Northwest Arkansas Naturals 2014 Preview

Defense

LF - Whit Merrifield

CF - Lane Adams

RF - Jorge Bonifacio

3B - Cheslor Cuthbert

SS - Orlando Calixte

2B - Justin Trapp*

1B - Mark Threlkeld*

C - Juan Graterol

Rotation

Jason Adam

Greg Billo*

Tim Melville

Noel Arguelles

Sugar Ray Marimon

Bench

C - Micah Gibbs*, C - Parker Morin*, IF - Angel Franco, IF - Yowill Espinal, OF - Ethan Chapman*,  OF - Roman Hernandez, OF - Edinson Rincon

Bullpen

Scott Alexander, Angel Baez*, Malcom Culver, Cody Fassold*, Andy Ferguson, Hassan Pena*, J.C. Sulbaran, Andrew Triggs

Notes:

• There are 9 new faces that will put on a Naturals uniform for the 2014 season.  One of the more notable debuts is 23 year old pitcher Greg Billo.
• To begin the year, the roster doesn't look all that great to those who pay attention to prospects and all things Minor Leagues, but with a fully loaded Wilmington Blue Rocks roster, there will be some big name players that could easily arrive in Springdale by mid-season (Dozier, Starling, Mondesi, Almonte, Manaea, etc.)
• Top Prospect Kyle Zimmer, who ended last year's season with the Naturals, will stay in Arizona for extended Spring Training to get some work in while recovering from biceps tendinitis in his shoulder.  He is expected to join the Naturals on May 20th.
• Jason Adam returns to the Naturals after throwing 144 innings in 2013.  Although Jason posted a career high K rate, he's coming off a disappointing year on the bump as he also logged career highs in ERA (5.13) and BB/9 (3.38).  As of now, his ceiling is that of a back-end starter.  His pitches are solid, but lack the flash as they once did back in his Instructional League days.  His fastball velocity has dipped the past couple seasons and if he can somehow work his way back to his rookie year throwing 98 mph, his status has a rotation candidate will rise drastically.
• Adam won't be the only pitcher to watch at Arvest Ballpark.  Newcomer Greg Billo makes his Double-A debut coming off a successful 2013 campaign as he worked his back from Tommy John surgery.  In 40 innings for Lexington, he posted a 1.35 ERA, his best since 2011, 38 K's, 13 BB and 6 ER, along with a FIP of 2.93.  
• Ranked as #4 in the Royals' Top 10 Prospects from Baseball America, RF Jorge Bonifacio will come back to Springdale for a second season only because age is definitely on his side.  The 20 year old has a pure swing with a lot of power potential.  Between Wilmington and a short stint with the Naturals in '13, his slash line was .298/.372/.429 with 4 HR and 55 RBI.  Scouts still say the power is there and will arrive soon.  It will be nice to see Bonifacio display that power in a full season at Arvest Ballpark.

Prospect Countdown: #11 Orlando Calixte

11. Orlando Calixte Short Stop

baseballtucson.com

Age: 22
Position: SS
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 160
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed by the Kansas City Royals as a non-drafted free agent in 2010                 From: Santo Domingo, DR

2013 Rank: 10

2012 Rank: 26

2011 Rank: 36

Landon Adams (12): Let's start with what I said regarding Orlando Calixte in last year's prospect countdown:

"I'm not necessarily saying that Calixte's 2012 success was a fluke, but on the surface it appears his line was driven by good fortune. Calixte has the upside and tools to be a very dangerous hitter, so either way let's hope that the good fortune can parlay itself into a confidence builder for Calixte to build on moving forward. Calixte could open the year in either Wilmington or Northwest Arkansas. I wouldn't be shocked if he took off in 2013 and found himself on the edge of the game's top 100 prospects heading into 2014. "

It does appear that his strong 2012 performance could have been luck driven. I still maintain that the raw tools are there for Calixte to develop into a dangerous hitter. As for the final part of my assessment, well as you can see things haven't panned out that way for the Dominican short stop.

I still like Calixte as a prospect and I was glad to see the Royals moving him around the diamond in the second half of the 2013 season. Calixte has a strong arm and excellent range and he should continue to see time at short, second, and third this season. I'd even prefer to see his versatility taken a step farther and allow him to log some time in the outfield.

Calixte mashed left handed pitching in 2013. Given that and his defensive abilities I think there is a pretty safe bet that he can carve out at least some sort of career as a utility man with good pop from the bench. On the other hand, I still like the upside and for the second year in a row I'm going to predict a big year for him in Northwest Arkansas. With age on his side, there's still a shot that he could shoot up some prospect rankings before he eventually hits Kansas City.

Paden Bennett (10): Calixte as a 21 year old shortstop spent most of 2013 with Northwest Arkansas.  Calixte struggled with his transition to AA Northwest Arkansas and compiled a line of .250/.312/.370 with 8 homers.  However he did post his second highest line drive % of his career (14.2%).  Calixte is a toolsy shortstop with solid power but hits the ball on the ground too much.  Calixte has a career GB% of 49.1 which is pretty high.  I look for Calixte to adjust to AA pitching this season and show some promise with the bat.

Joe Cox (16):  Calixte spent his entire age 21 season playing predominately short stop for Northwest Arkansas.  Coming off an impressive offensive showing in 2012, moving up a level did prove to be a tough transition for Calixte at the plate, but not without showing some promise.  Calixte is widely considered to be able to stick at shortstop and spent nearly the entire season playing the position.  Offensively, his numbers did decrease across the board, but considering his age/ level and the change in talent he was facing, it would be wrong to call Calixte 2013 disappointing. 

In 536 PA, Calixte had an OPS of .680 which included 8 home runs and 14 stolen bases (though he was caught 11 times).  He still showed a propensity to strike out (131 K’s), nor does he walk much (42 BB’s).  I would venture to guess that Calixte will try his hand in AA for a second season, and it would be nice to see an improvement in the power department, something that he has flashed as having above average potential.  There doesn’t seem to be a question of Calixte being able to handle short, but I would not be surprised if he saw time at other positions to increase his flexibility, as he projects as a major league utility player. 

Dan Ware (10):  Calixte, now 22 years old, took a step in the wrong direction on our Prospect Countdown, due to a dismal 2013 season at the plate.  For the Naturals, he hit .250/.312/.368 with 8 HR, nearly half the amount he compiled last season.  Orlando has always been a groundball hitter (career GB% is 49.1), but an issue with that is his line drive rates.  Although he did raise it slightly from last year, 12.2% to 14.2%, he was still below Texas League average.  Along with his meager LD%, his BABIP tendency kept its course from last season, as it was .325, a much higher value than the TL average.  Apparently, his good luck followed him from Wilmington.

On a positive note, Calixte's glove improved tremendously at shortstop.  In 2012, he committed 46 errors between his stints with Kane County and Wilmington.  Last season, his total of 18 was less than his overall with Wilmington (21).  I would say that's an improvement.  With good range, superb hands, and an above average arm, he has the makeup to be a solid SS, but with his athleticism, can make a switch to another position if it were needed.  I suspect Calixte will start the 2014 season with the Naturals for a second season.  He has average power for his position, but needs to work on being patient at the plate and driving the ball into the gaps.

Nicholas Ian Allen (--): It is difficult for me to get a read on Orlando Calixte. Of course, he is yet another very talented Royals infielder. He is very slim, but has played in 130+ games for the second consecutive season. Also, it is well known he can turn around a fastball with sneaky power. After looking through the numbers, here are some observations from Calixte's 2013 season:

• Calixte had extreme splits, having pounded lefties to the tune of .324/.383/.533 in 105 ABs while struggling against right handers .230/.293/.322. He drove in more than one-third of his runs against left-handed pitchers.
• He both started the season poorly and ended poorly hitting under .200 in April, August and in the Arizona Fall League while slugging under .300 in April and August and .309 in the AFL.
• Shows his aggression through a .326/.389/.500 line leading off an inning and .303/.342/.422 in the first inning of games (he hit 2nd in the lineup in all but 3 ABs)
• He struggled mightily in RBI situations - .208/.300/.305 with runners on base and .210/.306/.295 with RISP. The numbers were slightly worse with two outs in those situations.

In all, Calixte gets lost for me between Colon knocking on the door of the big leagues and Raul A. Mondesi providing such intriguing youth and upside in the levels below. Even Humberto Arteaga gets me more excited. Turning just 22 years old this season and likely to spend a chunk of the year in Triple-A, Calixte still seems extremely raw to have played as much professional baseball as he has. If I were to have ranked Calixte, he would likely fall somewhere in the mid-20s. I could be dead wrong, and while he certainly has a lot of potential, there just seems to be so much work to be done for him to reach the Major Leagues, much less contribute. 
  

Total Points: 76

Prospect Countdown: #10 Orlando Calixte

10. Orlando Calixte Short Stop

milb.com

Age: 21
Position: SS
Height: 5'11"
Weight: 160
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed as International Free Agent in 2010
From: Santo Domingo, Domican Republic



Paden Bennett (7):  Orlando Calixte is an exciting 21 year old shortstop because he has great range on defense but also because he has some pop in his bat.  Calixte hit 14 homers in 532 at bats, now those aren't eye opening numbers but they still make you think that Calixte has the ability to hit for some power.  The weakness of Calixte right now is he strikes out too much and doesn't walk enough.  That's not a good combination, but hes young.  Calixte has plenty of time to improve his contact rate and walk rate.

Joe Cox (16): Orlando Calixte is an exciting 21 year old shortstop acquired in 2010 from the Dominican Republic.  Defensively, Calixte is said to poccess the instincts, arm and range to stick at shortstop.  With the bat, Calixte shows some raw skills but needs to improve his pitch selection. 

Calixte split 2012 between A and high A and hit a combined 14 home runs over 532 at bats.  He also had a .759 OPS; the downside of his season being that he walked only 36 times while compiling 109 strike outs.  An advantage that Calixte has is that he has plenty of time to develop while Alcides Escobar handles shortstop at the major league level.  That is a nice luxury for the Royals to take advantage of, because if Calixte does improve his plate skills they have a plus defensive shortstop with some power that could potentially start in the majors by 2016 or so.

Damion Mandalas (11):  I'm a big fan of Calixte and at this point considering his upside he could be the most under the radar talent in the system. Calixte currently plays short stop and while he has shown strong range, he has also displayed the propensity to catch the error bug. In fact, last season alone he committed 46 errors in 556 opportunities.

Like Alfonso Soriano, who Calixte has been compared to on numerous occasions, a change in positions could eventually be in order. Calixte has the athleticism to shift to second or could eventually find a home in the outfield, much like Soriano and Upton.

One thing I do want to point out in regards to Calixte is his low line drive percentages in 2012. In 62 games for Kane County, Calixte's line drive percentage was several points lower than league average, while his BABIP came in nearly 50 points higher. This trend continued in Wilmington, where his line drive percentage of 10.8% was nearly 3% below the average mark, but his BABIP was once again nearly 50 points higher.

I'm not necessarily saying that Calixte's 2012 success was a fluke, but on the surface it appears his line was driven by good fortune. Calixte has the upside and tools to be a very dangerous hitter, so either way let's hope that the good fortune can parlay itself into a confidence builder for Calixte to build on moving forward. Calixte could open the year in either Wilmington or Northwest Arkansas. I wouldn't be shocked if he took off in 2013 and found himself on the edge of the game's top 100 prospects heading into 2014. 

Dan Ware (17):  The man with many names, Calixte has finally got the weight off his shoulders.  His first 2 seasons as a teenager hit him fairly rough, to say the least.  Although being an 18 year old living in a new country on your own can play a role, Orlando has easily put those days behind him.  Last season, he started off with Kane County in the Midwest League.  While mashing 10 HR and driving in 34 runs, his BA and OBP were well below the league averages, but kept his K% down which is a plus.  Moving on up to Wilmington half way through the season, he enjoyed great success at the plate by boosting his batting average up 40 points compared to his average with the Cougars, which definitely was a confidence booster. It would be nice to see Orlando get a few more PA in Wilmington to start off 2013.  No need to rush the kid right now.

Total Points: 73

Prospect Countdown: #26 Orlando Calixte

#26 Orlando Calixte

Age: 19
Position: SS
Height: 5-11
Weight: 160
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Signed as International Free Agent in February, 2010
From: Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic




Orlando Calixte finally has cast aside his invisibility cloak and stepped up into the light for Royals fans. After identity issues forced his career to start late, the Royals swooped in an signing him for a seven figure bonus in 2010. On the Hot Stove show two years ago Dayton Moore stated that with the signing of Calixte, in addition to Cheslor Cuthbert and Noel Arguelles, the Royals had nabbed three of the top five international free agents.

Of the three seven-figure Latin American shortstop signees, Calixte has the highest offensive upside projecting to hit for both average and some power. He's also an average runner and his frame should allow him to stick at shortstop.

At first glance Calixte's 2011 numbers are somewhat disappointing, but there are several things that must be remembers. First Calixte is just a teenager. It isn't rare at all for teenage hitters to struggle in the Midwest League, which tends to have a lot of college talent and is a pitcher friendly league. Also, 2011 was just Calixte's second season on American soil. One can imagine that the transition from life in the Dominican to America would be difficult enough without the expectations that follow a high dollar professional ball player.

As for Calixte's numbers, well I find his batting average to unindicative of his true success. The league average Midwest League average is .250, while Calixte came in at just .208. But more showing was Calixte's league average line drive percentage. Given Calixte's slightly above average ground ball percentage, I would come to the conclusion that in a league full of hitters in their twenties Calixte performed much more like a league average hitter than the .208 hitter that appears in the stat column.

In 2009, there was a 19-year-old middle of diamond hitter that was making the transition from Latin America life to life in the United States. It was his first crack at full season ball and after hitting .189/.230/.236 his prospect luster took a dive. Two years later Salvador Perez .331/.361/.473 in Kansas City. I don't expect Calixte to make the same quantum leap, but there are things to like about Calixte's 2011 campaign and still plenty of reasons to be optimistic for the prospect's future.

Despite Perez's Midwest League struggles the Royals assigned him to Wilmington the following season. My guess is the Royals don't take the same aggressive approach in 2012 with Calixte and instead he will make a return trip to Kane County. However, I wouldn't rule out the possibility that Calixte opens the season with the Blue Rocks.

Picture credit: MWLTraveler.com