Billy Butler and Future Production

As a whole,  the Royals offense is again off to an incredibly disappointing start in 2014. Of course, there are some players that deserve the blame more than others and there are some players who receive more of the blame than others. Over the past few years, no player has teetered this line more often than designated hitter Billy Butler.

A portion of the fan base complains that Butler is fat, too slow, doesn't hit for enough power, and can't deliver in clutch situations. Another portion of the fan base points out that Butler is a career .313/.394/.460 hitter with runners in scoring position and that he gets on base at a career clip of .362. It seems as though this debate has gotten so divisive that there is no grey area in regards to Billy Butler.

Obviously, there is a segment of fans that view baseball much differently than myself. They beat their chest to stats like RBI and they prefer to keep math away from their evaluation of players. Obviously, many of these individuals greatly undervalue the strengths of Butler. More surprising to me are the analytics on the other side of the fence that are unable to see flaws in Butler's game as well as some of his concerning trends.

In regards to last season, it is true that Butler was valuable to the offense. His 116 RC+  was the second best among everyday hitters in the lineup. At the same time, it is not unfair to expect more from Butler. In 2013, he was coming off a 138 RC+ and the Royals were pushing the chips into the center of the table. Despite this there were reports of him coming to camp overweight, and then in season his average flyball distance dropped from 297 to 276 feet. As a result his HR/FB% nose dived, his home run total dipped, and his slugging percentage fell all the way to .412.

Yes, if all things were created equal, Butler was not the problem with last season's offense. However, Butler wasn't expected to simply be one of the best hitters in the lineup. He was expected to be one of the best hitters in the American League. After a season which saw him bop a career high 29 home runs, Butler seemed poised to be one of the most dangerous hitters in the American League in his age 27 season.

What most of us have seemed to underestimate though is just how much more harsh the aging curve is for heavy players than it is for average sized individuals. Here is a look at the aging curves of the two body types, with Butler's OPS numbers overlayed:

As you can see, the curve of heavier players dips much earlier in the player's career than it does for average sized individuals. For Butler's own sake, I haven't even included this year's numbers in the illustration of how his own aging curve is playing out. If you are a defendant of Billy Butler and you like to cite advanced statistics to back up your argument, you have to recognize that there is an analytical reasoning behind the notion that Butler's skillset could regress much more quickly than the average player.

Butler appears to be heating up. In his last 9 games (yay! selective end points), he is hitting .343/.368/.514. However, not only has Butler's ground ball percentage increased in four consecutive seasons, but his average fly ball distance has also decreased. Even when he is getting the ball into the air he isn't driving it as far.

Do I expect Butler to finish the year with a sub .700 OPS? Absolutely not. But I also wouldn't bet on him getting back into the .850+ OPS range. Based off the aging curves of heavier players in the past, Butler should have two or three more seasons with an OPS around .800. However, after that it could be a pretty quick fall for the Royals former first round pick. Hopefully, Butler can prove me wrong and can stay hot throughout the rest of 2014. We all know the offense needs the lift.

Billy Butler wants to Be Royal

Since 2009, there hasn't been a sturdier piece to the Royals than designated hitter Billy Butler. Over the last five seasons, the former first round pick has locked himself into the heart of the order by hitting .302/.372/.469.

As a Royal he has compiled 12.9 bWAR and 9.8 fWAR, while earning approximately $20.79 million in salary. When you throw in the $1.45 million signing bonus that Bill the Thrill received when drafted, then the Royals have paid about $1.72 million per bWAR and $2.26 per fWAR. Those numbers figures to rise by the end of 2014, as Butler's discounted years are all used up and he will be earning $8 million with a $12.5 million option for 2015.

Obviously, Butler has had a fine career in Royals blue and his contributions to the franchise have likely already earned him a trip to the Royals Hall of Fame, but according to Jeffrey Flanagan of Fox Sports, Butler wants to be a Royals forever. Here's what our chubby DH said on the subject:

"No one wants to be playing out their final year, so if something can get done before 2015, that would be great. I'm sure they'll want to see how things go with me and the club this season before they do anything. I'm not opposed to (contract talks) during the season. But I will say most guys, and I'm in that group, generally don't like to talk contract during the season. It just gets to be a distraction. But maybe something will happen before this season starts. If not, hopefully it will happen next offseason."

In January 2011, Butler signed his first extension with the Royals. The deal guaranteed him $30 million over four seasons with a $12.5 million option for a fifth year. At the time of the deal I estimated that Butler would need to be worth about 6 fWAR during those four years to be worth the contract. In the first three years he has compiled 5.3 fWAR. The deal hasn't been the slam dunk that I thought it could, but it is safe to say the Royals will return value for the first four years of the deal.

As for the option, $12.5 million would mean that Butler needs to be about a 2.5 fWAR player in 2015. This definitely impossible, but it isn't a slam dunk either as Butler has accomplished this feat just twice over the last five seasons. With this being said, it is hard to imagine Butler performing so poorly in 2014 that his option isn't picked up in 2015.

More likely, I would envision a scenario in which the Royals might rework Butler's 2015 option into a two or three year extension at a lower cost. A three year deal for Butler following 2014, would encompass his age 29-31 seasons. If Butler truly desires to be in Kansas City above every where else, perhaps he would be willing to leave some money on the table in order to obtain some long term security.

Of course, not mentioned in all this are the rumors that Kansas City was very proactive in trying to move Butler this off-season. This is likely an indication that they feel a $12.5 million 2015 salary is too high for the full time DH. Also, there has been mention that the Royals brass want to utilize the DH spot to rotate in tired players like Salvador Perez, instead of devoting it to one player. If this is the case, then the Royals could pick up Butler's 2015 option and again look to move him next off-season.

The catch 22 is that if the Royals couldn't fair offer for Butler at $8 million in 2014, how will they be able to for $12.5 in 2015. In order to do so, Butler would need to be coming off a better year in 2014, and if he does that why wouldn't the Royals be keeping him for $12.5 next season? It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next 12 months.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

Perez and His Awesome Contract

In case you missed it, on Sunday the Kansas City Star's Andy McCullough brought us this article on the importance of a healthy Salvador Perez. There is no doubt that Salvy is one of the most important pieces to this Royals team if not the most important. We are entering Year 8 of the Process and Perez represents the crown jewel of the scouting and development system that Dayton Moore has constructed.

In just 253 professional games, Perez has accumulated 7.5 fWAR, which is easily more than any other hitter developed during the Dayton Moore regime. Perez has compiled this mark at quite the discount for Kansas City. In a time when amateur players are signing for millions of dollars, Perez signed for just $65,000.

Obviously, for Perez to develop into any sort of Major League contributor he would have proved to be an excellent investment, but Dayton Moore swooped in and signed him to a long term deal after just 39 professional games. The deal guaranteed Perez $7 million over the first five years of the deal and included three team options would could take the value all the way up to $21.75.

The deal was a masterstroke by Moore and will most likely be remembered as the best move of his tenure. The contract not only guaranteed a relatively small amount of money*, but also bought the Royals two additional years of team control. Making the deal even better has been the fact that the final three years of the contract are team options.

*Consider this, Eric Hosmer's signing bonus was $6 million. the Royals promised Perez $7 million and were able to secure 8 seasons of cost control for the catcher.

There was a stretch when Dayton Moore did a nice job of locking up several guys. Billy Butler signed a four year deal with a team option, when he was reaching arbitration for the first time. Alcides Escobar signed a four year deal with two team options when he was reaching arbitration. Alex Gordon signed a four year deal with an option when he was just a season from Free Agency.

Entering this offseason I was hopeful that the Royals could do the same for some of their current assets. I also knew that there weren't a ton of logical fits to be extension. Eric Hosmer would be a fantastic player to lock up long term, but he is a Boras client that long dreamed of playing for the Yankees. Danny Duffy, hasn't shown enough control/poise/durability to warrant a guaranteed rotation spot let along a long term contract. Mike Moustakas hit like crap last season. Lorenzo Cain is too injury prone for an extension. This only leaves a few options.

James Shields would have been awesome to extend, but given the current pitching market and the fact that he is now just a year from free agency, it seems that the Royals have missed their chance (if it ever existed). It also isn't a given that a Shields extension would even be worth it.

Greg Holland has been discussed at length on this blog over the past week. He's a guy who is probably the best best to be extended prior to 2014. Of course, in terms of players extended he's a guy that probably wouldn't create a ton of excitement. At the same time if the Royals can find value in a Greg Holland extension then they should absolutely jump at the opportunity.

The final player who I will suggest is Norichika Aoki. If you've frequented this blog over the last couple of months you know how big of an Aoki fan that I am. I think he is going to be an excellent fit for Kauffman Stadium and I expect him to be wroth 2.5 WAR or more in 2014. Aoki is only signed through this season, but I would be curious as to what he might ask for in the way of an extension.

The Royals have done a nice job in putting talent together in Kansas City. Hopefully, the Royals can keep this group together long enough to put the pieces in place around them to win big. At the very least we know that we'll have a top notch catcher putting on the mask for us day in and day out for the next six seasons.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

He Can Play Any Position He Wants

In an article for Fox Sports on Wednesday, Jeffrey Flanagan brought us this article regarding the possibility of Sal Perez playing some first base during the 2014 season. Of course, it only took until the second paragraph for a quote by our fearless leader to venture off into hyperbole:

"Sal really could, if he wanted to, play any position. He has that ability." - Dayton Moore

 This actually explains a lot. For instance, now we understand why the Royals DFA-ed Emilio Bonifacio. Why keep him on the bench when you have super-sub Salvy ready to make a diving catch in center, or turn a double play? This would also explain why we don't feel the need to carry a back up middle infielder at the beginning of the season. We've got Salvy ready to play short of Alcides Escobar goes down!

Of course, not too much farther into the article mohawk yielding Mike Moustakas dampens our hopes:

"I wouldn't say he'd be winning a Gold Glove (at first base) or anything. It's amazing. For as good of a defensive catcher as he is and how amazing he can catch pop-ups and make plays out there, he can't catch a pop-up to save his life at first base. It's crazy."

But wait! Should we really take Moustakas at his word? I mean Dayton Moore has zero incentive to lie to the fanbase, but Moustakas? What do you think is going to happen when he is posting a negative batting average in May and the Royals faithful get wind that Perez can play anywhere including the hot corner! Moustakas is clearly has some self interest involved here.

Seriously, any additional versatility is always welcomed. Perez is an awesome player and there is no sweeter contract in baseball than his. If giving Perez an occasional start at first base helps keep him healthy throughout the contract and the season, then by all means give him some starts at first base. Let's just not go overboard and pull Eric Hosmer or Billy Butler's bat out of the lineup 20 times this season just for the hell of it.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams

Sign and Trade for Kendrys Morales?

A sleeper team interested in Morales, as confirmed by a source, are the Royals - love that lineup with him in the middle of it !!
— Jim Duquette (@Jim_Duquette) January 2, 2014

Signing Morales would give the Royals the flexibility to trade B Butler for a pitcher too @MLBNetworkRadio
— Jim Duquette (@Jim_Duquette) January 2, 2014

MLB Network's Jim Duquette provided the Royals with these two tweets yesterday afternoon. At this point I have a hard time believe that all of the Billy Butler smoke is only that. We've heard so many variations of the sign X player to DH and trade Billy Butler rumor that I have a hard time doubting this sort of thing is actually being discussed.

I theorized as to why the Royals might be so eager to shop Billy Butler here and most if not all of these points remain true today. Whether or not a trade and signing would improve the ball club obviously hinges on the return that Bill Butler could bring in a trade. Personally, I don't see the return being enough to warrant such a move.

Also. worth consideration in these rumors is that they often involve signing a player who has a draft pick attached. Looking at the big picture, in order for the Royals to truly come out ahead in a Butler trade and FA signing, the return for Butler would both have to be more valuable than a 1st round pick while also accommodating for the difference between production from Butler and the FA signing. A return this strong is hard to envision.

Here is a look at how Butler and Morales compare in a few different projections systems:

• Steamer
• Butler: .293/.373/.467 with a .363 wOBA worth 2.4 WAR
• Morales: .275/.334/.467 with a .346 wOBA worth 1.6 WAR
• Oliver
• Butler: .288/.368/.419 with a .345 wOBA worth 1.1 WAR
• Morales: .278/.338/.461 with a .346 wOBA worth 1.6 WAR
• The Spitter (my own creation)
• Butler: .301/.377.455 with a .364 wOBA worth 2.7 WAR
• Morales: .293/.344/.481 with a .354 wOBA worth 2.2 WAR
• Averages of the above projections
• Butler: .294/.373/.447 with a .357 wOBA worth 2.1 WAR
• Morales: .282/.339/.470 with a .349 wOBA worth 1.8 WAR

Basically, on average Butler is slightly more valuable as a designated hitter than Kendrys Morales. Again the complication with this deal is that the Royals need to obtain enough value for Butler to account for the loss of a 1st round pick that would come with a Morales signing. Of course, no team is going to overspend for Butler to compensate the Royals for a draft pick that they would lose in a separate transaction. This creates a problem for Kansas City, who rightly should view these two moves as one in the same.

One way that the problem of a draft pick could be defeated would be a sign and trade with Seattle. The Mariners have long had interest in Billy Butler and even this offseason have been rumored to have kicked the tires on Bill the Thrill. If the Mariners signed Morales and then flipped him to Kansas City the Mariners could grab the DH they've long sought, while the Royals could bring in Morales without losing a draft pick. Of course, in order for this to make sense for Kansas City, another piece would also have to go to the Royals to make this work.

If it is true that Kansas City is seeking pitching in return for Butler, then we would have to assume that in order for this deal to make sense, Seattle would sign Morales and then trade him to Kansas City with a Major League ready starter for Billy Butler. A few names that could fit this mold would be Brandon Maurer, Erasmo Ramirez, or James Paxton. We know the Royals were hot and heavy on Paxton a year ago, but would they be able to return him in this sort of deal?

Complicating matters even further, the Mariners should also view this deal in the sense that they would be losing their right to a 1st round pick that could have been gained through compensation. Perhaps, the Mariners with their eyes set on 2014 would ignore this detail, but I have to think it would hurt the potential return that Kansas City could get for Butler.

Personally, I think this sort of route would be a creative solution by both the Mariners and Royals. I wouldn't consider this sort of move the Royals had to lose a draft pick. However, if the Royals can move Butler as they obviously are inclined to do, I'd prefer it to come in a situation like this. If a Morales plus Paxton or Ramirez deal was worked out, I think it is the kind of deal that would make sense for Kansas City. Ultimately, if none of this comes to fruition, the Royals will do just fine with Butler at DH.

Why Royals are Looking to Move Billy Butler

Also hearing #Royals haven't completely dismissed idea of dangling Billy Butler. They make sense as a Cruz destination if Butler gets moved
— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) December 10, 2013

So make that three times that the Royals have been rumored to be considering trading Billy Butler in favor of signing a free agent to serve as the 2014 designated hitter. First, we heard the Carlos Beltran rumors, then we heard about Kansas City's interest in Mark Trumbo. So we have to ask, why does is seem as though the Royals are so motivated to move Billy Butler?

1. Let's start with the most obvious reason; the Royals believe that these alternatives are upgrades. If the Royals truly believe that Beltran, Trumbo, Cruz, etc. are better offensively than Butler, than it would make sense to sign one and then deal Butler for another useful (for example, Nick Franklin of Seattle). The issue here becomes whether or not the aforementioned hitters are actually better offensively than Bill the Thrill.
2. Option number 2 could be that the Royals believe Butler has started downward on his career projection. Billy Butler is coming off his worst offensive season since his rookie campaign when he posted a .320 wOBA and a 90 wRC+. Perhaps the Royals brass read this article and believe that Butler's weight could lead to an early decline, thus they want to stay ahead of the curve by dealing him while he still has value. This leads me to my next point...
3. Maybe the Royals are frustrated by Butler's weight issues. After coming into camp in 2012 in excellent shape (by Billy Butler standards), Butler had a career year hitting .313/.373/.510. The Royals then spent the off-season gearing up for a playoff run and I'm sure were disappointed by the shape that Billy came to camp in for 2013. Butler obviously was carrying a few more pounds in 2013 than he was in 2012, and you have to wonder if his poor season was the result.
4. Finally and probably the largest factor in all of this is that while Butler's $8.5 million salary in 2014 seems very fair, the Royals might feel more conflicted about a $12.5 million option for 2015. As a result, they might be fearful that this off-season and the trading deadline will be their last opportunities to flip Butler. Obviously, the Royals expect to be in the race at the deadline, so they could just being proactive. By flipping Butler now and signing a free agent to DH, they could get a return for Butler, while also continuing to get DH production without having to either trade Butler in July or see him walk at the end of the season if his option is declined.

The Rays are a team that has done an excellent job of trading assets to make their window to win sustainable. They've shown that the opportune time to trade a player is when they have two years of control remaining. For Butler that point is now. 

Ultimately, whether or not Billy Butler should be traded hinges on your view of his 2013 season. If you believe it was the first drop off in a sharp aging curve for players his size, then it makes sense to stay ahead of the game and move him for a return while you have the chance. If you believe that 2013 was simply a down year and that he will rebound in 2014, then he is a bargain and a $12.5 million option in 2015 is a no brainer.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams

Confirmed: Will Smith for Norichika Aoki

Wow! Have the last 12 hours been exciting for us at Royal Revival. First off, what an excellent job by our blog team to get the Will Smith for Norichika Aoki information out there. As we have said before: at this blog we have a very humble amount of connections throughout the baseball industry. Our goal has never been to be an entity that "breaks" stories.

On numerous occasions in the past we have received information and often we are forced to drop subtle hints into our posts as opposed to blasting the information out on Twitter. We have also had an internal debate about we should even take the chance of sending out information when we don't have the means to confirm it with secondary sources. Ultimately, last night our source was confident enough to give us the courage to go ahead and share the information blatantly with the Royals Twitterverse.

Even when we dispersed the information we were careful in our wording. The last thing we wanted was to come off to the Royals Twitterverse as another Scott Swaim. We were then relieved this morning to see that the source was correct in regards to the trade. Following the moment of relief we were then elated to realize that we had just broken a legitimate Major Leaguer for Major Leaguer trade. We have been even more overwhelmed by the congratulatory response that we have received by the fantastic Royals blogosphere.

Don't expect this to become a regular occurrence for us. In our 4+ years as a blog, on one hand you can count the number of moves we have actually broken (a couple of draft picks, a trade and an international signing). Most of what we hear is just internal opinions of players and rumors. Again we normally are careful about the way we sprinkle this information into our posts when we have it.

Now let's get to the deal.

Personally, I think this move makes sense for Kansas City. Between this move and the Dexter Fowler rumors it seems obviously clear that one of the Royals offseason strategies was to deal from their relief corps in an attempt to bring in a right fielder. They have now succeeded in this endeavor.

Before I analyze the implications of this specific trade, I first would like to trace its lineage.

1. Norichika Aoki acquired for Will Smith. 
2. Will Smith acquired with Sean O'Sullivan for Alberto Callaspo
3. Alberto Callaspo acquired for Billy Buckner
4. Billy Buckner drafted in the 2nd Round of the 2004 Amateur Draft

Not too shabby. Thanks to some quality trades, the Royals are still managing to return value for a second round pick that was made nearly a decade ago. So far that pick has netted the Royals 4.2 fWAR with the opportunity to keep on giving. 

As for Aoki, he's an excellent fit for the Royals moving forward. One of my fears entering the offseason was that the Royals would allow history to repeat itself. In an attempt to find a power bat, they would sacrifice defense and on base percentage for home runs and rbi's (Mike Jacobs, cough). Dreams of Mark Trumbo in a Royals uniform danced through my head.

I even wondered if the Royals best course of action might be to go into 2014 with David Lough manning right. After all, in just 96 games he managed to post 2.4 fWAR. Unfortunately, I don't think the Royals trust Lough to post a similar mark in 2014. I would agree.

Lough is extremely BABIP dependent as an offensive player. In 2013, he walked 3% of the time and struck out 15.5% of the time. Both of these marks compare very unfavorably to Aoki who walked at an 8.2% clip and struck out at 5.9%, Based off these numbers I think there is a pretty safe bet that Aoki's offense will be better moving forward despite the difference in age. 

Lough's true value in 2013 stemmed from his stellar defense in right field. The issue is that we aren't dealing with an enormous sample size. Yes, Lough is a strong defender, but is he one of the best in baseball? I don't know that he is. Meanwhile, according to the Fielding Bible Aoki was the fifth most valuable defensive right fielder in baseball a season ago.

I don't know that Aoki provides the Royals with a huge upgrade from Lough's 2013 version. The problem simply was that it would have been very risky for the Royals to count on getting Lough's 2013 version again in 2014. Next season, Aoki will bring the consistency of a strong glove and strong on base percentage to the Royals. For a team with multiple wild cards, it is nice to have a position that they can count on for 2-3 WAR.

As for Smith, he will be missed but his loss won't hurt the Royals. Given his skill set, his value is higher for a team like the Brewers than it is for Kansas City. The Royals seemed to have already sentenced him to life as a reliever. For the Brewers he should get the opportunity to pitch in the back of their rotation. 

Smith is a good relief arm, but I applaud the Royals for dealing from a position of strength. I don't think this move immediately changes the fortunes for the Royals in 2014, but it does fill one of the voids that needed to be addressed this offseason.

One additional note, I've been asked several times how I believe this affects the Beltran talks. In my opinion it doesn't. I've heard that Glass is viewing Beltran as an opportunity to really squash his non-caring image. I think if the Royals do sign Beltran, it means that Butler is on the move. 

If anything this trade this protected the Royals from themselves and their own urge to regularly play Beltran in RF. The Butler vs Beltran debate is better suited for another post. In my opinion, this move does not remove Kansas City from the Beltran equation.

Thank you again to all those who have congratulated us on breaking this trade. We appreciate the support, but most of all we appreciate to talk Royals baseball with you every single day. 

Be sure to follow each of our writers @tipof_arrowhead @PadenBennett22 @Daniel_L_Ware and myself @Landon_Adams. 

Front Office Leak? Royals Interested in Fielder

About 4 hours ago Royals Review's Jack Marsh published this little bit of whatever you want to call it:

"My friend, whose father may or may not be in the Royals FO (He has oddly hinted at it before), suggested to me a very strange idea for the Royals off-season. He suggested that the Royals may end up targeting Prince Fielder and trading Billy Butler and Chris Getz for a second baseman, as well as addressing their pitching needs this off-season. I thought he was messing with me at first, but he seemed to act like this was some sort of official info from the Royals FO. When I told him that the Royals must really expect to contend in 2012 if this is the case, and that I wasn't surprised that the FO didn't let this bit of info out, he says: "Why would the Royals FO leak this? That would be a terrible publicity issue." I then asked him if he or if any of his friends or family members was connected to the FO, he said: "Possibly". So, Prince Fielder. If this is actually happening, then, whoa. "

I'm sure that a certain group of Royals fans will take this bit of information and run with it, but there are definitely a few holes in this story.

Primarily though if the Royals needed a second baseman why would they trade Billy Butler and Chris Getz for him? If you were going to acquire a second baseman for these guys they better be ELITE. Let me rephrase that if you were going to trade Butler for a second baseman he better be elite.

Chris Getz presence in this quotation only hurts the validity of the entire thing. This reminds me so much of classic message board material, if we trade the scrap with player x, we can get player y because we have to fill this position! Just stop.

If I squint I could see a scenario where the Royals use Butler as trade bait and then make a move for a new designated hitter. But if that was the case Butler would have to be moved for starting pitching. If he was moved for something else and Fielder was signed to DH, how would the Royals fill their biggest offseason need? There wouldn't be any much money left for free agents, and you will have already traded the most logical commodity.

I'm not saying that a series of moves like this is impossible. I'd also hope that the Royals are discussing scenarios such as this considering their cash position. However, this looks to much like someone fabricating a story, pretending to know someone to give it validity just to drum up some excitement.

In my next post I plan on talking about how my uncle, who may or may not be named Dayton Moore, mentioned to me that the Royals were toying with the idea of luring George Brett from retirement.

Pieces in Place

There are three spots in the batting order that traditionally have been viewed as having more importance than any of the others. Dayton Moore and company have on multiple occassions expressed their belief that if you can field a quality leadoff, three hole, and clean up hitter the team can consistentely provide quality offense.

For the first time in the Dayton Moore era we can safely say that the Royals have found answers for each of these three spots. But instead of a persuasive essay to convince you, let's just look at how the bottom of the 9th unfolded last night.

Leading off the bottom of the ninth for the Kansas City Royals number 4. Alex Gordon.

After falling down in the count 0-2 against hard throwing lefty Matt Thornton, Alex did what any good leadoff hitter would do in that situation, he battled back.

95 mph fastball. Foul (0-2)
81 mph slider. Ball (1-2)
96 mph fastball. Foul (1-2)
96 mph fastball. Foul (1-2)
83 mph slider. Ball (2-2)
97 mph fastball. Ball (3-2)

Finally on the ninth pitch of the at bat, Gordon found a pitch that he could do something with and ripped it in between the first and second basemen into right field.

There are two thngs that didn't happen in this at bat that should be noted. First, Gordon laid off the slider in. Up until this season the slider from left handed pitchers was Alex Gordon's biggest and most glaring weakness. The pitch seemed to consistently find the hole in his swing, when time and time again he would show the inability to lay off the pitch and would instead find nothing but air with his swing.

Second, Gordon's stayed agressive throughout the entire at bat. In the past Gordon would often get deep into at bats by taking a passive approach and then eventually this passiveness would do in him, in the form of a called strike three. Now, Gordon is always looking for the right pitch to hit and with his natural pitch recognition abilities is able to work counts, while also not being vulnerable for the called strike three.

Stepping to the Melky Cabrera.

One pitch, one perfect sacrifice. Gordon to second with one out.

Now batting the designated hitter, number 16 Billy Butler.

The White Sox made the smart tactical move and intentionally walked Butler. First and second, one out. Of course unlike in the past the White Sox were forced to pick their poison as opposed to walking the three hitter in order to get to an obviously weaker cleanup man. Finally that leads us to...

Up for the Royals, the first baseman, number 35, Eric Hosmer.

On the second pitch of the at bat, Eric Hosmer did what he does best when he laced a Matt Thornton fastball over left fielder Juan Pierre's head for a game winning double.

The Royals have the pieces in place in the three most critical spots of the lineup for at least the next two seasons. If we can extend Gordon, maybe even we can have those pieces in place for the next four seasons. Either way the Royals could finally have an offense that for the next several years will be a force in the American League Central.

Update: What we Need to See

At the All Star break I made a list of ten things that I would like to see in the second half of the season. Well we are about at the halfway point in between the break and the end of the season, so let's see how the Royals are stacking up with my goals.

1. A strong second half from Alex Gordon. In the first half Gordon posted a .299/.367/.483 line. So far in the second half he has a .290/.373/.497. His OPS is up from .850 in the first half to .870 in the second half, while his OPS+ is at 138 in the second half compared to 139 in the first half. In the end he has done plenty to warrant this goal receiving a CHECK for the time being.

2. Billy Butler finding his power stroke. Butler has 9 homers, 10 doubles and a slugging percentage of .541 in 37 games. CHECK

3. An efficient Danny Duffy Duffy is averaging just over 5 innings per start in the second half, which is right in line with his first half numbers. With Duffy reaching his season's innings limit soon I can't imagine this goal doing anything but remaining UNFULFILLED.

4. Eric Hosmer developing into a Superstar. Specifically I asked for Hosmer to post a line of at least .300/.350/.450 for the second half of the season. Instead his average has improved by two points from .268 to .270, while his on base percentage has jumped from .317 to .327. Not to mention his slugging percentage has actually dropped from .431 to .390. Definitely UNFULFILLED.

5. A good luck Felipe Paulino In the second half Paulino's K to walk has dropped from 3.75 to just 1.74. Due to his increase in walks his era has taken a hit. Whether or not he is having good luck or not this isn't what we wanted to see. UNFULFILLED.

6. Mike Moustakas driving the ball with power. Despite having a hot few days to finish the Boston series (just over twenty-four hours after I tweeted that I felt Mous might get things going soon based off of his recent swings) he still hasn't shown nearly enough for a check. UNFULFILLED

7. Luke Hochevar has to be better. A 3.55 era with a k to walk jumping to 2.40 qualifies here. CHECK

8. Alcides Escobar building off of his offensive outburst. He hasn't really built off his outburst, but he has been better than his wretched start. But a .250/.271/.339 line is hardly what I had in mind. UNFULFILLED.

9. Continued dominance from the bullpen. Aaron Crow has taken a step back. Greg Holland has continued to dominate. Tim Collins has been a little better. Joakim Soria still can't put his struggles behind him. Louis Coleman, despite his performance a couple of days ago continues to impress. This one is hard, but due to Crow's struggles I am marking it UNFULFILLED.

10. Mike Montgomery righting the ship He has had several decent starts, but at no point has he dominated like he did right before the All Star break. UNFULFILLED.

Overall, the Royals are three for ten on my Goal List for the second half. Not exactly what I was hoping for when I made this list of goals, all of which I felt were attainable.

B.J. Upton Rumor and Centerfield Thoughts

A very interesting nugget of trade rumor fell from the sky today when Joel Sherman stated that the Royals "have an interest in B.J. Upton with an eye on contending next year."

Centerfield has always seemed to be a position of critical importance for Dayton Moore (as it rightfully should, especially given Kauffman Stadium's huge alleys). He once traded for Coco Crisp. A season later he signed Scott Podsednik as a stop gap.

Obviously he knew Podsednik wouldn't be the guy once the Royals reached contention again so he flipped him at the deadline. This offseason though the Royals found themselves in a spot where they weren't necessarily expecting to contend. But if the right solution presented itself, the could acquire a piece that could be part of contention once it occurred.

When Justin Upton was rumored to be on the block, we heard that the Royals were one of the teams with an interest in acquiring the 5 tool star. Around the same time the Royals were also linked to the Florida Marlins' Cameron Maybin just before he was traded to San Diego. Both of these players were guys that would be under team control for multiple seasons, were once billed as top prospects, and could cover some serious ground in centerfield.

Eventually the Royals settled on what appeared to be another stop gap in Melky Cabrera. But Dayton Moore talked about how the Royals would also control him for 2012. Of course we thought it was just lip service. I can't blame Royals fans for not wanting to imagine Melky Cabrera as the team's centerfielder for Mission 2012, considering Melky's dreadful 2010 campaign.

A few days after signing the Melkman the Royals acquired another centerfielder in the Zack Greinke trade. Lorenzo Cain had long been coveted by the Royals brass. He nearly was acquired for Brian Bannister a long time ago before Bannister's career came to a screeching halt.

Finally it seemed that the Royals had found their man for the future. Now it was just a matter of Melky performing enough to net some decent value for him in a trade. At the latest we thought Cain would be assuming fulltime centerfield job on August 1st. Allowing him two full months of at bats in the American League.

But a funny thing happened, Melky tore it up and Dayton Moore began to talk about how he's reluctant to trade either of the Royals "stopgap" outfielders. Of course there are fans, myself included, that want to see Cain in the Majors. But now Melky seems to have positioned himself as part of the future. At least for next season. Unless the Royals are overwhelmed by an offer.

If Cain doesn't get called up to play everyday for the last two months of the season. It will be frustrating. But it won't be a tragedy. It isn't as though Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur are one year guys stealing at bats. They could both be a part of the next winning Royals team.

If the Royals believe in Mission 2012 they should go with the best team they can field. Perhaps it isn't the wisest move to simply get rid of an above average Major League outfielder in favor for a guy never considered elite. Even if that guy is tearing it up in Omaha (at a park that highly favors right handed hitters).

But now we hear this rumor regarding B.J. Upton. Let me begin by saying that I love this rumor in principle. I love that the Royals would be willing to make a move to acquire a Big League piece that it feels would push them over the top. However, I don't believe that Upton is the guy.

Of course the ceiling on Upton is limitless. But we shouldn't forget the basics. First, Upton is only under team control through 2012. He has a career triple slash of .256/.341/.411. But over the last three seasons his slash is down to .239/.318/.403. Given the decline in offense production league wide his is basically an average offensive contributor.

Of course there is also the belief that Upton is a top flight baserunner and defender. For his career he has at times shown that this is the truth. But according to fangraphs both his baserunning and fielding have contributed negative values for his WAR in 2011.

Upton is currently having his worst season as a professional and it seems strange that Sternberg and Friedman would be willing to sell so low on such a potentially valuable commity. Given how much respect I have for the Rays front office I don't believe they are willing to sell low and it is for this reason that I believe the Royals shouldn't take the risk.

The Rays are rumored to be asking for top pitching prospects in return for Upton. The Royals definitely have the Minor league talent and depth to pull off a deal, but I don't think this is the player the Royals should take the risk on. Especially when you consider that pitching is the Royals biggest need moving forward.

I would rather the Royals keep Cabrera in centefield and hang on to the prospects. I would rather see Cain finally get the everyday job if the Royals can get a fair return for either Cabrera or Francoeur.

But if the Royals are interested in B.J. Upton would it be safe to assume that they would also kick the tires on Hunter Pence or Colby Rasmus. Both have been discussed in rumors this July. Given Dayton Moore's desire to upgrade center I can't imagine that he would at least make a courtesy call on the subject.

Pence of course would be a huge net for the Royals. He would be under team control for three more seasons and could be the stud the Royals need at the top of their lineup.

Rasmus could be a Royal through 2014. While he has posted similar numbers as B.J. Upton he would seem to be more appealing giving his controlled years and age. He is having a down year and has never seemed to truly belong in St. Louis.

I want to emphasize that I don't think Upton would be a bad pickup. On the contrary his reward is so great that the move would probably get many Royals fans giddy with excitement for 2012. But this is primarily because Upton is so overrated considering what he has actually done as a Big Leaguer. But I do beleive that teams value prospects a bit too much in the current state of the game.

I'd love for the Royals to make a move for a premier Big Leaguer. We have the pieces to do it. If the Rays are willing to sell low I wouldn't fault the Royals for pouncing. But if the Rays want multiple top prospects, the Royals would be best served to look elsewhere.

Quite frankly the Rays front office is too good for me to think that the Royals could get Upton at fair value for what he is right now. If the Royals acquire him it will likely be because they paid for upside. Upside that looks like it may never be reached.

Add On I have just been informed that ESPN Insider reports the Royals want Upton and pitching from Rays. This is interesting because you would think that Upton would be the only thing going to Kansas City in a trade. Perhaps this means that the Royals are offering a big league piece as well. Perhaps Joakim Soria or Billy Butler? Both would be great fits in Tampa.

What We Need to See

The second half of the season begins tonight, let's take a look at things we want to see in order to have confidence in this team having a shot at contention in 2012.

1. A strong second half from Alex Gordon. Obviously Gordon's first half has been the brightest spot for the 2011 Royals to date. For Royals fans and bloggers like myself who have defended Gordon and blamed his late blooming on injuries and bad luck, this season has come as a huge relief. But so far we have played just over half of the games on the 2011 slate. Gordon has come a long way, but a collapse in the second half could cause a similar collapse in fan's dreams for 2012.

2. Billy Butler finding his power stroke. Despite Butler walks being virtually unparralled by any other Royal in the last two decades, posting an on base percentage near .400. Butler has been a big disappointment for Royals fans in 2011. Whether or not this is fair is another discussion, but I think we can all agree that if Butler could start slugging the ball like he did in 2009, or even just like he did in 2010, we would be much more confident in his ability to be a middle of the order hitter.

3. An efficient Danny Duffy could go a long way. I'm not asking for Duffy to become a dominant pitcher in the second half (though if he did it would definitely go a long way), but if he can just be more efficient in controlling the strike zone and his pitch counts. This would allow him to go deeper in the games, reducing the strain on the bullpen and allow him to pound the strike zone even more with his great stuff.

4. Eric Hosmer developing into a Superstar. It may be unfair to ask so much of Hosmer, but in my opinion he warrants it. It takes times for hitters to develope and normally they don't fully hit their stride until year two or three. But I truly believe that Hosmer is going to be ahead of the curve. If Hosmer can continue to improve his numbers in the second half, maybe just post around a .300/.350/.450 line in the second half then Royals fans are going to be really excited about the first base position when they look toward 2012.

5. A good luck Felipe Paulino or really even just a not unlucky Felipe Paulino. Throughout his career Paulino has consistently posted head scratching era numbers considering the strength of his peripherals. He has knockout stuff and a dynamite fastball. His body type suggests he can handle a big time workload, so if Paulino's luck pendulum can swing in the opposite direction or even hang straight down the Royals will have found one/fifth of their rotation through 2014 for nothing at all.

6. Mike Moustakas driving the ball with power. Mike Moustakas hasn't looked overwhelmed in his time in the Majors and he has put together solid at bats on a consistent basis. However, he hasn't been the player that those of us that have seen in the minors have come to love. He doesn't appear to be swinging as hard and his power has been virtually non existent. A strong second half from Moustakas could be just what Royals fans need to really buy into Mission 2012.

7. Luke Hochevar has to be better. Luke Hochevar is beginning to transition into Kyle Davies territory and if he can't put together a strong second half then I wouldn't have any problem with the Royals trading him in the offseason even though it would mean selling low.

8. Alcides Escobar building off of his offensive outburst. I'm not going to ask for Escobar to become a .300 hitter (though I think it is possible). But if he can get his average up into the high .260s by the end of the year, Royals fans will recognize the value that he brings with his glove and an average bat for the position.

9. Continued dominance from the bullpen. The bullpen has a huge bright spot for the 2011 Royals and the best news is that every single pitcher is under team control through at least 2014. If this unit can continue to find success and dare I say even improve, it could be a tremendous asset for the Royals moving forward.

10. Mike Montgomery righting the ship and even finding time in Kansas City this summer could be huge for Royals fans expectations for 2012. The glaring weakness of this team is the rotation. The team needs a frontline starter. Montgomery has that potential and if he can continue to dominate like he did in his last two starters Royals fans should really start to have a lot of confidence for 2012.

Halfway There. Living on a Prayer.

Just like that we are halfway through the Major League baseball season. Of course most people split the season into two halfs around the all star break, but for the purpose of this post we are going to use the 81 game mark. The reason? All we have to do is multiply by two and we can see some projected totals for Royal players.

Let's start with the catchers. Brayan Pena is on pace for 230 at bats this season, a number that would shatter his previous career high of 165. Of course that number could really jump should the Royals trade Matt Traenor and allow Pena to catch full time in the second half of the season.

Oh and speaking of Matt Treanor. Have you noticed how much he is walking this year? He is currently on pace for 58 walks, while playing in 104 games. He also has an on base percentage of .354. Those 58 walks would be a career high, in fact he has already set a career high when he walked for the 23rd time this season. Matt has also never played more than eighty-two games in a single season.

Over at first base Kila Ka'aihue likely won't be given an opportunity to double his numbers, and since Eric Hosmer didn't play the entire first half it renders this drill pointless for him as well so we'll move on to the "other firstbaseman" Billy Butler.

Butler is currently on pace for some monster numbers for a middle of the order hitter with 12 home runs and 68 rbi. These would be his lowest totals since his rookie season when he posted 11-55 in just 124 games. I should also add that he is on pace for 92 walks which would be the highest single season mark for a Royal since 1989 when Kevin Seitzer walked 102 times and it would shatter the previous Dayton Moore era record of 69 that Butler set in 2010.

Of course over at second base Chris Getz hot streak has really strengthened his projected numbers for the year. Getz who is batting .343 in his last 19 games is now on pace to get 128 hits which would be a career high, while stealing 28 bases which would also be a career high.

When we shift to the other side of the bag we find another middle infielder whose recent hot streak has moved his numbers out of abysmal territory. Alcides Escobar is also on pace for a few career highs: hits (140), doubles (24), rbi (42), and steals (24).

Wilson Betemit playing in part time duty once again, is on pace for 30 doubles and the highest single season WAR of his career at 1.8. His home run power has taken a severe drop and he is only on pace for 4 home runs this season, 9 less than last season despite being on pace for 100 more at bats.

Melky Cabrera is having more pop in his bat this season than any other and if he continues at his current pace will post career highs in home runs (18), doubles (36), and slugging percentage (.428). Despite playing the worst defense of his career he is still on pace for a career high 2.2 WAR.

Jeff Francoeur of course is doing exactly what Dayton Moore brough him in to do. Currently he projects to hit 22 homers, the highest total since his sophomore season when he hit 29. He also figures to finish with 94 rbis and 36 doubles. Not to mention that he would finish with a career high 26 steals. his previous high was 8. He is also on pace for 38 walks, just 5 more than his 162 game average.

Mitch Maier has starred in bench duty. He is having the best season of his career based on the stats that start with a decimal point. However, he is also only on pace for 86 at bats which would be the lowest figure for his career when you remove his 13 at bat 2006 season.

Finally we get to Alex Gordon whose season is easily the best of his career. He is on pace for 186 hits and while he has totally change his approach at the plate, he is also on pace to tie his career high in walks at 66. He also projects to hit 48 doubles, 8 triples, 18 home runs, and score 90 runs. All of these would be career highs. He projects to post a 5.6 WAR.

On the pitching side of things it has been much more grim. Hochevar may be having the best season of his young career. He is on pace to wipe out his previous 0.5 WAR when he finished the year with a 0.6 mark. He is on pace to post career high marks in walks and home runs allowed, while only tying his career high mark in strikeouts. He has been an innings eater (on pace for 210 innings) which is something that shouldn't be taken forgranted with the young pen.

Jeff Francis's era of 4.79 is in line with his career figure of 4.77. He is on pace to eclipse the 200 inning mark for the first time since 2007. But his strikeouts per 9 innings are down to 4.0, from his previous career low of 5.8.

Kyle Davies continues to epically suck. While Bruce Chen continues to drink from the fountain of youth. His 3.46 era would be his best mark since 2004 when he pitched in 8 games for the Baltimore Orioles.

The bullpen is young and has been very strong. But since most are rookies there isn't much to compare their numbers too, exceopt for the closer Joakim Soria. Soria having the worst year of his career. He is on pace to give up the most home runs and walks in his career while recording the fewest strikeouts despite pitching in the most innings since his rookie season.

As a team the Royals are on pace for 66 wins which would place them right in between the 2009 and 2010 win totals. 696 runs scored the most since Dayton Moore's first full season when the team scored 706 times. Finaly they are on pace for 794 runs allowed the lowest since 2008 when the team gave up 781.

Poll Results are in:

On the same day that Sean O'Sullivan and the Kansas City pen carved up the Mariners for a shutout the poll for Royals home run leader came to a close. Here is how you voted:

• Billy Butler- 9 votes (18%)


• Jeff Francoeur- 4 votes (7%)


• Alex Gordon- 10 votes (18)


• Kila Ka'aihue- 29 votes (54%)


• Mike Moustakas- 1 vote (1%)


• There were no votes for any other players.

Right now Jeff Francoeur, Billy Butler, and Matt Traenor lead the Royals with 2 home runs. This would put each of them on pace to hit 23 for the season. Behind them Mike Aviles, Wilson Betemit, Melky Cabrerra, Alex Gordon, and Kila Ka'aihue all have 1, which is a pace of 12 for the season.

Be sure to vote in the new poll regarding possible contention and the handling of prospects!

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