Fox Sports' Five Reasons the Royals are Making Playoffs

Last Friday, Jeffrey Flanagan of Fox Sports Kansas City provided Royals fans with a wonderfully written and masterfully crafted essay in which he listed five reasons that the Boys in Blue would find themselves playing games in October. Let's review each of his reasons:

1. Big Game James

Now before you yell out "we had James Shields last year and won 86 games!" let me stop you. You're right we had Shields last year, but we didn't have contract year Shields! And according to Flanagan the idea of being rich will be just the extra motivate that Shields needs to take his game to the next level in 2014. You think James Shields is good now, just wait until he's throwing changeups so good, dollar bills start streaming from his pockets!

2. Filling the Black Holes

Flanagan says it all in his first sentence "it's not like the Royals acquired a couple of Hall of Famers to fill the holes of second base and right field, but it sure feels like it." 

Hell yeah it does! And when you feel like something is true, in virtually every circumstance it proves to be true. If Omar Infante and Nori Aoki don't play like Rogers Hornsby and Babe Ruth, I'll be damned.

3. Alex Gordon

Flanagan points to Gordon's new found security of hitting consistently in the heart of the order as a reason to expect big things for Gordon in 2014. Never mind the fact that Gordon his lead off in over 75% of his games last season. Also, let's ignore the fact that Gordon is entering his age 30 season and is coming off a year in which he posted the worst walk rate of his career and struck out in over 20% of his at bats. All the while seeing his line drive percentage drop to his lowest mark since 2009. 

4. The Vargas Addition

Flanagan opens this one with "it's kind of a tough sell to believe that left-hander Jason Vargas simply will step into the rotation and fill the void left by the Royals' decision not to sign Ervin Santana." 

That's true, but as Flanagan reminds us many didn't expect Santana to be so good last year. This is an excellent report by the Fox Sports reporter. If an Angels cast off was good last year, then it is a given that another one would be a good addition for 2014. 

Vargas could very well be a strong addition to the Royals 2014 rotation, but let's not act like just because it worked with Santana, it is going to work again with the former Angel and Mariner.

5. Closing the Gap on the Tigers

Flanny's got a hunch and he says there's a chance the Tigers slip a notch this season. 

There you have it Royals fans! Rest at ease the Royals are postseason bound! 

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No Draft Pick for Ervin?

Wouldn't it be just the Royals luck if Ervin Santana waited until after the All-Star Break to sign with a Major League team robbing the Royals of the supplemental round selection that they should have received? Well, according to Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports that is exactly what the agent of Ervin Santana is threatening. You can read the whole article here.

Rosenthal also makes the point that Santana could sign immediately following Opening Day in order to guarantee that he isn't eligible to have a draft pick attached to him at seasons end. I'm not sure that I buy this part of the post as it would be easy for Santana's agent and a team to simply reach a handshake agreement ensuring this without forcing Santana to sit out extra time.

At the moment I'm not ready to buy that Santana will wait until mid-June to sign a professional contract. At the same time, I'm looking for Santana's market and I just don't see it. Seriously, who is signing Santana to a four-year, $50 million contract now? At this point I really don't know what to expect for Santana.

Moving forward, it would make sense for Major League Baseball to get rid of teams losing draft picks as a punishment for signing free agents. It has always seems a little strange that big market teams are penalized for spending the money that they earned. Baseball could continue to subsidize teams that "can't afford" to keep their top players by still awarded supplemental picks to players turning down a qualifying offer.

What happens with Santana is now anybody's guess, but I would think that a one year deal with an agreement of no qualifying offer would make the most sense. A big knock on the Dominican is his inconsistency and a strong one year deal would help to suppress this criticism. While there isn't much of a market for Santana now, I have to think that if he was signing a one year deal, there would be more than a handful of teams with interest.

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Looking to Future Rotations

With each passing day that Ervin Santana remains a free agent, more and more Royals fans' confidence grows that Santana could return to Kansas City. While I hate to throw water on to these dreams, I am afraid that I have to.

Santana will not be coming back to Kansas City.

The Royals are too deep into their off-season plans and it is woefully apparent that whether or not it is true, the team is operating with the opinion that $90 million is the break even point. The rotation has four out of five spots left and multiple candidates for the fifth spot that are deserving of a chance with the big league club.

Here's a quick snapshot of the next few years rotations:

2014

1. James Shields
2. Jeremy Guthrie
3. Jason Vargas
4. Bruce Chen
5. TBD

2015

1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. Jason Vargas
3. TBD
4. TBD
5. TBD

2016 & 2017

1. Jason Vargas
2. TBD
3. TBD
4. TBD
5. TBD

Obviously, it is the Royals hope that they can fill their rotation with homegrown talent starting next season. Just a month or so ago, J.J. Picollo even stated that he expects Danny Duffy, Yordano Ventura, Kyle Zimmer, and Sean Manaea all to be ready to hold down big league spots. Also, on the horizon is Jason Adam and Miguel Almonte. 

It does appear that the Royals will have the arms to fill out a couple of spots in their big league rotation, but are they going to be able to fill three spots as soon as next season? 

What if this season Duffy totally loses control and Kyle Zimmer blows out his elbow? Where will that leave the Royals next off-season as they attempt to fill out their rotation. Would it be more economical to sign Santana now when conceivably his price has been diminished or would it be better to jump the market and overpay next off-season for another Vargas/Guthrie type. 

If the Royals were to sign Santana, he could slot into the rotation instead of Bruce Chen for 2014. With the addition of Santana, Chen could slide into a swing man role and the Royals could still have a competition for the final rotation spot. Next season, they'd ideally have established one or two of the Duffy, Ventura, Zimmer bunch and would be able to fill out a rotation with some confidence. 

Given the Royals history of starting pitcher development, it seems incredibly ballsy to expect the the current crop of prospects can fill three spots in next years rotation. This indicates to me that next off-season the Royals will once again have to dip their toes into the starting pitching market of free agency. So I leave you with a final question: would it be better to go over the salary threshold this year to get Santana at below market value, or would it be better to wait and overpay next off-season? 

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

22nd Best Rotation in Baseball

On Wednesday, Matthew Pouliot of NBC Sports' Hardball talk took a moment to rank the rotations across Major League Baseball. Somewhat disappointingly, Pouliot concluded that the Royals ranked 22nd in the league and according to his Rotoworld Player Projections would compile a 3.94 ERA over 940 innings pitched. You can view the full list here.

For reference, last season the Royals rotation ranked 12th in baseball with a 3.87 ERA, as well as 4th with 986.2 innings pitched. The issue for the Royals is that much of this rotation success stems from a defense that was one of, if not the best in all of baseball. When we look at Fielding Independent Pitching, the Royals rotation ranking falls to 21st at 4.12 in 2013.

If you give NBC Sports the benefit of the doubt that writer Pouliot has taken into consideration the Royals defensive prowess and is wise enough to not include that in the Royals ranking, then a ranking in the low 20s shouldn't come as a huge surprise to Royals fans. Especially, when you remember that the average sports fan is going to immediately knock the staff for the trade out of Ervin Santana for Jason Vargas.

Ultimately, the success of this rotation will depend on what the Royals get from Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura in 2014. If those two starters can be what many in the organization expect them to be, then this rotation will have no problem posting a better FIP than the one posted by the 2013 version. If those to are duds in 2014, then the Royals will be thankful to have the consistency of Jason Vargas and Bruce Chen on their staff.

At this point, the Royals have six guys who would be deserving of rotation spots to open the season. There is the dependable front end guy (James Shields), the dependable innings eaters (Vargas, Chen, and Jeremy Guthrie), and there are the high upside wild cards (Duffy and Ventura). It is a good blend of options and with Zimmer also on the way, there is even more upside that could reach Kansas City by season's end.

I definitely wouldn't be against a Royals move for another starter (A.J. Burnett or Ervin Santana), and I definitely think the rotation upgrades could have been handled in different measures in the offseason. However, if last year's rotation was strong enough to get the Royals to 86 wins, I see no reason why this rotation couldn't hold course. Obviously, for the Royals to get to the next level, the real key will be improvement on the offensive side of things.

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Top Defense in Baseball

In last Wednesday's post for MLB.com ranking the top defenses in baseball, Anthony Castrovince anointed the Royals as being better than any other. (If you want to see the rest of the rankings click here. Castrovince points to the Royals not having any defensive liability on the diamond and premium defenders at Catcher, Short Stop, and Left Field. Incredibly, Castrovince didn't even make mention of 2013 Gold Glove winner Eric Hosmer, or stud Lorenzo Cain.

Castrovince is right, the Royals are absolute studs on the defensive side of the game. They figure to be even stronger in 2014 with the additions of Omar Infante at second and Norichika Aoki at right field. It is this defensive prowess that gives me comfort at the loss of Ervin Santana. While the Royals rotation isn't as sexy on paper entering without Santana, I believe that an enormous amount of the 2013 run prevention success should be credited to the defense.

While many projections are calling for the Royals to regress in the win column in 2014, due to regression to the mean of their defensive metrics. I would argue that while the metrics of the Royals defense could regress, the actual performance of defense is something less likely to regress than offensive performance. Whether or not the numbers reflect regression, the 2014 Royals aren't going to go from being a dynamite defensive team to a mediocre defensive team.

The Royals ranked very high in WAR numbers in 2013, perhaps this is because defensive metrics somewhat overvalued the Royals defense. A regression in defensive metrics would mean a regression in WAR totals for players, but the point needs to be made that a regression in a metric statistic does not necessarily equal regression in actual performance. The Royals defensive metrics could be a little worse in 2014 than they were in 2013, but in actuality the defense could be playing just as good or better.

Personally, I don't envision the defense regressing in actuality and so I'm not worried about projections that are calling for a regression in defensive numbers. All statistics have variability, but unlike hitting, there is much less randomness involved in fielding a baseball. For this reason, I would expect projection systems to underrate the Royals this offseason.

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In the Cross Hairs: Josh Johnson

#Welp...he gone. With Ervin "Magic" Santana rejecting the Royals qualifying contract offer of 1 year, $14.1 million, he will test the waters of free agency in search of his 5 year, $112 million deal he so wishes for.  Is he worth 112 million dollars? Nah.  Will he get it? I mean... Vernon Wells once received $126 million so..who the hell knows what 'Magic' will get.  What is he worth? Perhaps a 5 year deal worth around 75 million wouldn't be too absurd.  If you want to hear a compelling argument from Santana's trio of agents, comparing their client to another former Royal..Zack Grienke, check out Jon Heyman's article from this morning, talking about some interesting points that make Santana and $112 million a plausible outcome.  As Jeffrey Flanagan reported on Tuesday, GMDM will continue to pursue a deal for Santana. On the plus side, we do get a compensatory pick in the upcoming draft if he signs elsewhere, so there's that, but hey...I've moved on. It was great having you in Royal Blue, Erv.

Let's get to the task at hand: replacing Ervin Santana. While other clubs are moving in on the services of Ervin, Bronson Arroyo, Matt Garza, Phil Hughes, and Tim Hudson, to name a few, I'd like to discuss the reports of the Royals interest in Blue Jays starter Josh Johnson.  Buster Olney of ESPN tweeted earlier this evening a potential signing for Kansas City would be the 29 year old righty, stating it would be a "possible high reward" and that he's a "good team guy." This is definitely intriguing.

Photo courtesy of torontosun.com

In his 8 year tenure as a Florida AND Miami Marlin, Johnson posted a 56-37 record with a beastly 3.15 ERA, along with being named a 2 time All-Star and finishing 5th in Cy Young Award voting in his 2010 campaign. The right hander logged 916.2 innings on the mound, racking up 832 strikeouts and 308 walks, a WHIP of 1.23 and giving up just 0.6 HR/9.  Prior to the 2013 season, Miami owner Jeffrey Loria decided to unload some payroll by creating a mega package including Johnson, pitcher Mark Buerhle, and SS Jose Reyes and sending them up north across the border to the Toronto Blue Jays.  Things got a little sour for Josh as a Blue Jay.  He hit the DL early in the year, came back for a dozen more starts before being shut down to a forearm injury. Coming off minor elbow surgery, Johnson is expected to be healthy and ready for Spring Training.

In his glory days with the Marlins, Josh had a lightning fastball that averaged 95 mph in 2009 and 2010, but since then, his velocity has dipped slightly each of the next years, to 92.8 mph. Along with the heater, Johnson has a slider with good movement, a curve that sits around 79 mph, and a decent changeup.  If somehow the Royals would be able to snag him off the market, his 45% ground ball rate and 31% fly ball rate would make a nice fit at Kauffman Stadium. Turning 30 in January, Johnson is well known for visiting the disabled list and if he can stay away from that list and pitch like he did in '09 and '10, he can easily be one of the top right handed arms in the game. That's the risk that comes with signing the once former ace.

Let's just say for kicks and giggles, Josh wants to come to KC.  Here's what the rotation looks like (in my world):

                                        1.) James Shields                         

                                        2.) Josh Johnson                        

                                        3.) Danny Duffy                          

                                        4.) Jeremy Guthrie                    

                                        5.) Yordano Ventura    

Moore has already gone on the record to say the 1-2 spots are already locked up.  Shields will lead it off, of course, and then Guthrie to follow.  The next 3 spots are up for grabs.  If we were to miss out on Johnson, you can already assume that Duffy will be a full-time member of the rotation, barring any setbacks and if "Ace" Ventura can figure things out, he should be a regular, as well.  Zimmer is close to ready, so in the mean time, someone will have to step up, whether it be Wade Davis or Will Smith.  There's also the risk of letting Luke Hochevar earn his way back as a starter, he was straight up filthy last year in the 'pen.  I say leave him there, but that's not up to me. 

To fill Santana's spot, we need an outside source, and I believe the ex-Marlin/Blue Jay should be the source.  A long-term offer would be way too much of a gamble for any organization to make on Johnson.  This is a bounce back season for Josh, in trying to regain his old form as a top 1-2 starter.  Reports have shown that Johnson could very well get a 'qualifying offer' type of deal, such as 1 year, $8-12 million range. I have no problem with this kind of deal.  The Royals should at least go after Johnson, before bidding on Phil Hughes.

Making it Worth it: Ervin Santana

The Royals are 46-51 and 8 games out of first place. Baseball Prospectus pins their playoff odds at 0.9%. Despite all of this there is a mounting concern that the Royals front office is in denial of World War Z proportions (this is a book reference, not movie). There are reports that the front office sees value in a push for .500 and we have even heard Dayton Moore state that a trade will not be made that weakens the current club. There are several pieces that it could make sense to move, but there is one piece that seems obvious: Ervin Santana.

The way I see it, there are six potential outcomes of the Ervin Santana saga.

1. Ervin Santana is traded prior during the 2013 season.
2. Ervin Santana is held on to and following the season, he declines a qualifying offer, resulting in a draft pick netted by Kansas City. (Last season these picks fell in the 28-33 range.)
3. Ervin Santana is held on to following the season, declines the qualifying offer, but fails to sign with a Major League team prior to the draft. (I find this extremely unlikely, barring a wretched second half.)
4. Ervin Santana is held on to and following the season, he accepts a qualifying offer.
5. Ervin Santana's contract is extended.
6. Ervin Santana is traded, but then resigns with Kansas City.

As difficult as it is to put a valuation on these different outcomes, I wanted to attempt to quantify the value of option number 2. 

First, what is the value of having Santana between now and the end of the season. Without getting too technical let's put this number at 1.5 bWAR. Santana has made 19 starts and is worth 2.1 bWAR thus far. If he makes 14 more starts and maintains his current value, he'll finish the year worth 3.6 bWAR.

On a side note, Fangraphs values 1 fWAR at $5.05 mil. Santana is currently on track to finish with 3.6 fWAR (oddly the same number as bWAR), which would mean he will be worth $18.18 million to Kansas City this season. At the time of his trade to Kansas City, the primary criticism is that his performance couldn't justify the $12 million that the Royals would owe him. The Royals still owe Santana roughly $4 million and if he keeps pace, he'll provide his team roughly $7.6 million in value according to Fangraphs.

In addition to the value that Santana would provide the Royals over the remainder of the season, there is also the value of the draft pick that needs to be discussed. In the 2013 draft, the compensation picks fell in the 28-33. 

Since 1965, 294 players have been drafted in this range. Of those, 141 have reached the Major League level. On average the Major Leaguers procured 7.2 bWAR. However, on average the selection netted the drafting team just 3.4 bWAR.

What this means, is that at minimum in order for the Royals to want to pull the trigger on an Ervin Santana trade they would need to expect a net value of 4.9 bWAR. Let's convert this to a dollar figure and assign an easy $5 million per win. (You'll see why later.) This would value hanging on to Santana plus the draft pick at $24.75 million. So what kind of prospects should the Royals demand in order to ensure that they will come out ahead in an Ervin Santana trade?

We are going to use Michael Valencius's post at D-Rays Bay to help us out. You can view the entire post here.* Huge tip of the cap.

*(As much as I hate to do it, I am unaware of any converter from fWAR to bWAR. Since the prospect studies that I am using are for fWAR, we will have to compare that number to the bWAR figure that we have on the keep Santana end of this discussion.)

Here are the table breakdowns of the values of various prospects. The figures are in millions. The author valued each win at $5 million.

Age breakdowns for the below tables:

Prospects in the 1 to 5 range:



Prospects in the 6 to 15 range:

Prospects in the 16 to 40 range:

Prospects in the 41 to 75 range:

Prospects in the 76 to 100 range:

The tricky part of an Ervin Santana trade is that the acquiring team will no longer also receive the compensation draft pick if he departs the following offseason. What this means, is that for the Royals Santana and the draft pick is worth roughly 4.9 WAR, but for the acquiring team he is worth roughly 1.5 WAR. This is a difference of $17 million in terms of prospect value. 

What should also be considered is that 1 win isn't valued equally. The Royals are going to be in a position on the win curve in which the 1.5 wins netted by Santana are less valuable than they would be for the Dodgers, who figure to need every additional win in order to survive a tight race in the National League West. How much the trading partners respective locations on the win curve becomes the key component in determining Santana's true value.

Another thing that should be considered is the net present value of those Wins Above Replacement. Obviously, Santana's 1.5 are going to occur immediately, but if we are looking at a window of ten years, a draft pick's value might not yield itself until years 4-10, while a prospect's value could yield itself as early as next season. Even if the draft pick's value and prospect's contributions were each 4 WAR, the prospect's value would be higher given the proximity of the contribution.

The Royals don't have to make the move. Just spit-balling, but from their perspective, they should probably target at least $20 million in value to really come out ahead. You can also access Baseball America's 2013 Top 100 here and their mid season top 50 here.  Feel free to play with the list to determine if your prospect of choice fits the bill. 

Mike Olt, who was just traded to Texas for Matt Garza, was worth roughly $21.5 million in value based on the charts and his mid-season ranking, but Chicago netted two additional prospects. I can't be sure of the value of those two prospects, but C.J. Edwards is highly regarded, and Grimm is Major League ready. The combination of these two likely easily passes the value of the package pass $30 million. 

 Joc Pederson, who many have attached their dreams to since Rany discussed him here, is worth $32.34 million based on the above chart. Could the Royals get him back if he was the only piece? 

Adam Eaton of the Diamondbacks would be valued at approximately $22.5 million. Would Eaton and an arm like Andrew Chafin or Chase Anderson make sense? 

I always hate to speculate on specific names, but this sort of information hopefully enables us to put a more firm valuation on the sort of prospect haul that the Royals should expect to receive. Take a look, do your dream trade scenarios make sense?

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Kauffman Stadium and Fly Ball Pitchers

I set out to write a post regarding how fly ball pitchers fair better in Kauffman Stadium than other parks. Basically, I took the top six pitchers in games started from each of Dayton Moore's six seasons at the helm. In a database I then compiled the innings pitched, ERA, ground ball percentage (league average 44%), and HR/FB (league average is 9.5%) of each of the starter's seasons. Following this, I weighted each starter's inputs into a team total based off of innings pitched.

Eventually, I ran a correlation analysis, as well as created a few line graphs that I overlaid over one another in order to get a quick visual. I did this in an attempt to determine how similar the line graphs were in structure. Not surprisingly, I did not find any serious connections between the elements. Of course, the sample size was incredibly small given that I was looking at team totals over six seasons.

I then decided that instead of focusing on the team totals, I would look at all of the starters individually. For this step, I simply created a scatter plot for both ERA versus GB% and ERA versus HR/FB. Here is a look at those scatter plots.

Obviously, there is nothing groundbreaking in this 15 minutes of research. The linear line above isn't anything to crazy. If we were to actually analyze how Kauffman favors fly ball pitchers compared to other parks, we would of course have to compare the above scatter plot to that of Major League averages. One thing that I will note, is that in general we are told that pitchers are better if they can induce ground balls. However, based off of the incredibly small sample above, our linear equation is actually very level across the board. In fact, if you examine the line closely, you will notice a slight slope indicated that fly ball pitchers fair slightly better at the K. 

If we were to really look closely at these types of numbers, of course we would want to include strikeout and walk rates in our study. But if I had to make a conclusion on this quick study, the fact that the line tilts ever so slightly in favor of fly ball pitchers would lead me to believe that this type of pitcher should find Kauffman Stadium's confines friendly. 

Examining our second graph, we once again don't find anything ground breaking. It doesn't take a genius to tell you that more home runs would lead to a higher ERA. I still have to wonder how this slope would compare to the slopes of other Major League parks, but given the dimensions of the K's outfield one would guess that HR/FB are lower for Royals starters. While I would expect the data points to be lower on the Y axis, I would also expect the slope to be less steep for other team's starters. 

I would theorize that due to the higher number of hits at Kauffman Stadium, home runs would hurt more than they would at a park where there are typically less base runners. For that reason, it is ideal for Royals pitchers to have a strong combination of a high fly ball percentage, with a low home run to fly ball percentage. This recipe for success is in no way unique to Kauffman Stadium, but given the park factors of Kauffman Stadium it is likely much more pronounced than the average Major League Park. 

An excellent example of this came in 2009. Zack Greinke was excellent in many facets of his game during that season, but one aspect that was particularly incredible was his ability to limit home runs despite inducing ground balls just 40.2% of the time. Like I said, this was just one part of Greinke's success. However, given Kauffman Stadiums park effects and the manner in which Greinke was recording outs, it isn't any wonder how the Cy Young winner was able to outperform his xFIP by nearly a full run. 

Over the last six seasons, eight Royals "starters" (ERAs include their time in the bullpen), have posted ERAs under 4.00. Six of those eight starters registered below the league average of 4t% ground balls. None of those eight starters posted a HR/FB above league average (9.5%). 

Eleven out of the 36 starters studied, recorded ground ball percentages below 44% as well as limited HR/FB to under 9.5% (I am including 2008 Greinke who just missed the cut with a 42.7 GB%). Here is how those starters rank in ERA among those unqualifying starters. I have put their names in bold. 

1. 2009 Greinke 2.16
2. 2012 Guthrie 3.16
3. 2008 Greinke 3.47
4. 2007 Meche 3.67
5. 2007 Greinke 3.69
6. 2011 Chen 3.77
7. 2007 Bannister 3.87
8. 2008 Meche 3.98
9. 2008 Davies 4.06
10. 2011 Paulino 4.11
11. 2010 Chen 4.17

The two unranked seasons that met the criteria were 2010 Davies (5.34) and 2011 Davies (6.75). Outside of a couple of Davies anomalies (leave it to Kyle Davies to screw something up), it seems pretty certain that the recipe for success at Kauffman Stadium is to keep the balls in the park, while inducing a large number of air outs. (Again this is a good recipe for success anywhere, I just suspect that it is more pronounced for Royals starters. More work would undoubtedly need to be done in order to confirm or refute this belief.)

What does this mean moving forward?

Whether the Royals intended to or not, they acquired several fly ball pitchers this offseason. Ervin Santana's career ground ball percentage is 38.9%, Jeremy Guthrie's is 40.6% and Wade Davis's is 37.9%. (James Shields's is 45.1%.) Davis is the only one of the first three that fall below 10% HR/FB threshold. However, Santana's career mark is 10.8% and Guthrie's is 10.6%. It doesn't feel too crazy to ask they cut just 1% off of their career marks.

I've long felt as though fly ball pitchers can really thrive in Kauffman Stadium. I've wondered many times whether Kauffman's postive affects on fly ball pitchers have been undervalued. Let's hope that this proves to be true. Let's hope that the rotation can keep the ball in the yard and the outfielders busy. If I'm right, we could be pleasantly surprised by the rotation's results in 2013. 

Royals acquire Santana for Sisk

If you haven't heard the news, the Kansas City Royals acquired their first veteran pitcher this afternoon.  Ervin Santana, who turns 30 years old this December, will join the Royals rotation next spring.  In exchange, the Los Angeles Angels received 27 year old, left handed pitcher Brandon Sisk, who spent all of last season in Triple-A Omaha. A good arm out of the pen, Sisk went 3-2 with a 2.54 era, logging 67.1 innings, striking out 73 and walking 32, limiting opposing batters to a .234 average.

Santana has had an up-and-down career with the Angels.  This past season, he went 9-13 posting a 5.16 era.  He threw 178 innings, while throwing 220+ the past 2 seasons, serving up 133 K and 61 BB.  The biggest hole with him is he gave up a Major League leading 39 home runs, which is also a career high for him, as well.  Fortunately, Santana will be moving to a ballpark that has shown a propensity for suppressing home run totals. Coming into the 2012 season, Santana had enjoyed a decent '11 campaign, going 11-12 with a 3.38 era, giving the Angels 'pen some good innings (228.2), striking out 178 batters, walking just 72.  Needless to say, it was a down year for him in 2012.

Mainly a 3 pitch guy, he uses a fastball, changeup, slider.  From FanGraphs, his fastball velocity has stayed relatively the same throughout his 8 year career, sitting around 92-94 mph.  He uses his slider quite often, which touches on average 82 and the changeup around 85, give or take a few mph.

Predominately a fly ball pitcher for most of his career, the past 2 seasons have actually flip flopped, giving up 43.3% grounders to 37.6% fly balls.  He doesn't need to worry about the grounders with the Royals infield behind him, considering we have 2 gold glove finalists (should have been 3) to back him up in Moustakas, Escobar, and Hosmer.

Although Kauffman Stadium isn't necessarily a pitcher's ballpark, it does pretty well at eliminating home runs.  This was definitely an odd year for Ervin because his HR/FB rate had never been higher than 12.8% until this past season, where he recorded an ugly 19%.  Although he'll give up a few dingers on occasion, I don't expect it to go as high as 19% again.  Kauffman can only dampen that number...hopefully.

This trade today was definitely not a bad one.  It wasn't something to get pumped up for, but GMDM took the initiative and acquired a helpful piece to our problem.  According to The Los Angeles Times, the Angels sent over a check for $1 million along with Santana, for kicks and giggles I suppose.  Therefore, the Royals are responsible for just $12 million of Santana's contract this season.

There is still room for getting another pitcher or 2, which is why this deal is good lookin'.  Perhaps going after Santana's teammate Dan Haren or acquiring someone via trade is up in the air, who knows.  What makes this better?  Unlike Brady Quinn saying "Now I'm done" in his infamous commercial, Dayton Moore told Pete Grathoff of The Kansas City Star, "We're not done."  This Halloween did not disappoint.