Prospect Countdown: #2 Yordano Ventura

2. Yordano Ventura Right Handed Pitcher

zimbio.com

Age: 22
Position: RHP
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 180
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed as non-drafted FA in 2008       From: Samana, Dominican Republic

2013 Rank: 3

2012 Rank: 10

2011 Rank: 17

Landon Adams (3): Last season I had the opportunity to watch Yordano Ventura pitch first hand on several occasions. Each time he pitched, he was more impressive than the start before. With three above average pitches, Ventura definitely has the stuff to enable him to be a front end of the rotation starter. At this point it is more a question of how long he will hold up given his stature. 

Ventura, who threw 155 innings over 28 starts in 2013, has already made comments about expecting to throw 200 innings in 2014. Given that he averaged approximately 5.5 innings per start in 2013, this would mean that not only would he need to make 33 starts this season, but that he would also need to go on average about 6 innings per outing. This fails to account for the potential of postseason games, so in my opinion it would be wise of the Royals to not push Ventura to get deep into games. 

With James Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Jason Vargas and an excellent bullpen, the focus shouldn't be on Ventura reaching his 20% share of the 1000 starter inning goal, instead the focus should be on keeping him fresh and producing quality innings throughout the entire season. If for instance Ventura simply averages 5.5 innings per start again this season, that would put him at 182 innings over 33 starts. This is a number that I'd be far more comfortable with than 200. 

You've heard enough from me on Ventura, but I want to leave you with this comment on the righty from Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus:

"In two brief innings of work, he sat 98-100 and touched 101 on at least one gun. That’s good, right? Snapped a few good breaking balls that looked like future 7 pitches when he released out front; lost a few that he seemed to cast from a deeper release; flashed a few changeups with late action. He’s going to be a monster if he can stay healthy and log innings/experience. I’m a huge believer." —Jason Parks (Article here.)

Paden Bennett (1): It's hard to consider Yordano Ventura a prospect anymore after he earned a rotation spot this spring with a dominant performance.  Ventura pitched 20.1 innings this spring while only giving up 4 earned runs, good for a 1.77 ERA.  Ventura also showed great control with 18 K's to just 4 BB's.  

Ventura features an unbelievable heater than can reach 101-102, a good curveball that froze hitters this spring and an improving changeup.  Small in stature with an extremely live arm, Ventura has drawn some comparisons to a young Pedro Martinez.  Out of all the games I go to this season in Kansas City, most of the games I will try and target when Yordano Ventura is pitching.  This kid is fun to watch, and you don't see live arms like this come around very often especially as a starting pitcher.  

I look for Yordano to take off running, and impress a bunch of people early.  Then I expect him to have a rough patch just like most young pitchers do and rebound from that and adjust.  Royals fans need to be ready to watch Yordano Ventura "throw fire" this season!

Joe Cox (4):  Yordano Ventura is easily the prospect most likely to make an impact at the Major League level in 2014.  We know the story on Ventura, the 22 year old righty who can light up the radar despite his small stature.  In his 3 starts in the Majors Last year his fastball averaged 97.5 MPH, which would easily be the best in the league over the course of a season.  Last season he averaged less than one home run every two starts between AA and AAA; while also easily striking out more than a batter per inning.  

The big question mark on Ventura is control, as his walks went from a mediocre 3.12 BB/9 in AA to a more troubling 3.86 BB/9 in AAA.  His elite velocity coupled with solid 2013 results is what has so many Royals fans so interested in what he can provide this year. ZiPS projection system has Ventura pitching 137 innings with a 4.20 ERA, which I think is a realistic expectation fans would be happy with.  The system was fairly conservative on walks and strike outs so there is room for Ventura to improve on those projections.

Over the course of his prospect career, the big question on Ventura has been whether he projects as a starter or reliever, but it appears Ventura has an opportunity to lock up the fifth spot in the rotation for the Royals.  If he doesn’t win that spot, Ventura will start the year in the Major League bullpen or as a starter in waiting in AAA.  Either way, I would project that Ventura ends the year in the Royals Rotation regardless of where he starts the year.  I do not expect Ventura to immediately become the Ace of the staff, but should be a positive piece to the rotation.

Dan Ware (2):  In the midst of a playoff birth quest, sitting just 2.5 games back in the Wild Card, Danny Duffy still wasn't 100%, suffering from inflammation in his pitching elbow.  The Royals decided to go the precautionary route and sit Duffy for a second straight start.  Yordano "Ace" Ventura, who was supposed to start for Omaha in the Triple-A championship game against the Durham Bulls, got the call to The K to make his MLB debut against the Cleveland Indians. 

The game was nothing short of an exciting one, as the 22 year old, in the first 5 innings gave up no runs and just 2 hits, while at one point throwing the fastest pitch of any Major League pitcher in 2013 (103 mph).  In the 6th, he gave up 3 hits, 1 resulting in a run.  With 2 outs recorded, Yost went to the pen.  The K arose for a standing ovation and the rookie tipped his cap.  Ventura made 2 more starts last season, going 0-1 with a 3.52 ERA in 15.1 innings, collecting 11 strikeouts and 6 walks.  Before his promotion, he threw 134.2 innings in the minors, 57.2 for NW Arkansas and 77 for Omaha.

2014 was up in the air for Ventura, until his 5th start during the Spring, where Yordano dominated a Texas lineup that comprised all of their starters, throwing 6 innings, allowing only 4 hits while striking out 6 batters.  The next day, the Royals made a decision to add Ventura to the rotation, which was rightfully earned.  He will sit in the 3rd spot behind Opening Day starter James Shields and newcomer Jason Vargas.

We expect him to be one of our 12 pitchers when we break camp unless something unforeseen happens. - Dayton Moore, February 8th 2014

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2014/02/08/4808826/if-all-else-is-equal-among-contenders.html#storylink=cpy

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2014/02/08/4808826/if-all-else-is-equal-among-contenders.html#storylink=cpy

Dayton wasn't joking!

Nicholas Ian Allen (--): There is not much to add to the discussion at this point. Ventura has excelled this spring and seemingly put most minds at ease about his role in the big league rotation this season: fans, bloggers, media members and the brass are all pretty much in agreement. Expect him to be a big part of the club's success this season and he should be the early favorite for American League Rookie of the Year.

Oh one more thing: He reminds me a lot of Cardinals rookie Carlos Martinez. I really like Carlos Martinez.

Total Points: 114

The Uber Top 100

On Wednesday, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pro Blog did us all the favor of compiling the various prospect rankings into one list. It's a good opportunity to gauge a broader view than looking at individual lists. You can look at the whole list here. Here's where the Royals broke in:

• 22 - Kyle Zimmer
• 29 - Yordano Ventura
• 32 - Raul Adalberto Mondesi
• 83 - Miguel Almonte
• 105 - Jorge Bonifacio
• 115 - Sean Manaea
• 128 - Hunter Dozier

Overall, a pretty good job by the Royals to net seven players on the list. Just for fun let's take a quick look at how the rest of the American League Central fared:

Chicago White Sox:

• 66 - Erik Johnson
• 75 - Matt Davidson
• 122 - Marcus Semein
• 131 - Tim Anderson

Cleveland Indians:

• 9 - Francisco Lindor
• 40 - Clint Frazier
• 102 - Trevor Bauer

Detroit Tigers:

• 27 - Nick Castellanos
• 116 - Devon Travis
• 129 - Robbie Ray

Minnesota Twins:

• 1 - Byron Buxton
• 7 - Miguel Sano
• 35 - Alex Meyer
• 49 - Kohl Stewart
• 71 - Eddie Rosario
• 103 - J.O. Berrios
• 104 - Josmil Pinto

Obviously, the Twins system is very strong right now, especially with two in the top 10. It's also good to see that outside of Castellanos, there isn't much in the pipeline for Detroit. Also of note, is Jake Odorizzi slotting in at 78. 

The Royals system isn't what it was a couple of years ago, but when you consider the youth of the Major League roster and the quantity of guys included in this list, it's good to know that the organization has done a sound job in keeping the pipeline stocked with high upside talent. 

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

Looking to Future Rotations

With each passing day that Ervin Santana remains a free agent, more and more Royals fans' confidence grows that Santana could return to Kansas City. While I hate to throw water on to these dreams, I am afraid that I have to.

Santana will not be coming back to Kansas City.

The Royals are too deep into their off-season plans and it is woefully apparent that whether or not it is true, the team is operating with the opinion that $90 million is the break even point. The rotation has four out of five spots left and multiple candidates for the fifth spot that are deserving of a chance with the big league club.

Here's a quick snapshot of the next few years rotations:

2014

1. James Shields
2. Jeremy Guthrie
3. Jason Vargas
4. Bruce Chen
5. TBD

2015

1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. Jason Vargas
3. TBD
4. TBD
5. TBD

2016 & 2017

1. Jason Vargas
2. TBD
3. TBD
4. TBD
5. TBD

Obviously, it is the Royals hope that they can fill their rotation with homegrown talent starting next season. Just a month or so ago, J.J. Picollo even stated that he expects Danny Duffy, Yordano Ventura, Kyle Zimmer, and Sean Manaea all to be ready to hold down big league spots. Also, on the horizon is Jason Adam and Miguel Almonte. 

It does appear that the Royals will have the arms to fill out a couple of spots in their big league rotation, but are they going to be able to fill three spots as soon as next season? 

What if this season Duffy totally loses control and Kyle Zimmer blows out his elbow? Where will that leave the Royals next off-season as they attempt to fill out their rotation. Would it be more economical to sign Santana now when conceivably his price has been diminished or would it be better to jump the market and overpay next off-season for another Vargas/Guthrie type. 

If the Royals were to sign Santana, he could slot into the rotation instead of Bruce Chen for 2014. With the addition of Santana, Chen could slide into a swing man role and the Royals could still have a competition for the final rotation spot. Next season, they'd ideally have established one or two of the Duffy, Ventura, Zimmer bunch and would be able to fill out a rotation with some confidence. 

Given the Royals history of starting pitcher development, it seems incredibly ballsy to expect the the current crop of prospects can fill three spots in next years rotation. This indicates to me that next off-season the Royals will once again have to dip their toes into the starting pitching market of free agency. So I leave you with a final question: would it be better to go over the salary threshold this year to get Santana at below market value, or would it be better to wait and overpay next off-season? 

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

Danny Duffy's 2014 Role

Over the past couple of seasons that aren't many Royals that have tantalized Royals fans as much as former third round pick Danny Duffy. Heading into 2014, there are few in the organization that could prove to be a bigger difference maker than the lefty. According to the Kansas City Star's Pete McCullough, the Royals are finally ready to pull the reins off their young hurler. Here's what Duffy had to say on the subject:

"I feel like I'm definitely ready. Judging by my bullpen sessions out here. I've really been doing well."

The Royals went safe in their off-season acquisitions from the rotation and it is mainly because of the upside that they see in Duffy, Yordano Ventura, and Kyle Zimmer. Thus far in Duffy's career he has been worth nearly 2 fWAR, and holds a 4.75 ERA, these numbers don't exactly breed a ton of confidence, especially when you notice the 4.75 walk rate. But if you've watched Danny Duffy over the past couple of seasons, the potential is undeniable.

What Duffy needs to do is to trust his outstanding stuff. Even more than that Duffy needs to trust his defense. As far as the stuff is concerned, Duffy is fantastic. He can dial up the fastball to the mid 90s and he has shown the ability to snap off a nasty curveball. We also know that the Royals defense is fantastic. Based off these things, one would think that a breakout is right around the corner.

Duffy tends to be way to fine with his pitches. He'll often jump ahead in the count only to forfeit the advantage after he nibbles on the outside corner. Strikeouts are definitely a good thing, but Duffy needs to accept that he can't strike out every hitter. If Duffy can go on to the attack even after getting ahead in the count, he'll be much better off. If he can do this he can go deeper into games and eat more innings.

After the Bruce Chen signing, it appears that there is only one rotation spot up for grabs. There has even been some discussion that if Duffy loses out on the battle for this last spot that he could surface in the Royals bullpen. As I have said in regards to Yordano Ventura, I hope that this isn't the case.

While Duffy could learn some aggressiveness in the bullpen, I'd rather Duffy continue to log innings as a starter in Omaha. More importantly than learning how to air it out, Duffy needs to learn how to go deep into games. This is a characteristic that he won't learn in the bullpen.

Dayton Moore says that he envisions Duffy as a part of the 2015 rotation. Duffy, who is under team control for four more seasons has much more value in this capacity. It would be an enormous shame for a starter so close to contributing at the Major League level to be moved to the bullpen, unless it is with eyes toward moving him back to the rotation in the future.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

Wildcard Wade Wants to Start

After the signing of Bruce Chen, I don't think I was alone in assuming that the final rotation spot would come down to either Yordano Ventura or Danny Duffy. Of course, I knew that a few other names would be thrown out as candidates: Brad Penny, Chris Dwyer, Luke Hochevar, Wade Davis, and Kyle Zimmer. Despite most of us believing that Hochevar and Davis will figure in as bullpen components, both are making buzz about their focus on reclaiming roles in the rotation. On Friday, Fox Sports writer Jeffrey Flanagan brought us some quotes from Davis on the subject. 

"I'm definitely going in to start. I hope I get the opportunity to pitch and help this team win a lot of ballgames. I'm ready, probably more so than I ever have been."

When Wade Davis was acquired in conjunction with James Shields last winter, many pointed to Davis as the wild card of the deal. Defendants of the trade also were quick to cite Wildcard Wade's contract status when the Shields portion of the deal was criticized due to his two years of control. Unlike Shields, Davis came with two guaranteed seasons, plus three team options for 2015-17.

The problem with these options is that they really are only economically viable if Davis is logging his innings as a member of the team's rotation. It is likely for this reason that the Royals were so patient with Davis as a starter in 2013. Despite posting a 5.67 ERA as a starter, Davis was somehow able to hold down a rotation spot for 24 starts, and was not moved to relief duty until September.

There is a very slight possibility that Davis wasn't as bad in 2013, as his numbers would indicate. Afterall, his FIP was just 4.18, which compares quite favorably to his 5.32 ERA. This discrepancy largely stems from his .361 BABIP against. However, when plugging in his batted ball frequencies to an expected BABIP calculator, you'll find that the number isn't that much different than the BABIP that was actually posted against him. This is mainly due to opponents posting a 27.5% LD% against the former Rays farmhand. Fangraphs' tERA, which estimates ERA with batted ball data, says that his ERA should have been 5.42.

According to Troy Renck, beat writer for the Denver Post, the Royals and Rockies were discussing a deal that would have sent Wade Davis to Colorado in exchange for outfielder Dexter Fowler. If this is true then the Royals probably were very open to moving Davis throughout the offseason. Unfortunately, they were unable to find a match for a trade. Since it is hard to imagine the Royals contending and going through the Wade Davis starter experience again, it is unlikely that reliever Wade Davis will justify a $7 million option for 2015.

When the Royals acquired Wildcard Wade they likely hoped that they were acquiring a solid mid rotation starter for the next five seasons. If Davis could have been this it would have greatly helped to justify the Wil Myers trade. Regrettably, the former 3rd round pick has failed to transition into a useful rotation piece and as a result a year from now, the Royals will likely have only one compensation draft pick to show for their blue chip prospect.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams

Two Royals on AL Prospect Dream Team

Last week, Bernie Pleskoff of MLB.com made his selections for his 2014 AL Prospect Dream Team. Here is what he had to say regarding the two Royals to make the squad. You can view the rest of the team here.

"Pitcher: Kyle Zimmer, Royals 22 - Zimmer could easily become the best of the lot with the movement on his pitches. If he throws strikes consistently, his ceiling is top-of-the-rotation, All-Star quality starter."

 "Pitcher: Yordano Ventura, Royals, 22 - Ventura has one of the power arms that just won't quit. If he can find the plate with consistency, he can win plenty of games. I'd like to see Ventura bring the 97 mph down a bit to get more movement."

Even when the Royals boasted the best farm systems in the history of farm systems, there wasn't a pair of pitching prospects that matched the talent and proximity to the Majors of Ventura and Zimmer. As far as their impacts on the 2014 team, Zimmer will probably return to Northwest Arkansas with Ventura returning to Omaha. With the signing of Bruce Chen, if things go well I expect Ventura to replace Chen in the rotation in mid-May/early June.

Of course, I shouldn't totally discount Dayton Moore's comments in today's presser when he revealed that with a strong spring he wouldn't be against Ventura opening the season in the bullpen. Let me state this as clearly as possible. Ventura should not begin the season in the bullpen.

The Royals have plenty of bullpen arms. The reason Ventura offers the team so much value is because of his potential as a front end starter. A move to the pen and he just is another arm in the back of the bullpen (albeit a potentially dominant one). If Ventura doesn't earn a rotation spot, he should be sent back to Omaha to continue to log innings as a starter. Thus far, Ventura has only received 164 innings in the high minors, a little more seasoning wouldn't be the worst thing for the Dominican.

Kansas City has two dynamite starting pitching prospects in the upper minors. They have two more that will likely open the season in Wilmington (Miguel Almonte and Sean Manaea). Hopefully, for the Royals this crop of pitchers fares better than the artist formerly known as the "Four Lefties of the Apocalypse."

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22nd Best Rotation in Baseball

On Wednesday, Matthew Pouliot of NBC Sports' Hardball talk took a moment to rank the rotations across Major League Baseball. Somewhat disappointingly, Pouliot concluded that the Royals ranked 22nd in the league and according to his Rotoworld Player Projections would compile a 3.94 ERA over 940 innings pitched. You can view the full list here.

For reference, last season the Royals rotation ranked 12th in baseball with a 3.87 ERA, as well as 4th with 986.2 innings pitched. The issue for the Royals is that much of this rotation success stems from a defense that was one of, if not the best in all of baseball. When we look at Fielding Independent Pitching, the Royals rotation ranking falls to 21st at 4.12 in 2013.

If you give NBC Sports the benefit of the doubt that writer Pouliot has taken into consideration the Royals defensive prowess and is wise enough to not include that in the Royals ranking, then a ranking in the low 20s shouldn't come as a huge surprise to Royals fans. Especially, when you remember that the average sports fan is going to immediately knock the staff for the trade out of Ervin Santana for Jason Vargas.

Ultimately, the success of this rotation will depend on what the Royals get from Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura in 2014. If those two starters can be what many in the organization expect them to be, then this rotation will have no problem posting a better FIP than the one posted by the 2013 version. If those to are duds in 2014, then the Royals will be thankful to have the consistency of Jason Vargas and Bruce Chen on their staff.

At this point, the Royals have six guys who would be deserving of rotation spots to open the season. There is the dependable front end guy (James Shields), the dependable innings eaters (Vargas, Chen, and Jeremy Guthrie), and there are the high upside wild cards (Duffy and Ventura). It is a good blend of options and with Zimmer also on the way, there is even more upside that could reach Kansas City by season's end.

I definitely wouldn't be against a Royals move for another starter (A.J. Burnett or Ervin Santana), and I definitely think the rotation upgrades could have been handled in different measures in the offseason. However, if last year's rotation was strong enough to get the Royals to 86 wins, I see no reason why this rotation couldn't hold course. Obviously, for the Royals to get to the next level, the real key will be improvement on the offensive side of things.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams

Royals Trade Lough for Valencia

In another sneaky SABR move by the Royals front office David Lough was sent to the Inner Harbor for right hand hitting, OBP deprived Danny Valencia. It didn't take the Royals Twitterverse more than an infield pop up's worth of time to realize that Valencia hits left handers at a decent clip and would be an ideal platoon partner to incumbent third baseman, Mike Moustakas.

But then...

#Royals' Dayton Moore also tells me Valencia won't platoon with Moose: “But that’s not to say Ned won’t match up in certain situations.”
— Jeffrey Flanagan (@jflanagankc) December 18, 2013

So the plot thickens.

Actually, it was extremely predictable that Dayton Moore would hesitate to label this as a platoon. There are too many factors at play. The most important of which being that Kansas City doesn't want to officially label Mike Moustakas as a platoon player. Ideally, Moustakas hits in 2014 like the prospect experts all expected him to. Yes, he has been terribly disappointing thus far in his Major League career, but there are still well respected people in the industry that expect much bigger things from Moustakas moving forward.

Nonetheless, if the Royals find themselves in a platoon situation in 2014, they could have done much worse than Danny Valencia. In 428 career plate appearances versus left handed pitching, the former 19th round selection has hit .329/.367/.513 against southpaws. Last year alone he torched lefties to the tune of a .371/.392/.639 line.

Individually, here are The Spitter's projections for Mike Moustakas and Danny Valencia for 2014 (adjusted to 600 plate appearances):

• Mike Moustakas: .237/.290/.379 with 15 home runs, a .290 wOBA and a 1.98 WAR.
• Danny Valencia: .261/.290/.445 with 20 home runs, a .312 wOBA and a 1.29 WAR.

Basically, you have a couple of guys with poor contact and even poorer walk rates. Moustakas comes in with a higher WAR thanks to an above average glove, while Valencia is below average at third. Here is what we get if we run it as a platoon between the two players with a 30/70 split in favor of Moustakas.

• .265/.307/.437 with 19 home runs, a .319 wOBA and a 2.90 WAR. 

What we see here is that if the Royals did go with a true platoon from the offset, Danny Valencia would compliment Moustakas extremely well and raise the overall production from third base by about a win.Of course, if Mosutakas does prove that he is more than a platoon player, your problem is solved anyway. If implemented correctly, this is the kind of sly move that an organization can make to grab an extra win. 

Now as for where Valencia fits into the roster puzzle. Valencia is out of options (reason why he appears to be more than a Brandon Wood, worst case scenario back up plan to Moustakas). The way the current bench sets up is backup catcher, Emilio Bonifacio, Justin Maxwell, and Jarrod Dyson. This would give the Royals 13 hitters on their active roster. 

The wise thing for the Royals to do would be to carry 14 hitters. The rotation is full of innings eaters (except for the 5 spot which figures to be occupied by either Yordano Ventura or Danny Duffy). There are also enough arms in Omaha to enable a sort of shuttle system that can stretch the bullpen deeper than a typical 6 man pen can. Dayton Moore has displayed the creativity to successfully utilize a psuedo shuttle system in the past and I believe he can do it again.

By carrying 11 pitchers instead of 14, it would enable the Royals to truly platoon Moustakas and Valencia, while also keeping a balanced bench with a nice array of skills. Maxwell could pinch hit against lefties. Dyson and Bonifacio can both run. Maxwell can hit for power. Dyson can get on base. Between Dyson and Bonifacio you have every spot on the diamond covered in case of injury or the need of a defensive replacement. 

I'm disappointed with the Royals decision to DFA George Kottaras. I still think it could wind up costing them a win. However, I think they have positioned themselves well to have a very nice bench in 2014. What is more likely to happen is that Kansas City will opt to go with the 12 man staff that they have had through a majority of the Dayton Moore era. If I had to guess, this would be it for Jarrod Dyson. 

As for David Lough, he will always be a personal favorite of mine. He is an extremely personable individual and always has a smile on his face. His rookie season was fantastic to watch and he played an enormous role in the Royals second half resurgence. I wish him all the best and I'm looking forward to watching him in an Oriole jersey next season. #YoLough.

Converting fWAR to Wins; How can KC get to 45.5?

In 2013, the ranked 8th in all of baseball in total team fWAR. The only teams to rank ahead of Kansas City were the Red Sox, Tigers, Rays, Rangers, Athletics, Dodgers, and the Braves. Now we know that the Royals under performed in terms of their Pythagorean win expectancy, which called for them to finish the year 87-75, but I was curious about what the predictive value in fWAR was.

By taking the last three years worth of team fWAR totals, wins, and expected wins I was able to determine that fWAR has a predictive value of approximately .876 for a team's total win count. This number is somewhat lower than the predictive value of expected wins, which over the last three years was .946. Nonetheless, I had a linear formula created for converting Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement to wins. Here is what excel came up with: Wins = (fWAR*0.9069) + 50.772.

In 2013, it took 92 wins to reach baseball's postseason. Working backward, that would mean a team should need to accumulate roughly 45.5 fWAR to reach that threshold. A season ago, the Royals were able to net 42.4 fWAR. This would mean that from 2013 to 2014, Kansas City needs to bring in an additional 3.1 fWAR to close the gap.

Thus far this off-season and throughout 2013, the Royals have already bid farewell to George Kottaras (0.7 fWAR), Adam Moore (0.1), Miguel Tejada (0.4), Chris Getz (-0.1), Carlos Pena (-0.2), Elliot Johnson (-0.2), Jamey Carroll (-0.5), Jeff Francoeur (-0.9), Ervin Santana (3.0), Will Smith (0.5), Bruce Chen (1.4), and Luis Mendoza (0.4). Add this all together and you have 4.6 fWAR to replace just to hold even.

Fortunately, the Royals thus far haven't set on their hands this winter. They've already added Jason Vargas to the rotation (1.5) and Norichika Aoki to the outfield (1.7). In total the Royals are 4.5 fWAR away from that magic 45.5 fWAR mark and 92 wins according to that formula. Where can the Royals pick up these wins?

At this point, there are a few places left that the Royals could pick up a few fWAR:

1. Player Progression - the easiest way to pick up fWAR is for the current crop of players to simply play better than they did last year. Unfortunately, you can't expect an entire roster to progress. As often as players progress, they will regress which typically means the treading of water for a team. The good news for the Royals is that the vast majority of their roster is in a good spot on the aging curve, making progression more likely than regression.
2. Redistribution of IP and PA - Obviously, with players leaving there will be a redistribution of playing time. For example, Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura were worth 0.6 fWAR in 40 innings pitched last season. If they can keep that pace and throw 360 innings, this would create an additional 4.8 in fWAR. Of course, the same can go the other way. With Aoki in the fold David Lough and his 2.4 fWAR figure to factor in less in 2014.
3. Second Base - Given that eight spots in the lineup appear to be set, this is the last spot that could really see an upgrade in 2014. Omar Infante was worth 3.1 fWAR in 2013. Mark Ellis was worth 1.8. Howie Kendrick worth 2.7. Second base won't close the whole gap, but at this point it is the Royals most surefire way to inch closer to 45.5 fWAR in 2014.
4. Bench - The final spot for the Royals to continue to upgrade is their bench. Last season the Royals had an excellent bench in terms of fWAR. That bench has already been weakened at back up catcher. The Royals look to have a good group of back up outfielders, and with Emilio Bonifacio pushed to a super utility role throughout the season it could provide just a slight bump in the bench's season long fWAR total.
5. Starting Pitcher - The Royals already have brought in Jason Vargas, and they already have a few in house options to fill the final two rotation spots. However, if the Royals brought in a starter with decent value to replace the innings provided by Bruce Chen and Wade Davis in the four spot, the Royals could net another easy positive gain.

As you have probably realized right now, Kansas City is at a point on the win curve in which each little piece of marginal value is critical. This is why the Kottaras decision was so infuriating. It simply created an additional half win that Kansas City would need to find.

At this point, second base is the key spot moving forward. The Royals need to find an answer here. If they can do that they'll really close the gap heading into camp. It is much more realistic to need your lineup to pick up an extra 1.5 wins in progression than it is to ask them to pick up 3.5 wins in progression. I'll be severely disappointed if Emilio Bonifacio heads to Surprise with a starting job to lose.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams

In the Cross Hairs: Howie Kendrick

Filled with confidence and riding a six game winning streak, the word is that the Royals are no longer sellers. Why shouldn't they be, Baseball Prospectus now estimates their playoff odds at 1.8% percent! Now I know a 50:1 chance doesn't sound too fantastic, but with one Google search I found this. Guys, if she can get pregnant with a 2% chance, then our Royals can make the playoffs at 1.8%! Am I right?

Anyway, the other interesting development from last night came when Jeff Passan dropped this nugget about the Angels openness to dealing second baseman Howie Kendrick.

Angels are now 13 games back and open for business. Sources say they're willing to listen on Erick Aybar, Howie Kendrick and plenty more.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 29, 2013

If the Royals are going to buy, this is exactly the kind of player they should be looking for. Kendrick would fit perfectly into the two spot in the Royals order and he is an excellent defender at second base. Kendrick has been squaring up the ball at a career high level this year, which makes sense considering his spot on the age curve. He hits a ton of ground balls and line drives and does well to keep the ball out of the air. Based off this quick assessment of his batted balls, I think he would play very well at Kauffman Stadium.

Just for good measure, I decided to to adjust Kendrick's 2013 stats to Kauffman. As I suspected, his numbers take a good jump. So far in 2013, the 5'10" second baseman has hit .332/.358/.505, using Fangraphs 2012 park factors (2013 park factors are unavaible), Kendrick's home numbers jump to .341/.367/.526 in the friendly confines of Kauffman Stadium. This would raise his season line of .299/.339/.445 to .304/.343/.458.

Kendrick is under team control through 2015. He is owed approximately 3.35 million over the remainder of 2013, 9.35 million in 2014, and 9.5 million in 2015. Fangraphs estimates 1 Win Above Replacement to be worth about $5 million so if Kendrick can net the Royals an additional 1 WAR in the remainder of this season, and 2 WAR in each of 2014 and 2015, the Royals should come out ahead.

As of now, Steamer estimates Kendrick to be worth 1.2 fWAR over the final two months of the season. Steamer estimates Chris Getz to be worth 0.1 fWAR so it is pretty safe to say that Kendrick would net the Royals an additional Win Above Replacement.

Projecting Kendrick out over the next two plus seasons, and a fair number might be a contribution of 8 fWAR (roughly $40 million in estimated value). Based off the tables that I used in the Ervin Santana post, a fair value is probably Yordano Ventura or Danny Duffy plus an additional prospect in that ranks in the teens of the Royals system.

Unfortunately, the Royals are out of Brandon Sisks. Would you deal either five seasons of Danny Duffy or six plus seasons of Yordano Ventura for two plus of Howie Kendrick? Unless the Angels are viewing the Kendrick move as a sort of salary dump (and there are no indications that they would), these are the names that they would likely demand after being rebuffed for Kyle Zimmer.

Edit: I didn't mention this but what would be really interesting would be a three way trade in which the Royals send out Ervin Santana and acquire Kendrick. Duffy joins the rotation in Santana's place and Kendrick slides right into the lineup. Long term this is the optimum route and would be an excellent move by Kansas City.

Futures Game Preview

If you've got a chance tomorrow, be sure to take some time to watch the MLB Futures Game. The Royals have two participants in the game this season: Yordano Ventura and Miguel Almonte. Each of the Dominican pitchers could be particularly exciting in an exhibition setting as each feature electric stuff that should dial up in one inning stints.

Almonte has worked 87.2 innings this season in Low-A Lexington. He's averaging 8.9 strikeouts per 9 innings to 3 walks. Opposing South Atlantic League hitters are batting just .244/.313/.345 against him. Prior to Almonte's July 10, start the 6'2" righty hadn't allowed more than 2 earned runs in his last seven starts. For his career, Almonte is 11-9 with a 2.91 ERA.

Ventura, who stated on Twitter that he will be throwing the 9th inning for the World squad, has been dynamite in 2013. Thus far he struck out 110 batters in 92.1 innings spread out between Double and Triple A. While his walks have been high in Omaha, his FIP of 3.43 has actually been 0.66 better than the Pacific Coast League average. When you are striking out 23.2% of opposing hitters and limiting them to a .254/.344/.366 line, you're going to be alright.

Be sure to tune in to the game tomorrow to get a good luck on two of the top pitching prospects in the Royals organization.

Baseball America Midseason Top 50

On Monday the Baseball America released its mid-season prospect top 50. This list did not include recently drafted players. Here is how the American League Central shook out:

Indians

• 5) Francisco Lindor - The 2nd youngest player in the Carolina League continues to show excellent bat control striking out in just 10.6% of his plate appearances, good for second on the circuit.

Royals:

• 26) Yordano Ventura - Currently the 9th youngest player on the Pacific Coast Leauge circuit and the 15th youngest in Triple A baseball, Ventura has struck out 28.6% of the batters he has faced this season.
• 28) Kyle Zimmer -The Royals 2012 first round selection, appears to be the victim of Minor League infields and the range of Minor League infielders, not to mention the long ball. Personally, I think his 15% HR/FB% is flukey and when it comes to the things I care about he is having a fantastic season.
• 50) Raul Mondesi - The artist formerly known as Adalberto could climb this list even higher by the time next season's top 100 is released. Despite being the 3rd youngest player in full season baseball, Mondesi is hitting .328/.381/.431 in 16 games since the SAL All-Star break.

Tigers

• 15) Nick Castellanos - The 6th youngest player in Triple-A, Castellanos has not disappointed with the bat. The former 44th overall pick leads qualifying International League hitters with a .378 wOBA.

Twins:

• 1) Byron Buxton - The youngest player in the Florida State League has vaulted himself into top prospect status thanks to a .341/.431/.559 line. I will note that his LD% has been barely above league average at both his stops this season.
• 3) Miguel Sano - The youngest player in Double-A hasn't had any trouble in the power department. If he still qualified, he would rank second in the Florida State League in Isolate Power.
• 32) Alex Meyer - Among pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched in the Eastern League, Meyer ranks third with a 2.82 FIP and second with 10.77 K/9.

White Sox

• None - People aren't optimistic about his chances. He is old for his level and is putting up lackluster results. The White Sox continue to like him due to his less than charming personality and general douchebaggedness. Their dream scenario is that he turns into a more talented version of the Southside Spartan A.J. Pierzynski.

Also of note, the publication listed several breakout prospects over the first half of the season. The Royals had no prospects in this segment, but the Twins featured both Jose Berios and Eddie Rosario, while the Indians' Danny Salazar was also noted. The only two offseason top 100 prospects that failed to make Baseball America's mid-season top 50 were Bubba Starling and Chicago's Courtney Hawkins. Both failed to make the list due to strikeout concerns.

Specific to the Royals, Baseball America named Ventura as their top prospect in the system and Zimmer as having the most disappointing season thus far. Right hander Christian Binford was named as KC's top riser for the first half of the season. Binford The former 30th round draft choice boasts a 4.56 K/BB and a 50.6% ground ball percentage.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams

Northwest Arkansas Naturals Preview

Projected Lineup

CF - Brett Eibner

3B - Rey Navarro

SS - Orlando Calixte

1B - Matt Fields

C - Manny Pina

RF - Yem Prades

LF - Brian Fletcher

DH - Mitch Canham

2B - Alex McClure

Rotation

Noel Arguelles

Jason Adam

Sugar Ray Marimon

Yordano Ventura

J.C. Sulbaran

Bench

C - Juan Graterol, IF Whit Merrifield, OF Roman Hernandez

Bullpen

Yeliar Castro, Sam Runion, John Keck, Edwin Carl, Andy Ferguson, Santiago Garrido, Brooks Pounders,

Matt Ridings, Nick Rogers, Cole White

Notes on your Northwest Arkansas Naturals:

• The lineup is definitely a buzz-kill to begin the 2013 season.  There are a couple names to keep track of, but mainly, if you want to see a good hitting lineup, don't expect anything special.  Brett Eibner returns to his native homeland of Arkansas, which should excite the people of Springdale down to Fayetteville.  Last season with the Blue Rocks, Eibner was unsuccessful in hitting above the Mendoza-Line, hitting a depressing .196, but managed to smack 15 HR and bring in 53 RBI.  Since 2007, only 10 Royals minor leaguers have hit double-digit HR in Wilmington, so Brett obviously brings some pop.  Unfortunately, he has one more season before he's Rule V Draft eligible, and if he doesn't take drastic steps in improving his hitting, he could easily get claimed in the draft.

• Infielders Rey Navarro and Orlando Calixte will be others to watch.  Rey, 23, returns to NW Arkansas for a 3rd consecutive season.  Navarro will not hit for power, but has the ability to make decent contact, as he's hit .250 and .271 the past 2 seasons, respectively.  His stint with Omaha in 2012 was a nice surprise as he hit .300 in 60 plate appearances.  Rey is known for the glove, and since Calixte has arrived, he will have to make a move, most likely to 3B.  Orlando Calixte, 21, cracks our Top 10 prospect list as a 21 year old SS.  In 2012 for Wilmington, he posted a line of .281/.326/.426.  Like Navarro, Calixte is known for his play at SS and has tremendous range, but committed 46 errors at short last season in 556 opportunities.  Orlando is athletic enough to make a move elsewhere in the field, and if the fielding doesn't improve, a change in position could be inevitable.

• If you want to see some good pitching, you've come to the right place.  Joining the Naturals this year are Top Prospects Jason Adam and Yordano Ventura.  Adam threw for Wilmington last season and was a solid workhorse for the team, throwing 158 innings in 27 starts, posting a 3.53 era.  In his 2 professional seasons, Adam has proven he can go deep into games and give the pen a rest and along with his 6'4" athletic frame, Jason shouldn't have too many problems for the Naturals.  

• Ventura, 22, is #3 on our prospect list, and rightfully deserved.  Yordano had a good spring while pitching in the Royals rotation, and was mentioned as a candidate for the final spot in the rotation, before getting sent down to NW Arkansas.  Ventura will excite fans this year with his electrifying fastball that has touched 102 mph.  If all goes well, "Ace" should spend about half the season in Springdale before moving up to Omaha.  Hypothetically speaking, if the Royals were in the hunt and needed another arm in the pen, Ventura would be an acceptable move, just to get him accustomed to the big leagues.

• Noel Arguelles, the 23 year old Cuban defector, will be another familiar face to the Naturals fans as he returns to the rotation, and was named Opening Day starter.  Arguelles had a promising 2011 season with Wilmington coming off shoulder surgery.  Last season was a different story.  Going 4-14 with a 6.41 era in 25 starts doesn't look appealing on paper.  Although he has returned to normal velocity, which was low 90's, he showed great control last year, which is a baby step.  If velocity can return in Springdale, he could get back on track.  If it doesn't, our $7 million put into him goes down the drain.

Prospect Countdown: #3 Yordano Ventura

3. Yordano Ventura Right Handed Pitcher

www.kansascity.com

Age: 22
Position: RHP
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 140
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed as International Free Agent
From: Samana, Dominican Republic



Paden Bennett (5):  Yordano Ventura is one of my favorite prospects in the Royals organization. "Ace" Ventura has filthy stuff featuring a fastball that can reach up to 102 mph to go with an improving curveball and a solid changeup.  Ventura is a power pitcher although he doesn't look the part.  Listed at 5'11" and 140 lbs he doesn't look like a pitcher that will blow a 100+ mph fastball right by you.  "Ace" doesn't look like a guy that would be a big strikeout pitcher; but he is.  Yes, Ventura is a strikeout, power pitcher who a lot of Royals fans would've loved to see him in the rotation in the 5th spot.  However, going to Northwest Arkansas is the right decision because their is absolutely no need to rush this kid because he's just not completely ready yet.  It won't be long though, I expect to see Ventura in AAA pretty quickly this season and with an injury or two to a rotation starter in KC who knows he could make an appearance at the K.

Joe Cox (5): Yordano Ventura worked off his coming out party in A ball in 2011 to have another impressive season in 2012 split between high A and AA.  The 21 year old right handed pitcher from the Dominican Republic has rapidly become one of the Royals better prospects, and one of the more exciting right handed arms in the minors.  Despite Ventura’s small stature some scouts give his fastball that can reach 100 MPH and 80 grade on the 20-80 scouting scale.   He also profiles potential plus secondary pitches in a curveball and change-up.

One the field, Ventura has consistently limited walks, strike people out consistently and limit home runs.  Over a career high 109 innings last season he compiled 130 strike outs and a 3.62 ERA while walking only 32 batters.  The biggest question mark for Ventura will continue to be his durability, as his small frame (5-11, 140 lbs) could mean he may make the switch to a relief arm down the road.  If healthy, there is no reason to suspect he won’t to be impressive in the minors in 2013.  I would suspect he makes it to AAA at some point during the season and could be in the talks of making the team by opening day 2014.

Damion Mandalas (6): The hype surrounding Yordano Ventura this spring has almost create a sort of bubble effect. On the inside are those asking "where the (expletive) did this guy come from?" and on the outside are the Royals fans that know how to use Twitter. Ventura definitely impressed this Spring, but the Royals are making the right choice in opening him in Northwest Arkansas.

Given the state of the Royals rotation, there is zero reason to rush Ventura. I do believe he will move quick from here on, but it isn't hard to see the benefits from having him spend the entire season between Northwest Arkansas and Omaha. Of course, if the Royals are in the race and they need another bullpen arm, it might make sense to allow Ventura the opportunity to pitch in the pen in September as a way to acclimate himself to the Major League level. His 102 mph fastball? I'm sure it will play.

I've been a huge Ventura fan for awhile now. I like Zimmer, but I don't know that there is a pitcher with a higher ceiling in the Royals organization than "Ace". The Royals have had problems getting pitchers past the Double-A level, so it will be interested to see how Ventura performs in the Texas League in 2013.

Dan Ware (6):  "Ace" Ventura, yet another familiar face to the Springdale natives, will be on the mound for the Naturals to start off 2013.  Rated #85 on this year's Baseball America's Top 100 prospects, compiled decent numbers while playing in three different uniforms in 2012, logging most of his innings in Wilmington.  16 of his 23 starts were with the Blue Rocks, posting a 3.30 era, 76.1 IP, 98 Ks and 28 BB.  He impressed the Royals enough to get the call up to the Naturals, earning him 6 starts, which probably didn't go as planned for Yordano.

In 29.1 IP, he posted a 4.60 era, while striking out 25 batters and walking 13.  His K/BB ratio certainly took a nose dive after making the jump from Single-A to Double-A, but it's nothing to get worked up over.  Along with his powerful fastball, also rated the best in the Royals organization by B.A., he also contains an improving curve and changeup that are rated as a 60 and 55, respectively.  It would have been awesome to see Ventura win the 5th spot in the rotation, but even starting off in Northwest Arkansas, if he can get hot quickly, we'll more than likely see him by season's end, whether it's injury issues in Kansas City (Heaven forbid) or just a call-up.

Total Points: 102

Looking Ahead: The Rotation

Unfortunately, we are 40 games into the season and the Royals sit just 16-24. It doesn't take an astute observer to point out that the major flaw of this team and largest hindrance on future optimism has been its rotation. So what are we looking at to open 2013? Can the rotation at least be average? 

Potential Rotation Members Returning:

• Luke Hochevar
• Felipe Paulino
• Bruce Chen
• Danny Duffy* (Won't be back until June at the earliest.)

If you are still a believer in Hochevar, the Royals are two starters short, if not Kansas City will need to fill three spots. What the Royals do with these two openings will be critical, if they play it safe as they did last off season, an average rotation is likely a pipe dream. But let's keep in mind that the Royals may not necessarily have to fill all the open spots via free agency. So who could be ready from the farm?

• Mike Montgomery- With 35 starts in AAA, it'll just take a few dominate starts for Montgomery to break into the majors. Considering he has about 20 starts left in this season, he'll likely be ready to bust in next season. (We hope.)
• Will Smith- People tend to forget about Smith, because the upside just isn't as high for the former Angels farmhand. But the Royals feel very strongly that he has a near Major League arm and that eventually he could hold down a spot at the back of the rotation.
• Jake Odorizzi- Having proven himself in AA, he has the remainder of the summer to do the same in Omaha. He may not open in Kansas City next season, but there's a good chance he'll be in the mix to do so. 

(I've chosen not to include either Chris Dwyer or John Lamb because both have yet to prove themselves in AA. They could easily break into the Majors at some point in 2013, but we're looking at what the rotation could be to open the season.)

There's another guy that should be given the chance to start in 2013. The Royals paid a lot of lip service to Aaron Crow in the rotation entering 2012, but when Joakim Soria lost his season to Tommy John, the Royals felt Crow was needed to much in the bullpen. Considering the way the rotation has gone thus far, come mid-August Crow absolutely should be given the opportunity to start every fifth day. If Crow pitches even average in that month and a half, he should be given a rotation spot entering 2013.

So there's seven possibilities heading into 2013. If two out of Montgomery, Odorizzi, and Crow show they are ready to hold down rotation spots the Royals rotation will already receive an upgrade. Sure there would be some growing pains, but the talent and upside would be there. 

I also find it very unlikely that the front office would keep their hands out of free agency should the rotation continue to be as bad as it has been thus far. Fortunately for Kansas City, the upcoming free agent crop appears to be strong on the pitching side of things. The most intriguing name of the group for most of us is Zack Greinke. Personally, I expect him to be priced way out of the Royals range.

Another name to keep an eye on would be Kansas City's own and Missouri State prospect Shaun Marcum. If the Royals were able to net any hometown discount at all he would make a ton of sense. In seven seasons he boasts a career 3.74 ERA with a career K/BB of 2.64. 

Obviously, the road bump that Mike Montgomery has encountered is nerve racking. Clearly, the current rotation is a cause for concern. However, Chen continues to defy odds and it isn't hard to imagine him at least being a serviceable back end guy in 2013. Paulino could be the best starter on the roster. Personally, I could see him as a 2 or 3 on an average staff. If the Royals go get a free agent the Royals will have a make shift 1 (albeit most likely not an ace).

Finally, out of Luke Hochevar, Mike Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi, Nate Adcock and Will Smith, you need two to be the 3 and 4 starters. Obviously, several of the aforementioned guys offer more upside than the Royals have had in past rotations. Oh, and don't forget Danny Duffy will be back in June and John Lamb, Chris Dwyer, Jason Adam, and Yordano Ventura could be knocking at the door soon after. 

The Royals don't necessarily need to trade for a front end starter. The possibility exists that the rotation could be stronger next year than this year simply by giving the right guys the opportunity. I'd prefer to see the Royals take a more aggressive approach. There are free agents that would make sense, that could round out the front end. There's no reason to sell out for the ace, if the Kansas City's in contention next July, maybe then it will be time.

Prospect Countdown: #10 Yordano Ventura

#10 Yordano Ventura


Age: 20
Position: RHP
Height: 5-11
Weight: 160
Acquired: Signed as International Free Agent on October 8, 2008
From: Samana, Dominican Republic




There is no doubt that Dominican righty Yordano Ventura has some of the most electric stuff in the system. In fact, in a couple years time we may look back and wonder how such an awesome arm could have been so underrated. Ventura's dynamite stuff features a fastball that can hit 100 mph, while maintaining good late life, a curve that flashes plus potential, and a change up with late fade. Thanks to his arsenal, Ventura's upside could go toe to toe with any pitcher's upside in the organization. The possibility exists that one day Ventura could head a Major League rotation.

In 2011, Ventura took his talents to full season ball for the first time. He may have posted an ERA of 4.27, but make no mistake he was a dominate force on the circuit. Ventura's K/9 of 9.39 ranked 14th on the circuit, with only two of the pitchers in the top 13 being younger than him. His K:BB ratio of 3.67 ranked 19th in the Midwest League, with no pitcher ahead of him being younger.

As Rany Jazayerli has pointed out age is of the utmost importance when evaluating prospects, and when prospects are just beginning their professional careers even months are significant. In 2011, Yordano Ventura was not only one of the top starters in the Midwest League. He was one of the top starters in the Midwest League, while also being one of the youngest.

Of course if Ventura was so dominate, why was his ERA 4.27, nearly half a run higher than the Midwest League average? Well, keep in mind that Ventura's FIP came in 0.21 lower than the league mean, while his SIERA was 0.77 below the average mark. An explanation offered by Baseball America was that Ventura would often over throw in an attempt to light up the radar gun. As a result his stuff would flatten and opposing hitters would square him up more than the average pitcher. This theory is supported by an opponents line drive percentage of 20% (league average=14%).

Throwing harder when thing get tough is a common problem for young starters. Hell, Luke Hochevar has even admitted that in the past he has failed with such a tactic. Ventura is one of the most exciting prospects in the system and he has incredible breakout potential. His small frame is a bit concerning. In fact, look no further than Kelvin Herrera for an example of a potentially dominate hurler limited to the bullpen due to his frame.

Hopefully, for Kansas City Ventura can avoid the arm troubles that Herrera could not, and Ventura can develop into the front line guy that the Royals so desperately need. Ventura will have all the opportunity for an eye popping 2012 campaign with an assignment to pitcher's paradise Frawley Stadium in the Carolina League.

Picture taken from MiLB.com

Prospect Countdown: 20-16

20. David Lough OF



I am definitely a big fan in the David Lough camp. After breaking out in 2009, he made a bit of noise at spring training prior to the 2010 season and I fully expected him to be called up after the deadline to replace one of the traded outfielders. This unfortunately didn't happen as Lough got off to a semi slow start in the Pacific Coast League. But what happened in the second half of the season for Lough was something that makes me even more optimistic of his future.

Prior to the all star break Lough had drawn 19 walks to 33 strikeouts in 302 at bats. His triple slash was .262/.313/.424. Obviously this is part of the reason why Lough was not given an opportunity at the big league level post trade deadline. However from that point on Lough's approach at the plate took a huge step forward from where it had been in his previous three and a half seasons.

In the second half of the season Lough posted a k:bb of 25:21. In 158 at bats he hit to a tune of .316/.403/.462. This improved plate approach helped Lough in the contact and power departments. Also, given that the major complaint against Lough was his average driven on base percentage, if these numbers are a sign of things to come then his stock only rises.

I am a fan of Lough game. He has solid tools across the board, but no real plus tools. Royals' fans often throw out comparisons to DeJesus when talking about Lough and I suppose this is fair. Although it does seem like anytime the Royals have a prospect that is solid, but doesn't have any plus tools he gets DDJ comparisons. I believe that Lough has more speed than DeJesus and could even have more power. But I believe DeJesus still gets the nod in defense, arm and plate discipline.

Lough is an athletic player that could be a defensive asset in left field. He seems like a great guy every time I have had the opportunity to talk with him (twice). He could be a very valuable fourth outfielder for a contending team and a guy that other team's would like to give more at bats as a starter.

What Gordon does in 2011 will play a significant role in Lough's future as a Royal. Given that it is hard to see Francouer as a Royals for just one season. If Gordon performs as most expect him to, Lough will be a fourth outfield option for the team. However, if Gordon struggles or if the Royals do cut ties with Francouer I hope that Lough is granted an everyday opportunity. You have to be intrigued by a guy that posts 15 doubles, 12 triples, and 11 homers in a season. (Especially when he would be moving to the triple friendly Kauffman Stadium.)

19. Jason Adam

Entering the 2010 first year player draft, I thought that Yasmani Grandal was likely to be the guy. However, the Royals threw everyone a changeup when they selected Christian Colon with their first round selection. The other thing that I expected was that the Royals would find Jason Adam at some point later in the draft and that they would then sign him to an over-slot deal much like the one Tim Melville had received a couple years before. This prediction came true when the Royals selected Jason Adam with their fifth round pick and signed him to an over-slot bonus of $800K.

Like Melville, Adam was another local product actually living roughly 20 miles away from Kauffman Stadium. So the Royals did not want to let a local product slip through the grasps and it is a good thing they didn't. In instructs Adam received glowing reviews from Royals officials as his fastball routinely sat in the mid 90s. He also flashed promising secondary offerings with a curveball in the high 70s and a low 80s change-up.

I expect Adam to stay back in extended spring training as a way to limit his innings in his first season. But after that he should report to low-a Kane County for the 2011 season.

18. Cheslor Cuthbert



Cheslor Cuthbert was one of the big international signees for the Royals in 2009. He was hailed as the top prospect to ever come from Nicaragua. He actually came from a small island off the coast of the country called the Corn Island. On this island they speak primarily English and so Cuthbert will be without the burden of learning both a new language and culture as he makes his way into professional baseball.

This is probably a major factor in the Royals decision to begin him in the states as just as seventeen year old. His final numbers weren't spectacular but when put in perspective they provide plenty of reason for optimism. His season was going very well until a hand or wrist injury wound up ending his season. Considering the kid was already playing against competition years older than him, it isn't surprising that an injury such as this could have brought a quick statistical collapse to his season.

Cuthbert won't win many races but he has good bat speed and an advanced approach at the plate. When signed several said he could one day develop into an Adrian Beltre type player. Since he is projected to have good power and strong defense I would say this is a fair comparison.

The Royals say there is no reason to be concerned about the injury and I don't see any reason to be. Cuthbert will probably stay in short season ball for 2011, but it is possible that he could start the season in Kane County if he really impresses the Royals in Spring Training.


17. Yordano Ventura




In 2008, the Royals signed Yordano Ventura out of he Dominican for $28K. But as it usually goes on the international market the best players tend to not be the fattest bonus babies. Ventura represents a good piece for the Royals scouting department. When he signed he stood 5-11 with about a 140 pounds on his thin frame. He threw in the high 80s at the time, but now he has added twenty pounds and he throws absolute gas.

His fastball is a plus-plus pitch that consistently sits in the upper 90s. He also throws an improving curveball that some project as a plus pitch and a changeup has shown flashes. Being 5-11 and Dominican, Ventura has drawn comparisons to Pedro Martinez. It seems to me as though every promising short Dominican righty draws comparisons to Pedro so I am not going to get too worked up about this.

The Royals should continue to play it safe with an arm with as much potential as Ventura's. Steadily improve the workload as he is progressed through the minors. However, first sign of trouble I wouldn't be opposed to moving him to the pen where he instantly becomes a future closer. If he can prove that he can handle the workload he has front end potential written all over him.

Ventura should spend 2011 in short season ball in either the Appalachian or Pioneer League.

16. Robinson Yambati

Given their similar ascension up the Royals prospect charts, their nationalities, and their ability to throw heat Ventura and Robinson Yambati could be discussed as a pair for a long time. Yambati has larger frame than Ventura as he stands at 6-3, 185. For this reason I am going to give Yambati the slight odd, because his body type doesn't scare me quite like Ventura's does.

Yambati's fastball isn't quite on Ventura's level but he has hit the mid 90s on the gun before. He also has curve and a change that both need development. Given his size I expect him to stick in the rotation and one day he could play a critical role for the organization as a rookie and on. Just imagine in 2015 the Royals are in a thick playoff race and a starter goes down due to injury. The Royals call up Yambati and instantly he steps right in and succeeds.

Yambati and Ventura are going to be part of a group of guys that will be called upon in crucial situations as rookies and second year guys. They are the guys that will be asked to fill the shows of their older counterparts. Think Tampa Bay Rays, who the past couple of years have had a wealth of pitching talent to take advantage of at the major league level.

Yambati could make the jump to Kane County at somepoint in 2011, or he could spend the season in short season ball building up his innings count as he prepares for the workload that full season baseball offers.