Theory on the Royals "Interest" in O'Day & Soria

The hot stove is just getting warmed up, but we've already heard on several occasions that the Royals are interested in Darren O'Day and Joakim Soria. If you are like me then you read this and immediately brushed it off as the club doing their due diligence. Before I go any further, I want to be clear that I do believe that is the case. However, let's take a moment and allow ourselves to believe that the Royals are seriously considering adding Soria or O'Day to the back end of their bullpen.

O'Day has been one of the very best relievers in all of baseball over the last four seasons and in the last two seasons Soria has returned to his pre-2012 form. For the Royals, either pitcher would immediately be slotted into the back of the bullpen and join the triumvirate of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, and Luke Hochevar. It is in large part due to this that the acquisition of either feels more like overkill and a waste of resources in regards to the 2016 team.

What if the Royals intention to pursue O'Day or Soria isn't because they want to make their back of the bullpen 4 deep? What if it is because they are looking to flip one of HHD for an outfielder, second baseman, or starting pitcher. It is no secret that this year's free agent market is exceptionally shallow in the relief pitching department. If the Royals could land O'Day or Soria, not only would it lessen the blow should they move Davis, Herrera, or Hochevar, but it would also help to corner the relief market. This would allow the Royals even more negotiating power.

If the Royals were to pursue this sign a relief pitcher, trade a relief pitcher then who would be most likely to be moved? Luke Hochevar would be the least painful to part with. He is owed $5.5 million in 2016 and then has a $7 million mutual option for 2017. Unfortunately, Hochevar is the least painful for a reason. His peripherals were very strong in 2015 and he is said to have closer stuff, but the 3.73 ERA and 4.00 WHIP don't scream closer.

Kelvin Herrera will make approximately $2.5 million in 2016 and has three more years of control before he hits free agency. This and his career 2.60 ERA would make him an extremely valuable commodity on the trade market. I think most in the industry would be perfectly fine with handing the ball to Herrera to get the final three outs of the game.

Wade Davis is owed $8 million for 2016, and has a team option of $10 million for the 2017 season. For arguably the top reliever in baseball this is a bargain. If the Royals signed O'Day to a two year $16 million contract, would it make sense to then slide him into the closer role and trade Davis? Royal Revival's sources have told us that last offseason the Royals were close to moving Davis for a starting pitcher.

Personally, I think this strategy makes sense. Obviously, there is risk that by dealing from a strength you could damage it to a point where it is no longer a strength. We also know that relief pitching is one of the most fickle things in all of baseball. The shelf life for top tier relievers typically isn't long. We were reminded of that just a couple of months ago by Greg Holland. It was rumored that Dayton Moore had opportunities to move Soria for quality packages prior to his injury. It bares to reason, that the Royals likely could have netter a good haul for Holland last offseason. In both cases Dayton Moore held on to his chips too long. Maybe this go around it will be different.

As far as what the Royals could acquire. I think there is good reason to believe that for either Davis or Herrera the Royals would be looking for a piece that they could immediately slide into the back of the rotation or a corner outfield spot. In addition to that they likely could get a prospect of decent value as well. As a long time Jackie Bradley Jr. fan, I'd love to see the Royals match up with Boston to bring the former 1st round pick to Kansas City. Boston is said to be in the market for back end help and there has been rumors that they'd move Bradley Jr or Rusney Castillo plus to get Aroldis Chapman.

As I said when I started this post, I don't believe the Royals will take this route. I'm not even sure that they should take this route. However, I think it is interesting food for thought. If the Royals were to sign O'Day then trade Wade Davis to Boston for Bradley Jr. plus a prospect, they would be able to fill one of their holes without dipping into their free agent budget. Of course, if Hochevar was enough to grab Bradley Jr. from Boston, I'd jump on that deal in a heartbeat.

Edit: Approximately 1 hour after the writing of this post, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com said that Jackie Bradley has generated trade interest from the Royals and Cubs.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams

In the Cross Hairs: Brandon Phillips

The Reds are said to be open for business and on their team there are several intriguing options that could fit for the Kansas City Royals. We've heard a lot about the Royals interest in Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake. Perhaps, there is another name that could catch the Royals' eyes. I'm speaking of the flashy Brandon Phillips.

When talking about the Cincinnati second baseman, the first thing we need to recognize is that he is not the offensive force that he once was. In fact, since the start of the 2013 season, the former 2nd Round pick has played in 352 games and hit just .267/.310/.381, which is good for an OPS+ of 91. A below average line, but still much better than the .245/.278/.326 line that Omar Infante boasts as a Royal.


What Phillips does bring to the table is excellent defense. This season, Fangraphs credits him as having been worth 4 defensive runs saved, and being worth 2.5 UZR/150. Both of which are above average tallies. In fact, since the start of the 2013 season, Phillips ranks 3rd among qualified second basemen in converting "Remote" (1-10%) plays into outs at 9.8%. He ranks 1st in "Unlikely" (11-40%) plays at 51.5%. He ranks 7th in "Even" (41-60%) plays and 3rd in "Likely" (61-90%). Quite simply his glove is one of the best (and most fun to watch) in baseball.

So what would it take to land Phillips should the Royals decide to pursue this route?

Here's how Phillips contract breaks down moving forward:

• 2015 - $12 million (roughly $5.2 remaining)
• 2016 - $13 million
• 2017 - $14 million

Phillips is currently worth 1.1 fWAR in 2015 and ZIPs projects him to garner 0.9 over the remainder of the season. If Phillips can continue to be worth about 4 WAR for the remainder of his deal. By valuing a win at the current Fangraphs valuation of $7.6 million, then Phillips would be worth -$1.7 million in excessive value. If we go with a more conservative $5.5 million valuation of wins, then Phillips drops to -$10.2 million. 

So let's say the Royals could work out a Infante plus a prospect swap for Phillips. Before we know what kind of prospect that we'd be talking about we first need to evaluate Infante in the same way that we have Phillips. ZIPs currently projects Infante to be worth about 0.3 WAR over the remainder of 2016. If we project Infante to then be worth 0 WAR in 2016 & 17, then his excessive value would be -$15.6 million at the Fangraphs rate and -$16.2 million at the more conservative rate. 

What we see here is that the difference in excess value between Phillips and Infante comes in somewhere between $6.2 and $13.9 million. Thanks to the work of The Point of Pittsburgh on prospect valuation, We can see that sort of valuation would be reflective of a borderline top 100 prospect, or even a pitching prospect ranked somewhere in the 51-100 range in a top 100. Prospects that could work in this range would be guys like Jorge Bonifcaio, Bubba Starling, Miguel Almonte, Brandon Finnegan, Sean Manaea, and maybe guys like Foster Griffin, or Scott Blewett.

So Royals fans, how would you feel about an Omar Infate plus one of the aforementioned players for Brandon Phillips? Would sacrificing a prospect of that quality be worth the upgrade? Is the upgrade worth having Brandon Phillips less than stellar personality in Kansas City?

Tell me @Landon_Adams! 

In the Cross Hairs: Cameron Maybin

Over the next couple of weeks, I hope to take a look at several different players that the Royals could/should target via trade. As I highlighted here, I believe that the Royals should pursue an outfielder at this year's trade deadline. Also, according to Jon Heyman the Royals are actively searching the trade market for outfield help.

Royals, pirates among teams looking at outfield help

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) July 12, 2015

For these reasons, I'll probably focus my efforts on examining outfielders. Let's start with Atlanta Braves center fielder Cameron Maybin.

A former first round pick and top prospect, Maybin has for the most part failed to live up to the hype as a Major League player. However, the Asheville, North Carolina native has produced 9.3 fWAR over 641 career games, which translates to about 2.4 fWAR per 162. For comparison's sake, Alcides Escobar has been worth 2.1 fWAR per 162 throughout his career.

For his career, Maybin has hit .252/.317/.372. However, in 2015, Maybin has boosted that line to .289/.356/.418. Clearly, teams need to be wary of acquiring players when they are at peak performance and in this case, Maybin is having the best offensive season of his career (117 RC+). The question becomes is this luck driven or change driven?

In this particular circumstance, I believe there is a strong case that Maybin has turned a corner offensively. Although, I don't believe it do be quite as pronounced as the stats seem to indicate. To double check on this, I ran Maybin's contact rates through a xBABIP calculator to see what we should expect his line to be thus far this season.

• Actual: .289/.356/.418 with 8 HR
• xBABIP Adjusted: .303/.368/.433 with 8 HR

Now let's look at how his numbers change if we change his HR/FB% to league average of 10.5%:

•  .295/.361/.396 with 5 HR

Finally, how would the numbers look with Maybin's career HR/FB% instead of the 16% that he has blasted out in 2015.

• .293/.359/.386 with 4 HR

My personal conclusion is that as a 28 year old with regular playing time for the first time since 2012, Maybin has improved at the plate. He is posting a career high 9.3% walk rate and he is squaring the ball up more frequently than he has at any other point in his Major League career. What I don't buy is the sudden increase in power. However, even if you accept the final line that uses Maybin's career HR/FB% a .293/.359/.386 line would represent an enormous improvement of Alex Rios's .238/.266/.288. 

Of course when talking about Maybin the offense is only a portion of what intrigues me. Despite a career year at the plate, the numbers indicate that Maybin has struggled defensively in 2015. Defensive Runs Saved believes that Maybin has cost the Braves 14 runs this season. UZR has him at -7.2 runs through the first half. 

These numbers come as a bit of a surprise considering that through Maybin's first 8 seasons, he was worth on average about 3 runs saved per year. Nothing special, but a slightly above average defensive center fielder carries value and typically translates into an above average corner outfielder. Fortunately, for the Royals that is exactly where Maybin would wind up. 

While it isn't a slam dunk, my guess is that if Maybin were to move to a corner at Kauffman Stadium, his defense would play up in a tremendous way. The Royals have finally begun to realize that the uniqueness of Kauffman's spacious outfield can be an enormous competitive advantage. Essentially, by fielding 2 or 3 center fielders, there is enough space that the individual's fielding territories don't overlap which allows for maximum defensive effect. 

Maybin is currently owed about $3.5 million for the remainder of the 2015 season. He is under control at a very affordable $8 million for 2016 and has a $9 million team option for 2017 that includes a $1 million buyout. Overall, if the Royals were to acquire the Braves outfielder, the team would owe him a approximately $12.5 million guaranteed. Not only would that buy the Royals a fill in during Alex Gordon's time on the disabled list, but it would also check off a box on this winter's shopping list.

Another aspect that draws me to Maybin is the fact that he is right handed. I've made no secret that I believe Jarrod Dyson should be playing more often. If the Royals were to acquire Maybin they could put Dyson and Rios into a platoon at the other corner. Then when Gordon comes back, Maybin could take Rios's place with Dyson occasionally spelling him against right handed pitching. (Of course, my dream would be to DFA Rios and start both Maybin and Dyson everyday until Gordon returns. Sight.) If the Royals can manage to bring back Gordon for the 2016 season, I believe that it'd make more sense to acquire a right handed hitter than a lefty for the reason above. 

So would the Braves trade Maybin? What would it take? The answer to the first question is not obvious, but I believe the answer to be yes. The Braves are clearly in a rebuild mode. Despite their best efforts to keep things interesting in 2015, the team is now 7 games behind the Nationals in the NL East and 6 behind the Cubs for the second wild card.

EDIT: According to Bill Shanks the Braves are open for business and wouldn't refuse a strong trade offer for Maybin. Shanks believes the Braves could reasonably demand a prospect in a team's 5-10 range. For the Royals that zone preseason included: Hunter Dozier, Miguel Almonte, Foster Griffin, Scott Blewett, Jorge Bonifacio, and Christian Colon.

What would it take to acquire Maybin is a more difficult question to answer. Let's say we are optimistic and project Maybin to be worth 1 fWAR for the rest of 2015, 2.5 fWAR for 2016, and 2.5 fWAR. Let's say we don't discount future value and we value 1 fWAR at $8 million, which seems high. If we do all of these things, we find that Maybin is worth about $27 million in surplus value. (Considering the way we reached this figure, I believe this to be on the high end.)

Based on the work from The Point of Pittsburgh, this is roughly the equivalent of a pitching prospect in the #26-50 range and a pitching prospect in the #51-75 range. 

If we take a more pessimistic approach in how we value Maybin, we could reach the conclusion that he is worth more like $6-10 million in surplus value. This would make Maybin worth a border line top 100 prospect. 

Based off all of this, I could see the Braves and Royals coming together somewhere in between. Perhaps, one of the Royals top pitching prospects, plus another guy ranking in the 20-45 ranges of the Royals top prospects. This aligns well with what resident Braves fan Nick Allen guessed at on Twitter. He discussed the Braves desire to add arms and catching depth and throughout a Maybin for Brandon Finnegan and Zane Evans swap. 

It has been said before, but if the Royals do move a top prospect, it seems like Finnegan is the most likely to go. Finnegan was a beast last October, but the Royals approach to his development this season has at times been baffling. At this point, I think it is likely that the Royals view him as a reliever long term and with that being the case, his value could be higher as a trade commodity than as a building block for future teams. I also recall that from his MLB Network days that John Hart, President of Operations for the Atlanta Braves was a huge Miguel Almonte fan.

What do you think Royals fans? Would you trade either Brandon Finnegan or Miguel Almonte plus another low level prospect for Maybin? Let me know!

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

The State of the Royals Outfield

As Royals nation collectively awaits the official results of the MRI on Alex Gordon's left leg, we are left to ponder what this means for the team moving forward. If the early indications are true that it is a grade 3 groin strain, then (based off a limited amount of research) Gordon could be sidelined between 6 and 12+ weeks. So let's look at how that breaks down on the calendar:

6 weeks - August 19 

7 weeks - August 26

8 weeks - September 2

9 weeks  - September 9

10 weeks  - September 16

11 weeks  - September 23

12 weeks - September 30

Obviously, that's not a good situation. Another note is that the final game of the 2014 Minor League season on September 16. The importance of this is that if Gordon winds up being out 9+ weeks, then it is extremely unlikely that the Royals would have the ability to send their All-Star left fielder on rehab assignment. If Gordon winds up being out 9+ weeks, the Royals would have to reacclimate him through batting practice and a careful increase in playing time at the Major League level. 

It is not impossible to get a guy back to speed without a rehab assignment, but it does make it a bit more difficult. Not to mention the possibility that the Royals could be playing in extremely important games over the last several weeks of the season. 

Here is how I see it. If Gordon takes 9 weeks or less to return, the Royals are able to send him on rehab to the Minors and have the best chance of reintegrating him into the lineup in an effective manner. If Gordon takes between 9 and 11 weeks to return to game shape, the Royals have a shot of getting him back for October. If Gordon takes 12 or more weeks before he is ready for game action, the Royals will find themselves in an incredibly difficult spot of whether or not he should be included on a postseason roster when he has hardly played for two and a half months. 

Long story short, if the news comes back that Gordon has sustained a grade 3 groin strain, then the team must approach this as though they will not see Gordon again this season. Prior to the injury, I had enough faith in Jarrod Dyson that I didn't believe the Royals needed to acquire a corner outfielder to replace the lackadaisical Alex Rios. Now, I believe it is quite certain that the Royals should seek out replacement opportunities. 

I view this situation in two parts. First, there is the 2015 problem. Rios is terrible and now Gordon is hurt. The Royals need to fill two outfield spots and they have a solution for one (Dyson). The second part of this is 2016. While the injury will increase the likelihood that Alex Gordon returns to Kansas City for the 2016 season, there is still a very good chance that he departs. If this is the case then the Royals return just Lorenzo Cain, Jarrod Dyson, and Paulo Orlando. Even if Dyson proves that he can play everyday in 2016, the Royals still need another starting outfielder. 

If you find an outfielder now, you get the benefit of improving the roster for the remainder of 2015 by pushing aside Rios, while also getting a step ahead in setting the 2016 roster. If by chance the Royals are able to bring back Gordon for 2016, then they again can push Dyson into a rotation role as the fourth outfielder and will be even stronger a unit for the 2016 campaign.

It is my opinion that the outfielder the Royals need will come via trade. Some would argue that there are capable internal replacements and here is how I would counter on each of those options.

Paulo Orlando - Fourth Outfielder

Brett Eibner - The former second round pick has some promise. He is 26, extremely streaky at the plate, plays good defense, and has a good arm. He is also hitting .292/.349/491 in Omaha. There is a part of me that believes he could grab and handle an everyday job. However, I also know that Werner Park heavily favors right handed power and as a 26 year old, he needs to prove it in the Majors. The scenario that I prefer is that the Royals acquire a starting RF and Eibner gets called up in replace of Orlando or as a 5th outfielder. Given his power from the right side, I think he complements the roster better than Orlando. There is already a ton of speed, but a power bat off the bench would be a bonus and Eibner could even wind up in the small side of a platoon with Dyson.

Whit Merrifield - Based on reports it sounds like Merrifield could be the guy to replace Gordon on the roster. The former 9th round pick is an easy player to root for, but he is 26 and is currently slugging .392 in a hitter friendly league. He gets bonus points for being able to play both outfield and second base, but I don't see the South Carolina product as an answer.

Moises Sierra/Reymond Fuentes/Jose Martinez - All of these guys have done enough to get a chance to fill a void on the roster for a little bit. However, the Royals aren't filling this hole with any of these retreads.

Lane Adams - At 25 years old, the toolsy outfielder is barely hanging on to the prospect label. He's excellent defensively, can steal bases, and shows flashes at the plate. He received a cup of coffee last September and the organization loves his athleticism. Similar to Eibner, I think he is a guy who could complement Dyson well in a platoon role for left field. However, he isn't going to ever be an everyday outfielder.

Jorge Bonifacio/Bubba Starling - I've lumped these two 22 year olds together because I think at this point they have similar trajectories. Both could be in a position at some point in 2016 to deserve a look as an everyday guy. At this point, it is clear that both need more minor league seasoning. Unless the Royals decide to go the Salvador Perez route  in their developmental approach, neither of these prospects will be slam dunks to deserve a Major League spot at the beginning of 2016.

All of this brings us back to my initial conclusion. The Royals need to add a corner outfielder to the roster sometime in the next few weeks. It will be an enormous boost to the team for 2015, and will also better position the team for success in 2016. 

I've been wanting to get going on here for awhile, but have been considering who other options. It is good to be back and I'll try to break down some specific trade targets over the next few weeks. 

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams! 

An Ode to Mr. Zoombiya

The Royals entered the offseason with three positions to fill. Fans and the front office agreed the team needed to find a right fielder (to replace the departing Nori Aoki), a designated hitter (to replace the departing Billy Butler), and a starting pitcher (to replace the departing James Shields). It was generally accepted that the voids would need to be filled with individuals outside the organization and thus far Kansas City has checked two of the items off their list.

I'm not going to spend time in this post analyzing the Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales additions, but instead I am going to ask a simple question. Why couldn't the team have filled right field with an in-house option? No, I'm not talking about Carlos Peguero. I'm talking about Jarrod Dyson.

Unlike Peguero there has been absolutely zero buzz about the possibility of breaking camp with Jarrod Dyson starting in the outfield. Why not?

The simple answer is that Dyson looks like a fourth outfielder. He is an excellent defensive replacement and an enormous weapon off the bench as a pinch runner. The former 50th round pick is so good in the fourth outfielder role that narrative dictates that is all he is. Never mind the fact that despite only receiving 290 plate appearances and playing in just 120 games, Dyson ranked 36th among outfielders in fWAR in 2014 and 5th on the team.

At this point many people tend to point out that Dyson's numbers were inflated due to the fact that he faced predominately right handed pitching last season. This is true. In 2014, Dyson faced right handed pitching in 81% of his plate appearances. Given that the typical regular sees right handed pitching approximately 70% of the time, we should adjust our expectations to reflect that number.

In order to get a more accurate feel on what Dyson's production would be over the course of the season, I broke out The Spitter. If you are unfamiliar with The Spitter or new to this blog, it is a projection system that weights batted ball data and is able to "spit" out a projection. The Spitter can then take these numbers and provide a wOBA and a WAR total for the player. I've added 2014 park factors to the Spitter, so the numbers are even more accurate now than they have been in the past. Like any projection system, The Spitter occasionally whiffs, but a vast majority of last season's projections were extremely accurate.

Since we aren't actually creating a projection for Dyson, I have adjusted The Spitter to give us full season results had Dyson maintained his contact rates against lefties and faced them in 30% of 600 plate appearances, as well as maintaining his contact rates against righties in the same plate appearance size.

Enough with the technical mumbo-jumbo. Had our hero been able to keep up his performance over a 600 plate appearance sample his season line should have ended up looking like this:

Jarrod Dyson 2014: .270/.329/.330, .297 wOBA and 1.34 WAR.

This might not seem like a very impressive player, but this fails to consider Dyson's defense. When we plug in a positional adjustment and factor in Dyson's UZR from 2014, The Spitter increases Dyson's WAR  to 5.23. This tally would have ranked 22nd in baseball among all players and 10th among outfielders. Again, those results are not fudged. They are simply an extrapolation of the numbers that Dyson posted in 2014.

By the way, we still haven't accounted for baserunning. According to Fangraphs, Dyson was worth approximately 4.5 runs on the bases in 2014. When you consider that he would be on the bases 196 times in our extrapolated sample, compared to just 92 in reality, all of the sudden Dyson's legs add in another 9.6 runs in value. This would increase Dyson's WAR to approximately 6.28, ranking him as the 6th most valuable outfielder in baseball.

At this point, things are starting to get a little crazy. How could Mr. Zoombiya really be worth nearly 6.3 wins above replacement? It just doesn't make sense. Blatantly, this thought doesn't fit the narrative. Dyson is a fourth outfielder. He is a former 50th round pick that has scraped out a career with his legs to earn a few seasons in the Show. He sure as hell doesn't look like a 6 win player.

What we have to realize is that Dyson doesn't look like a starting player, because his value comes in things that are more difficult to see. He isn't bopping home runs. He isn't hitting .320. He isn't posting 100 RBI seasons. He is a world class runner, He does get on base at a decent clip. He did post the highest UZR/150 out of all players with over 600 innings in the field.

For those of you that know me, you know that I have long been a Jarrod Dyson fan. I've defended him when few others would and I would loudly proclaim that his arm was vastly underrated until finally it wasn't. But do I think that Jarrod Dyson is a top ten outfielder in the Major Leagues? No. I do not.

I do think that given a full time job, it would be safe to project Dyson as a 3.5 win player in 2015.  He might have a skill set that will cause his value to drop off quicker than the average outfielder, but he isn't going to become an average runner between now and April 6.

The Royals just paid Alex Rios $11 million hoping that he will turn back into the 3 win player that he was in 2013. Jarrod Dyson will make a fraction of that cost as a first time arbitration eligible player this year and he was worth 3 Wins Above Replacement in a part time role last season. Not to mention, Dyson won't be eligible for free agency until after the 2017 season.

For guys like Jarrod Dyson sometimes it is impossible to overcome the narrative and get the shot they deserve. Regardless, I'll be in Kansas City on Opening Day sitting in section 118, wearing my Mr.Zoombiya jersey. If you can find me, we'll get a drink and and dream about what Dyson could be have been as the Royals' everyday centerfielder.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

In the Cross Hairs: Scott Van Slyke

You might have noticed on Twitter a few days ago that I brought up Scott Van Slyke as a potential solution to the Royals right field search for 2015. Scott, who is the son of former Cardinals first round pick Andy Van Slyke, currently is stuck in the midst of a glut of outfielders with the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers currently have one of the most crowded outfields in professional baseball and as a result will be pressed to make a move this offseason. Given the Royals strength at the back end of the bullpen and the Dodgers need of late inning help, it bares to reason that the two organizations could match up in a trade this winter.

Obviously, when it comes to the Dodgers, I would love if the Royals could get their hands on the Pacific Coast League MVP Joc Pederson, or the dynamic Yasiel Puig. However, I don't think the Royals are pulling back one of the aforementioned players, even if they are moving one of the HDH triumvirate. So another player who is catching my eye is Van Slyke.

First, off Van Slyke makes sense because he is right handed. This allows him to slide in nicely as a platoon partner with Royal Jarrod Dyson. Here is a look at what each of the outfielders did in 2014 against opposite side pitching:

Van Slyke vs L: .315/.415/.630 in 130 plate appearances
Dyson vs R: .274/.326/.337 in 233 plate appearances

The combination of the two would allow both players to be put into excellent situations to succeed. As you can see, with Van Slyke in the lineup the Royals would receive a nice boost offensively. When Dyson is roaming the outfield the team would get a bump in the speed and defense department. The two players offer quite differing skill sets which would mesh extremely well on the roster.

Unlike many of the free agent options, Van Slyke is a strong defensive outfielder. For his career he has posted a 13.7 UZR/150. Not only does he have solid range, but his arm is rated average by the metrics.

The final pro with a Scott Van Slyke acquisition is the cost. Van Slyke will only be owed the league minimum in 2015 and will not be eligible for arbitration until following the season. In fact, Van Slyke wouldn't even be eligible for free agency until after the 2019 season. This means that the Royals could control the outfielder for five seasons. Granted the Missouri native is already 28 years old, but there is good reason to believe he would mesh well with the roster the Royals already have in place.

If the Royals were to acquire Van Slyke in a trade involving Greg Holland, they would immediately gain approximately $9 million more dollars in payroll flexibility for next season. Would a trade of Van Slyke plus a prospect for Holland be enough to get the Royals to pull the trigger? Most Royals fans would say no. They would argue that one of the top closers in the game should fetch more than a platoon player and prospect. I wouldn't necessarily disagree, but what fans should realize is that the Royals would also gain a huge amount of additional funds to put toward a starting pitcher and designated hitter.

One negative to note is Van Slyke's .394 BABIP from 2014. He also had an unsustainable HR/FB rate. However, he did square up the ball in over 20% of his at bats and walk 11.4% of the time. While a part of Van Slyke's success in 2014 was definitely BABIP driven, he still garnered the Dodgers 2.8 fWAR. Greg Holland, despite all of his hype in the postseason, earned the Royals 2.3 fWAR.

It is going to be hard to pull the trigger on a trade for any of the big three at the back of the bullpen. Is Van Slyke enough to get it done? Not in my opinion. First, I would ask for Pederson. When that doesn't happen, I'd turn my attention to a package that includes Van Slyke and one or two more prospects or pieces. Relievers are volatile and I think the Royals are well equipped to deal  with a loss of Holland.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

In The Cross Hairs: Melky Cabrera

Let's travel back in time.  Say...four years ago.  I know you don't want to, but it'll be a quick stop.  The Royals of 2010 were a team to forget.  The lineup was abysmal, but honestly, any lineup with Yuniesky Betancourt as the starting shortstop and Jose Guillen sitting in the designated hitter spot hacking away at pitches like a lumberjack will be anything but pretty to watch.  Our future cyborg in left field, Alex Gordon, spent over half the year in Omaha learning the new position he now dominates.  Our shortstop was Yuniesky Betancourt.  Our then Ace, Zack Grienke, had an off year after coming off a dazzling Cy Young Award season in 2009.  Gil Meche, or known to Royal Revival members as the "GILamonster", spent most of the season on the DL with back and shoulder issues.  We had guys in the rotation like Kyle Davies, Sean O'Sullivan, Bryan Bullington, and Anthony Lerew (the guy with the Elvis Presley chops) making starts.  Oh, did I mention Yuniesky Betancourt was our stinking shortstop?

Along with that seemingly endless list of problems, there was the occupancy of center field.  The CF position saw not one, not two, but seven players receive playing time for the Royals.  Those seven: Rick Ankiel (yes, Rick Ankiel), Gregor Blanco (sad face), Willie Bloomquist (Ol' droopy), David DeJesus, Jarrod Dyson (Zoombiya), Mitch Maier (player/coach for NW Arkansas Naturals in 2014), and Scott Podsednik.  Woof.  To top it off, the 2010 Royals employed two managers.  Trey Hillman, who was let go after starting the year 12-23, managed in Kansas City the prior 2 seasons and finished off his tenure with a combined W-L record of 152-207.  Then, Jeff Foxworthy's best friend, Edgar Frederick a.k.a. Ned Yost, steps in to take the reigns.  I can still remember him getting a standing ovation that night when his name was first announced by the legendary Voice of the Royals, Mike McCartney.  Simply put: the 2010 season was poop.

2011 wasn't all that much better, considering the Royals finished fourth in the division with a 71-91 record, but the lineup was shaping into what got Kansas City to the World Series for the first time since we beat the Cardinals in '85.  Alex Gordon played 151 games in his new home of left field that earned him his first of many gold gloves, while hitting .303 with 23 HR.  Newly acquired Jeff Francoeur played right field, hitting .285 with 20 HR and 22 SB.  Our future corner infielders and starting catcher, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, and Sal Perez, made their debuts that got everyone excited about the future.  Even Lorenzo Cain received a September call-up to give the Royal Nation a brief glimpse into 2012.

One of the key components to 2011 was the signing of free agent CF Melky Cabrera.  The Royals managed to sign Cabrera, 26 years old at the time, to a 1 year $1.25 million deal, mostly because of a disappointing campaign with the Atlanta Braves the year before.  With the Braves, Cabrera hit .255/.317/.354 with just 4 HR and 42 RBI.  What a steal this signing would turn out to be.  Melky, hands down, had the best season of his young career as a Royal.  During his stint in KC, he set career highs in batting average, HR, RBI, R, and SB.  He finished fourth in the American League in hits with 201, which made him just the 6th Royal in franchise history to collect 200 hits in a season.

Photo courtesy of cjonline.com

During the offseason, the Royals needed to trade Cabrera for pitching and to clear the CF spot for Lorenzo Cain to take over.  Kansas City sent Cabrera to San Francisco for pitchers Ryan Verdugo and, excuse me.. I just threw up in my mouth, Jonathon Sanchez.  I'll stop there as far as the trade is concerned.  While in The City by the Bay, Cabrera continued where he left off.  The Melkman earned himself a spot in the starting lineup for the National League in the All-Star game in Kansas City.  He collected two hits, including a 2-run HR, earning him the All-Star MVP award.  His stellar year ended abruptly when MLB slapped him with a 50 game suspension for PED use.  Since then, Melky has been playing for the Toronto Blue Jays.  Last season, he was on his way to another solid year, but was stopped unexpectedly from getting hit by a pitch, fracturing his pinkie.  He ended 2014 with a .301/.351/.458 line with 16 HR and 73 RBI.

Cabrera was one of several free agents who received a Qualifying Offer of a 1 year $15.3 million deal from their respective teams.  According to SportsNet's Shi Davidi, Cabrera and the Blue Jays are "far apart" in contract discussions.  The now 30 year old will likely test the waters of free agency.  If Melky signs elsewhere, the Blue Jays will receive a compensatory draft pick in exchange, so there is a plus to the situation for Toronto. 

A Melkman reunion in Kansas City isn't really seen by many for 2015.  MLB Trade Rumors has predicted a 5 year $70 million deal in the works for the 30 year old switch hitter.  If by happenstance the Royals were to look into Cabrera's services for a second go-around, there may be a very slight issue.  There's no worry about Cabrera having trouble playing the outfield.  Last season, all but three of his 139 games were in the OF.  For most of his career, however, he has certainly avoided RF, but not completely.  If the Royals happen to part ways with DH Billy Butler, which most definitely would be a sad day, Melky could in fact fill Butler's position.  I would not be opposed if he were to see some time in RF, assuming the Royals do not re-sign Nori Aoki.

Follow Daniel Ware and Royal Revival on Twitter: 
@Daniel_L_Ware 
@RoyalRevival

In The Cross Hairs: Brandon McCarthy

What a year.  What an unbelievably, amazing season  from our Boys in Blue.  Right off the bat, I want to thank the Royals for giving all of us memories we will cherish forever.  Sure we had some bad spells, I can even recall a game we attended in May against the Astros.  Nothing was going our way that series.  For kicks, I said to fellow Royal Revival members Landon and Paden, "Watch this..Chris Carter. Left Field bullpen. Dinger."  Sure enough.  Things weren't going our way, but the boys ignored the doubters and eventually made the World Series for the first time in my young life.  I look forward to talking to my children about this season, but I also look forward to the future and how bright it certainly looks!

Onward we go.  This winter should be a busy one for Dayton Moore and Company.  Three key positions need to be answered in the coming months.  As you know, the Royals announced they had declined Billy Butler's $12.5 million option, which should have been no surprise to anyone.  Billy wants to stay, which is great to hear, but a cheap and mutual agreement between Butler and the Royals will be needed.  While discussing this with fellow R.R. members, we believe a 1 year $6 million deal could do it, or possibly a 2 year $12 million contract.  However, if another suitor comes along with a 2 year $14 million deal on the table, I think Butler takes it.  He's repeatedly said he wants to #BeRoyal, but baseball is a business.  We'll have to wait and see what he decides.  Life without Billy just doesn't seem right.

To the main topic of this post.  Our rotation was revamped two years ago when the Royals traded top prospect Wil Myers for James Shields and Wade Davis.  I think it's safe to say, we won the trade.  Now that 2014 has come to a close, 'Big Game' James is a free agent and is seeking big money in free agency. Will the Royals extend a Qualifying Offer of 1 year $15.3 million to the soon-to-be 33 year old?  Sure.  Will James take the deal?  He will probably test the waters of the market before discussing anything with the Royals.  One place I can see him land is Chicago.  No, not with the White Sox, but reuniting with his former manager Joe Maddon and dawning a Cubs uniform.  The Cubs have a great core of young talent and something they could use again is an ace for their rotation.  I don't want Shields to go away any more than I do Billy, but with the Royals current situation, Butler seems to be the top priority for the time being.

So, let's talk in terms of 2015 without James Shields.  He undeniably helped the Royals get to where they are today, but Dayton and his colleagues need to think of a possible replacement.  One idea could be to sign 31 year old Brandon McCarthy.  There's no question that he wasn't superb in Arizona to begin the 2014 season.  In 18 starts for the D-Backs, he was 3-10 with a 5.01 ERA.  Those numbers helped the Yankees lure him in from Arizona by exchanging Vidal Nuno.  McCarthy stepped up in a big way for his final 14 starts, going 7-5 with a 2.89 ERA with 82 Ks and 13 BBs in 90.1 innings.  This was definitely a nice acquisition considering the injuries to C.C. Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka.

Photo by Bill Kostroun, NYPost.com

2014 was definitely a breath of fresh air for Brandon.  For Arizona and NY combined, he logged 200 innings for the first time in his career, and the most since his 2011 campaign with Oakland when he threw 170 innings.  For most of his career, McCarthy has been inconsistent, except for his two year stint in Oakland, which he enjoyed very much.  In 281.2 innings, he had a combined ERA of 3.29 with 196 Ks and 49 BBs.  He has good command of his fastball, which averaged 93 mph this season, he features a nice cutter that the Yankees encouraged him to through again, which could be part of his success in the pinstripes.  He'll also put some sink on his fastball and throws a curveball around 80 mph and a changeup, but the off-speed pitch was almost non-existent as he threw it only 0.7% of the time.

McCarthy would definitely be a gamble.  He made $10.25 million in 2014, while making a combined $15.5 million the last two seasons.  I've seen possible offers for the righty at around $30 million in total for 3 years.  That's quite a bit for the Royals to take on, considering McCarthy has been anything but consistent throughout his career.  Here's a plus: his groundball and flyball numbers have flipped since the beginning of his career in 2005.  According to FanGraphs, his GB% the past 2 seasons: 48.2% and 52.6%, respectively.  FB% the past 2 seasons: 27.1% and 24.7%.  Compared to Shields, McCarthy would be a cheaper replacement, but is it worth the risk on the unpredictable 31 year old?

Revisiting the Wil Myers Trade

First off, I want to apologize for my absence over the past six weeks. As many of you have read here before, I've never been one to analyze individual games or do weekly updates. Quite frankly, I haven't been writing for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, I haven't had the free time necessary to maintain this blog. I am getting married in October and in the process of a home remodel. Also, my brother was married last night, as well as fellow Royal Revival writer Paden. In addition to these items, I am currently pursuing a Master's degree and have the responsibilities of a full time job. If the posts here are few and far between over the next few months, I hope you can bare with me.

The major reason for this post today is yesterday's blockbuster trade between the Athletics and Cubs. My initial reaction to the trade was 'man, is the Cubs system stacked.' My second thought, I hope this gets Billy Beane a ring.

Despite the lack of pitching prospects in the Cubs system it seems possible that the lovable losers could push for the title of Best Farm System ever. Theo Epstein, who has stated that he wants to build a farm system like the one the Royals had is on the cusp of accomplishing just that. (On a side note, I wonder how many baseball executives looked lustily upon the Royals system and thought to themselves, "oh if only I could be the one to take them to the next level.")

Since the trade there have been many who have comped this deal to the trade that sent Wil Myers to Tampa Bay. Let me be perfectly clear, this comparison is lazy. Yes, both the Royals and A's sent a top ten prospect plus to another team for pitching talent in an attempt to win now. No, that doesn't make the trades equal. This mentality that one is approved because it is Billy Beane and the other is rejected because it is Dayton Moore is unfair to the fans smart enough to evaluate moves on a much deeper level.

The Royals made the trade to get to the periphery of playoff contention. The Athletics made the trade to win a world series title. If you equate these two items as being of the same value, then you can click the X found in the upper right hand corner of the browser. A team's placement on the win curve is essential in determining what they should be willing to pay for each additional win. This is rudimentary stuff, but somehow seems to be forgotten by those stating these trades are one in the same.

Another point that should be made is that the Royals trade occurred in the off-season, a time in which talent can be acquired without sacrificing talent already in hand. Quite simply, if the A's wanted to improve their rotation in July, they had no choice but to move talent from their organization. In the off-season, the Royals could in theory acquire talent, while also hanging on to the talent at hand. This represents an enormous difference in the trades.

Finally, Addison Russell, while he is an outstanding prospect is not ready to contribute at the Major League level. He has played 16 games in the upper levels of the Minor Leagues. Best case is that he is called up midway through next season. Meaning the A's were not going to get a return on him for basically an entire season. Wil Myers on the other hand was Major League ready and returns on him would begin the same time as the returns of the asset. This is a key point that I haven't seen mentioned, but should not be ignored.

Of course, all of this pushed me to revisit the Myers trade. Since the Royals seemingly made the decision to go for it in 2013 and 2014, it would make sense that they would have returned much more value in the short term than the Rays. In order to see if the Royals have come out ahead in the Myers-Shields trade, I decided to compare the post trade WAR totals for the Royals with the WAR total from the Royals in an alternate universe in which they stayed the course and held on to Wil Myers. Also, since the Royals would have had a solution in right field, I have included the Smith brothers, Justin Maxwell, and Nori Aoki in this evaluation.

bWAR	2013	2014		fWAR	2013	2014
w/out trade	$1.00	$1.50		w/out trade	$1.00	$1.50
Patrick Leonard	A	A+		Patrick Leonard	A	A+
Mike Montgomery	AAA	AAA		Mike Montgomery	AAA	AAA
Jake Odorizzi	0.3	0.9		Jake Odorizzi	0.3	1.5
Wil Myers	1.9	-0.6		Wil Myers	2.4	0.4
Will Smith		1.3		Will Smith		0.6
Kyle Smith	A+	AA		Kyle Smith	A+	AA
	2.2	1.6			2.7	2.5
w/trade	$11.80	$20.25		w/trade	$11.80	$20.25
James Shields	4.1	-0.1		James Shields	4.5	1.4
Wade Davis	-2.1	1.8		Wade Davis	1.7	1.5
Nori Aoki		-0.5		Nori Aoki		0.9
Justin Maxwell	0.6	-1.2		Justin Maxwell	0.7	-1.1
	2.6	0			6.9	2.7

The left hand column utilized the WAR from Baseball Reference, while the right side uses Fangraphs' version. As you can see, the Royals clearly came out ahead in 2013, but depending on which WAR you prefer it was either just 0.4 wins or 4.2 wins ahead. Let's split the difference and say the Royals were 2.3 wins better because of the trade. In 2014, we find that according to bWAR the Royals are actually 1.6 WAR worse because of the trade, while fWAR says they are 0.2 wins better. Again let's split the difference and say they are 1.4 wins worse because of the trade. 

Really based off the above totals, no matter how you slice it, it is hard to argue that the Royals were much better off over the past two seasons due to the acquiring of James Shields and Wade Davis. In fact, based off of our midway points, the Royals actually were just 0.9 wins better over the last year and a half, thanks to the trade. I doubt this is what Royals officials had in mind when they pulled the trigger on the trade that would send their top prospect to Tampa Bay.

Unfortunately for Royals fans it gets worse. As you can see in the above tables, there is also a dollar figure included. This represents in millions how much the Royals paid for the players. In 2013, the Royals spent $10.8 million more for the bottom group and in 2014 the total jumped to $18.75 million more. My guess is that this difference could have been spent on the free agent market to acquire an additional win over the last year and a half, which would have made the top grouping better even in the short run. 

Fortunately, there is a way that we can consider the monetary implications in our evaluation. In 2013, Fangraphs valued each win at approximately $5 million. If we multiply that by the WAR total for each set and add in the difference in money to the alternate universe scenario, the Myers led Royals squad boasts an average over $23.05 million in value between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs to $23.75 million for the Shields version (approximately 0.1 win). This obviously is a slight edge to the Shields led Royals. However, the 2014 averages favor the Myers led squad $54.1 million to $26.65 million (roughly 4.6 wins).

Clearly, the Royals were willing to sacrifice the long term to push the envelope in the short term. Unfortunately, based off these numbers the Royals have lost tremendously in the short run as well. Even if we discount each year following 2013, the numbers are going to be staggeringly one sided when this set of trades is evaluated. To close, let me just give you an update on the other guys the Royals gave up that have yet to contribute at the Major League level. 

Patrick Leonard: Hitting .298/.386/.521 in 76 games with Tampa Bay's High A team. His 12 homers would be tied for third most in the Royals organization. He is 21 years old.

Mike Montgomery: 3.28 ERA in 85 innings with Triple A Durham (most hitter friendly park in league). He leads the International League in FIP and SIERA. Still just 24 years old. 

Kyle Smith: Has pitched 78.1 innings between the Astros High-A and Double A teams. Currently has a 3.56 ERA, is striking out 10.23 per 9 innings and walking just 2.64. He is also 21 years old.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

Billy Butler and Future Production

As a whole,  the Royals offense is again off to an incredibly disappointing start in 2014. Of course, there are some players that deserve the blame more than others and there are some players who receive more of the blame than others. Over the past few years, no player has teetered this line more often than designated hitter Billy Butler.

A portion of the fan base complains that Butler is fat, too slow, doesn't hit for enough power, and can't deliver in clutch situations. Another portion of the fan base points out that Butler is a career .313/.394/.460 hitter with runners in scoring position and that he gets on base at a career clip of .362. It seems as though this debate has gotten so divisive that there is no grey area in regards to Billy Butler.

Obviously, there is a segment of fans that view baseball much differently than myself. They beat their chest to stats like RBI and they prefer to keep math away from their evaluation of players. Obviously, many of these individuals greatly undervalue the strengths of Butler. More surprising to me are the analytics on the other side of the fence that are unable to see flaws in Butler's game as well as some of his concerning trends.

In regards to last season, it is true that Butler was valuable to the offense. His 116 RC+  was the second best among everyday hitters in the lineup. At the same time, it is not unfair to expect more from Butler. In 2013, he was coming off a 138 RC+ and the Royals were pushing the chips into the center of the table. Despite this there were reports of him coming to camp overweight, and then in season his average flyball distance dropped from 297 to 276 feet. As a result his HR/FB% nose dived, his home run total dipped, and his slugging percentage fell all the way to .412.

Yes, if all things were created equal, Butler was not the problem with last season's offense. However, Butler wasn't expected to simply be one of the best hitters in the lineup. He was expected to be one of the best hitters in the American League. After a season which saw him bop a career high 29 home runs, Butler seemed poised to be one of the most dangerous hitters in the American League in his age 27 season.

What most of us have seemed to underestimate though is just how much more harsh the aging curve is for heavy players than it is for average sized individuals. Here is a look at the aging curves of the two body types, with Butler's OPS numbers overlayed:

As you can see, the curve of heavier players dips much earlier in the player's career than it does for average sized individuals. For Butler's own sake, I haven't even included this year's numbers in the illustration of how his own aging curve is playing out. If you are a defendant of Billy Butler and you like to cite advanced statistics to back up your argument, you have to recognize that there is an analytical reasoning behind the notion that Butler's skillset could regress much more quickly than the average player.

Butler appears to be heating up. In his last 9 games (yay! selective end points), he is hitting .343/.368/.514. However, not only has Butler's ground ball percentage increased in four consecutive seasons, but his average fly ball distance has also decreased. Even when he is getting the ball into the air he isn't driving it as far.

Do I expect Butler to finish the year with a sub .700 OPS? Absolutely not. But I also wouldn't bet on him getting back into the .850+ OPS range. Based off the aging curves of heavier players in the past, Butler should have two or three more seasons with an OPS around .800. However, after that it could be a pretty quick fall for the Royals former first round pick. Hopefully, Butler can prove me wrong and can stay hot throughout the rest of 2014. We all know the offense needs the lift.

Royals Roster Issue

This morning the Royals received about as good as news as they could have hoped for on the Omar Infante front. No fractures. No concussion. As a result, the Royals are going to attempt to avoid a DL stint for their shiny new $40 million second baseman.

Unfortunately, for the Royals there is no back up middle infielder on the roster. It now appears that the Royals are going to stick with the current roster for 2-3 days in the hopes of Infante being healthy enough to play by the weekend. What this means is that Danny Valencia will be manning second for at least today and tomorrow's contests.

Personally, I think this is a mistake. Even last night, we saw first hand how risky playing Valencia at second could be. When Valencia turned a potential double play into a throwing error, the Rays were given new life in the 9th inning. In fact, thanks to this play the Rays were able to get the tying run to the plate.

So what could the Royals do?

Well yesterday the Royals called up Donnie Joseph and Michael Mariott. The Royals also recently called up Aaron Brooks. Each of these three pitchers have options available. We also know that Louis Coleman is nearly ready to return to the team following a trip to the disabled list in spring training. Either way in a few days the Royals will need to option one of their relievers to AAA Omaha.

The Royals could speed up that process and option one of the relievers to Omaha now and bring up either Johnny Giavotella or Christian Colon. Another option could be Jason Donald, although he would need to be added to the 40 man roster. By bringing up one of these middle infielders now, the Royals could then have an actual second baseman for the next couple of games, instead of playing Valencia out of position.

If Infante is ready to return to the lineup by the weekend (something that I think is very unlikely), you simply send down the recently called up middle infielder and bring back Coleman off the disabled list, getting you back to a 12 man pitching staff. For the next two games, you'd have to have an 11 man staff, but every reliever should be available for tonight. If having an 11 man staff wasn't an issue a week ago then it shouldn't be now.

If Infante takes a week to return to the lineup, then that makes the call up of a middle infielder even more important. For a team on the borders of contention every game is of the utmost importance. They can't afford to be playing multiple games with players out of position. It is great that Valencia can fill in as an emergency second baseman in situations like last night, but there's no reason the Royals should enter a game with him as the only option.

There is a move that can be easily made and improve the team for tonight. There's no excuse for the Royals not to make it.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

Money to Spend on Amateur Talent

Last Wednesday, Baseball America brought us a few different articles breaking down the bonus pools by team for the 2014 amateur draft and international signing period. If you missed it, you can read the article here.

Once again, the Royals rank very highly in terms of total money available to spend on amateur talent for 2014. They rank 18th in baseball in terms of international budget at $2,136,800, but despite not selecting until the second half of the draft they rank 5th in draft bonus pool at $8,602,900. This is a result of the compensation pick that was received for Ervin Santana and the competitive balance pick they received for playing in one of the smallest markets in baseball.

Overall, the Royals rank 8th in total budget for 2014 at $10,739,700. The White Sox rank 3rd, the Twins 6th, the Indians 10th, and the Tigers 25th.

With what is rumored to be a deep draft in 2014, the Royals will have four selections in the first 56 (17, 28, 40, 56). This should again present the Royals with a prime opportunity to add to what figures to be one of the top farm systems in baseball heading into 2015.

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Monday Musings: April 7, 2014

A couple of the quickest things to normalize for hitters are their strikeout and walk rates. We're one week into the season and as a team the Royals have logged 185 plate appearances. It is still early, but there are good indications that the 2014 Royals approach could be much better than the 2013 version.

Last season, Royals hitters walked in just 6.7% of their plate appearances. A mark which ranked 27th in all of baseball. In fact, six of the top nine Royals in walk percentage from a season ago are no longer with the team (George Kottaras, Johnny Giavotella, Emilio Bonifacio, Jamey Carroll, Adam Moore, and Chris Getz). So far this season, the Royals are walking in 9.7% of their plate appearances, which is good for 6th in baseball. Last year's league leader walked 9.4% of the time.

On the strikeout side, after ranking second in the league last season, we knew that the Royals would be even better when they brought in Nori Aoki (struck out just 5.9% of the time in 2013) and Omar Infante (9.2% in 2013). So far this season, the Royals are leading the league in strikeout percentage at just 13.5%. Surprisingly, Aoki is has struck out in 15.8% of his plate appearances, while Infante has 13.6% of the time.

Obviously, we are just one week into the season, but this a team that does an excellent job of keeping the ball in play. The Royals have ranked in the top 3 in strikeout percentage in each of the last four seasons with 2010, being their best mark at just 14.6%. If they can keep the percentage under 14% over the entire season it will be the first time a team has done it since the Twins, Dodgers, and Mariners did it in 2007. If they can keep it at 13.5%, it will rank as the lowest number for a team since the Athletics only struck out 13.1% of the time in 2005.

Of course, if we mention the Royals start in the K% and BB% we should also make a point about the lack of power displayed in the first week of the season. Currently, the Royals rank last in baseball in isolated power at 0.61 and 28th in slugging percentage at .305. Oh and by the way, the Royals are the only team in baseball that has yet to hit a home run in 2014. The Giants already have 11.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams! 

Wilmington Blue Rocks 2014 Preview

Defense

LF - Terrance Gore*

CF - Bubba Starling*

RF - Daniel Rockett*

3B - Hunter Dozier*

SS - Raul A. Mondesi*

2B - Jack Lopez

1B - Cody Stubbs*

C - Zane Evans*

Rotation

Miguel Almonte*

Christian Binford*

Sean Manaea*

Daniel Stumpf*

Jonathon Dziedzic*

Bench

C - Cam Gallagher*, C - Beau Maggi*, 1B - Mark Donato*, IF - Kenny Diekroeger, OF - Tyler Chism,      OF - Johermyn Chavez*

Bullpen

Mark Peterson, Kyle Bartsch*, John Walter*, Glenn Sparkman*, Matt Murray*, Yender Caramo*,  Aroni Nina*, Zeb Sneed*, Ali Williams

Notes

• A prospect-heavy team, the Blue Rocks will be the affiliate to watch every day to begin the 2014 season.  Not only will this team be fun to watch, the roster is practically a fresh start for the Frawley Stadium faithful in Wilmington, Delaware.
• Of the 28 players dawning the Blue Rocks uniform, 23 of them will be doing so for the very first time.
• The rotation will consist of 5 brand new starters, including 3 in the Royals' Top 10 prospects according to Baseball America.  Miguel Almonte, ranked #5, joins the Blue Rocks after a stellar 2013 campaign with Lexington.  From various scouts/media, Almonte is considered far more advanced than most of the pitchers in the organization.  He showcases excellent command and possesses secondary pitches, including the best changeup in the Royals system, that assistant GM J.J. Picollo describes as "more advanced than Yordano Ventura at this stage".  Almonte could have made the jump to Double-A with no issues, but the Royals decided to give him some innings in the Carolina League before heading to Springdale, Arkansas.
• Sean Manaea, ranked #6, will make his professional debut with Wilmington after being selected in the Supplemental Round of the 2013 MLB Draft.  Widely considered as one of the top players to go off the board early, some teams were worried about his health as he recovered from a torn labrum in his hip over the off-season, but good fortune was on the Royals side as they were able to take not only Manaea, but Hunter Dozier, as well.  Needless to say, the Royals drafted well.  For a detailed report on the 22 year old, here are some notes from Baseball Prospectus writer Jason Parks.
• If having Almonte and Manaea in the rotation wasn't good enough, Christian Binford, ranked #10, will also join Wilmington for his 3rd professional season.  The 21 year old from Hagerstown, Maryland stands at 6 foot 6 inches, which helps give him a great downward plane to the plate and throws at a 3/4 arm slot.  Although his fastball sits in the very low 90's, there's time for his body to fill out more and possibly gain a little more velocity on his fastball.  Binford is ranked by Baseball America as having the best control in the system for the '14 season, which has been backed up by astounding BB/9 rates in his first 2 seasons (0.90 and 1.67, respectively).  His height, along with the movement of his pitches allow him to keep batted balls on the ground (49.2% last season), will only be to his advantage this year in the Carolina League.  
• The left side of the infield looks down right nasty.  Those who visit Frawley Stadium better enjoy it while they're around.  Manning 3B and SS for the Blue Rocks will be Hunter Dozier (B.A. #7 ranking) and Raul A. Mondesi (B.A. #4 ranking).  In 313 plate appearances split between Idaho Falls and Lexington stints, Dozier already has a career line of .312/.403/.502 and is considered to have the best contact and strike-zone discipline in the system.  The 22 year old will show off an excellent arm and quick first step at third base, but is said to have enough athleticism to make a move to a corner OF spot, if the move is necessary.  Depending on Moustakas in Kansas City...who knows.  
• Dozier's neighbor on the diamond, Mondesi, will open 2014 as the youngest player in the Carolina League at just 18 years old.  Raul, the son of former Major League OF Raul Mondesi, Sr., bats from both sides of the plate and is considered to have better plate appearances as a lefty.  After hitting .261 with 7 HR and 47 RBI, the offensive output will only get better down the road, as he's facing pitchers 4-6 years older than himself.  At shortstop, Mondesi has an outstanding glove with exceptional range thanks to his speed, along with a strong arm.  Nathan Stoltz did a nice piece on Mondesi last November that offers a more in-depth evaluation of the future Royal.
• Two of the organization's top catching prospects will both be in Wilmington for 2014.  Cam Gallagher (B.A. #23 ranking) and Zane Evans (B.A. #24 ranking) will split time behind the plate as they enter their 4th and 2nd seasons, respectively.  

Omaha Storm Chasers 2014 Preview

*Omaha debut

Position Players:

LF - Brian Fletcher

CF - Brett Eibner*

RF - Paulo Orlando

3B - Jimmy Paredes*

SS - Christian Colon

2B - Johnny Giavotella

1B - Matt Fields*

C - Jesus Flores*

Rotation

Chris Dwyer

Danny Duffy

Justin Marks

Ryan Verdugo

John Lamb

Bench

C - Francisco Pena*, IF - Brian Bocock*, OF - Gorkys Hernandez, OF - Melky Mesa*

Bullpen

Buddy Baumann, Aaron Brooks*, Donnie Joseph, Michael Mariot, Clayton Mortensen, Spencer Patton*, Wilking Rodriguez*, Everett Teaford, Brett Tomko*, Ramon Troncoso*, Cory Wade*, P.J. Walters*

Notes:

• A variety of position players and pitchers will make their Omaha debuts this season (14 total), including OF Jimmy Paredes and former Royal Brett Tomko. 
• CF and former Arkansas Razorback Brett Eibner makes his Triple-A debut after spending the past year in NW Arkansas.  Posting career highs in BA, HR, and OPS in 113 games for the Naturals, Eibner started off 2013 on a cold spell (1-32 to begin the season), his future seemed to be on the path towards destruction, but he began to heat up.  At the end of May, he was hitting .208.  In June, he batted .245 with 4 HR, then July he hit .270 with 8 HR.  Come August, he cooled off again, but the fact that he bounced back from such a poor start shows that he worked hard to improve his approach at the plate.  Eibner will impress the crowd at Werner Park with a strong arm and solid range in center field.
• One of the more unfortunate stories of this spring involved a fan favorite: Danny Duffy.  The 25 year old lefty, trying to bounce back from Tommy John surgery in 2012, could not overcome his command issues during his time in the Big League camp.  In 11 innings, Duffy gave up 16 H, 14 ER, 6 HR, and 6 BB.  Both Duffy and Yordano Ventura were vying for the final spot in the Royals' rotation, but in the end, Duffy's struggles and Ventura's dominance made the decision too easy.  Rather than stick Duffy in the bullpen, he will remain as a starter for Omaha to get some innings while working on his control issues.
• Omaha will return a pair of infielders that helped lead them to a Triple-A Championship.  Both Johnny Giavotella and Christian Colon will man second base and shortstop, respectively, for the Storm Chasers.  The two, much like Duffy, were fighting for a spot on the big league roster when newly acquired 2B Omar Infante started having some soreness in his throwing elbow.  Throughout Spring Training, the front runner for a back-up middle infielder was Pedro Ciriaco, who already had Big League playing time with the Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals.  With Infante likely starting the '14 season on the disabled list, Ciriaco seems to have the spot locked down.
• Brett Tomko was an intriguing acquistion this spring.  Turning 41 in April, Tomko has 14 years of ML experience under his belt and last pitched for the Texas Rangers in 2011, only toeing the rubber in 8 games.  Tomko pitched for the Royals in 2008, appearing 16 games, 10 of those were starts.  He logged 60 innings, a 2-7 record with 6.97 ERA, 40 K's, 13 BB, and allowed 49 ER.  In mid-March, Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish reported that Tomko was consistently hitting 91-93 mph on his fastball, while showcasing good command with his changeup and curveball.  A true journeyman of the game, Tomko just isn't ready to hang up the ol' cleats.

Prospect Countdown: #1 Kyle Zimmer

1. Kyle Zimmer Right Handed Pitcher

milb.com

Age: 22
Position: RHP
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 215
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st Round of the 2012 Amateur Draft
From: San Francisco, CA

2013 Rank: 2

Landon Adams (2): The closer I look at Kyle Zimmer's 2013 season, the more impressive the numbers become. On the surface, it is easy to be somewhat disappointed in his 4.82 ERA while at High-A Wilmington. However, a closer look yields some inspiring findings. For example, Zimmer ranked first in the league in strikeouts per nine innings for pitchers logging at least 80 innings (11.34). He also ranked first in SIERA at 2.71. 

Upon his promotion to Northwest Arkansas, Zimmer's peripherals actually ticked up. His strikeouts per nine innings jumped to 13. His walk rate fell from 3.11 per nine to 2.41 and groundball percentage was able to stay at nearly 49%. Unlike in Wilmington though, Zimmer's ERA followed the directions of his peripherals and came in at a sterling 1.93.

I wrote at length about the speculation the Royals hopes that Zimmer could serve a similar role to the one that Michael Wacha served for the Cardinals in 2014. You can read that post here. Personally, this sort of forecast seems extremely optimistic. At the same time the Royals do have a front end starter that is near Major League ready. It would be silly to not plan for him as part of the Major League picture. Hopefully, this plays out for the Royals the same way as it did for the Cardinals a year ago.

Paden Bennett (2): Kyle Zimmer is filthy, he is electric, and downright scary sometimes.  Unfortunately him being shut down early last season due to biceps tendinitis was also scary.  Although Zimmer says his arm feels fine it looks the Royals are going to be very careful with him.  The Royals are going to keep him on a 150 inning limit as of now.  I can get on board with this, Zimmer has an phenomenal arm with phenomenal stuff and he is going to be a big part of our future very soon.  

Zimmer dominated in his brief stint in NWA last year.  In just 18.2 innings he gave up 4 runs with 27 ks to just 5 walks.  He is a power pitcher with big strikeout potential using his incredible fastball and nasty slider.  I hope to see this guy start in NWA or Omaha and get called up to help us during our playoff run this season (ideally).

Joe Cox (1): The number one player on our 2014 Top Prospects List is Kyle Zimmer.  Since being drafted 5^th overall in the 2012 amateur draft, Zimmer has done nothing but dominate while on the field.  Unfortunately, his 2013 season was cut short as a shoulder injury forced him to be shut down for the rest of the year.  The injury should not affect his status in 2014, and he appears to be recovering without any issue, though any time your prize pitching prospect goes under the knife you have to feel a little uneasy.  

Before the injury Zimmer had just made the move up to AA and had four starts and a 1.93 ERA while striking out 13 K/9.  Prior to this in Carolina, Zimmer had a 4.82 ERA in 18 starts.  This ERA was inflated due to a 59.2 LOB%, as his FIP was just 3.12.   Zimmer has also shown great command limiting his walk totals at each level. 

Zimmer has yet to throw a pitch above AA and is coming off an arm injury, so expectations will have to be tempered somewhat for any major league success he could have this year.  That being said, he has the talent where best case scenario is that Zimmer forces the Royals hand and receives some key starts down the stretch.  Zimmer has the ceiling to be a legit 1-2 pitcher in any rotation, and could be a mainstay in the Royals rotation starting as early as this summer. 

Dan Ware (1): Ranked as my #1 prospect on Royal Revival's Countdown, Zimmer was certainly a topic of discussion during Spring Training.  Unfortunately, it wasn't about him vying for the 5th spot in the rotation.  Last season, he was shut down early due to a biceps tendinitis issue, which during the winter gave him complications, but not to worry, the 22 year old phenom says his arm feels great.  That doesn't mean the Royals were ready to just put him on the mound and have him go 100%.  Although Zimmer was invited to the Big League camp this spring, his stint lasted just a couple weeks before heading to the side fields with the Minors.

Despite the gloomy stats in Wilmington, Zimmer never had issues with his shoulder and always felt confident in his stuff, yet still earned his way to Double-A Northwest Arkansas, where he did nothing but dominate the Texas League, as he held batters to a .162/.240/.279 line.  I had the pleasure, along with fellow writers Landon Adams and Nathan Bramwell, to watch Kyle's Double-A debut in Springdale, and it was a dandy: 6 innings of 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K's, which was rewarded by a standing ovation from the crowd.  Consistently, his fastball sits anywhere from 92-96 mph and can go up to 98 mph when he's feelin' it.  That night, Zimmer was touching 100 mph a few times on the mound.  Let's not forget stadium radar gun's can be slightly misleading and that this was his first start in a Naturals uniform, but let's not forget that he has the ability to rear back and throw straight gas. 

The Royals will be giving Zimmer the 'Jose Fernandez' treatment (minus 20 innings).  During February, the Royals decided to give Kyle a 150-inning limit for 2014, regardless of who he's throwing for.  It's still a toss-up if Zimmer will stay in Arizona to for extended S.T., but the Royals hope for Zimmer to open this season with either NW Arkansas or Omaha.  

I fully support the course of action the Royals are taking with Zimmer.  Kyle is now considered the Royals version of Michael Wacha.  If all goes to plan to start 2014, the Royals would like Zimmer to be in Kansas City by June, giving the Royals an extra push towards a playoff berth. 

Nicholas Ian Allen (--): I like Zimmer a lot. He has tremendous upside and should help the big league club this season. That said, I would have ranked him third or fourth in the prospect rankings behind Ventura, Mondesi and possibly Starling.

I wrote about Zimmer in the Prospects on the Verge series for Grading on the Curve. Read my full observation here.

Total Points: 118