Data Shows Spring Stats Matter

Another day, another fantastic Mike Moustakas spring performance. With each day that goes by the Royals former top pick continues to mash in the Arizona sun. Heading into this afternoon's game Moustakas was hitting .450/.521/.875 and of course he then went 1-1 with two walks. So what does all of this Spring success mean for Moustakas in 2014? Fortunately, the wonderfully fantastic FiveThirtyEight and Neil Paine brought us this post on when Spring Training results matter. Here's what Paine concluded:

"We then find that spring productivity is statistically significant when predicting actual performance in the upcoming season, even after controlling for a player’s Marcel projection. However, while significant, the effect is extremely small: To raise his expected regular-season wOBA by just a single point, a typical player would need to hit for a wOBA roughly 17 points higher than expected during the spring.

In other words, spring numbers can and should affect our predictions for a player’s regular-season production, but only slightly, and only after a particularly strong or weak performance."

Based off this study, there is statistical backing to believe that Moustakas's strong spring should improve our expectations for our third baseman for 2014. In fact, Mike Moustakas is one of the ten players that Paine even mentions as a guy to keep an eye on for the upcoming season. Prior to Spring, Marcel's projections called for Moustakas to post a wOBA of .321, but after a wOBA of .616 in Spring they have revised their projection to .331 for the season.

This of course would be a tremendous improvement from Moustakas's 2013 performance in which he posted a wOBA of .287. In fact, Moustakas's previous career high in wOBA is the .305 mark that he posted in 2012. In case you are curious a .331 mark would've ranked 72nd in baseball last season and 8th among third basemen.

I'm not of the opinion that Moustakas has to rake for the Royals to find the playoffs in 2014. The Royals have done enough this offseason to get themselves to the periphery of playoff discussion and there are much fewer "ifs" that need to play out this year than there have been in the past for the Royals to play in October. Of course, if Moustakas can hit as Marcel and Paine are projecting, with his defense he becomes a 3.5-4 win player.

Let's hope that Moustakas can carry these results into the season. It would be a huge boost to the Royals offense.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

New Definitive Approach

We're just two weeks from the end of Spring Training and Mike Moustakas is hitting  .438/.513/.906. Of course, we already know that the man is in the best shape of his life. We also have been told about how impressive it is that the guy was willing to go to Venezuela to work on his swing, despite being a veteran, but Fox Sports Jeffrey Falanagan brings us word that now Moustakas heads to the plate with a "definitive plan every time he walks to the plate."

There's no doubt that Moustakas has looked good this Spring, but Royals fans will be quick to point out that the former 8th best prospect in baseball did the same last season, before torching the American League to a .233/.287/.364 line. I'd like to be optimistic, but I simply have to see results in regular season competition before I am buying in.

I'm a huge Moustakas fan. The performance he put on at Arvest Ballpark in the summer of 2010, is something that I will never forget. At the time I was convinced that one day he'd be the firey leader of the Royals, leading them to postseason glory. This could still unfold, but he's now seven plate appearances from the career 1500 mark and his wRC+ is a paltry 83.

The good news is that the Royals are much less reliant on Moustakas this season than they were in either of the preview two years. The guy will likely hit 6th or 7th in the order in 2014. If he can breakout, it is an enormous boon to the lineup. If he continues to struggle at the plate and wow in the field, he'll simply be a low cost placeholder until the Royals can fill the gap. Let's hope for the former.

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Control the Inner Half

When it comes to the Royals future, there aren't many players who could tip the scales one way or another more than Mike Moustakas. Watching him blast home runs all over Arvest Ballpark in 2010, was an experience I'll never forget, but I'd love to add some memories of him doing the same in Kauffman Stadium.

On Thursday, Fox Sports Kansas City' Jeffrey Flanagan brought us this article on how the young Royals hitter is approaching the 2014 season. Here's what Moustakas had to say regarding his off-season work in Winter Ball when he hit .288/.360/.515 in 66 at bats with Cardenales de Lara:

"We worked on driving the ball the other way, and doing damage that way. If pitchers came in, I was still able to get my hands in and pull it. But that's how I got into a funk last year - I tried to pull everything. Pedro just told me (pulling every pitch) is not going to work."

 I worry that a big part of the reason Moustakas hasn't developed into the hitter that he could be is the result of poor development by the Royals front office. Having three different hitting coaches over a two year period has done no favors for the Royals former 1st round pick.

Moustakas's top strength is his ability to turn on anything on the inside part of the plate. He was lauded coming up for his incredible bat speed. But what did the Royals do? They tried to turn him into a guy that would spray line drives all over the field. Maybe they felt he needed to make this adjustment to excel at the Major League level, but they sure didn't push that too much to Moustakas when he was in the minors.

This is not to say that Moustakas was a dead pull guy in the Minor Leagues either. On the contrary what I was most impressed with when watching him in the Texas League was his ability to hit the ball with authority to all fields. One Royals executive even told me that there are regularly a few guys with legitimate power at the Double-A level, but sometimes years can go by without guys with the refined power that Moustakas displayed.

Following, Moustakas's disappointing 2012 campaign, the Royals made a hitting coach change. Then came in a couple of hitting coaches who wanted to lead the league in fewest home runs. Once again they failed to play to the California high school career home run record holder's strengths. Somewhere along the way even an uncle chimed in about how far Moustakas had deviated from the approach that once made him as fearsome as any hitter in the minor leagues.

I hope Moustakas can find the balanced approach that he once had. He needs to be able to shorten his stroke with two strikes and stop rolling over on outside pitches and hitting pop ups a mile into the air. But most importantly, Moustakas needs to command the inner half of the plate and when pitchers try to test him inside he needs to punish them just like he did for the Naturals in 2010.

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"Best in the American League"

On Wednesday, the Kansas City Star's Andy McCullough sat down with Omar Infante and it didn't take long for the conversation to steer towards the defense of Alcides Escobar, who Infante called "the best in the American League."

Infante is dead on regarding the Royals shortstop. In 2013, Escobar ranked second in all of baseball in UZR for a shortstop. This comes just two years after ranking fourth in 2011. Unfortunately, sandwiched in between those two seasons was 2012, when the Venezuelan ranked 20th out of 21 short stops in UZR (only ahead of Derek Jeter).

My guess is that there were some positioning issues with Mike Moustakas and Escobar in 2012, which results in Mike Moustakas posting an enormous UZR the year before last. This is why I personally don't think Moustakas took a step back defensively last year anymore than Escobar rebounded from 2012. The more important issue is that while the Royals left side is stout defensively, they both need to hit in order to continue to hold down Major League jobs.

Last season, the Royals shortstop posting a wRC+ of 49. This mark was the lowest produced by a qualifying player since 2010 when Cesar Izturis hit .230/.277/.268 with the Orioles in 150 games.

Of course, former Orioles manager Dave Trembley had the sense to bat this kind of hitter at the bottom of the order and Izturis only appeared in three games hitting either 1 or 2. Ned Yost on the other hand hit Escobar in the leadoff and two spot 74 times in 2014. When you talk about lineup optimization, there might not have been a more egregious decision made repeatedly in 2014, than Yost hitting Escobar 2nd.

Fortunately for the Royals the top of the lineup should be out of Escobar's hands in 2014. This should lessen the blow if Escobar is as atrocious offensively as he was a season ago. At the same time, it would be a nice boost to the offense if somehow Escobar could get back to the .293/.331/.390 line that he posted in 2012.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams

He Can Play Any Position He Wants

In an article for Fox Sports on Wednesday, Jeffrey Flanagan brought us this article regarding the possibility of Sal Perez playing some first base during the 2014 season. Of course, it only took until the second paragraph for a quote by our fearless leader to venture off into hyperbole:

"Sal really could, if he wanted to, play any position. He has that ability." - Dayton Moore

 This actually explains a lot. For instance, now we understand why the Royals DFA-ed Emilio Bonifacio. Why keep him on the bench when you have super-sub Salvy ready to make a diving catch in center, or turn a double play? This would also explain why we don't feel the need to carry a back up middle infielder at the beginning of the season. We've got Salvy ready to play short of Alcides Escobar goes down!

Of course, not too much farther into the article mohawk yielding Mike Moustakas dampens our hopes:

"I wouldn't say he'd be winning a Gold Glove (at first base) or anything. It's amazing. For as good of a defensive catcher as he is and how amazing he can catch pop-ups and make plays out there, he can't catch a pop-up to save his life at first base. It's crazy."

But wait! Should we really take Moustakas at his word? I mean Dayton Moore has zero incentive to lie to the fanbase, but Moustakas? What do you think is going to happen when he is posting a negative batting average in May and the Royals faithful get wind that Perez can play anywhere including the hot corner! Moustakas is clearly has some self interest involved here.

Seriously, any additional versatility is always welcomed. Perez is an awesome player and there is no sweeter contract in baseball than his. If giving Perez an occasional start at first base helps keep him healthy throughout the contract and the season, then by all means give him some starts at first base. Let's just not go overboard and pull Eric Hosmer or Billy Butler's bat out of the lineup 20 times this season just for the hell of it.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams

Plugging the Holes

Last week Fangraphs' Brad Johnson took a moment to analyze the Royals infield. After raving about Eric Hosmer for a paragraph, Johnson then got around to write this regarding new Royals second baseman Omar Infante. You can read the full article here.

"Infante will finally resolve the Royals second base black hole. He brings batting average to the fantasy dinner along with the odd counting stat. The quality of his season is largely determined by his BABIP."

I don't need to remind Royals fans about how dreadful the Royals' second base situation was last season, but I'm going to do it anyway. Last season Chris Getz, Miguel Tejada, Johnny Giavotella, and Elliot Johnson each received time at second and collectively that group combined for 1.2 Wins Above Replacement and hit .240/.296/.306. Yikes.

Last season for Detroit, Infante hit .318/.345/.450 and recorded 3.1 fWAR. To say that he will be an upgrade for the Royals is an understatement. There was quite a bit of criticism when the Royals guaranteed Infante $30.25 million over 4 years, but the Royals also deserve some credit for bringing in the second best option available on the free agent market to fill their gaping hole. 

The Royals had a few pretty big holes in the lineup heading into the offseason. At third base and short they are hoping for rebouds from Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar. They addressed right field when they acquired Norichika Aoki. With the addition of Infante, the Royals plugged the final hole in the offense. Now it is time to keep our fingers crossed that Kansas City receives what they paid for.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams

The Futures of Colon and Giavotella

On Tuesday, Fox Sports' Jeffrey Flanagan brought us this article on the futures of Johnny Giavotella and Christian Colon. Obviously, with the signing of Omar Infante, both players Royal future have become a bit hazy. It would seem that barring anything unforeseen neither may soon get the opportunity to Be Royal.

Giavotella has always been a personal favorite of mine. I saw him first hand in about 60 games a few years ago for the Naturals, when the team would win Team of the Year honors from Baseball America. He was a beast. His range was always limited, but all season long he shot lasers all over Arvest Ballpark and occasionally provided fans with highlight reel plays.

Unfortunately, even I have jumped off the former 2nd round pick's bandwagon. In three separate big league stints he has hit a collective .240/.278/.335 over 113 games. Sure, the argument can be made that he has never truly been given a shot, but I would counter that even in those stints he has completely failed to capitalize.

At this point, even when I squint I can't imagine a future with the Royals for Giavotella and I have a hard time imagining that he offers any value in the way of a trade. the Royals could either do Giavotella a favor and pawn him off for next to nothing or they could stash him in AAA as a reserve until he runs out of options. Giavotella's case isn't enhanced by his lack of versatility. If you can hit enough to be a second baseman, you aren't hitting enough to be a left fielder.

As for Colon, I still think there is some potential there. Unlike Giavotella, Colon can play both middle infield spots. I'm hopeful that the Royals even get him some time at third and maybe even left in 2014. If the Royals can do this Colon could develop into a top notch reserve type of player. I think it is time for the Royals to develop Colon for what his true ceiling is as opposed to the ceiling they thought they had when they drafted him.

I've been hesitant to join the Colon fan club, because quite frankly he has yet to show enough ability at the plate. I'm not going to start a riot because the Royals aren't giving a career .273 Minor League hitter a chance at the big league level. At the same time, I wouldn't be shocked at all to see him carry last season's momentum when he hit .319 over the final two months of the season into 2014.

Hopefully, Colon can return to Omaha in 2014 and mash. The Royals would then have a good problem on their hands. It would give the Royals that quality depth piece should Mike Moustakas, Infante, or Alcides Escobar fall to injury. Also, if Moustakas continues to collapse, Infante could slide to third with Colon taking second. If nothing else I expect to see the Royals former first round pick surface in Kansas City as a utility man by season's end. The Royals might try to get through a month or so without a back up middle infielder, but they won't make it through 162 games without one.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

Royals Roster Crunch

Yesterday, our fearless leader Dayton Moore delivered us his annual State of the Royals address. Aside from inspiring our squad to go out there and win the big one, GMDM also had some thoughts on the roster crunch. This quote is taken from Jeffrey Flanagan's article on the address, which you can read in full here.

"Moore indicated the team almost surely will break camp with 12 pitchers. He also said the team was leaning toward carrying five outfielders."

Of course, if we do the math we can determine that 25 minus 12 pitchers minus 5 outfielders minus 2 catchers leaves 6 infielders. According to Flanagan, Valencia is a "virtual lock" for the roster because he is out of options and under team control through 2017. Who knows if this is Flanagan blowing smoke or if Dayton Moore has actually stated that is the case. If it's true that Valencia will be another piece to the puzzle, then that means there will not be a backup middle infielder. This is something that I have a hard time imagining.

The ideal way to handle this situation would be to only carry 11 pitchers. Given the strength of the Royals bullpen and the number of innings that the starters should eat, I would say the Royals are better positioned than most teams to carry just 11. This would allow the Royals to have Justin Maxwell, Jarrod Dyson, Valencia, plus a middle infielder on the team.

If we assume that the Royals will carry 12 pitchers and a back up middle infielder, then that leaves just two spots between Dyson, Maxwell, and Valencia. Personally, I think Dyson's speed get him a spot. This would leave the Royals to choose between a platoon option/pinch hitter for third base or the outfield. Since Gordon and Aoki don't have extreme platoon splits and Mike Moustakas does, I think Valencia would make more sense for this roster.

Losing Maxwell would be a tough pill to swallow after his performance following his acquisition in August. There hasn't been much suggestion that the Royals are considering parting ways with Maxwell, but there is going to be a crunch. The Royals have invested in both Maxwell and Valencia. For Maxwell they gave up the back end potential of Kyle Smith. For Valencia they gave up an outfielder under control for six more seasons. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams

Royals Trade Lough for Valencia

In another sneaky SABR move by the Royals front office David Lough was sent to the Inner Harbor for right hand hitting, OBP deprived Danny Valencia. It didn't take the Royals Twitterverse more than an infield pop up's worth of time to realize that Valencia hits left handers at a decent clip and would be an ideal platoon partner to incumbent third baseman, Mike Moustakas.

But then...

#Royals' Dayton Moore also tells me Valencia won't platoon with Moose: “But that’s not to say Ned won’t match up in certain situations.”
— Jeffrey Flanagan (@jflanagankc) December 18, 2013

So the plot thickens.

Actually, it was extremely predictable that Dayton Moore would hesitate to label this as a platoon. There are too many factors at play. The most important of which being that Kansas City doesn't want to officially label Mike Moustakas as a platoon player. Ideally, Moustakas hits in 2014 like the prospect experts all expected him to. Yes, he has been terribly disappointing thus far in his Major League career, but there are still well respected people in the industry that expect much bigger things from Moustakas moving forward.

Nonetheless, if the Royals find themselves in a platoon situation in 2014, they could have done much worse than Danny Valencia. In 428 career plate appearances versus left handed pitching, the former 19th round selection has hit .329/.367/.513 against southpaws. Last year alone he torched lefties to the tune of a .371/.392/.639 line.

Individually, here are The Spitter's projections for Mike Moustakas and Danny Valencia for 2014 (adjusted to 600 plate appearances):

• Mike Moustakas: .237/.290/.379 with 15 home runs, a .290 wOBA and a 1.98 WAR.
• Danny Valencia: .261/.290/.445 with 20 home runs, a .312 wOBA and a 1.29 WAR.

Basically, you have a couple of guys with poor contact and even poorer walk rates. Moustakas comes in with a higher WAR thanks to an above average glove, while Valencia is below average at third. Here is what we get if we run it as a platoon between the two players with a 30/70 split in favor of Moustakas.

• .265/.307/.437 with 19 home runs, a .319 wOBA and a 2.90 WAR. 

What we see here is that if the Royals did go with a true platoon from the offset, Danny Valencia would compliment Moustakas extremely well and raise the overall production from third base by about a win.Of course, if Mosutakas does prove that he is more than a platoon player, your problem is solved anyway. If implemented correctly, this is the kind of sly move that an organization can make to grab an extra win. 

Now as for where Valencia fits into the roster puzzle. Valencia is out of options (reason why he appears to be more than a Brandon Wood, worst case scenario back up plan to Moustakas). The way the current bench sets up is backup catcher, Emilio Bonifacio, Justin Maxwell, and Jarrod Dyson. This would give the Royals 13 hitters on their active roster. 

The wise thing for the Royals to do would be to carry 14 hitters. The rotation is full of innings eaters (except for the 5 spot which figures to be occupied by either Yordano Ventura or Danny Duffy). There are also enough arms in Omaha to enable a sort of shuttle system that can stretch the bullpen deeper than a typical 6 man pen can. Dayton Moore has displayed the creativity to successfully utilize a psuedo shuttle system in the past and I believe he can do it again.

By carrying 11 pitchers instead of 14, it would enable the Royals to truly platoon Moustakas and Valencia, while also keeping a balanced bench with a nice array of skills. Maxwell could pinch hit against lefties. Dyson and Bonifacio can both run. Maxwell can hit for power. Dyson can get on base. Between Dyson and Bonifacio you have every spot on the diamond covered in case of injury or the need of a defensive replacement. 

I'm disappointed with the Royals decision to DFA George Kottaras. I still think it could wind up costing them a win. However, I think they have positioned themselves well to have a very nice bench in 2014. What is more likely to happen is that Kansas City will opt to go with the 12 man staff that they have had through a majority of the Dayton Moore era. If I had to guess, this would be it for Jarrod Dyson. 

As for David Lough, he will always be a personal favorite of mine. He is an extremely personable individual and always has a smile on his face. His rookie season was fantastic to watch and he played an enormous role in the Royals second half resurgence. I wish him all the best and I'm looking forward to watching him in an Oriole jersey next season. #YoLough.

Moustakas and the Sprained Knee

Throughout the offseason, I have heard Bob Dutton in adament fashion and on several occasions attribute Moustakas's final season line to a knee injury that occurred in Seattle on July 28. As most of us remember, the former #2 overall selection got off to solid start after scuffling over the first few games of the season. In fact, after a 2-for-4 performance on May 7, versus Boston his triple slash stood at .313/.370/.545.

Unfortunately, we also remember his two month long slump that dropped his final slash line to .242/.296/.412. It is Bob Dutton's belief that Moustakas's disappointing close wasn't a reflection of declining performance, but instead the reflection of a player disguising an injury. What do the numbers say?

• Opening Day through July 28: 95 games, .262/.317/.461 with 16 home runs, 50 RBI, 25 walks, and 76 strikeouts
• July 31 through the end of the season: 54 games, .204/.259/.323 with 4 home runs, 23 RBI, 14 walks, and 48 strikeouts

Just a glance at those numbers would seem to back up Dutton's theory. Also, just to be clear we aren't dealing with hand picked arbitrary endpoints either. This is examining a particular event and focusing on the numbers before and after the event. However, we should also ask ourselves if Moustakas was already beginning the slump prior to his injury? Let's break it up this time into three parts. 

• Opening Day through May 7: 27 games, .313/.370/.545 with 4 home runs, 15 RBI, 7 walks and 18 strikeouts
• May 8 through July 28: 68 games, .243/.297/.430 with 12 home runs, 35 RBI, 18 walks and 58 strikeouts
• July 31 through the end of the season: 54 games, .204/.259/.323 with 4 home runs, 23 RBI, 14 walks and 48 strikeouts

Of course, here we are dealing with arbitrary end points. I intentionally selected Mike's high water mark in order to make the middle set of numbers appear as poor as possible. Perhaps a more fair approach would be to simply look at Moose's 54 games prior to the injury and final 54 games of the season.

• 54 games prior to knee sprain: .256/.310/.449 with 9 home runs, 13 doubles, 31 RBI, 15 walks and 46 strikeouts
• Final 54 games of the season: .204/.259/.323 with 4 home runs, 10 doubles, 1 triple, 23 RBI, 14 walks and 48 strikeouts

The final set of bullets, I think is a good illustration of the point Dutton is making. Again, this is an attempt to use splits that are as far from arbitrary as possible. Ultimately, in each of these three breakdowns, it is clear that Moustakas was a totally different player over the final third of the season. 

Moustakas claims that the injury was having no affect on his performance, but we shouldn't kid ourselves. There is no media member with his finger closer to the pulse of the Kansas City Royals than Bob Dutton. If Bob Dutton believes that Moustakas's August and September struggles were due to an injury that he was trying to keep under wraps, then I believe him. This is especially true when the numbers back it up. Hopefully, Dutton proves to be right, and Moustakas's knee can stay healthy in 2013. 

Royal Rewind Wrap Up (10-22-12)

Yesterday as I was flipping through channels and trying to ignore the "must watch" TV of the third and final Presidential Debate, I came across "Royal Rewind" on Fox Sports Midwest.  It had already been going on for a half hour or so, but I caught most of the last half.  Here are some thoughts by a few Royals personnel from the Royal Rewind.  I am only paraphrasing what they said.

Ned Yost

• Losing Paulino and Duffy hurt the most. Rotation would hinge around those guys and both were doing great at time they got hurt.

Although Felipe Paulino was pitching like an "ace" before he got hurt, Danny Duffy wasn't pitching exceptional.  Obviously, losing those two pitchers hurt the rotation badly, but one could also make an argument that losing Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez for the first half of the season was just as devastating. Oh and we were playing Yuniesky Betancourt.

• Moose has improved, gold glove caliber third baseman. Production was pretty good for first full year in big leagues.

Mike Moustakas has improved, especially on defense.  He led all 3B in UZR in 2012 at 16.8. This mark put him ahead of the likes of David Wright, and Adrian Beltre.  Moose was also 2nd among 3B in the Majors in UZR/150 at 15.2 only behind David Wright at 16.8.  Moose was hot the first half of the season where he slugged .490 and hit 15 long balls.  Post All-Star Break he was awful. He had an OPS of .586 with a putrid 5 homers.  Don't get me wrong, I love Moustakas, and I still think in terms of his first year he had a real solid year overall.  But if the Royals want to compete for division championships Moose (or Hoz) will both have to be All-Star caliber players in my opinion.

• Hoz really struggled

Boy did he.  Eric Hosmer was incredibly tough to watch most of the year; and not just at the plate.  He was hard to watch on defense as well, thanks to his windmill digging style and the tendency to fling the ball across the field.  Like Moustakas, Hosmer will have to become an All-Star caliber player in order for the Royals to compete year in and year out.

• Ryan Lefebvre asked Ned something along the lines of it was as simple as starting pitching for the Royals to become a contender.
• Ned: "It's that simple really" Experience is extremely valuable and core is set on the field (lineup).
• Bullpen is efficient, need a couple starters and we should be in good shape.

Is it as simple as SP? Well in some ways yes it is.  We desperately need 2 or 3 starters that can pitch somewhat like Jeremy Guthrie did for the Royals, or even Luis Mendoza.  Luke Hochevar should not be in the rotation next year. Period.  I know I'm not the only fan who is saying this, in fact, its most likely a choir of Royals fans saying this.  I still think there is more to the Royals competing, and that is what I said earlier: Moustakas and Hosmer living up to star potential. Or at least one of them.

Steve Physioc

• Holland was fantastic and has makeup and mentality to be a closer

I agree, he looked great. Love his strikeout ability.

• Guthrie raised the entire rotation up, Mendoza pitched better (when Guthrie came) and Chen pitched better too.

Guthrie raised the rotation up because he pitched very well, Mendoza was consistently slightly above average and Bruce Chen was terrible for the most part, I don't get the love for Chen.

Rex Hudler

• Bruce Chen set the tone for rotation
• Led the entire season
• "Raise the Roof in 13"

Oh Rex. Chen really led the staff all year with his 5.07 ERA and becoming the human launching pad by giving up 33 dingers on the year. You amaze me Rex.

Power at the Corners

Over at Baseball Prospectus Hall of Fame guru Jay Jaffe has posted an interesting article that you can read here if you are Baseball Prospectus insider. In general, the article breaks down the average offensive production, by each position for the 2011 season using a statistic called True Average. In short, this statistic basically rolls up a player's offensive value into one figure that is then presented on the average scale.

The most interesting finding from this study was the significant drop off in production from third basemen last season. Third base, which has typically been one of the most difficult positions to find premium talent for (there are less third basemen in the Hall of Fame than any other position) dropped below league average True Average for the first time since 2003. In fact, in 2011, third base production reached its lowest point since 1950. In fact, the only positions that it ranked higher in production in were catchers and short stops.

Another position that experienced a significant drop in production in 2011, was left field. Left fielders actually fell in production even more last season than third basemen. For the first time since 1966, left fielders ranked below center fielders in offensive output as judged by True Average.

One of the most popular mantras throughout baseball is power on the corners with defense up the middle. However, in today's game of shrinking offensive production, two of the corners appear to be harder to fill with mashers than they were just a few seasons ago.

If teams are able to find middle of the order production from their middle of the diamond players, they usually are able to field strong offenses. This is because of the scarcity of really good hitters at middle of the diamond positions. If third base and left field turn into positions of scare offensive quality it would mean that the teams able to find quality mashers at these positions would be at a huge advantage. This is the same concept that makes top prospects at premium positions so coveted. Players that can rake at low offense positions are worth more than if their bat is being played at a position on the opposite end of the defensive spectrum

What this means for the Kansas City Royals, is that if production continues to decline from the third base and left field positions, and the Royals can lock up Gordon to an extension, the Royals will be well positioned for the future. Alex Gordon's bat and glove combination would play up even more, should the left fielders around baseball continue the current trend. If Mike Moustakas turns into what the Royals believe he will be, he'll not only be a middle of the order hitter, but he'll also come from a position that around baseball has less production than second base.

Jaffe suggests at the end of the article that there is a good chance the decline in third base production could've been a perfect storm in 2011. Some of the stars of the position were aging and others were hurt. Some league average third basemen regressed, while bad third basemen were worthless. The third base position could be turning itself over to a new generation, led by Mike Moustakas and Lonnie Chisenhall. It will be interesting to see if baseball can find other quality players at the position, or if Moustakas and Chisenhall will be aberrations and as a result, be all the more valuable to their organizations.

In this post today Kevin Goldstein stated "there is little doubt the club (Kansas City) is going to turn into an offensive juggernaut." Production from sub optimum offensive positions would go a long way in turning this prediction into reality.

Yunasty Returns to KC

The Royals search for a back up infielder has been their most obvious pursuit this off season outside of acquiring starters for the rotation. The club was specific in looking for a right handed hitter that could back up third and short. You also have to believe that the guy that would be signed would provide both competition and an insurance policy at second base with Johnny Giavotella.

Naturally the Royals filled this void by signing Yuniesky Betancourt this afternoon. Betancourt will return to Kansas City just 366 days after the Royals dealt him to Milwaukee in the Zack Greinke trade. Just a couple of months after starting at short stop for a division champion baseball club, Betancourt appears to have accepted a bench role with the Kansas City Royals- we can only hope.

Of course my initial reaction along with everyone else that closely follows the Royals was one of psychological horror. Rationally I knew that there were surely pros to this acquisition and that getting worked up over a back up infielder was a little over the top. But let me ask you this Royals Nation: Do you think our initial reaction to the Betancourt acquisition was over the top? That's what I thought.

So finally I have reached a point where I can discuss how Betancourt is a good fit for your 2012 Kansas City Royals. Well first off he clears fits the profile that the Royals were looking for in their back up infielder. Right Handed? Yep, Betancourt is right handed. But why did the Royals target a righty? Well, because they wanted to find a guy that could occasionally spell Mike Moustakas against the tough lefty.

So Kansas City needed a hitter that could pound lefties. Naturally the Royals landed on on Betancourt who blistered lefties in 2011 to a .229/.241/.331/.576 line. To be fair Betancourt has been much better against lefties for his career and boasts .275/.308/.421/.729 line. Not terrible numbers there, but does that line really justify hitting Betancourt over Moustakas against a left hander? Not in my opinion. Not only would Betancourt be stealing at bats from Mous but based off of the numbers I expect Mous to be at least the hitter Betanourt is against lefties and likely even better.

So Kansas City needed a guy that could back up both short and third. Naturally they chose Betancourt that hasn't played an inning of third as professional. (Not to mention we already know he can't play shortstop.) It isn't ridiculous to suggest that Betancourt could be a decent fielder at second or third, but at this point we just don't know. For now though the Royals back up third baseman hasn't played an inning at the position since he became a professional.

Finally, the Royals needed to find and insurance policy should Johnny Giavotella fail. This it where it gets scary, because for all the assurance that Dayton Moore has given that Alcides Escobar will start 150+ games at short, there hasn't been much said on the subject of Johnny Giavotella. It's no secret that I'm a big Johnny G fan, but even I think it would be wise to have some quality competition should he falter. I'm just no sure Betancourt is quality competition. If you are a Johnny Giavotella fan like myself you better hope that Gio gets off to a fast start in 2012, or else the organization may be tempted to allow Betancourt's tools on the field on a regular basis.

Betancourt is without a doubt a better fit for the 25 man roster than Chris Getz, but that isn't saying much. There are positives to signing Betancourt, but I'm not sure there are any that wouldn't have been met had the Royals signed any of the other available crop of veteran infielders. Ultimately this is a frustrating move. Yes, it adds competition. Yes, it is only a back up infielder. Yes, Betancourt is a body that can reasonably back up several positions.

The Royals didn't hurt themselves with this move. But given the obviousness that a back up infielder would be signed, they didn't do themselves in favors either. I don't know the terms of the deal, so obviously that will affect my stance a little. For example if it is a minor league deal I would actually be a fan of the move. But if the Royals wind up paying more to Betancourt in 2012 than Edgar Renteria, or Orlando Cabrera wind up making I'll be disappointed.

Winter Meetings Day 2 Round Up

Not much in the way of exciting new news came on Tuesday for the Kansas City Royals, but here are the things we heard about:

1. Royals continue to dangle Soria for a front line starter. This is the right move. But given the White Sox return for Sergio Santos, a player extremely comparable to Soria, I don't think the Royals will get the opportunity at the return they are looking for.

2. Royals continue to look for a right handed bat to back up Moustakas. I'd love to see the Royals have a quality bat off the bench that could occasionally spell Moustakas against tough lefties and serve as a pinch hitter in the late innings.

If the Royals go with a four man bench they have a back up catcher, back up outfielder and two spots remaining. They've rumored to want a left handed middle infielder and if they get that and a right handed hitting third baseman that means there is only one back up outfielder on the roster (not a huge deal). But I keep coming back to the thought that Yamaico Navarro given his switch hitting ability could serve both of the aforementioned bench roles and leave the Royals with one more bench spot to play with.

3. Royals tried to acquire Derek Lowe before he was traded to Cleveland. I figured at some point we would find out the Royals were interested. Personally, I don't see Lowe as being any more desirable than Sanchez or Chen. Although, the Indians are building up quite the ground ball inducing staff.

4. Royals are searching for a situational lefty. You always need another bullpen arm, but the Royals don't need to spend any money on this search. If they sign a lefty for anywhere at or over $1 million it would be a waste.

That's all I've got. Nothing incredibly exciting to comment on, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing. Even if our off season moves don't make us markedly better, the beauty of having such a young team is that natural progression can be expected.

Now is not the time for impatience.

Update: What we Need to See

At the All Star break I made a list of ten things that I would like to see in the second half of the season. Well we are about at the halfway point in between the break and the end of the season, so let's see how the Royals are stacking up with my goals.

1. A strong second half from Alex Gordon. In the first half Gordon posted a .299/.367/.483 line. So far in the second half he has a .290/.373/.497. His OPS is up from .850 in the first half to .870 in the second half, while his OPS+ is at 138 in the second half compared to 139 in the first half. In the end he has done plenty to warrant this goal receiving a CHECK for the time being.

2. Billy Butler finding his power stroke. Butler has 9 homers, 10 doubles and a slugging percentage of .541 in 37 games. CHECK

3. An efficient Danny Duffy Duffy is averaging just over 5 innings per start in the second half, which is right in line with his first half numbers. With Duffy reaching his season's innings limit soon I can't imagine this goal doing anything but remaining UNFULFILLED.

4. Eric Hosmer developing into a Superstar. Specifically I asked for Hosmer to post a line of at least .300/.350/.450 for the second half of the season. Instead his average has improved by two points from .268 to .270, while his on base percentage has jumped from .317 to .327. Not to mention his slugging percentage has actually dropped from .431 to .390. Definitely UNFULFILLED.

5. A good luck Felipe Paulino In the second half Paulino's K to walk has dropped from 3.75 to just 1.74. Due to his increase in walks his era has taken a hit. Whether or not he is having good luck or not this isn't what we wanted to see. UNFULFILLED.

6. Mike Moustakas driving the ball with power. Despite having a hot few days to finish the Boston series (just over twenty-four hours after I tweeted that I felt Mous might get things going soon based off of his recent swings) he still hasn't shown nearly enough for a check. UNFULFILLED

7. Luke Hochevar has to be better. A 3.55 era with a k to walk jumping to 2.40 qualifies here. CHECK

8. Alcides Escobar building off of his offensive outburst. He hasn't really built off his outburst, but he has been better than his wretched start. But a .250/.271/.339 line is hardly what I had in mind. UNFULFILLED.

9. Continued dominance from the bullpen. Aaron Crow has taken a step back. Greg Holland has continued to dominate. Tim Collins has been a little better. Joakim Soria still can't put his struggles behind him. Louis Coleman, despite his performance a couple of days ago continues to impress. This one is hard, but due to Crow's struggles I am marking it UNFULFILLED.

10. Mike Montgomery righting the ship He has had several decent starts, but at no point has he dominated like he did right before the All Star break. UNFULFILLED.

Overall, the Royals are three for ten on my Goal List for the second half. Not exactly what I was hoping for when I made this list of goals, all of which I felt were attainable.

What are we waiting for?

Bob Dutton made some noise on the Royals blogosphere and twitterverse last night when he released a story stating that the "goal" of Dayton Moore and the front office was to get Johnny Giavotella 100-150 Major League at bats this season.

So what would it take for the Royals to meet that goal? Well there are twenty-five games in September and considering that Yost is planning on starting Giavotella everyday he could get close to the lower end of that goal should he be called up on September 1.

More likely though Giavotella will need to be called up in mid-August and handed the everyday duty the rest of the season in order to comfortably fall into that 100-150 at bat range. So my question is this: if you are already virtually naming him the starter for the last month or month and a half of the season why not bring him up now?

Perhaps, there are service time issues that the Royals can benefit from should they wait until mid-August? Well, unless the Royals wait until several weeks into the 2012 season Giavotella will be a free agent after the 2017 season. The same time as Moustakas, Hosmer, Duffy, and the bevy of relievers. Also, the Royals are way past the Super Two cutoff so that is no concern either. So obviously service time isn't the reason he is still in Omaha.

I guess maybe the Royals feel like he isn't quite Major League ready. That would be a great reason for Giavotella to still be in Omaha, except for it is obviously not true. In fact Giavotella has proven himself more in Omaha than any rookie on the Major League roster not named Eric Hosmer.

Gio currently is hitting .339/.391/.482 in Omaha and since the all star break his line has been .392/.427/.581. In the last two months he has posted an OPS over 1.000. No, it is pretty clear the bat is Major League ready. So that leaves just one reason why Giavotella isn't in the Majors.

Obviously Giavotella is blocked by a superior player. Wait... What? The player blocking Giavotella is Chris Getz? The guy that has set a record for Royals at bats without a home run? The guy that is hitting .259/.317/.288 for the season?

So obviously there is no good reason for Giavotella still being in Triple-A. My guess is that one more cold streak by Getz will result in a move. Obviously the Royals would like to try and flip Getz for something useful, but I can't see why a team would give anything up for him.

Getz does have options remaining, but he will be arbitration eligible for the first time this winter making him more expensive. (Although I can't imagine him making seven figures.) He could go back to Omaha and be a back up guy should Giavotella fail miserably or get hurt in 2012. This is the solution I would take with Getz. Control inventory and take advantage of depth.

The Royals have already made it clear that they want Giavotella to be the starter for at least the final month of the season. So why wait? I realize that if they bring him up now they will probably net him close to 200 Major League at bats. But seriously, since when is it bad to exceed a goal? Giavotella has warranted a promtoion and is ready to go. Give him the rest of the at bats as the starting second sacker for the rest of the season and he should be ready to hit the ground running in 2012.

Giavotella isn't the only player deserving of a Major League spot. There is also the issue for Lorenzo Cain. Considering the current shape of the roster I'd prefer to keep Cain in Omaha for the next month allowing him to play everyday. Once the Omaha season ends bring him up and do your best to rotate him in and out of the lineup.

Also deserving are David Lough and Clint Robinson are also on the 40 man roster. Both have also done plenty to warrant promotions in September. There won't be enough playing time to go around to truly benefit them from a skills development standpoint. But I'd like to see them both called up to give them a taste of the Big Leagues, while rewarding them for their hard work and quality performances over the past few seasons.

Salvador Perez and Kelvin Herrera also have gotten call ups to the Triple-A recently. Both are Rule 5 eligible this winter so, should an opportunity present itself, both should be given September call ups as well. This could give them each about five weeks of playing time in Omaha that would include a playoff run (hopefully). Plus a few weeks in the Majors allowing them an opportunity to experience what Major League life is like.

The Royals are the youngest team in the Majors. But don't think the youth movement is done. We can only hope that Moustakas and Hosmer were the initial outburst from a consistent pipeline of talent.

What We Need to See

The second half of the season begins tonight, let's take a look at things we want to see in order to have confidence in this team having a shot at contention in 2012.

1. A strong second half from Alex Gordon. Obviously Gordon's first half has been the brightest spot for the 2011 Royals to date. For Royals fans and bloggers like myself who have defended Gordon and blamed his late blooming on injuries and bad luck, this season has come as a huge relief. But so far we have played just over half of the games on the 2011 slate. Gordon has come a long way, but a collapse in the second half could cause a similar collapse in fan's dreams for 2012.

2. Billy Butler finding his power stroke. Despite Butler walks being virtually unparralled by any other Royal in the last two decades, posting an on base percentage near .400. Butler has been a big disappointment for Royals fans in 2011. Whether or not this is fair is another discussion, but I think we can all agree that if Butler could start slugging the ball like he did in 2009, or even just like he did in 2010, we would be much more confident in his ability to be a middle of the order hitter.

3. An efficient Danny Duffy could go a long way. I'm not asking for Duffy to become a dominant pitcher in the second half (though if he did it would definitely go a long way), but if he can just be more efficient in controlling the strike zone and his pitch counts. This would allow him to go deeper in the games, reducing the strain on the bullpen and allow him to pound the strike zone even more with his great stuff.

4. Eric Hosmer developing into a Superstar. It may be unfair to ask so much of Hosmer, but in my opinion he warrants it. It takes times for hitters to develope and normally they don't fully hit their stride until year two or three. But I truly believe that Hosmer is going to be ahead of the curve. If Hosmer can continue to improve his numbers in the second half, maybe just post around a .300/.350/.450 line in the second half then Royals fans are going to be really excited about the first base position when they look toward 2012.

5. A good luck Felipe Paulino or really even just a not unlucky Felipe Paulino. Throughout his career Paulino has consistently posted head scratching era numbers considering the strength of his peripherals. He has knockout stuff and a dynamite fastball. His body type suggests he can handle a big time workload, so if Paulino's luck pendulum can swing in the opposite direction or even hang straight down the Royals will have found one/fifth of their rotation through 2014 for nothing at all.

6. Mike Moustakas driving the ball with power. Mike Moustakas hasn't looked overwhelmed in his time in the Majors and he has put together solid at bats on a consistent basis. However, he hasn't been the player that those of us that have seen in the minors have come to love. He doesn't appear to be swinging as hard and his power has been virtually non existent. A strong second half from Moustakas could be just what Royals fans need to really buy into Mission 2012.

7. Luke Hochevar has to be better. Luke Hochevar is beginning to transition into Kyle Davies territory and if he can't put together a strong second half then I wouldn't have any problem with the Royals trading him in the offseason even though it would mean selling low.

8. Alcides Escobar building off of his offensive outburst. I'm not going to ask for Escobar to become a .300 hitter (though I think it is possible). But if he can get his average up into the high .260s by the end of the year, Royals fans will recognize the value that he brings with his glove and an average bat for the position.

9. Continued dominance from the bullpen. The bullpen has a huge bright spot for the 2011 Royals and the best news is that every single pitcher is under team control through at least 2014. If this unit can continue to find success and dare I say even improve, it could be a tremendous asset for the Royals moving forward.

10. Mike Montgomery righting the ship and even finding time in Kansas City this summer could be huge for Royals fans expectations for 2012. The glaring weakness of this team is the rotation. The team needs a frontline starter. Montgomery has that potential and if he can continue to dominate like he did in his last two starters Royals fans should really start to have a lot of confidence for 2012.

What to do with Joakim

It appears that after abandoning his cutter Soria has refound his pre 2011 form. This is huge news for the Royals, because if Soria would have continue to fall off the ledge as it appeared he was doing it could have really hurt the timetable for contention. The good news is that he has gotten back to being the dominant closer that we have come to know and love.

As for his role in contention it would seem that it will play out in one of two ways. (The third way which I discussed about a month ago, is obviously not a legitimate option in the organization's eyes.) The first way that Soria could play into the Royals future is as the closer. Make no mistake about it Soria could very easily fit into this team's future.

Of course now is when you respond by saying "thank you captain obvious." The reason I say this though is because when reading outside sources they often seem to act as though since the Royals aren't contending now, there is no reason to keep him when they could trade him for pieces that fit into the future wave. This thought process is flat out wrong.

Soria is under team control through 2014 and while this doesn't directly coincide with the controlled years of Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer and Danny Duffy. It does overlap by three and a half seasons. After which all three of the aforementioned players will hit arbitration and become more expensive.

People argue that it doesn't make sense for a non-contending team to keep a quality closer. However, if this team truly wants to and thinks it can contend as early as next season it will be important that the 9th inning is locked down and we know that Soria can do that.

But there is also another way in which Soria could play a key part in the future of the Kansas City Royals. That is by trading him. As we nearly found out the shelf life of elite major league closers is not nearly as long as we would like to believe. Also, given the way in which closers tend to be overvalued in comparison to their true value as judged by WAR, VORP and other sabermetic measurements it makes sense to flip a closer for more valuable parts.

If Joakim Soria has truly regained his value since his return to the closer role, then the Royals need to strongly consider offers for him. When you look at how next year's roster is taking shape there are a couple of glaring holes: starting pitching and catching. Also, when you look at the middle of the order for the coming years it would also seem that the Royals could use an elite right handed bat to stick in between Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer.

It is true that the Royals could probably get by in the catching front with a veteran in the Matt Traenor mold. They could also wait and hope that Salvador Perez pans out in the way that they are hoping. The Royals also could have that middle of the order right handed bat playing right field Northwest Arkansas right now.

But consider that Salvador Perez wasn't even rated in the top 10 catching prospects by mlb.com and that Wil Myers probably needs the rest of this season in Northwest Arkansas and could benefit by a full season in Omaha. Given this timetable he would be positioned for a promotion in mid April 2013. Effectively delaying his free agency two years later than Moustakas and Hosmer, while also positioning his controlled years closer to his peak years of control.

There is a team out there that could fit the Royals needs in a trade for Joakim Soria. It also happens to be a team that has been hot and heavy for Soria for years, and according to sources has been in discussions with the Royals on the matter for the last week. That team is the hated New York Yankees.

So let's examine what a deal could look like between the two clubs:

The Must Have

Jesus Montero

Here is the guy that could be placed fourth in the Royals future order. He entered the season as the number three prospect in baseball. He is a career .309/.366/.494 hitter in the minors despite being considerably younger than the competition at every stop. He is right handed catcher that is just twenty-one years old and has already shown the ability to hit at the triple-A level. He boasts a 70 on both the batting and power scouting scales and has drawn comparisons to Miguel Cabrera.

The downside is that Montero positions himself at catcher on the diamond, even though most don't believe he can actually play catcher. If the Royals acquired him a trade they could either bite the bullet and deal with him at catcher like the Mets did with Mike Piazza or they would have to find a creative solution. This solution could either be moving Eric Hosmer to an outfield corner, or trading their other top trading chip Billy Butler to allow Montero to become a full time designated hitter.

The Wish We Could Get Him Too

Austin Romine

Romine entered the season rated as the number six prospect in the Yankees organization and the number 98th overall according to Baseball America. Romine is considered a well rounded prospect that has a good shot at staying behind the plate. Reports are that he has cut down on his passed balls, however, he still owns just a 25% career caught stealing percentage. Scouts say he has a strong arm so I speculate that this is more mechanics and footwork than anything else.

Romine has improved his catching and his bat. This season he is hitting .291/.353/.408 in double-A. If he was acquired he could catch the remainder of the season in Omaha and if he showed enough with the bat could be given the opportunity to open the 2012 season as catcher for the Royals.

It would seem strange that the Yankees would be willing to part with two of their strong catching prospects. However, I speculate that since the Yankees have a short term solution in Russel Martin they may be willing to wait for Gary Sanchez who could be the best of the bunch. They also have J.R. Murphy who is a pretty good catching prospect himself.

One or Two of these Guys

Dellin Betances

Betances entered the 2011 rated as the number 43 prospect by Baseball America and as the third best prospect in the Yankees organization. He is a 6-8 righty that can dial it up into the mid 90s. He also has a great curve that some rate as a 70 on the scouting scale. Whether he winds up as a front in starter or dominant reliever will hinge on his change up which is average at best. Some scouts believe that the change up could one day be his third plus offering.

Betances currently boasts a 2.37 era in 64 innings at the double-A level. He could be Major League ready by Opening Day next season and could be a work horse front end guy. I am not sure if the Yankees would consider dealing him in a trade already involving Jesus Montero, but he along with the next pitcher would have to be at the top of the list of pitchers to inquire about.

Manny Banuelos

Interestingly enough Banuelos entered the year ranked fourth in the Yankees system behind Betances, but 41st overall two spots ahead of Betances in Baseball America's top 100. Banuelos is listed at 5-10, 155 and pitches from the opposite side of the rubber as Betances. The Mexican native normally sits in the low 90s but has hit 95 on the gun in the past.

Banuelos is also regarded for having top notch command. His changeup and curveball could one day be plus pitches and are already above average offerings. Banuelos has currently logged 69.1 innings this season in Double-A. He has a 3.38 era while posting the highest walk rate of his career at 4.8 per 9. The Yankees seem to be enamored with Banuelos so I don't know that the Royals could pry him away in a deal.

Hector Noesi

Noesi doesn't have quite the prospect flair as either of the two other pitchers we have discussed, but he is just twenty-four years old and owns a 3.20 career era over 373.2 minor league innings. He has only pitched in 20.2 innings so far in 2011, but has posted a 3.92 era in Triple-A. The concern is that his walk rate has spiked in those innings and his k rate has taken a dip.

He is near major league ready, but only really projects as a back end starter. His fastball sits in the low 90s, and he has a good changeup with tailing action. But without a breaking pitch his potential is limited.

Adam Warren

Warren like Noesi has been an extremely effective starter in the minors despite not having the prospect status like Banuelos or Betances. Warren owns a career minor league era of 2.45 with a k:bb of 3:1. His fastball hits the lows 90s with a bit of deception. He has a fringey changeup and throws a cutter and curveball that need to develop for him to be a front end guy. If his breaking stuff doesn't develop his fastball could be good enough to land him in a big league bullpen.

David Phelps

Phelps is very similar to Adam Warren. Phelps often works in the low 90s and he also has a decent curveball. Entering the season it was said that he needs to develop his change up into an average pitch at least in order to really develop into a strong prospect. He may be doing that considering he has a 3.38 era in 85.1 innings for Triple-A Scranton. His k rate is currently 7.8 and his walk rate is 2.3. These numbers suggest that he is near Major League ready.

In my opinion the Royals would need to get the following Jesus Montero, plus either Austin Romine, Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos, and also one of Hector Noesi, Adam Warren, or David Phelps. Another prospect that could be discussed is Slade Heathcott. He doesn't directly fit into the Royals needs for contention, but the guy has five tool potential and could be a steal if the Royals acquired him.

It'll be tough for the Royals to pull the trigger in a deal for Joakim Soria. He represents so much to the organization and particularly the scouting department. They shouldn't make the deal unless they are blown away. But it is possible that a deal could be presented to make the move worthwhile.

If the Royals can fill multiple holes by dealing Soria it could push them closer to contention. If they traded Soria in a deal like the one I just mentioned they could then also look to move Billy Butler, given that Montero could take his spot at DH. Crow could move into the closer's spot and another starter could be ready to fight for a rotation spot.

The Royals are in a good position there are two routes they could move in. They could stand pat and play it safe. Giving them a closer for the next three and half seasons that could be lights out. Or they could roll the dice and risk winding up with less, opening a hole at the back end of the pen while not filling the holes they were expecting to. Or the trade could pay off and Crow becomes a dominate closer, with Montero becoming the second coming of Cabrera and a pitcher establishing themselves as a key member of the rotation.

What do you think?

Catching Up

I am finally back in the States, so I am glad to get to watch Royals games once again. It was a tough month but I followed the boxscores every day and it seems like I didn't miss much in the form of great baseball.

When I left on Tuesday, May 17 the Royals were 20-20. While I was gone the Royals played at a 9-17 clip, and since I have returned they are 1-1. What is really amazing though is that even though the Royals have played so horrible over the last month they find themselves only 7 games out of first.

The summer is far from over and there are definitely signs of life from the boys in blue. The Royals are 4-2 in their last six games, and for a team that has historically played well agains the National League there could be reason for optimism moving forward.

The Royals winning percentage over the last six seasons against NL clubs is .577. They are 1-2 so far this season so for them to put up a similar winning percentage in 2011 they would have to finish interleague play at a 9-6 mark.

The division is shaping up to be a tight race moving forward so if the Royals can get one hot streak they are going to find themselves right in the thick of things once again. Just as they were a month ago.

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While I was gone the Royals also drafted local legend Bubba Starling with the fifth overall selection of the draft. I would love to see the Royals sign Starling fast and get him some games as soon as possible. I even have a slight hope that because Nebraska reports for football on July 10 that there could be pressure for him to strike a deal sooner rather than later. However, most likely the negotiations will go right down to the wire.

As for my thoughts on the selection. I think that given the way the draft unfolded the Royals weren't really left with the opportunity to go another route without clearly making a reach selection. Given the factors at play I believe the Royals made the best selection for their organization.

Also, given the way they were so high school heavy in the later rounds, I think it is apparent that they are committed to the first wave as is, and have now begun the process of focusing on that second wave. Given the work the team has done in Latin America and through the draft in the later rounds, they are already way ahead of where they were four years ago when they first began work on the first wave.

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The other major story for the Royals over the last month was the promotion of Mike Moustakas. Moustakas's season line may not have been screaming domination, but over the last month and a half he caught fire. The promotion was warranted, and it is just the latest move that helps to put the Royals into serious contention in 2012.

Going into the season the Royals needed to get Hosmer and Moustakas as many big league at bats as possible in order to allow them to be ready to hit the ground running in 2012. By promoting these two players when they did I believe they will have successfully accomplished this goal.

The Harvest of the Process

Well that was probably the shortest shelf life ever for a Royals blog poll. Just over twenty-four hours ago I asked the fans: which of the Royals elite prospects would be the first to reach the Majors. Of course if it is any consolation Eric Hosmer was leading the race with 6 votes compared to 2 for Danny Duffy and 1 for Mike Moustakas.

Eric Hosmer's promotion to the majors has already become a symbol for the Royals' fan base. It reprsents the moment that the Royals transitioned to a new stage of the Process. The stage in which the Process transitions from an underground operation with a cult following into the limelight with every Royals fan taking notice on a daily basis.

Sure the Royals have already received major contributions from several rookies. Actually six are already on the roster. Aaron Crow has been dominant in the back end of the bullpen. Jeremy Jeffress has dazzled fans with an upper 90s fastball. Tim Collins has corkscrewed his way into a key relief role. Louis Coleman has deceived hitters throughout his first couple of weeks in Royal blue. Nate Adcock has transitioned from mop up duty to sinker ball specialist. Jarrod Dyson has almost single handedly stolen multiple wins from the jaws of defeat.

But now the Royals will finally tap into that cashcrop of prospects that set a record for placing the most players ever on the Baseball America top 100 prospect list. Eric Hosmer, who many regard as the third best hitting prospect in all of Minor League baseball will make his debut tonight.

We are no longer tasting the appetizer and we are no longer seeing the tip of the iceberg. What is about to happen in Kansas City will be the main course of what Royals hope will be a five course dinner that leads to multiple postseason appearances and dare we say World Series titles.

Prior to the season it seemed that every major publication that predicted future World Series winners was calling for big time results in Kansas City as soon as 2013. Royals fans have even discussed Mission:2012 as the calling card for the Royals ascension to contention. But now, with the Royals 17-14, just 4.5 behind the surprise Cleveland Indians and tied for first in the AL Wilcard race. Royals fans look at how Detroit, Chicago and Minnesota are struggling.

Royals fans look at Alex Gordon, Jeff Francoeur, and Wilson Betemit, all guys who have been previously regarded as top prospects who are now entering the prime of their careers. All of which are currently in the process of breaking out. Sure in a month we could be talking about how all have fallen off after their blazing starts. But is it totally unreasonable to hope or even assume that this could be more?

What if Gordon, Francoeur, and Betemit really have turned a corner in their careers? Shouldn't the Royals attempt to grab the race by the throat and go for it? Apparently the organization feels like they should. With the promotion of Eric Hosmer the Royals have announced to the rest of the AL Central and the American League that it is time to stop messing around. If Gordon, Francoeur, and Betemit can continue to rake we won't be looking forward to 2012 anymore. Instead the Process will be looking at Operation:2011.

Tonight the Royals will improve the heart of their order by hitting Eric Hosmer sixth and they will improve their infield with Eric Hosmer at first. Eric Hosmer will be granted the luxury of hitting in the middle of the order with hot sticks in front of him and on most nights Wilson Betemit hitting behind him.

I prefer Hosmer in this spot. It is the perfect place where Hosmer can produce and come up to the plate in important situations, but also not have the weight of the offense on his back. I also believe that on night's when Wilson Betemit is hitting 7th Hosmer will benefit from a strong bat in the on deck circle. Teams will be forced to pitch to the rookie much more than if his protection was Matt Traenor or Brayan Pena.

This brings up an interesting point. Was Kila Ka'aihue really granted a fair opportunity? He hit in the heart of the order at the start of the season but after a dreadful start was bumped all the way down to the 7th spot. Once there he was afforded no protection and continued to struggle. Eventually he found himself in a platoon and finally he found himself on the bench before his eventual demotion.

In Kila's last eight games there was evidence that he had begun to turn things aroud from a statistical standpoint. Obviously these cues were lost on Manager Ned Yost and General Manager Dayton Moore. Kila Ka'aihue will likely join the immortal likes of Calvin Pickering and Ken Harvey in the Royals blogosphere. Always wondering what could have been had he been granted a longer opportunity or not struggled so much out of the gate in 2011.

Ultimately though the Royals future didn't fall on the back of Kila Ka'aihue in anyway. Truth be told the best case was that he raked in 2011 and the Royals could have netted a decent prospect in return. It came to a point though that Eric Hosmer could no longer hold Hosmer back.

With just another month to go before the organization could have held off Super 2 status the team decided that Hosmer was too ready to hold back. Hosmer was hitting .439/.525/.582 through twenty-six games in Omaha. It was time to make the switch. The organization clearly felt that from both a developmental and competitive standpoint it was Hosmer's time to shine in Kansas City.

At this point in time I have little reason to doubt the Royals ability to develop prospects. Hosmer had a babip of nearly .500 and almost all of his offensive value while at Omaha had come by hitting singles. It isn't exactly what you'd hope for when it comes for a middle of the order bat, but reports are that Hosmer was hitting the ball hard almost every time up to the plate.

Hosmer has great plate discipline. He has a sweet stroke and uses the opposite field with ease. He commands the strikezone. He has been compared Joey Votto, Will Clark, Mark Teixeira, and Adrian Gonzalez. His line in Omaha doesn't scream power, but I have little doubt that he is going to rake in the Majors. He is the rare prospect whose back is going to immediately impact the Major League level.

Mark Hosmer's promotion as another tick in David Glass' favor as he continues to rebuild his fickle image. While reports that this promotion will cost the Royals upwards of $15 mill are exaggerated. There is a strong possibility that by promoting Hosmer on May 5th instead of June 15th, the Royals will have cost themselves some leverage in negotiating a long term deal and even about $7 million in his first arbitration case.

Although I don't think anyone would complain if Hosmer was awarded Ryan Howard's $10 million as a first time Super 2 arbitration eligible, given that it would mean that Hosmer will have already won an MVP award.

What Royals fans are all probably hoping is that the Royals will lock up Eric Hosmer sooner rather than later and all of the arbitration talk will be moot. It has become a popular move to provide a top young player financial security while also buying out arbitration and a couple of years of free agency.

Evan Longoria was promoted to the Majors with such a deal in place and now it is generally regarded as the most team friendly deal in all of baseball. There is a fear though that since Eric Hosmer's agent is Scott Boras the Royals won't even be granted an opportunity to lockup their young star. This fear is not necessary for Royals fans. Look at Carlos Gonzalez who just signed a 7 year, $80 million. Gonzalez, like Hosmer, is also advised by Scott Boras.

I believe that if the Royals win Hosmer will be in Kansas City longer than the typical six years of pre free agency service. Hosmer's best friend is Mike Moustakas and if the Royals start adding to the flags I have little doubt that Dayton Moore and David Glass will do everything they can to keep their superstars in Kansas City for as long as possible.

Speaking of Mike Moustakas. I am going to predict that he gets real hot starting yesterday. The promotion of Eric Hosmer to Kansas City is going to serve as a notice for all of the prospects at the triple A level. If you can help the Big club then you are going to be given that opportunity. The Royals aren't messing around and it is time to get this thing started.

Particularly Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy, and Mike Montgomery could make impacts on the Major League club. The rotation has struggled this season and Danny Duffy and Mike Montgomery could offer quick and effective upgrades. But guys like David Lough, Lorenzo Cain, and Johnny Giavotella could also get an opportunity to prove their worth this season.

The Royals offense, which is already tops in the American League with 162 runs scored just got another potent weapon to work with. With an offense that strong the Royals should continue to be right in the race and if the pitching staff can get an upgrade the Royals really could be playing meaningful games all season long. Something that I have a hard time even grasping, considering I have never witnessed it in my lifetime.

Perhaps in ten years the Royals won't celebrate on Cinco de Mayo because of Mexican heritage, but instead because they can look back on it as the day that Eric Hosmer got called up, the day the Process hit Kansas City, and the day the Royals organization finally revived itself into an American League power.