The State of the Royals Outfield

As Royals nation collectively awaits the official results of the MRI on Alex Gordon's left leg, we are left to ponder what this means for the team moving forward. If the early indications are true that it is a grade 3 groin strain, then (based off a limited amount of research) Gordon could be sidelined between 6 and 12+ weeks. So let's look at how that breaks down on the calendar:

6 weeks - August 19 

7 weeks - August 26

8 weeks - September 2

9 weeks  - September 9

10 weeks  - September 16

11 weeks  - September 23

12 weeks - September 30

Obviously, that's not a good situation. Another note is that the final game of the 2014 Minor League season on September 16. The importance of this is that if Gordon winds up being out 9+ weeks, then it is extremely unlikely that the Royals would have the ability to send their All-Star left fielder on rehab assignment. If Gordon winds up being out 9+ weeks, the Royals would have to reacclimate him through batting practice and a careful increase in playing time at the Major League level. 

It is not impossible to get a guy back to speed without a rehab assignment, but it does make it a bit more difficult. Not to mention the possibility that the Royals could be playing in extremely important games over the last several weeks of the season. 

Here is how I see it. If Gordon takes 9 weeks or less to return, the Royals are able to send him on rehab to the Minors and have the best chance of reintegrating him into the lineup in an effective manner. If Gordon takes between 9 and 11 weeks to return to game shape, the Royals have a shot of getting him back for October. If Gordon takes 12 or more weeks before he is ready for game action, the Royals will find themselves in an incredibly difficult spot of whether or not he should be included on a postseason roster when he has hardly played for two and a half months. 

Long story short, if the news comes back that Gordon has sustained a grade 3 groin strain, then the team must approach this as though they will not see Gordon again this season. Prior to the injury, I had enough faith in Jarrod Dyson that I didn't believe the Royals needed to acquire a corner outfielder to replace the lackadaisical Alex Rios. Now, I believe it is quite certain that the Royals should seek out replacement opportunities. 

I view this situation in two parts. First, there is the 2015 problem. Rios is terrible and now Gordon is hurt. The Royals need to fill two outfield spots and they have a solution for one (Dyson). The second part of this is 2016. While the injury will increase the likelihood that Alex Gordon returns to Kansas City for the 2016 season, there is still a very good chance that he departs. If this is the case then the Royals return just Lorenzo Cain, Jarrod Dyson, and Paulo Orlando. Even if Dyson proves that he can play everyday in 2016, the Royals still need another starting outfielder. 

If you find an outfielder now, you get the benefit of improving the roster for the remainder of 2015 by pushing aside Rios, while also getting a step ahead in setting the 2016 roster. If by chance the Royals are able to bring back Gordon for 2016, then they again can push Dyson into a rotation role as the fourth outfielder and will be even stronger a unit for the 2016 campaign.

It is my opinion that the outfielder the Royals need will come via trade. Some would argue that there are capable internal replacements and here is how I would counter on each of those options.

Paulo Orlando - Fourth Outfielder

Brett Eibner - The former second round pick has some promise. He is 26, extremely streaky at the plate, plays good defense, and has a good arm. He is also hitting .292/.349/491 in Omaha. There is a part of me that believes he could grab and handle an everyday job. However, I also know that Werner Park heavily favors right handed power and as a 26 year old, he needs to prove it in the Majors. The scenario that I prefer is that the Royals acquire a starting RF and Eibner gets called up in replace of Orlando or as a 5th outfielder. Given his power from the right side, I think he complements the roster better than Orlando. There is already a ton of speed, but a power bat off the bench would be a bonus and Eibner could even wind up in the small side of a platoon with Dyson.

Whit Merrifield - Based on reports it sounds like Merrifield could be the guy to replace Gordon on the roster. The former 9th round pick is an easy player to root for, but he is 26 and is currently slugging .392 in a hitter friendly league. He gets bonus points for being able to play both outfield and second base, but I don't see the South Carolina product as an answer.

Moises Sierra/Reymond Fuentes/Jose Martinez - All of these guys have done enough to get a chance to fill a void on the roster for a little bit. However, the Royals aren't filling this hole with any of these retreads.

Lane Adams - At 25 years old, the toolsy outfielder is barely hanging on to the prospect label. He's excellent defensively, can steal bases, and shows flashes at the plate. He received a cup of coffee last September and the organization loves his athleticism. Similar to Eibner, I think he is a guy who could complement Dyson well in a platoon role for left field. However, he isn't going to ever be an everyday outfielder.

Jorge Bonifacio/Bubba Starling - I've lumped these two 22 year olds together because I think at this point they have similar trajectories. Both could be in a position at some point in 2016 to deserve a look as an everyday guy. At this point, it is clear that both need more minor league seasoning. Unless the Royals decide to go the Salvador Perez route  in their developmental approach, neither of these prospects will be slam dunks to deserve a Major League spot at the beginning of 2016.

All of this brings us back to my initial conclusion. The Royals need to add a corner outfielder to the roster sometime in the next few weeks. It will be an enormous boost to the team for 2015, and will also better position the team for success in 2016. 

I've been wanting to get going on here for awhile, but have been considering who other options. It is good to be back and I'll try to break down some specific trade targets over the next few weeks. 

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams! 

Minor League Update - Northwest Arkansas Naturals

The Royals' Texas League affiliate is off to a rough start to 2014, sitting at 4-13 and in last place in the North Division. The club trails first place Springfield (STL) by five games, and is winless at home in seven tries thus far.

Among the biggest struggles for Northwest Arkansas is a 5.77 team ERA, which is a full two runs higher than the next closest club. Opponents have scored a staggering 115 runs – 39 more than the second worst team. Perhaps worse, 22 of those runs are unearned. Naturals pitchers have walked 81 hitters and have thrown 17 wild pitches, both the most in the eight-team Texas League.

As a team, the Naturals are hitting just .236/.323/.328 and have scored only 62 runs in 2014, the league’s second worst mark. Northwest Arkansas batters have hit just eight home runs, which also ranks second lowest in the league.

Individual Hitting

 

MiLB.com

Who’s Hot:

After going 1-for-16 to start the season, Jorge Bonifacio is now fourth in the Texas League with 12 RBI, just three off the pacesetter. The outfielder has five multi-hit ballgames in his last 10 starts and is hitting .310/.370/.429 since April 11. In all, Bonifacio has one home run with a line of .239/.338/.358.

Infield prospect Cheslor Cuthbert has a team-high 17 hits and 12 walks and ranks second on the club with seven RBI. In all, he is hitting .279/.392/.361.

Whit Merrifield is tied for the league lead with six doubles, three of which have come in his last four games. Over that period, the second baseman/left fielder has three multi-hit games and five RBI.

Who’s Not:

Lane Adams is on the rise with five hits in his last three games, but is still hitting just .224/.329/.284 in 74 plate appearances across 17 games.

Individual Pitching

Who’s Hot:

23-year old pitching prospect Sam Selman tossed five innings in his season debut April 11, in which he allowed just one unearned run. The lefty allowed just two hits and walked four. Across two starts, Selman is currently 0-1 with a 2.79 ERA.

Two of Tim Melville’s three starts have been very impressive. The 24-year old tossed four scoreless innings April 4 and five scoreless April 15. He allowed a combined three hits in the two outings. In all, the right-hander has a 2.77 ERA in 13 innings and has held opponents to a .133 batting average.

Relievers Cody Fassold and Andrew Triggs both have ERAs under 1.80 in six appearances apiece.

Who’s Not:

Basically, everyone else. Specifically:

Prospect Jason Adam has lost three games, tied for the most in the Texas League.

He was roughed up in his first start of the season, surrendering eight runs (six earned) in just three innings against Midland (OAK). He followed that outing with a two-hit performance and one earned run across four strong innings also against the RockHounds , but then surrendered ten hits to Springfield in his last start. The Cardinals score five runs, four of which were earned. Opponents are hitting .388 against Adam with right-handed hitters scorching him for a line of .545/.519/.773 in 23 April plate appearances.

Angel Baez has struck out 17 hitters in 10.2 innings, which ranks among the league’s leaders in K/9. Unfortunately, he has a 10.97 ERA this year across six relief appearances.

Noel Arguelles is tied for the league’s most walks with 13 and has a 14.09 ERA in his first 7.2 innings across six appearances.

Top Prospect Countdown: #50 Whit Merrifield

If today hasn't already been exciting enough for Royals' fans I am pleased to begin the rolling out of the Royal Revival top 50 prospect countdown. Let me preface this undertaking by emphasizing that I am not a scout. I base my opinions and rankings off of a combination scouting reports, statistics, and for some prospects even personal observation.

I enjoy doing a top prospect list, despite how time consuming the process. I also must admit that in some instances I can't help but over rank some players due to personal feelings toward them. Nonetheless I hope you enjoy these rankings as much as I do, and I hope that you take the time to comment. Especially if you have any personal observation on the prospect in discussion.


#50 Whit Merrifield

Position: Utility
Age: 22
Height: 6-1
Weight: 175
B/T: R/R
Acquired: 9th Round of 2010, Rule IV Draft


I start my top prospect countdown with a guy that doesn't make many prospect lists. But when I check the box scores every night during the summer he is a guy whose line I make sure to read, not to mention where on the diamond he played. Last season Merrifield's line was split extremely evenly over three spots: second base, left field, and center field.

Think of Whit Merrifield as a Willie Bloomquist type player, and for those of you that scoff, please provide me with great teams that lacked versatility on their benches. I like the Royals grooming Merrifield to be this kind of player. After all for every Edgar Renteria walk off moment there is a Craig Counsell one.

Speaking of walk off moments, Whit Merrifield knows a thing or two about them. In his final year at the University of South Carolina he notched perhaps the biggest hit of his career when he hit the game winner to give the Gamecocks their first ever College World Series Title.

In his first full professional season as a professional the Royals weren't shy about taking an agressive approach, electing to send him to the pitcher friendly Carolina League. As a twenty-two year old Merrifield hit .262/.337/.369, but given the league average line is just .250/.322/.379 Merrifield's line looks a little stronger than you would initially believe. Of course I will also mention that Willie Bloomquist's career Major League line is .262/.317/.337.

If Merrifield can prove his versatility and become an above average defender in both the outfield and at second base, there could be a Major League future for him. His line in 2011, doesn't scream prospect, but it was his first full season as a pro and it came in one of the roughest hitter's parks in all of minor league baseball.

I am interested to see where Merrifield is assigned to begin 2011, but I expect it will likely be to Wilmington. There I'll be rooting for him to pick things up with a bat, so that one day he may have an opportunity to do something magical once again.