Theory on the Royals "Interest" in O'Day & Soria

The hot stove is just getting warmed up, but we've already heard on several occasions that the Royals are interested in Darren O'Day and Joakim Soria. If you are like me then you read this and immediately brushed it off as the club doing their due diligence. Before I go any further, I want to be clear that I do believe that is the case. However, let's take a moment and allow ourselves to believe that the Royals are seriously considering adding Soria or O'Day to the back end of their bullpen.

O'Day has been one of the very best relievers in all of baseball over the last four seasons and in the last two seasons Soria has returned to his pre-2012 form. For the Royals, either pitcher would immediately be slotted into the back of the bullpen and join the triumvirate of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, and Luke Hochevar. It is in large part due to this that the acquisition of either feels more like overkill and a waste of resources in regards to the 2016 team.

What if the Royals intention to pursue O'Day or Soria isn't because they want to make their back of the bullpen 4 deep? What if it is because they are looking to flip one of HHD for an outfielder, second baseman, or starting pitcher. It is no secret that this year's free agent market is exceptionally shallow in the relief pitching department. If the Royals could land O'Day or Soria, not only would it lessen the blow should they move Davis, Herrera, or Hochevar, but it would also help to corner the relief market. This would allow the Royals even more negotiating power.

If the Royals were to pursue this sign a relief pitcher, trade a relief pitcher then who would be most likely to be moved? Luke Hochevar would be the least painful to part with. He is owed $5.5 million in 2016 and then has a $7 million mutual option for 2017. Unfortunately, Hochevar is the least painful for a reason. His peripherals were very strong in 2015 and he is said to have closer stuff, but the 3.73 ERA and 4.00 WHIP don't scream closer.

Kelvin Herrera will make approximately $2.5 million in 2016 and has three more years of control before he hits free agency. This and his career 2.60 ERA would make him an extremely valuable commodity on the trade market. I think most in the industry would be perfectly fine with handing the ball to Herrera to get the final three outs of the game.

Wade Davis is owed $8 million for 2016, and has a team option of $10 million for the 2017 season. For arguably the top reliever in baseball this is a bargain. If the Royals signed O'Day to a two year $16 million contract, would it make sense to then slide him into the closer role and trade Davis? Royal Revival's sources have told us that last offseason the Royals were close to moving Davis for a starting pitcher.

Personally, I think this strategy makes sense. Obviously, there is risk that by dealing from a strength you could damage it to a point where it is no longer a strength. We also know that relief pitching is one of the most fickle things in all of baseball. The shelf life for top tier relievers typically isn't long. We were reminded of that just a couple of months ago by Greg Holland. It was rumored that Dayton Moore had opportunities to move Soria for quality packages prior to his injury. It bares to reason, that the Royals likely could have netter a good haul for Holland last offseason. In both cases Dayton Moore held on to his chips too long. Maybe this go around it will be different.

As far as what the Royals could acquire. I think there is good reason to believe that for either Davis or Herrera the Royals would be looking for a piece that they could immediately slide into the back of the rotation or a corner outfield spot. In addition to that they likely could get a prospect of decent value as well. As a long time Jackie Bradley Jr. fan, I'd love to see the Royals match up with Boston to bring the former 1st round pick to Kansas City. Boston is said to be in the market for back end help and there has been rumors that they'd move Bradley Jr or Rusney Castillo plus to get Aroldis Chapman.

As I said when I started this post, I don't believe the Royals will take this route. I'm not even sure that they should take this route. However, I think it is interesting food for thought. If the Royals were to sign O'Day then trade Wade Davis to Boston for Bradley Jr. plus a prospect, they would be able to fill one of their holes without dipping into their free agent budget. Of course, if Hochevar was enough to grab Bradley Jr. from Boston, I'd jump on that deal in a heartbeat.

Edit: Approximately 1 hour after the writing of this post, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com said that Jackie Bradley has generated trade interest from the Royals and Cubs.

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Wildcard Wade Wants to Start

After the signing of Bruce Chen, I don't think I was alone in assuming that the final rotation spot would come down to either Yordano Ventura or Danny Duffy. Of course, I knew that a few other names would be thrown out as candidates: Brad Penny, Chris Dwyer, Luke Hochevar, Wade Davis, and Kyle Zimmer. Despite most of us believing that Hochevar and Davis will figure in as bullpen components, both are making buzz about their focus on reclaiming roles in the rotation. On Friday, Fox Sports writer Jeffrey Flanagan brought us some quotes from Davis on the subject. 

"I'm definitely going in to start. I hope I get the opportunity to pitch and help this team win a lot of ballgames. I'm ready, probably more so than I ever have been."

When Wade Davis was acquired in conjunction with James Shields last winter, many pointed to Davis as the wild card of the deal. Defendants of the trade also were quick to cite Wildcard Wade's contract status when the Shields portion of the deal was criticized due to his two years of control. Unlike Shields, Davis came with two guaranteed seasons, plus three team options for 2015-17.

The problem with these options is that they really are only economically viable if Davis is logging his innings as a member of the team's rotation. It is likely for this reason that the Royals were so patient with Davis as a starter in 2013. Despite posting a 5.67 ERA as a starter, Davis was somehow able to hold down a rotation spot for 24 starts, and was not moved to relief duty until September.

There is a very slight possibility that Davis wasn't as bad in 2013, as his numbers would indicate. Afterall, his FIP was just 4.18, which compares quite favorably to his 5.32 ERA. This discrepancy largely stems from his .361 BABIP against. However, when plugging in his batted ball frequencies to an expected BABIP calculator, you'll find that the number isn't that much different than the BABIP that was actually posted against him. This is mainly due to opponents posting a 27.5% LD% against the former Rays farmhand. Fangraphs' tERA, which estimates ERA with batted ball data, says that his ERA should have been 5.42.

According to Troy Renck, beat writer for the Denver Post, the Royals and Rockies were discussing a deal that would have sent Wade Davis to Colorado in exchange for outfielder Dexter Fowler. If this is true then the Royals probably were very open to moving Davis throughout the offseason. Unfortunately, they were unable to find a match for a trade. Since it is hard to imagine the Royals contending and going through the Wade Davis starter experience again, it is unlikely that reliever Wade Davis will justify a $7 million option for 2015.

When the Royals acquired Wildcard Wade they likely hoped that they were acquiring a solid mid rotation starter for the next five seasons. If Davis could have been this it would have greatly helped to justify the Wil Myers trade. Regrettably, the former 3rd round pick has failed to transition into a useful rotation piece and as a result a year from now, the Royals will likely have only one compensation draft pick to show for their blue chip prospect.

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Can Luke Hochevar and Jeff Francoeur be worth the money?

The Kansas City Royals will have a payroll of roughly 80 million in 2013.  The acquisitions of James Shields, Ervin Santana, along with the 3 yr/ 25 mill deal given to Jeremy Guthrie are the reason that KC has seen a significant payroll rise from the just over 60 million they shelled out last season.  Another 11.4 million dollars in 2013 is going to the duo of Luke Hochevar (4.65 mil) and Jeff Francoeur (6.75 mil).  After doing some crude research pertaining to WAR and having a dollar value per win, the past two years look to be right around 4.5 million dollars per win.  With this in mind, Luke Hochevar would have to be worth one win with Francoeur’s game giving him a WAR right around 1.5.  Both these figures are widely considered to be bad deals for the Royals, but I want to know if there a chance that both these players can play up to the level of their salary in 2013?

The Royals could have made the decision to non-tender Hochevar and cut ties with the former #1 overall pick, but they instead decided to offer him arbitration.  As a result of the signings to get much needed help to the starting rotation, Hochevar quickly lost out in an attempt to earn a rotation spot during spring training and will now start the year as a long reliever/ swing man type player for the Royals.  This role will give him some starts throughout the year it is going to limit the amount of innings he will give the club compared to the 198 in 2011 and 185 over 32 starts last season. 

Since 2008, Hochevar has been between 1.5 and 2.5 WAR while always throwing more than 100 innings during the season.  I think best case scenario sees Hochevar playing a role similar to that of Carlos Villanueva for the Blue Jays over the past two seasons.  This would mean giving Hochevar roughly 35 appearances including 10-12 starts and around 110-120 innings.  I think this is a realistic, yet optimistic, projection. Hochevar managed a 1.5 WAR last season due largely in quantity of innings rather than quality of performance, so it is realistic to see Hochevar’s WAR dip under 1.0 if he does not become a better pitcher than he was last year. 

Becoming a reliever typically helps pitchers become more effective, as they are able to throw harder, see hitters only once, and the manager is better able to put pitchers in situations in which they can succeed.  While most projection systems gave an output based on Hochevar, it is fair to think that Hochevar will stabilize the huge number of home runs he gave up last season but it is hard to say if we will see a rise in strike outs or a dip WHIP, which are necessary if he is going to be effective in any role.  If we see a drop in ERA and FIP to about 4.50, which I think is realistic, the Royals have a player in Hochevar worth about 1-1.5 WAR, or basically just earning his salary but providing little extra output. 

Jeff Francoeur had a forgettable 2012 season.  Widely considered the worst offensive player in 2012, Royals fans still see Frenchie atop the depth chart in right field coming into 2013.  In the final year of his 2 year/ 13.5 contract there is pressure on Francoeur to show both the Royals and the rest of the major leagues that he is skilled enough to provide true value to a major league club.  We saw a .235/.287/.378 AVG/OBP/SLG line with poor base-running and defense (even with his strong arm).  All in all the WAR stat tells us that Jeff Francoeur was about -1.2 wins below a ‘replacement’ player.  With this in mind, it will take some major strides in order for Francoeur to help a team hoping to make the playoffs this season. 

There are enough viable options in the Royals system that I suspect Francoeur to have a shorter leash than last season.  Players like Jerrod Dyson and David Lough should get some starts in place of Francoeur, which really should help his overall value.   That being said, this is a player that has had over 600 plate appearances the past two seasons, but it is possible he plays more.  Francoeur is widely known an effective hitter against left handed pitching, having a .820 career OPS against southpaws compared to .702 versus RHP.  In 2012 these numbers were .695 and .662, respectively.  Even most haters would concede that they expect his numbers to improve, even if ever so slightly.  We should expect about 150 AB’s versus left handed hitters, and KC Royals fans should expect somewhere around his career OPS v LHP (it was .934 in 2011).  Fans should also expect more time on the pine versus righties.

A best case scenario in my mind for 2013 would be for Francoeur to turn into a Jonny Gomes like platoon player.  Gomes has a much different style of play, but provides similar value as a player who mashes vs lefties but can be a liability on the field and the bases.  Gomes provided 2 WAR mostly based on his .974 OPS in 164 at bats versus lefties.  The A’s only gave him 115 at bats versus right handed pitching.  I do not expect to see Francoeur match Gomes numbers from last season, but I think we will see him regain his ability to hit lefties.  Still only 29, it is also possible we will see slight improvements in defense and on the bases compared to 2012.  If used correctly, Francoeur could be a productive player in terms of WAR, but it will probably not add up to a full ‘win’.  

It is not an eye popping conclusion that I came to that Francoeur will most likely not earn his 2013 salary.  He was, however, a 3 WAR player in 2011 during his 20HR/20SB season.  If we would have seen a match in ability (and luck) in 2011 the Royals would have him at a discount.  There is no secret that the Royals have tried to move him, but fans will just have to deal with him for this season.  With Hochevar, the Royals could have let him go during the offseason, but instead decided to keep him around.  I wonder if they did this with the idea that he would be back in the rotation, or if they had an idea of their plan to add enough arms to bounce Hoch to the pen. 

I really have no major problem with these contracts, but it is pretty telling that about ¼ of their salary goes to these two along with new Royal Ervin Santana, another youngish player with some talent and upside, but his 5.16/5.63 ERA/FIP over 178 innings was good for -0.9 WAR in 2012.  The Royals have a ton of young talent on offense and in the pen, and I understand that many fans appreciate the obvious push for a playoff run.  For the Royals sake, let’s hope that these 20 million dollars do not go to waste in 2013.  

Recapping Recent Moves

November 20:

• Chris Volstad, Vin Mazzaro, Adam Moore, Brayan Pena, Clint Robinson, and Derrick Robinson designated for assignment
• Chris Dwyer, Juan Gutierrez, Donnie Joseph, John Lamb, Justin Marks, and Mike Montgomery added to the 40-man roster

Nothing real shocking here. Although, I think many were a bit surprised to see the Brayan Pena era come to an end. As far as the 40-man additions go, Juan Gutierrez is the only individual that I wasn't sure of entering the day. However, it doesn't come as a shock after his numbers in the Venezuelan Winter League (1.13 ERA, with 17 strikeouts in 16 innings). The only player that wasn't protected that could be a big loss for the Royals in the Rule V draft is Robinson Yambati (although, there are conflicted reports regarding his eligibility). Fortunately, with the Royals bullpen depth they won't be devastated if they lose him. 

November 28:

• Clint Robinson and Vin Mazzaro traded to Pittsburgh for Luis Rico and Luis Santos. 

There's no reason to get worked up about this trade. Both Robinson and Mazzaro were on their way out the door regardless of whether a trade was completed or not. At least this way the Royals get back a couple of young arms to fill out one of their Rookie League team's bullpens in 2013. Hopefully, Clint Robinson gets an opportunity to get regular at bats for the Pirates. I've interacted with Clint on multiple occasions and he is absolutely a class act. 

As far as the trade goes, I received this quote from Dayton Moore:

"I don't always make trades, but when I do I prefer Dos Luis."

November 29:

• Royals and Felipe Paulino agree to a one-year deal worth $1.75 million with $250K in possible incentives

I never really bought into the idea that the Royals were actually considering non-tender Paulino, but apparently Felipe's camp did. Paulino made $1.9 million in 2012, and despite his injury issues he was almost assuredly going to receive a bump in salary for 2013. MLB Trade Rumors projected that Paulino would make $2.7 million in 2013 through arbitration. The fact that Dayton Moore was able to convince Paulino to take $1.75 million is pretty incredible. Basically, the Royals floated out the idea that Paulino might be injured and without a job and were able to use that possibility as leverage to strike a deal with Paulino that saved an allegedly cash deprived organization $1 million.

It is for this reason that despite Bob Dutton's recent comments that every Royals official would be surprised by a Luke Hochevar non-tender, I believe there is still a very strong likelihood that he will not be extended an offer. The Royals are obviously hopeful that they can get something out of him via trade, and for that reason they won't to play up the possibility that he won't be a free agent in a few days. Time (24 hours) will tell if this assumption is correct. 

Royals Sign Jeremy Guthrie

The Royals announced on Monday that Jeremy Guthrie would be returning to Kansas City on a three year $25 million deal. The deal is structured in a manner in which Guthrie will be paid $5 million in 2013, $11 million in 2014, and $9 million in 2015.

Naturally among the Royals' Twitterverse, this deal has received everything from praise to an incredible amount of criticism. One thing I think that most everyone can agree on is that a three year commitment is one year too much. However, I'd like to welcome those individuals to 2013, a time when most view inflation on the horizon.

This is not to say that the Royals are necessarily overpaying for Jeremy Guthrie. In fact, I think this contract is pretty well right in line with what Guthrie's value likely is. In fact, it has been noted by several that over the last three seasons Guthrie has been worth $23.8 million. Haters would respond to this by pointing out that Guthrie is on the downhill slope of the aging curve and that it isn't a good assumption to project Guthrie to continue his past performance moving forward.

Typically, I would agree that based on his age regression should be expected. In this instance, I feel differently. I've talked about this a lot in recent weeks, I think Guthrie fits the mold of what kind of pitcher can be excel in Kauffman Stadium. While it was a small sample size (fourteen starts), Guthrie's performance with the Royals evidenced this fact.

Guthrie has always been a fly ball pitcher. As a result of this he has been able to find consistent success in limiting the batting average on balls in play of opposing hitters. Ground balls result in a higher percentage of hits than fly balls. Of course, it goes without being said that fly balls result in a higher percentage of home runs than ground balls. Fortunately, for the first time in Guthrie's career he was able to play in a park that has historically suppressed home runs.

The other two parks that Guthrie has called home were both poor fits as far as Guthrie's pitching style goes. Camden Yards is a bandbox. Coors Field is a mile above sea level. Guthrie of course was a disaster in Coors, but somehow he was able to amass 11.1 fWAR while pitching for the Baltimore Orioles. That is good for 2.2 fWAR per season. If he can continue that for Kansas City, he'll be worth the contract.

Throughout his career, Jeremy Guthrie has been around 5.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and 40% GB%. In Kansas City, Guthrie was able to drop his BB/9 under 2, while maintaining his K/9. There is a reason to expect this improvement to be reality and not sample size induced, due to a change in mechanics that the Royals coaching staff implemented following his arrival in Kansas City.

Interestingly in some research I came across another starter who posted similar peripherals in 2012. This starter recorded 5.9 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 with a 40% GB. This starter was able to pitch all of his home games in a fly ball pitcher's parks. The pitcher's name is Brandon McCarthy and he had a 3.24 ERA in 18 starts while compiling 1.8 fWAR.

Kauffman Stadium isn't the pitcher's park that the Coliseum is, but there's reason to believe that if Guthrie can keep his walk rate under two, it isn't hard to imagine him posting an ERA around 3.50, while logging 200+ innings annually with a fWAR around 3. If Guthrie can do this, it would be silly to complain about paying him $8 million annually.

***On a side note can we stop lumping contracts together and saying things like instead of player X, Y, and Z we could be paying for player A? Just because the Royals screwed up with one contract doesn't mean that every other contract is a bad one. Surely, the Royals blogosphere is smarter.

As I stated earlier, I wish Kansas City could have been brought back on a two year deal. With that being said, I think the timing of the Guthrie deal is important to note. By locking up Guthrie now and acquiring Ervin Santana, they have the necessary security to cut ties with Chris Volstad and Luke Hochevar. The former of these two tasks has already been completed, and I fully expect Hochevar to be non-tendered by the November 30, deadline.

If the Royals wouldn't have completed the deal with Jeremy Guthrie prior to the end of the month, they would have likely felt it necessary to tender Hochevar a contract. Instead, they can now non-tender Hochevar, adding about $5 million to their budget. If they can apply this budget elsewhere that's great, if not the addition of Guthrie gives the Royals enough options entering 2013, should the worst case scenario occur and the Royals not find any other starters between now and Opening Day.

Cutting Hochevar also would allow the Royals some additional financial flexibility. The structure of the Guthrie deal makes a couple of points apparent for me. First, the Royals don't have as much budget room available for 2013, as most of us believe that they should. Second, By back loading the Guthrie deal, the Royals provide themselves with some additional wiggle room to add a third rotation piece.

Another interesting point, is that while the deal is back loaded, it is also structured in a way in which Guthrie will be paid the highest percentage of his earnings in the second year of his contract. This also appears to be a smart approach as with the Royals youth, ideally the young players will continue to get more expensive through arbitration as time goes by. If nothing else, it at least shows a bit of creativity on the part of Dayton Moore and the front office.

Overall, I'm not in love with the Guthrie deal. I feel as though the contract is fair value. It is close enough to where I truly believe it can be argued one way or another if it was a good deal for the club. Personally, I think it is a good deal. People are making a fuss about the Royals pursuit of mediocrity, but yet those individuals aren't proposing any solutions to the problem. I believe that Guthrie is an improvement and I expect him to be solid over the next three years with some small upside due to Kauffman's park factors.

Oh and Jeremy Guthrie, I saw that you were tweeting Brandon McCarthy the other day. Why don't you try to convince him to join you in Kansas City? Talk about how well you two fit into the ballpark and if that statistical stuff falls short, you could always invite him hunting with you and Frenchy.

Building Depth in the Rotation

"Hopefully, Odorizzi, Smith and Adock are all pitching at Omaha when the season starts." -Royals Club Official

I don't know about you, but this is exactly the kind of quotation I was looking to hear heading into the offseason. I was pretty clear in my last post, that I believe it would be fantastic for the depth of the rotation if the three aforementioned starters began the season in Omaha. It is good to hear that at least one person in the Royals front office shares a similar sentiment.

This is a stark difference than in the past, when Dayton Moore and company were hesitant to block the paths of Major League ready youngsters. Last offseason, it appeared that Edwin Jackson was a perfect fit on a one year deal to bolster a rotation that was clearly going to be a team weakness. Instead, Dayton Moore stood by what he had, stating that they didn't want to take away any spots that could be used for evaluation. Hopefully heading into the 2013 season, we can put aside the notion that we are going to make it through the season with just five starters.

So if the Royals achieve their goal, how many starters will they need to acquire? Right now, they've got Bruce Chen, Luis Mendoza, and Luke Hochevar. If they keep Hochevar, they'll need to acquire two starters. If they cut Hochevar, they'll need three. I've said before that I believe the latter is the optimum route if you are serious about turning around this rotation.

The problem is that the Royals may not feel comfortable cutting Hochevar knowing that they need to fill three spots in the rotation. As easy as we like to believe that may be, it is no small task for any front office. Not to mention, the money involved may be too much. If this is the case, the Royals may feel they have to keep Hochevar in order to have the necessary depth to start the three aforementioned pitchers in Omaha. Obviously, most of us want them to find a way to fill three spots in the rotation so that Hochevar may be cut, while building depth. Let's hope the Royals can find a way to make us happy.

Looking Ahead: The Rotation

Unfortunately, we are 40 games into the season and the Royals sit just 16-24. It doesn't take an astute observer to point out that the major flaw of this team and largest hindrance on future optimism has been its rotation. So what are we looking at to open 2013? Can the rotation at least be average? 

Potential Rotation Members Returning:

• Luke Hochevar
• Felipe Paulino
• Bruce Chen
• Danny Duffy* (Won't be back until June at the earliest.)

If you are still a believer in Hochevar, the Royals are two starters short, if not Kansas City will need to fill three spots. What the Royals do with these two openings will be critical, if they play it safe as they did last off season, an average rotation is likely a pipe dream. But let's keep in mind that the Royals may not necessarily have to fill all the open spots via free agency. So who could be ready from the farm?

• Mike Montgomery- With 35 starts in AAA, it'll just take a few dominate starts for Montgomery to break into the majors. Considering he has about 20 starts left in this season, he'll likely be ready to bust in next season. (We hope.)
• Will Smith- People tend to forget about Smith, because the upside just isn't as high for the former Angels farmhand. But the Royals feel very strongly that he has a near Major League arm and that eventually he could hold down a spot at the back of the rotation.
• Jake Odorizzi- Having proven himself in AA, he has the remainder of the summer to do the same in Omaha. He may not open in Kansas City next season, but there's a good chance he'll be in the mix to do so. 

(I've chosen not to include either Chris Dwyer or John Lamb because both have yet to prove themselves in AA. They could easily break into the Majors at some point in 2013, but we're looking at what the rotation could be to open the season.)

There's another guy that should be given the chance to start in 2013. The Royals paid a lot of lip service to Aaron Crow in the rotation entering 2012, but when Joakim Soria lost his season to Tommy John, the Royals felt Crow was needed to much in the bullpen. Considering the way the rotation has gone thus far, come mid-August Crow absolutely should be given the opportunity to start every fifth day. If Crow pitches even average in that month and a half, he should be given a rotation spot entering 2013.

So there's seven possibilities heading into 2013. If two out of Montgomery, Odorizzi, and Crow show they are ready to hold down rotation spots the Royals rotation will already receive an upgrade. Sure there would be some growing pains, but the talent and upside would be there. 

I also find it very unlikely that the front office would keep their hands out of free agency should the rotation continue to be as bad as it has been thus far. Fortunately for Kansas City, the upcoming free agent crop appears to be strong on the pitching side of things. The most intriguing name of the group for most of us is Zack Greinke. Personally, I expect him to be priced way out of the Royals range.

Another name to keep an eye on would be Kansas City's own and Missouri State prospect Shaun Marcum. If the Royals were able to net any hometown discount at all he would make a ton of sense. In seven seasons he boasts a career 3.74 ERA with a career K/BB of 2.64. 

Obviously, the road bump that Mike Montgomery has encountered is nerve racking. Clearly, the current rotation is a cause for concern. However, Chen continues to defy odds and it isn't hard to imagine him at least being a serviceable back end guy in 2013. Paulino could be the best starter on the roster. Personally, I could see him as a 2 or 3 on an average staff. If the Royals go get a free agent the Royals will have a make shift 1 (albeit most likely not an ace).

Finally, out of Luke Hochevar, Mike Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi, Nate Adcock and Will Smith, you need two to be the 3 and 4 starters. Obviously, several of the aforementioned guys offer more upside than the Royals have had in past rotations. Oh, and don't forget Danny Duffy will be back in June and John Lamb, Chris Dwyer, Jason Adam, and Yordano Ventura could be knocking at the door soon after. 

The Royals don't necessarily need to trade for a front end starter. The possibility exists that the rotation could be stronger next year than this year simply by giving the right guys the opportunity. I'd prefer to see the Royals take a more aggressive approach. There are free agents that would make sense, that could round out the front end. There's no reason to sell out for the ace, if the Kansas City's in contention next July, maybe then it will be time.

Pull the Trigger

By now Royals fans are well aware the free agent starter Roy Oswalt is targeting a one year deal at around $8 million. But now there are also rumblings that fellow free agent starter Edwin Jackson has lowered his asking price from 5 years, 65 million all the way down to a one year deal. Let me make this perfectly clear, if the Royals aren't involved on these two starters and they wind up signing for one year deals elsewhere, the Royals will have missed a huge opportunity.

The rumors have been clear that Oswalt is looking to land a one year deal with a contender, something I can totally understand. However, when it comes to professional athletes, I've learned that there is always a dollar figure that can buy them out of their notions of going to a winner, or staying near home, or whatever else for that matter. Not to mention if Oswalt came to Kansas City, I'm sure the top reason he'd give to the press is that the Royals are on the verge of contention and that he wants to be a part of something special in Kansas City.

The Royals have the money to spend in their current budget. The team is right around $60 million for 2012, after being over $70 million in both 2009 and 2010. In fact, there was a time when the Royals payroll was closer to $80 million than 70. Last year the payroll was in the $35-40 million dollar range. So it isn't unrealistic at all to assume that the Royals possess the flexibility that would be necessary to add another starter into the budget. The Royals would likely have to pay more than 'a contender' to lure Oswalt or Jackson in, but ultimately money talks.

In fact, Dayton Moore himself has even stated that the team was looking into acquiring another starter, before ultimately deciding to take the prudent route and saving the final rotation spot for one of the kids. If you believe that the fifth rotation spot belongs to Duffy, Crow, Teaford, or Montgomery, that's fine. But personally I think all of the aforementioned pitchers could use more time in Omaha honing their craft.

The Rays have possibly the best rotation depth in all of baseball. In 2012, there will likely be two starters that don't make the Rays rotation that would be one of the best starters on the Royals roster.Look at the manner in which the Rays have developed their starters. The Rays develop their starters with patience.

There is a belief that pitchers have to make adjustments at the next level. Many Royals fans are of the opinion that Danny Duffy has learned all that he can in Omaha. They would argue that sending him to Omaha to begin 2012 would serve no purpose developmentally. They may be right, I am no expert in pitcher development. However, I would point to the Rays model, which has been pretty effective over the past few seasons. Look how many innings some of their prospects threw in the upper levels, before becoming fixtures in the rotation:

David Price: 109.1

Matt Moore: 155

Matt Garza: 183.1

Alex Cobb: 187

Jeremy Hellickson: 307

Alexander Torres: 323.2

Jeff Niemann: 361

Wade Davis: 399.1

Of course Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, and Alexander Torres could all add more innings in 2012. Also of note is that the starter with the least amount of innings in the upper levels is David Price, who is probably the most advanced college arm ever outside of Stephen Strasburg (Strasburg by the way threw just 66.1 innings in the upper levels). 

Here's a look at where the Royals arms stand in the upper level inning count:

John Lamb: 68

Jake Odorizzi: 68.2

Danny Duffy: 81.2

Aaron Crow: 119.1

Chris Dwyer: 159

Mike Montgomery: 210.1

Everett Teaford: 219.2

The Rays are arguably the best team in professional baseball right now in terms of developing starting pitchers and keeping those pitchers healthy at the Major League level. Thanks to a patient approach that waits for starters to force their hand they have successfully developed a deep starting rotation. As a result of this rotation they have been able to compete in the toughest division in baseball, despite financial restrictions that their rivals don't face.

Like I have said, I'm not an expert on prospect development. I am merely looking at what the best have done and wondering aloud if the Royals would be wise to emulate it. As it stands there is one open rotation spot for 2012. The rotation at this point consists of Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, and Felipe Paulino. If the Royals were to add another starter on a one year deal the benefit could be twofold. 

First, the Royals would strengthen their rotation in the short run. But also Danny Duffy, Aaron Crow, and Mike Montgomery would all be allowed to return to Omaha, where they could continue to develop. At some point a rotation spot will open up as the result of injury or poor performance and then the most deserving of three can get the promotion to Kansas City. Later another spot will open up and perhaps even another. By Opening Day 2013, there will likely be plenty of room in the rotation for all three should they deserve it and the rotation at that point could be a force.

There are also service time benefits of a plan such as this. If Aaron Crow spends some time in the minors his free agency will be pushed back a season. If Mike Montgomery comes up at mid season his free agency and super two status could both be pushed back a season. If Danny Duffy spends a few weeks in Omaha, his Super Two status could be pushed back by a season. 

By adding another starter now the Royals could save themselves millions of dollars in arbitration and even gain some extra team control. I'm sure the Royals are aware of all of this and considering Luis Mendoza is out of options they may have a plan for starting him in the rotation to reach these benefits. Mendoza isn't a bad depth player, but if the Royals are serious about contending he won't open the season in the rotation.

There are two very talented starting pitchers that could be available on one year deals. The benefits of signing one of them could reach far beyond improving the Opening Day rotation. If the division is going to be as tight  as I believe it will be, the addition of either starter could propel the Royals into a tighter race. More wins means staying in contention longer. Staying in contention longer means more ticket sales. More ticket sales mean more money. 

Even if the Royals fall out of contention, both Oswalt and Jackson would be hot commodities on the trade market in July. If they perform as expected they would both be worth a decent prospect in return, and will have already served their value in allowing the Royals pitching prospects more development time. 

If I was sure that the Royals would take their extra financial flexibility in 2012, place it in a bank account and allow it to accumulate interest until Hosmer and Moustakas could be extended I would consider that route. But I can't be sure that the funds would roll over in such a manner. However, if signing Edwin Jackson or Roy Oswalt paid out all of the potential dividends the financial hit it would take to sign them would be minute. 

There is obviously risk involved, but the Royals most glaring weakness is starting pitching and right now there are two starters that could upgrade this staff. If the Royals can grab one of them on a one year deal, well I think I've been pretty clear on potential rewards of that. If the Royals can't afford them, well shame on the Royals for jumping the gun and dishing out $4.5 million to Bruce Chen and another $2 million to Yunieskey Betancourt.

It may not be realistic to expect the Royals to make anymore major moves this offseason. But it isn't unrealistic to believe that they could afford to do so. There's an opportunity, I just hope the Royals pounce. Pull the trigger and let's make the AL Central a two horse race in 2012.

Royals resign Chen

SI's Jon Heyman reports that the Royals have signed Bruce Chen to a two year deal worth $9 million guaranteed, with up to $1 million in incentives and up to $1 million in roster bonuses. I have heard that the report is premature, but I tend to believe it is probably correct.

I have several issues with this signing, the first of which is time. Why are the Royals making this deal with so many pitchers still on the market? Why not wait and see if the market forces Chen or another option to take less than they were hoping for. If the Royals were afraid that Chen would be signed soon, oh well, take the pick and smile.

To me your evaluation of Chen as a pitcher hinges on what type of fan you are. Do you value ERA? Or do you evaluate Chen based on his xFIP? Personally I think that when reviewing a season xFIP doesn't really matter, because luck is part of the game. However, when using one season's statistics to look toward the future I believe the more advanced statistics are way better than the crudeness of ERA.

For the past two seasons Chen has been the top starter to wear a Royals uniform. In that time he has also developed a cult following thanks to the work of Will Ferrell and company. For some fans this alone seems to raise Chen's value, but I digress.

Now in the KC Star Dayton Moore suggested that the club would still like to add two starters. If the team did this they would have a rotation of Hochevar, Sanchez, Chen, Paulino and the free agent. Meaning Duffy could begin the season in Omaha to ensure he misses Super Two and to allow him to develop just a little bit more. Eventually one of those starters falters or gets hurt and luckily you have depth.

I am all for depth., but guaranteeing $9 million to Chen doesn't seem like a depth move. It seems like a scared move. As in the Royals are scared they will miss out on other targets and won't have the security of Bruce Chen once the time comes.

Personally, Chen was my final back up plan. If all else failed, I would have loved to see the Royals bring back Chen. Especially if the deal could have been for one year, with some sort of option for the second. I would have been all for that deal. But promising Bruce Chen two years when there are so many other options out there seems silly to me.

Even if you don't believe that the Royals have other options on the free agent market, surely you can admit that there are several internal options that could be just as strong as Chen (Montgomery, Crow, Teaford). If you look to the 2013 season you may be able to throw several more starters into the mix as better options.

For me Jeff Francis would have been a better option to return to Kansas City next season. I see 2011, as similar seasons between Francis and Chen. Both are projected to post a 4.22 ERA by Bill James in 2012. But James also projects Francis to post a significantly stronger FIP, a prediction that would strongly resemble what happened in 2011, when Francis despite having an ERA nearly a full run higher than Francis, showed stronger peripheral numbers.

In the end, with the pitchers being so similar, I would have preferred Francis for the simple fact that Chen leaving would bring the Royals a draft pick. Surely that counts for something right? To me if the pitchers pitch the same in 2012 as they did 2011, it is a no brainer that Francis and a draft pick would be the more appealing option.

At this point we can't know what Francis will sign for, but early indications are that he will receive a similar deal for 2012 that he got for 2011. If Francis could have been had on a one year offer this becomes an even more obvious decision.

There are some pitchers that are able to consistently outperform their FIP, and I do think that Chen could be one of those guys. For the past two seasons he has carved out a Jamie Moyer kind of career. I wouldn't be shocked if Chen continued this trend. But personally I'm not confident enough in these odds to wager a two year, $9 million commitment.

There is also the issue of durability. For a long time you could pencil Jamie Moyer for right around 200 innings pitched. Even in 2009, when this figure dropped to 162, it would have been the second highest of Bruce Chen's career. If I knew I could count on Chen to log 200 innings I'd feel much more optimistic about this deal. But instead Chen hasn't made over 25 starts in either of the last two seasons.

Look around the Royals' rotation. Who is eating innings and protecting the bullpen? Hochevar has proven to be a bit injury prone over the last couple of seasons. Paulino has never logged over 140 Big League innings. Jonathan Sanchez battled injuries for most of 2011. Danny Duffy is a young arm that probably isn't ready to jump over 200 innings.

Let's hope Dayton Moore is serious when he talks about bringing in another starter, because for in my opinion this team will definitely need it at some point. But if you do bring in another free agent starter you basically assure yourself that Aaron Crow and/or Everett Teaford won't be shifting to the rotation and that Mike Montgomery won't be winning a spot in the rotation with a spectacular Spring.

The Royals rotation is probably stronger today than it was yesterday. But is it stronger than it was in 2011? Not in my opinion. Chen outperformed his peripherals, given this and his position on the aging curve regression should be expected. If he regresses at all the Royals rotation doesn't improve because of this deal.

Ultimately it isn't a horrible deal, but it isn't suave either. It is a deal that makes me feel uneasy. I hope that Chen continues to find the fountain of youth and can continue to defy the numbers and post quality seasons. If he does it is hard to argue with bring back the reigning Royals pitcher of the year for just $9 million guaranteed.

Update: What we Need to See

At the All Star break I made a list of ten things that I would like to see in the second half of the season. Well we are about at the halfway point in between the break and the end of the season, so let's see how the Royals are stacking up with my goals.

1. A strong second half from Alex Gordon. In the first half Gordon posted a .299/.367/.483 line. So far in the second half he has a .290/.373/.497. His OPS is up from .850 in the first half to .870 in the second half, while his OPS+ is at 138 in the second half compared to 139 in the first half. In the end he has done plenty to warrant this goal receiving a CHECK for the time being.

2. Billy Butler finding his power stroke. Butler has 9 homers, 10 doubles and a slugging percentage of .541 in 37 games. CHECK

3. An efficient Danny Duffy Duffy is averaging just over 5 innings per start in the second half, which is right in line with his first half numbers. With Duffy reaching his season's innings limit soon I can't imagine this goal doing anything but remaining UNFULFILLED.

4. Eric Hosmer developing into a Superstar. Specifically I asked for Hosmer to post a line of at least .300/.350/.450 for the second half of the season. Instead his average has improved by two points from .268 to .270, while his on base percentage has jumped from .317 to .327. Not to mention his slugging percentage has actually dropped from .431 to .390. Definitely UNFULFILLED.

5. A good luck Felipe Paulino In the second half Paulino's K to walk has dropped from 3.75 to just 1.74. Due to his increase in walks his era has taken a hit. Whether or not he is having good luck or not this isn't what we wanted to see. UNFULFILLED.

6. Mike Moustakas driving the ball with power. Despite having a hot few days to finish the Boston series (just over twenty-four hours after I tweeted that I felt Mous might get things going soon based off of his recent swings) he still hasn't shown nearly enough for a check. UNFULFILLED

7. Luke Hochevar has to be better. A 3.55 era with a k to walk jumping to 2.40 qualifies here. CHECK

8. Alcides Escobar building off of his offensive outburst. He hasn't really built off his outburst, but he has been better than his wretched start. But a .250/.271/.339 line is hardly what I had in mind. UNFULFILLED.

9. Continued dominance from the bullpen. Aaron Crow has taken a step back. Greg Holland has continued to dominate. Tim Collins has been a little better. Joakim Soria still can't put his struggles behind him. Louis Coleman, despite his performance a couple of days ago continues to impress. This one is hard, but due to Crow's struggles I am marking it UNFULFILLED.

10. Mike Montgomery righting the ship He has had several decent starts, but at no point has he dominated like he did right before the All Star break. UNFULFILLED.

Overall, the Royals are three for ten on my Goal List for the second half. Not exactly what I was hoping for when I made this list of goals, all of which I felt were attainable.

An Opportunity Missed?

After Jeff Francoeur's extension a few days ago the Royals seem to have in place their lineup for the 2012 season. I'm not sure when the last time was that the Royals had their next season's lineup in place in August was but it is nice to enter the offseason without a hole in the lineup that needs to be filled.

With that being said, I do believe that the Royals have to sign a front end starter to truly initiate the launch sequence for Mission 2012. At this point the Royals have Danny Duffy, Felipe Paulino, and Luke Hochevar as locks for the 2012 rotation. I believe that they should also reserve a spot for either Everett Teaford, Aaron Crow, or Greg Holland depending on which wins a job next Spring.

This isn't a bad group of starters. Not as bad as what Kansas City had to deal with throughout late April into early June this season. Obviously the Royals could go out and bring in a serviceable starter or two in the Bruce Chen/ Jeff Francis variety (heck they could even keep Bruce Chen and Jeff Francis). Or they could invest some of that excess cash and really strengthen that rotation.

Unfortunately it isn't exactly the most impressive free agent class when it comes to starting pitchers. There are a few names that could be pretty good fits, but considering the lack of many potential front end guys there could be a bidding war for guys deserving of that role. This isn't what the Royals want to get into.

Needless to say it isn't easy for teams like the Royals to get a hold of front end starters, even if they have the payroll flexibility to do so. But in my opinion the Royals were just presented an opportunity to get their hands on one.



On August 19, the Houston Astros placed the incredibly underrated Wandy Rodriguez on waivers. This means that teams have two business days to stake a claim on him in order for a chance to trade for him. Some people suspect that should a team claim Wandy the Astros would be content to just let him go in order to retain salary relief.

This is not only a risk that I believe the Royals should take, but also the scenario that I would have preferred to happen. Wandy Rodriguez is slated to make $10 million next season and $13 million the following season. According to Doug Pappas of SABR his 2014 option for $13 million also becomes a player option should Wandy be traded.

I am not sure if a waiver claim would make 2014 a player option, but let's say it does. The Royals would be on the hook for $36 million over the next three seasons. This is without a doubt a big chunk of money. Not to mention Wandy is already 32 and would be 35 years old by the contract's end.

Don't forgetthe Royals were willing to pay Gil Meche $55 million over 5 years and his track record at the time of the deal wasn't even close to as strong as Wandy Rodriguez. The Royals also were willing to pay $36 million to aging, steroid using, no walk taking, Jose Guillen over three years. Why wouldn't they be willing to commit the same amount of cash to a proven front of the rotation starter.

The Royals have a huge amount of payroll flexibility. Even after spending roughly $20 million on amateurs in 2011, the Royals are in a position where for the next three or four seasons they will be able to pay a huge chunk of their roster the league minimum.

The Royals are in a position where they could afford a contract such as this more than any other point in their franchise's history. Also, the guy in question is exactly what the Royals need in order to push themselves to contention.

Wandy Rodriguez has called Minute Maid Park home for his entire career. Normally I would expect his numbers to dip, due to a league change but in this situation not only could I see his numbers staying consistent, but also even improving by moving to a park that's a less hitter friendly.

There is definitely risk in committing $36 million to Wandy Rodriguez. But I believe the Royals are in a position that would make it worthwhile. There aren't many starting pitchers on the 2012 free agent market that will be as good as Wandy Rodriguez, and most will command similar financial commitments.

Should the Astros pull Wandy back if the Royals claimed him, the two clubs could then work out a trade. Rumor is that the Astros prefer salary relief to prospects at this point, so the less the Royals had to give up in terms of talent the better.

I believe that the Royals would have to place their claim on Wandy Rodriguez by Tuesday. I have read several tweets from baseball people that speculate no team will claim Wandy Rodriguez. Quite frankly there are probably only a few teams in all of baseball that could take on the contract without the Astros help at this point in the season.

The Royals have a chance to make a big move to position themselves as a front runner for the 2012 AL Central title. Will they have the courage to take it?

What We Need for 2012: Part 2

So we have accounted for 80% of the 2012 rotation and we know that the Royals are seeking Major League ready starting pitching in trades. But if the Major League ready starting pitching that they receive is in the Sean O'Sullivan/Vin Mazzaro mold the Royals would be better off hanging on to what they have or taking a couple of low level prospects with higher upside.

The Royals don't need to acquire more Major League ready starters that are really just quadruple-A guys. The players they target in trades need to truly be viable rotation options. Otherwise there is no purpose considering the Royals already have two back up spot starters in O’Sullivan and Mazzaro.

Right now the team that keeps popping up in Melky Cabrera rumors is the Philadelphia Phillies. So here are the pitching prospects the Royals should be bring up: Brody Colvin, Jarred Cosart, Trevor May, Jesse Biddle, Vance Worley, J.C. Ramirez, Jon Pettibone, and Austin Hyatt.

Now the Phillies would likely not be willing to part with the first names on this list (Colvin, Cosart, May, and Biddle). These are all top ten prospects in their system, but also they don't exactly fit the bill of Major League ready as most are just in High-A. Pettibone is also just in High-A so I can't imagine him being the centerpiece that the Royals would prefer (I think he would be a great second piece though).

So this leaves Worley, Ramirez, and Hyatt. Let's start with Worley. MLB Trade Rumors has reported that the Phillies are dangling him as part of a package to lure Hunter Pence away from Houston, so we know the Phillies are willing to move him despite his 2.02 era in 62.1 innings pitched this season.

However, Worley seems to have outperformed his peripherals and his xFIP is nearly double his era (though it still is a very respectable 3.99 for a rookie). The other downside is that entering the season Baseball America said he just "profiled as a back of the rotation starter... with no plus pitch." Obviously the Phillies are trying to sell high and are hoping a team overvalues Worley's hot start in the National League.

This is not to say that I believe Worley to not be worthwhile, but I would hope that Royals scouts believe him to be more than a back end guy should they chose to acquire him in a deal. If he is a back end guy then that still makes him better than AAAA guys Sean and Vin, but it isn't exactly the upgrade we need for the 2012 rotation.

Ramirez is also near Major League ready and entering the season Baseball America said he had mid rotation potential. But also entering the season he had a never posted a K rate under 7. However, this season that number has dropped to 4.7. His era is down to 3.93 which is the best of any of his full seasons, but the K rate is a huge concern.

Finally we get to Austin Hyatt. Hyatt was drafted by the Braves in 2004, which automatically makes him appealing to the Dayton Moore regime. Hyatt has consistently been a bit old for his level to be a top prospect, but this season as a twenty-five year old in Double-A, he has a 10.1 K rate to a 3.0 walk rate. He is a guy that looks like a target, but as the only piece and I can't say that he would be enough to get the deal done.

If the Phillies are unwilling to deal Colvin, Cosart, May, or Biddle the Royals should insist upon Worley. If Worley isn't included the Royals should probably walk unless they can receive three prospects back. If Worley is included the Phillies should get by just offering one other prospect with decent upside. If this player happens to be Pettibone, Hyatt, or Ramirez then all the better.


So would you feel comfortable with a 2012 Royals rotation being Paulino, Duffy, Hochevar, Crow, and Worley? There is definitely some upside there that the 2011 version lacked. The rotation would also have AAAA spot starters Sean O'Sullivan and Vin Mazzaro and as much as I dog on them there is a tiny bit of value there. Not to mention Mike Montgomery.

Should Montgomery really turn it around in the second half as he started to do prior to Wednesday night’s 5 earned in 5 inning performance does he edge out Worley for the fifth spot? This of course would render the trade kind of pointless in the short term much like the DeJesus trade last fall. Or does a Montgomery rise mean the Royals finally cut ties with Hochevar should he nose dive in the second half?

What about free agency? The Royals have dollars to spend and while the market isn't exactly heavy with starter options it isn't totally bare either.

Personally I think Mark Buehrle could be a good fit despite his point on the aging curve. Edwin Jackson could also be a really exciting target for Royals fans. C.J. Wilson would also be a great get for the Royals. Dare I say Yu Darvish may hit the market should the Royals really want to make a splash and go all in. Jeff Francis and Bruce Chen could be brought back to fill in as the missing piece.

I suppose what this entire post comes down to, is while the Royals rotation has been pretty terrible this season particularly while Chen was on the DL. However, when it comes to the Royals rotation being a strength for 2012 there are already two reasons to be optimistic.

If you are a believer in Crow you have three. If you think Hochevar can be at least a back end guy for a good rotation you have another. And if you believe Monty will rebound you could already have your five. No need to worry.

But if you believe in just one of the aforementioned possibilities the Royals could answer the other two questions with a trade and then a free agent signing. Quite frankly they could even afford two free agent signings should they think it is needed to contend. If you don't believe in Crow, Hochevar, or Montgomery being pieces next season then you better hope the Royals get back a Major League starter and are active on the free agent market this winter.

Personally I see the rotation as the biggest question mark for 2012. I see enough solutions internal to put out a rotation that could be good enough. But I don't want to take that chance. I'd like to see one pitcher come in via trade and one via free agency (the latter being more critical, considering he would likely be expected to be front end).

Should the Royals be aggressive in acquiring pitching over the course of the next seven months, the rotation could be a real asset entering 2012. I know this sounds strange now when it is one of the worst in baseball, but there are pieces already in place and there are avenues in which the Royals can fill the gap.

It isn’t as if the Royals have to fill the entire glass. Truthfully the glass is already half full with water pouring in. Just as it always is on Royal Revival.

What We Need for 2012: Part 1

As trade winds begin to swirl there are discussions regarding what the Royals need to acquire. According to people that have a lot more information and contacts than me, the Royals are seeking catching and Major League ready starting pitching.

You can't blame them. The Royals have one legitimate starting catching prospect playing full season ball, and that prospect didn't even make most people's preseason top ten catching prospect lists.

Don't get me wrong, Salvador Perez isn't a bad catching prospect. He is a stud defensively and I have been impressed with how his bat has progressed. But the Royals shouldn't be putting all of their eggs in one basket for this guy. He isn’t an elite guy in the Moustakas or Hosmer mold, there has to be a backup plan.

When it comes to pitching the Royals find themselves near the bottom of the rankings when it comes to team era. When you consider that the bullpen has been a bright spot all year long it isn’t pretty imagining just the starter’s numbers.

Of course it didn't help matters when Sean O'Sullivan and Vin Mazzaro were granted time as starters. Not to mention that Kyle Davies has been horrible again and Hochevar has seemed to take two steps back for every one step forward.

So where does that leave us when we look to 2012? The year we are finally supposed to turn the corner and make a some noise in the AL Central. The rotation has to be addressed. At least we won’t have to build from scratch, because the way I see it we have two guys that absolutely deserve a spot as of now: Felipe Paulino and Danny Duffy.

Paulino has been a total disrespect to what the waiver player is supposed to be. You aren't supposed to be able to acquire rotation caliber pitchers with potentially dominating stuff. Let alone a guy that almost immediately is a top of the rotation guy. But that is what Paulino has become since landing in Kansas City.

So far in Kansas City, Paulino has posted a 3.60 era with a 53 strikeouts and just 12 walks in 55 innings of play. For the season he has an xFIP of 3.14 which includes his time in Colorado when he got lit up like a firecracker. Paulino is under team control through 2014, and if he can keep up what he has done thus far in Kansas City then there is no reason he shouldn't be a part of the rotation for the next several seasons.

The other guy that is a lock is Danny Duffy. Duffy has definitely struggled with his command and pitch counts, but he is a rookie and over the course of his last 3 starts he has been a top flight starter with an xFIP under 3.

Duffy has posted an above average strikeout rate and has displayed the third fastest heater amongst lefty starters with his 93.5 mph mark. The stuff is dynamite and if he can harness his control and trust it enough to challenge top flight hitters he will be more than fine.

With Paulino and Duffy the Royals have found 40% of next season’s rotation. It isn’t a stretch for both to be quality mid rotation guys and if they can improve could even be number 2 starters.

So that leaves three spots that the Royals need to fill. I suppose at this point we should assume that one of those spots will be occupied by the enigmatic Luke Hochevar. Hochevar has been incredibly frustrating this season and I refuse to buy into the problem solved talk every time he puts together one good start. If he can string together several in a row and put to proper use the stuff that enabled him to be a top draft choice, I'll reconsider my stance.

For now though, in my mind Hochevar has started down a path that could lead Royals fans to view him as Kyle Davies part two. For this reason he'll be back in the Royals rotation next season, but without a turnaround second half we really shouldn't expect anything more than a back end guy.

So now we are up to 60%. That is until we add Aaron Crow into the fold. According to CBS Fantasy Sports, Dayton Moore has confirmed to MLB Network Radio that the Royals will move Crow to the rotation for 2012.

I like this move. Crow's stuff reminds me a bit of Greinke's. His fastball can reach the upper 90s with life and his slider can be unhittable. The huge difference between the two is that Crow's command can't even compare to Greinke's. Nonetheless I hope that time in the pen will play a similar role in Crow's transition to the Big League rotation just as it did for Greinke.

Crow has front of the rotation stuff. But we should curb our enthusiasm, considering just a year ago he was about to be demoted to Wilmington after a dreadful first half in Northwest Arkansas. I'm not saying I don't think he can still be a front of the rotation guy, but when it comes to expectations for 2012, Crow shouldn't be the guy we are counting on to turn our rotation into a team strength (although it is possible).

The Royals have also suggested that they will consider moving Greg Holland to the rotation as well. Holland has been totally filthy in the pen this year, however, he himself has said that when he started in Wilmington he was unable to repeat his delivery enough as a starter to get past the first few innings of the game. I can't really imagine Holland making the move to the rotation and if he did I don't think I would feel comfortable with the arms in the bullpen without him.

End of Part 1

Sorry for the Lord of the Rings style ending but unfortunately this post really took on a life of its own so I have decided to cut it into parts. So I’ll get the next part up shortly.

What We Need to See

The second half of the season begins tonight, let's take a look at things we want to see in order to have confidence in this team having a shot at contention in 2012.

1. A strong second half from Alex Gordon. Obviously Gordon's first half has been the brightest spot for the 2011 Royals to date. For Royals fans and bloggers like myself who have defended Gordon and blamed his late blooming on injuries and bad luck, this season has come as a huge relief. But so far we have played just over half of the games on the 2011 slate. Gordon has come a long way, but a collapse in the second half could cause a similar collapse in fan's dreams for 2012.

2. Billy Butler finding his power stroke. Despite Butler walks being virtually unparralled by any other Royal in the last two decades, posting an on base percentage near .400. Butler has been a big disappointment for Royals fans in 2011. Whether or not this is fair is another discussion, but I think we can all agree that if Butler could start slugging the ball like he did in 2009, or even just like he did in 2010, we would be much more confident in his ability to be a middle of the order hitter.

3. An efficient Danny Duffy could go a long way. I'm not asking for Duffy to become a dominant pitcher in the second half (though if he did it would definitely go a long way), but if he can just be more efficient in controlling the strike zone and his pitch counts. This would allow him to go deeper in the games, reducing the strain on the bullpen and allow him to pound the strike zone even more with his great stuff.

4. Eric Hosmer developing into a Superstar. It may be unfair to ask so much of Hosmer, but in my opinion he warrants it. It takes times for hitters to develope and normally they don't fully hit their stride until year two or three. But I truly believe that Hosmer is going to be ahead of the curve. If Hosmer can continue to improve his numbers in the second half, maybe just post around a .300/.350/.450 line in the second half then Royals fans are going to be really excited about the first base position when they look toward 2012.

5. A good luck Felipe Paulino or really even just a not unlucky Felipe Paulino. Throughout his career Paulino has consistently posted head scratching era numbers considering the strength of his peripherals. He has knockout stuff and a dynamite fastball. His body type suggests he can handle a big time workload, so if Paulino's luck pendulum can swing in the opposite direction or even hang straight down the Royals will have found one/fifth of their rotation through 2014 for nothing at all.

6. Mike Moustakas driving the ball with power. Mike Moustakas hasn't looked overwhelmed in his time in the Majors and he has put together solid at bats on a consistent basis. However, he hasn't been the player that those of us that have seen in the minors have come to love. He doesn't appear to be swinging as hard and his power has been virtually non existent. A strong second half from Moustakas could be just what Royals fans need to really buy into Mission 2012.

7. Luke Hochevar has to be better. Luke Hochevar is beginning to transition into Kyle Davies territory and if he can't put together a strong second half then I wouldn't have any problem with the Royals trading him in the offseason even though it would mean selling low.

8. Alcides Escobar building off of his offensive outburst. I'm not going to ask for Escobar to become a .300 hitter (though I think it is possible). But if he can get his average up into the high .260s by the end of the year, Royals fans will recognize the value that he brings with his glove and an average bat for the position.

9. Continued dominance from the bullpen. The bullpen has a huge bright spot for the 2011 Royals and the best news is that every single pitcher is under team control through at least 2014. If this unit can continue to find success and dare I say even improve, it could be a tremendous asset for the Royals moving forward.

10. Mike Montgomery righting the ship and even finding time in Kansas City this summer could be huge for Royals fans expectations for 2012. The glaring weakness of this team is the rotation. The team needs a frontline starter. Montgomery has that potential and if he can continue to dominate like he did in his last two starters Royals fans should really start to have a lot of confidence for 2012.

Halfway There. Living on a Prayer.

Just like that we are halfway through the Major League baseball season. Of course most people split the season into two halfs around the all star break, but for the purpose of this post we are going to use the 81 game mark. The reason? All we have to do is multiply by two and we can see some projected totals for Royal players.

Let's start with the catchers. Brayan Pena is on pace for 230 at bats this season, a number that would shatter his previous career high of 165. Of course that number could really jump should the Royals trade Matt Traenor and allow Pena to catch full time in the second half of the season.

Oh and speaking of Matt Treanor. Have you noticed how much he is walking this year? He is currently on pace for 58 walks, while playing in 104 games. He also has an on base percentage of .354. Those 58 walks would be a career high, in fact he has already set a career high when he walked for the 23rd time this season. Matt has also never played more than eighty-two games in a single season.

Over at first base Kila Ka'aihue likely won't be given an opportunity to double his numbers, and since Eric Hosmer didn't play the entire first half it renders this drill pointless for him as well so we'll move on to the "other firstbaseman" Billy Butler.

Butler is currently on pace for some monster numbers for a middle of the order hitter with 12 home runs and 68 rbi. These would be his lowest totals since his rookie season when he posted 11-55 in just 124 games. I should also add that he is on pace for 92 walks which would be the highest single season mark for a Royal since 1989 when Kevin Seitzer walked 102 times and it would shatter the previous Dayton Moore era record of 69 that Butler set in 2010.

Of course over at second base Chris Getz hot streak has really strengthened his projected numbers for the year. Getz who is batting .343 in his last 19 games is now on pace to get 128 hits which would be a career high, while stealing 28 bases which would also be a career high.

When we shift to the other side of the bag we find another middle infielder whose recent hot streak has moved his numbers out of abysmal territory. Alcides Escobar is also on pace for a few career highs: hits (140), doubles (24), rbi (42), and steals (24).

Wilson Betemit playing in part time duty once again, is on pace for 30 doubles and the highest single season WAR of his career at 1.8. His home run power has taken a severe drop and he is only on pace for 4 home runs this season, 9 less than last season despite being on pace for 100 more at bats.

Melky Cabrera is having more pop in his bat this season than any other and if he continues at his current pace will post career highs in home runs (18), doubles (36), and slugging percentage (.428). Despite playing the worst defense of his career he is still on pace for a career high 2.2 WAR.

Jeff Francoeur of course is doing exactly what Dayton Moore brough him in to do. Currently he projects to hit 22 homers, the highest total since his sophomore season when he hit 29. He also figures to finish with 94 rbis and 36 doubles. Not to mention that he would finish with a career high 26 steals. his previous high was 8. He is also on pace for 38 walks, just 5 more than his 162 game average.

Mitch Maier has starred in bench duty. He is having the best season of his career based on the stats that start with a decimal point. However, he is also only on pace for 86 at bats which would be the lowest figure for his career when you remove his 13 at bat 2006 season.

Finally we get to Alex Gordon whose season is easily the best of his career. He is on pace for 186 hits and while he has totally change his approach at the plate, he is also on pace to tie his career high in walks at 66. He also projects to hit 48 doubles, 8 triples, 18 home runs, and score 90 runs. All of these would be career highs. He projects to post a 5.6 WAR.

On the pitching side of things it has been much more grim. Hochevar may be having the best season of his young career. He is on pace to wipe out his previous 0.5 WAR when he finished the year with a 0.6 mark. He is on pace to post career high marks in walks and home runs allowed, while only tying his career high mark in strikeouts. He has been an innings eater (on pace for 210 innings) which is something that shouldn't be taken forgranted with the young pen.

Jeff Francis's era of 4.79 is in line with his career figure of 4.77. He is on pace to eclipse the 200 inning mark for the first time since 2007. But his strikeouts per 9 innings are down to 4.0, from his previous career low of 5.8.

Kyle Davies continues to epically suck. While Bruce Chen continues to drink from the fountain of youth. His 3.46 era would be his best mark since 2004 when he pitched in 8 games for the Baltimore Orioles.

The bullpen is young and has been very strong. But since most are rookies there isn't much to compare their numbers too, exceopt for the closer Joakim Soria. Soria having the worst year of his career. He is on pace to give up the most home runs and walks in his career while recording the fewest strikeouts despite pitching in the most innings since his rookie season.

As a team the Royals are on pace for 66 wins which would place them right in between the 2009 and 2010 win totals. 696 runs scored the most since Dayton Moore's first full season when the team scored 706 times. Finaly they are on pace for 794 runs allowed the lowest since 2008 when the team gave up 781.