Minor League Update - Northwest Arkansas Naturals

The Royals' Texas League affiliate is off to a rough start to 2014, sitting at 4-13 and in last place in the North Division. The club trails first place Springfield (STL) by five games, and is winless at home in seven tries thus far.

Among the biggest struggles for Northwest Arkansas is a 5.77 team ERA, which is a full two runs higher than the next closest club. Opponents have scored a staggering 115 runs – 39 more than the second worst team. Perhaps worse, 22 of those runs are unearned. Naturals pitchers have walked 81 hitters and have thrown 17 wild pitches, both the most in the eight-team Texas League.

As a team, the Naturals are hitting just .236/.323/.328 and have scored only 62 runs in 2014, the league’s second worst mark. Northwest Arkansas batters have hit just eight home runs, which also ranks second lowest in the league.

Individual Hitting

 

MiLB.com

Who’s Hot:

After going 1-for-16 to start the season, Jorge Bonifacio is now fourth in the Texas League with 12 RBI, just three off the pacesetter. The outfielder has five multi-hit ballgames in his last 10 starts and is hitting .310/.370/.429 since April 11. In all, Bonifacio has one home run with a line of .239/.338/.358.

Infield prospect Cheslor Cuthbert has a team-high 17 hits and 12 walks and ranks second on the club with seven RBI. In all, he is hitting .279/.392/.361.

Whit Merrifield is tied for the league lead with six doubles, three of which have come in his last four games. Over that period, the second baseman/left fielder has three multi-hit games and five RBI.

Who’s Not:

Lane Adams is on the rise with five hits in his last three games, but is still hitting just .224/.329/.284 in 74 plate appearances across 17 games.

Individual Pitching

Who’s Hot:

23-year old pitching prospect Sam Selman tossed five innings in his season debut April 11, in which he allowed just one unearned run. The lefty allowed just two hits and walked four. Across two starts, Selman is currently 0-1 with a 2.79 ERA.

Two of Tim Melville’s three starts have been very impressive. The 24-year old tossed four scoreless innings April 4 and five scoreless April 15. He allowed a combined three hits in the two outings. In all, the right-hander has a 2.77 ERA in 13 innings and has held opponents to a .133 batting average.

Relievers Cody Fassold and Andrew Triggs both have ERAs under 1.80 in six appearances apiece.

Who’s Not:

Basically, everyone else. Specifically:

Prospect Jason Adam has lost three games, tied for the most in the Texas League.

He was roughed up in his first start of the season, surrendering eight runs (six earned) in just three innings against Midland (OAK). He followed that outing with a two-hit performance and one earned run across four strong innings also against the RockHounds , but then surrendered ten hits to Springfield in his last start. The Cardinals score five runs, four of which were earned. Opponents are hitting .388 against Adam with right-handed hitters scorching him for a line of .545/.519/.773 in 23 April plate appearances.

Angel Baez has struck out 17 hitters in 10.2 innings, which ranks among the league’s leaders in K/9. Unfortunately, he has a 10.97 ERA this year across six relief appearances.

Noel Arguelles is tied for the league’s most walks with 13 and has a 14.09 ERA in his first 7.2 innings across six appearances.

Prospect Countdown: #10 Sam Selman

10. Sam Selman Left Handed Pitcher

milb.com

Age: 23
Position: LHP
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 165
B/T: R/L
Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd Round of the 2012 Amateur Draft
From: Austin, Texas

2013 Rank: 8

Landon Adams (10): Like fellow Royal Revival authors Joe and Nick, I was able to see Sam Selman in a couple of starts during his Pioneer League stint in 2012. At the time it was apparent that Selman has no business pitching against Pioneer League hitters as he dominated the competition. Among pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched the former Vanderbilt Commodore ranked first in the league in a variety of categories: ERA (1.56), SIERA (1.91), GB% (62.7%), K% (36.3%), K/9 (13.28), H/9 (6.71), FIP (1.56), opponent batting average (.204), and opponent slugging percentage (.276). Overall not a bad debut for the lefty.

In his second season as a Royal, Selman was skipped a level to high-A Wilmington. While the numbers weren't as strong in the Carolina League as they were in the Pioneer League, there is still a lot to like about the Austin, Texas native. While he didn't lead the league in so many categories he ranked very high among pitchers with 100+ innings any several: K% (4th), HR/9 (2nd), K/9 (4th), opponent batting average (2nd), opponent slug (2nd), opponent OPS (3rd).

Selman's problems in 2013, were a direct result of a spike in walks. Selman has a bit of a hitch in his delivery that gives him excellent deception, but also messes with his control. His has an excellent fastball and a dynamite slider. If Selman can keep down the walks he'll be a force. I'm still very high on Selman, but if I was a betting man I don't think I'd bet against him winding up in the bullpen. For now though I am optimistic that he can refine his control enough to develop into a number 3 starter.

Selman will likely open the year in Northwest Arkansas, but it also wouldn't surprise me to see him head to Wilmington, with eyes toward a quick promotion after he shows some improved control. 

Paden Bennett (16): Selman comes in at #10 on our countdown; I think it is pretty clear that we all have high hopes for this kid.  Selman had an impressive season last year while pitching for Wilmington where he hurled 125 innings gave up just 88 hits and struck out 128.  However, there was one negative that stuck out last season and that was his walks.  Selman's BB/9 was 6.1, he walked 85 in those 125 innings.  

He has the stuff to become a plus pitcher in the majors but until he really figures out to locate all his pitches and limit the walks.  This guy has big upside and I can't wait to see him in Northwest Arkansas this season.  I'm looking for Selman to continue to make strides and move through the system quickly.

Joe Cox (11):  All of us at Royal Revival raved over Sam Selman in last year’s top prospect list, where he landed as the number 8 prospect.  This year the 23 year old lefty comes in at number 10, after spending his first full season with the organization.  

He spent the 2013 season in Wilmington, where he had 27 starts.  It is not hard to see the areas where Selman excelled, as well as the areas in which he struggled.  The struggle was singular: control.  Selman had a BB/9 of 6.10, walking 85 batters over 125 innings.  He added to these struggles by hitting 14 batters and throwing 12 wild pitches.  That is a severe lack of control that will obviously need to improve.  

As for what he did well, for me it all starts with his ability to generate ground balls and limit home runs.  So far he has allowed four home runs over 185 innings in professional ball.  He also was able to strike out more than a batter per inning last season.  Selman is able to throw his fastball in the low to mid 90’s and has breaking pitches with plus potential, though they need polishing.  

Selman has the ability to reach the majors, whether it be as a reliever or a starter.  From some scouting reports, it sounds like he has a delivery that is hard to repeat, which is probably what his leading to his control issues.  If he can figure this out he could become a reliable piece in the Royals pitching staff in the future. 

Dan Ware (9):  Coming in at #10 on our countdown, this young man is one reason I'll be going to a few more Naturals games this summer.  Selman, 23, has 185.2 innings in 40 games under his belt, for which he certainly hasn't disappointed.  Although, he does have a couple kinks he needs to work out that were very apparent last season with Wilmington. 

Sam features a low to mid 90's fastball that can touch 98 and also possesses a filthy slider he'll use from time to time.  He does have a changeup, but needs worked on this Spring.  If that can be developed even more, he'll be dangerous on the mound.

As Joe touched on, his biggest problem last year was his command.  His BB rates nearly doubled from 2012 (BB/9 at 6.2 and BB% of 15.3%).  If this keeps up, this issue will only hinder his chances of reaching the potential of a mid-rotation pitcher.  I've read about his delivery, which seems to be a little unorthodox and could be the culprit to his control problem.  Regardless, I do believe he's earned the promotion to Northwest Arkansas, but that's certainly up to the organization on whether he needs to a few starts in Wilmington before heading to the Texas League.  

Nicholas Ian Allen (--): Sam Selman is one of the few prospects on this list I have had the fortune of seeing up close and personal, and boy what a show he put on. Facing the Helena Brewers for the second consecutive start, Selman shoved it for six innings, striking out 10. He allowed just one run on two hits and two walks. That start was just one example of the dominant season Selman had. He was easily the best pitcher in the Pioneer League that season and would have had an ERA under 2.00 if not for one bad outing in August in which he allowed five earned runs. It was his only appearance in which he gave up more than two earned runs (and that happened only once). 

Selman had a somewhat more challenging season in the Carolina League in 2013, but he really excelled down the stretch. In the second half of the season, Selman was 6-4 with a 2.22 ERA in 14 starts and held opponents to a .178 average. He was nearly unhittable in the month of August, allowing just a .121 average against in 31.2 innings. Included in those numbers were his second-to-last start of the year in which he held Potomac hitless for eight innings. He allowed two walks and K'd 11 Nationals. In all, he was no slouch from start to end as he held hitters below the Mendoza line for the season.

As noted, Selman struggles with command. But he is funky. Filthy, even. As he continues to bulk up (he has added about 30 pounds to his 6'3" frame since becoming a professional and is well on his way to 200) injury will be his biggest concern. He has been very dependable so far, so let's hope the weight will continue to make him stronger. He is seemingly ticketed for the big leagues in a couple of years, though time will tell if he is solid enough to make it as a starter. 

Total Points: 78

Wilmington Blue Rocks Preview

Projected Lineup

2B - Justin Trapp

SS - Jack Lopez

3B - Cheslor Cuthbert

RF - Jorge Bonifacio

CF - Lane Adams

1B - Murray Watts

DH - Daniel Mateo

LF - Tim Ferguson

C - Parker Morin

Rotation

Kyle Zimmer

Sam Selman

Kyle Smith

John Lamb

Angel Baez

Bench

C Kenny Swab, IF Kenneth Diekroger, IF Nick DelGuidice, OF Geulin Beltre, OF Chris Elder

Bullpen

Antonio Cruz, Robinson Yambati, Aaron Brooks, Malcom Culver, Cody Fassold, Kellen Moen, 

Spencer Patton, Andrew Tiggs

Notes on the 2013 Blue Rocks:

•  The middle of the lineup will be one of the more popular topics regarding Wilmington to start this season off.  Cuthbert is looking for a bounce back year, after hitting .240/.296/.322 with an ISO of .082.  Cheslor's GB% was 46.7 while his BB% was 7.2.  Although his K% was well below the Carolina League average, if he can work on a line-drive swing and being a little more patient at the plate, Cuthbert we'll get back on track in no time.
• Jorge Bonifacio, the 19 year old "not so athletic younger brother of Emilio" and #5 on our 2013 Prospect List, held his own for sure at the plate in Kane County last season, hitting .282 with 10 HR and 61 RBI, not as pretty as Twins top prospect Miguel Sano (28 HR 100 RBI), but still very promising for the time being and his age.  The C.L. is known for being a "pitcher's league" so hopefully Bonifacio can keep up the pace from his Kane County days.
• Jason Adam, 23, has sort of slipped off our radar, but still remains a prospect for now.  Last season, starting off with Kane County, was a solid bounce back from an ugly 2011 season.  Once joining the Blue Rocks, his batting average fell nearly 60 points compared to his K.C. appearances.  If Jason wants to remain in the organization, he'll need to get it going in Wilmington before it's too late.

• Murray Watts, 27, is definitely on the scolding hot seat at this point.  Last year he compiled a line of .221/.299/.394 in 30 games for the Blue Rocks, hitting only 4 HR with an ISO of .173.  The problem with Murray is he doesn't make contact well at all and doesn't have good patience at the plate, striking out 35.9% of the time while walking only 10.3% of his ABs.  This will most likely be the final year for Murray in the Royals organization if he doesn't show signs of improvement.

• The rotation will definitely be the highlight of Wilmington to kick off the season this Thursday, April 4th.  With four of our own Top 15 prospects in the rotation alone, Royals fans will want to keep tabs on the Blue Rocks for a while.  Kyle Zimmer headlines the staff, as he comes off an exciting rookie season in Kane County.  A workhorse who will give you lots of innings, like former Blue Rock Jason Adam, should split time between Wilmington and Northwest Arkansas, if all goes to plan.  Sam Selman and Kyle Smith join Zimmer in their quest, alongside rehabbing John Lamb, who is back to full health, but needs some time to regain some of his velocity.  

• Another guy to look after his reliever Robinson Yambati.  At 22, he has a three quarter arm delivery, a low 90's fastball, and an incredible GB% of 65.6, thanks to his ability to keep the ball low in the strike zone.  If he continues his success from 2012, he'll be in Northwest Arkansas before too long, and possibly even Omaha before season's end.

Prospect Countdown: #8 Sam Selman

8. Sam Selman Left Handed Pitcher

www.milb.com

Age: 22
Position: LHP
Height: 6'3"
Weight: 165
B/T: R/L
Acquired: Drafted in the 2nd Round of the 2012 Amateur Draft
From: Austin, TX



Paden Bennett (15):  Look out for Sam Selman.  This guy has great stuff and can get the strikeout when he needs it (or even when he doesnt need it).  He isn't just a strikeout guy though, he has the ability to get batters to hit the ball on the ground which appeals to any major league team.  Ground ball pitchers can always find a place at the big league level and Selman can do that.  I look for Selman to move very rapidly through the system.  He should dominate in Wilmington with Kyle Zimmer, and Kyle Smith.  What a fun trio of arms they will be to watch.

Joe Cox (8): The 22 year old lefty Sam Selman is one of my favorite prospects in the Royals system.  While working in the Pioneer League I consistently found Selman in the leaderboards in most pitching statistics.  Drafted in the second round of last year’s draft, Selman signed quickly enough to get 12 starts in rookie ball with Idaho Falls.  Selman was a ground ball fiend, generating tons of ground balls and allowing only one home run.  Selman also dominated with strike outs, getting 89 K’s in only 60 innings.

While some scouts see Selman ending up in the bullpen, it should be interesting to see how he develops as a starter in the near future.  Having turned 22 last winter and coming from college, Selman could be a candidate to move quickly through the system.  Should he be able to stay healthy during a full season of professional ball as a starter, Selman could be a fast riser and an exciting arm to monitor.

Damion Mandalas (9):  After watching Selman last season in the Pioneer League, I came to one conclusion: he had no business pitching at that level. Quite simply he was way to advanced and his stuff was simply too dominate for Pioneer League hitters to pose any sort of a threat.

I spoke with some Idaho Falls personnel and was told that the reason for his assignment and lack of promotion was because the Royals wanted to keep close tabs on his workload due to a concern about his arm action. This over course led me to internalize a couple of questions.

1. Why is Selman's workload easier to monitor in the Pioneer League than the Midwest League?
2. How worried about the Royals about Selman's arm action and if they are very worried then why did they draft him with a second round pick?

My best guess at the first of these questions is that Rookie League baseball lends itself better to limiting workload than full season ball. The Chukars were out of the Pioneer League race very quickly in both halfs and I don't think even optimistically, the Royals expected Selman to dominate like he did.

Selman does have a bit of a hitch in his delivery. Obviously, the major con here is that the delivery is tougher to repeat. Also, with more moving parts, there is a greater concern that arm problems could arise. However, the hitch also grants Selman a bit of deception that enables his 92-96 mph fastball to play up at an even higher level. 

Given the stuff I saw this summer, it is hard for me to imagine a scenario in which Selman doesn't at least reach the Majors as a reliever. However, if his change up can come along even just a little bit he could be a very strong starter given his plus fastball and plus slider.

Dan Ware (9):  I know I'm repeating myself over and over, but Selman is definitely a pitcher to keep an eye on, and I am not the only one who is saying this.  Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star had a little Q&A last month (Link) and mentioned four pitchers to watch this season, including Selman: Jason Adam, Miguel Almonte, and Kyle Smith.  Not a bad list right there.

Sam had a phenomenal pro debut with Idaho Falls, compiling a 5-4 record with a 2.09 ERA in 60.1 IP, striking out 89 batters while walking just 22.  His groundball and flyball percentages were very impressive, 62.7% and 11.9% respectively. I'd like to add that he gave up just one HR, and that is pretty promising.  I read on twitter that his most recent outing in ST came on March 14th as he threw three scoreless innings, fastball touching 89-92 mph, 93 a few times and 94 once, while throwing a "quality" curveball.  Selman should be apart of a very solid rotation in Wilmington this season, along side Kyle Zimmer and Kyle Smith, and if they are to move up to Northwest Arkansas, this will be a very fun summer.

Total Points: 83

Seeing a Selman Start

Tonight I had the privilege of watching the Idaho Falls Chukars, and I was definitely pleased that I had the opportunity to watch 2012 first round pick Sam Selman on the hill. Selman, a lefty, entered the draft as a projectable arm but whose numbers didn't match up with the pure stuff. He was said to have an electric fastball as well as a slider that at times also was a plus pitch. Tonight, he didn't disappoint.

One thing I noticed immediately about Selman is that he has a bit of a hitch on the back end. If you are familiar with the whipping action that Aaron Crow has, imagine that on a lanky lefty. It isn't quite as pronounced, but it is noticeable. The lefty also clearly has a dynamite fastball and it didn't take opposing hitters long to take notice; the first hitter of the game saw three fastballs on the corners and never even took the bat off his shoulders.

Throughout the first three innings, Selman was lights out. He threw 39 pitches, and 26 of them were strikes. However, in the fourth Selman seemingly lost his command. He began the inning by throwing six straight balls, but thanks to a double play he was able to get out of a jam only allowing one run. Had Elier Hernandez not missed on a diving attempt at a shallow fly ball, Selman likely would have escaped the inning totally unscathed despite throwing 11 balls out of 17 pitches.

It was from there on that I was really impressed by Selman. Rather than fumbling around for the next couple of innings, Selman regathered himself and proved to be just as dominate over the last two frames as he was the first three. There are no radar readings in Kindrick, but I heard that Selman was sitting in the low 90s.

He struck out several batters on a very nice slider, but at times he failed to get on top of the ball and would cause the catcher to reach high or wide to prevent it from going to the backstop. Quite frankly, Selman's fastball command was so good that he could've gotten through the evening on the fastball alone. It is for this reason that I believe he needs to be at a higher level than he is currently playing. He has been well seasoned by the SEC and he needs opposing hitters to challenge his fastball more than they are capable at the Rookie level.

Selman finished the night with 6 ip, 2 hits, 1 earned run, 2 walks, and 10 strikeouts.

*I have notes on several other players and will be watching Idaho Falls all weekend, so be sure to check back for some more insights.