In case you missed it, on Sunday the Kansas City Star's Andy McCullough brought us this article on the importance of a healthy Salvador Perez. There is no doubt that Salvy is one of the most important pieces to this Royals team if not the most important. We are entering Year 8 of the Process and Perez represents the crown jewel of the scouting and development system that Dayton Moore has constructed.
In just 253 professional games, Perez has accumulated 7.5 fWAR, which is easily more than any other hitter developed during the Dayton Moore regime. Perez has compiled this mark at quite the discount for Kansas City. In a time when amateur players are signing for millions of dollars, Perez signed for just $65,000.
Obviously, for Perez to develop into any sort of Major League contributor he would have proved to be an excellent investment, but Dayton Moore swooped in and signed him to a long term deal after just 39 professional games. The deal guaranteed Perez $7 million over the first five years of the deal and included three team options would could take the value all the way up to $21.75.
The deal was a masterstroke by Moore and will most likely be remembered as the best move of his tenure. The contract not only guaranteed a relatively small amount of money*, but also bought the Royals two additional years of team control. Making the deal even better has been the fact that the final three years of the contract are team options.
*Consider this, Eric Hosmer's signing bonus was $6 million. the Royals promised Perez $7 million and were able to secure 8 seasons of cost control for the catcher.
There was a stretch when Dayton Moore did a nice job of locking up several guys. Billy Butler signed a four year deal with a team option, when he was reaching arbitration for the first time. Alcides Escobar signed a four year deal with two team options when he was reaching arbitration. Alex Gordon signed a four year deal with an option when he was just a season from Free Agency.
Entering this offseason I was hopeful that the Royals could do the same for some of their current assets. I also knew that there weren't a ton of logical fits to be extension. Eric Hosmer would be a fantastic player to lock up long term, but he is a Boras client that long dreamed of playing for the Yankees. Danny Duffy, hasn't shown enough control/poise/durability to warrant a guaranteed rotation spot let along a long term contract. Mike Moustakas hit like crap last season. Lorenzo Cain is too injury prone for an extension. This only leaves a few options.
James Shields would have been awesome to extend, but given the current pitching market and the fact that he is now just a year from free agency, it seems that the Royals have missed their chance (if it ever existed). It also isn't a given that a Shields extension would even be worth it.
Greg Holland has been discussed at length on this blog over the past week. He's a guy who is probably the best best to be extended prior to 2014. Of course, in terms of players extended he's a guy that probably wouldn't create a ton of excitement. At the same time if the Royals can find value in a Greg Holland extension then they should absolutely jump at the opportunity.
The final player who I will suggest is Norichika Aoki. If you've frequented this blog over the last couple of months you know how big of an Aoki fan that I am. I think he is going to be an excellent fit for Kauffman Stadium and I expect him to be wroth 2.5 WAR or more in 2014. Aoki is only signed through this season, but I would be curious as to what he might ask for in the way of an extension.
The Royals have done a nice job in putting talent together in Kansas City. Hopefully, the Royals can keep this group together long enough to put the pieces in place around them to win big. At the very least we know that we'll have a top notch catcher putting on the mask for us day in and day out for the next six seasons.
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Showing posts with label Salvador Perez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Salvador Perez. Show all posts
Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Friday, February 14, 2014
He Can Play Any Position He Wants
In an article for Fox Sports on Wednesday, Jeffrey Flanagan brought us this article regarding the possibility of Sal Perez playing some first base during the 2014 season. Of course, it only took until the second paragraph for a quote by our fearless leader to venture off into hyperbole:
Of course, not too much farther into the article mohawk yielding Mike Moustakas dampens our hopes:
Seriously, any additional versatility is always welcomed. Perez is an awesome player and there is no sweeter contract in baseball than his. If giving Perez an occasional start at first base helps keep him healthy throughout the contract and the season, then by all means give him some starts at first base. Let's just not go overboard and pull Eric Hosmer or Billy Butler's bat out of the lineup 20 times this season just for the hell of it.
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"Sal really could, if he wanted to, play any position. He has that ability." - Dayton MooreThis actually explains a lot. For instance, now we understand why the Royals DFA-ed Emilio Bonifacio. Why keep him on the bench when you have super-sub Salvy ready to make a diving catch in center, or turn a double play? This would also explain why we don't feel the need to carry a back up middle infielder at the beginning of the season. We've got Salvy ready to play short of Alcides Escobar goes down!
Of course, not too much farther into the article mohawk yielding Mike Moustakas dampens our hopes:
"I wouldn't say he'd be winning a Gold Glove (at first base) or anything. It's amazing. For as good of a defensive catcher as he is and how amazing he can catch pop-ups and make plays out there, he can't catch a pop-up to save his life at first base. It's crazy."But wait! Should we really take Moustakas at his word? I mean Dayton Moore has zero incentive to lie to the fanbase, but Moustakas? What do you think is going to happen when he is posting a negative batting average in May and the Royals faithful get wind that Perez can play anywhere including the hot corner! Moustakas is clearly has some self interest involved here.
Seriously, any additional versatility is always welcomed. Perez is an awesome player and there is no sweeter contract in baseball than his. If giving Perez an occasional start at first base helps keep him healthy throughout the contract and the season, then by all means give him some starts at first base. Let's just not go overboard and pull Eric Hosmer or Billy Butler's bat out of the lineup 20 times this season just for the hell of it.
Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams
Saturday, February 8, 2014
Top Defense in Baseball
In last Wednesday's post for MLB.com ranking the top defenses in baseball, Anthony Castrovince anointed the Royals as being better than any other. (If you want to see the rest of the rankings click here. Castrovince points to the Royals not having any defensive liability on the diamond and premium defenders at Catcher, Short Stop, and Left Field. Incredibly, Castrovince didn't even make mention of 2013 Gold Glove winner Eric Hosmer, or stud Lorenzo Cain.
Castrovince is right, the Royals are absolute studs on the defensive side of the game. They figure to be even stronger in 2014 with the additions of Omar Infante at second and Norichika Aoki at right field. It is this defensive prowess that gives me comfort at the loss of Ervin Santana. While the Royals rotation isn't as sexy on paper entering without Santana, I believe that an enormous amount of the 2013 run prevention success should be credited to the defense.
While many projections are calling for the Royals to regress in the win column in 2014, due to regression to the mean of their defensive metrics. I would argue that while the metrics of the Royals defense could regress, the actual performance of defense is something less likely to regress than offensive performance. Whether or not the numbers reflect regression, the 2014 Royals aren't going to go from being a dynamite defensive team to a mediocre defensive team.
The Royals ranked very high in WAR numbers in 2013, perhaps this is because defensive metrics somewhat overvalued the Royals defense. A regression in defensive metrics would mean a regression in WAR totals for players, but the point needs to be made that a regression in a metric statistic does not necessarily equal regression in actual performance. The Royals defensive metrics could be a little worse in 2014 than they were in 2013, but in actuality the defense could be playing just as good or better.
Personally, I don't envision the defense regressing in actuality and so I'm not worried about projections that are calling for a regression in defensive numbers. All statistics have variability, but unlike hitting, there is much less randomness involved in fielding a baseball. For this reason, I would expect projection systems to underrate the Royals this offseason.
Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams
Castrovince is right, the Royals are absolute studs on the defensive side of the game. They figure to be even stronger in 2014 with the additions of Omar Infante at second and Norichika Aoki at right field. It is this defensive prowess that gives me comfort at the loss of Ervin Santana. While the Royals rotation isn't as sexy on paper entering without Santana, I believe that an enormous amount of the 2013 run prevention success should be credited to the defense.
While many projections are calling for the Royals to regress in the win column in 2014, due to regression to the mean of their defensive metrics. I would argue that while the metrics of the Royals defense could regress, the actual performance of defense is something less likely to regress than offensive performance. Whether or not the numbers reflect regression, the 2014 Royals aren't going to go from being a dynamite defensive team to a mediocre defensive team.
The Royals ranked very high in WAR numbers in 2013, perhaps this is because defensive metrics somewhat overvalued the Royals defense. A regression in defensive metrics would mean a regression in WAR totals for players, but the point needs to be made that a regression in a metric statistic does not necessarily equal regression in actual performance. The Royals defensive metrics could be a little worse in 2014 than they were in 2013, but in actuality the defense could be playing just as good or better.
Personally, I don't envision the defense regressing in actuality and so I'm not worried about projections that are calling for a regression in defensive numbers. All statistics have variability, but unlike hitting, there is much less randomness involved in fielding a baseball. For this reason, I would expect projection systems to underrate the Royals this offseason.
Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams
Sunday, November 17, 2013
Royals sign Francisco Pena; Added to 40-man Roster
It was announced today that the Royals had signed free agent catcher Francisco Pena to a Major League contract. He will be added to the 40-man roster. Pena has some family ties with the Royals, as his father, Tony Pena was a former manager of the Royals and is now currently serving as the New York Yankees bench coach. His brother, Tony Pena, Jr., also a former Royal, played shortstop..and we all know how well that panned out for us!
Since 2007, as a 17 year old, he has spent his professional career in the Minor Leagues for the New York Mets. With nearly 2,300 plate appearances, he has a career line of .236/.286/.348, 40 HR, 286 RBI, 103 2B, 6 3B, 415 SO, and just 136 BB. Last season he played 89 games, 68 for Triple-A Las Vegas and 21 for Double-A Binghamton of the Eastern League, hitting a career high .254 at both levels with 9 HR and 39 RBI. Behind the plate, he managed to throw out just 15 runners, allowing 35 for steals.
With the addition of Pena, the competition for the backup role of Salvador Perez shouldn't change. Veterans George Kottaras and Brett Hayes are considered the front-runners for the position, which means Francisco will have to work extremely hard to be even considered a legitimate backup. Basically, this signing doesn't make any sense and was not necessary.
This signing also adds another dilemma: who to protect for the 40-man. The roster now has 39 players on it, including Francisco Pena. As Kansas City Star reporter Bob Dutton mentioned in a recent article, the Royals have until Wednesday November 20th to finalize their 40-man roster, otherwise eligible prospects will be made available to other teams in the upcoming Rule-5 Draft. Instead of choosing 2 players to fill the void, now we're down to just 1 player allowed to be added. Some of the more notable names to protect are Michael Mariot, Christian Colon, Cheslor Cuthbert, Lane Adams, Brett Eibner, and Brian Fletcher. We will find out who the lucky 40th member to the roster will be soon enough.
Since 2007, as a 17 year old, he has spent his professional career in the Minor Leagues for the New York Mets. With nearly 2,300 plate appearances, he has a career line of .236/.286/.348, 40 HR, 286 RBI, 103 2B, 6 3B, 415 SO, and just 136 BB. Last season he played 89 games, 68 for Triple-A Las Vegas and 21 for Double-A Binghamton of the Eastern League, hitting a career high .254 at both levels with 9 HR and 39 RBI. Behind the plate, he managed to throw out just 15 runners, allowing 35 for steals.
With the addition of Pena, the competition for the backup role of Salvador Perez shouldn't change. Veterans George Kottaras and Brett Hayes are considered the front-runners for the position, which means Francisco will have to work extremely hard to be even considered a legitimate backup. Basically, this signing doesn't make any sense and was not necessary.
This signing also adds another dilemma: who to protect for the 40-man. The roster now has 39 players on it, including Francisco Pena. As Kansas City Star reporter Bob Dutton mentioned in a recent article, the Royals have until Wednesday November 20th to finalize their 40-man roster, otherwise eligible prospects will be made available to other teams in the upcoming Rule-5 Draft. Instead of choosing 2 players to fill the void, now we're down to just 1 player allowed to be added. Some of the more notable names to protect are Michael Mariot, Christian Colon, Cheslor Cuthbert, Lane Adams, Brett Eibner, and Brian Fletcher. We will find out who the lucky 40th member to the roster will be soon enough.
Tuesday, June 11, 2013
Super Salvy
The Royals cruised to their sixth consecutive victory last night in large part due to a triple by their 245 pound catcher, Salvador Perez. It doesn't take a genius to tell you that Salvy's presence in the lineup has a huge factor on this organization, but I was wondering just how big of an influence it has been over the last three seasons. Let's check out the numbers.
Over the past three seasons, the Royals are 78-85 when Salvador Perez makes an appearance and 77-83 (.481) when he starts the game. In that same time frame, the Royals are 172-213 good for a .447 winning percentage. Over the past three seasons, in games that Salvador Perez doesn't start, the Royals are 95-130, winning just 42 percent of their games.
When you readjust the numbers for averages over 162 games over the past three seasons, the Royals have performed like a 78 win team with Salvador in the starting lineup and a 68 win team without him. It doesn't take a Math major to realize that this is a ten win swing.
This season alone, the Royals have played like an 88 win team with him starting and a 43 win team with him out. If the Royals can keep this up and Perez can start 90 of the team's final 101 games, the Royals will finish 82-80. Obviously, this isn't the record that we all hoped for entering the season, but that would at least make it a fun summer.
The numbers say that Perez isn't that valuable, but it is close. In 163 career games, he has accumulated a 5.2 fWAR and 6.1 bWAR. There is no doubt he is one of the most important players in the organization, but with all the disappointment in Hosmer and Moustakas it seems as though Perez's success has been overlooked.
Do me a favor. Next time you hear someone complain about the Royals inability to develop superstars that hit the ground running, be sure to point to the guy wearing the Royals mask behind home plate.
Over the past three seasons, the Royals are 78-85 when Salvador Perez makes an appearance and 77-83 (.481) when he starts the game. In that same time frame, the Royals are 172-213 good for a .447 winning percentage. Over the past three seasons, in games that Salvador Perez doesn't start, the Royals are 95-130, winning just 42 percent of their games.
When you readjust the numbers for averages over 162 games over the past three seasons, the Royals have performed like a 78 win team with Salvador in the starting lineup and a 68 win team without him. It doesn't take a Math major to realize that this is a ten win swing.
This season alone, the Royals have played like an 88 win team with him starting and a 43 win team with him out. If the Royals can keep this up and Perez can start 90 of the team's final 101 games, the Royals will finish 82-80. Obviously, this isn't the record that we all hoped for entering the season, but that would at least make it a fun summer.
The numbers say that Perez isn't that valuable, but it is close. In 163 career games, he has accumulated a 5.2 fWAR and 6.1 bWAR. There is no doubt he is one of the most important players in the organization, but with all the disappointment in Hosmer and Moustakas it seems as though Perez's success has been overlooked.
Do me a favor. Next time you hear someone complain about the Royals inability to develop superstars that hit the ground running, be sure to point to the guy wearing the Royals mask behind home plate.
Saturday, January 26, 2013
KC Claims Kottaras
The Royals found their 2013 backup catcher by claiming George Kottaras off of waivers this afternoon. Kottaras designated for assignment by the Oakland A's after he became expendable when they acquired John Jaso in a trade last week. Before the acquisition of Jaso, Kottaras appeared to be in line for a part time job splitting time with Derek Norris. Now Kottaras will be the primary back up for Salvador Perez in Kansas City. Kottaras avoided arbitration with the A's earlier in the winter and will be earning $1 million dollars this season.
The only way Kottaras will see regular playing time with the Royals would be due to an injury from Perez, so clearly Royals fans will prefer to not see too much from Kottaras this season. He does, however, represent a big upgrade in the back up backstop role over Brett Hayes. While Kottaras is not known as a great defender behind the plate, he can hold is own and has been a solid catcher for the Red Sox, Brewers, A's over the last few years.
At the plate Kottaras is a three true outcome hitter. Last season with the Brewers and A's he hit only .211, but got on base 35% of the time thanks to a walk percentage just over 17%. He also struck out 48 times in his 171 at bats, so he is suspect to the strike out. Kottaras has more power than most back-up catchers cranking nine homers last season.
It is a low risk pick up by the Royals that certainly helps the major league roster. Kottaras could be one of the better back-up catchers in baseball this year, and will surely handle his role behind Sal Perez well.
The only way Kottaras will see regular playing time with the Royals would be due to an injury from Perez, so clearly Royals fans will prefer to not see too much from Kottaras this season. He does, however, represent a big upgrade in the back up backstop role over Brett Hayes. While Kottaras is not known as a great defender behind the plate, he can hold is own and has been a solid catcher for the Red Sox, Brewers, A's over the last few years.
At the plate Kottaras is a three true outcome hitter. Last season with the Brewers and A's he hit only .211, but got on base 35% of the time thanks to a walk percentage just over 17%. He also struck out 48 times in his 171 at bats, so he is suspect to the strike out. Kottaras has more power than most back-up catchers cranking nine homers last season.
It is a low risk pick up by the Royals that certainly helps the major league roster. Kottaras could be one of the better back-up catchers in baseball this year, and will surely handle his role behind Sal Perez well.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Royal Rewind Wrap Up (10-22-12)
Yesterday as I was flipping through channels and trying to ignore the "must watch" TV of the third and final Presidential Debate, I came across "Royal Rewind" on Fox Sports Midwest. It had already been going on for a half hour or so, but I caught most of the last half. Here are some thoughts by a few Royals personnel from the Royal Rewind. I am only paraphrasing what they said.Ned Yost
- Losing Paulino and Duffy hurt the most. Rotation would hinge around those guys and both were doing great at time they got hurt.
Although Felipe Paulino was pitching like an "ace" before he got hurt, Danny Duffy wasn't pitching exceptional. Obviously, losing those two pitchers hurt the rotation badly, but one could also make an argument that losing Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez for the first half of the season was just as devastating. Oh and we were playing Yuniesky Betancourt.
- Moose has improved, gold glove caliber third baseman. Production was pretty good for first full year in big leagues.
Mike Moustakas has improved, especially on defense. He led all 3B in UZR in 2012 at 16.8. This mark put him ahead of the likes of David Wright, and Adrian Beltre. Moose was also 2nd among 3B in the Majors in UZR/150 at 15.2 only behind David Wright at 16.8. Moose was hot the first half of the season where he slugged .490 and hit 15 long balls. Post All-Star Break he was awful. He had an OPS of .586 with a putrid 5 homers. Don't get me wrong, I love Moustakas, and I still think in terms of his first year he had a real solid year overall. But if the Royals want to compete for division championships Moose (or Hoz) will both have to be All-Star caliber players in my opinion.
- Hoz really struggled
Boy did he. Eric Hosmer was incredibly tough to watch most of the year; and not just at the plate. He was hard to watch on defense as well, thanks to his windmill digging style and the tendency to fling the ball across the field. Like Moustakas, Hosmer will have to become an All-Star caliber player in order for the Royals to compete year in and year out.
- Ryan Lefebvre asked Ned something along the lines of it was as simple as starting pitching for the Royals to become a contender.
- Ned: "It's that simple really" Experience is extremely valuable and core is set on the field (lineup).
- Bullpen is efficient, need a couple starters and we should be in good shape.
Is it as simple as SP? Well in some ways yes it is. We desperately need 2 or 3 starters that can pitch somewhat like Jeremy Guthrie did for the Royals, or even Luis Mendoza. Luke Hochevar should not be in the rotation next year. Period. I know I'm not the only fan who is saying this, in fact, its most likely a choir of Royals fans saying this. I still think there is more to the Royals competing, and that is what I said earlier: Moustakas and Hosmer living up to star potential. Or at least one of them.
Steve Physioc
- Holland was fantastic and has makeup and mentality to be a closer
I agree, he looked great. Love his strikeout ability.
- Guthrie raised the entire rotation up, Mendoza pitched better (when Guthrie came) and Chen pitched better too.
Guthrie raised the rotation up because he pitched very well, Mendoza was consistently slightly above average and Bruce Chen was terrible for the most part, I don't get the love for Chen.
Rex Hudler
- Bruce Chen set the tone for rotation
- Led the entire season
- "Raise the Roof in 13"
Oh Rex. Chen really led the staff all year with his 5.07 ERA and becoming the human launching pad by giving up 33 dingers on the year. You amaze me Rex.
Monday, February 27, 2012
Royals Extend Salvador Perez
By now I'm sure all of you have heard the news; the Royals have extended catcher Salvador Perez. The deal is for a guaranteed five seasons, with club options for 2017, 2018, and 2019. Here is a breakdown of the money and the fWAR he'd have to produce for the Royals to break even:
Earlier this off-season, I thought there were two players that would be great candidates for extensions that were under the radar: Salvador Perez and Alcides Escobar. My rationale was that even if they struggled with the bat their defense would be strong enough to carry them through at least part of the deal. Both of these players are at defensive oriented positions and if they continue to be studs they can return fair value simply with their gloves.
Year: Money-WAR
2012: $750,000- 0.2
2013: $1,000,000- 0.2
2014: $1,500,000- 0.3
2015: $1,750,000- 0.4
2016: $2,000,000- 0. 4
2017*: $3,75,000- 0.8
2018*: $5,000,000- 1.1
2019*: $6,000,000- 1.3
$21,750,000- 4.8
Incentives: $5,000,000- 1.1
Total: $26.750,000- 5.9
Obviously you can debate how accurate 1 WAR is worth, but by using fangraphs 1 WAR per every $4.5 million on the open market, here is what Salvador Perez would have to do in order to return market value. Unfortunately, in this situation the open market isn't the best way to evaluate Salvador Perez. The reason is because for the next three years he was going to be paid the league minimum regardless. The following three seasons his salary would have been reflect of his market value on a 40-60-80 scale.
We could go into hypotheticals in order to estimate Perez's pay depending on different levels of performance. Instead I am going to use a comp, for this case let's use Miguel Montero. (This is the player I had been using for Perez's arbitration figures in my payroll estimates for future seasons.)
Montero made $2 million in his first year of arbitration, and $3.2 million in his second. If he keeps up his current pace he'll be due around $5 million for his final season of arbitration. For his three arbitration seasons, Montero should make around $11-13 million during his team controlled seasons. Perez will make $10.75 mill.
Maybe a better comparison for Perez would be defensive first catcher like Yadier Molina. In Molina's first six seasons he made $10.69 million. However, during those first six seasons Molina was never able to post an OPS above .750. I think Molina's a great comparison for Perez, but after a season that saw him hit .331/.361/.473 (albeit in 158 PA), I think most of us hope that Perez will do more with the stick than Yadi.
Of course the big draw to the contract, isn't obtaining cost control through Perez's team controlled years. (Although, if he develops as the Royals hope that will be a HUGE bonus as well.) The huge part of this extension is the Royals ability to control Perez through 2019. The Royals have club options for the final year of arbitration and two of Perez's free agent seasons.
If Perez totally tanks the Royals are out around $7 million. (Less than the one year contract Edwin Jackson just received.) If Perez is simply Alcides Escobar with the bat, but a stud defensively this deal could be extremely fair. If Perez turns into the Hall of Famer that Art Stewart predicts, this deal will look like one of the most team friendly contracts in the history of the game.
Earlier this off-season, I thought there were two players that would be great candidates for extensions that were under the radar: Salvador Perez and Alcides Escobar. My rationale was that even if they struggled with the bat their defense would be strong enough to carry them through at least part of the deal. Both of these players are at defensive oriented positions and if they continue to be studs they can return fair value simply with their gloves.
The second reason, that I believed both would make good candidates is that neither were bonus babies. Any extension would be a life changing sum of money. Not that the sum wouldn't be life changing for Hosmer or Moustakas, but the fact that they are already millionaires makes it a bit easier to turn down a major offer.
In the Dayton Moore era, the argument can be made that the Royals have extended every deserving player, not name Alex Gordon (fingers crossed). However, these extensions have all occurred post arbitration. Prior to today, the Royals hadn't agreed to a player extension of this type. The fact the Royals have now completed one, tells me that they aren't just paying lip service to the idea.
Whether or not Scott Boras would allow Eric Hosmer or Mike Moustakas to sign an extension of this type is up in the air. But as of now we know for sure that the Royals would be open to one. I'm aware that it takes two to tango, but tonight I feel more optimistic than I did twenty-four hours ago.
Photo taken from MinorLeagueBall.com.
Photo taken from MinorLeagueBall.com.
Thursday, August 11, 2011
An Ominous Sign?
Last night the future became today for Royals fans. For eight and a half innings we were able to daydream about the future by witnessing the present. Johnny Giavotella hit a triple to the gap. Salvador Perez was dominating the Rays' running game. Felipe Paulino gave up just one run in 5 innings.
The telecast even asked the viewers which Royals player was going to win a Major award first: Salvador Perez, Johnny Giavotella, Mike Moustakas, or Eric Hosmer. (As if it was a given that all of these guys would develop into star caliber players.)
When Melky Cabrera hit a three run home run in the top of the ninth it was an awesome way to cap off the evening. Aaron Crow was then rushed in from the bullpen and we he took the mound he was surrounded by five other players that hadn't yet turned twenty-five.
But then the Royals collapsed. For a team that had for eight and a half innings had looked an awful lot like the fabled 2014 World Series Champion Royals, they looked an awful lot like the 2004, 100 loss Royals in the bottom of the 9th.
To start the inning Ned Yost rushed Aaron Crow to the mound for one reason: a statistic. Remember that mantra "You play to win the game." Well in baseball, Managers play to build up statistics. I don't want to get deep into my feelings on how the modern bullpen is operated, but when Soria was already warmed up and ready to go he should have been put into the game. It isn't as if he has been over used lately.
Instead when the Royals took the four run lead, Ned Yost frantically had to alter his plans because Soria had no place pitching in a non-save situation. So the route Yost took was to rush in a pitcher that hasn't had his best stuff since the All Star break. Sure we learned he was pitching through some ailments. But even if those have recovered, the stuff hasn't.
For a guy that has lacked crispness since the break, rushing in from the bullpen was a recipe for disaster. Two batters later Yost was pulling Crow from the game and calling for his closer. Soria by the way had already warmed up once, sat back down and then as quickly as Crow was forced to warm up for the 9th Soria was asked to rewarm up to relieve Crow.
A few hitters, some shoddy defense, a throw that bounced off a base runner, no one backing up third, and five runs later the Royals were exiting the field without the opportunity to shake hands in the middle of the diamond.
I was an extremely frustrating finale to an otherwise awesome night. It sure felt like 2004, and until this team can put together 9 quality innings on an everyday basis there will be other gmes when we are reminded of the past as well.
But for now we'll try to write this off as a growing pains, a common problem for young teams. Let's just hope we can get them out of our system fast, because I don't know if Royals fans can handle much more bad baseball when the light at the end of the tunnel is supposed to be blinding.
The telecast even asked the viewers which Royals player was going to win a Major award first: Salvador Perez, Johnny Giavotella, Mike Moustakas, or Eric Hosmer. (As if it was a given that all of these guys would develop into star caliber players.)
When Melky Cabrera hit a three run home run in the top of the ninth it was an awesome way to cap off the evening. Aaron Crow was then rushed in from the bullpen and we he took the mound he was surrounded by five other players that hadn't yet turned twenty-five.
But then the Royals collapsed. For a team that had for eight and a half innings had looked an awful lot like the fabled 2014 World Series Champion Royals, they looked an awful lot like the 2004, 100 loss Royals in the bottom of the 9th.
To start the inning Ned Yost rushed Aaron Crow to the mound for one reason: a statistic. Remember that mantra "You play to win the game." Well in baseball, Managers play to build up statistics. I don't want to get deep into my feelings on how the modern bullpen is operated, but when Soria was already warmed up and ready to go he should have been put into the game. It isn't as if he has been over used lately.
Instead when the Royals took the four run lead, Ned Yost frantically had to alter his plans because Soria had no place pitching in a non-save situation. So the route Yost took was to rush in a pitcher that hasn't had his best stuff since the All Star break. Sure we learned he was pitching through some ailments. But even if those have recovered, the stuff hasn't.
For a guy that has lacked crispness since the break, rushing in from the bullpen was a recipe for disaster. Two batters later Yost was pulling Crow from the game and calling for his closer. Soria by the way had already warmed up once, sat back down and then as quickly as Crow was forced to warm up for the 9th Soria was asked to rewarm up to relieve Crow.
A few hitters, some shoddy defense, a throw that bounced off a base runner, no one backing up third, and five runs later the Royals were exiting the field without the opportunity to shake hands in the middle of the diamond.
I was an extremely frustrating finale to an otherwise awesome night. It sure felt like 2004, and until this team can put together 9 quality innings on an everyday basis there will be other gmes when we are reminded of the past as well.
But for now we'll try to write this off as a growing pains, a common problem for young teams. Let's just hope we can get them out of our system fast, because I don't know if Royals fans can handle much more bad baseball when the light at the end of the tunnel is supposed to be blinding.
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Perez Promoted to the Big Show
In surprisingly sneaky fashion, catching prospect Salvador Perez was promoted to Kansas City yesterday evening. The spot was opened up when Brayan Pena left the team to join his wife, who was delivering a child.
The interesting part of all of this is the timing of the move. I am sure the Royals imagined that whenever Pena would leave the team to join his wife they would be promoting Manny Pina, thus allowing Salvador Perez a couple more weeks in Omaha. However, what they didn't foresee was Matt Treanor hitting the 7 day disabled list due to a concussion. When this happened the Royals were forced to promote Manny Pina sooner rather than later.
When Treanor wasn't healthy enough to return in time for Pena's paternal leave the Royals had to make a decision. They could either give a guy like Cody Clark a few days in the Majors or they could push Salvador Perez right on through to the Majors even though he had only played 12 games in Omaha. I don't believe the Royals ever really considered the first of these options.
So here we are, Salvador Perez is getting the call to the Majors and will be the everyday guy until another roster move comes. Perez was hitting .290/.331/.437 for the season between Northwest Arkansas and Omaha. He is considered a top notch defensive catcher praised for his 1.8 second pop times.
John Wathan even called Perez the top prospect in the system. Royals Scout legend Art Stewart even said "if he doesn't go to the Hall of Fame, I'll go into the furniture business." Clearly this is a guy that the Royals brass love.
So far this season the Royals haven't appeared to have rushed a prospect to the Majors. Every guy to get the call has proven himself in the Minors. (Except for Aaron Crow, but he was moved to the pen and was lights out last Spring.) I do not believe that Salvador Perez is ready with the bat. But I do believe that the Royals feel he is Major League ready.
In fact last Spring Ned Yost said himself that he thought Perez was a Major League ready catcher. Quite frankly the Royals value defense at catcher more than they probably value defense at any other position. For this reason Brayan Pena has never been given an everyday shot at being the guy.
The Royals now have two defensive first catchers on the Major League roster that are under control for at least six seasons a piece. But common sense would indicate that the Royals would not feel comfortable entering next season without a veteran backstop in the picture.
I wouldn't bet against the Royals bringing in a veteran, but I am not so sure that it is a given either. Ned Yost seems to already be in love with Salvador Perez and we have also heard that he is a big fan of Manny Pina. I could see a scenario in which he decides to embrace his young defensive tandem and goes into next season with just the two of them.
Brayan Pena should only be gone for a few days, and Matt Treanor could return at anytime. Whenever either of these thigns happen, I expect Manny Pina to go down to Omaha. But when September rolls around I wouldn't be shocked if the Royals carried four catchers on the roster.
I'm absolutely pumped to watch this team tonight. The lineup we see tonight very likely will be the lineup we see on Opening Day of 2012, barring a few minor adjustments. Six of the nine players are homegrown and seven of the nine are under team control for at least two more seasons. Not to mention that Alcides Escobar just became the oldest player in the infield at 24.
The lineup is in place and the clock is ticking for the Royals to make their move in the AL Central. The Process is now pouring into the Major League team and while these players will need time to develop at the Major League level, the expectations for this group of players are already present.
It isn't fair to expect these prospects to perform immediately, but just watching them grow together on the grandest stage should be entertaining enough for the next month and a half. Go Royals!
The interesting part of all of this is the timing of the move. I am sure the Royals imagined that whenever Pena would leave the team to join his wife they would be promoting Manny Pina, thus allowing Salvador Perez a couple more weeks in Omaha. However, what they didn't foresee was Matt Treanor hitting the 7 day disabled list due to a concussion. When this happened the Royals were forced to promote Manny Pina sooner rather than later.
When Treanor wasn't healthy enough to return in time for Pena's paternal leave the Royals had to make a decision. They could either give a guy like Cody Clark a few days in the Majors or they could push Salvador Perez right on through to the Majors even though he had only played 12 games in Omaha. I don't believe the Royals ever really considered the first of these options.
So here we are, Salvador Perez is getting the call to the Majors and will be the everyday guy until another roster move comes. Perez was hitting .290/.331/.437 for the season between Northwest Arkansas and Omaha. He is considered a top notch defensive catcher praised for his 1.8 second pop times.
John Wathan even called Perez the top prospect in the system. Royals Scout legend Art Stewart even said "if he doesn't go to the Hall of Fame, I'll go into the furniture business." Clearly this is a guy that the Royals brass love.
So far this season the Royals haven't appeared to have rushed a prospect to the Majors. Every guy to get the call has proven himself in the Minors. (Except for Aaron Crow, but he was moved to the pen and was lights out last Spring.) I do not believe that Salvador Perez is ready with the bat. But I do believe that the Royals feel he is Major League ready.
In fact last Spring Ned Yost said himself that he thought Perez was a Major League ready catcher. Quite frankly the Royals value defense at catcher more than they probably value defense at any other position. For this reason Brayan Pena has never been given an everyday shot at being the guy.
The Royals now have two defensive first catchers on the Major League roster that are under control for at least six seasons a piece. But common sense would indicate that the Royals would not feel comfortable entering next season without a veteran backstop in the picture.
I wouldn't bet against the Royals bringing in a veteran, but I am not so sure that it is a given either. Ned Yost seems to already be in love with Salvador Perez and we have also heard that he is a big fan of Manny Pina. I could see a scenario in which he decides to embrace his young defensive tandem and goes into next season with just the two of them.
Brayan Pena should only be gone for a few days, and Matt Treanor could return at anytime. Whenever either of these thigns happen, I expect Manny Pina to go down to Omaha. But when September rolls around I wouldn't be shocked if the Royals carried four catchers on the roster.
I'm absolutely pumped to watch this team tonight. The lineup we see tonight very likely will be the lineup we see on Opening Day of 2012, barring a few minor adjustments. Six of the nine players are homegrown and seven of the nine are under team control for at least two more seasons. Not to mention that Alcides Escobar just became the oldest player in the infield at 24.
The lineup is in place and the clock is ticking for the Royals to make their move in the AL Central. The Process is now pouring into the Major League team and while these players will need time to develop at the Major League level, the expectations for this group of players are already present.
It isn't fair to expect these prospects to perform immediately, but just watching them grow together on the grandest stage should be entertaining enough for the next month and a half. Go Royals!
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
What are we waiting for?
Bob Dutton made some noise on the Royals blogosphere and twitterverse last night when he released a story stating that the "goal" of Dayton Moore and the front office was to get Johnny Giavotella 100-150 Major League at bats this season.
So what would it take for the Royals to meet that goal? Well there are twenty-five games in September and considering that Yost is planning on starting Giavotella everyday he could get close to the lower end of that goal should he be called up on September 1.
More likely though Giavotella will need to be called up in mid-August and handed the everyday duty the rest of the season in order to comfortably fall into that 100-150 at bat range. So my question is this: if you are already virtually naming him the starter for the last month or month and a half of the season why not bring him up now?
Perhaps, there are service time issues that the Royals can benefit from should they wait until mid-August? Well, unless the Royals wait until several weeks into the 2012 season Giavotella will be a free agent after the 2017 season. The same time as Moustakas, Hosmer, Duffy, and the bevy of relievers. Also, the Royals are way past the Super Two cutoff so that is no concern either. So obviously service time isn't the reason he is still in Omaha.
I guess maybe the Royals feel like he isn't quite Major League ready. That would be a great reason for Giavotella to still be in Omaha, except for it is obviously not true. In fact Giavotella has proven himself more in Omaha than any rookie on the Major League roster not named Eric Hosmer.
Gio currently is hitting .339/.391/.482 in Omaha and since the all star break his line has been .392/.427/.581. In the last two months he has posted an OPS over 1.000. No, it is pretty clear the bat is Major League ready. So that leaves just one reason why Giavotella isn't in the Majors.
Obviously Giavotella is blocked by a superior player. Wait... What? The player blocking Giavotella is Chris Getz? The guy that has set a record for Royals at bats without a home run? The guy that is hitting .259/.317/.288 for the season?
So obviously there is no good reason for Giavotella still being in Triple-A. My guess is that one more cold streak by Getz will result in a move. Obviously the Royals would like to try and flip Getz for something useful, but I can't see why a team would give anything up for him.
Getz does have options remaining, but he will be arbitration eligible for the first time this winter making him more expensive. (Although I can't imagine him making seven figures.) He could go back to Omaha and be a back up guy should Giavotella fail miserably or get hurt in 2012. This is the solution I would take with Getz. Control inventory and take advantage of depth.
The Royals have already made it clear that they want Giavotella to be the starter for at least the final month of the season. So why wait? I realize that if they bring him up now they will probably net him close to 200 Major League at bats. But seriously, since when is it bad to exceed a goal? Giavotella has warranted a promtoion and is ready to go. Give him the rest of the at bats as the starting second sacker for the rest of the season and he should be ready to hit the ground running in 2012.
Giavotella isn't the only player deserving of a Major League spot. There is also the issue for Lorenzo Cain. Considering the current shape of the roster I'd prefer to keep Cain in Omaha for the next month allowing him to play everyday. Once the Omaha season ends bring him up and do your best to rotate him in and out of the lineup.
Also deserving are David Lough and Clint Robinson are also on the 40 man roster. Both have also done plenty to warrant promotions in September. There won't be enough playing time to go around to truly benefit them from a skills development standpoint. But I'd like to see them both called up to give them a taste of the Big Leagues, while rewarding them for their hard work and quality performances over the past few seasons.
Salvador Perez and Kelvin Herrera also have gotten call ups to the Triple-A recently. Both are Rule 5 eligible this winter so, should an opportunity present itself, both should be given September call ups as well. This could give them each about five weeks of playing time in Omaha that would include a playoff run (hopefully). Plus a few weeks in the Majors allowing them an opportunity to experience what Major League life is like.
The Royals are the youngest team in the Majors. But don't think the youth movement is done. We can only hope that Moustakas and Hosmer were the initial outburst from a consistent pipeline of talent.
So what would it take for the Royals to meet that goal? Well there are twenty-five games in September and considering that Yost is planning on starting Giavotella everyday he could get close to the lower end of that goal should he be called up on September 1.
More likely though Giavotella will need to be called up in mid-August and handed the everyday duty the rest of the season in order to comfortably fall into that 100-150 at bat range. So my question is this: if you are already virtually naming him the starter for the last month or month and a half of the season why not bring him up now?
Perhaps, there are service time issues that the Royals can benefit from should they wait until mid-August? Well, unless the Royals wait until several weeks into the 2012 season Giavotella will be a free agent after the 2017 season. The same time as Moustakas, Hosmer, Duffy, and the bevy of relievers. Also, the Royals are way past the Super Two cutoff so that is no concern either. So obviously service time isn't the reason he is still in Omaha.
I guess maybe the Royals feel like he isn't quite Major League ready. That would be a great reason for Giavotella to still be in Omaha, except for it is obviously not true. In fact Giavotella has proven himself more in Omaha than any rookie on the Major League roster not named Eric Hosmer.
Gio currently is hitting .339/.391/.482 in Omaha and since the all star break his line has been .392/.427/.581. In the last two months he has posted an OPS over 1.000. No, it is pretty clear the bat is Major League ready. So that leaves just one reason why Giavotella isn't in the Majors.
Obviously Giavotella is blocked by a superior player. Wait... What? The player blocking Giavotella is Chris Getz? The guy that has set a record for Royals at bats without a home run? The guy that is hitting .259/.317/.288 for the season?
So obviously there is no good reason for Giavotella still being in Triple-A. My guess is that one more cold streak by Getz will result in a move. Obviously the Royals would like to try and flip Getz for something useful, but I can't see why a team would give anything up for him.
Getz does have options remaining, but he will be arbitration eligible for the first time this winter making him more expensive. (Although I can't imagine him making seven figures.) He could go back to Omaha and be a back up guy should Giavotella fail miserably or get hurt in 2012. This is the solution I would take with Getz. Control inventory and take advantage of depth.
The Royals have already made it clear that they want Giavotella to be the starter for at least the final month of the season. So why wait? I realize that if they bring him up now they will probably net him close to 200 Major League at bats. But seriously, since when is it bad to exceed a goal? Giavotella has warranted a promtoion and is ready to go. Give him the rest of the at bats as the starting second sacker for the rest of the season and he should be ready to hit the ground running in 2012.
Giavotella isn't the only player deserving of a Major League spot. There is also the issue for Lorenzo Cain. Considering the current shape of the roster I'd prefer to keep Cain in Omaha for the next month allowing him to play everyday. Once the Omaha season ends bring him up and do your best to rotate him in and out of the lineup.
Also deserving are David Lough and Clint Robinson are also on the 40 man roster. Both have also done plenty to warrant promotions in September. There won't be enough playing time to go around to truly benefit them from a skills development standpoint. But I'd like to see them both called up to give them a taste of the Big Leagues, while rewarding them for their hard work and quality performances over the past few seasons.
Salvador Perez and Kelvin Herrera also have gotten call ups to the Triple-A recently. Both are Rule 5 eligible this winter so, should an opportunity present itself, both should be given September call ups as well. This could give them each about five weeks of playing time in Omaha that would include a playoff run (hopefully). Plus a few weeks in the Majors allowing them an opportunity to experience what Major League life is like.
The Royals are the youngest team in the Majors. But don't think the youth movement is done. We can only hope that Moustakas and Hosmer were the initial outburst from a consistent pipeline of talent.
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
The Latin America Front
The Royals made news again on the Latin American front late last night when they signed 16 year old Dominican shortstop Adalberto Mondesi to a $2 million deal. (Happy Birthday Adalberto!) Of course those of us that follow the Royals closely knew that when July 27 rolled around this deal would finally be announced, but it is nonetheless and exciting move.
Mondesi is praised for his sharp glove and good speed. Reports are that his 60 yard dash comes in between 6.6 to 6.8 seconds. Also, while it isn't fair to judge Mondesi based off of his father's talents, we could expect him to possess a cannon for an arm. Even if this doesn't turn out to be the case having Major League bloodlines is a huge bonus for a prospect of any type. Especially a young Latin American.
Also in Mondesi's favor is that he was born in Los Angeles. He has spent some time in the USA, and given how much time his father spent in the country he should be able to adapt to US culture rather quickly. This is the third big time Latin American shortstop the Royals have signed in the past two seasons. They are obviously working hard to build the depth at the lower levels.
Mondesi is a switch hitter. He stands 5-11 and weighs 160 pounds. He ranked as the 12th best Latin American prospect in this year's class according to Baseball America. The Royals also added the top prospect on the list Elier Hernandez and two other quality prospects from Venezuela in catcher Luis Lara and shortstop Angelo Castellano.
Mondesi is just the latest work done by the Royals International Scouting Department. Of course we all know that when Dayton Moore took over he promised to build the Royals into a Major player in the Latin American market, a market that is about relationships as much as dollars in many situations.
It took awhile for the Royals to build the relationships necessary in order to acquire the top talents, but even the Royals earliest work is already starting to pay divedends at the upper level. Kelvin Herrera and Salvador Perez both were signed in Dayton Moore's first summer on the job and it is fitting that on the same day they would both be promoted to the highest level of Minor League Baseball.
Herrera has always had an electric arm, but injuries have really derailed his career. That is until this season when the Royals moved him to the pen to protect him. For the year he has a 1.42 era with 52 strikeouts to just 8 walks. He got knocked around in the Futures Game a bit, but he is going to be a dominant reliever unless the Royals get ballsy and attempt to move him back to starter.
Perez broke out last year when he was the youngest player in the Carolina League and held his own by hitting .290. But he really took off in Spring Training when Manager Ned Yost declared him Major League ready with the glove. Several months later the glove is still top notch and as a twenty-one year old is hitting .283/.329/.427 in Double-A. This is a solid line but consider this in the second half he's hitting .333/.374/.571.
It appears that the Royals have worked extremely hard to improve the International Operations of the organization. But it is important to remember that the signings are only the beginning. Dayton Moore talks about the development of Latin American players as being a seven year process. Of course some develop faster, but it takes time.
Despite focusing much of their drafting energy on supplementing the first wave the last couple of seasons, the Royals were also working hard on the second wave. For this reason there was already a solid base for the Royals when they shifted their draft focus back to high upside high school guys in this year's draft. This is something that was nonexistent when the Royals built the first wave and for this reason the second wave could be just as impressive or more than the first.
Mondesi is praised for his sharp glove and good speed. Reports are that his 60 yard dash comes in between 6.6 to 6.8 seconds. Also, while it isn't fair to judge Mondesi based off of his father's talents, we could expect him to possess a cannon for an arm. Even if this doesn't turn out to be the case having Major League bloodlines is a huge bonus for a prospect of any type. Especially a young Latin American.
Also in Mondesi's favor is that he was born in Los Angeles. He has spent some time in the USA, and given how much time his father spent in the country he should be able to adapt to US culture rather quickly. This is the third big time Latin American shortstop the Royals have signed in the past two seasons. They are obviously working hard to build the depth at the lower levels.
Mondesi is a switch hitter. He stands 5-11 and weighs 160 pounds. He ranked as the 12th best Latin American prospect in this year's class according to Baseball America. The Royals also added the top prospect on the list Elier Hernandez and two other quality prospects from Venezuela in catcher Luis Lara and shortstop Angelo Castellano.
Mondesi is just the latest work done by the Royals International Scouting Department. Of course we all know that when Dayton Moore took over he promised to build the Royals into a Major player in the Latin American market, a market that is about relationships as much as dollars in many situations.
It took awhile for the Royals to build the relationships necessary in order to acquire the top talents, but even the Royals earliest work is already starting to pay divedends at the upper level. Kelvin Herrera and Salvador Perez both were signed in Dayton Moore's first summer on the job and it is fitting that on the same day they would both be promoted to the highest level of Minor League Baseball.
Herrera has always had an electric arm, but injuries have really derailed his career. That is until this season when the Royals moved him to the pen to protect him. For the year he has a 1.42 era with 52 strikeouts to just 8 walks. He got knocked around in the Futures Game a bit, but he is going to be a dominant reliever unless the Royals get ballsy and attempt to move him back to starter.
Perez broke out last year when he was the youngest player in the Carolina League and held his own by hitting .290. But he really took off in Spring Training when Manager Ned Yost declared him Major League ready with the glove. Several months later the glove is still top notch and as a twenty-one year old is hitting .283/.329/.427 in Double-A. This is a solid line but consider this in the second half he's hitting .333/.374/.571.
It appears that the Royals have worked extremely hard to improve the International Operations of the organization. But it is important to remember that the signings are only the beginning. Dayton Moore talks about the development of Latin American players as being a seven year process. Of course some develop faster, but it takes time.
Despite focusing much of their drafting energy on supplementing the first wave the last couple of seasons, the Royals were also working hard on the second wave. For this reason there was already a solid base for the Royals when they shifted their draft focus back to high upside high school guys in this year's draft. This is something that was nonexistent when the Royals built the first wave and for this reason the second wave could be just as impressive or more than the first.
Thursday, July 21, 2011
What We Need for 2012: Part 1
As trade winds begin to swirl there are discussions regarding what the Royals need to acquire. According to people that have a lot more information and contacts than me, the Royals are seeking catching and Major League ready starting pitching.
You can't blame them. The Royals have one legitimate starting catching prospect playing full season ball, and that prospect didn't even make most people's preseason top ten catching prospect lists.
Don't get me wrong, Salvador Perez isn't a bad catching prospect. He is a stud defensively and I have been impressed with how his bat has progressed. But the Royals shouldn't be putting all of their eggs in one basket for this guy. He isn’t an elite guy in the Moustakas or Hosmer mold, there has to be a backup plan.
When it comes to pitching the Royals find themselves near the bottom of the rankings when it comes to team era. When you consider that the bullpen has been a bright spot all year long it isn’t pretty imagining just the starter’s numbers.
Of course it didn't help matters when Sean O'Sullivan and Vin Mazzaro were granted time as starters. Not to mention that Kyle Davies has been horrible again and Hochevar has seemed to take two steps back for every one step forward.
So where does that leave us when we look to 2012? The year we are finally supposed to turn the corner and make a some noise in the AL Central. The rotation has to be addressed. At least we won’t have to build from scratch, because the way I see it we have two guys that absolutely deserve a spot as of now: Felipe Paulino and Danny Duffy.
Paulino has been a total disrespect to what the waiver player is supposed to be. You aren't supposed to be able to acquire rotation caliber pitchers with potentially dominating stuff. Let alone a guy that almost immediately is a top of the rotation guy. But that is what Paulino has become since landing in Kansas City.
So far in Kansas City, Paulino has posted a 3.60 era with a 53 strikeouts and just 12 walks in 55 innings of play. For the season he has an xFIP of 3.14 which includes his time in Colorado when he got lit up like a firecracker. Paulino is under team control through 2014, and if he can keep up what he has done thus far in Kansas City then there is no reason he shouldn't be a part of the rotation for the next several seasons.
The other guy that is a lock is Danny Duffy. Duffy has definitely struggled with his command and pitch counts, but he is a rookie and over the course of his last 3 starts he has been a top flight starter with an xFIP under 3.
Duffy has posted an above average strikeout rate and has displayed the third fastest heater amongst lefty starters with his 93.5 mph mark. The stuff is dynamite and if he can harness his control and trust it enough to challenge top flight hitters he will be more than fine.
With Paulino and Duffy the Royals have found 40% of next season’s rotation. It isn’t a stretch for both to be quality mid rotation guys and if they can improve could even be number 2 starters.
So that leaves three spots that the Royals need to fill. I suppose at this point we should assume that one of those spots will be occupied by the enigmatic Luke Hochevar. Hochevar has been incredibly frustrating this season and I refuse to buy into the problem solved talk every time he puts together one good start. If he can string together several in a row and put to proper use the stuff that enabled him to be a top draft choice, I'll reconsider my stance.
For now though, in my mind Hochevar has started down a path that could lead Royals fans to view him as Kyle Davies part two. For this reason he'll be back in the Royals rotation next season, but without a turnaround second half we really shouldn't expect anything more than a back end guy.
So now we are up to 60%. That is until we add Aaron Crow into the fold. According to CBS Fantasy Sports, Dayton Moore has confirmed to MLB Network Radio that the Royals will move Crow to the rotation for 2012.
I like this move. Crow's stuff reminds me a bit of Greinke's. His fastball can reach the upper 90s with life and his slider can be unhittable. The huge difference between the two is that Crow's command can't even compare to Greinke's. Nonetheless I hope that time in the pen will play a similar role in Crow's transition to the Big League rotation just as it did for Greinke.
Crow has front of the rotation stuff. But we should curb our enthusiasm, considering just a year ago he was about to be demoted to Wilmington after a dreadful first half in Northwest Arkansas. I'm not saying I don't think he can still be a front of the rotation guy, but when it comes to expectations for 2012, Crow shouldn't be the guy we are counting on to turn our rotation into a team strength (although it is possible).
The Royals have also suggested that they will consider moving Greg Holland to the rotation as well. Holland has been totally filthy in the pen this year, however, he himself has said that when he started in Wilmington he was unable to repeat his delivery enough as a starter to get past the first few innings of the game. I can't really imagine Holland making the move to the rotation and if he did I don't think I would feel comfortable with the arms in the bullpen without him.
End of Part 1
Sorry for the Lord of the Rings style ending but unfortunately this post really took on a life of its own so I have decided to cut it into parts. So I’ll get the next part up shortly.
You can't blame them. The Royals have one legitimate starting catching prospect playing full season ball, and that prospect didn't even make most people's preseason top ten catching prospect lists.
Don't get me wrong, Salvador Perez isn't a bad catching prospect. He is a stud defensively and I have been impressed with how his bat has progressed. But the Royals shouldn't be putting all of their eggs in one basket for this guy. He isn’t an elite guy in the Moustakas or Hosmer mold, there has to be a backup plan.
When it comes to pitching the Royals find themselves near the bottom of the rankings when it comes to team era. When you consider that the bullpen has been a bright spot all year long it isn’t pretty imagining just the starter’s numbers.
Of course it didn't help matters when Sean O'Sullivan and Vin Mazzaro were granted time as starters. Not to mention that Kyle Davies has been horrible again and Hochevar has seemed to take two steps back for every one step forward.
So where does that leave us when we look to 2012? The year we are finally supposed to turn the corner and make a some noise in the AL Central. The rotation has to be addressed. At least we won’t have to build from scratch, because the way I see it we have two guys that absolutely deserve a spot as of now: Felipe Paulino and Danny Duffy.
Paulino has been a total disrespect to what the waiver player is supposed to be. You aren't supposed to be able to acquire rotation caliber pitchers with potentially dominating stuff. Let alone a guy that almost immediately is a top of the rotation guy. But that is what Paulino has become since landing in Kansas City.
So far in Kansas City, Paulino has posted a 3.60 era with a 53 strikeouts and just 12 walks in 55 innings of play. For the season he has an xFIP of 3.14 which includes his time in Colorado when he got lit up like a firecracker. Paulino is under team control through 2014, and if he can keep up what he has done thus far in Kansas City then there is no reason he shouldn't be a part of the rotation for the next several seasons.
The other guy that is a lock is Danny Duffy. Duffy has definitely struggled with his command and pitch counts, but he is a rookie and over the course of his last 3 starts he has been a top flight starter with an xFIP under 3.
Duffy has posted an above average strikeout rate and has displayed the third fastest heater amongst lefty starters with his 93.5 mph mark. The stuff is dynamite and if he can harness his control and trust it enough to challenge top flight hitters he will be more than fine.
With Paulino and Duffy the Royals have found 40% of next season’s rotation. It isn’t a stretch for both to be quality mid rotation guys and if they can improve could even be number 2 starters.
So that leaves three spots that the Royals need to fill. I suppose at this point we should assume that one of those spots will be occupied by the enigmatic Luke Hochevar. Hochevar has been incredibly frustrating this season and I refuse to buy into the problem solved talk every time he puts together one good start. If he can string together several in a row and put to proper use the stuff that enabled him to be a top draft choice, I'll reconsider my stance.
For now though, in my mind Hochevar has started down a path that could lead Royals fans to view him as Kyle Davies part two. For this reason he'll be back in the Royals rotation next season, but without a turnaround second half we really shouldn't expect anything more than a back end guy.
So now we are up to 60%. That is until we add Aaron Crow into the fold. According to CBS Fantasy Sports, Dayton Moore has confirmed to MLB Network Radio that the Royals will move Crow to the rotation for 2012.
I like this move. Crow's stuff reminds me a bit of Greinke's. His fastball can reach the upper 90s with life and his slider can be unhittable. The huge difference between the two is that Crow's command can't even compare to Greinke's. Nonetheless I hope that time in the pen will play a similar role in Crow's transition to the Big League rotation just as it did for Greinke.
Crow has front of the rotation stuff. But we should curb our enthusiasm, considering just a year ago he was about to be demoted to Wilmington after a dreadful first half in Northwest Arkansas. I'm not saying I don't think he can still be a front of the rotation guy, but when it comes to expectations for 2012, Crow shouldn't be the guy we are counting on to turn our rotation into a team strength (although it is possible).
The Royals have also suggested that they will consider moving Greg Holland to the rotation as well. Holland has been totally filthy in the pen this year, however, he himself has said that when he started in Wilmington he was unable to repeat his delivery enough as a starter to get past the first few innings of the game. I can't really imagine Holland making the move to the rotation and if he did I don't think I would feel comfortable with the arms in the bullpen without him.
End of Part 1
Sorry for the Lord of the Rings style ending but unfortunately this post really took on a life of its own so I have decided to cut it into parts. So I’ll get the next part up shortly.
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Prospect Countdown: 15-11
15. Johnny Giavotella 2B
Over a year ago I defended the Ankiel signing because I felt as though he was a good buy low candidate and he would be a tradable commodity come the July deadline. This turned out to be true and in exchange for a couple months of Ankiel and perhaps the only Royal to ever be booed in his home opener, Kyle Farnsworth the Royals were able to add a piece to the future. Of course I am talking about Jesse Chavez.... I mean Tim Collins.
Collins instantly became a favorite among Royals prospect buffs due to his diminutive stature and his awesome K rate, which as you can see in the graph above has been at 13.3 per 9 innings in his minor league career. Collins stands in at 5-7, 155. When he stands on the hill he turns himself in a cock eye fashion and a delivery that only shows his back at the beginning. He then hurls not only himself at the hitter but also hurls mid 90s heat that he occasionally mixes with a plus hammer curveball.
Collins has closer potential, but should become a very strong setup man for the Kansas City Royals for the next six or seven seasons. This Spring the Royals have Collins working from both sides of the rubber in an effort to add even more deception to his already deceptive delivery.
Even though he is not yet on the 40-man roster I expect that he will open the season in the Major League Bullpen. If this turns out not to be the case, it will be a result of roster manipulation and inventory control and not because of Collins poor performance. Either way we should see Collins in Kansas City sooner rather than later.
13. Salvador Perez C
Salvador Perez was signed out Venezuela in 2006 as part of Dayton Moore's first international signing class. So far he has yielded extremely promising results. So promising in fact that I predict Perez to break out in a big way in 2011 when he spends the season at Arvest Ballpark for the Northwest Arkansas Naturals.
Much has been made of Perez this Spring as Yost has been enamored with his defensive abilities. Pitchers love to throw to him and runners hate to run on him. Perez blocks balls with ease and records an astounding 1.8 second pop time to second base.
In the Royals intrasquad game perhaps the organizations best basestealer Jarrod Dyson attempted to rob second base from Perez. However, when Dyson normally would go into his slide he found that the ball was at second waiting for him. After the play Dyson was quoted as saying "I aint never got thrown out by that much."
It isn't just Perez's glove that has the organization and me so excited. As the youngest hitter in the Carolina League in 2010 he was able to hit .290/.322/.411 a line that is reminiscent of Sandy Alomar Jr. a player that Perez is often compared to. He also was able to hit seven homers, which was the highest total of his young career.
Yost believes that Perez is major league ready, but because he hasn't had a single at bat in the upper minors that is where he will spend 2011. Nonetheless it seems that the presence of Perez in the system was a major factor in the organization's decision to move Myers to the outfield. Hopefully, Perez can continue to breakout with the bat because his defense is already top notch.
12. Brett Eibner OF
Those that hated the Luke Hochevar pick seemed to hate the Crow pick as well. It isn't hard to miss the similarities. Both are guys that declined huge bonuses and then went the Indy League route only to be selected a year later in the first round again. Many Royals prospect observers were less than thrilled with the pick.
But then Crow went to Spring Training and in a short time with the Big League club caused such a stir that some even argued he should open the season in Royal blue and I don't mean Omaha. Instead he was sent to Springdale where he would be the opening night starter for a team that would go on to win the Texas League title. Unfortunately for Crow by season's end he was no longer with the team due to a demotion to Wilmington.
Crow has great stuff. After watching most of his starts in Springdale I can attest to the fact that his stuff is still there. He has a mid 90s heater that has great sinking action that produced a huge groundball rate. (I can't remember the exact number, but I do know that according to Dayton Moore it was one of the top rates in the minor leagues.) Hopefully with improved infield conditions and a strong defense this rate can help Crow to produce strong results. Stuff is not what concerns me about Aaron Crow.
What concerns me is that his control in Northwest Arkansas yielded a 4.4 walks per 9 inning rate. Even with a ton of groundballs it is going to be hard to win with a rate that high. Perhaps part of the problem is due to Crow's questionable mechanics on the backside. I once read that a pitcher with a wrist wrap should never be a bonus baby, because their control will always be in jeopardy.
I am still optimistic that Crow's troubles were a combination of bad luck, overpitching and rust. I believe that he has ace potential, but if his control does not come around as a starter could still be a valuable member of the bullpen, perhaps even as a closer. Given that Crow is on the 40 man roster he needs to figure it out as a starter fast or else the Royals could use the Major League bullpen as an acclimation process. Crow should begin the season in Northwest Arkansas maybe even once again as the opening night starter.
Johnny Giavotella was drafted in the second round out of the University of New Orleans, a place he pays homage to every time he came to the plate in 2010 at Arvest Ballpark with his New Orleans style jazz playing on the speakers. Giavotella was drafted in 2008 and was immediately sent to full season Burlington Iowa. There he became a catalyst at the top of the order that the Bees to that point had been without.
Two years later Giavotella continues to be a catalyst to whatever lineup he finds himself in. This past season in Northwest Arkansas he cruised to a line of .322/.395/.460 and after setting the Texas League on fire in the second half he was sent to the Arizona Fall League where he continued to blaze to a line of .328/.371/.578.
Some have compared Giavotella to Boston's Dustin Pedroia and many scoff at the notion. However, in Pedroia's first stint in the upper levels he split the season between double and triple-A and posted a line of .293/.385/.452. Now most scouts are probably somewhat surprised that Pedroia developed the power that he did, but at the time he was still viewed as a very strong prospect and described as a "gamer."
Giavotella is a gamer. He is a vocal player that has quick wrists with a short swing. His forearms are massive and probably a major reason why Giavotella is able to generate as much power as he does. I don't see Giavotella winning any MVP awards, but he could be a top notch hitter if he continues to develop. I also believe that he is one of the most Major League ready hitters in the entire organization probably ranking between second and fourth in this regard.
The concerns with Giavotella stem from his defense, in particular his range which projects to be average at best. Because he is already a second baseman many see him as a future starter or bust due to his bat not being able to carry him should he have to shift to a corner spot. I believe that his bat will be good enough for a Major League career regardless. Teams are always looking for guys that can hit Major League hitting and if he is capable of that someone will find him a position.
As far as his future with the Royals goes though it will be important that he hits the ground running when he is granted the opportunity at the Major League level. This is because with Alcides Escobar at short, Colon is now looming behind Giavotella on the organizational depth chart. If Giavotella continues to knock the cover off the ball he should see Kansas City by season's end unless Chris Getz decides to become a .300 hitter.
14. Tim Collins LHP
Over a year ago I defended the Ankiel signing because I felt as though he was a good buy low candidate and he would be a tradable commodity come the July deadline. This turned out to be true and in exchange for a couple months of Ankiel and perhaps the only Royal to ever be booed in his home opener, Kyle Farnsworth the Royals were able to add a piece to the future. Of course I am talking about Jesse Chavez.... I mean Tim Collins.
Collins instantly became a favorite among Royals prospect buffs due to his diminutive stature and his awesome K rate, which as you can see in the graph above has been at 13.3 per 9 innings in his minor league career. Collins stands in at 5-7, 155. When he stands on the hill he turns himself in a cock eye fashion and a delivery that only shows his back at the beginning. He then hurls not only himself at the hitter but also hurls mid 90s heat that he occasionally mixes with a plus hammer curveball.
Collins has closer potential, but should become a very strong setup man for the Kansas City Royals for the next six or seven seasons. This Spring the Royals have Collins working from both sides of the rubber in an effort to add even more deception to his already deceptive delivery.
Even though he is not yet on the 40-man roster I expect that he will open the season in the Major League Bullpen. If this turns out not to be the case, it will be a result of roster manipulation and inventory control and not because of Collins poor performance. Either way we should see Collins in Kansas City sooner rather than later.
13. Salvador Perez C
Salvador Perez was signed out Venezuela in 2006 as part of Dayton Moore's first international signing class. So far he has yielded extremely promising results. So promising in fact that I predict Perez to break out in a big way in 2011 when he spends the season at Arvest Ballpark for the Northwest Arkansas Naturals.
Much has been made of Perez this Spring as Yost has been enamored with his defensive abilities. Pitchers love to throw to him and runners hate to run on him. Perez blocks balls with ease and records an astounding 1.8 second pop time to second base.
In the Royals intrasquad game perhaps the organizations best basestealer Jarrod Dyson attempted to rob second base from Perez. However, when Dyson normally would go into his slide he found that the ball was at second waiting for him. After the play Dyson was quoted as saying "I aint never got thrown out by that much."
It isn't just Perez's glove that has the organization and me so excited. As the youngest hitter in the Carolina League in 2010 he was able to hit .290/.322/.411 a line that is reminiscent of Sandy Alomar Jr. a player that Perez is often compared to. He also was able to hit seven homers, which was the highest total of his young career.
Yost believes that Perez is major league ready, but because he hasn't had a single at bat in the upper minors that is where he will spend 2011. Nonetheless it seems that the presence of Perez in the system was a major factor in the organization's decision to move Myers to the outfield. Hopefully, Perez can continue to breakout with the bat because his defense is already top notch.
12. Brett Eibner OF
Eibner entered the 2010 draft as perhaps the most intriguing two way player available. He could either be the power hitting centerfielder that had a knack for the clutch in college. Or he could be the pitcher that entered the game throwing missiles and dominated hitters with heat. Eibner preferred to be a hitter and the Royals obliged by selecting him in the second round and signing him to an overslot bonus.
Eibner may possess the highest upside of any player in the Royals system. He could develop into a four or five tool centerfielder with plus plus power, or his swing could continue to be too long and he could strikeout so much in the low levels that the Royals decided to convert him back to pitcher. Either way his numbers will surely be worth keeping an eye on in 2011 for the casual prospect observer.
Eibner should open 2011 in either Kane County or Wilmington. If he can keep his strikeouts down he could ascend through the system extremely fast and could even see Northwest Arkansas by season's end. He could also strikeout 150+ times in Kane County and just move one level at a time. It is tough to say.
11. Aaron Crow RHP
Those that hated the Luke Hochevar pick seemed to hate the Crow pick as well. It isn't hard to miss the similarities. Both are guys that declined huge bonuses and then went the Indy League route only to be selected a year later in the first round again. Many Royals prospect observers were less than thrilled with the pick.
But then Crow went to Spring Training and in a short time with the Big League club caused such a stir that some even argued he should open the season in Royal blue and I don't mean Omaha. Instead he was sent to Springdale where he would be the opening night starter for a team that would go on to win the Texas League title. Unfortunately for Crow by season's end he was no longer with the team due to a demotion to Wilmington.
Crow has great stuff. After watching most of his starts in Springdale I can attest to the fact that his stuff is still there. He has a mid 90s heater that has great sinking action that produced a huge groundball rate. (I can't remember the exact number, but I do know that according to Dayton Moore it was one of the top rates in the minor leagues.) Hopefully with improved infield conditions and a strong defense this rate can help Crow to produce strong results. Stuff is not what concerns me about Aaron Crow.
What concerns me is that his control in Northwest Arkansas yielded a 4.4 walks per 9 inning rate. Even with a ton of groundballs it is going to be hard to win with a rate that high. Perhaps part of the problem is due to Crow's questionable mechanics on the backside. I once read that a pitcher with a wrist wrap should never be a bonus baby, because their control will always be in jeopardy.
I am still optimistic that Crow's troubles were a combination of bad luck, overpitching and rust. I believe that he has ace potential, but if his control does not come around as a starter could still be a valuable member of the bullpen, perhaps even as a closer. Given that Crow is on the 40 man roster he needs to figure it out as a starter fast or else the Royals could use the Major League bullpen as an acclimation process. Crow should begin the season in Northwest Arkansas maybe even once again as the opening night starter.
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