Aaron Crow's Place on the Bullpen Totem Pole

This offseason, it seemed obvious that the Royals would attempt to deal from their bullpen depth to acquire some other pieces. Yet in the end the only reliever moved wound up being left hander Will Smith in exchange for Milwaukee outfielder Norichika Aoki. Throughout the offseason I considered who could be the odd man out in the bullpen tree. The most desirable arm to move for Kansas City likely was Wade Davis, but after Davis I wondered if former Missouri Tiger Aaron Crow might offer the best blend of appeal for other teams and lack of a role on the current roster.

Crow, who earned an All-Star game appearance in 2011, has been a very solid option for Kansas City for the last three seasons posting a 3.19 ERA. Since Crow's All-Star appearance, his rate stats have quietly eroded a bit. During that same time period, Crow has seen his role shrunk as well. On Thursday, Fox Sports' Jeffrey Flanagan asked Crow about his diminished role and here is what Crow had to say:

"It's not really all that important (what inning you pitch) at the end of the day. It doesn't matter if you pitch the sixth inning or the eighth inning, just as long as the team is doing well. I don't care if you come in and face just one batter - just as long as you're helping the team win."

If you want to read the full article, you can check it out here.

There is a general thought process among Royals fans that Aaron Crow is an excellent reliever. However, last season he was basically replacement level. According to Fangraphs he was actually worth -0.1 WAR and according to Baseball-Reference he was worth just 0.3 WAR. Over his career he's been worth just 1.3 fWAR and 2.7 bWAR over three seasons. Despite all this, he has already earned $4.68 million in salary from the Royals and will be paid $1.475 million in 2014.

Crow has excellent stuff. His whippy arm action plays well in a relief role and his mid-90s fastball and slider make for some strikeouts where the hitter just looks silly. When you couple this with his pedigree, plus his three seasons of control he would be a valuable asset for a lot of teams. For the Royals though, he is probably the 5th or 6th best reliever on the staff. Given all this I would maintain that he is likely more valuable as a trade piece than as a member of the Royals bullpen.

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Another Course of Action

I'm about to present an argument for one course of action that the Royals could take. I'm not necessarily advocating that it is the ideal course of action, merely, that it is something I've been mulling over in my head and so I wanted to get it on to the site. This will not be a popular suggestion.

The Royals should not make a major trade for a starting pitcher.

As of today, here is where the Royals rotation stands entering the 2013 season:

1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. Ervin Santana
3. Bruce Chen
4. Luke Hochevar
5. Luis Mendoza
6. Jake Odorizzi
7. Will Smith

Step one in this course of action is to non-tender Luke Hochevar (as should be the next step in any course of action the Royals take). I would then advocate that the Royals bargain shop for a starter on a one year deal. If you can wind up with a guy like Shaun Marcum, Dan Haren, or Brandon McCarthy that is fantastic and they absolutely could fit into the rotation suggested in this post. However, let's go ahead and operate on the assumption the Royals don't acquire any other starters. 

What the Royals could do instead of trading a starter, is to grant either Kelvin Herrera or Aaron Crow the opportunity to start in 2013. Obviously, both of these pitchers have question marks that will likely deter the Royals from this route. Herrera has already lost nearly two seasons due to injuries. Aaron Crow was ineffective as a starter in his first professional season. 

However, the incentive here is clear. Either of these starters, if they could transition successfully, could be a #2 or at least a #3 starter. Herrera has more front end stuff, but Crow has shown that he can handle the workload that a starter would require. If the Royals have a preference between the two, they could chose before camp. If the Royals aren't sure which would be a better fit, you let the two of them battle it out for the final rotation spot. 

If the Royals are ever going to try either of these guys in the rotation 2013 is absolutely the best year to do it. As bad as we all want the Royals to contend in 2013, they still aren't expected to do so. If the Royals were expected to contend, a much safer solution would be in order. Because the Royals have to bridge a large gap, it is an ideal time to take a chance on a high reward option. Right now, we are hearing a lot about the Royals talking trades for a controllable, young, front end starter. The possibility exist that you already have one in your organization. Now might just be the time to find out. 

There is another reason why 2013 makes sense to take this chance. Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino will likely both be on the D.L. through at least June. However more than likely, the Royals will at some point want to squeeze one or both of them back into the rotation. In addition to providing the Royals an exit should the experiment fail, this also allows the Royals an ability to cap the innings increase of the bullpen convert should they chose to do so. 

Like I said, I am not necessarily advocating this course of action. I am merely suggesting an alternative if you, like me, are a bit nervous about the idea of Dayton Moore trading away one of the Royals core hitters to a team like the Rays, Mariners, or Athletics.

It is said that fortune favors the bold. However, I don't think we should approach the offseason with the foregone conclusion that the only solution to the Royals is a major trade. In fact, it should be pointed out that there is no riskier route than a major trade. When you are a annually around a 70 win team, keeping status quo isn't going to push you into contention. Just keep in mind that there might be another creative play the Royals could make, while keeping their core hitters intact.

Looking Ahead: The Rotation

Unfortunately, we are 40 games into the season and the Royals sit just 16-24. It doesn't take an astute observer to point out that the major flaw of this team and largest hindrance on future optimism has been its rotation. So what are we looking at to open 2013? Can the rotation at least be average? 

Potential Rotation Members Returning:

• Luke Hochevar
• Felipe Paulino
• Bruce Chen
• Danny Duffy* (Won't be back until June at the earliest.)

If you are still a believer in Hochevar, the Royals are two starters short, if not Kansas City will need to fill three spots. What the Royals do with these two openings will be critical, if they play it safe as they did last off season, an average rotation is likely a pipe dream. But let's keep in mind that the Royals may not necessarily have to fill all the open spots via free agency. So who could be ready from the farm?

• Mike Montgomery- With 35 starts in AAA, it'll just take a few dominate starts for Montgomery to break into the majors. Considering he has about 20 starts left in this season, he'll likely be ready to bust in next season. (We hope.)
• Will Smith- People tend to forget about Smith, because the upside just isn't as high for the former Angels farmhand. But the Royals feel very strongly that he has a near Major League arm and that eventually he could hold down a spot at the back of the rotation.
• Jake Odorizzi- Having proven himself in AA, he has the remainder of the summer to do the same in Omaha. He may not open in Kansas City next season, but there's a good chance he'll be in the mix to do so. 

(I've chosen not to include either Chris Dwyer or John Lamb because both have yet to prove themselves in AA. They could easily break into the Majors at some point in 2013, but we're looking at what the rotation could be to open the season.)

There's another guy that should be given the chance to start in 2013. The Royals paid a lot of lip service to Aaron Crow in the rotation entering 2012, but when Joakim Soria lost his season to Tommy John, the Royals felt Crow was needed to much in the bullpen. Considering the way the rotation has gone thus far, come mid-August Crow absolutely should be given the opportunity to start every fifth day. If Crow pitches even average in that month and a half, he should be given a rotation spot entering 2013.

So there's seven possibilities heading into 2013. If two out of Montgomery, Odorizzi, and Crow show they are ready to hold down rotation spots the Royals rotation will already receive an upgrade. Sure there would be some growing pains, but the talent and upside would be there. 

I also find it very unlikely that the front office would keep their hands out of free agency should the rotation continue to be as bad as it has been thus far. Fortunately for Kansas City, the upcoming free agent crop appears to be strong on the pitching side of things. The most intriguing name of the group for most of us is Zack Greinke. Personally, I expect him to be priced way out of the Royals range.

Another name to keep an eye on would be Kansas City's own and Missouri State prospect Shaun Marcum. If the Royals were able to net any hometown discount at all he would make a ton of sense. In seven seasons he boasts a career 3.74 ERA with a career K/BB of 2.64. 

Obviously, the road bump that Mike Montgomery has encountered is nerve racking. Clearly, the current rotation is a cause for concern. However, Chen continues to defy odds and it isn't hard to imagine him at least being a serviceable back end guy in 2013. Paulino could be the best starter on the roster. Personally, I could see him as a 2 or 3 on an average staff. If the Royals go get a free agent the Royals will have a make shift 1 (albeit most likely not an ace).

Finally, out of Luke Hochevar, Mike Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi, Nate Adcock and Will Smith, you need two to be the 3 and 4 starters. Obviously, several of the aforementioned guys offer more upside than the Royals have had in past rotations. Oh, and don't forget Danny Duffy will be back in June and John Lamb, Chris Dwyer, Jason Adam, and Yordano Ventura could be knocking at the door soon after. 

The Royals don't necessarily need to trade for a front end starter. The possibility exists that the rotation could be stronger next year than this year simply by giving the right guys the opportunity. I'd prefer to see the Royals take a more aggressive approach. There are free agents that would make sense, that could round out the front end. There's no reason to sell out for the ace, if the Kansas City's in contention next July, maybe then it will be time.

Crow's 2012 Workload

“Realistically, it would be tough for him to make 32 starts, but he could make 10 starts and go to the pen. He could make five starts and go to the pen. He could open in the pen and make 10 starts later or 15 starts. I don’t know.” - Manager Ned Yost on Aaron Crow

I like that the organization is open to transitioning Crow to the rotation from the big league bullpen, should he not break camp as a starter. But this quotation also leads me to believe that the Royals will likely avoid sending Crow to Omaha, in order to keep his arm in the pen. In my opinion this could be a mistake.

If the Royals are serious in wanting to transition Crow to starter, he'll very likely need more seasoning before he is Major League ready. As we remember, Crow wasn't exactly a dominant force during his one minor league season. He struggled with command, and had difficulty avoiding the big inning. I watched Crow first hand for most of the 2010 season, and though I'm no scout, his stuff was impressive throughout the year.

Crow may very well be best suited in the bullpen, but there is front end upside if he can successfully transition to the rotation. The Royals are correct to at least giving him a shot. But if the Royals expect Crow to reach that upside without more seasoning, I fear they are severely mistaken.

The Royals have plenty of options for the bullpen heading into camp. They have enough options for the rotation as well. If Crow doesn't dominate in camp, but does show improved command, open him in Omaha's rotation. Allow him to build himself back up as a starter and log the innings necessary to develop.

I know he may only be able to pitch 100-120 innings this season and the Royals rightly want those to come in the Majors. However, sometimes you have to take a step back in order to take two steps forward. That might be the situation for Aaron Crow and the Royals in 2012.

Pull the Trigger

By now Royals fans are well aware the free agent starter Roy Oswalt is targeting a one year deal at around $8 million. But now there are also rumblings that fellow free agent starter Edwin Jackson has lowered his asking price from 5 years, 65 million all the way down to a one year deal. Let me make this perfectly clear, if the Royals aren't involved on these two starters and they wind up signing for one year deals elsewhere, the Royals will have missed a huge opportunity.

The rumors have been clear that Oswalt is looking to land a one year deal with a contender, something I can totally understand. However, when it comes to professional athletes, I've learned that there is always a dollar figure that can buy them out of their notions of going to a winner, or staying near home, or whatever else for that matter. Not to mention if Oswalt came to Kansas City, I'm sure the top reason he'd give to the press is that the Royals are on the verge of contention and that he wants to be a part of something special in Kansas City.

The Royals have the money to spend in their current budget. The team is right around $60 million for 2012, after being over $70 million in both 2009 and 2010. In fact, there was a time when the Royals payroll was closer to $80 million than 70. Last year the payroll was in the $35-40 million dollar range. So it isn't unrealistic at all to assume that the Royals possess the flexibility that would be necessary to add another starter into the budget. The Royals would likely have to pay more than 'a contender' to lure Oswalt or Jackson in, but ultimately money talks.

In fact, Dayton Moore himself has even stated that the team was looking into acquiring another starter, before ultimately deciding to take the prudent route and saving the final rotation spot for one of the kids. If you believe that the fifth rotation spot belongs to Duffy, Crow, Teaford, or Montgomery, that's fine. But personally I think all of the aforementioned pitchers could use more time in Omaha honing their craft.

The Rays have possibly the best rotation depth in all of baseball. In 2012, there will likely be two starters that don't make the Rays rotation that would be one of the best starters on the Royals roster.Look at the manner in which the Rays have developed their starters. The Rays develop their starters with patience.

There is a belief that pitchers have to make adjustments at the next level. Many Royals fans are of the opinion that Danny Duffy has learned all that he can in Omaha. They would argue that sending him to Omaha to begin 2012 would serve no purpose developmentally. They may be right, I am no expert in pitcher development. However, I would point to the Rays model, which has been pretty effective over the past few seasons. Look how many innings some of their prospects threw in the upper levels, before becoming fixtures in the rotation:

David Price: 109.1

Matt Moore: 155

Matt Garza: 183.1

Alex Cobb: 187

Jeremy Hellickson: 307

Alexander Torres: 323.2

Jeff Niemann: 361

Wade Davis: 399.1

Of course Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, and Alexander Torres could all add more innings in 2012. Also of note is that the starter with the least amount of innings in the upper levels is David Price, who is probably the most advanced college arm ever outside of Stephen Strasburg (Strasburg by the way threw just 66.1 innings in the upper levels). 

Here's a look at where the Royals arms stand in the upper level inning count:

John Lamb: 68

Jake Odorizzi: 68.2

Danny Duffy: 81.2

Aaron Crow: 119.1

Chris Dwyer: 159

Mike Montgomery: 210.1

Everett Teaford: 219.2

The Rays are arguably the best team in professional baseball right now in terms of developing starting pitchers and keeping those pitchers healthy at the Major League level. Thanks to a patient approach that waits for starters to force their hand they have successfully developed a deep starting rotation. As a result of this rotation they have been able to compete in the toughest division in baseball, despite financial restrictions that their rivals don't face.

Like I have said, I'm not an expert on prospect development. I am merely looking at what the best have done and wondering aloud if the Royals would be wise to emulate it. As it stands there is one open rotation spot for 2012. The rotation at this point consists of Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, and Felipe Paulino. If the Royals were to add another starter on a one year deal the benefit could be twofold. 

First, the Royals would strengthen their rotation in the short run. But also Danny Duffy, Aaron Crow, and Mike Montgomery would all be allowed to return to Omaha, where they could continue to develop. At some point a rotation spot will open up as the result of injury or poor performance and then the most deserving of three can get the promotion to Kansas City. Later another spot will open up and perhaps even another. By Opening Day 2013, there will likely be plenty of room in the rotation for all three should they deserve it and the rotation at that point could be a force.

There are also service time benefits of a plan such as this. If Aaron Crow spends some time in the minors his free agency will be pushed back a season. If Mike Montgomery comes up at mid season his free agency and super two status could both be pushed back a season. If Danny Duffy spends a few weeks in Omaha, his Super Two status could be pushed back by a season. 

By adding another starter now the Royals could save themselves millions of dollars in arbitration and even gain some extra team control. I'm sure the Royals are aware of all of this and considering Luis Mendoza is out of options they may have a plan for starting him in the rotation to reach these benefits. Mendoza isn't a bad depth player, but if the Royals are serious about contending he won't open the season in the rotation.

There are two very talented starting pitchers that could be available on one year deals. The benefits of signing one of them could reach far beyond improving the Opening Day rotation. If the division is going to be as tight  as I believe it will be, the addition of either starter could propel the Royals into a tighter race. More wins means staying in contention longer. Staying in contention longer means more ticket sales. More ticket sales mean more money. 

Even if the Royals fall out of contention, both Oswalt and Jackson would be hot commodities on the trade market in July. If they perform as expected they would both be worth a decent prospect in return, and will have already served their value in allowing the Royals pitching prospects more development time. 

If I was sure that the Royals would take their extra financial flexibility in 2012, place it in a bank account and allow it to accumulate interest until Hosmer and Moustakas could be extended I would consider that route. But I can't be sure that the funds would roll over in such a manner. However, if signing Edwin Jackson or Roy Oswalt paid out all of the potential dividends the financial hit it would take to sign them would be minute. 

There is obviously risk involved, but the Royals most glaring weakness is starting pitching and right now there are two starters that could upgrade this staff. If the Royals can grab one of them on a one year deal, well I think I've been pretty clear on potential rewards of that. If the Royals can't afford them, well shame on the Royals for jumping the gun and dishing out $4.5 million to Bruce Chen and another $2 million to Yunieskey Betancourt.

It may not be realistic to expect the Royals to make anymore major moves this offseason. But it isn't unrealistic to believe that they could afford to do so. There's an opportunity, I just hope the Royals pounce. Pull the trigger and let's make the AL Central a two horse race in 2012.

Much Better than .500

In the Kansas City Star this morning we learned that manager Ned Yost believes this team will be much better than .500 in 2012.

"Yost points to upgrades in the rotation (acquiring Jonathan Sanchez in a trade with San Francisco and retaining Bruce Chen) and the bullpen (signing two-time All-Star Jonathan Broxton) as further reasons to expect major on-field improvement." -Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star

Just as some food for thought here's a few table displaying some various WARs values of last year's players and this years. I chose to use Wood in the first set, because if Crow were to stay in the rotation, I believe Wood would be the most likely to lose his roster spot.

For the weighted averages, I applied a 50% weight to last season, 30% to 2010, and 20% for 2009. Obviously some players didn't play in each of these season so they were assigned a value of 0.



For this set I used Aaron Crow. I believe that if the Royals do transition him to the rotation, it will likely result in a step back, meaning he would spend time in Omaha developing as a starter. This would mean Broxton would take Crow's spot on the big league team for the time being.



I think the Royals are definitely buying potential here. The potential in future success for the players on the right are likely higher than the players on the left. However, as you can see these moves definitely don't make the Royals obviously better for 2012 and there is the possibility that by investing into potential the Royals could actually take a step back this upcoming season.

Royals resign Chen

SI's Jon Heyman reports that the Royals have signed Bruce Chen to a two year deal worth $9 million guaranteed, with up to $1 million in incentives and up to $1 million in roster bonuses. I have heard that the report is premature, but I tend to believe it is probably correct.

I have several issues with this signing, the first of which is time. Why are the Royals making this deal with so many pitchers still on the market? Why not wait and see if the market forces Chen or another option to take less than they were hoping for. If the Royals were afraid that Chen would be signed soon, oh well, take the pick and smile.

To me your evaluation of Chen as a pitcher hinges on what type of fan you are. Do you value ERA? Or do you evaluate Chen based on his xFIP? Personally I think that when reviewing a season xFIP doesn't really matter, because luck is part of the game. However, when using one season's statistics to look toward the future I believe the more advanced statistics are way better than the crudeness of ERA.

For the past two seasons Chen has been the top starter to wear a Royals uniform. In that time he has also developed a cult following thanks to the work of Will Ferrell and company. For some fans this alone seems to raise Chen's value, but I digress.

Now in the KC Star Dayton Moore suggested that the club would still like to add two starters. If the team did this they would have a rotation of Hochevar, Sanchez, Chen, Paulino and the free agent. Meaning Duffy could begin the season in Omaha to ensure he misses Super Two and to allow him to develop just a little bit more. Eventually one of those starters falters or gets hurt and luckily you have depth.

I am all for depth., but guaranteeing $9 million to Chen doesn't seem like a depth move. It seems like a scared move. As in the Royals are scared they will miss out on other targets and won't have the security of Bruce Chen once the time comes.

Personally, Chen was my final back up plan. If all else failed, I would have loved to see the Royals bring back Chen. Especially if the deal could have been for one year, with some sort of option for the second. I would have been all for that deal. But promising Bruce Chen two years when there are so many other options out there seems silly to me.

Even if you don't believe that the Royals have other options on the free agent market, surely you can admit that there are several internal options that could be just as strong as Chen (Montgomery, Crow, Teaford). If you look to the 2013 season you may be able to throw several more starters into the mix as better options.

For me Jeff Francis would have been a better option to return to Kansas City next season. I see 2011, as similar seasons between Francis and Chen. Both are projected to post a 4.22 ERA by Bill James in 2012. But James also projects Francis to post a significantly stronger FIP, a prediction that would strongly resemble what happened in 2011, when Francis despite having an ERA nearly a full run higher than Francis, showed stronger peripheral numbers.

In the end, with the pitchers being so similar, I would have preferred Francis for the simple fact that Chen leaving would bring the Royals a draft pick. Surely that counts for something right? To me if the pitchers pitch the same in 2012 as they did 2011, it is a no brainer that Francis and a draft pick would be the more appealing option.

At this point we can't know what Francis will sign for, but early indications are that he will receive a similar deal for 2012 that he got for 2011. If Francis could have been had on a one year offer this becomes an even more obvious decision.

There are some pitchers that are able to consistently outperform their FIP, and I do think that Chen could be one of those guys. For the past two seasons he has carved out a Jamie Moyer kind of career. I wouldn't be shocked if Chen continued this trend. But personally I'm not confident enough in these odds to wager a two year, $9 million commitment.

There is also the issue of durability. For a long time you could pencil Jamie Moyer for right around 200 innings pitched. Even in 2009, when this figure dropped to 162, it would have been the second highest of Bruce Chen's career. If I knew I could count on Chen to log 200 innings I'd feel much more optimistic about this deal. But instead Chen hasn't made over 25 starts in either of the last two seasons.

Look around the Royals' rotation. Who is eating innings and protecting the bullpen? Hochevar has proven to be a bit injury prone over the last couple of seasons. Paulino has never logged over 140 Big League innings. Jonathan Sanchez battled injuries for most of 2011. Danny Duffy is a young arm that probably isn't ready to jump over 200 innings.

Let's hope Dayton Moore is serious when he talks about bringing in another starter, because for in my opinion this team will definitely need it at some point. But if you do bring in another free agent starter you basically assure yourself that Aaron Crow and/or Everett Teaford won't be shifting to the rotation and that Mike Montgomery won't be winning a spot in the rotation with a spectacular Spring.

The Royals rotation is probably stronger today than it was yesterday. But is it stronger than it was in 2011? Not in my opinion. Chen outperformed his peripherals, given this and his position on the aging curve regression should be expected. If he regresses at all the Royals rotation doesn't improve because of this deal.

Ultimately it isn't a horrible deal, but it isn't suave either. It is a deal that makes me feel uneasy. I hope that Chen continues to find the fountain of youth and can continue to defy the numbers and post quality seasons. If he does it is hard to argue with bring back the reigning Royals pitcher of the year for just $9 million guaranteed.

What if... Aaron Crow Wasn't Available in 2009?

Just a couple of weeks ago Ben Goessling of the MASN Sports asked a simple question: What if the Nationals had signed Aaron Crow? of course since Goessling's target audience was the Washington Nationals fan base, he exclusively focused on what could have been from a Nationals perspective. You can view the article by clicking here.

So what would Aaron Crow's signing mean from a Royals' point of view, had the Nationals and Crow's agent the Hendricks Brothers not squabbled over the final points of the deal? (The two sides were said to be less than $1 million apart.)

Obviously if Crow would have signed with Washington in 2008, the Royals would not have been in a position to select him in 2009. Might the Royals have considered another advanced starter? North Carolina righty Alex White went just three selections later to the Cleveland Indians, maybe he would have been the pick.

Two seasons later White boasts a career minor league ERA of 2.31. He has amassed 155 strikeouts to 55 walks in 190.2 innings. This season he was traded along with Drew Pomeranz (more on him later) to Colorado for starter Ubaldo Jimenez. Obviously we don't know how White would have been affected by spending the last two seasons in a different organization (the same can be said for any player in this post), however if the Royals would have taken White he would have likely broken into the Big League rotation at some point in 2011, and would at least have a very strong shot to break in the rotation to begin 2012.

There is also, my personal preference for who the Royals should have selected and that would be the Texas teenage flamethrower Shelby Miller. Miller was selected seven picks after Crow, and while I have never read anything linking the Royals to Miller, he was another advanced righty (despite being drafted out of high school) selected in the middle of the first round, so the possibility exists that he was considered.

While Shelby Miller hasn't posted the ERA at the upper levels that White has he has dominated in his own right. He is now just twenty-one and has already pitched in 86.2 innings at the big league level. For his career he has an 11.4 K-Rate to a 3.2 BB-Rate and a 3.17 ERA. In my opinion this would've been the best case for the Royals, but not the most likely.

If the Royals wouldn't have selected Aaron Crow, most signs point to one other guy as being their selection: Athletics shortstop Grant Green. Green was selected immediately after Crow, after some predraft buzz predicting that the Royals would select him if he was available at pick 12.

Green was assigned to High-A in 2010 and burned the league for a .318/.363/.520 slash, while playing 114 games at short stop. Of course in 2010, the Royals had the 4th selection of the draft. For this pick they selected a player with a similar profile as Green in Cal State-Fullerton shortstop Christian Colon.

I'm not going to call this a need pick, because it was clear that after the top 3, there was no clear hierarchy. The Royals who felt several guys had similar value went with the position they felt was the weakest in their system: shortstop. Would they have selected Colon had they taken Green the year before? I seriously doubt it.

So who might they have taken instead? Well prior to the draft there was a distinct buzz around three other prospects. Drew Pomeranz, Chris Sale and Yasmani Grandal.

Pomeranz was the advanced college lefty out of Ole Miss. He was selected fifth overall by the Cleveland Indians, and as I have previously stated he was flipped along with Alex White this past summer for Ubaldo Jiminez.

Had the Royals selected Pomeranz they would have yet another lefty knocking on the door of a big league rotation spot. I would guess he'd spend part of the season pitching in Omaha, eventually breaking in sometime midway through the year, unless he had a killer Spring Training. For his minor league career Pomeranz owns a 1.78 era with a 3.13 K:BB ratio.

Chris Sale was linked the Royals possibly more than any other prospect in the days leading up to the draft. Sale the tall lanky lefty taken out of Florida Gulf Coast University. Like Aaron Crow many projected him as a future reliever and for that reason he wasn't a personal favorite of mine.

Since being drafted 13th overall by the Chicago White Sox, Sale has spent most of his professional time at the Major League level. For his career in Chicago, Sale has came out of the pen for 94.1 innings, while posting a 2.58 era. He's been a force in the back end of Chicago's bullpen, but not necessarily what you want from a top draft pick.

Finally we get to Yasmani Grandal. Roughly twenty-four hours prior to the draft a rumor dropped that stated the Royals had reached a pre-draft agreement with Grandal to make him the fourth player selected in the 2010 Amatuer draft. You can read that report here.

Would the Royals be in a better position right now, had the Nationals signed Aaron Crow in 2008? We really can't be sure. We know that the Royals would have never been able to acquire the only player from the 2009 draft to already have an All Star appearance under his belt, but then again that same guy appears to be settling into a career as a reliever. (Yes, I know he will likely get a shot at the rotation this Spring. Yes, I'd also be surprised if he can thrive in a rotation.)

Had the Royals not been able to select Aaron Crow in 2009, and still went for the advanced righty, they would likely now have Alex White knocking on the door of the big league rotation with Christian Colon in Double-A.

If the Royals would have taken Grant Green like many believed they would they would probably have Grant Green coming off a monster year in Double-A, and either Yasmani Grandal pushing Salvador Perez for a roster spot or Chris Sale in the back end of the bullpen.

Things like this have a domino effect especially in professional sports, but it is no less fun to at least consider how it may have played out.

An Opportunity Missed?

After Jeff Francoeur's extension a few days ago the Royals seem to have in place their lineup for the 2012 season. I'm not sure when the last time was that the Royals had their next season's lineup in place in August was but it is nice to enter the offseason without a hole in the lineup that needs to be filled.

With that being said, I do believe that the Royals have to sign a front end starter to truly initiate the launch sequence for Mission 2012. At this point the Royals have Danny Duffy, Felipe Paulino, and Luke Hochevar as locks for the 2012 rotation. I believe that they should also reserve a spot for either Everett Teaford, Aaron Crow, or Greg Holland depending on which wins a job next Spring.

This isn't a bad group of starters. Not as bad as what Kansas City had to deal with throughout late April into early June this season. Obviously the Royals could go out and bring in a serviceable starter or two in the Bruce Chen/ Jeff Francis variety (heck they could even keep Bruce Chen and Jeff Francis). Or they could invest some of that excess cash and really strengthen that rotation.

Unfortunately it isn't exactly the most impressive free agent class when it comes to starting pitchers. There are a few names that could be pretty good fits, but considering the lack of many potential front end guys there could be a bidding war for guys deserving of that role. This isn't what the Royals want to get into.

Needless to say it isn't easy for teams like the Royals to get a hold of front end starters, even if they have the payroll flexibility to do so. But in my opinion the Royals were just presented an opportunity to get their hands on one.



On August 19, the Houston Astros placed the incredibly underrated Wandy Rodriguez on waivers. This means that teams have two business days to stake a claim on him in order for a chance to trade for him. Some people suspect that should a team claim Wandy the Astros would be content to just let him go in order to retain salary relief.

This is not only a risk that I believe the Royals should take, but also the scenario that I would have preferred to happen. Wandy Rodriguez is slated to make $10 million next season and $13 million the following season. According to Doug Pappas of SABR his 2014 option for $13 million also becomes a player option should Wandy be traded.

I am not sure if a waiver claim would make 2014 a player option, but let's say it does. The Royals would be on the hook for $36 million over the next three seasons. This is without a doubt a big chunk of money. Not to mention Wandy is already 32 and would be 35 years old by the contract's end.

Don't forgetthe Royals were willing to pay Gil Meche $55 million over 5 years and his track record at the time of the deal wasn't even close to as strong as Wandy Rodriguez. The Royals also were willing to pay $36 million to aging, steroid using, no walk taking, Jose Guillen over three years. Why wouldn't they be willing to commit the same amount of cash to a proven front of the rotation starter.

The Royals have a huge amount of payroll flexibility. Even after spending roughly $20 million on amateurs in 2011, the Royals are in a position where for the next three or four seasons they will be able to pay a huge chunk of their roster the league minimum.

The Royals are in a position where they could afford a contract such as this more than any other point in their franchise's history. Also, the guy in question is exactly what the Royals need in order to push themselves to contention.

Wandy Rodriguez has called Minute Maid Park home for his entire career. Normally I would expect his numbers to dip, due to a league change but in this situation not only could I see his numbers staying consistent, but also even improving by moving to a park that's a less hitter friendly.

There is definitely risk in committing $36 million to Wandy Rodriguez. But I believe the Royals are in a position that would make it worthwhile. There aren't many starting pitchers on the 2012 free agent market that will be as good as Wandy Rodriguez, and most will command similar financial commitments.

Should the Astros pull Wandy back if the Royals claimed him, the two clubs could then work out a trade. Rumor is that the Astros prefer salary relief to prospects at this point, so the less the Royals had to give up in terms of talent the better.

I believe that the Royals would have to place their claim on Wandy Rodriguez by Tuesday. I have read several tweets from baseball people that speculate no team will claim Wandy Rodriguez. Quite frankly there are probably only a few teams in all of baseball that could take on the contract without the Astros help at this point in the season.

The Royals have a chance to make a big move to position themselves as a front runner for the 2012 AL Central title. Will they have the courage to take it?

An Ominous Sign?

Last night the future became today for Royals fans. For eight and a half innings we were able to daydream about the future by witnessing the present. Johnny Giavotella hit a triple to the gap. Salvador Perez was dominating the Rays' running game. Felipe Paulino gave up just one run in 5 innings.

The telecast even asked the viewers which Royals player was going to win a Major award first: Salvador Perez, Johnny Giavotella, Mike Moustakas, or Eric Hosmer. (As if it was a given that all of these guys would develop into star caliber players.)

When Melky Cabrera hit a three run home run in the top of the ninth it was an awesome way to cap off the evening. Aaron Crow was then rushed in from the bullpen and we he took the mound he was surrounded by five other players that hadn't yet turned twenty-five.

But then the Royals collapsed. For a team that had for eight and a half innings had looked an awful lot like the fabled 2014 World Series Champion Royals, they looked an awful lot like the 2004, 100 loss Royals in the bottom of the 9th.

To start the inning Ned Yost rushed Aaron Crow to the mound for one reason: a statistic. Remember that mantra "You play to win the game." Well in baseball, Managers play to build up statistics. I don't want to get deep into my feelings on how the modern bullpen is operated, but when Soria was already warmed up and ready to go he should have been put into the game. It isn't as if he has been over used lately.

Instead when the Royals took the four run lead, Ned Yost frantically had to alter his plans because Soria had no place pitching in a non-save situation. So the route Yost took was to rush in a pitcher that hasn't had his best stuff since the All Star break. Sure we learned he was pitching through some ailments. But even if those have recovered, the stuff hasn't.

For a guy that has lacked crispness since the break, rushing in from the bullpen was a recipe for disaster. Two batters later Yost was pulling Crow from the game and calling for his closer. Soria by the way had already warmed up once, sat back down and then as quickly as Crow was forced to warm up for the 9th Soria was asked to rewarm up to relieve Crow.

A few hitters, some shoddy defense, a throw that bounced off a base runner, no one backing up third, and five runs later the Royals were exiting the field without the opportunity to shake hands in the middle of the diamond.

I was an extremely frustrating finale to an otherwise awesome night. It sure felt like 2004, and until this team can put together 9 quality innings on an everyday basis there will be other gmes when we are reminded of the past as well.

But for now we'll try to write this off as a growing pains, a common problem for young teams. Let's just hope we can get them out of our system fast, because I don't know if Royals fans can handle much more bad baseball when the light at the end of the tunnel is supposed to be blinding.

What We Need for 2012: Part 2

So we have accounted for 80% of the 2012 rotation and we know that the Royals are seeking Major League ready starting pitching in trades. But if the Major League ready starting pitching that they receive is in the Sean O'Sullivan/Vin Mazzaro mold the Royals would be better off hanging on to what they have or taking a couple of low level prospects with higher upside.

The Royals don't need to acquire more Major League ready starters that are really just quadruple-A guys. The players they target in trades need to truly be viable rotation options. Otherwise there is no purpose considering the Royals already have two back up spot starters in O’Sullivan and Mazzaro.

Right now the team that keeps popping up in Melky Cabrera rumors is the Philadelphia Phillies. So here are the pitching prospects the Royals should be bring up: Brody Colvin, Jarred Cosart, Trevor May, Jesse Biddle, Vance Worley, J.C. Ramirez, Jon Pettibone, and Austin Hyatt.

Now the Phillies would likely not be willing to part with the first names on this list (Colvin, Cosart, May, and Biddle). These are all top ten prospects in their system, but also they don't exactly fit the bill of Major League ready as most are just in High-A. Pettibone is also just in High-A so I can't imagine him being the centerpiece that the Royals would prefer (I think he would be a great second piece though).

So this leaves Worley, Ramirez, and Hyatt. Let's start with Worley. MLB Trade Rumors has reported that the Phillies are dangling him as part of a package to lure Hunter Pence away from Houston, so we know the Phillies are willing to move him despite his 2.02 era in 62.1 innings pitched this season.

However, Worley seems to have outperformed his peripherals and his xFIP is nearly double his era (though it still is a very respectable 3.99 for a rookie). The other downside is that entering the season Baseball America said he just "profiled as a back of the rotation starter... with no plus pitch." Obviously the Phillies are trying to sell high and are hoping a team overvalues Worley's hot start in the National League.

This is not to say that I believe Worley to not be worthwhile, but I would hope that Royals scouts believe him to be more than a back end guy should they chose to acquire him in a deal. If he is a back end guy then that still makes him better than AAAA guys Sean and Vin, but it isn't exactly the upgrade we need for the 2012 rotation.

Ramirez is also near Major League ready and entering the season Baseball America said he had mid rotation potential. But also entering the season he had a never posted a K rate under 7. However, this season that number has dropped to 4.7. His era is down to 3.93 which is the best of any of his full seasons, but the K rate is a huge concern.

Finally we get to Austin Hyatt. Hyatt was drafted by the Braves in 2004, which automatically makes him appealing to the Dayton Moore regime. Hyatt has consistently been a bit old for his level to be a top prospect, but this season as a twenty-five year old in Double-A, he has a 10.1 K rate to a 3.0 walk rate. He is a guy that looks like a target, but as the only piece and I can't say that he would be enough to get the deal done.

If the Phillies are unwilling to deal Colvin, Cosart, May, or Biddle the Royals should insist upon Worley. If Worley isn't included the Royals should probably walk unless they can receive three prospects back. If Worley is included the Phillies should get by just offering one other prospect with decent upside. If this player happens to be Pettibone, Hyatt, or Ramirez then all the better.


So would you feel comfortable with a 2012 Royals rotation being Paulino, Duffy, Hochevar, Crow, and Worley? There is definitely some upside there that the 2011 version lacked. The rotation would also have AAAA spot starters Sean O'Sullivan and Vin Mazzaro and as much as I dog on them there is a tiny bit of value there. Not to mention Mike Montgomery.

Should Montgomery really turn it around in the second half as he started to do prior to Wednesday night’s 5 earned in 5 inning performance does he edge out Worley for the fifth spot? This of course would render the trade kind of pointless in the short term much like the DeJesus trade last fall. Or does a Montgomery rise mean the Royals finally cut ties with Hochevar should he nose dive in the second half?

What about free agency? The Royals have dollars to spend and while the market isn't exactly heavy with starter options it isn't totally bare either.

Personally I think Mark Buehrle could be a good fit despite his point on the aging curve. Edwin Jackson could also be a really exciting target for Royals fans. C.J. Wilson would also be a great get for the Royals. Dare I say Yu Darvish may hit the market should the Royals really want to make a splash and go all in. Jeff Francis and Bruce Chen could be brought back to fill in as the missing piece.

I suppose what this entire post comes down to, is while the Royals rotation has been pretty terrible this season particularly while Chen was on the DL. However, when it comes to the Royals rotation being a strength for 2012 there are already two reasons to be optimistic.

If you are a believer in Crow you have three. If you think Hochevar can be at least a back end guy for a good rotation you have another. And if you believe Monty will rebound you could already have your five. No need to worry.

But if you believe in just one of the aforementioned possibilities the Royals could answer the other two questions with a trade and then a free agent signing. Quite frankly they could even afford two free agent signings should they think it is needed to contend. If you don't believe in Crow, Hochevar, or Montgomery being pieces next season then you better hope the Royals get back a Major League starter and are active on the free agent market this winter.

Personally I see the rotation as the biggest question mark for 2012. I see enough solutions internal to put out a rotation that could be good enough. But I don't want to take that chance. I'd like to see one pitcher come in via trade and one via free agency (the latter being more critical, considering he would likely be expected to be front end).

Should the Royals be aggressive in acquiring pitching over the course of the next seven months, the rotation could be a real asset entering 2012. I know this sounds strange now when it is one of the worst in baseball, but there are pieces already in place and there are avenues in which the Royals can fill the gap.

It isn’t as if the Royals have to fill the entire glass. Truthfully the glass is already half full with water pouring in. Just as it always is on Royal Revival.

What We Need for 2012: Part 1

As trade winds begin to swirl there are discussions regarding what the Royals need to acquire. According to people that have a lot more information and contacts than me, the Royals are seeking catching and Major League ready starting pitching.

You can't blame them. The Royals have one legitimate starting catching prospect playing full season ball, and that prospect didn't even make most people's preseason top ten catching prospect lists.

Don't get me wrong, Salvador Perez isn't a bad catching prospect. He is a stud defensively and I have been impressed with how his bat has progressed. But the Royals shouldn't be putting all of their eggs in one basket for this guy. He isn’t an elite guy in the Moustakas or Hosmer mold, there has to be a backup plan.

When it comes to pitching the Royals find themselves near the bottom of the rankings when it comes to team era. When you consider that the bullpen has been a bright spot all year long it isn’t pretty imagining just the starter’s numbers.

Of course it didn't help matters when Sean O'Sullivan and Vin Mazzaro were granted time as starters. Not to mention that Kyle Davies has been horrible again and Hochevar has seemed to take two steps back for every one step forward.

So where does that leave us when we look to 2012? The year we are finally supposed to turn the corner and make a some noise in the AL Central. The rotation has to be addressed. At least we won’t have to build from scratch, because the way I see it we have two guys that absolutely deserve a spot as of now: Felipe Paulino and Danny Duffy.

Paulino has been a total disrespect to what the waiver player is supposed to be. You aren't supposed to be able to acquire rotation caliber pitchers with potentially dominating stuff. Let alone a guy that almost immediately is a top of the rotation guy. But that is what Paulino has become since landing in Kansas City.

So far in Kansas City, Paulino has posted a 3.60 era with a 53 strikeouts and just 12 walks in 55 innings of play. For the season he has an xFIP of 3.14 which includes his time in Colorado when he got lit up like a firecracker. Paulino is under team control through 2014, and if he can keep up what he has done thus far in Kansas City then there is no reason he shouldn't be a part of the rotation for the next several seasons.

The other guy that is a lock is Danny Duffy. Duffy has definitely struggled with his command and pitch counts, but he is a rookie and over the course of his last 3 starts he has been a top flight starter with an xFIP under 3.

Duffy has posted an above average strikeout rate and has displayed the third fastest heater amongst lefty starters with his 93.5 mph mark. The stuff is dynamite and if he can harness his control and trust it enough to challenge top flight hitters he will be more than fine.

With Paulino and Duffy the Royals have found 40% of next season’s rotation. It isn’t a stretch for both to be quality mid rotation guys and if they can improve could even be number 2 starters.

So that leaves three spots that the Royals need to fill. I suppose at this point we should assume that one of those spots will be occupied by the enigmatic Luke Hochevar. Hochevar has been incredibly frustrating this season and I refuse to buy into the problem solved talk every time he puts together one good start. If he can string together several in a row and put to proper use the stuff that enabled him to be a top draft choice, I'll reconsider my stance.

For now though, in my mind Hochevar has started down a path that could lead Royals fans to view him as Kyle Davies part two. For this reason he'll be back in the Royals rotation next season, but without a turnaround second half we really shouldn't expect anything more than a back end guy.

So now we are up to 60%. That is until we add Aaron Crow into the fold. According to CBS Fantasy Sports, Dayton Moore has confirmed to MLB Network Radio that the Royals will move Crow to the rotation for 2012.

I like this move. Crow's stuff reminds me a bit of Greinke's. His fastball can reach the upper 90s with life and his slider can be unhittable. The huge difference between the two is that Crow's command can't even compare to Greinke's. Nonetheless I hope that time in the pen will play a similar role in Crow's transition to the Big League rotation just as it did for Greinke.

Crow has front of the rotation stuff. But we should curb our enthusiasm, considering just a year ago he was about to be demoted to Wilmington after a dreadful first half in Northwest Arkansas. I'm not saying I don't think he can still be a front of the rotation guy, but when it comes to expectations for 2012, Crow shouldn't be the guy we are counting on to turn our rotation into a team strength (although it is possible).

The Royals have also suggested that they will consider moving Greg Holland to the rotation as well. Holland has been totally filthy in the pen this year, however, he himself has said that when he started in Wilmington he was unable to repeat his delivery enough as a starter to get past the first few innings of the game. I can't really imagine Holland making the move to the rotation and if he did I don't think I would feel comfortable with the arms in the bullpen without him.

End of Part 1

Sorry for the Lord of the Rings style ending but unfortunately this post really took on a life of its own so I have decided to cut it into parts. So I’ll get the next part up shortly.

What to do with Joakim

It appears that after abandoning his cutter Soria has refound his pre 2011 form. This is huge news for the Royals, because if Soria would have continue to fall off the ledge as it appeared he was doing it could have really hurt the timetable for contention. The good news is that he has gotten back to being the dominant closer that we have come to know and love.

As for his role in contention it would seem that it will play out in one of two ways. (The third way which I discussed about a month ago, is obviously not a legitimate option in the organization's eyes.) The first way that Soria could play into the Royals future is as the closer. Make no mistake about it Soria could very easily fit into this team's future.

Of course now is when you respond by saying "thank you captain obvious." The reason I say this though is because when reading outside sources they often seem to act as though since the Royals aren't contending now, there is no reason to keep him when they could trade him for pieces that fit into the future wave. This thought process is flat out wrong.

Soria is under team control through 2014 and while this doesn't directly coincide with the controlled years of Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer and Danny Duffy. It does overlap by three and a half seasons. After which all three of the aforementioned players will hit arbitration and become more expensive.

People argue that it doesn't make sense for a non-contending team to keep a quality closer. However, if this team truly wants to and thinks it can contend as early as next season it will be important that the 9th inning is locked down and we know that Soria can do that.

But there is also another way in which Soria could play a key part in the future of the Kansas City Royals. That is by trading him. As we nearly found out the shelf life of elite major league closers is not nearly as long as we would like to believe. Also, given the way in which closers tend to be overvalued in comparison to their true value as judged by WAR, VORP and other sabermetic measurements it makes sense to flip a closer for more valuable parts.

If Joakim Soria has truly regained his value since his return to the closer role, then the Royals need to strongly consider offers for him. When you look at how next year's roster is taking shape there are a couple of glaring holes: starting pitching and catching. Also, when you look at the middle of the order for the coming years it would also seem that the Royals could use an elite right handed bat to stick in between Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer.

It is true that the Royals could probably get by in the catching front with a veteran in the Matt Traenor mold. They could also wait and hope that Salvador Perez pans out in the way that they are hoping. The Royals also could have that middle of the order right handed bat playing right field Northwest Arkansas right now.

But consider that Salvador Perez wasn't even rated in the top 10 catching prospects by mlb.com and that Wil Myers probably needs the rest of this season in Northwest Arkansas and could benefit by a full season in Omaha. Given this timetable he would be positioned for a promotion in mid April 2013. Effectively delaying his free agency two years later than Moustakas and Hosmer, while also positioning his controlled years closer to his peak years of control.

There is a team out there that could fit the Royals needs in a trade for Joakim Soria. It also happens to be a team that has been hot and heavy for Soria for years, and according to sources has been in discussions with the Royals on the matter for the last week. That team is the hated New York Yankees.

So let's examine what a deal could look like between the two clubs:

The Must Have

Jesus Montero

Here is the guy that could be placed fourth in the Royals future order. He entered the season as the number three prospect in baseball. He is a career .309/.366/.494 hitter in the minors despite being considerably younger than the competition at every stop. He is right handed catcher that is just twenty-one years old and has already shown the ability to hit at the triple-A level. He boasts a 70 on both the batting and power scouting scales and has drawn comparisons to Miguel Cabrera.

The downside is that Montero positions himself at catcher on the diamond, even though most don't believe he can actually play catcher. If the Royals acquired him a trade they could either bite the bullet and deal with him at catcher like the Mets did with Mike Piazza or they would have to find a creative solution. This solution could either be moving Eric Hosmer to an outfield corner, or trading their other top trading chip Billy Butler to allow Montero to become a full time designated hitter.

The Wish We Could Get Him Too

Austin Romine

Romine entered the season rated as the number six prospect in the Yankees organization and the number 98th overall according to Baseball America. Romine is considered a well rounded prospect that has a good shot at staying behind the plate. Reports are that he has cut down on his passed balls, however, he still owns just a 25% career caught stealing percentage. Scouts say he has a strong arm so I speculate that this is more mechanics and footwork than anything else.

Romine has improved his catching and his bat. This season he is hitting .291/.353/.408 in double-A. If he was acquired he could catch the remainder of the season in Omaha and if he showed enough with the bat could be given the opportunity to open the 2012 season as catcher for the Royals.

It would seem strange that the Yankees would be willing to part with two of their strong catching prospects. However, I speculate that since the Yankees have a short term solution in Russel Martin they may be willing to wait for Gary Sanchez who could be the best of the bunch. They also have J.R. Murphy who is a pretty good catching prospect himself.

One or Two of these Guys

Dellin Betances

Betances entered the 2011 rated as the number 43 prospect by Baseball America and as the third best prospect in the Yankees organization. He is a 6-8 righty that can dial it up into the mid 90s. He also has a great curve that some rate as a 70 on the scouting scale. Whether he winds up as a front in starter or dominant reliever will hinge on his change up which is average at best. Some scouts believe that the change up could one day be his third plus offering.

Betances currently boasts a 2.37 era in 64 innings at the double-A level. He could be Major League ready by Opening Day next season and could be a work horse front end guy. I am not sure if the Yankees would consider dealing him in a trade already involving Jesus Montero, but he along with the next pitcher would have to be at the top of the list of pitchers to inquire about.

Manny Banuelos

Interestingly enough Banuelos entered the year ranked fourth in the Yankees system behind Betances, but 41st overall two spots ahead of Betances in Baseball America's top 100. Banuelos is listed at 5-10, 155 and pitches from the opposite side of the rubber as Betances. The Mexican native normally sits in the low 90s but has hit 95 on the gun in the past.

Banuelos is also regarded for having top notch command. His changeup and curveball could one day be plus pitches and are already above average offerings. Banuelos has currently logged 69.1 innings this season in Double-A. He has a 3.38 era while posting the highest walk rate of his career at 4.8 per 9. The Yankees seem to be enamored with Banuelos so I don't know that the Royals could pry him away in a deal.

Hector Noesi

Noesi doesn't have quite the prospect flair as either of the two other pitchers we have discussed, but he is just twenty-four years old and owns a 3.20 career era over 373.2 minor league innings. He has only pitched in 20.2 innings so far in 2011, but has posted a 3.92 era in Triple-A. The concern is that his walk rate has spiked in those innings and his k rate has taken a dip.

He is near major league ready, but only really projects as a back end starter. His fastball sits in the low 90s, and he has a good changeup with tailing action. But without a breaking pitch his potential is limited.

Adam Warren

Warren like Noesi has been an extremely effective starter in the minors despite not having the prospect status like Banuelos or Betances. Warren owns a career minor league era of 2.45 with a k:bb of 3:1. His fastball hits the lows 90s with a bit of deception. He has a fringey changeup and throws a cutter and curveball that need to develop for him to be a front end guy. If his breaking stuff doesn't develop his fastball could be good enough to land him in a big league bullpen.

David Phelps

Phelps is very similar to Adam Warren. Phelps often works in the low 90s and he also has a decent curveball. Entering the season it was said that he needs to develop his change up into an average pitch at least in order to really develop into a strong prospect. He may be doing that considering he has a 3.38 era in 85.1 innings for Triple-A Scranton. His k rate is currently 7.8 and his walk rate is 2.3. These numbers suggest that he is near Major League ready.

In my opinion the Royals would need to get the following Jesus Montero, plus either Austin Romine, Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos, and also one of Hector Noesi, Adam Warren, or David Phelps. Another prospect that could be discussed is Slade Heathcott. He doesn't directly fit into the Royals needs for contention, but the guy has five tool potential and could be a steal if the Royals acquired him.

It'll be tough for the Royals to pull the trigger in a deal for Joakim Soria. He represents so much to the organization and particularly the scouting department. They shouldn't make the deal unless they are blown away. But it is possible that a deal could be presented to make the move worthwhile.

If the Royals can fill multiple holes by dealing Soria it could push them closer to contention. If they traded Soria in a deal like the one I just mentioned they could then also look to move Billy Butler, given that Montero could take his spot at DH. Crow could move into the closer's spot and another starter could be ready to fight for a rotation spot.

The Royals are in a good position there are two routes they could move in. They could stand pat and play it safe. Giving them a closer for the next three and half seasons that could be lights out. Or they could roll the dice and risk winding up with less, opening a hole at the back end of the pen while not filling the holes they were expecting to. Or the trade could pay off and Crow becomes a dominate closer, with Montero becoming the second coming of Cabrera and a pitcher establishing themselves as a key member of the rotation.

What do you think?

A Modest Proposition.

Let me preface this post by stating I don't expect the Royals to take the route that I am about to suggest. I myself am not totally convinced that it would be the wisest move, but I have thought about it a bit and I want to throw my thoughts out there for Royals fans. It would be a bold move and the potential reward would be great.

The fact is that for whatever reason Joakim Soria isn't the pitcher that we have grown to love. There are no obvious signs mechanically for why this is the case, but looking at his numbers it is blatantly obvious that he has lost his command. But if it isn't a mechanical issue why has he lost the ability to feel his pitches? We'll get back to this in a second.

But what Soria's shakiness and demotion could be for the Royals is opportunity. When Soria took over as closer for the Royals in 2007, he quickly established himself as one of the premier closers in the game. He never had your typical closer's stuff, and many considered his array of pitches more in line with what you would expect from a starter. What Soria did have was the "closer mentality." Joakim was Mr. Cool. Even when a team would get a rally going or when Joakim would enter the game in a tight spot it was obvious that he wasn't concerned.

This season, however, he hasn't gave off that same vibe of confidence. He has gotten behind in the count early and often and because of this hasn't had the benefit of getting hitters off balance. His walk rate is 3.8 which is by far the highest of his career. I believe that the reason Soria has fallen off is that his mentality is gone.

I have no idea why Soria has lost his killer instinct, or what has caused this but at this point it is nowhere to be found. Just look at this quotation from Soria in today's KC Star:

“I felt I had better command today,” Soria said. “I didn’t change anything in my mechanics. I just go ahead and try to change my mentality a little bit.”

This statement strikes me as a guy that is just trying to get his mound presence back. So if his stuff is still sharp... and if his command is still there when he is composed (he threw five of six first pitch strikes yesterday)... then maybe now is the prime opportunity for the Royals to move him to the rotation. This would be especially easy at this point, because there is no longer of the fear of breaking something that didn't need fixing.

Obviously if the Royals attempt this there is the possibility that something could go wrong. It is natural to think that if he can't hack it as a reliever then why would he hack it as a starter? But like I said stuff doesn't seem to be the concern, and it was always his mentality that really put him into that closer role.

You could make the point that Soria could be prone to injury should the Royals attempt to stretch him out? That is a valid fear, but it wouldn't be the first time a reliever has been given the opportunity and when Soria has been injured in the past the cause was believed to be lack of consistent innings, not because he was logging to many innings.

Even when Soria has been effective as a reliever his WAR has been on average 2.0 according to fangraphs. Don't get me wrong this is about as high as one could expect from a relief pitcher. However, in 2010 there were ninety-four pitchers that posted a stronger total. Meaning Soria was considered as valuable as starters like Paul Maholm, Carlos Silva, Barry Zito and oh yeah, Kyle Davies posted a WAR of 2.0 in 2010.

What this means is that even though Soria had the ninth best WAR among relievers in 2010, his value didn't lead to anymore Royals wins then Kyle Davies. Let that sink in. Now the value of a closer will not cease to be a hot topic among traditionalists and sabermetricians anytime soon. It seems that using this argument we are seeing at least a somewhat undervaluation. However, even if that is the case Soria would be much more valuable to the team in the rotation than in the bullpen.

What we see in this illustration is that even if Soria transitioned to the rotation and he didn't become the ace or frontline guy that many would expect, he would still be vastly more valuable as a 3 or 4 starter than he would be as a closer. This is definitely something that should not be overlooked.

Value is something that the Royals will need to maximize, especially with the rotation in the short run if they truly want to contend in 2012. Right now there pessimism brewing regarding the farm system particularly the young arms up at the top. Danny Duffy has performed well, but Mike Montgomery has struggled more than anticipated, John Lamb is out for the season, and Chris Dwyer has been dreadful. What this means is that the Royals may not have the arms to contend as early as next season, unless they either think creatively, look outside the organization or both.

By moving Soria to the rotation you could be potentially be adding a frontline arm without shelling out the cash on the free agent market that it would take to acquire one. At this point the rotation options for opening day next year are: Danny Duffy, Luke Hochevar, Sean O'Sullivan, Vin Mazzaro, and Mike Montgomery if he is able to right the ship. Not exactly an awe-inspiring bunch.

Duffy will be a strength and Hochevar seems to warrant a spot, but I don't believe that O'Sullivan and Mazzaro have done anything to show they are more than AAAA guys and even if Montgomery becomes the ace that we are hoping for by next season, the Royals still have two gaping holes. Soria, could be the answer that we are looking for.

If the Royals believe that Soria's struggles are due to command issues, perhaps they should take the same route they did with Jeremy Jeffress. Let him start, give him the greatest opportunity to improve or get back his command. The most critical thing is that Soria is able to regain his value and if a move to the rotation does that it will be the best thing for all of us.

But if Soria's struggles are rooted purely in mentality as I am suggesting, the opportunity is there for the Royals to improve on an area of great weakness. Crow moves into the closer role and does his thing, with Joakim Soria becoming the frontline guy that Kansas City is lacking right now. If that turns out to be the case then we can really start to gear up for contention in 2012.

What Should the Royals Do?

So the Kyle Davies situation brings about an interesting situation for the Royals and when Ned Yost elected to bring in Tuesday's starter Vin Mazzaro and he imploded it caused an even murkier situation.

It appears that the Royals now need two starters in their big league rotation. So let's look at the possibilities.

Aaron Crow: I don't think I am alone in hoping that the Royals elect to stretch Crow out. If the Royals do this it may take a couple of starts to get Crow's pitch count where it needs to be, but his upside could be the highest among the starter options.

Mike Montgomery: The factors that are preventing Monty from getting immediately promoted are that he got shelled in his last start in Colorado Springs and money. If Montgomery would have dominated in his last start I wouldn't have been shocked at all to see Monty given an opportunity in the big league pen. However, with his struggles with control and his implosion against the Sky Sox, it makes sense that the Royals would leave him in Omaha and make him for their hand.

Danny Duffy: Duffy had perhaps his worst start last time out. But his numbers are still strong enough to warrant a big league promotion. I believe that even if Duffy doesn't live up to the hype he would still represent an upgrade over almost every pitcher in our rotation. A factor working against Duffy though is the service time issue and Super 2.

Jeff Suppan: Suppan could be the option the Royals go with should they chose to pinch pennies. However, there is no reason to believe that he has earned his promotion. He entered tonight with an era around 5 and then proceeded to get shelled.

Nate Adcock: Adcock was viewed as a darkhorse rotation candidate entering the season. Adcock could be granted a few starts as the Royals wait for Monty and/or Duffy to prove themselves and delay their Super 2.

Kevin Pucetas/Luis Mendoza/Blake Johnson: All are on the 40-man roster so the Royals could use them as stop gaps until they believe one of the prospects are ready. If the Royals aren't comfortable with the previous options then it is safe to assume that they would write off Mazzaro's poor performance tonight to circumstance and allow him to continue work until the farm is ready.

The Harvest of the Process

Well that was probably the shortest shelf life ever for a Royals blog poll. Just over twenty-four hours ago I asked the fans: which of the Royals elite prospects would be the first to reach the Majors. Of course if it is any consolation Eric Hosmer was leading the race with 6 votes compared to 2 for Danny Duffy and 1 for Mike Moustakas.

Eric Hosmer's promotion to the majors has already become a symbol for the Royals' fan base. It reprsents the moment that the Royals transitioned to a new stage of the Process. The stage in which the Process transitions from an underground operation with a cult following into the limelight with every Royals fan taking notice on a daily basis.

Sure the Royals have already received major contributions from several rookies. Actually six are already on the roster. Aaron Crow has been dominant in the back end of the bullpen. Jeremy Jeffress has dazzled fans with an upper 90s fastball. Tim Collins has corkscrewed his way into a key relief role. Louis Coleman has deceived hitters throughout his first couple of weeks in Royal blue. Nate Adcock has transitioned from mop up duty to sinker ball specialist. Jarrod Dyson has almost single handedly stolen multiple wins from the jaws of defeat.

But now the Royals will finally tap into that cashcrop of prospects that set a record for placing the most players ever on the Baseball America top 100 prospect list. Eric Hosmer, who many regard as the third best hitting prospect in all of Minor League baseball will make his debut tonight.

We are no longer tasting the appetizer and we are no longer seeing the tip of the iceberg. What is about to happen in Kansas City will be the main course of what Royals hope will be a five course dinner that leads to multiple postseason appearances and dare we say World Series titles.

Prior to the season it seemed that every major publication that predicted future World Series winners was calling for big time results in Kansas City as soon as 2013. Royals fans have even discussed Mission:2012 as the calling card for the Royals ascension to contention. But now, with the Royals 17-14, just 4.5 behind the surprise Cleveland Indians and tied for first in the AL Wilcard race. Royals fans look at how Detroit, Chicago and Minnesota are struggling.

Royals fans look at Alex Gordon, Jeff Francoeur, and Wilson Betemit, all guys who have been previously regarded as top prospects who are now entering the prime of their careers. All of which are currently in the process of breaking out. Sure in a month we could be talking about how all have fallen off after their blazing starts. But is it totally unreasonable to hope or even assume that this could be more?

What if Gordon, Francoeur, and Betemit really have turned a corner in their careers? Shouldn't the Royals attempt to grab the race by the throat and go for it? Apparently the organization feels like they should. With the promotion of Eric Hosmer the Royals have announced to the rest of the AL Central and the American League that it is time to stop messing around. If Gordon, Francoeur, and Betemit can continue to rake we won't be looking forward to 2012 anymore. Instead the Process will be looking at Operation:2011.

Tonight the Royals will improve the heart of their order by hitting Eric Hosmer sixth and they will improve their infield with Eric Hosmer at first. Eric Hosmer will be granted the luxury of hitting in the middle of the order with hot sticks in front of him and on most nights Wilson Betemit hitting behind him.

I prefer Hosmer in this spot. It is the perfect place where Hosmer can produce and come up to the plate in important situations, but also not have the weight of the offense on his back. I also believe that on night's when Wilson Betemit is hitting 7th Hosmer will benefit from a strong bat in the on deck circle. Teams will be forced to pitch to the rookie much more than if his protection was Matt Traenor or Brayan Pena.

This brings up an interesting point. Was Kila Ka'aihue really granted a fair opportunity? He hit in the heart of the order at the start of the season but after a dreadful start was bumped all the way down to the 7th spot. Once there he was afforded no protection and continued to struggle. Eventually he found himself in a platoon and finally he found himself on the bench before his eventual demotion.

In Kila's last eight games there was evidence that he had begun to turn things aroud from a statistical standpoint. Obviously these cues were lost on Manager Ned Yost and General Manager Dayton Moore. Kila Ka'aihue will likely join the immortal likes of Calvin Pickering and Ken Harvey in the Royals blogosphere. Always wondering what could have been had he been granted a longer opportunity or not struggled so much out of the gate in 2011.

Ultimately though the Royals future didn't fall on the back of Kila Ka'aihue in anyway. Truth be told the best case was that he raked in 2011 and the Royals could have netted a decent prospect in return. It came to a point though that Eric Hosmer could no longer hold Hosmer back.

With just another month to go before the organization could have held off Super 2 status the team decided that Hosmer was too ready to hold back. Hosmer was hitting .439/.525/.582 through twenty-six games in Omaha. It was time to make the switch. The organization clearly felt that from both a developmental and competitive standpoint it was Hosmer's time to shine in Kansas City.

At this point in time I have little reason to doubt the Royals ability to develop prospects. Hosmer had a babip of nearly .500 and almost all of his offensive value while at Omaha had come by hitting singles. It isn't exactly what you'd hope for when it comes for a middle of the order bat, but reports are that Hosmer was hitting the ball hard almost every time up to the plate.

Hosmer has great plate discipline. He has a sweet stroke and uses the opposite field with ease. He commands the strikezone. He has been compared Joey Votto, Will Clark, Mark Teixeira, and Adrian Gonzalez. His line in Omaha doesn't scream power, but I have little doubt that he is going to rake in the Majors. He is the rare prospect whose back is going to immediately impact the Major League level.

Mark Hosmer's promotion as another tick in David Glass' favor as he continues to rebuild his fickle image. While reports that this promotion will cost the Royals upwards of $15 mill are exaggerated. There is a strong possibility that by promoting Hosmer on May 5th instead of June 15th, the Royals will have cost themselves some leverage in negotiating a long term deal and even about $7 million in his first arbitration case.

Although I don't think anyone would complain if Hosmer was awarded Ryan Howard's $10 million as a first time Super 2 arbitration eligible, given that it would mean that Hosmer will have already won an MVP award.

What Royals fans are all probably hoping is that the Royals will lock up Eric Hosmer sooner rather than later and all of the arbitration talk will be moot. It has become a popular move to provide a top young player financial security while also buying out arbitration and a couple of years of free agency.

Evan Longoria was promoted to the Majors with such a deal in place and now it is generally regarded as the most team friendly deal in all of baseball. There is a fear though that since Eric Hosmer's agent is Scott Boras the Royals won't even be granted an opportunity to lockup their young star. This fear is not necessary for Royals fans. Look at Carlos Gonzalez who just signed a 7 year, $80 million. Gonzalez, like Hosmer, is also advised by Scott Boras.

I believe that if the Royals win Hosmer will be in Kansas City longer than the typical six years of pre free agency service. Hosmer's best friend is Mike Moustakas and if the Royals start adding to the flags I have little doubt that Dayton Moore and David Glass will do everything they can to keep their superstars in Kansas City for as long as possible.

Speaking of Mike Moustakas. I am going to predict that he gets real hot starting yesterday. The promotion of Eric Hosmer to Kansas City is going to serve as a notice for all of the prospects at the triple A level. If you can help the Big club then you are going to be given that opportunity. The Royals aren't messing around and it is time to get this thing started.

Particularly Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy, and Mike Montgomery could make impacts on the Major League club. The rotation has struggled this season and Danny Duffy and Mike Montgomery could offer quick and effective upgrades. But guys like David Lough, Lorenzo Cain, and Johnny Giavotella could also get an opportunity to prove their worth this season.

The Royals offense, which is already tops in the American League with 162 runs scored just got another potent weapon to work with. With an offense that strong the Royals should continue to be right in the race and if the pitching staff can get an upgrade the Royals really could be playing meaningful games all season long. Something that I have a hard time even grasping, considering I have never witnessed it in my lifetime.

Perhaps in ten years the Royals won't celebrate on Cinco de Mayo because of Mexican heritage, but instead because they can look back on it as the day that Eric Hosmer got called up, the day the Process hit Kansas City, and the day the Royals organization finally revived itself into an American League power.

Prospect Countdown: 15-11

15. Johnny Giavotella 2B

Johnny Giavotella was drafted in the second round out of the University of New Orleans, a place he pays homage to every time he came to the plate in 2010 at Arvest Ballpark with his New Orleans style jazz playing on the speakers. Giavotella was drafted in 2008 and was immediately sent to full season Burlington Iowa. There he became a catalyst at the top of the order that the Bees to that point had been without.

Two years later Giavotella continues to be a catalyst to whatever lineup he finds himself in. This past season in Northwest Arkansas he cruised to a line of .322/.395/.460 and after setting the Texas League on fire in the second half he was sent to the Arizona Fall League where he continued to blaze to a line of .328/.371/.578.

Some have compared Giavotella to Boston's Dustin Pedroia and many scoff at the notion. However, in Pedroia's first stint in the upper levels he split the season between double and triple-A and posted a line of .293/.385/.452. Now most scouts are probably somewhat surprised that Pedroia developed the power that he did, but at the time he was still viewed as a very strong prospect and described as a "gamer."

Giavotella is a gamer. He is a vocal player that has quick wrists with a short swing. His forearms are massive and probably a major reason why Giavotella is able to generate as much power as he does. I don't see Giavotella winning any MVP awards, but he could be a top notch hitter if he continues to develop. I also believe that he is one of the most Major League ready hitters in the entire organization probably ranking between second and fourth in this regard.

The concerns with Giavotella stem from his defense, in particular his range which projects to be average at best. Because he is already a second baseman many see him as a future starter or bust due to his bat not being able to carry him should he have to shift to a corner spot. I believe that his bat will be good enough for a Major League career regardless. Teams are always looking for guys that can hit Major League hitting and if he is capable of that someone will find him a position.

As far as his future with the Royals goes though it will be important that he hits the ground running when he is granted the opportunity at the Major League level. This is because with Alcides Escobar at short, Colon is now looming behind Giavotella on the organizational depth chart. If Giavotella continues to knock the cover off the ball he should see Kansas City by season's end unless Chris Getz decides to become a .300 hitter.

14. Tim Collins LHP

Over a year ago I defended the Ankiel signing because I felt as though he was a good buy low candidate and he would be a tradable commodity come the July deadline. This turned out to be true and in exchange for a couple months of Ankiel and perhaps the only Royal to ever be booed in his home opener, Kyle Farnsworth the Royals were able to add a piece to the future. Of course I am talking about Jesse Chavez.... I mean Tim Collins.

Collins instantly became a favorite among Royals prospect buffs due to his diminutive stature and his awesome K rate, which as you can see in the graph above has been at 13.3 per 9 innings in his minor league career. Collins stands in at 5-7, 155. When he stands on the hill he turns himself in a cock eye fashion and a delivery that only shows his back at the beginning. He then hurls not only himself at the hitter but also hurls mid 90s heat that he occasionally mixes with a plus hammer curveball.

Collins has closer potential, but should become a very strong setup man for the Kansas City Royals for the next six or seven seasons. This Spring the Royals have Collins working from both sides of the rubber in an effort to add even more deception to his already deceptive delivery.

Even though he is not yet on the 40-man roster I expect that he will open the season in the Major League Bullpen. If this turns out not to be the case, it will be a result of roster manipulation and inventory control and not because of Collins poor performance. Either way we should see Collins in Kansas City sooner rather than later.

13. Salvador Perez C



Salvador Perez was signed out Venezuela in 2006 as part of Dayton Moore's first international signing class. So far he has yielded extremely promising results. So promising in fact that I predict Perez to break out in a big way in 2011 when he spends the season at Arvest Ballpark for the Northwest Arkansas Naturals.

Much has been made of Perez this Spring as Yost has been enamored with his defensive abilities. Pitchers love to throw to him and runners hate to run on him. Perez blocks balls with ease and records an astounding 1.8 second pop time to second base.

In the Royals intrasquad game perhaps the organizations best basestealer Jarrod Dyson attempted to rob second base from Perez. However, when Dyson normally would go into his slide he found that the ball was at second waiting for him. After the play Dyson was quoted as saying "I aint never got thrown out by that much."

It isn't just Perez's glove that has the organization and me so excited. As the youngest hitter in the Carolina League in 2010 he was able to hit .290/.322/.411 a line that is reminiscent of Sandy Alomar Jr. a player that Perez is often compared to. He also was able to hit seven homers, which was the highest total of his young career.

Yost believes that Perez is major league ready, but because he hasn't had a single at bat in the upper minors that is where he will spend 2011. Nonetheless it seems that the presence of Perez in the system was a major factor in the organization's decision to move Myers to the outfield. Hopefully, Perez can continue to breakout with the bat because his defense is already top notch.

12. Brett Eibner OF

Eibner entered the 2010 draft as perhaps the most intriguing two way player available. He could either be the power hitting centerfielder that had a knack for the clutch in college. Or he could be the pitcher that entered the game throwing missiles and dominated hitters with heat. Eibner preferred to be a hitter and the Royals obliged by selecting him in the second round and signing him to an overslot bonus.

Eibner may possess the highest upside of any player in the Royals system. He could develop into a four or five tool centerfielder with plus plus power, or his swing could continue to be too long and he could strikeout so much in the low levels that the Royals decided to convert him back to pitcher. Either way his numbers will surely be worth keeping an eye on in 2011 for the casual prospect observer.

Eibner should open 2011 in either Kane County or Wilmington. If he can keep his strikeouts down he could ascend through the system extremely fast and could even see Northwest Arkansas by season's end. He could also strikeout 150+ times in Kane County and just move one level at a time. It is tough to say.

11. Aaron Crow RHP

Those that hated the Luke Hochevar pick seemed to hate the Crow pick as well. It isn't hard to miss the similarities. Both are guys that declined huge bonuses and then went the Indy League route only to be selected a year later in the first round again. Many Royals prospect observers were less than thrilled with the pick.

But then Crow went to Spring Training and in a short time with the Big League club caused such a stir that some even argued he should open the season in Royal blue and I don't mean Omaha. Instead he was sent to Springdale where he would be the opening night starter for a team that would go on to win the Texas League title. Unfortunately for Crow by season's end he was no longer with the team due to a demotion to Wilmington.

Crow has great stuff. After watching most of his starts in Springdale I can attest to the fact that his stuff is still there. He has a mid 90s heater that has great sinking action that produced a huge groundball rate. (I can't remember the exact number, but I do know that according to Dayton Moore it was one of the top rates in the minor leagues.) Hopefully with improved infield conditions and a strong defense this rate can help Crow to produce strong results. Stuff is not what concerns me about Aaron Crow.

What concerns me is that his control in Northwest Arkansas yielded a 4.4 walks per 9 inning rate. Even with a ton of groundballs it is going to be hard to win with a rate that high. Perhaps part of the problem is due to Crow's questionable mechanics on the backside. I once read that a pitcher with a wrist wrap should never be a bonus baby, because their control will always be in jeopardy.

I am still optimistic that Crow's troubles were a combination of bad luck, overpitching and rust. I believe that he has ace potential, but if his control does not come around as a starter could still be a valuable member of the bullpen, perhaps even as a closer. Given that Crow is on the 40 man roster he needs to figure it out as a starter fast or else the Royals could use the Major League bullpen as an acclimation process. Crow should begin the season in Northwest Arkansas maybe even once again as the opening night starter.