Royals Trade Lough for Valencia

In another sneaky SABR move by the Royals front office David Lough was sent to the Inner Harbor for right hand hitting, OBP deprived Danny Valencia. It didn't take the Royals Twitterverse more than an infield pop up's worth of time to realize that Valencia hits left handers at a decent clip and would be an ideal platoon partner to incumbent third baseman, Mike Moustakas.

But then...

#Royals' Dayton Moore also tells me Valencia won't platoon with Moose: “But that’s not to say Ned won’t match up in certain situations.”
— Jeffrey Flanagan (@jflanagankc) December 18, 2013

So the plot thickens.

Actually, it was extremely predictable that Dayton Moore would hesitate to label this as a platoon. There are too many factors at play. The most important of which being that Kansas City doesn't want to officially label Mike Moustakas as a platoon player. Ideally, Moustakas hits in 2014 like the prospect experts all expected him to. Yes, he has been terribly disappointing thus far in his Major League career, but there are still well respected people in the industry that expect much bigger things from Moustakas moving forward.

Nonetheless, if the Royals find themselves in a platoon situation in 2014, they could have done much worse than Danny Valencia. In 428 career plate appearances versus left handed pitching, the former 19th round selection has hit .329/.367/.513 against southpaws. Last year alone he torched lefties to the tune of a .371/.392/.639 line.

Individually, here are The Spitter's projections for Mike Moustakas and Danny Valencia for 2014 (adjusted to 600 plate appearances):

• Mike Moustakas: .237/.290/.379 with 15 home runs, a .290 wOBA and a 1.98 WAR.
• Danny Valencia: .261/.290/.445 with 20 home runs, a .312 wOBA and a 1.29 WAR.

Basically, you have a couple of guys with poor contact and even poorer walk rates. Moustakas comes in with a higher WAR thanks to an above average glove, while Valencia is below average at third. Here is what we get if we run it as a platoon between the two players with a 30/70 split in favor of Moustakas.

• .265/.307/.437 with 19 home runs, a .319 wOBA and a 2.90 WAR. 

What we see here is that if the Royals did go with a true platoon from the offset, Danny Valencia would compliment Moustakas extremely well and raise the overall production from third base by about a win.Of course, if Mosutakas does prove that he is more than a platoon player, your problem is solved anyway. If implemented correctly, this is the kind of sly move that an organization can make to grab an extra win. 

Now as for where Valencia fits into the roster puzzle. Valencia is out of options (reason why he appears to be more than a Brandon Wood, worst case scenario back up plan to Moustakas). The way the current bench sets up is backup catcher, Emilio Bonifacio, Justin Maxwell, and Jarrod Dyson. This would give the Royals 13 hitters on their active roster. 

The wise thing for the Royals to do would be to carry 14 hitters. The rotation is full of innings eaters (except for the 5 spot which figures to be occupied by either Yordano Ventura or Danny Duffy). There are also enough arms in Omaha to enable a sort of shuttle system that can stretch the bullpen deeper than a typical 6 man pen can. Dayton Moore has displayed the creativity to successfully utilize a psuedo shuttle system in the past and I believe he can do it again.

By carrying 11 pitchers instead of 14, it would enable the Royals to truly platoon Moustakas and Valencia, while also keeping a balanced bench with a nice array of skills. Maxwell could pinch hit against lefties. Dyson and Bonifacio can both run. Maxwell can hit for power. Dyson can get on base. Between Dyson and Bonifacio you have every spot on the diamond covered in case of injury or the need of a defensive replacement. 

I'm disappointed with the Royals decision to DFA George Kottaras. I still think it could wind up costing them a win. However, I think they have positioned themselves well to have a very nice bench in 2014. What is more likely to happen is that Kansas City will opt to go with the 12 man staff that they have had through a majority of the Dayton Moore era. If I had to guess, this would be it for Jarrod Dyson. 

As for David Lough, he will always be a personal favorite of mine. He is an extremely personable individual and always has a smile on his face. His rookie season was fantastic to watch and he played an enormous role in the Royals second half resurgence. I wish him all the best and I'm looking forward to watching him in an Oriole jersey next season. #YoLough.

Confirmed: Will Smith for Norichika Aoki

Wow! Have the last 12 hours been exciting for us at Royal Revival. First off, what an excellent job by our blog team to get the Will Smith for Norichika Aoki information out there. As we have said before: at this blog we have a very humble amount of connections throughout the baseball industry. Our goal has never been to be an entity that "breaks" stories.

On numerous occasions in the past we have received information and often we are forced to drop subtle hints into our posts as opposed to blasting the information out on Twitter. We have also had an internal debate about we should even take the chance of sending out information when we don't have the means to confirm it with secondary sources. Ultimately, last night our source was confident enough to give us the courage to go ahead and share the information blatantly with the Royals Twitterverse.

Even when we dispersed the information we were careful in our wording. The last thing we wanted was to come off to the Royals Twitterverse as another Scott Swaim. We were then relieved this morning to see that the source was correct in regards to the trade. Following the moment of relief we were then elated to realize that we had just broken a legitimate Major Leaguer for Major Leaguer trade. We have been even more overwhelmed by the congratulatory response that we have received by the fantastic Royals blogosphere.

Don't expect this to become a regular occurrence for us. In our 4+ years as a blog, on one hand you can count the number of moves we have actually broken (a couple of draft picks, a trade and an international signing). Most of what we hear is just internal opinions of players and rumors. Again we normally are careful about the way we sprinkle this information into our posts when we have it.

Now let's get to the deal.

Personally, I think this move makes sense for Kansas City. Between this move and the Dexter Fowler rumors it seems obviously clear that one of the Royals offseason strategies was to deal from their relief corps in an attempt to bring in a right fielder. They have now succeeded in this endeavor.

Before I analyze the implications of this specific trade, I first would like to trace its lineage.

1. Norichika Aoki acquired for Will Smith. 
2. Will Smith acquired with Sean O'Sullivan for Alberto Callaspo
3. Alberto Callaspo acquired for Billy Buckner
4. Billy Buckner drafted in the 2nd Round of the 2004 Amateur Draft

Not too shabby. Thanks to some quality trades, the Royals are still managing to return value for a second round pick that was made nearly a decade ago. So far that pick has netted the Royals 4.2 fWAR with the opportunity to keep on giving. 

As for Aoki, he's an excellent fit for the Royals moving forward. One of my fears entering the offseason was that the Royals would allow history to repeat itself. In an attempt to find a power bat, they would sacrifice defense and on base percentage for home runs and rbi's (Mike Jacobs, cough). Dreams of Mark Trumbo in a Royals uniform danced through my head.

I even wondered if the Royals best course of action might be to go into 2014 with David Lough manning right. After all, in just 96 games he managed to post 2.4 fWAR. Unfortunately, I don't think the Royals trust Lough to post a similar mark in 2014. I would agree.

Lough is extremely BABIP dependent as an offensive player. In 2013, he walked 3% of the time and struck out 15.5% of the time. Both of these marks compare very unfavorably to Aoki who walked at an 8.2% clip and struck out at 5.9%, Based off these numbers I think there is a pretty safe bet that Aoki's offense will be better moving forward despite the difference in age. 

Lough's true value in 2013 stemmed from his stellar defense in right field. The issue is that we aren't dealing with an enormous sample size. Yes, Lough is a strong defender, but is he one of the best in baseball? I don't know that he is. Meanwhile, according to the Fielding Bible Aoki was the fifth most valuable defensive right fielder in baseball a season ago.

I don't know that Aoki provides the Royals with a huge upgrade from Lough's 2013 version. The problem simply was that it would have been very risky for the Royals to count on getting Lough's 2013 version again in 2014. Next season, Aoki will bring the consistency of a strong glove and strong on base percentage to the Royals. For a team with multiple wild cards, it is nice to have a position that they can count on for 2-3 WAR.

As for Smith, he will be missed but his loss won't hurt the Royals. Given his skill set, his value is higher for a team like the Brewers than it is for Kansas City. The Royals seemed to have already sentenced him to life as a reliever. For the Brewers he should get the opportunity to pitch in the back of their rotation. 

Smith is a good relief arm, but I applaud the Royals for dealing from a position of strength. I don't think this move immediately changes the fortunes for the Royals in 2014, but it does fill one of the voids that needed to be addressed this offseason.

One additional note, I've been asked several times how I believe this affects the Beltran talks. In my opinion it doesn't. I've heard that Glass is viewing Beltran as an opportunity to really squash his non-caring image. I think if the Royals do sign Beltran, it means that Butler is on the move. 

If anything this trade this protected the Royals from themselves and their own urge to regularly play Beltran in RF. The Butler vs Beltran debate is better suited for another post. In my opinion, this move does not remove Kansas City from the Beltran equation.

Thank you again to all those who have congratulated us on breaking this trade. We appreciate the support, but most of all we appreciate to talk Royals baseball with you every single day. 

Be sure to follow each of our writers @tipof_arrowhead @PadenBennett22 @Daniel_L_Ware and myself @Landon_Adams. 

In the Cross Hairs: Alfonso Soriano

The trade deadline is just 22 days away, and it is yet to be determined whether or not the Royals will be buyers, sellers or stand patters at the deadline. My gut tells me that it will be the final of these three options, with the possibility of Kansas City making a couple of small moves to shore up the roster for the final two months of the season. Either way over the next couple of weeks I hope to take some time to focus on some individuals that might be available for little in terms of prospects. Today the spotlight is on Alfonso Soriano.

As of Tuesday, Soriano is hitting .263/.289/.459. Thanks to some power and a still above average glove in the outfield he has been worth 1.1 fWAR. However, there are also a couple of pretty big problems with Soriano. The first is his home/road split. This season at Wrigley, he is hitting .275/.306/.523. On the road that line drops to .252/.273/.404. 

The second problem with Soriano is his contract. He is currently owed roughly $8 million more in 2013 and $18 million in 2014. Quite simply, if the Cubs are willing to cover at least $21 million here the Royals should simply walk away. Truthfully, committing $5 million to a 37 year-old Soriano for the next season and a half might still be too much. (Right now, Fangraphs values 1 fWAR at roughly $5 million, so in theory for the Royals to get value here Soriano would have to be worth 1 fWAR over the next 18 months.)

The positive in terms of Soriano is that he still blisters left handed pitching. This season he has hit .317/.346/.495 against southpaws, this falls in line with his career slash of .279/.346/.518. He could be the ideal platoon partner with David Lough, who has hit just .259/.310/.296 against left handed pitching throughout his brief Major League career. 

Of course, even if the Royals and Cubs could come to an agreement involving the right players going to Chicago and the right amount of money coming back to Kansas City, Alfonso Soriano would still have to approve the trade due to his 10:5 rights. Last August, Soriano was nearly dealt to San Francisco just prior to the waiver deadline, but he vetoed the move. Would he do the same in 2013?

This season, Soriano says he would approve a trade if it gave him the chance to win. Does Kansas City fit that bill for him? For the next year and a half he would probably have a better shot at the playoffs as a Royal than as a Cub. However, is the chance so much better that he would be willing to uproot his life and change organizations? I can't say.

Ultimately, I'd be interested in Soriano if the price was right. He's still a quality fielder, which is important for our flyball oriented staff and the fact that he still hits lefties so well makes him a very strong fit with the current roster. 

I hate to speculate on the type of prospects the Cubs would demand, but the more money they are kicking back in the deal the more the Royals would have to give up. Hypothetically, if the Cubs sent back $22-26 million, I'd be comfortable giving up a guy like Chris Dwyer, Everett Teaford or Justin Marks plus a low level throw in. Unfortunately, what would really appeal to the Cubs is international pool money, but it doesn't look like the Royals would have much, if any to offer.

Whether or not this deal could happen really depends on how much the Cubs want to move their $136 million man. Cubs fans appear to have a strong desire to cut the cord for next to nothing, but I'm not sure if the front office feels the same way. Josh Vernier is right that it isn't 2007 anymore, but that doesn't mean Alfonso Soriano couldn't be a nice complementary piece to the Royals roster, if the price is right.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams

Omaha Storm Chasers Preview

Projected Lineup

LF - David Lough

SS - Christian Colon

2B - Johnny Giavotella

DH - Max Ramirez

1B - Chad Tracy

3B - Irving Falu

RF - Paulo Orlando

C - Brett Hayes

CF - Willy Taveras

Rotation

Will Smith

Ryan Verdugo

Everett Teaford

Justin Marks

Chris Dwyer

Bench

C Adam Moore, UT Anthony Seratelli, 1B Xavier Nady, 3B Brandon Wood, OF Luis Durango

Bullpen

Michael Mariot, Nate Adcock, Donnie Joseph, Louis Coleman, Buddy Baumann, Anthony Ortega,

Brian Sanches, Blaine Boyer, Atahualpa Severino, Francisely Bueno

Some notes about this year's Storm Chasers:

• Plenty of guys on the roster that can easily see some time in Kansas City, whether it's due to injury or poor performance.  Some that will be kept a close watch will be Giavotella, Lough, Smith, Joseph, Coleman, Bueno.
• We should expect another great effort out of David Lough.  The 27 year old OF was blocked from making the Royals 25-man roster by OF Jarrod Dyson, who has plus-plus speed and is out of options.  I only see Lough making it to Kansas City via injury or September call-up.
• Johnny Giavotella lost the battle for the starting spot at 2B to Chris Getz just a couple weeks ago. He had a disappointing line of .267/.283/.400 in 21 games played, collecting 12 hits in 45 ABs, 1 HR on 11 RBI, 8 SO and 0 BB.  If history repeats itself, Gio shouldn't have a problem hitting in Omaha as he has .330 avg the past 2 seasons as a Storm Chaser.  He simply hasn't proven himself in Kansas City and time is wearing thin for him to keep him in the future plans.
• SP Will Smith had a solid spring going 1-0 in 11 IP, starting 2 games, striking out 10 batters with only 1 walk, and giving up just 7 hits.  For now, he'll get some innings in Omaha until an opportunity arises for him to head south to Kansas City. 
• Everett Teaford, Nate Adcock, Donnie Joseph, Louis Coleman, and Francisely Bueno could easily log innings in Kansas City.  Teaford and Adcock will be primarily used as spot starters if needed in a pinch.  Joseph, Coleman, and Bueno all had good springs and could be in the 'pen at some point.  Coleman will start off in Omaha only because he has options and J.C. Gutierrez, who won the final spot in the pen, is out of options.  Bueno will definitely be considered for a call up after compiling an impressive 1.56 ERA during his stint with the Royals last season.  Joseph, who had a 1-0 record with a 4.15 ERA in 11 games last year for Omaha, will spend a little time away from Kansas City as he was rather roughed up upon arriving to the Royals.  In 21 IP, he gave up 8 runs and had a meager 19/13 K to BB ratio.
• As the season progresses, the Storm Chasers could quite possibly add P Yordano Ventura and Jason Adam if they continue to flourish through the system, and a slight chance of having SS Orlando Calixte make an appearance.

Lough Optioned to Omaha; Mendoza named 5th Starter

The inevitable has occured.  OF David Lough, 27, was optioned to Triple-A Omaha last night after the Royals 8-2 victory over Zack Greinke and the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Lough was having an outstanding Spring, compiling a line of .455/.467/.636 in just 24 games for Kansas City.  He had 20 hits in 44 plate appearances  seven of those going for extra bases (6 doubles, 1 triple).  He also collected 5 RBI and 3 SB, striking out twice and taking just one walk.

I was a little disappointed to hear the news, only because Lough has done everything asked of him and then some more down in the minors and has clearly earned a spot on the big league roster.  Unfortunately, as I mentioned in my Opening Day Roster post, he's blocked by the more desired Jarrod Dyson, who is out of options.  Luckily for David, he has options remaining which indeed helps him tremendously.  Dyson is lightning fast and will provide great presence in the need of a pinch runner or when Lorenzo Cain needs a day of rest out in CF.

Lough should very well be the first OF to be called up in the need of a replacement for injury, should one arise this season.  If all goes according to plan, he should dominate in Omaha again until the opportunity comes a knockin'.

Along with Lough being sent down, OF Xavier Nady and LHP George Sherrill were both released from the Royals.  Nady hit .346 in 13 games with the Royals, while Sherrill is still on recovery from TJ surgery.


Also announced today, which I'm very pleased to hear, Luis Mendoza was named the 5th starter to finalize the rotation.  Mendoza, who came into the rotation and provided good innings for the Royals, has pitched in 3 games in ST, starting 2 of them.  He has a 2-0 record with a 0.82 era in 11 IP, striking out 8 and walking just 2 batters, while giving up just 1 earned run.

Since Mendoza wins the race, Bruce Chen will make the move to the bullpen, along with former starter Luke Hochevar.  It will be interesting to see how long Chen can last, considering his spring so far giving up 12 runs in 13.2 IP, his age, and that he doesn't throw hard.

I'm not going to lie, I like what I've seen from 'Relief Pitcher Luke Hochevar'.  Especially after watching him last night coming into the 9th against the Dodgers.  His fastball was electric and his curveball was untouchable.  Even though the only batter worth mentioning in the 9th was Juan Uribe, you can't ignore the fact that Luke has done well coming into relief.  Since being eliminated from the rotation race, he has 5 innings of relief, he has 7 strikeouts, 0 walks, and has given up 2 hits.  Wade Davis made a nice transition to the bullpen last year for the Rays, hopefully this output from Luke can transition into this season.  If it does, he can be flat out filthy for us. (You don't hear that sentence everyday.)

Dan's Opening Day Roster

Every year since high school, we would gather 'round in journalism class and decipher who should play where, who will be in the rotation and bullpen, and then get our Opening Day previews ready for our newspaper 'The Ragout.'  Granted, the reception for the Royals preview wasn't always a huge hit because it didn't involve the Cardinals, which made us enjoy it even more, but I digress.  Obviously, this season has a whole new feeling to it.

Ever since the massive trade that sent Wil Myers to Tampa in exchange for James Shields and Wade Davis, we've been transformed into a "we're going for it" baseball team.  This is what makes baseball so great.  Clearly, the kind of spring we're having right now doesn't really mean anything, although it's very nice to see some wins.  Spring Training is more than just shaking the cob webs off, it's about figuring out your new, adjusted roster, it's about warming up for your upcoming season for players with job security, others it's about acquiring a job.

photo courtesy of royals.mlblogs.com

There are a few names that stick out as far as having a solid spring, others haven't been so lucky, and a few..well we just expected it.  Of course, Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas should be at the top of the list as far as those having successful pre-seasons.  The other, without any argument, is David Lough.  Now 27, Lough has made a case for deserving a spot on the roster in Kansas City, and rightfully so.

His situation, unfortunately  is against him.  In front of Lough, the likely candidate for the 4th OF spot is Mr. Zoombiya himself, Jarrod Dyson, who of course is out of options.  Fortunately, Lough does have options.  Don't get me wrong, I've been a big fan of Lough.  He's given a great effort at every level and has produced quite nicely, but the cards have just been played against him for so long.  I think it's fair to say that he's well overdue for a longer stint in the bigs.

As for those not performing up to protocol, we all know who is at the top of that list: drum roll please.......Jeff Francoeur.  Last year's .235/.287/.378 line from Jeff was absolutely unacceptable.  All season, it was such an eye sore to see him in his locked up 5th spot in the lineup and day after day, just not produce like he did in 2011.  Frenchy, known for his positive clubhouse presence, took it personal.  This past off-season he started working out with Alex Gordon, which obviously has it's advantages, but even though he's lost weight and got into the gym constantly, the spring has been just another "Frenchy" performance.  With that said, he has made aggressive comebacks before and it will be interesting to see how his 2013 summer will kick off.

Let's get down to brass tacks.  This is my lineup that I wouldn't mind watching on April 1st, and hopefully it's no joke:

LINEUP

LF - Alex Gordon

SS - Alcides Escobar

1B - Eric Hosmer

DH - Billy Butler

C - Sal Perez

3B - Mike Moustakas

RF - Jeff Francoeur

CF - Lorenzo Cain

2B - Johnny Giavotella

BENCH

C - George Kottaras

OF - Jarrod Dyson

OF - David Lough

IF - Elliot Johnson

ROTATION

James Shields

Jeremy Guthrie

Ervin Santana

Wade Davis

Luis Mendoza

BULLPEN

RHP - Luke Hochevar

LHP - Bruce Chen

RHP - Aaron Crow 

RHP - Kelvin Herrera

LHP - Tim Collins

LHP - Donnie Joseph

RHP - Greg Holland

Time to be a little realistic.  First of all, Chris Getz will likely be the chosen one for second base.  In today's game against the Cubs, Giavotella committed a throwing error and went 1-3 giving him an avg. of .278, while Getz went 1-2 with an SB, making his avg. rise to .303.  In my opinion, I believe if Gia were hitting well, he would fit in nicely in the 2 spot.  

Next, I don't see any scenario, except mine, where Dyson and Lough ride the bench together, unless Yost decides to do a platooning situation.  In the real world, Dyson will be in Kansas City, and consequently, Lough will be heading north to Omaha.  To replace Lough on the bench, as much as I hate saying it, Miguel Tejada will likely be the guy.  Recently, Guillermo Moscoso was released from the team, clearing a spot on the 40-man, which has Tejada's name written all over it.  

As for pitchers, I believe Luis Mendoza earned a spot in the rotation after an acceptable September and October, going 1-1 in 6 starts, compiling a 2.48 era in 36.1 IP, striking out 27 and walking just 9.  Hell, we can say Mendoza was easily the best pitcher on our staff in 2012.  Now remember, we do have Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino to fit in the mix later in the season, which gives the Royals (and us) options for either injuries or failure to meet expectations.

Finally, the piece de resistance: the bullpen.  Louis Coleman most likely starts off in Omaha, only because he has options while Hoch and Chen do not.  At this point, I believe Donnie Joseph has made a strong case for joining the pen, as it gives the Royals the privilege of having a 3rd left-handed reliever, along with Chen and Tim Collins.  Battling for the final spot, J.C. Gutierrez is said to be in the running, but considering he's out of options and his lackluster spring, I don't see him getting into the 'pen.

Prospect Countdown: #25 David Lough

25. David Lough Outfielder

AP Photo by Reed Hoffmann

Age: 26
Position: OF
Height: 5-11
Weight: 180
B/T: L/L
Acquired: Drafted in 11th Round of 2007 Amateur Draft
From: Akron, OH

Paden Bennett (NR):  Lough has been around for awhile now, and I have always had a soft spot for him.  He just gets it done every season.  A minor league career average of .294 with a .346 obp are awesome numbers.  I've always hoped he would take those numbers to the next level and become a staple in the Royals outfield for years to come but he hasn't ever made that jump but that doesnt mean hes not productive.  Lough can be a very productive player in the majors as a platoon guy, and I think he fits that bill in KC this season.

Joe Cox (20): David Lough is a player that could find himself on the major league roster for the entire 2013 season if he stays productive.  Lough is an athletic outfielder who can play all three positions and has shown throughout his minor league career that he can do a little bit of everything.  The soon to be 27 year old Lough got his first taste of the majors as a September call-up last season hitting .237 in 59 major league AB’s.  Lough earned the call-up after hitting .275/.317/.420 with AAA Omaha.  I read somewhere that Lough could be the Royals next Mitch Maier and I think that makes a lot of sense.  His defense and speed make him a valuable major league bench player, and on a team that currently has a thin outfield, Kansas City could use him in fairly regularly in 2013.

Damion Mandalas (NR): I've always been a David Lough fan. I really like what Joe said regarding a potential future as a Major League fourth outfielder. He's a guy that will likely never provide the production to be a first division regular, but he could be a valuable fourth or fifth outfielder. He has enough speed to steal and pinch run. He has enough contact and power to be a decent pinch hitter. He has enough range to fill in at any outfield spot. I like Lough and I think he is valuable as a depth piece moving forward. 

Dan Ware (NR):  Lough has endured his fair share of minor league ballgames.  640 to be exact.  That's quite the number for a 27 year old.  Although his short stint in Kansas City last season wasn't spectacular, at least he finally got a chance to play at Kauffman.  I'd like to see Lough in a Royals uniform all come April, but with our OF situation and Jarrod Dyson being the likely candidate for the 4th OF spot, David could see a lot more plate appearances in Omaha, rather than KC.  You can't argue with his solid career in the minors, the guy deserves a shot ("We said that about Ka'aihue and look what happened to him").  Not only has Lough been consistent with the bat over the years, he's got plus speed and he's a great in the outfield.  I hate to say this, but if he's going to be an everyday OF, I don't think it will be in a Royals uniform.

Total Points: 11

Royals add to Outfield "Depth"

The Kansas City Royals added another piece to the Omaha Storm Chasers outfield today when they announced the signing of former Royal great Endy Chavez to a Minor League deal.

Chavez has played in 974 games at the Major League level. Over that time he has hit .269/.286/.333 but has received enormous praise for his glove work. In fact, Chavez may lay claim to the greatest catch in MLB postseason history. If you don't remember it, you can view it here.

Just a few days ago, I wrote a few paragraphs regarding the type of outfielder the Royals could target to complement Jeff Francoeur. I talked about a left handed hitter, or at least a guy that could eventually partner in platoon and also a guy that was very good defensively, so that if he didn't hit, he could at least offer some upgrade in the form of his glove. On the surface it appears that the left handed Endy Chavez fits that exact mold. However, a closer examination would reveal that Chavez isn't quite the answer that one might have hoped.

While Endy Chavez was an absolute stud defensively for a four year period from 2006-09, his defense has sunk to just slightly above average over the past couple of seasons. Also, despite being left handed, Chavez has never displayed much in the way of a platoon advantage and his .676 career OPS against right handers is almost identical to the .675 he posts against southpaws.

Ultimately, the signing was just a Minor League deal and you will never hear me criticize a Minor League free agent signing. There is no point. The risk is so insignificant that there isn't any reason for people to be critical of these types of additions. My only point, is that Chavez doesn't fill the role that I have been advocating the Royals to attempt to fill. This doesn't mean I don't like the addition from a depth standpoint, merely that I believe Kansas City should continue to search for a lefty outfielder that could complement Frenchy on the Major League roster. I do not think Chavez is that guy.

As of now, the Royals are likely out on any other Minor League additions in the outfield department. They already have Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, Francoeur and Jarrod Dyson for the Major League roster, David Lough fighting for the 5th outfield spot and Xavier Nady, Willy Taveras, and now Chavez on Minor League deals. Basically as of now they have nine players between the outfields of Kansas City and Omaha. The Royals don't necessarily need to, but I still believe it makes sense to add one more outfielder on a Major League deal for 2013, if the right player presents himself. With Cain's injury history, Francoeur's poor performance, and some question marks that still surround Dyson, depth could be extremely important.

The Right Field Problem

Over the last couple of weeks, I cannot help but to think a lot about the Royals problem in right field. Thanks to the confidence of Bob Dutton's tweets, I have resigned myself to the fact that Jeff Francoeur will be the guy entering 2013. However, while Dutton has made this point very clear, he has also been clear that should Frenchy struggle out of the gate, the Royals will search out alternatives. Dutton has also suggested that the Royals might seek out a low cost option to push Francoeur this Spring.

The way I see it, this leaves Kansas City with two realistic low cost options. The first of which is to sign a cheap defensive oriented type. The second is to find a left handed option that could eventually platoon with the French Man.

By searching out a defensive option, Kansas City could open the season with the individual as the fourth or fifth outfielder. If Francoeur struggles out of the gate as most expect, the defensive oriented guy can provide slide in for Francoeur as a placeholder until a better option can be acquired. By getting a player that is good defensively, the Royals can at least obtain some sort of value upgrade over Francoeur who will likely be bad both at the plate and on the diamond.

The other option is likely a pipe dream out of the gate, but might be a possibility as the season progresses. The solution here would be to sign a hitter that excels against right handed pitching. For his career, Francoeur possesses a .820 OPS against left handed pitchers, but just a .702 OPS against righties. Of course, in 2013, Francoeur was awful against both, but even then his OPS was 43 points higher against southpaws.

It is hard for me to imagine the Royals totally cutting ties with Jeff Francoeur, but I could envision a scenario in which they first try to mitigate his poor performance by platooning him with another player. Of course, the Royals don't necessarily have to go outside of the organization to find Francoeur a platoon partner.

Jarrod Dyson and David Lough are both left handed and could settle into a platoon with Frenchy by season's end. Toying around with the projection machine, assuming last year's production, a platoon of Dyson and Francoeur could be worth about a 1.3 wins more than Francoeur playing everyday. This may not sound like a large amount, but when you are in Kansas City's position a single win could go a long way in improving the team's playoff odds.

Prospect Countdown: #16 David Lough

#16 David Lough


Age: 26
Position: OF
Height: 5-11
Weight: 180
B/T: L/L
Acquired: Drafted in 11th Round of 2007 Amateur Draft
From: Akron, OH




Former Division 2 standout David Lough has always been a personal favorite of mine. Most wouldn't rank him as high as I have him, but this is my list and I'm confident that Lough is a safe bet to be a solid Major League 4th outfielder or second division regular. I see Lough as a Major League ready prospect.

Unfortunately for Lough in the past 12 months the outfield has transitioned from question mark to set in stone for the 2012 season. Due to Lough's weak arm left field is the best fit defensively and as you might know the Royals are set there for at least the next two seasons. Long term the Royals have added a  bevy of outfield prospects and are now among the games deepest farm system's in that regard.

Lough has good gap power as evidenced by his 41 doubles and 23 triples in his last two AAA seasons. He's extremely athletic and is a plus runner, but his limited home run power and age limit his ceiling. At this point Lough sits behind Mitch Maier, and Jarrod Dyson on the Royals back up outfield depth chart. He gives the organization good outfield depth, but if he gets a shot in the Majors I envision it coming for another organization.

Picture taken from OmahaBaseball360.com

What are we waiting for?

Bob Dutton made some noise on the Royals blogosphere and twitterverse last night when he released a story stating that the "goal" of Dayton Moore and the front office was to get Johnny Giavotella 100-150 Major League at bats this season.

So what would it take for the Royals to meet that goal? Well there are twenty-five games in September and considering that Yost is planning on starting Giavotella everyday he could get close to the lower end of that goal should he be called up on September 1.

More likely though Giavotella will need to be called up in mid-August and handed the everyday duty the rest of the season in order to comfortably fall into that 100-150 at bat range. So my question is this: if you are already virtually naming him the starter for the last month or month and a half of the season why not bring him up now?

Perhaps, there are service time issues that the Royals can benefit from should they wait until mid-August? Well, unless the Royals wait until several weeks into the 2012 season Giavotella will be a free agent after the 2017 season. The same time as Moustakas, Hosmer, Duffy, and the bevy of relievers. Also, the Royals are way past the Super Two cutoff so that is no concern either. So obviously service time isn't the reason he is still in Omaha.

I guess maybe the Royals feel like he isn't quite Major League ready. That would be a great reason for Giavotella to still be in Omaha, except for it is obviously not true. In fact Giavotella has proven himself more in Omaha than any rookie on the Major League roster not named Eric Hosmer.

Gio currently is hitting .339/.391/.482 in Omaha and since the all star break his line has been .392/.427/.581. In the last two months he has posted an OPS over 1.000. No, it is pretty clear the bat is Major League ready. So that leaves just one reason why Giavotella isn't in the Majors.

Obviously Giavotella is blocked by a superior player. Wait... What? The player blocking Giavotella is Chris Getz? The guy that has set a record for Royals at bats without a home run? The guy that is hitting .259/.317/.288 for the season?

So obviously there is no good reason for Giavotella still being in Triple-A. My guess is that one more cold streak by Getz will result in a move. Obviously the Royals would like to try and flip Getz for something useful, but I can't see why a team would give anything up for him.

Getz does have options remaining, but he will be arbitration eligible for the first time this winter making him more expensive. (Although I can't imagine him making seven figures.) He could go back to Omaha and be a back up guy should Giavotella fail miserably or get hurt in 2012. This is the solution I would take with Getz. Control inventory and take advantage of depth.

The Royals have already made it clear that they want Giavotella to be the starter for at least the final month of the season. So why wait? I realize that if they bring him up now they will probably net him close to 200 Major League at bats. But seriously, since when is it bad to exceed a goal? Giavotella has warranted a promtoion and is ready to go. Give him the rest of the at bats as the starting second sacker for the rest of the season and he should be ready to hit the ground running in 2012.

Giavotella isn't the only player deserving of a Major League spot. There is also the issue for Lorenzo Cain. Considering the current shape of the roster I'd prefer to keep Cain in Omaha for the next month allowing him to play everyday. Once the Omaha season ends bring him up and do your best to rotate him in and out of the lineup.

Also deserving are David Lough and Clint Robinson are also on the 40 man roster. Both have also done plenty to warrant promotions in September. There won't be enough playing time to go around to truly benefit them from a skills development standpoint. But I'd like to see them both called up to give them a taste of the Big Leagues, while rewarding them for their hard work and quality performances over the past few seasons.

Salvador Perez and Kelvin Herrera also have gotten call ups to the Triple-A recently. Both are Rule 5 eligible this winter so, should an opportunity present itself, both should be given September call ups as well. This could give them each about five weeks of playing time in Omaha that would include a playoff run (hopefully). Plus a few weeks in the Majors allowing them an opportunity to experience what Major League life is like.

The Royals are the youngest team in the Majors. But don't think the youth movement is done. We can only hope that Moustakas and Hosmer were the initial outburst from a consistent pipeline of talent.

Poll Results: Next Royal to be Called Up

Royal Revival recently posed the question "Who will be the next Royal to make their American League debut this season?" Here were our results:

Lorenzo Cain- 47%
Johnny Giavotella- 47%
Mike Montgomery- 4%

David Lough and Clint Robinson didn't receive any votes.

Where can we Upgrade?

So with the Royals surprise start, I have began to think about what it means in terms of the prospects. What should the Royals do if they stay in contention? Stick with the Major Leaguers? Promote players that could help now? Trade them? Or not let the state of the Major League team affect the plan?

I don't want to get into that discussion right now, but I do want to think what positions the Royals could upgrade by promotions from within. So let's look at the weaknesses of the Major League roster.

1. Catcher

Unfortunately I see know potential solutions at the catcher position right now. No prospects are going to be ready midseason, although at some point Jason Kendall will return from injury. This would probably mean that Pena is the odd man out and the Royals would lose all offensive potential at the position.

2. First Base

Kila Ka'aihue at this point is not getting it done. Through the first fifteen games he's hitting .174/.304/.283 and with Hosmer tearing it up in Omaha an upgrade is readily available. I believe Ka'aihue will have until early June to get something going, but if he hasn't by then it will likely be Eric Hosmer's time to shine.

3. Second Base

Should Getz falter with the bat second base is another production that could be upgraded as the season progresses. This could occur in one of two ways. The most likely probably involves a Mike Moustakas promotion and Mike Aviles sliding over across the diamond. But the other solution involves the promotion of Johnny Giavotella. Giavotella's defense is much improved and after tearing up both the Texas League and the Arizona Fall League a season ago he is off to a hot start in Omaha.

4. Third Base

In case you haven't heard the Royals have the top third base prospect in all of baseball. He is in triple-A now and a year ago he led minor league baseball in home runs. He also recorded more extra base hits than strikeouts. Mike Moustakas could provide a big boost to the middle of the order should he hit the ground running on his promotion.

5. Centerfield

Right now most fans and Kansas City media treat Melky Cabrerra like he is off to a good start. Personally I'm not a fan of sub .300 on base percentages. Most fans would suggest Lorenzo Cain as an upgrade but I'd also like to throw David Lough's name into the mix. He has a great blend of tools and if he can outproduce Cain over the next couple of months then I'd like to see him granted the first opportunity.

6. Rotation

Here is where the Royals could receive the biggest boost this season. Right now the Royals have three rotation spots that have produced consistently but they could look to bolster the rotation by promoting Mike Montgomery and/or Danny Duffy. If Davies can get it going and be a servicable back end guy then the Royals could add one of the aforementioned prospects and have a decent unit. If they added both and they both perform as they could the rotation could have two of the top young starters in baseball.

The Royals have shocked baseball with their quick start much like they did in 2003. However, unlike that season the Royals could have enough bullets in the minor league gun to reload for a Central title run. Hopefully they can continue to overachieve long enough to find out.

Prospect Countdown: 20-16

20. David Lough OF



I am definitely a big fan in the David Lough camp. After breaking out in 2009, he made a bit of noise at spring training prior to the 2010 season and I fully expected him to be called up after the deadline to replace one of the traded outfielders. This unfortunately didn't happen as Lough got off to a semi slow start in the Pacific Coast League. But what happened in the second half of the season for Lough was something that makes me even more optimistic of his future.

Prior to the all star break Lough had drawn 19 walks to 33 strikeouts in 302 at bats. His triple slash was .262/.313/.424. Obviously this is part of the reason why Lough was not given an opportunity at the big league level post trade deadline. However from that point on Lough's approach at the plate took a huge step forward from where it had been in his previous three and a half seasons.

In the second half of the season Lough posted a k:bb of 25:21. In 158 at bats he hit to a tune of .316/.403/.462. This improved plate approach helped Lough in the contact and power departments. Also, given that the major complaint against Lough was his average driven on base percentage, if these numbers are a sign of things to come then his stock only rises.

I am a fan of Lough game. He has solid tools across the board, but no real plus tools. Royals' fans often throw out comparisons to DeJesus when talking about Lough and I suppose this is fair. Although it does seem like anytime the Royals have a prospect that is solid, but doesn't have any plus tools he gets DDJ comparisons. I believe that Lough has more speed than DeJesus and could even have more power. But I believe DeJesus still gets the nod in defense, arm and plate discipline.

Lough is an athletic player that could be a defensive asset in left field. He seems like a great guy every time I have had the opportunity to talk with him (twice). He could be a very valuable fourth outfielder for a contending team and a guy that other team's would like to give more at bats as a starter.

What Gordon does in 2011 will play a significant role in Lough's future as a Royal. Given that it is hard to see Francouer as a Royals for just one season. If Gordon performs as most expect him to, Lough will be a fourth outfield option for the team. However, if Gordon struggles or if the Royals do cut ties with Francouer I hope that Lough is granted an everyday opportunity. You have to be intrigued by a guy that posts 15 doubles, 12 triples, and 11 homers in a season. (Especially when he would be moving to the triple friendly Kauffman Stadium.)

19. Jason Adam

Entering the 2010 first year player draft, I thought that Yasmani Grandal was likely to be the guy. However, the Royals threw everyone a changeup when they selected Christian Colon with their first round selection. The other thing that I expected was that the Royals would find Jason Adam at some point later in the draft and that they would then sign him to an over-slot deal much like the one Tim Melville had received a couple years before. This prediction came true when the Royals selected Jason Adam with their fifth round pick and signed him to an over-slot bonus of $800K.

Like Melville, Adam was another local product actually living roughly 20 miles away from Kauffman Stadium. So the Royals did not want to let a local product slip through the grasps and it is a good thing they didn't. In instructs Adam received glowing reviews from Royals officials as his fastball routinely sat in the mid 90s. He also flashed promising secondary offerings with a curveball in the high 70s and a low 80s change-up.

I expect Adam to stay back in extended spring training as a way to limit his innings in his first season. But after that he should report to low-a Kane County for the 2011 season.

18. Cheslor Cuthbert



Cheslor Cuthbert was one of the big international signees for the Royals in 2009. He was hailed as the top prospect to ever come from Nicaragua. He actually came from a small island off the coast of the country called the Corn Island. On this island they speak primarily English and so Cuthbert will be without the burden of learning both a new language and culture as he makes his way into professional baseball.

This is probably a major factor in the Royals decision to begin him in the states as just as seventeen year old. His final numbers weren't spectacular but when put in perspective they provide plenty of reason for optimism. His season was going very well until a hand or wrist injury wound up ending his season. Considering the kid was already playing against competition years older than him, it isn't surprising that an injury such as this could have brought a quick statistical collapse to his season.

Cuthbert won't win many races but he has good bat speed and an advanced approach at the plate. When signed several said he could one day develop into an Adrian Beltre type player. Since he is projected to have good power and strong defense I would say this is a fair comparison.

The Royals say there is no reason to be concerned about the injury and I don't see any reason to be. Cuthbert will probably stay in short season ball for 2011, but it is possible that he could start the season in Kane County if he really impresses the Royals in Spring Training.


17. Yordano Ventura




In 2008, the Royals signed Yordano Ventura out of he Dominican for $28K. But as it usually goes on the international market the best players tend to not be the fattest bonus babies. Ventura represents a good piece for the Royals scouting department. When he signed he stood 5-11 with about a 140 pounds on his thin frame. He threw in the high 80s at the time, but now he has added twenty pounds and he throws absolute gas.

His fastball is a plus-plus pitch that consistently sits in the upper 90s. He also throws an improving curveball that some project as a plus pitch and a changeup has shown flashes. Being 5-11 and Dominican, Ventura has drawn comparisons to Pedro Martinez. It seems to me as though every promising short Dominican righty draws comparisons to Pedro so I am not going to get too worked up about this.

The Royals should continue to play it safe with an arm with as much potential as Ventura's. Steadily improve the workload as he is progressed through the minors. However, first sign of trouble I wouldn't be opposed to moving him to the pen where he instantly becomes a future closer. If he can prove that he can handle the workload he has front end potential written all over him.

Ventura should spend 2011 in short season ball in either the Appalachian or Pioneer League.

16. Robinson Yambati

Given their similar ascension up the Royals prospect charts, their nationalities, and their ability to throw heat Ventura and Robinson Yambati could be discussed as a pair for a long time. Yambati has larger frame than Ventura as he stands at 6-3, 185. For this reason I am going to give Yambati the slight odd, because his body type doesn't scare me quite like Ventura's does.

Yambati's fastball isn't quite on Ventura's level but he has hit the mid 90s on the gun before. He also has curve and a change that both need development. Given his size I expect him to stick in the rotation and one day he could play a critical role for the organization as a rookie and on. Just imagine in 2015 the Royals are in a thick playoff race and a starter goes down due to injury. The Royals call up Yambati and instantly he steps right in and succeeds.

Yambati and Ventura are going to be part of a group of guys that will be called upon in crucial situations as rookies and second year guys. They are the guys that will be asked to fill the shows of their older counterparts. Think Tampa Bay Rays, who the past couple of years have had a wealth of pitching talent to take advantage of at the major league level.

Yambati could make the jump to Kane County at somepoint in 2011, or he could spend the season in short season ball building up his innings count as he prepares for the workload that full season baseball offers.