Revisiting the Wil Myers Trade

First off, I want to apologize for my absence over the past six weeks. As many of you have read here before, I've never been one to analyze individual games or do weekly updates. Quite frankly, I haven't been writing for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, I haven't had the free time necessary to maintain this blog. I am getting married in October and in the process of a home remodel. Also, my brother was married last night, as well as fellow Royal Revival writer Paden. In addition to these items, I am currently pursuing a Master's degree and have the responsibilities of a full time job. If the posts here are few and far between over the next few months, I hope you can bare with me.

The major reason for this post today is yesterday's blockbuster trade between the Athletics and Cubs. My initial reaction to the trade was 'man, is the Cubs system stacked.' My second thought, I hope this gets Billy Beane a ring.

Despite the lack of pitching prospects in the Cubs system it seems possible that the lovable losers could push for the title of Best Farm System ever. Theo Epstein, who has stated that he wants to build a farm system like the one the Royals had is on the cusp of accomplishing just that. (On a side note, I wonder how many baseball executives looked lustily upon the Royals system and thought to themselves, "oh if only I could be the one to take them to the next level.")

Since the trade there have been many who have comped this deal to the trade that sent Wil Myers to Tampa Bay. Let me be perfectly clear, this comparison is lazy. Yes, both the Royals and A's sent a top ten prospect plus to another team for pitching talent in an attempt to win now. No, that doesn't make the trades equal. This mentality that one is approved because it is Billy Beane and the other is rejected because it is Dayton Moore is unfair to the fans smart enough to evaluate moves on a much deeper level.

The Royals made the trade to get to the periphery of playoff contention. The Athletics made the trade to win a world series title. If you equate these two items as being of the same value, then you can click the X found in the upper right hand corner of the browser. A team's placement on the win curve is essential in determining what they should be willing to pay for each additional win. This is rudimentary stuff, but somehow seems to be forgotten by those stating these trades are one in the same.

Another point that should be made is that the Royals trade occurred in the off-season, a time in which talent can be acquired without sacrificing talent already in hand. Quite simply, if the A's wanted to improve their rotation in July, they had no choice but to move talent from their organization. In the off-season, the Royals could in theory acquire talent, while also hanging on to the talent at hand. This represents an enormous difference in the trades.

Finally, Addison Russell, while he is an outstanding prospect is not ready to contribute at the Major League level. He has played 16 games in the upper levels of the Minor Leagues. Best case is that he is called up midway through next season. Meaning the A's were not going to get a return on him for basically an entire season. Wil Myers on the other hand was Major League ready and returns on him would begin the same time as the returns of the asset. This is a key point that I haven't seen mentioned, but should not be ignored.

Of course, all of this pushed me to revisit the Myers trade. Since the Royals seemingly made the decision to go for it in 2013 and 2014, it would make sense that they would have returned much more value in the short term than the Rays. In order to see if the Royals have come out ahead in the Myers-Shields trade, I decided to compare the post trade WAR totals for the Royals with the WAR total from the Royals in an alternate universe in which they stayed the course and held on to Wil Myers. Also, since the Royals would have had a solution in right field, I have included the Smith brothers, Justin Maxwell, and Nori Aoki in this evaluation.

bWAR	2013	2014		fWAR	2013	2014
w/out trade	$1.00	$1.50		w/out trade	$1.00	$1.50
Patrick Leonard	A	A+		Patrick Leonard	A	A+
Mike Montgomery	AAA	AAA		Mike Montgomery	AAA	AAA
Jake Odorizzi	0.3	0.9		Jake Odorizzi	0.3	1.5
Wil Myers	1.9	-0.6		Wil Myers	2.4	0.4
Will Smith		1.3		Will Smith		0.6
Kyle Smith	A+	AA		Kyle Smith	A+	AA
	2.2	1.6			2.7	2.5
w/trade	$11.80	$20.25		w/trade	$11.80	$20.25
James Shields	4.1	-0.1		James Shields	4.5	1.4
Wade Davis	-2.1	1.8		Wade Davis	1.7	1.5
Nori Aoki		-0.5		Nori Aoki		0.9
Justin Maxwell	0.6	-1.2		Justin Maxwell	0.7	-1.1
	2.6	0			6.9	2.7

The left hand column utilized the WAR from Baseball Reference, while the right side uses Fangraphs' version. As you can see, the Royals clearly came out ahead in 2013, but depending on which WAR you prefer it was either just 0.4 wins or 4.2 wins ahead. Let's split the difference and say the Royals were 2.3 wins better because of the trade. In 2014, we find that according to bWAR the Royals are actually 1.6 WAR worse because of the trade, while fWAR says they are 0.2 wins better. Again let's split the difference and say they are 1.4 wins worse because of the trade. 

Really based off the above totals, no matter how you slice it, it is hard to argue that the Royals were much better off over the past two seasons due to the acquiring of James Shields and Wade Davis. In fact, based off of our midway points, the Royals actually were just 0.9 wins better over the last year and a half, thanks to the trade. I doubt this is what Royals officials had in mind when they pulled the trigger on the trade that would send their top prospect to Tampa Bay.

Unfortunately for Royals fans it gets worse. As you can see in the above tables, there is also a dollar figure included. This represents in millions how much the Royals paid for the players. In 2013, the Royals spent $10.8 million more for the bottom group and in 2014 the total jumped to $18.75 million more. My guess is that this difference could have been spent on the free agent market to acquire an additional win over the last year and a half, which would have made the top grouping better even in the short run. 

Fortunately, there is a way that we can consider the monetary implications in our evaluation. In 2013, Fangraphs valued each win at approximately $5 million. If we multiply that by the WAR total for each set and add in the difference in money to the alternate universe scenario, the Myers led Royals squad boasts an average over $23.05 million in value between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs to $23.75 million for the Shields version (approximately 0.1 win). This obviously is a slight edge to the Shields led Royals. However, the 2014 averages favor the Myers led squad $54.1 million to $26.65 million (roughly 4.6 wins).

Clearly, the Royals were willing to sacrifice the long term to push the envelope in the short term. Unfortunately, based off these numbers the Royals have lost tremendously in the short run as well. Even if we discount each year following 2013, the numbers are going to be staggeringly one sided when this set of trades is evaluated. To close, let me just give you an update on the other guys the Royals gave up that have yet to contribute at the Major League level. 

Patrick Leonard: Hitting .298/.386/.521 in 76 games with Tampa Bay's High A team. His 12 homers would be tied for third most in the Royals organization. He is 21 years old.

Mike Montgomery: 3.28 ERA in 85 innings with Triple A Durham (most hitter friendly park in league). He leads the International League in FIP and SIERA. Still just 24 years old. 

Kyle Smith: Has pitched 78.1 innings between the Astros High-A and Double A teams. Currently has a 3.56 ERA, is striking out 10.23 per 9 innings and walking just 2.64. He is also 21 years old.

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Wilmington Blue Rocks Preview

Projected Lineup

2B - Justin Trapp

SS - Jack Lopez

3B - Cheslor Cuthbert

RF - Jorge Bonifacio

CF - Lane Adams

1B - Murray Watts

DH - Daniel Mateo

LF - Tim Ferguson

C - Parker Morin

Rotation

Kyle Zimmer

Sam Selman

Kyle Smith

John Lamb

Angel Baez

Bench

C Kenny Swab, IF Kenneth Diekroger, IF Nick DelGuidice, OF Geulin Beltre, OF Chris Elder

Bullpen

Antonio Cruz, Robinson Yambati, Aaron Brooks, Malcom Culver, Cody Fassold, Kellen Moen, 

Spencer Patton, Andrew Tiggs

Notes on the 2013 Blue Rocks:

•  The middle of the lineup will be one of the more popular topics regarding Wilmington to start this season off.  Cuthbert is looking for a bounce back year, after hitting .240/.296/.322 with an ISO of .082.  Cheslor's GB% was 46.7 while his BB% was 7.2.  Although his K% was well below the Carolina League average, if he can work on a line-drive swing and being a little more patient at the plate, Cuthbert we'll get back on track in no time.
• Jorge Bonifacio, the 19 year old "not so athletic younger brother of Emilio" and #5 on our 2013 Prospect List, held his own for sure at the plate in Kane County last season, hitting .282 with 10 HR and 61 RBI, not as pretty as Twins top prospect Miguel Sano (28 HR 100 RBI), but still very promising for the time being and his age.  The C.L. is known for being a "pitcher's league" so hopefully Bonifacio can keep up the pace from his Kane County days.
• Jason Adam, 23, has sort of slipped off our radar, but still remains a prospect for now.  Last season, starting off with Kane County, was a solid bounce back from an ugly 2011 season.  Once joining the Blue Rocks, his batting average fell nearly 60 points compared to his K.C. appearances.  If Jason wants to remain in the organization, he'll need to get it going in Wilmington before it's too late.

• Murray Watts, 27, is definitely on the scolding hot seat at this point.  Last year he compiled a line of .221/.299/.394 in 30 games for the Blue Rocks, hitting only 4 HR with an ISO of .173.  The problem with Murray is he doesn't make contact well at all and doesn't have good patience at the plate, striking out 35.9% of the time while walking only 10.3% of his ABs.  This will most likely be the final year for Murray in the Royals organization if he doesn't show signs of improvement.

• The rotation will definitely be the highlight of Wilmington to kick off the season this Thursday, April 4th.  With four of our own Top 15 prospects in the rotation alone, Royals fans will want to keep tabs on the Blue Rocks for a while.  Kyle Zimmer headlines the staff, as he comes off an exciting rookie season in Kane County.  A workhorse who will give you lots of innings, like former Blue Rock Jason Adam, should split time between Wilmington and Northwest Arkansas, if all goes to plan.  Sam Selman and Kyle Smith join Zimmer in their quest, alongside rehabbing John Lamb, who is back to full health, but needs some time to regain some of his velocity.  

• Another guy to look after his reliever Robinson Yambati.  At 22, he has a three quarter arm delivery, a low 90's fastball, and an incredible GB% of 65.6, thanks to his ability to keep the ball low in the strike zone.  If he continues his success from 2012, he'll be in Northwest Arkansas before too long, and possibly even Omaha before season's end.

Prospect Countdown: #11 Kyle Smith

11. Kyle Smith Right Handed Pitcher

milb.com

Age: 20
Position: RHP
Height: 6'0"
Weight: 170
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 4th Round of the 2011 Amateur Draft
From: Boynton Beach, FL



Paden Bennett (14):  Kyle Smith is a 20 year old right hander who made the jump to A ball last season and flourished.  Smith made 13 starts with 67 IP to the tune of a 2.94 era and 87 strikeouts.  I look for Smith to progress pretty quickly through the system because of his ability to throw his plus secondary pitches (curveball & changeup) for strikes.  His ability to get the strikeout when he needs it is because of his ability to get ahead in the count with his fastball, then finish hitters off with a good offspeed pitch.  I love this kid and I hope to see Kyle Smith make a quick jump to Northwest Arkansas.

Joe Cox (7): Kyle Smith is an undersized right handed pitcher who was drafted in the fourth round of the 2011 amateur draft.  Smith is another young pitcher who skipped rookie ball from extended spring training to go straight to A ball where he dominated.  Over 67 innings, he walked 20 and struck out 87 batters along with a shiny 2.94 ERA.  Smith also held opponents to only 3 home runs last season.  Smith’s stuff features a fastball that typically hits the low 90s along with a plus curveball and a changeup.  It will be interesting to see how Smith holds up over the course of a full season in 2013.  Being only 20 years old Smith has plenty of time to develop and could be a middle rotation arm for the Royals in a few years.

Damion Mandalas (14):  We heard that Smith was advanced at the time of his selection in the 2011 draft. Thus far in his professional career, he has lived up to that bill. In similar ways to John Lamb, Smith has earned praise for his moxy, and pitchability on the mound. He was said to have excellent command entering professional baseball, but his stuff has played well also. Smith should open the season in Wilmington. My guess is who dominates there and sees Northwest Arkansas prior to 2013 end. This will be his first real test as a professional, given that Double-A is often the level in which command and pitchability start to not be enough. 

Dan Ware (18):  Smith is going to be one of my favorite guys to track this season.  A very accomplished young pitcher out of high school 2 years ago, has yet to disappoint the organization thus far.  A guy that is my size that can throw a mid 90's fastball, a very good curve and changeup is impressive in itself.  His 2012 numbers compared to the Midwest and Rookie League averages just make you that much more excited for the young man.  Granted, it was Low-A ball, so don't get too happy.  This year I expect Smith to start off with Wilmington and if he can keep the momentum going, he'll be in Northwest Arkansas in no time.  Keep at least one eye on Kyle all year.

Total Points: 71

Prospect Countdown: #27 Kyle Smith

#27 Kyle Smith


Age: 19
Position: RHP
Height: 6-0
Weight: 167
Acquired: Drafted in the 4th Round of 2011 Amateur Draft
From: Lake Worth, FL

Video created by baseballinstinct.com

Kyle Smith was one of my favorite picks last from last June's Amateur Draft. Smith is extremely polished for your typical high school starter and it is my belief that if not for his height he would have been selected much earlier in the 2011 draft. With the 126th pick of the draft the Royals selected Smith and signed him for $695K, nearly tripling the suggested slot for the pick.

In high school Smith baffled Florida hitters with a mid 90s heater, sharp curve ball, and an effective change up. He displays fantastic command and his change is well advanced for a pitcher his age. In his senior year at Santaluces High School Smith cruised to a 0.40 ERA in 69 innings pitched. In those 69 innings Smith allowed 46 hits and 14 walks, while striking out 116.

Just for emphasis that translates to 15.1 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 or a K:BB of 8.2. I should also mention that of those 46 hits allowed only 4 went for extra bases. Also of note, is that these numbers weren't posted in an area of the country not known for great baseball talent. Smith was playing in Florida, which thanks to that Florida sun enables players to play year round resulting in a quality level of competition.

Kyle Smith has drawn comparisons to Tim Hudson thanks primarily to his frame, but a Tim Hudson kind of ceiling may be pretty accurate for the young starter. I don't want to get to worked up about a pitcher that hasn't made a professional appearance yet, but I can't hardly help it with Kyle Smith. I expect him to spend 2012 in extended Spring Training and then as the weather heats up in the Midwest League, Smith should find himself in Kane County.

Royals Gettin' Their Over Slot On

The Royals got the ballpoint pen rolling on getting their top 2011 draft picks in uniform a couple of days ago when they got 3B/OF prospect, 5th round selection Patrick Leonard. Leonard was coached in high school by the great Craig Biggio, whom he gives huge amounts of credit to the development of his game.

Leonard receives big praise for his right handed power, something that has become a commodity in today's game. He's 6-3, 200 and was clocked as having a 6.73, 60 yard dash according to Perfect Game USA. The site also states that he has an "awesome bat, good in field, can do it all." Hopefully that short run down proves to be true. Leonard signed a deal with a bonus of $600K, the slot value for the pick was $161K.

This morning the Royals continued to force the Commisioner's office to approve overslot deals with a couple more big time prep signings. This time the players came in the right handed pitching variety.

First we learned about 29th round pick Jake Junis, whom the Royals signed to bonus of $675K. Here you can read about Pinetar Press's scouting report on the player. To highlight, Junis is a 6-3 righty with a very athletic frame. He has a fastball that currently sits in the low 90s, a curveball that has been at times a plus offering, and a changeup that is a show pitch at the moment.

Junis was considered a top 10 round pick by Baseball America entering the draft. His bonus demand of $800K scared teams off so much that he fell all the way to the 29th round. Once there he became a guy that most thought would be going to college for sure. The Royals did a great job of putting the dollar sign on the muscle with Jake Junis.

Just tens of minutes later the Royals signed their second prep righty of the day, 4th round pick Kyle Smith. I have to admit that outside of the Starling selection, no pick in the Royals draft had me as excited as the selection of Kyle Smith. His high school numbers were outrageous. He had an era of 0.40, with 116 Ks to just 14 walks in 69 innings his senior year. He also faced great competition, and had the privilege of playing baseball all year round in the state of Florida.

Smith has shown the ability to uncork mid 90s heat, a hard curveball, and a changeup that he has thrown much more than the typical college righty. Judging by his numbers he seems to already be polished to a certain degree and for that reason I'm hoping he can be a fast riser in the system. Smith signed to a $695K bonus, nearly three times the slot value.

Another thing that really intrigues me about Smith is his build. he is only 6 feet tall. This tells me two things. First, if Smith was a couple inches taller and posted the same numbers his senior season he would have been a top talent and coveted at the top of the draft. Second, the Royals must really like him if they were willing to deviate from their ideal frame for right handed starters.

Personally, I think it is only doing disservice to oneself when you create a typecast for the type of players you want to fill each position. It narrows your potential field of vision and disallows your staff from finding the absolute best players available. If you can see past prejudices and in this case old scouting prejudices and stereotypes you are enabled the opportunity to be more efficient than your competitors.


But the Royals didn't stop there. Later in the day they signed their 16th round selection, shortstop Jack Lopez. Lopez fell hard on draft day, due to a baseball scholarship to play for the hometown Miami Hurricanes. Jack Lopez was very open that there was a dollar amount that could prevent him to going to school, but it wasn't cheap. Well a couple of months later we know that the amount was $750K.

Lopez has soft hands and should stay in the middle infield long term. His father is a bullpen coach for the Cincinnati Reds, which is definitely a feather in his cap considering that players with Major League ties often adjust easier to pro baseball life.

The Royals latest work on the day comes in the signing of right handed starter Bryan Brickhouse. Aside from having a top flight name Brickhouse also attended a top flight high school baseball program at the Woodlands, TX. The high school has also produced Kyle Drabek, Jameson Tallion, and Brett Eibner.

The 3rd round pick Brickhouse had a UNC baseball scholarship in hand, but was bought out for $1.5 million. Brickhouse currently sits in the low 90s, but will flash mid 90's heat when he is on. He also displays a plus 11-5 curveball and like Junis has a show changeup. Baseball America says that Brickhouse could develop into a mid rotation starter, but if he can't find enough consistency he will find a home in the bullpen.

While the Royals have undoubtedly had a great day thus far, the attention now fully turns to Bubba Starling. Yes I believe he will sign. I think at one point I even ventured a guess of 9.1 million as a bonus for him.

If Bubba doesn't sign there will definitely be a taste of disappointment in the mouths of Royals fans, though I am sure it won't be due to lack of effort on the Royals part. The deadline is still almost two hours away, I am convinced he'll sign, but with each passing minute I grow just a little more nervous.