Northwest Arkansas Naturals 2014 Preview

Defense

LF - Whit Merrifield

CF - Lane Adams

RF - Jorge Bonifacio

3B - Cheslor Cuthbert

SS - Orlando Calixte

2B - Justin Trapp*

1B - Mark Threlkeld*

C - Juan Graterol

Rotation

Jason Adam

Greg Billo*

Tim Melville

Noel Arguelles

Sugar Ray Marimon

Bench

C - Micah Gibbs*, C - Parker Morin*, IF - Angel Franco, IF - Yowill Espinal, OF - Ethan Chapman*,  OF - Roman Hernandez, OF - Edinson Rincon

Bullpen

Scott Alexander, Angel Baez*, Malcom Culver, Cody Fassold*, Andy Ferguson, Hassan Pena*, J.C. Sulbaran, Andrew Triggs

Notes:

• There are 9 new faces that will put on a Naturals uniform for the 2014 season.  One of the more notable debuts is 23 year old pitcher Greg Billo.
• To begin the year, the roster doesn't look all that great to those who pay attention to prospects and all things Minor Leagues, but with a fully loaded Wilmington Blue Rocks roster, there will be some big name players that could easily arrive in Springdale by mid-season (Dozier, Starling, Mondesi, Almonte, Manaea, etc.)
• Top Prospect Kyle Zimmer, who ended last year's season with the Naturals, will stay in Arizona for extended Spring Training to get some work in while recovering from biceps tendinitis in his shoulder.  He is expected to join the Naturals on May 20th.
• Jason Adam returns to the Naturals after throwing 144 innings in 2013.  Although Jason posted a career high K rate, he's coming off a disappointing year on the bump as he also logged career highs in ERA (5.13) and BB/9 (3.38).  As of now, his ceiling is that of a back-end starter.  His pitches are solid, but lack the flash as they once did back in his Instructional League days.  His fastball velocity has dipped the past couple seasons and if he can somehow work his way back to his rookie year throwing 98 mph, his status has a rotation candidate will rise drastically.
• Adam won't be the only pitcher to watch at Arvest Ballpark.  Newcomer Greg Billo makes his Double-A debut coming off a successful 2013 campaign as he worked his back from Tommy John surgery.  In 40 innings for Lexington, he posted a 1.35 ERA, his best since 2011, 38 K's, 13 BB and 6 ER, along with a FIP of 2.93.  
• Ranked as #4 in the Royals' Top 10 Prospects from Baseball America, RF Jorge Bonifacio will come back to Springdale for a second season only because age is definitely on his side.  The 20 year old has a pure swing with a lot of power potential.  Between Wilmington and a short stint with the Naturals in '13, his slash line was .298/.372/.429 with 4 HR and 55 RBI.  Scouts still say the power is there and will arrive soon.  It will be nice to see Bonifacio display that power in a full season at Arvest Ballpark.

Prospect Countdown: #1 Kyle Zimmer

1. Kyle Zimmer Right Handed Pitcher

milb.com

Age: 22
Position: RHP
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 215
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st Round of the 2012 Amateur Draft
From: San Francisco, CA

2013 Rank: 2

Landon Adams (2): The closer I look at Kyle Zimmer's 2013 season, the more impressive the numbers become. On the surface, it is easy to be somewhat disappointed in his 4.82 ERA while at High-A Wilmington. However, a closer look yields some inspiring findings. For example, Zimmer ranked first in the league in strikeouts per nine innings for pitchers logging at least 80 innings (11.34). He also ranked first in SIERA at 2.71. 

Upon his promotion to Northwest Arkansas, Zimmer's peripherals actually ticked up. His strikeouts per nine innings jumped to 13. His walk rate fell from 3.11 per nine to 2.41 and groundball percentage was able to stay at nearly 49%. Unlike in Wilmington though, Zimmer's ERA followed the directions of his peripherals and came in at a sterling 1.93.

I wrote at length about the speculation the Royals hopes that Zimmer could serve a similar role to the one that Michael Wacha served for the Cardinals in 2014. You can read that post here. Personally, this sort of forecast seems extremely optimistic. At the same time the Royals do have a front end starter that is near Major League ready. It would be silly to not plan for him as part of the Major League picture. Hopefully, this plays out for the Royals the same way as it did for the Cardinals a year ago.

Paden Bennett (2): Kyle Zimmer is filthy, he is electric, and downright scary sometimes.  Unfortunately him being shut down early last season due to biceps tendinitis was also scary.  Although Zimmer says his arm feels fine it looks the Royals are going to be very careful with him.  The Royals are going to keep him on a 150 inning limit as of now.  I can get on board with this, Zimmer has an phenomenal arm with phenomenal stuff and he is going to be a big part of our future very soon.  

Zimmer dominated in his brief stint in NWA last year.  In just 18.2 innings he gave up 4 runs with 27 ks to just 5 walks.  He is a power pitcher with big strikeout potential using his incredible fastball and nasty slider.  I hope to see this guy start in NWA or Omaha and get called up to help us during our playoff run this season (ideally).

Joe Cox (1): The number one player on our 2014 Top Prospects List is Kyle Zimmer.  Since being drafted 5^th overall in the 2012 amateur draft, Zimmer has done nothing but dominate while on the field.  Unfortunately, his 2013 season was cut short as a shoulder injury forced him to be shut down for the rest of the year.  The injury should not affect his status in 2014, and he appears to be recovering without any issue, though any time your prize pitching prospect goes under the knife you have to feel a little uneasy.  

Before the injury Zimmer had just made the move up to AA and had four starts and a 1.93 ERA while striking out 13 K/9.  Prior to this in Carolina, Zimmer had a 4.82 ERA in 18 starts.  This ERA was inflated due to a 59.2 LOB%, as his FIP was just 3.12.   Zimmer has also shown great command limiting his walk totals at each level. 

Zimmer has yet to throw a pitch above AA and is coming off an arm injury, so expectations will have to be tempered somewhat for any major league success he could have this year.  That being said, he has the talent where best case scenario is that Zimmer forces the Royals hand and receives some key starts down the stretch.  Zimmer has the ceiling to be a legit 1-2 pitcher in any rotation, and could be a mainstay in the Royals rotation starting as early as this summer. 

Dan Ware (1): Ranked as my #1 prospect on Royal Revival's Countdown, Zimmer was certainly a topic of discussion during Spring Training.  Unfortunately, it wasn't about him vying for the 5th spot in the rotation.  Last season, he was shut down early due to a biceps tendinitis issue, which during the winter gave him complications, but not to worry, the 22 year old phenom says his arm feels great.  That doesn't mean the Royals were ready to just put him on the mound and have him go 100%.  Although Zimmer was invited to the Big League camp this spring, his stint lasted just a couple weeks before heading to the side fields with the Minors.

Despite the gloomy stats in Wilmington, Zimmer never had issues with his shoulder and always felt confident in his stuff, yet still earned his way to Double-A Northwest Arkansas, where he did nothing but dominate the Texas League, as he held batters to a .162/.240/.279 line.  I had the pleasure, along with fellow writers Landon Adams and Nathan Bramwell, to watch Kyle's Double-A debut in Springdale, and it was a dandy: 6 innings of 3 H, 1 BB, 7 K's, which was rewarded by a standing ovation from the crowd.  Consistently, his fastball sits anywhere from 92-96 mph and can go up to 98 mph when he's feelin' it.  That night, Zimmer was touching 100 mph a few times on the mound.  Let's not forget stadium radar gun's can be slightly misleading and that this was his first start in a Naturals uniform, but let's not forget that he has the ability to rear back and throw straight gas. 

The Royals will be giving Zimmer the 'Jose Fernandez' treatment (minus 20 innings).  During February, the Royals decided to give Kyle a 150-inning limit for 2014, regardless of who he's throwing for.  It's still a toss-up if Zimmer will stay in Arizona to for extended S.T., but the Royals hope for Zimmer to open this season with either NW Arkansas or Omaha.  

I fully support the course of action the Royals are taking with Zimmer.  Kyle is now considered the Royals version of Michael Wacha.  If all goes to plan to start 2014, the Royals would like Zimmer to be in Kansas City by June, giving the Royals an extra push towards a playoff berth. 

Nicholas Ian Allen (--): I like Zimmer a lot. He has tremendous upside and should help the big league club this season. That said, I would have ranked him third or fourth in the prospect rankings behind Ventura, Mondesi and possibly Starling.

I wrote about Zimmer in the Prospects on the Verge series for Grading on the Curve. Read my full observation here.

Total Points: 118

The Uber Top 100

On Wednesday, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pro Blog did us all the favor of compiling the various prospect rankings into one list. It's a good opportunity to gauge a broader view than looking at individual lists. You can look at the whole list here. Here's where the Royals broke in:

• 22 - Kyle Zimmer
• 29 - Yordano Ventura
• 32 - Raul Adalberto Mondesi
• 83 - Miguel Almonte
• 105 - Jorge Bonifacio
• 115 - Sean Manaea
• 128 - Hunter Dozier

Overall, a pretty good job by the Royals to net seven players on the list. Just for fun let's take a quick look at how the rest of the American League Central fared:

Chicago White Sox:

• 66 - Erik Johnson
• 75 - Matt Davidson
• 122 - Marcus Semein
• 131 - Tim Anderson

Cleveland Indians:

• 9 - Francisco Lindor
• 40 - Clint Frazier
• 102 - Trevor Bauer

Detroit Tigers:

• 27 - Nick Castellanos
• 116 - Devon Travis
• 129 - Robbie Ray

Minnesota Twins:

• 1 - Byron Buxton
• 7 - Miguel Sano
• 35 - Alex Meyer
• 49 - Kohl Stewart
• 71 - Eddie Rosario
• 103 - J.O. Berrios
• 104 - Josmil Pinto

Obviously, the Twins system is very strong right now, especially with two in the top 10. It's also good to see that outside of Castellanos, there isn't much in the pipeline for Detroit. Also of note, is Jake Odorizzi slotting in at 78. 

The Royals system isn't what it was a couple of years ago, but when you consider the youth of the Major League roster and the quantity of guys included in this list, it's good to know that the organization has done a sound job in keeping the pipeline stocked with high upside talent. 

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

Looking to Future Rotations

With each passing day that Ervin Santana remains a free agent, more and more Royals fans' confidence grows that Santana could return to Kansas City. While I hate to throw water on to these dreams, I am afraid that I have to.

Santana will not be coming back to Kansas City.

The Royals are too deep into their off-season plans and it is woefully apparent that whether or not it is true, the team is operating with the opinion that $90 million is the break even point. The rotation has four out of five spots left and multiple candidates for the fifth spot that are deserving of a chance with the big league club.

Here's a quick snapshot of the next few years rotations:

2014

1. James Shields
2. Jeremy Guthrie
3. Jason Vargas
4. Bruce Chen
5. TBD

2015

1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. Jason Vargas
3. TBD
4. TBD
5. TBD

2016 & 2017

1. Jason Vargas
2. TBD
3. TBD
4. TBD
5. TBD

Obviously, it is the Royals hope that they can fill their rotation with homegrown talent starting next season. Just a month or so ago, J.J. Picollo even stated that he expects Danny Duffy, Yordano Ventura, Kyle Zimmer, and Sean Manaea all to be ready to hold down big league spots. Also, on the horizon is Jason Adam and Miguel Almonte. 

It does appear that the Royals will have the arms to fill out a couple of spots in their big league rotation, but are they going to be able to fill three spots as soon as next season? 

What if this season Duffy totally loses control and Kyle Zimmer blows out his elbow? Where will that leave the Royals next off-season as they attempt to fill out their rotation. Would it be more economical to sign Santana now when conceivably his price has been diminished or would it be better to jump the market and overpay next off-season for another Vargas/Guthrie type. 

If the Royals were to sign Santana, he could slot into the rotation instead of Bruce Chen for 2014. With the addition of Santana, Chen could slide into a swing man role and the Royals could still have a competition for the final rotation spot. Next season, they'd ideally have established one or two of the Duffy, Ventura, Zimmer bunch and would be able to fill out a rotation with some confidence. 

Given the Royals history of starting pitcher development, it seems incredibly ballsy to expect the the current crop of prospects can fill three spots in next years rotation. This indicates to me that next off-season the Royals will once again have to dip their toes into the starting pitching market of free agency. So I leave you with a final question: would it be better to go over the salary threshold this year to get Santana at below market value, or would it be better to wait and overpay next off-season? 

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

2014 Michael Wacha

If you missed Saturday's article from Andy McCullough titled "Royals hope Kyle Zimmer will be part of their pitching picture in playoffs", do yourself a favor and read it here. Also, check out this quote from Royals Assistant General Manager J.J. Picollo regarding how Kyle Zimmer figures into the 2014 Royals.

"The goal would be to have him peaking in the minor leagues in late May, June, going into July and then really ramping it up and taking the handcuffs off him, hopefully in a playoff run, and he pitches in September and hopefully October."

 Last season Michael Wacha made waves across Major League Baseball when in 64.2 innings he dominated big league hitters to the tune of a 2.78 ERA. This included a stretch of five starts in September when he limited opposing hitters to a .198/.264/.261 line and posted a 1.72 ERA. Wacha carried this momentum right on into the playoffs and allowed just 1 run in 21 innings.

Obviously, Wacha represents the dream scenario for Kyle Zimmer in 2014. In fact, during the regular season Wacha pitched exactly 150 innings, coincidentally that is the same number that the Royals have thrown out for Zimmer's mark this season. The way in which the Cardinals managed Wacha's count was by moving him to the bullpen throughout August, as well as allowing him just two starts between June 18 and July 24.

It will be interesting to see the Royals approach on this. If they truly believe that Zimmer will play as big of role down the stretch as they indicate, then they will likely start Zimmer slow. I can't see the Royals being able to utilize the bullpen to limit Zimmer's innings like the Cardinals did. Of course, I''m just sitting in my mother's basement eating cheetos, so what do I know?

Two Royals on AL Prospect Dream Team

Last week, Bernie Pleskoff of MLB.com made his selections for his 2014 AL Prospect Dream Team. Here is what he had to say regarding the two Royals to make the squad. You can view the rest of the team here.

"Pitcher: Kyle Zimmer, Royals 22 - Zimmer could easily become the best of the lot with the movement on his pitches. If he throws strikes consistently, his ceiling is top-of-the-rotation, All-Star quality starter."

 "Pitcher: Yordano Ventura, Royals, 22 - Ventura has one of the power arms that just won't quit. If he can find the plate with consistency, he can win plenty of games. I'd like to see Ventura bring the 97 mph down a bit to get more movement."

Even when the Royals boasted the best farm systems in the history of farm systems, there wasn't a pair of pitching prospects that matched the talent and proximity to the Majors of Ventura and Zimmer. As far as their impacts on the 2014 team, Zimmer will probably return to Northwest Arkansas with Ventura returning to Omaha. With the signing of Bruce Chen, if things go well I expect Ventura to replace Chen in the rotation in mid-May/early June.

Of course, I shouldn't totally discount Dayton Moore's comments in today's presser when he revealed that with a strong spring he wouldn't be against Ventura opening the season in the bullpen. Let me state this as clearly as possible. Ventura should not begin the season in the bullpen.

The Royals have plenty of bullpen arms. The reason Ventura offers the team so much value is because of his potential as a front end starter. A move to the pen and he just is another arm in the back of the bullpen (albeit a potentially dominant one). If Ventura doesn't earn a rotation spot, he should be sent back to Omaha to continue to log innings as a starter. Thus far, Ventura has only received 164 innings in the high minors, a little more seasoning wouldn't be the worst thing for the Dominican.

Kansas City has two dynamite starting pitching prospects in the upper minors. They have two more that will likely open the season in Wilmington (Miguel Almonte and Sean Manaea). Hopefully, for the Royals this crop of pitchers fares better than the artist formerly known as the "Four Lefties of the Apocalypse."

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams

Kyle Zimmer, SIERA, and the Natural State

On Sunday evening, we learned that Kyle Zimmer would be promoted to Northwest Arkansas. Most expected the promotion to come much earlier in the season, but after a hard luck start to the season, Zimmer had to wait until mid-June for the jump to the Texas League.

I say hard luck because I don't believe for a second that Zimmer's ERA (4.82) is at all reflective of his 2013 performance. In fact, by some measures it would appear that Zimmer has in fact been quite dominate. So dominate that this promotion is probably long overdue.

Most of you reading this blog know the importance of strikeout percentage. Most of those people even realize that strikeout percentage is more important when evaluating players at the lower levels of Minor League Baseball. It is also no secret, that the Royals 2012 first round pick has had no problem fanning opposing hitters. In 18 starts as a Blue Rock, the 6'3" righty has struck out 21.6% of opposing hitters and 11.34 per nine innings. Zimmer has accomplished this while only walking 3.11 batters per 9 innings and has limited home runs to just 0.90 per 9. Naturally, this leaves Zimmer with an excellent FIP of 3.12.

I theorize that even Zimmer's FIP isn't praising Zimmer as high as it should be. Fielding Independent Pitching takes into consideration a pitcher's strikeout, walk and home run rate and provides the audience with a number that represents what his ERA should be based off of those three rate stats. However, it is also clear that a pitcher has a say in the number of ground balls that he allows.

In many cases FIP gets away with this because a pitcher's home run rate reflects the pitcher's ability to keep the ball down (xFIP goes even farther and neutralizes the home run percentage). The exclusion of ground ball percentage is even more pronounced in the evaluation of prospects due to shoddy infields and lesser fielders.

What we need is a stat that accounts for ground ball percentage. Fortunately, we have SIERA, which even goes a step farther and accounts for the following: (You can read the full article on SIERA here.)

1. Allows for the fact that a high ground-ball rate is more useful to pitchers who walk more batters, due to the potential that double plays wipe away runners.
2. Allows for the fact that a low fly-ball rate (and therefore, a low HR rate) is less useful to pitchers who strike out a lot of batters (e.g. Johan Santana's FIP tends to be higher than his ERA because the former treats all HR the same, even though Santana’s skill set portends this bombs allowed will usually be solo shots).
3. Allows for the fact that adding strikeouts is more useful when you don't strike out many guys to begin with, since more runners get stranded.
4. Allows for the fact that adding ground balls is more useful when you already allow a lot of ground balls because there are frequently runners on first.
5. Corrects for the fact that QERA used GB/BIP instead of GB/PA (e.g. Joel Pineiro is all contact, so increasing his ground-ball rate means more ground balls than if Oliver Perez had done it, given he's not a high contact guy).
6. Corrects for the fact that FIP and xFIP use IP as a denominator which means that luck on balls in play changes one's FIP.

Kyle Zimmer is second in SIERA for pitchers who have thrown 75 or more innings at the High-A level. This season Kyle Zimmer's SIERA stands 2.71, which is right in line with his career mark of 2.73. FIP is excellent at mirroring what a pitcher's ERA should have been in a given season, but according to Matt Swartz and Eric Seidman of Baseball Prospectus, SIERA overtakes FIP in predicting long term performance. Wouldn't that make SIERA more important than FIP in minor league evaluation?

Baseball America Midseason Top 50

On Monday the Baseball America released its mid-season prospect top 50. This list did not include recently drafted players. Here is how the American League Central shook out:

Indians

• 5) Francisco Lindor - The 2nd youngest player in the Carolina League continues to show excellent bat control striking out in just 10.6% of his plate appearances, good for second on the circuit.

Royals:

• 26) Yordano Ventura - Currently the 9th youngest player on the Pacific Coast Leauge circuit and the 15th youngest in Triple A baseball, Ventura has struck out 28.6% of the batters he has faced this season.
• 28) Kyle Zimmer -The Royals 2012 first round selection, appears to be the victim of Minor League infields and the range of Minor League infielders, not to mention the long ball. Personally, I think his 15% HR/FB% is flukey and when it comes to the things I care about he is having a fantastic season.
• 50) Raul Mondesi - The artist formerly known as Adalberto could climb this list even higher by the time next season's top 100 is released. Despite being the 3rd youngest player in full season baseball, Mondesi is hitting .328/.381/.431 in 16 games since the SAL All-Star break.

Tigers

• 15) Nick Castellanos - The 6th youngest player in Triple-A, Castellanos has not disappointed with the bat. The former 44th overall pick leads qualifying International League hitters with a .378 wOBA.

Twins:

• 1) Byron Buxton - The youngest player in the Florida State League has vaulted himself into top prospect status thanks to a .341/.431/.559 line. I will note that his LD% has been barely above league average at both his stops this season.
• 3) Miguel Sano - The youngest player in Double-A hasn't had any trouble in the power department. If he still qualified, he would rank second in the Florida State League in Isolate Power.
• 32) Alex Meyer - Among pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched in the Eastern League, Meyer ranks third with a 2.82 FIP and second with 10.77 K/9.

White Sox

• None - People aren't optimistic about his chances. He is old for his level and is putting up lackluster results. The White Sox continue to like him due to his less than charming personality and general douchebaggedness. Their dream scenario is that he turns into a more talented version of the Southside Spartan A.J. Pierzynski.

Also of note, the publication listed several breakout prospects over the first half of the season. The Royals had no prospects in this segment, but the Twins featured both Jose Berios and Eddie Rosario, while the Indians' Danny Salazar was also noted. The only two offseason top 100 prospects that failed to make Baseball America's mid-season top 50 were Bubba Starling and Chicago's Courtney Hawkins. Both failed to make the list due to strikeout concerns.

Specific to the Royals, Baseball America named Ventura as their top prospect in the system and Zimmer as having the most disappointing season thus far. Right hander Christian Binford was named as KC's top riser for the first half of the season. Binford The former 30th round draft choice boasts a 4.56 K/BB and a 50.6% ground ball percentage.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams

Wilmington Blue Rocks Preview

Projected Lineup

2B - Justin Trapp

SS - Jack Lopez

3B - Cheslor Cuthbert

RF - Jorge Bonifacio

CF - Lane Adams

1B - Murray Watts

DH - Daniel Mateo

LF - Tim Ferguson

C - Parker Morin

Rotation

Kyle Zimmer

Sam Selman

Kyle Smith

John Lamb

Angel Baez

Bench

C Kenny Swab, IF Kenneth Diekroger, IF Nick DelGuidice, OF Geulin Beltre, OF Chris Elder

Bullpen

Antonio Cruz, Robinson Yambati, Aaron Brooks, Malcom Culver, Cody Fassold, Kellen Moen, 

Spencer Patton, Andrew Tiggs

Notes on the 2013 Blue Rocks:

•  The middle of the lineup will be one of the more popular topics regarding Wilmington to start this season off.  Cuthbert is looking for a bounce back year, after hitting .240/.296/.322 with an ISO of .082.  Cheslor's GB% was 46.7 while his BB% was 7.2.  Although his K% was well below the Carolina League average, if he can work on a line-drive swing and being a little more patient at the plate, Cuthbert we'll get back on track in no time.
• Jorge Bonifacio, the 19 year old "not so athletic younger brother of Emilio" and #5 on our 2013 Prospect List, held his own for sure at the plate in Kane County last season, hitting .282 with 10 HR and 61 RBI, not as pretty as Twins top prospect Miguel Sano (28 HR 100 RBI), but still very promising for the time being and his age.  The C.L. is known for being a "pitcher's league" so hopefully Bonifacio can keep up the pace from his Kane County days.
• Jason Adam, 23, has sort of slipped off our radar, but still remains a prospect for now.  Last season, starting off with Kane County, was a solid bounce back from an ugly 2011 season.  Once joining the Blue Rocks, his batting average fell nearly 60 points compared to his K.C. appearances.  If Jason wants to remain in the organization, he'll need to get it going in Wilmington before it's too late.

• Murray Watts, 27, is definitely on the scolding hot seat at this point.  Last year he compiled a line of .221/.299/.394 in 30 games for the Blue Rocks, hitting only 4 HR with an ISO of .173.  The problem with Murray is he doesn't make contact well at all and doesn't have good patience at the plate, striking out 35.9% of the time while walking only 10.3% of his ABs.  This will most likely be the final year for Murray in the Royals organization if he doesn't show signs of improvement.

• The rotation will definitely be the highlight of Wilmington to kick off the season this Thursday, April 4th.  With four of our own Top 15 prospects in the rotation alone, Royals fans will want to keep tabs on the Blue Rocks for a while.  Kyle Zimmer headlines the staff, as he comes off an exciting rookie season in Kane County.  A workhorse who will give you lots of innings, like former Blue Rock Jason Adam, should split time between Wilmington and Northwest Arkansas, if all goes to plan.  Sam Selman and Kyle Smith join Zimmer in their quest, alongside rehabbing John Lamb, who is back to full health, but needs some time to regain some of his velocity.  

• Another guy to look after his reliever Robinson Yambati.  At 22, he has a three quarter arm delivery, a low 90's fastball, and an incredible GB% of 65.6, thanks to his ability to keep the ball low in the strike zone.  If he continues his success from 2012, he'll be in Northwest Arkansas before too long, and possibly even Omaha before season's end.

Prospect Countdown: #2 Kyle Zimmer

2. Kyle Zimmer Right Handed Pitcher

www.milb.com

Age: 21
Position: RHP
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 215
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st Round (5th Overall) of the 2012 Amateur Draft
From: San Francisco, CA



Paden Bennett (4):  Out of all the Royals pitching prospects Kyle Zimmer is the one you should get to know very quickly, Zimmer is the one that could move the the system extremely fast because of his combination of a fastball that can reach 99 mph, a curveball that can get up to 81 mph and a solid changeup. All 3 of his pitches rank above average on the 20/80 scale.  I expect big things from Zimmer this season.  I think he will play at 3 levels this season.  Zimmer in my opinion will have a huge year and will be starting for the Omaha Stormchasers by the end of the season.  Keep a tab on this kid Royals fans because he has the stuff to front a rotation for us in the future.

Joe Cox (6): While the Royals have a lot of interesting young pitching, Kyle Zimmer quickly became the highest rated pitching prospect in the system after he was drafted fifth overall in last season’s amateur draft. Zimmer is a 6-3 185 pound righty that pitched for the University of San Fransisco is a polished pitcher at 21 years old and could advance to the majors as early as 2014.  The Royals will have no choice if Zimmer continues to dominate the minors like he did over 40 innings last season.

While pitching only 9 combined starts between rookie league and A level competition, he allowed only one home run and struck out 42 batters.   He also showed his command of the plate with only eight walks.  Zimmer has a four pitch arsenal, with a fastball that normally hits the low to mid 90’s.  His changeup is said to be his worst offering, but has potential to be an effective pitch if he can learn to command the pitch.  I would suspect Zimmer to begin the year in high A and reach AA or even AAA by the end of the season.  This was the perfect draft pick for the Royals last year and Zimmer has a good chance to be a top of the rotation arm for many years for the Royals, who desperately need to see a pitching prospect pan out.

Damion Mandalas (2):  One of the primary reasons to be so excited for Kyle Zimmer, is the way in which he fits into the Royals pitching philosophies. The Royals preach fastball, curveball, changeup and those are exactly the three pitches that Kyle Zimmer excels at. Also, the Royals like to grab pitchers early in their pitching careers in an attempt to mold them into the type of hurler they want them to become.

While Zimmer is already 21 years old, he has an incredibly low amount of mileage on his arm, compared to other college pitchers. The Royals probably take this to mean, that Zimmer has a considerably more upside than your typical college pitcher. For the Royals this represents the best of both worlds: an advanced pitcher who also has the upside that the Royals seek out.

Hopefully, all of these factors will contribute to the developmental victory that the Royals have yet to achieve when it comes to starting pitchers. Producing front end starters is the most difficult task of player development, but given the meshing of Zimmer and the Royals philosophies there is hope that Zimmer can be that front end guy the Front Office has desperately been looking for.

Dan Ware (2):  There is no reason at all to not be excited about Kyle Zimmer.  Our 2012 first round draft pick has already made a name for himself as the top pitching prospect in the Royals organization.  Needless to say, I'm very much looking forward to the day he gets the call to Northwest Arkansas. You can count on me being at his first start!

Zimmer, 20, showed great promise last year in his professional debut season with the Arizona League Royals and Kane County.  While going a combined 3-3 , he compiled a solid 2.04/2.32 ERA/FIP, good K/BB walk ratio of 29/8, allowing batters to hit just .267, and giving up only 1 homerun.  For those that haven't fully educated themselves on Kyle, he has a plus-plus fastball ranging from 95-99 mph that has good late movement.  Also in his repertoire, he has a curveball that's also considered MLB-ready, who Jason Parks said the other day on Twitter that his "hammer curve was at 81 mph; easy plus".  His changeup is considered above-average, ranking as 55 on a 20/80 scale from Baseball America.

Zimmer will start off in Wilmington as the leader of a potent rotation for the Blue Rocks including Sam Selman, Kyle Smith, and recently assigned John Lamb.  Assistant GM for the Royals, J.J. Picollo, stated Wednesday night during the Royals broadcast that Zimmer most likely will see time in Northwest Arkansas this season. 

Total Points: 110

Royals Take Kyle Zimmer

There you have it. As I'm sure you are aware, the Royals took Kyle Zimmer with the fifth overall pick in the 2012 draft. I'm sure you have all read up on Zimmer but just briefly I'll give you a few of the highlights. Zimmer is just 20 years old and has only been pitching for about a year and a half. I suspect this is part of the draw for Kansas City as they like the opportunity to shape pitchers.

Zimmer has upper 90s heat, with perhaps the best curveball in the draft. He has a change up that many believe could also develop into a plus pitch. In 2012, Zimmer went 5-3 with a 2.85 and a 104:17 K:BB. The Royals have roughly $6.2 million in the draft, $3.5 million of which is designated for the 5th pick of the draft.

This brings me to my next point. Thanks to Houston shocking the baseball industry with their selection of Carlos Correa, Mark Appel was available to Kansas City at 5. Appel entered the draft at as a what many thought the top college arm and clear top two selection. Instead the Royals passed on him to select Kyle Zimmer.

The Royals claim that Zimmer was always the top pitcher on their board, and if that is the truth than that is awesome. However, another benefit to selecting Zimmer over Appel in my mind is the dollars the Royals saved from their draft budget. Considering that Appel entered the draft expecting a bonus around $7 million, it isn't hard to imagine that it would be tough for him to accept half that amount. So instead of blowing their entire draft budget on one guy, the Royals will hopefully sign Zimmer around $3.5 and still have plenty of money to spend on the remainder of their picks, effectively diversifying their draft portfolio.

Think of it this way, if you had x amount to spend on dinner. Would you chose to eat a Filet Mignon, with crackers, cheese and Welch's grape juice? Or would you cut some cost on the steak, buy a KC Strip and surround it with mashed potatoes, steamed vegetables, and a bottle of Boulevard? Both steaks are undoubtedly delicious and in the second option you get the side items and beverage to properly complete the meal. Of course if you believe in the Royals scouting department, you just got the best of both worlds.

Personally, I put faith in the Royals scouting and player development. Earlier today I didn't include Kyle Zimmer in my top five draft board, but make no mistake I couldn't be happier. This is how the draft goes and I know that the individuals making the decisions are light years more knowledgeable than myself on the subject and prospects.

I'm currently located in the northwest part of the country, so here's to hoping I get the chance to see Kyle Zimmer make a start with Idaho Falls.