Revisiting the Wil Myers Trade

First off, I want to apologize for my absence over the past six weeks. As many of you have read here before, I've never been one to analyze individual games or do weekly updates. Quite frankly, I haven't been writing for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, I haven't had the free time necessary to maintain this blog. I am getting married in October and in the process of a home remodel. Also, my brother was married last night, as well as fellow Royal Revival writer Paden. In addition to these items, I am currently pursuing a Master's degree and have the responsibilities of a full time job. If the posts here are few and far between over the next few months, I hope you can bare with me.

The major reason for this post today is yesterday's blockbuster trade between the Athletics and Cubs. My initial reaction to the trade was 'man, is the Cubs system stacked.' My second thought, I hope this gets Billy Beane a ring.

Despite the lack of pitching prospects in the Cubs system it seems possible that the lovable losers could push for the title of Best Farm System ever. Theo Epstein, who has stated that he wants to build a farm system like the one the Royals had is on the cusp of accomplishing just that. (On a side note, I wonder how many baseball executives looked lustily upon the Royals system and thought to themselves, "oh if only I could be the one to take them to the next level.")

Since the trade there have been many who have comped this deal to the trade that sent Wil Myers to Tampa Bay. Let me be perfectly clear, this comparison is lazy. Yes, both the Royals and A's sent a top ten prospect plus to another team for pitching talent in an attempt to win now. No, that doesn't make the trades equal. This mentality that one is approved because it is Billy Beane and the other is rejected because it is Dayton Moore is unfair to the fans smart enough to evaluate moves on a much deeper level.

The Royals made the trade to get to the periphery of playoff contention. The Athletics made the trade to win a world series title. If you equate these two items as being of the same value, then you can click the X found in the upper right hand corner of the browser. A team's placement on the win curve is essential in determining what they should be willing to pay for each additional win. This is rudimentary stuff, but somehow seems to be forgotten by those stating these trades are one in the same.

Another point that should be made is that the Royals trade occurred in the off-season, a time in which talent can be acquired without sacrificing talent already in hand. Quite simply, if the A's wanted to improve their rotation in July, they had no choice but to move talent from their organization. In the off-season, the Royals could in theory acquire talent, while also hanging on to the talent at hand. This represents an enormous difference in the trades.

Finally, Addison Russell, while he is an outstanding prospect is not ready to contribute at the Major League level. He has played 16 games in the upper levels of the Minor Leagues. Best case is that he is called up midway through next season. Meaning the A's were not going to get a return on him for basically an entire season. Wil Myers on the other hand was Major League ready and returns on him would begin the same time as the returns of the asset. This is a key point that I haven't seen mentioned, but should not be ignored.

Of course, all of this pushed me to revisit the Myers trade. Since the Royals seemingly made the decision to go for it in 2013 and 2014, it would make sense that they would have returned much more value in the short term than the Rays. In order to see if the Royals have come out ahead in the Myers-Shields trade, I decided to compare the post trade WAR totals for the Royals with the WAR total from the Royals in an alternate universe in which they stayed the course and held on to Wil Myers. Also, since the Royals would have had a solution in right field, I have included the Smith brothers, Justin Maxwell, and Nori Aoki in this evaluation.

bWAR	2013	2014		fWAR	2013	2014
w/out trade	$1.00	$1.50		w/out trade	$1.00	$1.50
Patrick Leonard	A	A+		Patrick Leonard	A	A+
Mike Montgomery	AAA	AAA		Mike Montgomery	AAA	AAA
Jake Odorizzi	0.3	0.9		Jake Odorizzi	0.3	1.5
Wil Myers	1.9	-0.6		Wil Myers	2.4	0.4
Will Smith		1.3		Will Smith		0.6
Kyle Smith	A+	AA		Kyle Smith	A+	AA
	2.2	1.6			2.7	2.5
w/trade	$11.80	$20.25		w/trade	$11.80	$20.25
James Shields	4.1	-0.1		James Shields	4.5	1.4
Wade Davis	-2.1	1.8		Wade Davis	1.7	1.5
Nori Aoki		-0.5		Nori Aoki		0.9
Justin Maxwell	0.6	-1.2		Justin Maxwell	0.7	-1.1
	2.6	0			6.9	2.7

The left hand column utilized the WAR from Baseball Reference, while the right side uses Fangraphs' version. As you can see, the Royals clearly came out ahead in 2013, but depending on which WAR you prefer it was either just 0.4 wins or 4.2 wins ahead. Let's split the difference and say the Royals were 2.3 wins better because of the trade. In 2014, we find that according to bWAR the Royals are actually 1.6 WAR worse because of the trade, while fWAR says they are 0.2 wins better. Again let's split the difference and say they are 1.4 wins worse because of the trade. 

Really based off the above totals, no matter how you slice it, it is hard to argue that the Royals were much better off over the past two seasons due to the acquiring of James Shields and Wade Davis. In fact, based off of our midway points, the Royals actually were just 0.9 wins better over the last year and a half, thanks to the trade. I doubt this is what Royals officials had in mind when they pulled the trigger on the trade that would send their top prospect to Tampa Bay.

Unfortunately for Royals fans it gets worse. As you can see in the above tables, there is also a dollar figure included. This represents in millions how much the Royals paid for the players. In 2013, the Royals spent $10.8 million more for the bottom group and in 2014 the total jumped to $18.75 million more. My guess is that this difference could have been spent on the free agent market to acquire an additional win over the last year and a half, which would have made the top grouping better even in the short run. 

Fortunately, there is a way that we can consider the monetary implications in our evaluation. In 2013, Fangraphs valued each win at approximately $5 million. If we multiply that by the WAR total for each set and add in the difference in money to the alternate universe scenario, the Myers led Royals squad boasts an average over $23.05 million in value between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs to $23.75 million for the Shields version (approximately 0.1 win). This obviously is a slight edge to the Shields led Royals. However, the 2014 averages favor the Myers led squad $54.1 million to $26.65 million (roughly 4.6 wins).

Clearly, the Royals were willing to sacrifice the long term to push the envelope in the short term. Unfortunately, based off these numbers the Royals have lost tremendously in the short run as well. Even if we discount each year following 2013, the numbers are going to be staggeringly one sided when this set of trades is evaluated. To close, let me just give you an update on the other guys the Royals gave up that have yet to contribute at the Major League level. 

Patrick Leonard: Hitting .298/.386/.521 in 76 games with Tampa Bay's High A team. His 12 homers would be tied for third most in the Royals organization. He is 21 years old.

Mike Montgomery: 3.28 ERA in 85 innings with Triple A Durham (most hitter friendly park in league). He leads the International League in FIP and SIERA. Still just 24 years old. 

Kyle Smith: Has pitched 78.1 innings between the Astros High-A and Double A teams. Currently has a 3.56 ERA, is striking out 10.23 per 9 innings and walking just 2.64. He is also 21 years old.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

When Friedman Stole Christmas

Okay, I am the other writer for Royal Revival that has been chosen to spill his thoughts on the Myers-Shields trade.  While Damion Mandalas looked at a few of the positives and tried to see both sides, I am just going to react on how I really think this trade panned out for us as Royal Nation.

I will always remember last night, it could very well define my childhood love of the Kansas City Royals.  December 9th, 2012.  It was a cold, chilly night; I was sitting by the fire watching the Dark Knight rises when all of a sudden, I clicked the Twitter app on my iPhone only to find that Andrew Friedman had been lurking in the shadows waiting to pounce on his prey.  Okay, I'll quit this theatrical thing I got going on, but really I was freaking out.  In fact, when I saw the possible trade I got that bad feeling in your stomach when you think you're about to puke.  This couldn't be true. Remember during the Winter Meetings when these rumors were going on? And they passed through?  Surely that would be the case this time.  No, this rumor seemed different, tons of analysts were reporting this rumor and tons were saying it could be done shortly.

After an hour or two of frantically panicking about us trading what some Royals fans called the "Last Hope" Wil Myers.  It was complete.  It was the worst text notification I have ever received from ESPN.  I just stared at it.  No words could come out.  That initial reaction was only seeing that we had traded Wil Myers and other prospects for James Shields and Wade Davis.  I was sick just seeing that, but when it came out that we had also given Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery AND Patrick Leonard.  I knew that Andrew Friedman had struck again.  I have two friends of mine that are Rays fans.  They are actually brothers, and I joke with them all the time saying "The Royals aren't smart enough to play with Friedman".  Now there is actually some evidence to that statement.

This trade made me sick.  It was a desperation move by a desperate General Manager who hasn't done squat in his tenure with the Royals.  What the heck is he doing?  We clearly overpaid for James Shields.  Those two Rays fans will tell you the same, and I am as big of a James Shields fan as they come. I've always loved this guy.  However, we gave up way too much for possibly (probably) only two years of "Big Game James".  I was happy that Yordano Ventura and Kyle Zimmer weren't involved in the trade because I like them both better than Odorizzi and Montgomery but still, trading our Minor League Player of the year for a guy that we will probably only have for two years doesn't make sense to me at all.

I'm not a huge Jake Odorizzi fan but I definitely think he could turn out to be a solid 2-3 SP in the big leagues.  I don't know how Friedman got us to put him in the trade but whatever he said to sweet talk more really worked.  Mike Montgomery going doesn't rile me up as much, because he has just disappointed me the last two seasons.  I loved this guy and thought he was going to be a STUD.  I still think he has more upside than Odorizzi does, he just needs someone to tap into it.  The scary thing to me is I think the Rays will tap into his potential.  It makes me cringe that the Rays possibly could have one of the best hitters in the majors in Wil Myers and if Montgomery reaches his potential then they could possibly have one of the best pitchers as well.

Now that I have been through all of the negatives to this trade and why I don't think it was a smart move by the Royals; lets go through some WHAT IF scenarios.

If I would have wrote this post last night, this paragraph would not have been included.  I was too upset, and just pissed off at what Dayton Moore had done.  I was among those on the Royals Twitterverse that were just going crazy tweeting how stupid I thought we were and retweeting other people that were saying the same thing.  After a good nights sleep, I have thought through some things.  This trade maybe, just maybe could turn out to be a decent trade for Royals fans.  Just think, WHAT IF we do indeed advance to the playoffs in the next 2 seasons? WHAT IF James Shields leads us to an ALDS?  How much fun would that be?  Throughout my 20 years of being a Royals fan I have never once seen a playoff team or even sniff contention most years.  Now we have no excuses, we pushed the chips all in.  Dayton can say that these next two seasons aren't "playoffs or bust" seasons but they are.  Royal nation is aching for a winner, and now you made the big move.  It's time for us to make the transition to being a playoff team.  WHAT IF we do make the playoffs in the next two seasons or so, how fun would that be?  I don't know, I have never been a part of it.  However, I'm sure it would feel a heck of a lot better than consistently losing 90-100 games and watching Luke Hochevar take the mound on opening day.

I will end this post with one tweet I said last night, that drew some response from Royals fans.  I said I have been going to Opening Day for the last 8 years or so and not once have I seen an above average SP on the hill for us.  This year I can finally be there on Opening Day when we do have a stud who can beat anyone on any given day.

That is a step in the right direction, like I said I was unbelievably negative about this yesterday.  I still hate the trade but the chips are all in so we as fans might as well go all in too.  "Big Game James," you have a great opportunity to bring a winner to a city starving for one. I truly hope you embrace this challenge.

Playing Devil's Advocate on the Big Trade

At some point in the near future, another Royal Revival writer will put up his thoughts on the trade that sent James Shields, Wade Davis and a Player to be Named Later to Kansas City for Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard. For now, you are stuck with some of my thoughts on the subject.

There are a couple of ways that teams can go about roster construction. For the Tampa Bay Rays, they operate on the mantra of having one eye on the present with one eye on the future. The Rays are pretty unique in this regard, viewing players as assets while constantly trying to stockpile for the long term. The Oakland Athletics are another team that operates in this type of fashion.

The opposite approach is the idea that a team has to go for a window. Teams like the Reds, Brewers, Giants and Cardinals tend to take this type of approach, using prospects as fodder to net Major League pieces in order to contend when the possibility exists. There isn't necessarily a right or wrong way and their are pros and cons to both approaches.

Using an asset compiling approach, the Tampa Bay Rays have been able to average 91 wins per season over the last 5 years. At the same time, the Rays have been criticized for not dealing from their pitching surplus to acquire offense and the Rays have advanced to the World Series just once. The Giants and Cardinals have taken a much different approach. Both of these organizations have seized opportunities and as a result have combined to win the last three World Series titles.

As much as I personally love the Rays way of doing business, I always knew that Dayton Moore was a window guy and as the 2012 off-season has played out it was inevitable that Dayton Moore would deal from his farm system in an attempt to improve in the present.

It appears, that Dayton Moore has marked his window. With the addition of James Shields many have said that Dayton Moore has sent a clear message to the American League that the Royals are ready to contend. Those same individuals rationalize that unless the Royals truly believe that they can contend, why would they pull the trigger on such a move. Of course, what isn't being considered here is that it is just as likely that the Royals front office felt as though they had to contend as opposed to that they would contend.

The ultimate fear in this deal is that Dayton Moore stretched himself because he is feeling the heat. As a result, he sacrificed far too much of the long term in favor of the present. Ultimately, the Royals traded what accounts for 24 seasons of team control for about 7 seasons. This is not to say the deal is clearly a bad one for Kansas City, in fact, I am amazed by the group think of the Royals Twitterverse.

Do I like the trade? No, I do not. However, it is amazing to me how an entire fanbase can achieve such singularity in thought on Twitter. Maybe this is because the trade is so obviously bad for Kansas City. More likely, there is so much pessimism and peer pressure among the Royals fan base that people are afraid to voice opinions contrary to what the so called experts think.

Once again, let me just state that I am not a fan of this trade. If I was in Dayton Moore's shoes, there is no way I would have pulled the trigger. However, I have always thought it is important to see both sides to any trade. For that reason, I am going to play a little devil's advocate for the remainder of this post.

Let's start with the most obvious point. James Shields is a damn good pitcher. In seven professional seasons he has compiled 25.3 fWAR, while logging over 200 innings in six straight seasons and posting a career ERA of 3.89. He will turn 31 in ten days and for three straight seasons has recorded over 8 K/9 while allowing just over 2 BB/9. Oh and by the way, over the past three seasons Shields has witnessed his fly ball percentage drop 9%. In 2012, for the first time in his career he recorded a ground ball percentage over 50%. If this trend continues, Shields represents that rare pitcher that not only has a strong K:BB, but also induces a solid amount of ground balls.

Contrary to what Ken Rosenthal might say, Shields is not an ace. However, there is no reason to be ashamed of having him front your team's rotation. To put it simply, anyone that is attempting to degrade this trade by bashing James Shields is ignorant of what this pitcher has accomplished throughout his career.

The other piece coming to Kansas City is Wade Davis. In his first full two seasons, Wade Davis was a pretty mediocre starting pitcher. In 2012, he threw 70 innings out of the Rays bullpen and saw his K/9 sky rocket to 11.1. The keys to Davis transition to the bullpen were the ways in which his slider and curve ball both became weapons to put away hitters. According to Fangraphs, Davis's slider rated at 4.8 runs above average, while his curve ball registered at 6.7.

The key to this trade, will be Davis's ability to translate those weapons from the bullpen into a starting job. It goes without being said that if Davis can continue to strike out hitters at his 2012 rate, he is clearly a front of the rotation piece. More likely there will be regression. If Davis can simply maintain a K rate around 7-8, while keeping his walks around 3 per 9, the Royals will have found themselves a three starter.

It may be oversimplifying matters, but whether or not Davis can keep a plus slider and curve ball in the rotation may determine if this trade is a long term win or loss for Kansas City. Davis is currently signed to guaranteed money in in 2013 and 2014 at $2.8 and $4.8 million respectively. He then has team options for $7 million, $8 million, and $10 million. Yes, the Royals have five years of team control on Davis. However, unless he can be a valuable member of the rotation, his price tag will be too high to warrant the exercising of those options.

Finally, let's get into the prospects involved. What is unfortunate, is that each of these four pieces are good prospects and it isn't hard to imagine each of them making Kansas City regret the deal on their own merit. However, there is also an overvaluation of prospects in baseball today.

According to some reports, many Royals officials view Myers as more of a Nick Markakis type than a Ryan Braun type. Also, there is a reasoning that it is much easier to find production in right field than it is to find front of the rotation pitchers. I expect Myers to have a very strong career, but it isn't a lock that he is going to be a superstar.

I've actually grown a bit bored with Jake Odorizzi and according to some the Royals don't view him in the same class of prospects as Kyle Zimmer or Yordano Ventura. In fact, several recent scouting reports slot him in as a 3/4 type, rather than the 2 starter that many of us were hoping for. Once again, I like Odorizzi. I think he is going to be a valuable piece in a big league rotation, but the upside isn't what we once thought it was. His fastball is straight and he currently is lacking an out pitch to make him a front end guy at the Major League level.

Mike Montgomery might be the most interesting piece of this entire trade. I can't wait to see if Tampa is able to bring out some of that promise. I am already preparing myself for Montgomery's breakout campaign. Royals fans will complain and rightly so, but at this point it is hard to imagine him ever taking this sort of step in the Royals organization.

Finally, there is Patrick Leonard. Leonard has excellent power and JJ Cooper even pinned him as a guy to watch moving forward for the Royals system. Ultimately, he is four years away and it makes sense to include him to get a deal like this done.

There is a good chance that the Kansas City Royals will rue the day when this trade was conducted. Myers could become a superstar, Odorizzi could throw 200 innings annually, and Montgomery could find that potential. Of course, there is also the chance that Myers isn't the superstar we all hoped, that Odorizzi doesn't have the stuff to be a mid rotation type, and that Montgomery will never live up to his once awesome potential.

Ultimately, even if the former of those things happen, there is no reason this trade can't be a win-win for both parties. The Royals haven't made the playoffs since 1985. If, by chance, the Royals do make the playoffs in 2013, should we complain? Does that make the trade a win for Kansas City?

This trade may have literally made me sick, but I've been a Royals fan for twenty years. Never in my life has Kauffman Stadium hosted playoff baseball. It is natural for Royals fans to critique moves. Every fan base should do it and it is irresponsible to not consider the implications of transactions, even if they make the current team better.

With that being said, I can't help but imagine James Shields toeing the rubber on Opening Day and I long for the summer when the Royals are actually playing meaningful games in August and dare I say September. I always attempt to evaluate moves from an analytical perspective, but first and foremost I am a fan, damn it. This trade may be incredibly costly to the Royals future, but they believe in a window and for the first time in my life they aren't just paying lip service to winning now.

Looking Ahead: The Rotation

Unfortunately, we are 40 games into the season and the Royals sit just 16-24. It doesn't take an astute observer to point out that the major flaw of this team and largest hindrance on future optimism has been its rotation. So what are we looking at to open 2013? Can the rotation at least be average? 

Potential Rotation Members Returning:

• Luke Hochevar
• Felipe Paulino
• Bruce Chen
• Danny Duffy* (Won't be back until June at the earliest.)

If you are still a believer in Hochevar, the Royals are two starters short, if not Kansas City will need to fill three spots. What the Royals do with these two openings will be critical, if they play it safe as they did last off season, an average rotation is likely a pipe dream. But let's keep in mind that the Royals may not necessarily have to fill all the open spots via free agency. So who could be ready from the farm?

• Mike Montgomery- With 35 starts in AAA, it'll just take a few dominate starts for Montgomery to break into the majors. Considering he has about 20 starts left in this season, he'll likely be ready to bust in next season. (We hope.)
• Will Smith- People tend to forget about Smith, because the upside just isn't as high for the former Angels farmhand. But the Royals feel very strongly that he has a near Major League arm and that eventually he could hold down a spot at the back of the rotation.
• Jake Odorizzi- Having proven himself in AA, he has the remainder of the summer to do the same in Omaha. He may not open in Kansas City next season, but there's a good chance he'll be in the mix to do so. 

(I've chosen not to include either Chris Dwyer or John Lamb because both have yet to prove themselves in AA. They could easily break into the Majors at some point in 2013, but we're looking at what the rotation could be to open the season.)

There's another guy that should be given the chance to start in 2013. The Royals paid a lot of lip service to Aaron Crow in the rotation entering 2012, but when Joakim Soria lost his season to Tommy John, the Royals felt Crow was needed to much in the bullpen. Considering the way the rotation has gone thus far, come mid-August Crow absolutely should be given the opportunity to start every fifth day. If Crow pitches even average in that month and a half, he should be given a rotation spot entering 2013.

So there's seven possibilities heading into 2013. If two out of Montgomery, Odorizzi, and Crow show they are ready to hold down rotation spots the Royals rotation will already receive an upgrade. Sure there would be some growing pains, but the talent and upside would be there. 

I also find it very unlikely that the front office would keep their hands out of free agency should the rotation continue to be as bad as it has been thus far. Fortunately for Kansas City, the upcoming free agent crop appears to be strong on the pitching side of things. The most intriguing name of the group for most of us is Zack Greinke. Personally, I expect him to be priced way out of the Royals range.

Another name to keep an eye on would be Kansas City's own and Missouri State prospect Shaun Marcum. If the Royals were able to net any hometown discount at all he would make a ton of sense. In seven seasons he boasts a career 3.74 ERA with a career K/BB of 2.64. 

Obviously, the road bump that Mike Montgomery has encountered is nerve racking. Clearly, the current rotation is a cause for concern. However, Chen continues to defy odds and it isn't hard to imagine him at least being a serviceable back end guy in 2013. Paulino could be the best starter on the roster. Personally, I could see him as a 2 or 3 on an average staff. If the Royals go get a free agent the Royals will have a make shift 1 (albeit most likely not an ace).

Finally, out of Luke Hochevar, Mike Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi, Nate Adcock and Will Smith, you need two to be the 3 and 4 starters. Obviously, several of the aforementioned guys offer more upside than the Royals have had in past rotations. Oh, and don't forget Danny Duffy will be back in June and John Lamb, Chris Dwyer, Jason Adam, and Yordano Ventura could be knocking at the door soon after. 

The Royals don't necessarily need to trade for a front end starter. The possibility exists that the rotation could be stronger next year than this year simply by giving the right guys the opportunity. I'd prefer to see the Royals take a more aggressive approach. There are free agents that would make sense, that could round out the front end. There's no reason to sell out for the ace, if the Kansas City's in contention next July, maybe then it will be time.

Prospect Countdown: #3 Mike Montgomery

#3 Mike Montgomery


Age: 22
Position: LHP
Height: 6-4
Weight: 200
Acquired: Drafted by the Royals in the 1st Round of the 2008 Amateur Draft
From: Valencia, CA




Thanks to a strong resume, excellent scouting reports, and a stud Spring in 2011, I rated Mike Montgomery as the top prospect on my rankings. However, after a brutal 2012 campaign some are starting to question the lanky left hander.

Montgomery, who now famously was kicked off the high school team for too many technicals, has been called a bulldog on the mound. He has been praised for his ability to come inside, and his fearlessness on the rubber. In 2012, the Royals wanted Montgomery to focus on his change and moving up and down in the zone as opposed to side to side. Montgomery struggled throughout the summer, posting an ERA 6 in his final 22 starts.

The Royals have looked at the bright side of his rough 2011. They point to a curveball that now grades a full grade higher. But perhaps Montgomery's 2011 wasn't quite as dreadful as it looks on the surface. For a moment consider this comparison (I have taken the player's statistic and subtracted the league average mark):

FIP

Player 1: -0.20

Player 2: -0.26

SIERA

Player 1: -0.22

Player 2: -0.28

K/9

Player 1: +0.69

Player 2: +0.39

BB/9:

Player 1: +0.32

Player 2: +0.22

HR/9

Player 1: -0.15

Player 2: -0.27

Groundball %

Player 1: +5.4

Player 2: +8.3

Player 1 in this comparison is of course Mike Montgomery. Player 2 is Oakland A's starter Jarrod Parker. Parker's season  was considered an excellent year by most helping to solidify his status as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. Montgomery's season was considered a huge disappointment.

There are a couple of things I want you to notice in this crude comparison. First, Mike Montgomery and Jarrod Parker had very similar seasons in comparison to their league's average in terms of peripheral performance. (Basically this is an attempt to adjust for the league average and compare numbers between players at different levels.) The second thing I want you to notice is that both out performed the league average marks in each of these statistics.

Finally, I want to add one more point. Jarrod Parker's results came in Double-A, while Montgomery's came in Triple-A. Throw in that Montgomery is about half a year younger than Parker, and you start to wonder if Montgomery's season was quite as disappointing as it appears after a cursory glance.

I'm sure that Montgomery was more frustrated with his 2011 performance than anybody. Not to mention that there were rumblings of a conflict in pitching ideology. Hopefully, with a new minor league pitching instructor in place a common ground can be reached to allow Montgomery's stuff to find consistency. 

As for the stuff it is still there. Monty can blow it past hitters with low 90s heat that can touch 96. Or Monty can have hitters swinging at nothingness with his plus change up. The curveball is still a work in progress, but at the moment he is throwing a traditional version that comes to the plate in the mid 70s. 

I remain optimistic when it comes to Mike Montgomery, but there is no doubt 2012 is a big year for him. With that being said, he should find his way to Kansas City at some point this summer. I can't wait until he gets going and as of now it is less than twenty-four hours away as he'll serve as the Opening Day starter for the Omaha Storm Chasers. 

Picture taken from KCRoyals.com.

Pull the Trigger

By now Royals fans are well aware the free agent starter Roy Oswalt is targeting a one year deal at around $8 million. But now there are also rumblings that fellow free agent starter Edwin Jackson has lowered his asking price from 5 years, 65 million all the way down to a one year deal. Let me make this perfectly clear, if the Royals aren't involved on these two starters and they wind up signing for one year deals elsewhere, the Royals will have missed a huge opportunity.

The rumors have been clear that Oswalt is looking to land a one year deal with a contender, something I can totally understand. However, when it comes to professional athletes, I've learned that there is always a dollar figure that can buy them out of their notions of going to a winner, or staying near home, or whatever else for that matter. Not to mention if Oswalt came to Kansas City, I'm sure the top reason he'd give to the press is that the Royals are on the verge of contention and that he wants to be a part of something special in Kansas City.

The Royals have the money to spend in their current budget. The team is right around $60 million for 2012, after being over $70 million in both 2009 and 2010. In fact, there was a time when the Royals payroll was closer to $80 million than 70. Last year the payroll was in the $35-40 million dollar range. So it isn't unrealistic at all to assume that the Royals possess the flexibility that would be necessary to add another starter into the budget. The Royals would likely have to pay more than 'a contender' to lure Oswalt or Jackson in, but ultimately money talks.

In fact, Dayton Moore himself has even stated that the team was looking into acquiring another starter, before ultimately deciding to take the prudent route and saving the final rotation spot for one of the kids. If you believe that the fifth rotation spot belongs to Duffy, Crow, Teaford, or Montgomery, that's fine. But personally I think all of the aforementioned pitchers could use more time in Omaha honing their craft.

The Rays have possibly the best rotation depth in all of baseball. In 2012, there will likely be two starters that don't make the Rays rotation that would be one of the best starters on the Royals roster.Look at the manner in which the Rays have developed their starters. The Rays develop their starters with patience.

There is a belief that pitchers have to make adjustments at the next level. Many Royals fans are of the opinion that Danny Duffy has learned all that he can in Omaha. They would argue that sending him to Omaha to begin 2012 would serve no purpose developmentally. They may be right, I am no expert in pitcher development. However, I would point to the Rays model, which has been pretty effective over the past few seasons. Look how many innings some of their prospects threw in the upper levels, before becoming fixtures in the rotation:

David Price: 109.1

Matt Moore: 155

Matt Garza: 183.1

Alex Cobb: 187

Jeremy Hellickson: 307

Alexander Torres: 323.2

Jeff Niemann: 361

Wade Davis: 399.1

Of course Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, and Alexander Torres could all add more innings in 2012. Also of note is that the starter with the least amount of innings in the upper levels is David Price, who is probably the most advanced college arm ever outside of Stephen Strasburg (Strasburg by the way threw just 66.1 innings in the upper levels). 

Here's a look at where the Royals arms stand in the upper level inning count:

John Lamb: 68

Jake Odorizzi: 68.2

Danny Duffy: 81.2

Aaron Crow: 119.1

Chris Dwyer: 159

Mike Montgomery: 210.1

Everett Teaford: 219.2

The Rays are arguably the best team in professional baseball right now in terms of developing starting pitchers and keeping those pitchers healthy at the Major League level. Thanks to a patient approach that waits for starters to force their hand they have successfully developed a deep starting rotation. As a result of this rotation they have been able to compete in the toughest division in baseball, despite financial restrictions that their rivals don't face.

Like I have said, I'm not an expert on prospect development. I am merely looking at what the best have done and wondering aloud if the Royals would be wise to emulate it. As it stands there is one open rotation spot for 2012. The rotation at this point consists of Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, and Felipe Paulino. If the Royals were to add another starter on a one year deal the benefit could be twofold. 

First, the Royals would strengthen their rotation in the short run. But also Danny Duffy, Aaron Crow, and Mike Montgomery would all be allowed to return to Omaha, where they could continue to develop. At some point a rotation spot will open up as the result of injury or poor performance and then the most deserving of three can get the promotion to Kansas City. Later another spot will open up and perhaps even another. By Opening Day 2013, there will likely be plenty of room in the rotation for all three should they deserve it and the rotation at that point could be a force.

There are also service time benefits of a plan such as this. If Aaron Crow spends some time in the minors his free agency will be pushed back a season. If Mike Montgomery comes up at mid season his free agency and super two status could both be pushed back a season. If Danny Duffy spends a few weeks in Omaha, his Super Two status could be pushed back by a season. 

By adding another starter now the Royals could save themselves millions of dollars in arbitration and even gain some extra team control. I'm sure the Royals are aware of all of this and considering Luis Mendoza is out of options they may have a plan for starting him in the rotation to reach these benefits. Mendoza isn't a bad depth player, but if the Royals are serious about contending he won't open the season in the rotation.

There are two very talented starting pitchers that could be available on one year deals. The benefits of signing one of them could reach far beyond improving the Opening Day rotation. If the division is going to be as tight  as I believe it will be, the addition of either starter could propel the Royals into a tighter race. More wins means staying in contention longer. Staying in contention longer means more ticket sales. More ticket sales mean more money. 

Even if the Royals fall out of contention, both Oswalt and Jackson would be hot commodities on the trade market in July. If they perform as expected they would both be worth a decent prospect in return, and will have already served their value in allowing the Royals pitching prospects more development time. 

If I was sure that the Royals would take their extra financial flexibility in 2012, place it in a bank account and allow it to accumulate interest until Hosmer and Moustakas could be extended I would consider that route. But I can't be sure that the funds would roll over in such a manner. However, if signing Edwin Jackson or Roy Oswalt paid out all of the potential dividends the financial hit it would take to sign them would be minute. 

There is obviously risk involved, but the Royals most glaring weakness is starting pitching and right now there are two starters that could upgrade this staff. If the Royals can grab one of them on a one year deal, well I think I've been pretty clear on potential rewards of that. If the Royals can't afford them, well shame on the Royals for jumping the gun and dishing out $4.5 million to Bruce Chen and another $2 million to Yunieskey Betancourt.

It may not be realistic to expect the Royals to make anymore major moves this offseason. But it isn't unrealistic to believe that they could afford to do so. There's an opportunity, I just hope the Royals pounce. Pull the trigger and let's make the AL Central a two horse race in 2012.

Winter Meetings: Day 1 Round Up

So here are some quick hits of the Royals rumors today:

1. Royals are one of five teams interested in Carlos Guillen. This would have to come real cheap, and since Guillen wouldn't even be a viable back up for Escobar, I'm just not sure how this fits. Looking at the market, I'm beginning to think that Navarro presents the best blend of versatility and bat skill for our bench. It just becomes a matter of how important for the organization to have him playing everyday.

2. Royals are dangling Soria and Holland for pitching, but are asking for a lot. The Royals have every right to be asking for a lot, even considering last season, Soria has been one of the top closers in baseball and still has an incredibly favorable contract. Holland of course is under team control for five more seasons after dominating in 2011.

3. Royals are aggressively pursuing starting pitching and are talking with the Athletics about Gio Gonzalez. I haven't heard of any specific names from the Royals end, but I would imagine the Athletics are demanding a lot in return. For me my interest in Gio hinges on the Athletics demand. I don't include Myers, but a package involving one of either Odorizzi or Montgomery, Colon and a lower level guy like Eibner, Bonifacio, Ventura, Yambati, or Adam would make sense to me, but I'd imagine wouldn't for the Athletics.

4. Royals have also kicked tires on Jeremy Guthrie. As is case with everyone greatly depends on cost. I think Guthrie's numbers would improve should he be dealt to Kansas City, however, with a cursory glance over his numbers I'm not convinced we'd be adding anything more than a #3. Quite frankly we've got plenty of potential #3s.

5. Royals have scouted Cuban Yoenis Cespedes. To be clear, Dayton Moore basically said he would likely fall way out of the Royals price range, but there is a precedent for the Royals shocking the industry on the Cuban market. If the Royals do love Cespedes, and are concerned with Cain... well... yeah, I'd still be shocked if we landed Cespedes.

6. The Royals and Rays have discussed Shields, with Rays seeking a return of Soria, Myers, and Colon. In trades for guys like Shields, teams typically have to give up a centerpiece, quality player, and one or two complimentary pieces. My problem with this trade is that the Royals would be giving up too much. Soria is an elite closer on a team friendly deal, Myers is a blue chip prospect, and Christian Colon was the #4 overall selection in the 2010 draft. But don't forget, it is rare for teams to actually get the haul that they initially demand. Just because the Rays are seeking that package, doesn't mean that the Royals would have give up that to obtain Big Game James. We'll just have to wait and see.

Royals resign Chen

SI's Jon Heyman reports that the Royals have signed Bruce Chen to a two year deal worth $9 million guaranteed, with up to $1 million in incentives and up to $1 million in roster bonuses. I have heard that the report is premature, but I tend to believe it is probably correct.

I have several issues with this signing, the first of which is time. Why are the Royals making this deal with so many pitchers still on the market? Why not wait and see if the market forces Chen or another option to take less than they were hoping for. If the Royals were afraid that Chen would be signed soon, oh well, take the pick and smile.

To me your evaluation of Chen as a pitcher hinges on what type of fan you are. Do you value ERA? Or do you evaluate Chen based on his xFIP? Personally I think that when reviewing a season xFIP doesn't really matter, because luck is part of the game. However, when using one season's statistics to look toward the future I believe the more advanced statistics are way better than the crudeness of ERA.

For the past two seasons Chen has been the top starter to wear a Royals uniform. In that time he has also developed a cult following thanks to the work of Will Ferrell and company. For some fans this alone seems to raise Chen's value, but I digress.

Now in the KC Star Dayton Moore suggested that the club would still like to add two starters. If the team did this they would have a rotation of Hochevar, Sanchez, Chen, Paulino and the free agent. Meaning Duffy could begin the season in Omaha to ensure he misses Super Two and to allow him to develop just a little bit more. Eventually one of those starters falters or gets hurt and luckily you have depth.

I am all for depth., but guaranteeing $9 million to Chen doesn't seem like a depth move. It seems like a scared move. As in the Royals are scared they will miss out on other targets and won't have the security of Bruce Chen once the time comes.

Personally, Chen was my final back up plan. If all else failed, I would have loved to see the Royals bring back Chen. Especially if the deal could have been for one year, with some sort of option for the second. I would have been all for that deal. But promising Bruce Chen two years when there are so many other options out there seems silly to me.

Even if you don't believe that the Royals have other options on the free agent market, surely you can admit that there are several internal options that could be just as strong as Chen (Montgomery, Crow, Teaford). If you look to the 2013 season you may be able to throw several more starters into the mix as better options.

For me Jeff Francis would have been a better option to return to Kansas City next season. I see 2011, as similar seasons between Francis and Chen. Both are projected to post a 4.22 ERA by Bill James in 2012. But James also projects Francis to post a significantly stronger FIP, a prediction that would strongly resemble what happened in 2011, when Francis despite having an ERA nearly a full run higher than Francis, showed stronger peripheral numbers.

In the end, with the pitchers being so similar, I would have preferred Francis for the simple fact that Chen leaving would bring the Royals a draft pick. Surely that counts for something right? To me if the pitchers pitch the same in 2012 as they did 2011, it is a no brainer that Francis and a draft pick would be the more appealing option.

At this point we can't know what Francis will sign for, but early indications are that he will receive a similar deal for 2012 that he got for 2011. If Francis could have been had on a one year offer this becomes an even more obvious decision.

There are some pitchers that are able to consistently outperform their FIP, and I do think that Chen could be one of those guys. For the past two seasons he has carved out a Jamie Moyer kind of career. I wouldn't be shocked if Chen continued this trend. But personally I'm not confident enough in these odds to wager a two year, $9 million commitment.

There is also the issue of durability. For a long time you could pencil Jamie Moyer for right around 200 innings pitched. Even in 2009, when this figure dropped to 162, it would have been the second highest of Bruce Chen's career. If I knew I could count on Chen to log 200 innings I'd feel much more optimistic about this deal. But instead Chen hasn't made over 25 starts in either of the last two seasons.

Look around the Royals' rotation. Who is eating innings and protecting the bullpen? Hochevar has proven to be a bit injury prone over the last couple of seasons. Paulino has never logged over 140 Big League innings. Jonathan Sanchez battled injuries for most of 2011. Danny Duffy is a young arm that probably isn't ready to jump over 200 innings.

Let's hope Dayton Moore is serious when he talks about bringing in another starter, because for in my opinion this team will definitely need it at some point. But if you do bring in another free agent starter you basically assure yourself that Aaron Crow and/or Everett Teaford won't be shifting to the rotation and that Mike Montgomery won't be winning a spot in the rotation with a spectacular Spring.

The Royals rotation is probably stronger today than it was yesterday. But is it stronger than it was in 2011? Not in my opinion. Chen outperformed his peripherals, given this and his position on the aging curve regression should be expected. If he regresses at all the Royals rotation doesn't improve because of this deal.

Ultimately it isn't a horrible deal, but it isn't suave either. It is a deal that makes me feel uneasy. I hope that Chen continues to find the fountain of youth and can continue to defy the numbers and post quality seasons. If he does it is hard to argue with bring back the reigning Royals pitcher of the year for just $9 million guaranteed.

Update: What we Need to See

At the All Star break I made a list of ten things that I would like to see in the second half of the season. Well we are about at the halfway point in between the break and the end of the season, so let's see how the Royals are stacking up with my goals.

1. A strong second half from Alex Gordon. In the first half Gordon posted a .299/.367/.483 line. So far in the second half he has a .290/.373/.497. His OPS is up from .850 in the first half to .870 in the second half, while his OPS+ is at 138 in the second half compared to 139 in the first half. In the end he has done plenty to warrant this goal receiving a CHECK for the time being.

2. Billy Butler finding his power stroke. Butler has 9 homers, 10 doubles and a slugging percentage of .541 in 37 games. CHECK

3. An efficient Danny Duffy Duffy is averaging just over 5 innings per start in the second half, which is right in line with his first half numbers. With Duffy reaching his season's innings limit soon I can't imagine this goal doing anything but remaining UNFULFILLED.

4. Eric Hosmer developing into a Superstar. Specifically I asked for Hosmer to post a line of at least .300/.350/.450 for the second half of the season. Instead his average has improved by two points from .268 to .270, while his on base percentage has jumped from .317 to .327. Not to mention his slugging percentage has actually dropped from .431 to .390. Definitely UNFULFILLED.

5. A good luck Felipe Paulino In the second half Paulino's K to walk has dropped from 3.75 to just 1.74. Due to his increase in walks his era has taken a hit. Whether or not he is having good luck or not this isn't what we wanted to see. UNFULFILLED.

6. Mike Moustakas driving the ball with power. Despite having a hot few days to finish the Boston series (just over twenty-four hours after I tweeted that I felt Mous might get things going soon based off of his recent swings) he still hasn't shown nearly enough for a check. UNFULFILLED

7. Luke Hochevar has to be better. A 3.55 era with a k to walk jumping to 2.40 qualifies here. CHECK

8. Alcides Escobar building off of his offensive outburst. He hasn't really built off his outburst, but he has been better than his wretched start. But a .250/.271/.339 line is hardly what I had in mind. UNFULFILLED.

9. Continued dominance from the bullpen. Aaron Crow has taken a step back. Greg Holland has continued to dominate. Tim Collins has been a little better. Joakim Soria still can't put his struggles behind him. Louis Coleman, despite his performance a couple of days ago continues to impress. This one is hard, but due to Crow's struggles I am marking it UNFULFILLED.

10. Mike Montgomery righting the ship He has had several decent starts, but at no point has he dominated like he did right before the All Star break. UNFULFILLED.

Overall, the Royals are three for ten on my Goal List for the second half. Not exactly what I was hoping for when I made this list of goals, all of which I felt were attainable.

What We Need for 2012: Part 2

So we have accounted for 80% of the 2012 rotation and we know that the Royals are seeking Major League ready starting pitching in trades. But if the Major League ready starting pitching that they receive is in the Sean O'Sullivan/Vin Mazzaro mold the Royals would be better off hanging on to what they have or taking a couple of low level prospects with higher upside.

The Royals don't need to acquire more Major League ready starters that are really just quadruple-A guys. The players they target in trades need to truly be viable rotation options. Otherwise there is no purpose considering the Royals already have two back up spot starters in O’Sullivan and Mazzaro.

Right now the team that keeps popping up in Melky Cabrera rumors is the Philadelphia Phillies. So here are the pitching prospects the Royals should be bring up: Brody Colvin, Jarred Cosart, Trevor May, Jesse Biddle, Vance Worley, J.C. Ramirez, Jon Pettibone, and Austin Hyatt.

Now the Phillies would likely not be willing to part with the first names on this list (Colvin, Cosart, May, and Biddle). These are all top ten prospects in their system, but also they don't exactly fit the bill of Major League ready as most are just in High-A. Pettibone is also just in High-A so I can't imagine him being the centerpiece that the Royals would prefer (I think he would be a great second piece though).

So this leaves Worley, Ramirez, and Hyatt. Let's start with Worley. MLB Trade Rumors has reported that the Phillies are dangling him as part of a package to lure Hunter Pence away from Houston, so we know the Phillies are willing to move him despite his 2.02 era in 62.1 innings pitched this season.

However, Worley seems to have outperformed his peripherals and his xFIP is nearly double his era (though it still is a very respectable 3.99 for a rookie). The other downside is that entering the season Baseball America said he just "profiled as a back of the rotation starter... with no plus pitch." Obviously the Phillies are trying to sell high and are hoping a team overvalues Worley's hot start in the National League.

This is not to say that I believe Worley to not be worthwhile, but I would hope that Royals scouts believe him to be more than a back end guy should they chose to acquire him in a deal. If he is a back end guy then that still makes him better than AAAA guys Sean and Vin, but it isn't exactly the upgrade we need for the 2012 rotation.

Ramirez is also near Major League ready and entering the season Baseball America said he had mid rotation potential. But also entering the season he had a never posted a K rate under 7. However, this season that number has dropped to 4.7. His era is down to 3.93 which is the best of any of his full seasons, but the K rate is a huge concern.

Finally we get to Austin Hyatt. Hyatt was drafted by the Braves in 2004, which automatically makes him appealing to the Dayton Moore regime. Hyatt has consistently been a bit old for his level to be a top prospect, but this season as a twenty-five year old in Double-A, he has a 10.1 K rate to a 3.0 walk rate. He is a guy that looks like a target, but as the only piece and I can't say that he would be enough to get the deal done.

If the Phillies are unwilling to deal Colvin, Cosart, May, or Biddle the Royals should insist upon Worley. If Worley isn't included the Royals should probably walk unless they can receive three prospects back. If Worley is included the Phillies should get by just offering one other prospect with decent upside. If this player happens to be Pettibone, Hyatt, or Ramirez then all the better.


So would you feel comfortable with a 2012 Royals rotation being Paulino, Duffy, Hochevar, Crow, and Worley? There is definitely some upside there that the 2011 version lacked. The rotation would also have AAAA spot starters Sean O'Sullivan and Vin Mazzaro and as much as I dog on them there is a tiny bit of value there. Not to mention Mike Montgomery.

Should Montgomery really turn it around in the second half as he started to do prior to Wednesday night’s 5 earned in 5 inning performance does he edge out Worley for the fifth spot? This of course would render the trade kind of pointless in the short term much like the DeJesus trade last fall. Or does a Montgomery rise mean the Royals finally cut ties with Hochevar should he nose dive in the second half?

What about free agency? The Royals have dollars to spend and while the market isn't exactly heavy with starter options it isn't totally bare either.

Personally I think Mark Buehrle could be a good fit despite his point on the aging curve. Edwin Jackson could also be a really exciting target for Royals fans. C.J. Wilson would also be a great get for the Royals. Dare I say Yu Darvish may hit the market should the Royals really want to make a splash and go all in. Jeff Francis and Bruce Chen could be brought back to fill in as the missing piece.

I suppose what this entire post comes down to, is while the Royals rotation has been pretty terrible this season particularly while Chen was on the DL. However, when it comes to the Royals rotation being a strength for 2012 there are already two reasons to be optimistic.

If you are a believer in Crow you have three. If you think Hochevar can be at least a back end guy for a good rotation you have another. And if you believe Monty will rebound you could already have your five. No need to worry.

But if you believe in just one of the aforementioned possibilities the Royals could answer the other two questions with a trade and then a free agent signing. Quite frankly they could even afford two free agent signings should they think it is needed to contend. If you don't believe in Crow, Hochevar, or Montgomery being pieces next season then you better hope the Royals get back a Major League starter and are active on the free agent market this winter.

Personally I see the rotation as the biggest question mark for 2012. I see enough solutions internal to put out a rotation that could be good enough. But I don't want to take that chance. I'd like to see one pitcher come in via trade and one via free agency (the latter being more critical, considering he would likely be expected to be front end).

Should the Royals be aggressive in acquiring pitching over the course of the next seven months, the rotation could be a real asset entering 2012. I know this sounds strange now when it is one of the worst in baseball, but there are pieces already in place and there are avenues in which the Royals can fill the gap.

It isn’t as if the Royals have to fill the entire glass. Truthfully the glass is already half full with water pouring in. Just as it always is on Royal Revival.

What We Need to See

The second half of the season begins tonight, let's take a look at things we want to see in order to have confidence in this team having a shot at contention in 2012.

1. A strong second half from Alex Gordon. Obviously Gordon's first half has been the brightest spot for the 2011 Royals to date. For Royals fans and bloggers like myself who have defended Gordon and blamed his late blooming on injuries and bad luck, this season has come as a huge relief. But so far we have played just over half of the games on the 2011 slate. Gordon has come a long way, but a collapse in the second half could cause a similar collapse in fan's dreams for 2012.

2. Billy Butler finding his power stroke. Despite Butler walks being virtually unparralled by any other Royal in the last two decades, posting an on base percentage near .400. Butler has been a big disappointment for Royals fans in 2011. Whether or not this is fair is another discussion, but I think we can all agree that if Butler could start slugging the ball like he did in 2009, or even just like he did in 2010, we would be much more confident in his ability to be a middle of the order hitter.

3. An efficient Danny Duffy could go a long way. I'm not asking for Duffy to become a dominant pitcher in the second half (though if he did it would definitely go a long way), but if he can just be more efficient in controlling the strike zone and his pitch counts. This would allow him to go deeper in the games, reducing the strain on the bullpen and allow him to pound the strike zone even more with his great stuff.

4. Eric Hosmer developing into a Superstar. It may be unfair to ask so much of Hosmer, but in my opinion he warrants it. It takes times for hitters to develope and normally they don't fully hit their stride until year two or three. But I truly believe that Hosmer is going to be ahead of the curve. If Hosmer can continue to improve his numbers in the second half, maybe just post around a .300/.350/.450 line in the second half then Royals fans are going to be really excited about the first base position when they look toward 2012.

5. A good luck Felipe Paulino or really even just a not unlucky Felipe Paulino. Throughout his career Paulino has consistently posted head scratching era numbers considering the strength of his peripherals. He has knockout stuff and a dynamite fastball. His body type suggests he can handle a big time workload, so if Paulino's luck pendulum can swing in the opposite direction or even hang straight down the Royals will have found one/fifth of their rotation through 2014 for nothing at all.

6. Mike Moustakas driving the ball with power. Mike Moustakas hasn't looked overwhelmed in his time in the Majors and he has put together solid at bats on a consistent basis. However, he hasn't been the player that those of us that have seen in the minors have come to love. He doesn't appear to be swinging as hard and his power has been virtually non existent. A strong second half from Moustakas could be just what Royals fans need to really buy into Mission 2012.

7. Luke Hochevar has to be better. Luke Hochevar is beginning to transition into Kyle Davies territory and if he can't put together a strong second half then I wouldn't have any problem with the Royals trading him in the offseason even though it would mean selling low.

8. Alcides Escobar building off of his offensive outburst. I'm not going to ask for Escobar to become a .300 hitter (though I think it is possible). But if he can get his average up into the high .260s by the end of the year, Royals fans will recognize the value that he brings with his glove and an average bat for the position.

9. Continued dominance from the bullpen. The bullpen has a huge bright spot for the 2011 Royals and the best news is that every single pitcher is under team control through at least 2014. If this unit can continue to find success and dare I say even improve, it could be a tremendous asset for the Royals moving forward.

10. Mike Montgomery righting the ship and even finding time in Kansas City this summer could be huge for Royals fans expectations for 2012. The glaring weakness of this team is the rotation. The team needs a frontline starter. Montgomery has that potential and if he can continue to dominate like he did in his last two starters Royals fans should really start to have a lot of confidence for 2012.

Poll Results: Next Royal to be Called Up

Royal Revival recently posed the question "Who will be the next Royal to make their American League debut this season?" Here were our results:

Lorenzo Cain- 47%
Johnny Giavotella- 47%
Mike Montgomery- 4%

David Lough and Clint Robinson didn't receive any votes.

An Illustration of the Royals Fan Mind

The Royals fell tonight 9-0 against the Colorado Rockies and have now lost 4 games in a row. But tonight is a perfect illustration for why Royals fans are truly excited for the future of this franchise.

It began with Mike Montgomery on his twenty-second birthday pitching an absolute gem. He went 6.2 shutout innings and recorded 7 strikeouts to just 3 walks. He gave up only two hits and both were singles.

After being skipped in his last start, Mike Montgomery quite simply reminded all of us to take a chill pill and relax. He cruised to his best start of the year and we were reminded of his ACE potential.

But the night had only begun. Just a couple hours after Montgomery exited the game the Royals got the International signing period kicked off with a bang with the signing of this year's top International prospect to a $3.05 million signing bonus.

The bonus falls just short of Miguel Angel Sano's international free agent hitter bonus of $3.15 and it figures to be the largest bonus handed out in this year's class.

It is said that Hernandez's bat isn't the most advanced out of Latin America, but he has a mature body that fits the mold of a Major League right now. He is 6-4, 200 pounds and has tremendous bat speed with quick wrists.

Scouts project above average power with above average contact ability. He will find a spot as a corner outfielder and won't ever have the range to play center, but his arm will be more than strong enough to handle a corner.

Like Bubba Starling, Elier has mind blowing upside but will not come without a big amount of risk. Along with Starling (assuming he is signed) the Royals have now really built up that outfield depth throughout the organization. Not to mention they have just added another potential superstar to the organization.

Rumors are the Royals are only getting started and that they are also hot and heavy on shortstop prospect Aldaberto Mondesi, son of former big leaguer Raul Mondesi. Aldaberto is one of the younger players and won't be eligible to sign until he turns 16 on July 27. The shortstop prospect should stick at the position and the rumor is the Royals could offer seven figures.

Despite the current struggles of the big league team. The snowball of future excitement only continues to grow as we roll down the mountain toward contention.

Time to get Frustrated?

Here we go again… It is June 20th and once again our beloved Royals find themselves in the cellar of not just the Central but also the entire American League. Of course now is the time for fans to flip out and complain about what little progress this team has made.


Fans have been told wait for next year for too long, and they are beginning to grow tired of it. I don’t blame them. But for those that are suggesting that the Royals could have prevented this in the offseason, they need to stop and consider reason.

You can’t in one breath complain about Lorenzo Cain being blocked in center by a free agent stop gap, and then in the next breath complain that the Royals didn’t sign a player to man second base. You have to chose one way or another or else you are someone who is going to complain regardless.

Either the Royals should have signed the stopgaps and stick with them until the deadline, while they keep the seat warm for the prospects in Omaha. Or the Royals shouldn’t have messed with either. What isn’t fair is to complain about the Royals being in last place because they didn’t sign free agents and then go off and bash the Jeff Francis or Jose Guillen signing.

Obviously there were other guys available this offseason, but there was no reason at all for the Royals to drop boatloads of cash on an aging veteran. Thankfully it seems they have learned from that mistake when they signed Jose Guillen to a three year thirty-six million dollar deal.

People are glad that the Royals aren’t blocking their own prospects, but some are also complaining that they should have added veterans to some of the positions that aren’t playing up to snuff, particularly second base. The thing that has to be remembered is that literally every position on the roster besides catcher could have a prospect emerge as major league ready this season.

No matter where the Royals spent the money they ran the risk of blocking a prospect, unless that money was spent on one or even two year deals for catcher or the rotation. One year deals aren’t the issue here though, because they are so easy to flip at the deadline and they involve very little commitment by the team.

So if fans are wanting the Royals to add more serious players to make them contenders this year, it is just ludicrous to think that it could have been done without shelling out multi-year deals and huge bucks. I mean what pitcher could the Royals have added without doing that? Carl Pavano? I’ll take Jeff Francis and Bruce Chen.

A local radio host openly complained today about how the Royals went into the season with Chris Getz and Mike Aviles competing for the job at second base. First off it didn’t seem that ridiculous in the offseason that one of the two could be a solid contributor. Secondly, Giavotella is waiting in the wings and after tearing through the second half of last season and the Arizona Fall League was knocking at the door. Finally, I question anyone’s baseball understanding if they really believe that the Royals could have became contenders in 2011 if they would have just spent a few million for a second baseman.

The same show host, then went on to talk about the rotation holes and how the Royals should have spent big bucks this offseason in that area. But my question is who should they have signed? What pitcher on the market could the Royals have brought in that could have made them contenders in 2011 and would have fit into their long term plans?

Also, we shouldn’t forget that heading into the season the Royals had four of the top starting pitching prospects in baseball, all of which could have been ready for their debuts within a year’s time. When you add in Aaron Crow and a couple of the lower tier guys, then it is easy to see why the Royals proffered the stop gaps in the rotation for this year anyway.

What the Royals didn’t foresee was Montgomery and Dwyer both struggling immensely and John Lamb having to undergo season ending Tommy John surgery.

It is much wiser for the Royals to wait out this season and feel for what they have before making the moves on the market. Next offseason the Royals will have had another year of evaluating their prospects, some even at the highest level. Not to mention that the starting pitching class for this offseason is much more impressive than last.

The Royals will have money to spend and should they play it right in the offseason, could very easily position themselves as favorites for the AL Central entering 2012. It is frustrating that once again we find ourselves in last place. But sometimes one must take a small step back in order to take a giant leap forward.

What Should the Royals Do?

So the Kyle Davies situation brings about an interesting situation for the Royals and when Ned Yost elected to bring in Tuesday's starter Vin Mazzaro and he imploded it caused an even murkier situation.

It appears that the Royals now need two starters in their big league rotation. So let's look at the possibilities.

Aaron Crow: I don't think I am alone in hoping that the Royals elect to stretch Crow out. If the Royals do this it may take a couple of starts to get Crow's pitch count where it needs to be, but his upside could be the highest among the starter options.

Mike Montgomery: The factors that are preventing Monty from getting immediately promoted are that he got shelled in his last start in Colorado Springs and money. If Montgomery would have dominated in his last start I wouldn't have been shocked at all to see Monty given an opportunity in the big league pen. However, with his struggles with control and his implosion against the Sky Sox, it makes sense that the Royals would leave him in Omaha and make him for their hand.

Danny Duffy: Duffy had perhaps his worst start last time out. But his numbers are still strong enough to warrant a big league promotion. I believe that even if Duffy doesn't live up to the hype he would still represent an upgrade over almost every pitcher in our rotation. A factor working against Duffy though is the service time issue and Super 2.

Jeff Suppan: Suppan could be the option the Royals go with should they chose to pinch pennies. However, there is no reason to believe that he has earned his promotion. He entered tonight with an era around 5 and then proceeded to get shelled.

Nate Adcock: Adcock was viewed as a darkhorse rotation candidate entering the season. Adcock could be granted a few starts as the Royals wait for Monty and/or Duffy to prove themselves and delay their Super 2.

Kevin Pucetas/Luis Mendoza/Blake Johnson: All are on the 40-man roster so the Royals could use them as stop gaps until they believe one of the prospects are ready. If the Royals aren't comfortable with the previous options then it is safe to assume that they would write off Mazzaro's poor performance tonight to circumstance and allow him to continue work until the farm is ready.

Where can we Upgrade?

So with the Royals surprise start, I have began to think about what it means in terms of the prospects. What should the Royals do if they stay in contention? Stick with the Major Leaguers? Promote players that could help now? Trade them? Or not let the state of the Major League team affect the plan?

I don't want to get into that discussion right now, but I do want to think what positions the Royals could upgrade by promotions from within. So let's look at the weaknesses of the Major League roster.

1. Catcher

Unfortunately I see know potential solutions at the catcher position right now. No prospects are going to be ready midseason, although at some point Jason Kendall will return from injury. This would probably mean that Pena is the odd man out and the Royals would lose all offensive potential at the position.

2. First Base

Kila Ka'aihue at this point is not getting it done. Through the first fifteen games he's hitting .174/.304/.283 and with Hosmer tearing it up in Omaha an upgrade is readily available. I believe Ka'aihue will have until early June to get something going, but if he hasn't by then it will likely be Eric Hosmer's time to shine.

3. Second Base

Should Getz falter with the bat second base is another production that could be upgraded as the season progresses. This could occur in one of two ways. The most likely probably involves a Mike Moustakas promotion and Mike Aviles sliding over across the diamond. But the other solution involves the promotion of Johnny Giavotella. Giavotella's defense is much improved and after tearing up both the Texas League and the Arizona Fall League a season ago he is off to a hot start in Omaha.

4. Third Base

In case you haven't heard the Royals have the top third base prospect in all of baseball. He is in triple-A now and a year ago he led minor league baseball in home runs. He also recorded more extra base hits than strikeouts. Mike Moustakas could provide a big boost to the middle of the order should he hit the ground running on his promotion.

5. Centerfield

Right now most fans and Kansas City media treat Melky Cabrerra like he is off to a good start. Personally I'm not a fan of sub .300 on base percentages. Most fans would suggest Lorenzo Cain as an upgrade but I'd also like to throw David Lough's name into the mix. He has a great blend of tools and if he can outproduce Cain over the next couple of months then I'd like to see him granted the first opportunity.

6. Rotation

Here is where the Royals could receive the biggest boost this season. Right now the Royals have three rotation spots that have produced consistently but they could look to bolster the rotation by promoting Mike Montgomery and/or Danny Duffy. If Davies can get it going and be a servicable back end guy then the Royals could add one of the aforementioned prospects and have a decent unit. If they added both and they both perform as they could the rotation could have two of the top young starters in baseball.

The Royals have shocked baseball with their quick start much like they did in 2003. However, unlike that season the Royals could have enough bullets in the minor league gun to reload for a Central title run. Hopefully they can continue to overachieve long enough to find out.

Prospect Countdown: 2-1

2. Mike Montgomery LHP

In 2008 the Royals selected a lanky California lefty with their supplemental first round pick. His name was Mike Montgomery and one of the first things that Royals fans learned about him was that he was kicked off his high school basketball team due to receiving to many technical fouls. Nonetheless baseball people seemed to brag about this fact like it was a badge of honor and it wasn't hard to picture Royals scouts watching Montgomery in the summer sun with proud eyes while leaning to the guy sitting next to them and stating "I just love his fierce personality and how he is a fiery competitor."

Montgomery also has some of the top stuff on the Minor League circuit. His fastball is a plus plus pitch that sits in the mid 90s with plenty of life. His curveball comes in somewhere in the 70s and is another dominating pitch. He also possesses a changeup that is average and should continue to be an even better offering down the road. Montgomery has top of the rotation stuff with a frame that suggests it should only improve.

Montgomery has received raved reviews throughout his time in the organization and there was even a point this season when Baseball America questioned if he was the top pitching prospect in baseball after a dominating start in Wilmington. With his success at the high A level Montgomery rather quickly earned a bump up to the Texas League. However, once there he suffered some fore arm tightness and so the Royals shut him down for an extended period. Montgomery has top notch mechanics, with a fluid motion so injuries won't be a concern moving forward.

Because of his time missed during the regular season, the Royals were able to give him some time in both the Pan-Am games and the prestigious Arizona Fall League. Montgomery's era left something to be desired in the AFL, but on the night he pitched in the Rising Stars game the announcers couldn't help but salivate over his Cliff Lee potential.

Heading into Spring Training most viewed Duffy as the most ready starter out of the 4 lefties. But after Montgomery's Spring performance most are now raving how near ready he is. Montgomery is not yet on the 40-man roster but we should see him in Kansas City by season's end.

Given that a hitter's production is typically maximized by controlling him through his age 23-29 year old season, it makes sense for the Royals to be extremely conservative in their development and promotion of Moustakas, Hosmer, Colon, Eibner, and Myers. But with pitchers this peak value usually occurs between ages 21-27 or 22-28, basically from whenever the pitcher reaches the Majors until his reaches free agency.

While the Royals are going to want to choose the most effective years possible for their control, it is also important that their players service time matchup as best as possible. Given the current situation this service shouldn't be off by more than one, maybe two seasons. Also, when you consider the amount of pitching depth that the Royals have it would seem to make sense to get the pitchers up now and then take your time even more with the guys behind them. By doing so you could ideally lengthen the value of the current crop of prospects in the system.

1. Eric Hosmer 1B

There is a perception amongst many baseball followers that top prospects will hit the ground running upon their promotion to the Major Leagues. However, the vast majority of the time this is not the case. I believe that Eric Hosmer will be one of the few prospects that create an immediate impact at the Major League level.

Evan Longoria was a similar bat when he burned the American League to a tune of a .272/.343/.531 slash in his rookie campaign, while leading the Rays to their first division title in franchise history. Buster Posey was an impact bat a year ago when he posted a .305/.357/.505 line when he began the final piece for the Giants quest at a World Series title.

I believe that Hosmer's bat will immediately translate and we can only hope that this has the same impact on the Royals as Longoria's and Posey's had for the Rays and Giants. Hosmer is probably Major League ready now, however with Butler and Ka'aihue already entrenched on the Major League roster the Royals will be able to find what they have in those two players, while leaving Hosmer in the minors long enough to delay his service time.

At this point I can envision a situation in which the Royals call up Moustakas in mid June, thus delaying his service clock for a year while also preventing him from obtaining Super 2 status. But with Hosmer the Royals would be wise to not break him into the Majors until mid April 2012. By doing this they can have him under team control thru 2018. By staggering Moustakas's and Hosmer's service time the Royals won't face a situation where they lose both of their middle order bats in the same season should they not lock them up long term.

If Ka'aihue and Butler perform as many hope and some expect them to, it shouldn't be too difficult for the aforementioned scenario to play out. However, if Ka'aihue struggles to translate his minor league and spring training success to the Major League level then we will likely see Hosmer in Kansas City midseason.

I would also like to see the Royals at least test the idea of having Hosmer move to the outfield. It has long been believed that Hosmer could handle the move, his fastball was clocked in the mid 90s in high school and is much more athletic than one would at first believe. He wouldn't ever win any gold gloves but he would probably have at least serviceable range and an arm that could be a valuable asset in right or left.

If Hosmer proved capable of playing left field then the Royals could potentially feature Butler, Ka'aihue, and Hosmer in the lineup at the same time. The Royals could then have a longer period of evaluation for both Kila and Butler and by the time Hosmer began to slow as an outfield defender, the Royals could shift Hosmer back over to first where he should be an above average defender.

It will be an interesting situation to keep an eye on as the summer unfolds and hope that the Royals aren't conservative with Hosmer during his time in Omaha. Put it this way, the guy can already hit, if he can handle a move to the outfield it would only push the Royals timetable to contention along and would only increase Hosmer's versatility and value.

Hosmer's bat will carry him to the Major Leagues. Once he is there he should be a superstar caliber hitter consistently hitting over .300 while competing for batting titles. It also isn't hard to project Hosmer and Moustakas combining to hit 70+ homers annually. It should be a fearsome duo in the heart of the Royals order for years to come.

Someday Hosmer, Moustakas and company will be the face of the Royals franchise, but for now we just aren't sure when that day will come.