The hot stove is just getting warmed up, but we've already heard on several occasions that the Royals are interested in Darren O'Day and Joakim Soria. If you are like me then you read this and immediately brushed it off as the club doing their due diligence. Before I go any further, I want to be clear that I do believe that is the case. However, let's take a moment and allow ourselves to believe that the Royals are seriously considering adding Soria or O'Day to the back end of their bullpen.
O'Day has been one of the very best relievers in all of baseball over the last four seasons and in the last two seasons Soria has returned to his pre-2012 form. For the Royals, either pitcher would immediately be slotted into the back of the bullpen and join the triumvirate of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, and Luke Hochevar. It is in large part due to this that the acquisition of either feels more like overkill and a waste of resources in regards to the 2016 team.
What if the Royals intention to pursue O'Day or Soria isn't because they want to make their back of the bullpen 4 deep? What if it is because they are looking to flip one of HHD for an outfielder, second baseman, or starting pitcher. It is no secret that this year's free agent market is exceptionally shallow in the relief pitching department. If the Royals could land O'Day or Soria, not only would it lessen the blow should they move Davis, Herrera, or Hochevar, but it would also help to corner the relief market. This would allow the Royals even more negotiating power.
If the Royals were to pursue this sign a relief pitcher, trade a relief pitcher then who would be most likely to be moved? Luke Hochevar would be the least painful to part with. He is owed $5.5 million in 2016 and then has a $7 million mutual option for 2017. Unfortunately, Hochevar is the least painful for a reason. His peripherals were very strong in 2015 and he is said to have closer stuff, but the 3.73 ERA and 4.00 WHIP don't scream closer.
Kelvin Herrera will make approximately $2.5 million in 2016 and has three more years of control before he hits free agency. This and his career 2.60 ERA would make him an extremely valuable commodity on the trade market. I think most in the industry would be perfectly fine with handing the ball to Herrera to get the final three outs of the game.
Wade Davis is owed $8 million for 2016, and has a team option of $10 million for the 2017 season. For arguably the top reliever in baseball this is a bargain. If the Royals signed O'Day to a two year $16 million contract, would it make sense to then slide him into the closer role and trade Davis? Royal Revival's sources have told us that last offseason the Royals were close to moving Davis for a starting pitcher.
Personally, I think this strategy makes sense. Obviously, there is risk that by dealing from a strength you could damage it to a point where it is no longer a strength. We also know that relief pitching is one of the most fickle things in all of baseball. The shelf life for top tier relievers typically isn't long. We were reminded of that just a couple of months ago by Greg Holland. It was rumored that Dayton Moore had opportunities to move Soria for quality packages prior to his injury. It bares to reason, that the Royals likely could have netter a good haul for Holland last offseason. In both cases Dayton Moore held on to his chips too long. Maybe this go around it will be different.
As far as what the Royals could acquire. I think there is good reason to believe that for either Davis or Herrera the Royals would be looking for a piece that they could immediately slide into the back of the rotation or a corner outfield spot. In addition to that they likely could get a prospect of decent value as well. As a long time Jackie Bradley Jr. fan, I'd love to see the Royals match up with Boston to bring the former 1st round pick to Kansas City. Boston is said to be in the market for back end help and there has been rumors that they'd move Bradley Jr or Rusney Castillo plus to get Aroldis Chapman.
As I said when I started this post, I don't believe the Royals will take this route. I'm not even sure that they should take this route. However, I think it is interesting food for thought. If the Royals were to sign O'Day then trade Wade Davis to Boston for Bradley Jr. plus a prospect, they would be able to fill one of their holes without dipping into their free agent budget. Of course, if Hochevar was enough to grab Bradley Jr. from Boston, I'd jump on that deal in a heartbeat.
Edit: Approximately 1 hour after the writing of this post, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com said that Jackie Bradley has generated trade interest from the Royals and Cubs.
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Showing posts with label Boston Red Sox. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Boston Red Sox. Show all posts
Thursday, November 12, 2015
Wednesday, September 28, 2011
Domin-Chen in One Game Playoff
Ken Rosenthal greeted us this morning with what I find to be an incredibly intriguing bit of rumor. The Red Sox are interested in acquiring a starter for a potential one game playoff against the Rays. At the top of their list? Bruce Chen.
The Rays of course have struggled at times this season against Left Handed pitching and by bringing a starter the Red Sox could avoid using Wakefield or Lackey on just three days rest.
To be blunt the Red Sox are desperate. They are in the midst of one of, if not the, worst September collapse in baseball history. With that being said I don't feel like a trade for Bruce Chen would be as desperate as it would seem on the surface.
Bruce Chen is going to be a type B free agent at the end of the season. As we have seen in the past couple of seasons teams are really starting to understand the true value of compensation picks. Last winter the Blue Jays traded for Miguel Olivo just so they could net a comp pick for him.
For this reason the Royals should absolutely demand at least the equivalent of a 2012 draft Sandwich selection. Quite frankly they should demand just a little more considering, Bruce Chen would be getting the opportunity to salvage the Red Sox season in a one game playoff.
If the Red Sox are willing to pay this price the Royals should absolutely do the deal. Then they could bring back Bruce Chen next season AND receive value for him. As opposed to if they elect to hang on to him, only being able to receive value OR bring him back. You can't get the compensation pick if you resign the player.
Personally I can't see the Red Sox offering the value necessary to make this deal worth it from a Royals perspective. I think they are hoping the Royals don't value the potential pick highly enough and trade Chen for a lottery ticket.
Obviously Chen is slated to be on the hill for the Royals tonight, so the Red Sox better get to work if they truly want to Red Sox nation to be screaming C'mon Chen against the Rays in a couple of days.
The Rays of course have struggled at times this season against Left Handed pitching and by bringing a starter the Red Sox could avoid using Wakefield or Lackey on just three days rest.
To be blunt the Red Sox are desperate. They are in the midst of one of, if not the, worst September collapse in baseball history. With that being said I don't feel like a trade for Bruce Chen would be as desperate as it would seem on the surface.
Bruce Chen is going to be a type B free agent at the end of the season. As we have seen in the past couple of seasons teams are really starting to understand the true value of compensation picks. Last winter the Blue Jays traded for Miguel Olivo just so they could net a comp pick for him.
For this reason the Royals should absolutely demand at least the equivalent of a 2012 draft Sandwich selection. Quite frankly they should demand just a little more considering, Bruce Chen would be getting the opportunity to salvage the Red Sox season in a one game playoff.
If the Red Sox are willing to pay this price the Royals should absolutely do the deal. Then they could bring back Bruce Chen next season AND receive value for him. As opposed to if they elect to hang on to him, only being able to receive value OR bring him back. You can't get the compensation pick if you resign the player.
Personally I can't see the Red Sox offering the value necessary to make this deal worth it from a Royals perspective. I think they are hoping the Royals don't value the potential pick highly enough and trade Chen for a lottery ticket.
Obviously Chen is slated to be on the hill for the Royals tonight, so the Red Sox better get to work if they truly want to Red Sox nation to be screaming C'mon Chen against the Rays in a couple of days.
Saturday, July 30, 2011
Mike Aviles to Boston
For the second time in the past week and a half the Royals have traded a utility infielder to a contending team. For the second time the Royals didn't receive a game changing prospect, but in this instance the Royals haul does make since for the team as it pushes itself into contention in the coming years.
Those of us that extensively follow the Royals Minor League system have begun to keep an eye out for guys that could be utility options for the Big League club. This will be an important role to fill. What happens is that often times the big name prospects stick to one position in the minors not allowing them the defensive flexibility it takes to be a strong bench piece should they not nab a starting job.
Enter Mike Aviles who despite being under team control through 2014, he was set to be arbitration eligible for the first time next season and is already 30 years old. Given his age it is safe to assume that he is already on the downside of his career offensively, and given how he is unhappy being a bench player he doesn't strike me as being the bench guy the Royals will want for the future.
Yesterday Aviles told the Kansas City Star that he hasn't handled his move to the bench great. He also said “I feel I’ve been an everyday player my whole career. And every time I play on an everyday basis, I’ve been able to produce when healthy."
Well I'm sorry Mike but let's not be dumb. Virtually every Major Leaguer was an everyday player their whole careers in the Minor Leagues. Unfortunately some guys wind up as utility players. Aviles has good versatility, but the sooner he can accept his role and career as a utility man the better off he'll be. I imagine playing for a contender might help this transition for him.
For Aviles the Royals received twenty-three year old utility man Yamaico Navarro and
twenty-three year old righty Kendal Volz. Navarro entered the season ranked 12th in the Red Sox organization according to Baseball America and was considered a C+ prospect as judged by John Sickels. Volz didn't crack Baseball America's top 30, but was also considered a C+ in John Sickels eyes.
Navarro will join the Royals tonight in Cleveland and becomes the utility man we have been looking for. Here are the highlights from what Soxprospects.com had to say on Navarro: "above average power for a middle infielder...a little too aggressive at the plate...average speed...tools to be above average defender at shortstop and third base...sure glove, above average arm" It also says that he has gotten reps in the outfield to improve his versatility.
Entering the season Baseball America also said that Navarro possessed the power potential to hit 15-20 home runs a year. BA went on to say that he could be an everyday second or third baseman, but would probably be a quality utilityman for a contending team.
The Royals will likely control Navarro's rights through the 2017 season. As a utility man he could play a big role in the Royals success through those seasons. With the power potential he also should have value as a pinch hitter. Just another bonus stacked on top of his defensive versatility.
The Royals also obtained Kendal Volz. I like the numbers on Volz this season in High-A Salem. He has been moved to the pen full time and through 51 innings has a 10.8 K rate to just 2.1 walks per 9 innings. Volz has a low 90s fastball, with a decent slider and change.
Entering the year some viewed Volz as a guy with backend rotation potential, but I envision the Royals leaving him in the pen and assigning him to Wilmington. If he pitches well there he could be called up for a title run in Northwest Arkansas.
I'll admit that I was never a huge Mike Aviles fan. He hit well in his rookie campaign, but other than the last few weeks of last season never displayed the same hitting prowess. He was always a frustrating guy to watch for me.
It is natural for a guy to want to play every day and I would hope that every player wants to perform well enough to warrant that opportunity. However, Aviles struck me as a guy that used his role as an excuse for his numbers rather than using his opportunity to warrant a starting spot.
Like I said Navarro isn't a game changer. But if all goes well he could be an extremely useful bench piece for the next six seasons and this is something that would really help the Royals get over the hump. Volz represents the old Braves philosophy of nabbing an interesting arm in every trade. Nonetheless he could turn himself iinto a decent relief prospect.
Of course both could flop and Aviles could use Fenway's hitter friendly dimensions to his advantage and pepper the Green Monster with doubles. On paper though this is a good move for both the Royals and Red Sox and that is how trades are supposed to work.
Those of us that extensively follow the Royals Minor League system have begun to keep an eye out for guys that could be utility options for the Big League club. This will be an important role to fill. What happens is that often times the big name prospects stick to one position in the minors not allowing them the defensive flexibility it takes to be a strong bench piece should they not nab a starting job.
Enter Mike Aviles who despite being under team control through 2014, he was set to be arbitration eligible for the first time next season and is already 30 years old. Given his age it is safe to assume that he is already on the downside of his career offensively, and given how he is unhappy being a bench player he doesn't strike me as being the bench guy the Royals will want for the future.
Yesterday Aviles told the Kansas City Star that he hasn't handled his move to the bench great. He also said “I feel I’ve been an everyday player my whole career. And every time I play on an everyday basis, I’ve been able to produce when healthy."
Well I'm sorry Mike but let's not be dumb. Virtually every Major Leaguer was an everyday player their whole careers in the Minor Leagues. Unfortunately some guys wind up as utility players. Aviles has good versatility, but the sooner he can accept his role and career as a utility man the better off he'll be. I imagine playing for a contender might help this transition for him.
For Aviles the Royals received twenty-three year old utility man Yamaico Navarro and
twenty-three year old righty Kendal Volz. Navarro entered the season ranked 12th in the Red Sox organization according to Baseball America and was considered a C+ prospect as judged by John Sickels. Volz didn't crack Baseball America's top 30, but was also considered a C+ in John Sickels eyes.
Navarro will join the Royals tonight in Cleveland and becomes the utility man we have been looking for. Here are the highlights from what Soxprospects.com had to say on Navarro: "above average power for a middle infielder...a little too aggressive at the plate...average speed...tools to be above average defender at shortstop and third base...sure glove, above average arm" It also says that he has gotten reps in the outfield to improve his versatility.
Entering the season Baseball America also said that Navarro possessed the power potential to hit 15-20 home runs a year. BA went on to say that he could be an everyday second or third baseman, but would probably be a quality utilityman for a contending team.
The Royals will likely control Navarro's rights through the 2017 season. As a utility man he could play a big role in the Royals success through those seasons. With the power potential he also should have value as a pinch hitter. Just another bonus stacked on top of his defensive versatility.
The Royals also obtained Kendal Volz. I like the numbers on Volz this season in High-A Salem. He has been moved to the pen full time and through 51 innings has a 10.8 K rate to just 2.1 walks per 9 innings. Volz has a low 90s fastball, with a decent slider and change.
Entering the year some viewed Volz as a guy with backend rotation potential, but I envision the Royals leaving him in the pen and assigning him to Wilmington. If he pitches well there he could be called up for a title run in Northwest Arkansas.
I'll admit that I was never a huge Mike Aviles fan. He hit well in his rookie campaign, but other than the last few weeks of last season never displayed the same hitting prowess. He was always a frustrating guy to watch for me.
It is natural for a guy to want to play every day and I would hope that every player wants to perform well enough to warrant that opportunity. However, Aviles struck me as a guy that used his role as an excuse for his numbers rather than using his opportunity to warrant a starting spot.
Like I said Navarro isn't a game changer. But if all goes well he could be an extremely useful bench piece for the next six seasons and this is something that would really help the Royals get over the hump. Volz represents the old Braves philosophy of nabbing an interesting arm in every trade. Nonetheless he could turn himself iinto a decent relief prospect.
Of course both could flop and Aviles could use Fenway's hitter friendly dimensions to his advantage and pepper the Green Monster with doubles. On paper though this is a good move for both the Royals and Red Sox and that is how trades are supposed to work.
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