bat skill for our bench. It just becomes a matter of how important for the organization to have him playing everyday.
2. Royals are dangling Soria and Holland for pitching, but are asking for a lot. The Royals have every right to be asking for a lot, even considering last season, Soria has been one of the top closers in baseball and still has an incredibly favorable contract. Holland of course is under team control for five more seasons after dominating in 2011.
3. Royals are aggressively pursuing starting pitching and are talking with the Athletics about Gio Gonzalez. I haven't heard of any specific names from the Royals end, but I would imagine the Athletics are demanding a lot in return. For me my interest in Gio hinges on the Athletics demand. I don't include Myers, but a package involving one of either Odorizzi or Montgomery, Colon and a lower level guy like Eibner, Bonifacio, Ventura, Yambati, or Adam would make sense to me, but I'd imagine wouldn't for the Athletics.
4. Royals have also kicked tires on Jeremy Guthrie. As is case with everyone greatly depends on cost. I think Guthrie's numbers would improve should he be dealt to Kansas City, however, with a cursory glance over his numbers I'm not convinced we'd be adding anything more than a #3. Quite frankly we've got plenty of potential #3s.
5. Royals have scouted Cuban Yoenis Cespedes. To be clear, Dayton Moore basically said he would likely fall way out of the Royals price range, but there is a precedent for the Royals shocking the industry on the Cuban market. If the Royals do love Cespedes, and are concerned with Cain... well... yeah, I'd still be shocked if we landed Cespedes.
6. The Royals and Rays have discussed Shields, with Rays seeking a return of Soria, Myers, and Colon. In trades for guys like Shields, teams typically have to give up a centerpiece, quality player, and one or two complimentary pieces. My problem with this trade is that the Royals would be giving up too much. Soria is an elite closer on a team friendly deal, Myers is a blue chip prospect, and Christian Colon was the #4 overall selection in the 2010 draft. But don't forget, it is rare for teams to actually get the haul that they initially demand. Just because the Rays are seeking that package, doesn't mean that the Royals would have give up that to obtain Big Game James. We'll just have to wait and see.
1. Royals are one of five teams interested in Carlos Guillen. This would have to come real cheap, and since Guillen wouldn't even be a viable back up for Escobar, I'm just not sure how this fits. Looking at the market, I'm beginning to think that Navarro presents the best blend of versatility and bat skill for our bench. It just becomes a matter of how important for the organization to have him playing everyday.
2. Royals are dangling Soria and Holland for pitching, but are asking for a lot. The Royals have every right to be asking for a lot, even considering last season, Soria has been one of the top closers in baseball and still has an incredibly favorable contract. Holland of course is under team control for five more seasons after dominating in 2011.
3. Royals are aggressively pursuing starting pitching and are talking with the Athletics about Gio Gonzalez. I haven't heard of any specific names from the Royals end, but I would imagine the Athletics are demanding a lot in return. For me my interest in Gio hinges on the Athletics demand. I don't include Myers, but a package involving one of either Odorizzi or Montgomery, Colon and a lower level guy like Eibner, Bonifacio, Ventura, Yambati, or Adam would make sense to me, but I'd imagine wouldn't for the Athletics.
4. Royals have also kicked tires on Jeremy Guthrie. As is case with everyone greatly depends on cost. I think Guthrie's numbers would improve should he be dealt to Kansas City, however, with a cursory glance over his numbers I'm not convinced we'd be adding anything more than a #3. Quite frankly we've got plenty of potential #3s.
5. Royals have scouted Cuban Yoenis Cespedes. To be clear, Dayton Moore basically said he would likely fall way out of the Royals price range, but there is a precedent for the Royals shocking the industry on the Cuban market. If the Royals do love Cespedes, and are concerned with Cain... well... yeah, I'd still be shocked if we landed Cespedes.
6. The Royals and Rays have discussed Shields, with Rays seeking a return of Soria, Myers, and Colon. In trades for guys like Shields, teams typically have to give up a centerpiece, quality player, and one or two complimentary pieces. My problem with this trade is that the Royals would be giving up too much. Soria is an elite closer on a team friendly deal, Myers is a blue chip prospect, and Christian Colon was the #4 overall selection in the 2010 draft. But don't forget, it is rare for teams to actually get the haul that they initially demand. Just because the Rays are seeking that package, doesn't mean that the Royals would have give up that to obtain Big Game James. We'll just have to wait and see.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
An Ominous Sign?
Last night the future became today for Royals fans. For eight and a half innings we were able to daydream about the future by witnessing the present. Johnny Giavotella hit a triple to the gap. Salvador Perez was dominating the Rays' running game. Felipe Paulino gave up just one run in 5 innings.
The telecast even asked the viewers which Royals player was going to win a Major award first: Salvador Perez, Johnny Giavotella, Mike Moustakas, or Eric Hosmer. (As if it was a given that all of these guys would develop into star caliber players.)
When Melky Cabrera hit a three run home run in the top of the ninth it was an awesome way to cap off the evening. Aaron Crow was then rushed in from the bullpen and we he took the mound he was surrounded by five other players that hadn't yet turned twenty-five.
But then the Royals collapsed. For a team that had for eight and a half innings had looked an awful lot like the fabled 2014 World Series Champion Royals, they looked an awful lot like the 2004, 100 loss Royals in the bottom of the 9th.
To start the inning Ned Yost rushed Aaron Crow to the mound for one reason: a statistic. Remember that mantra "You play to win the game." Well in baseball, Managers play to build up statistics. I don't want to get deep into my feelings on how the modern bullpen is operated, but when Soria was already warmed up and ready to go he should have been put into the game. It isn't as if he has been over used lately.
Instead when the Royals took the four run lead, Ned Yost frantically had to alter his plans because Soria had no place pitching in a non-save situation. So the route Yost took was to rush in a pitcher that hasn't had his best stuff since the All Star break. Sure we learned he was pitching through some ailments. But even if those have recovered, the stuff hasn't.
For a guy that has lacked crispness since the break, rushing in from the bullpen was a recipe for disaster. Two batters later Yost was pulling Crow from the game and calling for his closer. Soria by the way had already warmed up once, sat back down and then as quickly as Crow was forced to warm up for the 9th Soria was asked to rewarm up to relieve Crow.
A few hitters, some shoddy defense, a throw that bounced off a base runner, no one backing up third, and five runs later the Royals were exiting the field without the opportunity to shake hands in the middle of the diamond.
I was an extremely frustrating finale to an otherwise awesome night. It sure felt like 2004, and until this team can put together 9 quality innings on an everyday basis there will be other gmes when we are reminded of the past as well.
But for now we'll try to write this off as a growing pains, a common problem for young teams. Let's just hope we can get them out of our system fast, because I don't know if Royals fans can handle much more bad baseball when the light at the end of the tunnel is supposed to be blinding.
The telecast even asked the viewers which Royals player was going to win a Major award first: Salvador Perez, Johnny Giavotella, Mike Moustakas, or Eric Hosmer. (As if it was a given that all of these guys would develop into star caliber players.)
When Melky Cabrera hit a three run home run in the top of the ninth it was an awesome way to cap off the evening. Aaron Crow was then rushed in from the bullpen and we he took the mound he was surrounded by five other players that hadn't yet turned twenty-five.
But then the Royals collapsed. For a team that had for eight and a half innings had looked an awful lot like the fabled 2014 World Series Champion Royals, they looked an awful lot like the 2004, 100 loss Royals in the bottom of the 9th.
To start the inning Ned Yost rushed Aaron Crow to the mound for one reason: a statistic. Remember that mantra "You play to win the game." Well in baseball, Managers play to build up statistics. I don't want to get deep into my feelings on how the modern bullpen is operated, but when Soria was already warmed up and ready to go he should have been put into the game. It isn't as if he has been over used lately.
Instead when the Royals took the four run lead, Ned Yost frantically had to alter his plans because Soria had no place pitching in a non-save situation. So the route Yost took was to rush in a pitcher that hasn't had his best stuff since the All Star break. Sure we learned he was pitching through some ailments. But even if those have recovered, the stuff hasn't.
For a guy that has lacked crispness since the break, rushing in from the bullpen was a recipe for disaster. Two batters later Yost was pulling Crow from the game and calling for his closer. Soria by the way had already warmed up once, sat back down and then as quickly as Crow was forced to warm up for the 9th Soria was asked to rewarm up to relieve Crow.
A few hitters, some shoddy defense, a throw that bounced off a base runner, no one backing up third, and five runs later the Royals were exiting the field without the opportunity to shake hands in the middle of the diamond.
I was an extremely frustrating finale to an otherwise awesome night. It sure felt like 2004, and until this team can put together 9 quality innings on an everyday basis there will be other gmes when we are reminded of the past as well.
But for now we'll try to write this off as a growing pains, a common problem for young teams. Let's just hope we can get them out of our system fast, because I don't know if Royals fans can handle much more bad baseball when the light at the end of the tunnel is supposed to be blinding.
Monday, July 25, 2011
B.J. Upton Rumor and Centerfield Thoughts
A very interesting nugget of trade rumor fell from the sky today when Joel Sherman stated that the Royals "have an interest in B.J. Upton with an eye on contending next year."
Centerfield has always seemed to be a position of critical importance for Dayton Moore (as it rightfully should, especially given Kauffman Stadium's huge alleys). He once traded for Coco Crisp. A season later he signed Scott Podsednik as a stop gap.
Obviously he knew Podsednik wouldn't be the guy once the Royals reached contention again so he flipped him at the deadline. This offseason though the Royals found themselves in a spot where they weren't necessarily expecting to contend. But if the right solution presented itself, the could acquire a piece that could be part of contention once it occurred.
When Justin Upton was rumored to be on the block, we heard that the Royals were one of the teams with an interest in acquiring the 5 tool star. Around the same time the Royals were also linked to the Florida Marlins' Cameron Maybin just before he was traded to San Diego. Both of these players were guys that would be under team control for multiple seasons, were once billed as top prospects, and could cover some serious ground in centerfield.
Eventually the Royals settled on what appeared to be another stop gap in Melky Cabrera. But Dayton Moore talked about how the Royals would also control him for 2012. Of course we thought it was just lip service. I can't blame Royals fans for not wanting to imagine Melky Cabrera as the team's centerfielder for Mission 2012, considering Melky's dreadful 2010 campaign.
A few days after signing the Melkman the Royals acquired another centerfielder in the Zack Greinke trade. Lorenzo Cain had long been coveted by the Royals brass. He nearly was acquired for Brian Bannister a long time ago before Bannister's career came to a screeching halt.
Finally it seemed that the Royals had found their man for the future. Now it was just a matter of Melky performing enough to net some decent value for him in a trade. At the latest we thought Cain would be assuming fulltime centerfield job on August 1st. Allowing him two full months of at bats in the American League.
But a funny thing happened, Melky tore it up and Dayton Moore began to talk about how he's reluctant to trade either of the Royals "stopgap" outfielders. Of course there are fans, myself included, that want to see Cain in the Majors. But now Melky seems to have positioned himself as part of the future. At least for next season. Unless the Royals are overwhelmed by an offer.
If Cain doesn't get called up to play everyday for the last two months of the season. It will be frustrating. But it won't be a tragedy. It isn't as though Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur are one year guys stealing at bats. They could both be a part of the next winning Royals team.
If the Royals believe in Mission 2012 they should go with the best team they can field. Perhaps it isn't the wisest move to simply get rid of an above average Major League outfielder in favor for a guy never considered elite. Even if that guy is tearing it up in Omaha (at a park that highly favors right handed hitters).
But now we hear this rumor regarding B.J. Upton. Let me begin by saying that I love this rumor in principle. I love that the Royals would be willing to make a move to acquire a Big League piece that it feels would push them over the top. However, I don't believe that Upton is the guy.
Of course the ceiling on Upton is limitless. But we shouldn't forget the basics. First, Upton is only under team control through 2012. He has a career triple slash of .256/.341/.411. But over the last three seasons his slash is down to .239/.318/.403. Given the decline in offense production league wide his is basically an average offensive contributor.
Of course there is also the belief that Upton is a top flight baserunner and defender. For his career he has at times shown that this is the truth. But according to fangraphs both his baserunning and fielding have contributed negative values for his WAR in 2011.
Upton is currently having his worst season as a professional and it seems strange that Sternberg and Friedman would be willing to sell so low on such a potentially valuable commity. Given how much respect I have for the Rays front office I don't believe they are willing to sell low and it is for this reason that I believe the Royals shouldn't take the risk.
The Rays are rumored to be asking for top pitching prospects in return for Upton. The Royals definitely have the Minor league talent and depth to pull off a deal, but I don't think this is the player the Royals should take the risk on. Especially when you consider that pitching is the Royals biggest need moving forward.
I would rather the Royals keep Cabrera in centefield and hang on to the prospects. I would rather see Cain finally get the everyday job if the Royals can get a fair return for either Cabrera or Francoeur.
But if the Royals are interested in B.J. Upton would it be safe to assume that they would also kick the tires on Hunter Pence or Colby Rasmus. Both have been discussed in rumors this July. Given Dayton Moore's desire to upgrade center I can't imagine that he would at least make a courtesy call on the subject.
Pence of course would be a huge net for the Royals. He would be under team control for three more seasons and could be the stud the Royals need at the top of their lineup.
Rasmus could be a Royal through 2014. While he has posted similar numbers as B.J. Upton he would seem to be more appealing giving his controlled years and age. He is having a down year and has never seemed to truly belong in St. Louis.
I want to emphasize that I don't think Upton would be a bad pickup. On the contrary his reward is so great that the move would probably get many Royals fans giddy with excitement for 2012. But this is primarily because Upton is so overrated considering what he has actually done as a Big Leaguer. But I do beleive that teams value prospects a bit too much in the current state of the game.
I'd love for the Royals to make a move for a premier Big Leaguer. We have the pieces to do it. If the Rays are willing to sell low I wouldn't fault the Royals for pouncing. But if the Rays want multiple top prospects, the Royals would be best served to look elsewhere.
Quite frankly the Rays front office is too good for me to think that the Royals could get Upton at fair value for what he is right now. If the Royals acquire him it will likely be because they paid for upside. Upside that looks like it may never be reached.
Add On I have just been informed that ESPN Insider reports the Royals want Upton and pitching from Rays. This is interesting because you would think that Upton would be the only thing going to Kansas City in a trade. Perhaps this means that the Royals are offering a big league piece as well. Perhaps Joakim Soria or Billy Butler? Both would be great fits in Tampa.
Centerfield has always seemed to be a position of critical importance for Dayton Moore (as it rightfully should, especially given Kauffman Stadium's huge alleys). He once traded for Coco Crisp. A season later he signed Scott Podsednik as a stop gap.
Obviously he knew Podsednik wouldn't be the guy once the Royals reached contention again so he flipped him at the deadline. This offseason though the Royals found themselves in a spot where they weren't necessarily expecting to contend. But if the right solution presented itself, the could acquire a piece that could be part of contention once it occurred.
When Justin Upton was rumored to be on the block, we heard that the Royals were one of the teams with an interest in acquiring the 5 tool star. Around the same time the Royals were also linked to the Florida Marlins' Cameron Maybin just before he was traded to San Diego. Both of these players were guys that would be under team control for multiple seasons, were once billed as top prospects, and could cover some serious ground in centerfield.
Eventually the Royals settled on what appeared to be another stop gap in Melky Cabrera. But Dayton Moore talked about how the Royals would also control him for 2012. Of course we thought it was just lip service. I can't blame Royals fans for not wanting to imagine Melky Cabrera as the team's centerfielder for Mission 2012, considering Melky's dreadful 2010 campaign.
A few days after signing the Melkman the Royals acquired another centerfielder in the Zack Greinke trade. Lorenzo Cain had long been coveted by the Royals brass. He nearly was acquired for Brian Bannister a long time ago before Bannister's career came to a screeching halt.
Finally it seemed that the Royals had found their man for the future. Now it was just a matter of Melky performing enough to net some decent value for him in a trade. At the latest we thought Cain would be assuming fulltime centerfield job on August 1st. Allowing him two full months of at bats in the American League.
But a funny thing happened, Melky tore it up and Dayton Moore began to talk about how he's reluctant to trade either of the Royals "stopgap" outfielders. Of course there are fans, myself included, that want to see Cain in the Majors. But now Melky seems to have positioned himself as part of the future. At least for next season. Unless the Royals are overwhelmed by an offer.
If Cain doesn't get called up to play everyday for the last two months of the season. It will be frustrating. But it won't be a tragedy. It isn't as though Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur are one year guys stealing at bats. They could both be a part of the next winning Royals team.
If the Royals believe in Mission 2012 they should go with the best team they can field. Perhaps it isn't the wisest move to simply get rid of an above average Major League outfielder in favor for a guy never considered elite. Even if that guy is tearing it up in Omaha (at a park that highly favors right handed hitters).
But now we hear this rumor regarding B.J. Upton. Let me begin by saying that I love this rumor in principle. I love that the Royals would be willing to make a move to acquire a Big League piece that it feels would push them over the top. However, I don't believe that Upton is the guy.
Of course the ceiling on Upton is limitless. But we shouldn't forget the basics. First, Upton is only under team control through 2012. He has a career triple slash of .256/.341/.411. But over the last three seasons his slash is down to .239/.318/.403. Given the decline in offense production league wide his is basically an average offensive contributor.
Of course there is also the belief that Upton is a top flight baserunner and defender. For his career he has at times shown that this is the truth. But according to fangraphs both his baserunning and fielding have contributed negative values for his WAR in 2011.
Upton is currently having his worst season as a professional and it seems strange that Sternberg and Friedman would be willing to sell so low on such a potentially valuable commity. Given how much respect I have for the Rays front office I don't believe they are willing to sell low and it is for this reason that I believe the Royals shouldn't take the risk.
The Rays are rumored to be asking for top pitching prospects in return for Upton. The Royals definitely have the Minor league talent and depth to pull off a deal, but I don't think this is the player the Royals should take the risk on. Especially when you consider that pitching is the Royals biggest need moving forward.
I would rather the Royals keep Cabrera in centefield and hang on to the prospects. I would rather see Cain finally get the everyday job if the Royals can get a fair return for either Cabrera or Francoeur.
But if the Royals are interested in B.J. Upton would it be safe to assume that they would also kick the tires on Hunter Pence or Colby Rasmus. Both have been discussed in rumors this July. Given Dayton Moore's desire to upgrade center I can't imagine that he would at least make a courtesy call on the subject.
Pence of course would be a huge net for the Royals. He would be under team control for three more seasons and could be the stud the Royals need at the top of their lineup.
Rasmus could be a Royal through 2014. While he has posted similar numbers as B.J. Upton he would seem to be more appealing giving his controlled years and age. He is having a down year and has never seemed to truly belong in St. Louis.
I want to emphasize that I don't think Upton would be a bad pickup. On the contrary his reward is so great that the move would probably get many Royals fans giddy with excitement for 2012. But this is primarily because Upton is so overrated considering what he has actually done as a Big Leaguer. But I do beleive that teams value prospects a bit too much in the current state of the game.
I'd love for the Royals to make a move for a premier Big Leaguer. We have the pieces to do it. If the Rays are willing to sell low I wouldn't fault the Royals for pouncing. But if the Rays want multiple top prospects, the Royals would be best served to look elsewhere.
Quite frankly the Rays front office is too good for me to think that the Royals could get Upton at fair value for what he is right now. If the Royals acquire him it will likely be because they paid for upside. Upside that looks like it may never be reached.
Add On I have just been informed that ESPN Insider reports the Royals want Upton and pitching from Rays. This is interesting because you would think that Upton would be the only thing going to Kansas City in a trade. Perhaps this means that the Royals are offering a big league piece as well. Perhaps Joakim Soria or Billy Butler? Both would be great fits in Tampa.
Friday, July 1, 2011
What to do with Joakim; Part 4
I am going to post my thoughts here about the Nationals as a trade partner for Joakim Soria. They do have one potential piece that could be very attractive to the Royals, however I don't think they have the prospect flair to get a deal done.
Here is why I am going to briefly touch on the Nationals though. First I imagine the two teams have good relations with one another given that they nearly were able to complete a deal that would have sent Zack Greinke to Washington for Jordan Zimmerman, Danny Espinosa, and Drew Storen. It is a shame that Dayton Moore didn't follow his mentor's advice and never include no trade clauses in contracts, because that haul would have been sweet. But I digress...
Back to why I believe the Nationals should be discussed. It seems that the Nationals are in win now mode. This sounds strange, but I truly do believe that they want to do everything it takes to win soon and build up a fan base in the Washington D.C. area. If they could win no, while the Orioles are struggling it would only be that much more beneficial to their growing fan base.
The Nationals have also blown more saves than any other team in baseball in 2011. They are currently 23 for 41 on converting save opportunities into wins. Despite this horrible figure they are one of the surprises of baseball and are currently 41-41.
I am sure the Nationals, like every other team in baseball would love to add Soria to their bullpen and his team friendly contract. Since they wouldn't be adding a one year guy they could knock out a primary offseason priority and when Strasburg returns next year and some of their young players are another year along in their development they could be ready to really contend.
There is one piece in the Nationals farm system not named Bryce Harper that would be extremely appealing to the Royals and his name is Derek Norris. Norris entered the season rated as the number 72 prospect in the game and the second best prospect in the Nationals organization.
Norris is said to have plus power potential, which was on display in low-A when he hit 23 home runs for Hagerstown. What really makes Norris stand out though his his plate discipline. For his career he has walked 308 times and struck out just 361 times. In fact in this season in his first stop in double-A, as a twenty-two year old he has walked 41 times to 57 strikeouts.
His discipline has also been his falling. He often watches too many pitches and because of it gets himself into bad counts. He is only hitting .207 but the offensive potential is definitely there. Despite this dreadful batting average he is still getting on base at a .371 clip.
He is still a bit raw defensively, but he did throw out 51% of would be base stealers a season ago. However, that number is down to 37% in 2011. Norris is said to have all star potential and is one of the top catching prospects in the minors.
The Royals would also surely be interested in acquiring Drew Storen, one of the players they thought they had acquired last winter in the nixed deal. Storen ironically was the man the Nationals drafted with the compensation pick they received for their failure to sign Aaron Crow.
It hasn't taken long for Storen to establish himself not just as an up and comer but as one of the better relief pitchers in the game. This season he has a 2.90 era and a 32:12 strikeout to walk ratio.
There are also two primary pitching prospects that would be discussed in the deal. The first is the Nationals 4th rated prospect: A.J. Cole. Cole is a 6-4, nineteen year old righty. Thus far in his first full season he has posted a 2.92 era with 46 Ks to 9 walks in 37 innings.
Cole sits in the mid 90s with above average command and a smooth delivery. His curve could be a plus pitch and his changeup is developing but as of now hit or miss. He doesn't fit in the first wave but could be a great arm to that second wave.
The other young arm that would be extremely appealing to the Royals, because of how it could play into the second wave that they are trying to build is Sammy Solis. Solis is twenty-two years old and is also pitching in Low-A. He has a 40 to 12 strikeout to walk ratio and has pitched better than his 4.02 era suggests.
In my opinion because of how far away these three prospects are (Norris, Cole, and Solis) the Nationals would have to include all four of the aforementioned players in the deal to make it worthwhile for the Royals. The only safe and Major League ready player is Drew Storen so the Nationals would really have to go above and beyond in the prospect side of things to make it worth it for the Royals.
Like the Cardinals I don't know that the Nationals have enough depth in the system to give up as much talent as it would take to make the Royals happy in a deal like this. I also could easily see the Nationals balking at the idea of trading one young closer plus prospects for another closer. But there it is, what do you think? Which of these makes the most since? Do any of these deals justify trading Soria in your mind? What do you think?
Here is why I am going to briefly touch on the Nationals though. First I imagine the two teams have good relations with one another given that they nearly were able to complete a deal that would have sent Zack Greinke to Washington for Jordan Zimmerman, Danny Espinosa, and Drew Storen. It is a shame that Dayton Moore didn't follow his mentor's advice and never include no trade clauses in contracts, because that haul would have been sweet. But I digress...
Back to why I believe the Nationals should be discussed. It seems that the Nationals are in win now mode. This sounds strange, but I truly do believe that they want to do everything it takes to win soon and build up a fan base in the Washington D.C. area. If they could win no, while the Orioles are struggling it would only be that much more beneficial to their growing fan base.
The Nationals have also blown more saves than any other team in baseball in 2011. They are currently 23 for 41 on converting save opportunities into wins. Despite this horrible figure they are one of the surprises of baseball and are currently 41-41.
I am sure the Nationals, like every other team in baseball would love to add Soria to their bullpen and his team friendly contract. Since they wouldn't be adding a one year guy they could knock out a primary offseason priority and when Strasburg returns next year and some of their young players are another year along in their development they could be ready to really contend.
There is one piece in the Nationals farm system not named Bryce Harper that would be extremely appealing to the Royals and his name is Derek Norris. Norris entered the season rated as the number 72 prospect in the game and the second best prospect in the Nationals organization.
Norris is said to have plus power potential, which was on display in low-A when he hit 23 home runs for Hagerstown. What really makes Norris stand out though his his plate discipline. For his career he has walked 308 times and struck out just 361 times. In fact in this season in his first stop in double-A, as a twenty-two year old he has walked 41 times to 57 strikeouts.
His discipline has also been his falling. He often watches too many pitches and because of it gets himself into bad counts. He is only hitting .207 but the offensive potential is definitely there. Despite this dreadful batting average he is still getting on base at a .371 clip.
He is still a bit raw defensively, but he did throw out 51% of would be base stealers a season ago. However, that number is down to 37% in 2011. Norris is said to have all star potential and is one of the top catching prospects in the minors.
The Royals would also surely be interested in acquiring Drew Storen, one of the players they thought they had acquired last winter in the nixed deal. Storen ironically was the man the Nationals drafted with the compensation pick they received for their failure to sign Aaron Crow.
It hasn't taken long for Storen to establish himself not just as an up and comer but as one of the better relief pitchers in the game. This season he has a 2.90 era and a 32:12 strikeout to walk ratio.
There are also two primary pitching prospects that would be discussed in the deal. The first is the Nationals 4th rated prospect: A.J. Cole. Cole is a 6-4, nineteen year old righty. Thus far in his first full season he has posted a 2.92 era with 46 Ks to 9 walks in 37 innings.
Cole sits in the mid 90s with above average command and a smooth delivery. His curve could be a plus pitch and his changeup is developing but as of now hit or miss. He doesn't fit in the first wave but could be a great arm to that second wave.
The other young arm that would be extremely appealing to the Royals, because of how it could play into the second wave that they are trying to build is Sammy Solis. Solis is twenty-two years old and is also pitching in Low-A. He has a 40 to 12 strikeout to walk ratio and has pitched better than his 4.02 era suggests.
In my opinion because of how far away these three prospects are (Norris, Cole, and Solis) the Nationals would have to include all four of the aforementioned players in the deal to make it worthwhile for the Royals. The only safe and Major League ready player is Drew Storen so the Nationals would really have to go above and beyond in the prospect side of things to make it worth it for the Royals.
Like the Cardinals I don't know that the Nationals have enough depth in the system to give up as much talent as it would take to make the Royals happy in a deal like this. I also could easily see the Nationals balking at the idea of trading one young closer plus prospects for another closer. But there it is, what do you think? Which of these makes the most since? Do any of these deals justify trading Soria in your mind? What do you think?
Halfway There. Living on a Prayer.
Just like that we are halfway through the Major League baseball season. Of course most people split the season into two halfs around the all star break, but for the purpose of this post we are going to use the 81 game mark. The reason? All we have to do is multiply by two and we can see some projected totals for Royal players.
Let's start with the catchers. Brayan Pena is on pace for 230 at bats this season, a number that would shatter his previous career high of 165. Of course that number could really jump should the Royals trade Matt Traenor and allow Pena to catch full time in the second half of the season.
Oh and speaking of Matt Treanor. Have you noticed how much he is walking this year? He is currently on pace for 58 walks, while playing in 104 games. He also has an on base percentage of .354. Those 58 walks would be a career high, in fact he has already set a career high when he walked for the 23rd time this season. Matt has also never played more than eighty-two games in a single season.
Over at first base Kila Ka'aihue likely won't be given an opportunity to double his numbers, and since Eric Hosmer didn't play the entire first half it renders this drill pointless for him as well so we'll move on to the "other firstbaseman" Billy Butler.
Butler is currently on pace for some monster numbers for a middle of the order hitter with 12 home runs and 68 rbi. These would be his lowest totals since his rookie season when he posted 11-55 in just 124 games. I should also add that he is on pace for 92 walks which would be the highest single season mark for a Royal since 1989 when Kevin Seitzer walked 102 times and it would shatter the previous Dayton Moore era record of 69 that Butler set in 2010.
Of course over at second base Chris Getz hot streak has really strengthened his projected numbers for the year. Getz who is batting .343 in his last 19 games is now on pace to get 128 hits which would be a career high, while stealing 28 bases which would also be a career high.
When we shift to the other side of the bag we find another middle infielder whose recent hot streak has moved his numbers out of abysmal territory. Alcides Escobar is also on pace for a few career highs: hits (140), doubles (24), rbi (42), and steals (24).
Wilson Betemit playing in part time duty once again, is on pace for 30 doubles and the highest single season WAR of his career at 1.8. His home run power has taken a severe drop and he is only on pace for 4 home runs this season, 9 less than last season despite being on pace for 100 more at bats.
Melky Cabrera is having more pop in his bat this season than any other and if he continues at his current pace will post career highs in home runs (18), doubles (36), and slugging percentage (.428). Despite playing the worst defense of his career he is still on pace for a career high 2.2 WAR.
Jeff Francoeur of course is doing exactly what Dayton Moore brough him in to do. Currently he projects to hit 22 homers, the highest total since his sophomore season when he hit 29. He also figures to finish with 94 rbis and 36 doubles. Not to mention that he would finish with a career high 26 steals. his previous high was 8. He is also on pace for 38 walks, just 5 more than his 162 game average.
Mitch Maier has starred in bench duty. He is having the best season of his career based on the stats that start with a decimal point. However, he is also only on pace for 86 at bats which would be the lowest figure for his career when you remove his 13 at bat 2006 season.
Finally we get to Alex Gordon whose season is easily the best of his career. He is on pace for 186 hits and while he has totally change his approach at the plate, he is also on pace to tie his career high in walks at 66. He also projects to hit 48 doubles, 8 triples, 18 home runs, and score 90 runs. All of these would be career highs. He projects to post a 5.6 WAR.
On the pitching side of things it has been much more grim. Hochevar may be having the best season of his young career. He is on pace to wipe out his previous 0.5 WAR when he finished the year with a 0.6 mark. He is on pace to post career high marks in walks and home runs allowed, while only tying his career high mark in strikeouts. He has been an innings eater (on pace for 210 innings) which is something that shouldn't be taken forgranted with the young pen.
Jeff Francis's era of 4.79 is in line with his career figure of 4.77. He is on pace to eclipse the 200 inning mark for the first time since 2007. But his strikeouts per 9 innings are down to 4.0, from his previous career low of 5.8.
Kyle Davies continues to epically suck. While Bruce Chen continues to drink from the fountain of youth. His 3.46 era would be his best mark since 2004 when he pitched in 8 games for the Baltimore Orioles.
The bullpen is young and has been very strong. But since most are rookies there isn't much to compare their numbers too, exceopt for the closer Joakim Soria. Soria having the worst year of his career. He is on pace to give up the most home runs and walks in his career while recording the fewest strikeouts despite pitching in the most innings since his rookie season.
As a team the Royals are on pace for 66 wins which would place them right in between the 2009 and 2010 win totals. 696 runs scored the most since Dayton Moore's first full season when the team scored 706 times. Finaly they are on pace for 794 runs allowed the lowest since 2008 when the team gave up 781.
Let's start with the catchers. Brayan Pena is on pace for 230 at bats this season, a number that would shatter his previous career high of 165. Of course that number could really jump should the Royals trade Matt Traenor and allow Pena to catch full time in the second half of the season.
Oh and speaking of Matt Treanor. Have you noticed how much he is walking this year? He is currently on pace for 58 walks, while playing in 104 games. He also has an on base percentage of .354. Those 58 walks would be a career high, in fact he has already set a career high when he walked for the 23rd time this season. Matt has also never played more than eighty-two games in a single season.
Over at first base Kila Ka'aihue likely won't be given an opportunity to double his numbers, and since Eric Hosmer didn't play the entire first half it renders this drill pointless for him as well so we'll move on to the "other firstbaseman" Billy Butler.
Butler is currently on pace for some monster numbers for a middle of the order hitter with 12 home runs and 68 rbi. These would be his lowest totals since his rookie season when he posted 11-55 in just 124 games. I should also add that he is on pace for 92 walks which would be the highest single season mark for a Royal since 1989 when Kevin Seitzer walked 102 times and it would shatter the previous Dayton Moore era record of 69 that Butler set in 2010.
Of course over at second base Chris Getz hot streak has really strengthened his projected numbers for the year. Getz who is batting .343 in his last 19 games is now on pace to get 128 hits which would be a career high, while stealing 28 bases which would also be a career high.
When we shift to the other side of the bag we find another middle infielder whose recent hot streak has moved his numbers out of abysmal territory. Alcides Escobar is also on pace for a few career highs: hits (140), doubles (24), rbi (42), and steals (24).
Wilson Betemit playing in part time duty once again, is on pace for 30 doubles and the highest single season WAR of his career at 1.8. His home run power has taken a severe drop and he is only on pace for 4 home runs this season, 9 less than last season despite being on pace for 100 more at bats.
Melky Cabrera is having more pop in his bat this season than any other and if he continues at his current pace will post career highs in home runs (18), doubles (36), and slugging percentage (.428). Despite playing the worst defense of his career he is still on pace for a career high 2.2 WAR.
Jeff Francoeur of course is doing exactly what Dayton Moore brough him in to do. Currently he projects to hit 22 homers, the highest total since his sophomore season when he hit 29. He also figures to finish with 94 rbis and 36 doubles. Not to mention that he would finish with a career high 26 steals. his previous high was 8. He is also on pace for 38 walks, just 5 more than his 162 game average.
Mitch Maier has starred in bench duty. He is having the best season of his career based on the stats that start with a decimal point. However, he is also only on pace for 86 at bats which would be the lowest figure for his career when you remove his 13 at bat 2006 season.
Finally we get to Alex Gordon whose season is easily the best of his career. He is on pace for 186 hits and while he has totally change his approach at the plate, he is also on pace to tie his career high in walks at 66. He also projects to hit 48 doubles, 8 triples, 18 home runs, and score 90 runs. All of these would be career highs. He projects to post a 5.6 WAR.
On the pitching side of things it has been much more grim. Hochevar may be having the best season of his young career. He is on pace to wipe out his previous 0.5 WAR when he finished the year with a 0.6 mark. He is on pace to post career high marks in walks and home runs allowed, while only tying his career high mark in strikeouts. He has been an innings eater (on pace for 210 innings) which is something that shouldn't be taken forgranted with the young pen.
Jeff Francis's era of 4.79 is in line with his career figure of 4.77. He is on pace to eclipse the 200 inning mark for the first time since 2007. But his strikeouts per 9 innings are down to 4.0, from his previous career low of 5.8.
Kyle Davies continues to epically suck. While Bruce Chen continues to drink from the fountain of youth. His 3.46 era would be his best mark since 2004 when he pitched in 8 games for the Baltimore Orioles.
The bullpen is young and has been very strong. But since most are rookies there isn't much to compare their numbers too, exceopt for the closer Joakim Soria. Soria having the worst year of his career. He is on pace to give up the most home runs and walks in his career while recording the fewest strikeouts despite pitching in the most innings since his rookie season.
As a team the Royals are on pace for 66 wins which would place them right in between the 2009 and 2010 win totals. 696 runs scored the most since Dayton Moore's first full season when the team scored 706 times. Finaly they are on pace for 794 runs allowed the lowest since 2008 when the team gave up 781.
Thursday, June 30, 2011
What to do with Joakim; Part 3
JThere are two other teams that I would like to speculate on. The first is the Texas Rangers and the second will be the Washington Nationals.
The Texas have made news recently, first for their rumored interest in K-Rod and then later when they denied having interest. Even more recently the Rangers have stated that they would be interested in upgrading their bullpen, but that they are currently content in what they have.
Texas is currently 21 of 33 in converting their save opportunities. Neftali Feliz has stabled after a rough, but Arthur Rhodes and David Bush have both struggled and the bullpen has definitely been a weakness for a Rangers squad that has hopes of reaching the World Series again in 2011.
Another reason that I believe the Rangers would be interested in Joakim Soria is that by acquiring an elite closer they could move Feliz to the rotation, something that they desperately wanted to do last Spring. They probably wouldn't move Feliz to the rotation this year should they acquire Soria, but the move would give their bullpen a huge boost and allow them to move Feliz for good next Spring.
Looking at what the Rangers could offer I could see it play out in a few different ways. But what the Rangers do have that the Royals would for sure covet is near Major League ready pitching. They also have a young shortstop by the name of Jurickson Profar that I would imagine the Royals would love to get their hands on.
First let's just refresh ourselves on Jurickson Profar:
Profar is well known for leading Curacao to the 2004 Little League World Series Championship. Profar has true five tool potential. He entered the season rated as the number 74 prospect by Baseball America and has done nothing to hurt that position. As an eighteen year old he has hit .268/.379/.491 line in the pitcher friendly Midwest League.
The Royals have worked hard to improve their organization depth at shortstop and with Escobar beginning to show that he could hit at the Major League level, the desire for Profar could be a bit less among Royals fans. However, if the Royals can nab Profar it would be a huge gain for this organization and he could become the star of the second wave of prospects making their way to Kansas City.
Here is a look at those pitching prospects:
Martin Perez- A lefty that entering the season ranked number twenty-four on Baseball America's top 100 ranking. Perez is also the top prospect in the Rangers system. He owns a career 3.97 era, and has posted 8.8 Ks per 9 innings to 3.5 walks. This season he is 4-2 with a 3.28 era.
Perez is only twenty years old. His fastball sits in the low 90s. He also has a very good changeup with life and a curveball that could also develop into a plus offering. He has shown improved command in 2011. The Royals were very interested in Perez the last time the two teams discussed a trade involving a star pitcher going to Texas and he seemed to be off limits. I am not sure if the Rangers would part ways with him now.
Tanner Scheppers- If the Royals wanted to add a high upside Major League ready starter this may be their guy. Since signing with Texas, Scheppers has done nothing but dominate when it comes to his peripheral numbers. In 107.2 career minor league innings he owns a 123:43 strikeout to walk rate.
Scheppers is a 6-4, righty that can dial up his fastball into the upper 90s when need be. He also displays a plus curveball and slider at times and has even showed a sinker that he throws in the low 90s. Scheppers is high upside starter, but like Royals reliever Aaron Crow he could probably immediately be a top flight reliever as well.
Robert Erlin- Rumors are that when the Royals were shopping Zack Greinke, Robert Erlin was a name that repeatedly came up in negotiations with the Texas Rangers. Erlin is a twenty-year-old left hander that so far has averaged about 10 Ks to every 1 walk in his minor league career. He boasts a 13-5 record with a 2.58 era.
Erlin isn't as far along as Perez or Scheppers, but he doesn't lack polish. It is his supreme command that has allowed him to move as quickly as he has and to command each of his pitches as well as he does. He throws a fastball in the low 90s, a curveball, and a changeup with good fading action.
Michael Kirkman- Kirkman like Erlin was also rumored to be a part of the package that the Royals were asking for in a Greinke to Texas trade. Kirkman has a low 90s fastball, a plus slider, and an average curveball and changeup. I believe that Kirkman would be a fine third piece to a deal, however I don't see enough upside in his numbers or scouting reports to believe that he could be a part of a two prospect deal.
Robert Ross- Ross is another guy that I would love see the Royals nab in a Soria deal, should the Rangers not want to trade any of the top three guys and instead want to trade a couple of the second teir guys along with Profar. Ross is a short twenty-two year old lefty that is currently dominated the Carolina League. He has a career 3.10 era in 304.2 minor league innings.
Ross has a fastbal that hits up to 93 on the gun, but can be a devastating pitch due to the tremendous life he gets on it. The fastball moves so much and in so many different ways that it can be difficult for catchers to receive the pitch. He also has a good slider and a shows potential for a good change up as well. He has a good deceptive delivery that makes him even more effective. Ross is a great kid and a hard worker and like I said, I'd love to see him join the KC organization.
Neil Ramirez- Ramirez's stock has skyrocketed in 2011 as he has made the jump from low-A all the way to triple-A where he has more than held his own. This season he has a 3.80 era while averaging 10 Ks per 9 innings. He is twenty-two years old and is a former first round pick.
His fastball normally is in the low 90s, but he can dial it up to 95. His curveball has regained its form as a top tier offering. His changeup is an average offering. He probably belongs in the Perez and Scheppers group, but given his low prospect status entering the season the Royals might be able to get a bit of a steal here. Who knows.
In order for a deal to work out between the two clubs the Rangers and Royals would have to solve their ill feelings after the Greinke deal couldn't be reached. It could be a good opportunity for both clubs to improve and move forward. In my opinion for the Royals to make the deal they would need either Profar and two of the pitchers. Or they would need two out of Perez, Scheppers, and Erlin plus a lower level prospect to make the deal. I may be asking for to much, but that is the position I believe the Royals should take.
Later today I will try to get up my thoughts on what the Nationals would be willing to offer and if they would make sense as a destination. After that I should be done speculating on Soria and the Royals potential trade partners.
The Texas have made news recently, first for their rumored interest in K-Rod and then later when they denied having interest. Even more recently the Rangers have stated that they would be interested in upgrading their bullpen, but that they are currently content in what they have.
Texas is currently 21 of 33 in converting their save opportunities. Neftali Feliz has stabled after a rough, but Arthur Rhodes and David Bush have both struggled and the bullpen has definitely been a weakness for a Rangers squad that has hopes of reaching the World Series again in 2011.
Another reason that I believe the Rangers would be interested in Joakim Soria is that by acquiring an elite closer they could move Feliz to the rotation, something that they desperately wanted to do last Spring. They probably wouldn't move Feliz to the rotation this year should they acquire Soria, but the move would give their bullpen a huge boost and allow them to move Feliz for good next Spring.
Looking at what the Rangers could offer I could see it play out in a few different ways. But what the Rangers do have that the Royals would for sure covet is near Major League ready pitching. They also have a young shortstop by the name of Jurickson Profar that I would imagine the Royals would love to get their hands on.
First let's just refresh ourselves on Jurickson Profar:
Profar is well known for leading Curacao to the 2004 Little League World Series Championship. Profar has true five tool potential. He entered the season rated as the number 74 prospect by Baseball America and has done nothing to hurt that position. As an eighteen year old he has hit .268/.379/.491 line in the pitcher friendly Midwest League.
The Royals have worked hard to improve their organization depth at shortstop and with Escobar beginning to show that he could hit at the Major League level, the desire for Profar could be a bit less among Royals fans. However, if the Royals can nab Profar it would be a huge gain for this organization and he could become the star of the second wave of prospects making their way to Kansas City.
Here is a look at those pitching prospects:
Martin Perez- A lefty that entering the season ranked number twenty-four on Baseball America's top 100 ranking. Perez is also the top prospect in the Rangers system. He owns a career 3.97 era, and has posted 8.8 Ks per 9 innings to 3.5 walks. This season he is 4-2 with a 3.28 era.
Perez is only twenty years old. His fastball sits in the low 90s. He also has a very good changeup with life and a curveball that could also develop into a plus offering. He has shown improved command in 2011. The Royals were very interested in Perez the last time the two teams discussed a trade involving a star pitcher going to Texas and he seemed to be off limits. I am not sure if the Rangers would part ways with him now.
Tanner Scheppers- If the Royals wanted to add a high upside Major League ready starter this may be their guy. Since signing with Texas, Scheppers has done nothing but dominate when it comes to his peripheral numbers. In 107.2 career minor league innings he owns a 123:43 strikeout to walk rate.
Scheppers is a 6-4, righty that can dial up his fastball into the upper 90s when need be. He also displays a plus curveball and slider at times and has even showed a sinker that he throws in the low 90s. Scheppers is high upside starter, but like Royals reliever Aaron Crow he could probably immediately be a top flight reliever as well.
Robert Erlin- Rumors are that when the Royals were shopping Zack Greinke, Robert Erlin was a name that repeatedly came up in negotiations with the Texas Rangers. Erlin is a twenty-year-old left hander that so far has averaged about 10 Ks to every 1 walk in his minor league career. He boasts a 13-5 record with a 2.58 era.
Erlin isn't as far along as Perez or Scheppers, but he doesn't lack polish. It is his supreme command that has allowed him to move as quickly as he has and to command each of his pitches as well as he does. He throws a fastball in the low 90s, a curveball, and a changeup with good fading action.
Michael Kirkman- Kirkman like Erlin was also rumored to be a part of the package that the Royals were asking for in a Greinke to Texas trade. Kirkman has a low 90s fastball, a plus slider, and an average curveball and changeup. I believe that Kirkman would be a fine third piece to a deal, however I don't see enough upside in his numbers or scouting reports to believe that he could be a part of a two prospect deal.
Robert Ross- Ross is another guy that I would love see the Royals nab in a Soria deal, should the Rangers not want to trade any of the top three guys and instead want to trade a couple of the second teir guys along with Profar. Ross is a short twenty-two year old lefty that is currently dominated the Carolina League. He has a career 3.10 era in 304.2 minor league innings.
Ross has a fastbal that hits up to 93 on the gun, but can be a devastating pitch due to the tremendous life he gets on it. The fastball moves so much and in so many different ways that it can be difficult for catchers to receive the pitch. He also has a good slider and a shows potential for a good change up as well. He has a good deceptive delivery that makes him even more effective. Ross is a great kid and a hard worker and like I said, I'd love to see him join the KC organization.
Neil Ramirez- Ramirez's stock has skyrocketed in 2011 as he has made the jump from low-A all the way to triple-A where he has more than held his own. This season he has a 3.80 era while averaging 10 Ks per 9 innings. He is twenty-two years old and is a former first round pick.
His fastball normally is in the low 90s, but he can dial it up to 95. His curveball has regained its form as a top tier offering. His changeup is an average offering. He probably belongs in the Perez and Scheppers group, but given his low prospect status entering the season the Royals might be able to get a bit of a steal here. Who knows.
In order for a deal to work out between the two clubs the Rangers and Royals would have to solve their ill feelings after the Greinke deal couldn't be reached. It could be a good opportunity for both clubs to improve and move forward. In my opinion for the Royals to make the deal they would need either Profar and two of the pitchers. Or they would need two out of Perez, Scheppers, and Erlin plus a lower level prospect to make the deal. I may be asking for to much, but that is the position I believe the Royals should take.
Later today I will try to get up my thoughts on what the Nationals would be willing to offer and if they would make sense as a destination. After that I should be done speculating on Soria and the Royals potential trade partners.
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
What to do with Joakim; Part 2
In my last post I talked about Joakim Soria and I exclusively talked about the Yankees as a potential trade destination. However, should the Royals field offers they are probably just one of several teams that would be interested.610 Sports host Bob Fescoe speculated that one of these teams that would also have interest would be the St. Louis Cardinals.
There are a couple of reasons why I believe the Cardinals should be examined is because they have only converted in 22 of 37 save opportunities. The Cardinals released former closer Ryan Franklin today. They do have Fernando Salas and he has pitched well since being given the job converting in 12 of 14 save chances. So it is extremely possible that the Cardinals could be totally comfortable with what they have which would make this entire article a waste of time. But the Cardinals also tend to have no problem trading their top prospects for immediate help.
The problem with this deal is that I can't imagine the Cardinals having enough to get the Royals to deal unless either Colby Rasmus, or Shelby Miller were included. Colby Rasmus has of course had some issues with Manager Tony La Russa last season and at one point many expected him to be dealt in the offseason.
It appears that Rasmus and the Cardinals have put the past behind them and I think it would be pretty surprising if the Cardinals dealt their young up and comer. But it is always possible that skeletons are in the closet or that the Cardinals are a bit frustrated with his .779 ops and premadonna attitude.
Shelby Miller on the other hand is often discussed as one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball. I think it would come as a real shock to the baseball world if he was moved. But if Miller was on the table, I'd really want the Royals to listen and it would make any deal involving him extremely difficult to turn down.
If either of these two blue chippers were included in the deal, it wouldn't take much for the rest of the deal to fall into place. Guys like Jordan Swaggerty, Seth Blair, Carlos Martinez could be discussed. What I am seeing though is that in order for the deal to be appealing on the Royals end it would require the Cardinals to give up too much of their young talent for it to make sense for themselves.
In addition the deal doesn't fit the Royals needs nearly as well as a potential Yankees deal would. If the Cardinals decided they were willing to move Rasmus the Royals could include Melky Cabrerra in the deal to fill the hole it would open up for the Cardinals. But unless the Cardinals were willing to deal either Rasmus or Miller, which I don't think they would be then I can't imagine a deal falling into place.
It is time for the Cardinals to hold on to their own young talent and I think they may finally be realizing this with Pujols's free agency looming.
There are a couple of reasons why I believe the Cardinals should be examined is because they have only converted in 22 of 37 save opportunities. The Cardinals released former closer Ryan Franklin today. They do have Fernando Salas and he has pitched well since being given the job converting in 12 of 14 save chances. So it is extremely possible that the Cardinals could be totally comfortable with what they have which would make this entire article a waste of time. But the Cardinals also tend to have no problem trading their top prospects for immediate help.
The problem with this deal is that I can't imagine the Cardinals having enough to get the Royals to deal unless either Colby Rasmus, or Shelby Miller were included. Colby Rasmus has of course had some issues with Manager Tony La Russa last season and at one point many expected him to be dealt in the offseason.
It appears that Rasmus and the Cardinals have put the past behind them and I think it would be pretty surprising if the Cardinals dealt their young up and comer. But it is always possible that skeletons are in the closet or that the Cardinals are a bit frustrated with his .779 ops and premadonna attitude.
Shelby Miller on the other hand is often discussed as one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball. I think it would come as a real shock to the baseball world if he was moved. But if Miller was on the table, I'd really want the Royals to listen and it would make any deal involving him extremely difficult to turn down.
If either of these two blue chippers were included in the deal, it wouldn't take much for the rest of the deal to fall into place. Guys like Jordan Swaggerty, Seth Blair, Carlos Martinez could be discussed. What I am seeing though is that in order for the deal to be appealing on the Royals end it would require the Cardinals to give up too much of their young talent for it to make sense for themselves.
In addition the deal doesn't fit the Royals needs nearly as well as a potential Yankees deal would. If the Cardinals decided they were willing to move Rasmus the Royals could include Melky Cabrerra in the deal to fill the hole it would open up for the Cardinals. But unless the Cardinals were willing to deal either Rasmus or Miller, which I don't think they would be then I can't imagine a deal falling into place.
It is time for the Cardinals to hold on to their own young talent and I think they may finally be realizing this with Pujols's free agency looming.
What to do with Joakim
It appears that after abandoning his cutter Soria has refound his pre 2011 form. This is huge news for the Royals, because if Soria would have continue to fall off the ledge as it appeared he was doing it could have really hurt the timetable for contention. The good news is that he has gotten back to being the dominant closer that we have come to know and love.
As for his role in contention it would seem that it will play out in one of two ways. (The third way which I discussed about a month ago, is obviously not a legitimate option in the organization's eyes.) The first way that Soria could play into the Royals future is as the closer. Make no mistake about it Soria could very easily fit into this team's future.
Of course now is when you respond by saying "thank you captain obvious." The reason I say this though is because when reading outside sources they often seem to act as though since the Royals aren't contending now, there is no reason to keep him when they could trade him for pieces that fit into the future wave. This thought process is flat out wrong.
Soria is under team control through 2014 and while this doesn't directly coincide with the controlled years of Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer and Danny Duffy. It does overlap by three and a half seasons. After which all three of the aforementioned players will hit arbitration and become more expensive.
People argue that it doesn't make sense for a non-contending team to keep a quality closer. However, if this team truly wants to and thinks it can contend as early as next season it will be important that the 9th inning is locked down and we know that Soria can do that.
But there is also another way in which Soria could play a key part in the future of the Kansas City Royals. That is by trading him. As we nearly found out the shelf life of elite major league closers is not nearly as long as we would like to believe. Also, given the way in which closers tend to be overvalued in comparison to their true value as judged by WAR, VORP and other sabermetic measurements it makes sense to flip a closer for more valuable parts.
If Joakim Soria has truly regained his value since his return to the closer role, then the Royals need to strongly consider offers for him. When you look at how next year's roster is taking shape there are a couple of glaring holes: starting pitching and catching. Also, when you look at the middle of the order for the coming years it would also seem that the Royals could use an elite right handed bat to stick in between Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer.
It is true that the Royals could probably get by in the catching front with a veteran in the Matt Traenor mold. They could also wait and hope that Salvador Perez pans out in the way that they are hoping. The Royals also could have that middle of the order right handed bat playing right field Northwest Arkansas right now.
But consider that Salvador Perez wasn't even rated in the top 10 catching prospects by mlb.com and that Wil Myers probably needs the rest of this season in Northwest Arkansas and could benefit by a full season in Omaha. Given this timetable he would be positioned for a promotion in mid April 2013. Effectively delaying his free agency two years later than Moustakas and Hosmer, while also positioning his controlled years closer to his peak years of control.
There is a team out there that could fit the Royals needs in a trade for Joakim Soria. It also happens to be a team that has been hot and heavy for Soria for years, and according to sources has been in discussions with the Royals on the matter for the last week. That team is the hated New York Yankees.
So let's examine what a deal could look like between the two clubs:
As for his role in contention it would seem that it will play out in one of two ways. (The third way which I discussed about a month ago, is obviously not a legitimate option in the organization's eyes.) The first way that Soria could play into the Royals future is as the closer. Make no mistake about it Soria could very easily fit into this team's future.
Of course now is when you respond by saying "thank you captain obvious." The reason I say this though is because when reading outside sources they often seem to act as though since the Royals aren't contending now, there is no reason to keep him when they could trade him for pieces that fit into the future wave. This thought process is flat out wrong.
Soria is under team control through 2014 and while this doesn't directly coincide with the controlled years of Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer and Danny Duffy. It does overlap by three and a half seasons. After which all three of the aforementioned players will hit arbitration and become more expensive.
People argue that it doesn't make sense for a non-contending team to keep a quality closer. However, if this team truly wants to and thinks it can contend as early as next season it will be important that the 9th inning is locked down and we know that Soria can do that.
But there is also another way in which Soria could play a key part in the future of the Kansas City Royals. That is by trading him. As we nearly found out the shelf life of elite major league closers is not nearly as long as we would like to believe. Also, given the way in which closers tend to be overvalued in comparison to their true value as judged by WAR, VORP and other sabermetic measurements it makes sense to flip a closer for more valuable parts.
If Joakim Soria has truly regained his value since his return to the closer role, then the Royals need to strongly consider offers for him. When you look at how next year's roster is taking shape there are a couple of glaring holes: starting pitching and catching. Also, when you look at the middle of the order for the coming years it would also seem that the Royals could use an elite right handed bat to stick in between Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer.
It is true that the Royals could probably get by in the catching front with a veteran in the Matt Traenor mold. They could also wait and hope that Salvador Perez pans out in the way that they are hoping. The Royals also could have that middle of the order right handed bat playing right field Northwest Arkansas right now.
But consider that Salvador Perez wasn't even rated in the top 10 catching prospects by mlb.com and that Wil Myers probably needs the rest of this season in Northwest Arkansas and could benefit by a full season in Omaha. Given this timetable he would be positioned for a promotion in mid April 2013. Effectively delaying his free agency two years later than Moustakas and Hosmer, while also positioning his controlled years closer to his peak years of control.
There is a team out there that could fit the Royals needs in a trade for Joakim Soria. It also happens to be a team that has been hot and heavy for Soria for years, and according to sources has been in discussions with the Royals on the matter for the last week. That team is the hated New York Yankees.
So let's examine what a deal could look like between the two clubs:
The Must Have
Jesus Montero
Here is the guy that could be placed fourth in the Royals future order. He entered the season as the number three prospect in baseball. He is a career .309/.366/.494 hitter in the minors despite being considerably younger than the competition at every stop. He is right handed catcher that is just twenty-one years old and has already shown the ability to hit at the triple-A level. He boasts a 70 on both the batting and power scouting scales and has drawn comparisons to Miguel Cabrera.
The downside is that Montero positions himself at catcher on the diamond, even though most don't believe he can actually play catcher. If the Royals acquired him a trade they could either bite the bullet and deal with him at catcher like the Mets did with Mike Piazza or they would have to find a creative solution. This solution could either be moving Eric Hosmer to an outfield corner, or trading their other top trading chip Billy Butler to allow Montero to become a full time designated hitter.
The Wish We Could Get Him Too
Austin Romine
Romine entered the season rated as the number six prospect in the Yankees organization and the number 98th overall according to Baseball America. Romine is considered a well rounded prospect that has a good shot at staying behind the plate. Reports are that he has cut down on his passed balls, however, he still owns just a 25% career caught stealing percentage. Scouts say he has a strong arm so I speculate that this is more mechanics and footwork than anything else.
Romine has improved his catching and his bat. This season he is hitting .291/.353/.408 in double-A. If he was acquired he could catch the remainder of the season in Omaha and if he showed enough with the bat could be given the opportunity to open the 2012 season as catcher for the Royals.
It would seem strange that the Yankees would be willing to part with two of their strong catching prospects. However, I speculate that since the Yankees have a short term solution in Russel Martin they may be willing to wait for Gary Sanchez who could be the best of the bunch. They also have J.R. Murphy who is a pretty good catching prospect himself.
One or Two of these Guys
Dellin Betances
Betances entered the 2011 rated as the number 43 prospect by Baseball America and as the third best prospect in the Yankees organization. He is a 6-8 righty that can dial it up into the mid 90s. He also has a great curve that some rate as a 70 on the scouting scale. Whether he winds up as a front in starter or dominant reliever will hinge on his change up which is average at best. Some scouts believe that the change up could one day be his third plus offering.
Betances currently boasts a 2.37 era in 64 innings at the double-A level. He could be Major League ready by Opening Day next season and could be a work horse front end guy. I am not sure if the Yankees would consider dealing him in a trade already involving Jesus Montero, but he along with the next pitcher would have to be at the top of the list of pitchers to inquire about.
Manny Banuelos
Interestingly enough Banuelos entered the year ranked fourth in the Yankees system behind Betances, but 41st overall two spots ahead of Betances in Baseball America's top 100. Banuelos is listed at 5-10, 155 and pitches from the opposite side of the rubber as Betances. The Mexican native normally sits in the low 90s but has hit 95 on the gun in the past.
Banuelos is also regarded for having top notch command. His changeup and curveball could one day be plus pitches and are already above average offerings. Banuelos has currently logged 69.1 innings this season in Double-A. He has a 3.38 era while posting the highest walk rate of his career at 4.8 per 9. The Yankees seem to be enamored with Banuelos so I don't know that the Royals could pry him away in a deal.
Hector Noesi
Noesi doesn't have quite the prospect flair as either of the two other pitchers we have discussed, but he is just twenty-four years old and owns a 3.20 career era over 373.2 minor league innings. He has only pitched in 20.2 innings so far in 2011, but has posted a 3.92 era in Triple-A. The concern is that his walk rate has spiked in those innings and his k rate has taken a dip.
He is near major league ready, but only really projects as a back end starter. His fastball sits in the low 90s, and he has a good changeup with tailing action. But without a breaking pitch his potential is limited.
Adam Warren
Warren like Noesi has been an extremely effective starter in the minors despite not having the prospect status like Banuelos or Betances. Warren owns a career minor league era of 2.45 with a k:bb of 3:1. His fastball hits the lows 90s with a bit of deception. He has a fringey changeup and throws a cutter and curveball that need to develop for him to be a front end guy. If his breaking stuff doesn't develop his fastball could be good enough to land him in a big league bullpen.
David Phelps
Phelps is very similar to Adam Warren. Phelps often works in the low 90s and he also has a decent curveball. Entering the season it was said that he needs to develop his change up into an average pitch at least in order to really develop into a strong prospect. He may be doing that considering he has a 3.38 era in 85.1 innings for Triple-A Scranton. His k rate is currently 7.8 and his walk rate is 2.3. These numbers suggest that he is near Major League ready.
In my opinion the Royals would need to get the following Jesus Montero, plus either Austin Romine, Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos, and also one of Hector Noesi, Adam Warren, or David Phelps. Another prospect that could be discussed is Slade Heathcott. He doesn't directly fit into the Royals needs for contention, but the guy has five tool potential and could be a steal if the Royals acquired him.
It'll be tough for the Royals to pull the trigger in a deal for Joakim Soria. He represents so much to the organization and particularly the scouting department. They shouldn't make the deal unless they are blown away. But it is possible that a deal could be presented to make the move worthwhile.
If the Royals can fill multiple holes by dealing Soria it could push them closer to contention. If they traded Soria in a deal like the one I just mentioned they could then also look to move Billy Butler, given that Montero could take his spot at DH. Crow could move into the closer's spot and another starter could be ready to fight for a rotation spot.
The Royals are in a good position there are two routes they could move in. They could stand pat and play it safe. Giving them a closer for the next three and half seasons that could be lights out. Or they could roll the dice and risk winding up with less, opening a hole at the back end of the pen while not filling the holes they were expecting to. Or the trade could pay off and Crow becomes a dominate closer, with Montero becoming the second coming of Cabrera and a pitcher establishing themselves as a key member of the rotation.
What do you think?
Friday, June 3, 2011
A Modest Proposition.
Let me preface this post by stating I don't expect the Royals to take the route that I am about to suggest. I myself am not totally convinced that it would be the wisest move, but I have thought about it a bit and I want to throw my thoughts out there for Royals fans. It would be a bold move and the potential reward would be great.
The fact is that for whatever reason Joakim Soria isn't the pitcher that we have grown to love. There are no obvious signs mechanically for why this is the case, but looking at his numbers it is blatantly obvious that he has lost his command. But if it isn't a mechanical issue why has he lost the ability to feel his pitches? We'll get back to this in a second.
But what Soria's shakiness and demotion could be for the Royals is opportunity. When Soria took over as closer for the Royals in 2007, he quickly established himself as one of the premier closers in the game. He never had your typical closer's stuff, and many considered his array of pitches more in line with what you would expect from a starter. What Soria did have was the "closer mentality." Joakim was Mr. Cool. Even when a team would get a rally going or when Joakim would enter the game in a tight spot it was obvious that he wasn't concerned.
This season, however, he hasn't gave off that same vibe of confidence. He has gotten behind in the count early and often and because of this hasn't had the benefit of getting hitters off balance. His walk rate is 3.8 which is by far the highest of his career. I believe that the reason Soria has fallen off is that his mentality is gone.
I have no idea why Soria has lost his killer instinct, or what has caused this but at this point it is nowhere to be found. Just look at this quotation from Soria in today's KC Star:
“I felt I had better command today,” Soria said. “I didn’t change anything in my mechanics. I just go ahead and try to change my mentality a little bit.”
This statement strikes me as a guy that is just trying to get his mound presence back. So if his stuff is still sharp... and if his command is still there when he is composed (he threw five of six first pitch strikes yesterday)... then maybe now is the prime opportunity for the Royals to move him to the rotation. This would be especially easy at this point, because there is no longer of the fear of breaking something that didn't need fixing.
Obviously if the Royals attempt this there is the possibility that something could go wrong. It is natural to think that if he can't hack it as a reliever then why would he hack it as a starter? But like I said stuff doesn't seem to be the concern, and it was always his mentality that really put him into that closer role.
You could make the point that Soria could be prone to injury should the Royals attempt to stretch him out? That is a valid fear, but it wouldn't be the first time a reliever has been given the opportunity and when Soria has been injured in the past the cause was believed to be lack of consistent innings, not because he was logging to many innings.
Even when Soria has been effective as a reliever his WAR has been on average 2.0 according to fangraphs. Don't get me wrong this is about as high as one could expect from a relief pitcher. However, in 2010 there were ninety-four pitchers that posted a stronger total. Meaning Soria was considered as valuable as starters like Paul Maholm, Carlos Silva, Barry Zito and oh yeah, Kyle Davies posted a WAR of 2.0 in 2010.
What this means is that even though Soria had the ninth best WAR among relievers in 2010, his value didn't lead to anymore Royals wins then Kyle Davies. Let that sink in. Now the value of a closer will not cease to be a hot topic among traditionalists and sabermetricians anytime soon. It seems that using this argument we are seeing at least a somewhat undervaluation. However, even if that is the case Soria would be much more valuable to the team in the rotation than in the bullpen.
What we see in this illustration is that even if Soria transitioned to the rotation and he didn't become the ace or frontline guy that many would expect, he would still be vastly more valuable as a 3 or 4 starter than he would be as a closer. This is definitely something that should not be overlooked.
Value is something that the Royals will need to maximize, especially with the rotation in the short run if they truly want to contend in 2012. Right now there pessimism brewing regarding the farm system particularly the young arms up at the top. Danny Duffy has performed well, but Mike Montgomery has struggled more than anticipated, John Lamb is out for the season, and Chris Dwyer has been dreadful. What this means is that the Royals may not have the arms to contend as early as next season, unless they either think creatively, look outside the organization or both.
By moving Soria to the rotation you could be potentially be adding a frontline arm without shelling out the cash on the free agent market that it would take to acquire one. At this point the rotation options for opening day next year are: Danny Duffy, Luke Hochevar, Sean O'Sullivan, Vin Mazzaro, and Mike Montgomery if he is able to right the ship. Not exactly an awe-inspiring bunch.
Duffy will be a strength and Hochevar seems to warrant a spot, but I don't believe that O'Sullivan and Mazzaro have done anything to show they are more than AAAA guys and even if Montgomery becomes the ace that we are hoping for by next season, the Royals still have two gaping holes. Soria, could be the answer that we are looking for.
If the Royals believe that Soria's struggles are due to command issues, perhaps they should take the same route they did with Jeremy Jeffress. Let him start, give him the greatest opportunity to improve or get back his command. The most critical thing is that Soria is able to regain his value and if a move to the rotation does that it will be the best thing for all of us.
But if Soria's struggles are rooted purely in mentality as I am suggesting, the opportunity is there for the Royals to improve on an area of great weakness. Crow moves into the closer role and does his thing, with Joakim Soria becoming the frontline guy that Kansas City is lacking right now. If that turns out to be the case then we can really start to gear up for contention in 2012.
The fact is that for whatever reason Joakim Soria isn't the pitcher that we have grown to love. There are no obvious signs mechanically for why this is the case, but looking at his numbers it is blatantly obvious that he has lost his command. But if it isn't a mechanical issue why has he lost the ability to feel his pitches? We'll get back to this in a second.
But what Soria's shakiness and demotion could be for the Royals is opportunity. When Soria took over as closer for the Royals in 2007, he quickly established himself as one of the premier closers in the game. He never had your typical closer's stuff, and many considered his array of pitches more in line with what you would expect from a starter. What Soria did have was the "closer mentality." Joakim was Mr. Cool. Even when a team would get a rally going or when Joakim would enter the game in a tight spot it was obvious that he wasn't concerned.
This season, however, he hasn't gave off that same vibe of confidence. He has gotten behind in the count early and often and because of this hasn't had the benefit of getting hitters off balance. His walk rate is 3.8 which is by far the highest of his career. I believe that the reason Soria has fallen off is that his mentality is gone.
I have no idea why Soria has lost his killer instinct, or what has caused this but at this point it is nowhere to be found. Just look at this quotation from Soria in today's KC Star:
“I felt I had better command today,” Soria said. “I didn’t change anything in my mechanics. I just go ahead and try to change my mentality a little bit.”
This statement strikes me as a guy that is just trying to get his mound presence back. So if his stuff is still sharp... and if his command is still there when he is composed (he threw five of six first pitch strikes yesterday)... then maybe now is the prime opportunity for the Royals to move him to the rotation. This would be especially easy at this point, because there is no longer of the fear of breaking something that didn't need fixing.
Obviously if the Royals attempt this there is the possibility that something could go wrong. It is natural to think that if he can't hack it as a reliever then why would he hack it as a starter? But like I said stuff doesn't seem to be the concern, and it was always his mentality that really put him into that closer role.
You could make the point that Soria could be prone to injury should the Royals attempt to stretch him out? That is a valid fear, but it wouldn't be the first time a reliever has been given the opportunity and when Soria has been injured in the past the cause was believed to be lack of consistent innings, not because he was logging to many innings.
Even when Soria has been effective as a reliever his WAR has been on average 2.0 according to fangraphs. Don't get me wrong this is about as high as one could expect from a relief pitcher. However, in 2010 there were ninety-four pitchers that posted a stronger total. Meaning Soria was considered as valuable as starters like Paul Maholm, Carlos Silva, Barry Zito and oh yeah, Kyle Davies posted a WAR of 2.0 in 2010.
What this means is that even though Soria had the ninth best WAR among relievers in 2010, his value didn't lead to anymore Royals wins then Kyle Davies. Let that sink in. Now the value of a closer will not cease to be a hot topic among traditionalists and sabermetricians anytime soon. It seems that using this argument we are seeing at least a somewhat undervaluation. However, even if that is the case Soria would be much more valuable to the team in the rotation than in the bullpen.
What we see in this illustration is that even if Soria transitioned to the rotation and he didn't become the ace or frontline guy that many would expect, he would still be vastly more valuable as a 3 or 4 starter than he would be as a closer. This is definitely something that should not be overlooked.
Value is something that the Royals will need to maximize, especially with the rotation in the short run if they truly want to contend in 2012. Right now there pessimism brewing regarding the farm system particularly the young arms up at the top. Danny Duffy has performed well, but Mike Montgomery has struggled more than anticipated, John Lamb is out for the season, and Chris Dwyer has been dreadful. What this means is that the Royals may not have the arms to contend as early as next season, unless they either think creatively, look outside the organization or both.
By moving Soria to the rotation you could be potentially be adding a frontline arm without shelling out the cash on the free agent market that it would take to acquire one. At this point the rotation options for opening day next year are: Danny Duffy, Luke Hochevar, Sean O'Sullivan, Vin Mazzaro, and Mike Montgomery if he is able to right the ship. Not exactly an awe-inspiring bunch.
Duffy will be a strength and Hochevar seems to warrant a spot, but I don't believe that O'Sullivan and Mazzaro have done anything to show they are more than AAAA guys and even if Montgomery becomes the ace that we are hoping for by next season, the Royals still have two gaping holes. Soria, could be the answer that we are looking for.
If the Royals believe that Soria's struggles are due to command issues, perhaps they should take the same route they did with Jeremy Jeffress. Let him start, give him the greatest opportunity to improve or get back his command. The most critical thing is that Soria is able to regain his value and if a move to the rotation does that it will be the best thing for all of us.
But if Soria's struggles are rooted purely in mentality as I am suggesting, the opportunity is there for the Royals to improve on an area of great weakness. Crow moves into the closer role and does his thing, with Joakim Soria becoming the frontline guy that Kansas City is lacking right now. If that turns out to be the case then we can really start to gear up for contention in 2012.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)