Royals Rank 9th in Under 25 Talent

Yesterday, the writers at Baseball Prospectus unveiled their annual under 25 talent rankings. The Royals ranked 8th among all teams and their top ten featured four Major Leaguers and six prospects. Top on the list was first baseman Eric Hosmer.

The Royals were the top ranked team in the American League Central. The Twins followed at 13, then the White Sox at 18, Indians at 25 and Tigers at 27. Overall the Royals continue to boast youthfulness and plenty of high upside talent. According to C.J. Whittmann, eac of the Royals prospects that appear on the list boast 60 grades or higher.

Ranking just behind the Royals at 9th overall was the Tampa Bay Rays. As you would imagine, Wil Myers topped the list. Former Royals farmhand Jake Odorizzi came in at 5th.

I am always interested to see Baseball Prospectus's take on the top under 25 organization rankings. I think it serves as a different perspective than the farm system rankings that we see from Baseball America. However, an age 25 cut off does seem a bit arbitrary. I'd be interested to see talent rankings for players with less than 3 years of service time. I think this would provide an excellent snapshot of how much low cost talent each organization has. Maybe someday, there will be a ranking that looks at young talent in this regard.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

When Friedman Stole Christmas

Okay, I am the other writer for Royal Revival that has been chosen to spill his thoughts on the Myers-Shields trade.  While Damion Mandalas looked at a few of the positives and tried to see both sides, I am just going to react on how I really think this trade panned out for us as Royal Nation.

I will always remember last night, it could very well define my childhood love of the Kansas City Royals.  December 9th, 2012.  It was a cold, chilly night; I was sitting by the fire watching the Dark Knight rises when all of a sudden, I clicked the Twitter app on my iPhone only to find that Andrew Friedman had been lurking in the shadows waiting to pounce on his prey.  Okay, I'll quit this theatrical thing I got going on, but really I was freaking out.  In fact, when I saw the possible trade I got that bad feeling in your stomach when you think you're about to puke.  This couldn't be true. Remember during the Winter Meetings when these rumors were going on? And they passed through?  Surely that would be the case this time.  No, this rumor seemed different, tons of analysts were reporting this rumor and tons were saying it could be done shortly.

After an hour or two of frantically panicking about us trading what some Royals fans called the "Last Hope" Wil Myers.  It was complete.  It was the worst text notification I have ever received from ESPN.  I just stared at it.  No words could come out.  That initial reaction was only seeing that we had traded Wil Myers and other prospects for James Shields and Wade Davis.  I was sick just seeing that, but when it came out that we had also given Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery AND Patrick Leonard.  I knew that Andrew Friedman had struck again.  I have two friends of mine that are Rays fans.  They are actually brothers, and I joke with them all the time saying "The Royals aren't smart enough to play with Friedman".  Now there is actually some evidence to that statement.

This trade made me sick.  It was a desperation move by a desperate General Manager who hasn't done squat in his tenure with the Royals.  What the heck is he doing?  We clearly overpaid for James Shields.  Those two Rays fans will tell you the same, and I am as big of a James Shields fan as they come. I've always loved this guy.  However, we gave up way too much for possibly (probably) only two years of "Big Game James".  I was happy that Yordano Ventura and Kyle Zimmer weren't involved in the trade because I like them both better than Odorizzi and Montgomery but still, trading our Minor League Player of the year for a guy that we will probably only have for two years doesn't make sense to me at all.

I'm not a huge Jake Odorizzi fan but I definitely think he could turn out to be a solid 2-3 SP in the big leagues.  I don't know how Friedman got us to put him in the trade but whatever he said to sweet talk more really worked.  Mike Montgomery going doesn't rile me up as much, because he has just disappointed me the last two seasons.  I loved this guy and thought he was going to be a STUD.  I still think he has more upside than Odorizzi does, he just needs someone to tap into it.  The scary thing to me is I think the Rays will tap into his potential.  It makes me cringe that the Rays possibly could have one of the best hitters in the majors in Wil Myers and if Montgomery reaches his potential then they could possibly have one of the best pitchers as well.

Now that I have been through all of the negatives to this trade and why I don't think it was a smart move by the Royals; lets go through some WHAT IF scenarios.

If I would have wrote this post last night, this paragraph would not have been included.  I was too upset, and just pissed off at what Dayton Moore had done.  I was among those on the Royals Twitterverse that were just going crazy tweeting how stupid I thought we were and retweeting other people that were saying the same thing.  After a good nights sleep, I have thought through some things.  This trade maybe, just maybe could turn out to be a decent trade for Royals fans.  Just think, WHAT IF we do indeed advance to the playoffs in the next 2 seasons? WHAT IF James Shields leads us to an ALDS?  How much fun would that be?  Throughout my 20 years of being a Royals fan I have never once seen a playoff team or even sniff contention most years.  Now we have no excuses, we pushed the chips all in.  Dayton can say that these next two seasons aren't "playoffs or bust" seasons but they are.  Royal nation is aching for a winner, and now you made the big move.  It's time for us to make the transition to being a playoff team.  WHAT IF we do make the playoffs in the next two seasons or so, how fun would that be?  I don't know, I have never been a part of it.  However, I'm sure it would feel a heck of a lot better than consistently losing 90-100 games and watching Luke Hochevar take the mound on opening day.

I will end this post with one tweet I said last night, that drew some response from Royals fans.  I said I have been going to Opening Day for the last 8 years or so and not once have I seen an above average SP on the hill for us.  This year I can finally be there on Opening Day when we do have a stud who can beat anyone on any given day.

That is a step in the right direction, like I said I was unbelievably negative about this yesterday.  I still hate the trade but the chips are all in so we as fans might as well go all in too.  "Big Game James," you have a great opportunity to bring a winner to a city starving for one. I truly hope you embrace this challenge.

Playing Devil's Advocate on the Big Trade

At some point in the near future, another Royal Revival writer will put up his thoughts on the trade that sent James Shields, Wade Davis and a Player to be Named Later to Kansas City for Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard. For now, you are stuck with some of my thoughts on the subject.

There are a couple of ways that teams can go about roster construction. For the Tampa Bay Rays, they operate on the mantra of having one eye on the present with one eye on the future. The Rays are pretty unique in this regard, viewing players as assets while constantly trying to stockpile for the long term. The Oakland Athletics are another team that operates in this type of fashion.

The opposite approach is the idea that a team has to go for a window. Teams like the Reds, Brewers, Giants and Cardinals tend to take this type of approach, using prospects as fodder to net Major League pieces in order to contend when the possibility exists. There isn't necessarily a right or wrong way and their are pros and cons to both approaches.

Using an asset compiling approach, the Tampa Bay Rays have been able to average 91 wins per season over the last 5 years. At the same time, the Rays have been criticized for not dealing from their pitching surplus to acquire offense and the Rays have advanced to the World Series just once. The Giants and Cardinals have taken a much different approach. Both of these organizations have seized opportunities and as a result have combined to win the last three World Series titles.

As much as I personally love the Rays way of doing business, I always knew that Dayton Moore was a window guy and as the 2012 off-season has played out it was inevitable that Dayton Moore would deal from his farm system in an attempt to improve in the present.

It appears, that Dayton Moore has marked his window. With the addition of James Shields many have said that Dayton Moore has sent a clear message to the American League that the Royals are ready to contend. Those same individuals rationalize that unless the Royals truly believe that they can contend, why would they pull the trigger on such a move. Of course, what isn't being considered here is that it is just as likely that the Royals front office felt as though they had to contend as opposed to that they would contend.

The ultimate fear in this deal is that Dayton Moore stretched himself because he is feeling the heat. As a result, he sacrificed far too much of the long term in favor of the present. Ultimately, the Royals traded what accounts for 24 seasons of team control for about 7 seasons. This is not to say the deal is clearly a bad one for Kansas City, in fact, I am amazed by the group think of the Royals Twitterverse.

Do I like the trade? No, I do not. However, it is amazing to me how an entire fanbase can achieve such singularity in thought on Twitter. Maybe this is because the trade is so obviously bad for Kansas City. More likely, there is so much pessimism and peer pressure among the Royals fan base that people are afraid to voice opinions contrary to what the so called experts think.

Once again, let me just state that I am not a fan of this trade. If I was in Dayton Moore's shoes, there is no way I would have pulled the trigger. However, I have always thought it is important to see both sides to any trade. For that reason, I am going to play a little devil's advocate for the remainder of this post.

Let's start with the most obvious point. James Shields is a damn good pitcher. In seven professional seasons he has compiled 25.3 fWAR, while logging over 200 innings in six straight seasons and posting a career ERA of 3.89. He will turn 31 in ten days and for three straight seasons has recorded over 8 K/9 while allowing just over 2 BB/9. Oh and by the way, over the past three seasons Shields has witnessed his fly ball percentage drop 9%. In 2012, for the first time in his career he recorded a ground ball percentage over 50%. If this trend continues, Shields represents that rare pitcher that not only has a strong K:BB, but also induces a solid amount of ground balls.

Contrary to what Ken Rosenthal might say, Shields is not an ace. However, there is no reason to be ashamed of having him front your team's rotation. To put it simply, anyone that is attempting to degrade this trade by bashing James Shields is ignorant of what this pitcher has accomplished throughout his career.

The other piece coming to Kansas City is Wade Davis. In his first full two seasons, Wade Davis was a pretty mediocre starting pitcher. In 2012, he threw 70 innings out of the Rays bullpen and saw his K/9 sky rocket to 11.1. The keys to Davis transition to the bullpen were the ways in which his slider and curve ball both became weapons to put away hitters. According to Fangraphs, Davis's slider rated at 4.8 runs above average, while his curve ball registered at 6.7.

The key to this trade, will be Davis's ability to translate those weapons from the bullpen into a starting job. It goes without being said that if Davis can continue to strike out hitters at his 2012 rate, he is clearly a front of the rotation piece. More likely there will be regression. If Davis can simply maintain a K rate around 7-8, while keeping his walks around 3 per 9, the Royals will have found themselves a three starter.

It may be oversimplifying matters, but whether or not Davis can keep a plus slider and curve ball in the rotation may determine if this trade is a long term win or loss for Kansas City. Davis is currently signed to guaranteed money in in 2013 and 2014 at $2.8 and $4.8 million respectively. He then has team options for $7 million, $8 million, and $10 million. Yes, the Royals have five years of team control on Davis. However, unless he can be a valuable member of the rotation, his price tag will be too high to warrant the exercising of those options.

Finally, let's get into the prospects involved. What is unfortunate, is that each of these four pieces are good prospects and it isn't hard to imagine each of them making Kansas City regret the deal on their own merit. However, there is also an overvaluation of prospects in baseball today.

According to some reports, many Royals officials view Myers as more of a Nick Markakis type than a Ryan Braun type. Also, there is a reasoning that it is much easier to find production in right field than it is to find front of the rotation pitchers. I expect Myers to have a very strong career, but it isn't a lock that he is going to be a superstar.

I've actually grown a bit bored with Jake Odorizzi and according to some the Royals don't view him in the same class of prospects as Kyle Zimmer or Yordano Ventura. In fact, several recent scouting reports slot him in as a 3/4 type, rather than the 2 starter that many of us were hoping for. Once again, I like Odorizzi. I think he is going to be a valuable piece in a big league rotation, but the upside isn't what we once thought it was. His fastball is straight and he currently is lacking an out pitch to make him a front end guy at the Major League level.

Mike Montgomery might be the most interesting piece of this entire trade. I can't wait to see if Tampa is able to bring out some of that promise. I am already preparing myself for Montgomery's breakout campaign. Royals fans will complain and rightly so, but at this point it is hard to imagine him ever taking this sort of step in the Royals organization.

Finally, there is Patrick Leonard. Leonard has excellent power and JJ Cooper even pinned him as a guy to watch moving forward for the Royals system. Ultimately, he is four years away and it makes sense to include him to get a deal like this done.

There is a good chance that the Kansas City Royals will rue the day when this trade was conducted. Myers could become a superstar, Odorizzi could throw 200 innings annually, and Montgomery could find that potential. Of course, there is also the chance that Myers isn't the superstar we all hoped, that Odorizzi doesn't have the stuff to be a mid rotation type, and that Montgomery will never live up to his once awesome potential.

Ultimately, even if the former of those things happen, there is no reason this trade can't be a win-win for both parties. The Royals haven't made the playoffs since 1985. If, by chance, the Royals do make the playoffs in 2013, should we complain? Does that make the trade a win for Kansas City?

This trade may have literally made me sick, but I've been a Royals fan for twenty years. Never in my life has Kauffman Stadium hosted playoff baseball. It is natural for Royals fans to critique moves. Every fan base should do it and it is irresponsible to not consider the implications of transactions, even if they make the current team better.

With that being said, I can't help but imagine James Shields toeing the rubber on Opening Day and I long for the summer when the Royals are actually playing meaningful games in August and dare I say September. I always attempt to evaluate moves from an analytical perspective, but first and foremost I am a fan, damn it. This trade may be incredibly costly to the Royals future, but they believe in a window and for the first time in my life they aren't just paying lip service to winning now.

Building Depth in the Rotation

"Hopefully, Odorizzi, Smith and Adock are all pitching at Omaha when the season starts." -Royals Club Official

I don't know about you, but this is exactly the kind of quotation I was looking to hear heading into the offseason. I was pretty clear in my last post, that I believe it would be fantastic for the depth of the rotation if the three aforementioned starters began the season in Omaha. It is good to hear that at least one person in the Royals front office shares a similar sentiment.

This is a stark difference than in the past, when Dayton Moore and company were hesitant to block the paths of Major League ready youngsters. Last offseason, it appeared that Edwin Jackson was a perfect fit on a one year deal to bolster a rotation that was clearly going to be a team weakness. Instead, Dayton Moore stood by what he had, stating that they didn't want to take away any spots that could be used for evaluation. Hopefully heading into the 2013 season, we can put aside the notion that we are going to make it through the season with just five starters.

So if the Royals achieve their goal, how many starters will they need to acquire? Right now, they've got Bruce Chen, Luis Mendoza, and Luke Hochevar. If they keep Hochevar, they'll need to acquire two starters. If they cut Hochevar, they'll need three. I've said before that I believe the latter is the optimum route if you are serious about turning around this rotation.

The problem is that the Royals may not feel comfortable cutting Hochevar knowing that they need to fill three spots in the rotation. As easy as we like to believe that may be, it is no small task for any front office. Not to mention, the money involved may be too much. If this is the case, the Royals may feel they have to keep Hochevar in order to have the necessary depth to start the three aforementioned pitchers in Omaha. Obviously, most of us want them to find a way to fill three spots in the rotation so that Hochevar may be cut, while building depth. Let's hope the Royals can find a way to make us happy.

Looking Ahead: The Rotation

Unfortunately, we are 40 games into the season and the Royals sit just 16-24. It doesn't take an astute observer to point out that the major flaw of this team and largest hindrance on future optimism has been its rotation. So what are we looking at to open 2013? Can the rotation at least be average? 

Potential Rotation Members Returning:

• Luke Hochevar
• Felipe Paulino
• Bruce Chen
• Danny Duffy* (Won't be back until June at the earliest.)

If you are still a believer in Hochevar, the Royals are two starters short, if not Kansas City will need to fill three spots. What the Royals do with these two openings will be critical, if they play it safe as they did last off season, an average rotation is likely a pipe dream. But let's keep in mind that the Royals may not necessarily have to fill all the open spots via free agency. So who could be ready from the farm?

• Mike Montgomery- With 35 starts in AAA, it'll just take a few dominate starts for Montgomery to break into the majors. Considering he has about 20 starts left in this season, he'll likely be ready to bust in next season. (We hope.)
• Will Smith- People tend to forget about Smith, because the upside just isn't as high for the former Angels farmhand. But the Royals feel very strongly that he has a near Major League arm and that eventually he could hold down a spot at the back of the rotation.
• Jake Odorizzi- Having proven himself in AA, he has the remainder of the summer to do the same in Omaha. He may not open in Kansas City next season, but there's a good chance he'll be in the mix to do so. 

(I've chosen not to include either Chris Dwyer or John Lamb because both have yet to prove themselves in AA. They could easily break into the Majors at some point in 2013, but we're looking at what the rotation could be to open the season.)

There's another guy that should be given the chance to start in 2013. The Royals paid a lot of lip service to Aaron Crow in the rotation entering 2012, but when Joakim Soria lost his season to Tommy John, the Royals felt Crow was needed to much in the bullpen. Considering the way the rotation has gone thus far, come mid-August Crow absolutely should be given the opportunity to start every fifth day. If Crow pitches even average in that month and a half, he should be given a rotation spot entering 2013.

So there's seven possibilities heading into 2013. If two out of Montgomery, Odorizzi, and Crow show they are ready to hold down rotation spots the Royals rotation will already receive an upgrade. Sure there would be some growing pains, but the talent and upside would be there. 

I also find it very unlikely that the front office would keep their hands out of free agency should the rotation continue to be as bad as it has been thus far. Fortunately for Kansas City, the upcoming free agent crop appears to be strong on the pitching side of things. The most intriguing name of the group for most of us is Zack Greinke. Personally, I expect him to be priced way out of the Royals range.

Another name to keep an eye on would be Kansas City's own and Missouri State prospect Shaun Marcum. If the Royals were able to net any hometown discount at all he would make a ton of sense. In seven seasons he boasts a career 3.74 ERA with a career K/BB of 2.64. 

Obviously, the road bump that Mike Montgomery has encountered is nerve racking. Clearly, the current rotation is a cause for concern. However, Chen continues to defy odds and it isn't hard to imagine him at least being a serviceable back end guy in 2013. Paulino could be the best starter on the roster. Personally, I could see him as a 2 or 3 on an average staff. If the Royals go get a free agent the Royals will have a make shift 1 (albeit most likely not an ace).

Finally, out of Luke Hochevar, Mike Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi, Nate Adcock and Will Smith, you need two to be the 3 and 4 starters. Obviously, several of the aforementioned guys offer more upside than the Royals have had in past rotations. Oh, and don't forget Danny Duffy will be back in June and John Lamb, Chris Dwyer, Jason Adam, and Yordano Ventura could be knocking at the door soon after. 

The Royals don't necessarily need to trade for a front end starter. The possibility exists that the rotation could be stronger next year than this year simply by giving the right guys the opportunity. I'd prefer to see the Royals take a more aggressive approach. There are free agents that would make sense, that could round out the front end. There's no reason to sell out for the ace, if the Kansas City's in contention next July, maybe then it will be time.

Prospect Countdown: #4 Jake Odorizzi

#4 Jake Odorizzi


Age: 22
Position: RHP
Height: 6-2
Weight: 185
Acquired: Via trade with Milwaukee
From: Breese, IL




Jake Odorizzi was the 32nd overall draft choice by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 2008 draft. Very early in his career he drew some comparisons to Zack Greinke, due to his high school pitching numbers, his athleticism, and the fact that he may have been a decent prospect as a shortstop as well. Just a couple years later, Odorizzi would find himself heading to Kansas City in a trade that would send Zack Greinke to Milwaukee.

The debate can be made about which pieces in the trade were the most critical for the Royals to obtain. Most likely Jeffries was the fourth piece, considering he was originally listed as a player to be named. However, at this point it would appear that the real gem of the deal is Jake Odorizzi, who has ranked in Baseball America's top 100 in each of the last two seasons.

Odorizzi features an excellent fastball that sits in the low 90s, but can be dialed up to 95-96 when the need arises. The fastball features strong movement, with sinking action. Odorizzi also throws a change, slider, and curveball, each of which project as average offerings. Because none of his secondary offering will likely develop into a plus pitch, Odorizzi's upside is likely that of a #3. If things break right though, and one pitch comes along more than expected, that upside could rise to a #2.

At the moment Odorizzi's biggest concern is his propensity to allow the long ball. In Northwest Arkansas, Odorizzi allowed 1.7 HR/9. Just for reference, the Texas League average was 0.94 HR/9. According to Baseball America, Odorizzi's problem is that he has trouble locating his fastball down in the zone, this is something that must be improved on before he gets a big league shot.

Not only does Odorizzi allow a ton of homers, but he also gets very few ground balls. His 33% ground ball percentage in 2011, is a bit surprising after reading that Odorizzi's fastball gets good sinking action. If he can't improve his ground ball percentage it will be imperative that he keep his K:BB very high, somewhere over 3, in order for him to find success. Of course, if you are going to be a fly ball pitcher, Kauffman Stadium is a good park to call home.

Jake Odorizzi will open 2012 in Northwest Arkansas, but he could reach the Major Leagues by season's end.

Picture taken from MiLB.com

Winter Meetings: Day 1 Round Up

So here are some quick hits of the Royals rumors today:

1. Royals are one of five teams interested in Carlos Guillen. This would have to come real cheap, and since Guillen wouldn't even be a viable back up for Escobar, I'm just not sure how this fits. Looking at the market, I'm beginning to think that Navarro presents the best blend of versatility and bat skill for our bench. It just becomes a matter of how important for the organization to have him playing everyday.

2. Royals are dangling Soria and Holland for pitching, but are asking for a lot. The Royals have every right to be asking for a lot, even considering last season, Soria has been one of the top closers in baseball and still has an incredibly favorable contract. Holland of course is under team control for five more seasons after dominating in 2011.

3. Royals are aggressively pursuing starting pitching and are talking with the Athletics about Gio Gonzalez. I haven't heard of any specific names from the Royals end, but I would imagine the Athletics are demanding a lot in return. For me my interest in Gio hinges on the Athletics demand. I don't include Myers, but a package involving one of either Odorizzi or Montgomery, Colon and a lower level guy like Eibner, Bonifacio, Ventura, Yambati, or Adam would make sense to me, but I'd imagine wouldn't for the Athletics.

4. Royals have also kicked tires on Jeremy Guthrie. As is case with everyone greatly depends on cost. I think Guthrie's numbers would improve should he be dealt to Kansas City, however, with a cursory glance over his numbers I'm not convinced we'd be adding anything more than a #3. Quite frankly we've got plenty of potential #3s.

5. Royals have scouted Cuban Yoenis Cespedes. To be clear, Dayton Moore basically said he would likely fall way out of the Royals price range, but there is a precedent for the Royals shocking the industry on the Cuban market. If the Royals do love Cespedes, and are concerned with Cain... well... yeah, I'd still be shocked if we landed Cespedes.

6. The Royals and Rays have discussed Shields, with Rays seeking a return of Soria, Myers, and Colon. In trades for guys like Shields, teams typically have to give up a centerpiece, quality player, and one or two complimentary pieces. My problem with this trade is that the Royals would be giving up too much. Soria is an elite closer on a team friendly deal, Myers is a blue chip prospect, and Christian Colon was the #4 overall selection in the 2010 draft. But don't forget, it is rare for teams to actually get the haul that they initially demand. Just because the Rays are seeking that package, doesn't mean that the Royals would have give up that to obtain Big Game James. We'll just have to wait and see.

One Season Post Greinke

Yesterday morning I received the following text from a friend and fellow Royals' diehard:

"Now that the Brewers are in the NLCS and Zack Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt are doing well, would you reassess the trade? Jeremy Jeffress and Lorenzo Cain hardly saw time and Alcides Escobar is really all we had to show for it."

I told my friend that instead of attempting to answer this question in a text, I would reply to him in the form of a blog post, so here we go.

Before saying anything else, at the time of the trade I commented that there is no way Yuniesky Betancourt should be the starting shortstop for a team expecting to win rings. Now though, the Brewers are doing everything they can to prove me wrong. Betanourt, despite posting a .252/.271/.381 line, has retained the starting shortstop job throughout the season.

In the playoffs Betancourt has upped that line to .278/.316/.444 and has came up with a couple of timely hits. With that being said I don't believe that Betancourt's line in any way could make this trade look worse from a Royals perspective. The fact that the Brewers are in the NLCS seems to have come in spite of Yuniesky Betancourt not as a result of his performance.

Zack Greinke on the other has been huge in the Brewers' magical run this season. His era is 3.83 and he has a 16-6 record. But looking even closer he has posted the highest K rate of his career at 10.54, with a walk rate of just 2.36. His xFIP is 2.56 and it wouldn't be hard to make the argument that this is the best season of his career outside of 2009.

Really though Greinke is doing exactly what we expected him to do this season, dominate. Well until the postseason, where he has had trouble staying low in the zone and has become a bit home run prone.

So what about for the Royals? As my friend stated Jeffress and Cain hardly saw time. This is true. Jeffress's stock definitely took a hit as he proved ineffective in the Major League pen and after transitioning to the rotation in Northwest Arkansas saw his control totally fall apart.

Jeffress's stuff is still there and I expect him to refine his command enough to be a useful piece in a Big League pen. However, his season was definitely a big disappointment.

Cain on the other hand did nothing to cause his stock to drop. He didn't receive hardly any big league time, because of the unexpectedly outstanding play of Melky Cabrera, not because he under performed.

In fact, with another season in the books I'm much more excited about Lorenzo Cain then I was at the time of the trade. Reports are his defense was absolutely spectacular in Omaha, all while hitting .312/.380/.497 with 16 home runs and 16 steals.

The outfield's performance in 2011 was obviously a huge plus for the Royals. They now have four viable solutions entering 2012. Should they trade Cabrera, Cain can step in and if they don't they can have depth while also controlling inventory and pushing Cain's arbitration and free agency back another season.

My friend is correct in stating that Alcides Escobar was all we had to show for the trade in 2011. Escobar was excellent defensively and thanks to an incredibly hot streak in the middle of the season, was passable on the offensive side of things. Moving forward Escobar has provided the Royals with at least a temporary solution at short stop and if the offense can continue to progress he could be a cornerstone.

Of course there is one more piece to this trade that has been totally forgotten here. This isn't the first time that I have discussed this trade with a friend and they have forgotten about the Royals' fourth piece: Jake Odorizzi.

Out of all the players involved in the trade, Odorizzi raised his stock more than anyone in 2011. If he can fix his problem with elevating his pitches in the zone he will be a front of the rotation guy in short order. Odorizzi is on the short list of prospects that can be argued for the top spot in the system.

At the time of the trade I believed that it could truly work out great for both parties. It was obvious the Royals HAD to move Greinke. Shelving a pitch in mid-August, threatening to no show for Spring Training, and who knows what else behind close doors. He had to be moved.

The trade was made by the Brewers to better contend in 2011 and 2012. The Trade was made by the Royals to better contend in 2013 and on. Obviously the Brewers should look like they have won the deal after 2011. But nothing that happened in 2011 would suggest that the deal is any worse for the Royals moving forward.

Major League Baseball trades are designed to be wins for both parties. It isn't fantasy football when one guy/girl is most likely getting ripped off when the deal occurs. Just because the trade has worked out awesomely for the Brewers, doesn't mean that it can't wind up being a win for Kansas City as well. It is simply way to early to tell. For now though, the trade looks just as good from Kansas City's perspective as it did when it was completed.

Wilmington Blue Rocks Preview

This is the final preview for the full season clubs. Wilmington should have a stacked rotation, but the position prospects aren't on the same level as they are at Northwest Arkansas or Omaha.

Rotation:

• Noel Arguelles- Arguelles will be one of the most closely monitor players in the system in 2011. He makes he organization debut on April 11. He is on the 40 man, and with one season already lost he should be pushed along quickly, while the Royals keep an eye on his workload.


• Justin Marks- Marks came over in the DeJesus trade, he needs to rebuild his stock for the trade to be a win for the Royals.


• Tim Melville- When a system breaks out like the Royals' did in 2010, some guys will be pushed out of the limelight. Melville is one of those guys. His stuff is still strong and his numbers suggest some bad luck in 2010. I expect Melville's breakout to come this year.


• Jake Odorizzi- Odorizzi came over in the Greinke trade and for this reason there will be an enormous pressure on him to perform. Hopefully the talent in the organization can alleviate some of that this season.


• Elisaul Pimentel- Pimentel posted some impressive strikeout numbers a year ago in the Midwest League, let's see if he can carry that success to Carolina.


• Tyler Sample- I am going to include him here, but I expect he will be moved to the bullpen at some point this season. Sample needs to repeat his delivery and improve on his control.

Bullpen:

• Manuaris Baez- Baez has been an organizational warrior for Kansas City and he's a good guy to have on a young Blue Rock staff.


• Kevin Chapman- Chapman has a big time, and has future lefty set up man written all over him.


• Ryan Dennick- Looks like a filler to me.


• Glenn Gibson- Never heard of him. Edit: Will begin season on DL.


• Kelvin Herrera- Love his arm, need to see him stay healthy. Rumors out of camp are that his fastball is touching 97 from the pen.


• Brendan Lafferty- Great moustache.


• Michael Mariott- Could get some time in the rotation for Wilmington, was the ace of the Nebraska staff a year ago and pitched well in his first year in professional ball.


• Bryan Paukovitis- Awesome last name, big frame but doesn't throw as hard as you would expect. He is even farther removed from Tommy John so maybe his velocity will be up a bit, especially out of the pen.


• Julio Cesar Pimentel- Has pitched in 9 innings in the last two seasons, hopefully a move to the pen can salvage his career. Edit: Will primarily serve as mentor to Arguelles.

Catchers:

• Jose Bonilla- Bonilla used to be a decent prospect for the Royals, but he hasn't hit at all in full season ball. He'll get a promotion to Wilmington this season and hopefully he can take a page out of Salvador Perez's book.


• Juan Graterol- At one point in time I elected to rate Graterol ahead of Perez and Bonilla on my prospect list. I am ashamed. However, in my defense I hadn't been able to read much about their defense and Graterol had at least put up a solid batting average as a pro.

Infielders:

• Deivy Batista- As many suspected Batista's power in 2009 was a mirage.


• Adam Frost- Frost does it all, great utility guy for a low level club.


• Joey Lewis-Lewis displayed good power during his collegiate career and with the look of Wilmington's office he needs to do more with the bat.


• Alex McClure- McClure has a good glove but like the rest of the offense he has to pick up his offense for Wilmington to be competitive.


• Rey Navarro- Good glove shortstop, but hasn't hit nearly enough to be taken seriously.


• John Whittleman- Royals needed a body to play first in Wilmington and wound up with former Texas Leaguer John Whittleman.

Outfielders:

• Tim Ferguson- Ferguson averaged over a K per game last season in Idaho Falls. He'll need to vastly improve on this aspect of his game to be a solid prospect.


• Nicholas Francis- Francis best impact bat for the Blue Rocks in 2011. He needs another big year for the Blue Rocks offense to have any punch.


• Whit Merrifield- Thanks to Greg Schaum's reports I know that many in the orgaization view Merrifield as a future big league utility man. For this reason he should get time in the infield about once per week.


• Adrian Ortiz- Speedy outfielder, if he can improve his plate discipline he would be a much stronger prospect. Edit: Will begin season on DL.


• Carlo Testa- Testa was one of the few bright spots for the Burlington Bees last season when he put up a Lough-esque extra base line of 24 doubles, 14 triples, and 12 homers.

Prospect Countdown: 10-6

10. Jeremy Jeffress RHP

By now we all know several things about Jeremy Jeffress. First, he came as part of the Greinke to Milwaukee deal. Second, he has had to serve a couple of suspensions due to recreational drug use. Third, Jeffress throws gas.

Upon acquiring Jeffress the Royals elected to use him strictly as a reliever, continuing on a decision the Brewers made with him last summer. This is definitely a good move. In the pen Jeffress stuff can play up even more and his "80" fastball can be used in the late innings to render hitters obsolete.

Jeffress also has a strong slider that sits between 78-83 mph. His changeup still needs a lot of work but as a late inning reliever it won't be crucial to his success that this pitch develops. Given the strength of his triple digit fastball his slider should be plenty to throw hitters off balance in the late innings.

Jeffress could be the closer of the future for Kansas City and could take the reins from Joakim Soria when his time in Kansas City comes to pass. However, that could still be several years away so the Jeffress will have plenty of time to get acclimated to late inning, high-leverage situations. He could be a Joel Zamaya type for Kansas City and along with Soria could form a vicious two-headed monster at the end of games as soon as this season begins.

Jeffress will likely begin the year in the big league pen, and as the season progress could be pushed into higher leverage situations. If Tejeda is dealt at the deadline like I expect, Jeffress is a prime candidate to become the right-handed set-up man.

9. Christian Colon SS

The Royals have made a living drafting right behind the consensus and in the 2010 draft this was no different. Heading into draft day the top three were very clearly Bryce Harper, Jameson Taillon, and Manny Machado. The Royals picked 4th and many believed that prospects 4-40 could go in any order and be easily justified. The Royals elected to go with the guy I pinned as my choice roughly six months before the selection was made: Christian Colon.

Christian Colon immediately strengthened my good feeling regarding the pick when he signed for the MLB slot recommendation so that he could start his pro career. Due to this enthusiasm Colon was able to play in sixty games for Wilmington in 2010, which puts him ahead of the curve right from the start.

Colon's numbers weren't awe-inspiring in his debut but they were strong enough to make me extremely confident in his future. Colon has solid tools across the board. He could find his home run totals in the 10-15 range and the same could be said for his stolen base numbers. He should post a strong average throughout his career and his hit tool is obviously his best.

Many have compared Colon's floor to that of Placido Polanco and some have even thrown out Derek Jeter comparisons. Colon will probably fall somewhere in the middle and be a solid contributor with a long career, but never being a superstar. Colon can speak both Spanish and English and scouts rave about his leadership qualities.

With the acquisition of Alcides Escobar many expect Colon to shift over to second. However, the Royals are going to continue to develop him as a shortstop at least for the short term. Colon's range and arm have both been questioned, but the organization believes that his fundamentals are strong enough to be an adaquate fielding shortstop. If Escobar can hit, then Colon will eventually shift to second and be an above average fielder from the right side of the diamond.

Colon should begin the season in Northwest Arkansas and along with a top notch rotation and mega prospect Wil Myers they should push for a second Texas League title.

8. Jake Odorizzi RHP

Like Jeffress, Odorizzi came to Kansas City as a part of the package Kansas City received for Zack Greinke. Ironically some scouts have stated that Odorizzi could be a lesser version of Greinke at some point down the road. Odorizzi ranked as the top prospect with his former club. However, he comes in at just number eight on the Royal Revival Prospect Countdown.

Odorizzi was drafted in the supplemental round of the 2008 draft and many in the game regarded him as the top prep pitcher available. Odorizzi's reminds me a bit of Kansas' City's Tim Melville as a top right handed high school talent that isn't far into his development. Unlike Melville, Odorizzi has not yet tasted high A competition due to the Brewers conservative approach with him.

Odorizzi pitches out of a 3/4 arm slot and displays a fastball that sits in the low 90s, a slider in the high 70s, a curve in the mid 70s and a changeup that sits in the lows 80s. All of his secondary pitches need to show improvement, but scouts believe his curve could develop into an above average pitch.

Odorizzi may have the highest upside out of all the players the Royals received for Greinke. He could develop into a frontline starter and provide the Royals a right handed anchor for a predominately left-handed rotation. Odorizzi should begin the season in Wilmington and could filter up to Northwest Arkansas for the second half depending on his numbers and what happens ahead of him.

7. Chris Dwyer LHP





Now is the time that we reach what has been dubbed by some as the "Sinister Seven" this final group offers three future middle of the order superstar caliber bats and four southpaws with front of the rotation potential. The system is considered strong for its depth of prospects at all positions. However, the next seven prospects give Kansas City what some believe to be the best farm system in the history of system rankings.

Chris Dwyer is just another guy that shouldn't be a Royal. He was drafted in the fourth round of the 2009 draft. He is a blend of a scout's choice and an overslot bonus baby. He was a rare draft eligible freshman and even though his numbers at Clemson weren't great, the Royals front office loved what they say and put the dollar sign on the muscle of $1.45 million.

Dwyer has a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90s and a changeup that he has greatly improved since the time he was drafted it. But it is his 12-6, hammer curveball that turns him into an elite prospect. The pitch was rated by prospect guru John Sickels as the top curve among prospects. Coming from the same release point as his fastball it is a true out pitch in every sense of the word.

Injury precautions limited Dwyer's workload upon his promotion to the Texas League last season. But there are no concerns going forward. He should begin 2011 in one of the best minor league rotations in recent memory for the Northwest Arkansas Naturals.

6. Danny Duffy LHP

Duffy gave Royals nation a scare a year ago when he abruptly left the game to sort his life priorities. After some time off he decided that baseball was important and he returned to the game. After the Royals rebuilt his arm strength he found himself in the Naturals' rotation where he continued to post dominating minor league results and show an uptick in velocity.

Duffy has a career k rate of 10.5 and a career walk rate of 2.9. He is one of the most advanced arms in the system and was even granted an opportunity to make the big league club out of Spring Training. Duffy didn't take advantage of this and at times he seemed timid, displaying poor command. He also had flashes of brilliance with six strikeouts versus just five hits allowed in eight innings pitched.

Duffy has a fastball that has reached 97 mph, but works best when he is in the low or mid 90s. He also has a changeup that should be an above average offering and a curveball that could be scrapped for a slider that will fit better with his cross fire delivery.

Duffy will begin the season in the Northwest Arkansas Naturals rotation and with a strong season should find time in Kansas City by season's end.

Follow Royal Revival on Twitter!