Covering Ground

"The Royals outfield defense did experience an improvement during the 2013 season. Their sharp fly balls (balls in the air between 2.5 and 4 seconds) Out% in 2012 was 46%. Over the first two months of the 2013 season it was similar with a 47.4% value. Then strong-armed, but slow-footed Jeff Francoeur was released in the middle of June. From July on, the Royals sharp fly ball value jumped to 52.7%." - Royal Review (Article can be read here.)

I don't think it was any coincidence that while Francoeur was on the roster, the Royals were 37-41 and following his release, the Royals went 49-35 the rest of the way. Last offseason, the Royals brought in fly ball pitchers. A strategy that makes sense given the spaciousness of the outfield at Kauffman Stadium. However, this is only half the equation. Without a sterling defense to chase down those balls, the combination of a spacious outfield and a subpar outfield defense is a death sentence.

This is a huge reason for why I am so excited about the addition of Norichika Aoki, who like Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, and Jarrod Dyson, can cover some ground in the outfield. Entering the offseason, I was afraid that in the Royals perpetual quest for power, they would discount this particular advantage and bring in another slow-footed bopper to play right field.

One of the beauties of baseball is that every team plays their home games in a unique park. Obviously, some parks are more haphazard than others, but teams that can take advantage of their home parks can also reap the benefits. By taking this route,  I hope that the Royals have finally come to the realization of the type of team it takes to win at Kauffman Stadium. I also hope that not only can the Royals continue to take advantage of this factor, but that they can expand upon it in 2014.

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Can Luke Hochevar and Jeff Francoeur be worth the money?

The Kansas City Royals will have a payroll of roughly 80 million in 2013.  The acquisitions of James Shields, Ervin Santana, along with the 3 yr/ 25 mill deal given to Jeremy Guthrie are the reason that KC has seen a significant payroll rise from the just over 60 million they shelled out last season.  Another 11.4 million dollars in 2013 is going to the duo of Luke Hochevar (4.65 mil) and Jeff Francoeur (6.75 mil).  After doing some crude research pertaining to WAR and having a dollar value per win, the past two years look to be right around 4.5 million dollars per win.  With this in mind, Luke Hochevar would have to be worth one win with Francoeur’s game giving him a WAR right around 1.5.  Both these figures are widely considered to be bad deals for the Royals, but I want to know if there a chance that both these players can play up to the level of their salary in 2013?

The Royals could have made the decision to non-tender Hochevar and cut ties with the former #1 overall pick, but they instead decided to offer him arbitration.  As a result of the signings to get much needed help to the starting rotation, Hochevar quickly lost out in an attempt to earn a rotation spot during spring training and will now start the year as a long reliever/ swing man type player for the Royals.  This role will give him some starts throughout the year it is going to limit the amount of innings he will give the club compared to the 198 in 2011 and 185 over 32 starts last season. 

Since 2008, Hochevar has been between 1.5 and 2.5 WAR while always throwing more than 100 innings during the season.  I think best case scenario sees Hochevar playing a role similar to that of Carlos Villanueva for the Blue Jays over the past two seasons.  This would mean giving Hochevar roughly 35 appearances including 10-12 starts and around 110-120 innings.  I think this is a realistic, yet optimistic, projection. Hochevar managed a 1.5 WAR last season due largely in quantity of innings rather than quality of performance, so it is realistic to see Hochevar’s WAR dip under 1.0 if he does not become a better pitcher than he was last year. 

Becoming a reliever typically helps pitchers become more effective, as they are able to throw harder, see hitters only once, and the manager is better able to put pitchers in situations in which they can succeed.  While most projection systems gave an output based on Hochevar, it is fair to think that Hochevar will stabilize the huge number of home runs he gave up last season but it is hard to say if we will see a rise in strike outs or a dip WHIP, which are necessary if he is going to be effective in any role.  If we see a drop in ERA and FIP to about 4.50, which I think is realistic, the Royals have a player in Hochevar worth about 1-1.5 WAR, or basically just earning his salary but providing little extra output. 

Jeff Francoeur had a forgettable 2012 season.  Widely considered the worst offensive player in 2012, Royals fans still see Frenchie atop the depth chart in right field coming into 2013.  In the final year of his 2 year/ 13.5 contract there is pressure on Francoeur to show both the Royals and the rest of the major leagues that he is skilled enough to provide true value to a major league club.  We saw a .235/.287/.378 AVG/OBP/SLG line with poor base-running and defense (even with his strong arm).  All in all the WAR stat tells us that Jeff Francoeur was about -1.2 wins below a ‘replacement’ player.  With this in mind, it will take some major strides in order for Francoeur to help a team hoping to make the playoffs this season. 

There are enough viable options in the Royals system that I suspect Francoeur to have a shorter leash than last season.  Players like Jerrod Dyson and David Lough should get some starts in place of Francoeur, which really should help his overall value.   That being said, this is a player that has had over 600 plate appearances the past two seasons, but it is possible he plays more.  Francoeur is widely known an effective hitter against left handed pitching, having a .820 career OPS against southpaws compared to .702 versus RHP.  In 2012 these numbers were .695 and .662, respectively.  Even most haters would concede that they expect his numbers to improve, even if ever so slightly.  We should expect about 150 AB’s versus left handed hitters, and KC Royals fans should expect somewhere around his career OPS v LHP (it was .934 in 2011).  Fans should also expect more time on the pine versus righties.

A best case scenario in my mind for 2013 would be for Francoeur to turn into a Jonny Gomes like platoon player.  Gomes has a much different style of play, but provides similar value as a player who mashes vs lefties but can be a liability on the field and the bases.  Gomes provided 2 WAR mostly based on his .974 OPS in 164 at bats versus lefties.  The A’s only gave him 115 at bats versus right handed pitching.  I do not expect to see Francoeur match Gomes numbers from last season, but I think we will see him regain his ability to hit lefties.  Still only 29, it is also possible we will see slight improvements in defense and on the bases compared to 2012.  If used correctly, Francoeur could be a productive player in terms of WAR, but it will probably not add up to a full ‘win’.  

It is not an eye popping conclusion that I came to that Francoeur will most likely not earn his 2013 salary.  He was, however, a 3 WAR player in 2011 during his 20HR/20SB season.  If we would have seen a match in ability (and luck) in 2011 the Royals would have him at a discount.  There is no secret that the Royals have tried to move him, but fans will just have to deal with him for this season.  With Hochevar, the Royals could have let him go during the offseason, but instead decided to keep him around.  I wonder if they did this with the idea that he would be back in the rotation, or if they had an idea of their plan to add enough arms to bounce Hoch to the pen. 

I really have no major problem with these contracts, but it is pretty telling that about ¼ of their salary goes to these two along with new Royal Ervin Santana, another youngish player with some talent and upside, but his 5.16/5.63 ERA/FIP over 178 innings was good for -0.9 WAR in 2012.  The Royals have a ton of young talent on offense and in the pen, and I understand that many fans appreciate the obvious push for a playoff run.  For the Royals sake, let’s hope that these 20 million dollars do not go to waste in 2013.  

Dan's Opening Day Roster

Every year since high school, we would gather 'round in journalism class and decipher who should play where, who will be in the rotation and bullpen, and then get our Opening Day previews ready for our newspaper 'The Ragout.'  Granted, the reception for the Royals preview wasn't always a huge hit because it didn't involve the Cardinals, which made us enjoy it even more, but I digress.  Obviously, this season has a whole new feeling to it.

Ever since the massive trade that sent Wil Myers to Tampa in exchange for James Shields and Wade Davis, we've been transformed into a "we're going for it" baseball team.  This is what makes baseball so great.  Clearly, the kind of spring we're having right now doesn't really mean anything, although it's very nice to see some wins.  Spring Training is more than just shaking the cob webs off, it's about figuring out your new, adjusted roster, it's about warming up for your upcoming season for players with job security, others it's about acquiring a job.

photo courtesy of royals.mlblogs.com

There are a few names that stick out as far as having a solid spring, others haven't been so lucky, and a few..well we just expected it.  Of course, Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas should be at the top of the list as far as those having successful pre-seasons.  The other, without any argument, is David Lough.  Now 27, Lough has made a case for deserving a spot on the roster in Kansas City, and rightfully so.

His situation, unfortunately  is against him.  In front of Lough, the likely candidate for the 4th OF spot is Mr. Zoombiya himself, Jarrod Dyson, who of course is out of options.  Fortunately, Lough does have options.  Don't get me wrong, I've been a big fan of Lough.  He's given a great effort at every level and has produced quite nicely, but the cards have just been played against him for so long.  I think it's fair to say that he's well overdue for a longer stint in the bigs.

As for those not performing up to protocol, we all know who is at the top of that list: drum roll please.......Jeff Francoeur.  Last year's .235/.287/.378 line from Jeff was absolutely unacceptable.  All season, it was such an eye sore to see him in his locked up 5th spot in the lineup and day after day, just not produce like he did in 2011.  Frenchy, known for his positive clubhouse presence, took it personal.  This past off-season he started working out with Alex Gordon, which obviously has it's advantages, but even though he's lost weight and got into the gym constantly, the spring has been just another "Frenchy" performance.  With that said, he has made aggressive comebacks before and it will be interesting to see how his 2013 summer will kick off.

Let's get down to brass tacks.  This is my lineup that I wouldn't mind watching on April 1st, and hopefully it's no joke:

LINEUP

LF - Alex Gordon

SS - Alcides Escobar

1B - Eric Hosmer

DH - Billy Butler

C - Sal Perez

3B - Mike Moustakas

RF - Jeff Francoeur

CF - Lorenzo Cain

2B - Johnny Giavotella

BENCH

C - George Kottaras

OF - Jarrod Dyson

OF - David Lough

IF - Elliot Johnson

ROTATION

James Shields

Jeremy Guthrie

Ervin Santana

Wade Davis

Luis Mendoza

BULLPEN

RHP - Luke Hochevar

LHP - Bruce Chen

RHP - Aaron Crow 

RHP - Kelvin Herrera

LHP - Tim Collins

LHP - Donnie Joseph

RHP - Greg Holland

Time to be a little realistic.  First of all, Chris Getz will likely be the chosen one for second base.  In today's game against the Cubs, Giavotella committed a throwing error and went 1-3 giving him an avg. of .278, while Getz went 1-2 with an SB, making his avg. rise to .303.  In my opinion, I believe if Gia were hitting well, he would fit in nicely in the 2 spot.  

Next, I don't see any scenario, except mine, where Dyson and Lough ride the bench together, unless Yost decides to do a platooning situation.  In the real world, Dyson will be in Kansas City, and consequently, Lough will be heading north to Omaha.  To replace Lough on the bench, as much as I hate saying it, Miguel Tejada will likely be the guy.  Recently, Guillermo Moscoso was released from the team, clearing a spot on the 40-man, which has Tejada's name written all over it.  

As for pitchers, I believe Luis Mendoza earned a spot in the rotation after an acceptable September and October, going 1-1 in 6 starts, compiling a 2.48 era in 36.1 IP, striking out 27 and walking just 9.  Hell, we can say Mendoza was easily the best pitcher on our staff in 2012.  Now remember, we do have Danny Duffy and Felipe Paulino to fit in the mix later in the season, which gives the Royals (and us) options for either injuries or failure to meet expectations.

Finally, the piece de resistance: the bullpen.  Louis Coleman most likely starts off in Omaha, only because he has options while Hoch and Chen do not.  At this point, I believe Donnie Joseph has made a strong case for joining the pen, as it gives the Royals the privilege of having a 3rd left-handed reliever, along with Chen and Tim Collins.  Battling for the final spot, J.C. Gutierrez is said to be in the running, but considering he's out of options and his lackluster spring, I don't see him getting into the 'pen.

Dyson's Goals

"I would at least say 50 (steals). I got 30 last year and my numbers weren't even close to what I just said (.280 batting average, over .350 OBP). I just want to do whatever it takes to help this team win." -Jarrod Dyson

At first glance, it seems as though these goals might be a bit reaching for Jarrod Dyson. After all, in 102 games last season Dyson hit just .260/.328/.322 with 30 steals. Of course, as of now Dyson might have difficulty finding the field enough to compile 50 stolen bases. In fact, when I was talking about Dyson's goals with fellow Royal Revival blogger Paden Bennett, he commented that Dyson should be starting over Jeff Francoeur.

Personally, I think the best situation for Dyson and the Royals would be a Dyson-Francoeur platoon in 2013. Dyson's goals might seem a bit reaching at first glance, but last season against righties Dyson managed to hit .275/.340/.349. On a personal level, Dyson's best shot to achieve his personal goals would likely come as a member of a platoon where his poor performance against lefties wouldn't factor in as much to his overall line.

The steals will be harder to get as a part of a platoon, but starting against righties 110-120 times, plus the opportunity to pinch run in every other close game should afford Dyson plenty of opportunities. Of course, as we know, over his career Jeff Francoeur is much better against lefties than he is right handers. Here is a quick look for what the production might look like for a Dyson-Frenchy platoon.

In order to arrive at these numbers I took the 2012 splits versus right handers for Dyson and the career numbers versus left handers for Francoeur and then condensed them into a 650 plate appearance sample. I then weighted Dyson's numbers at .7 and Francoeur's at .3 because I felt as though this would be a similar ratio to how often the Royals face right handed versus left handed pitchers.

Here is the line that the Royals could expect barring no improvement from either Dyson or Francoeur's 2012 performance: .260/.323/.361. This would equate to an OPS .034 points than Dyson in 2012 and .019 points higher than Francoeur's.

It should be noted, that despite a career long history of quality performance against southpaws, 2012 Jeff Fancoeur actually only recorded an OPS of .695 against them. For his career, Francoeur boasts a .820 OPS against pitches coming from the opposite side of the rubber. If you conduct this same exercise, but with career splits adjusted for 650 plate appearances and then weighted, a Dyson-Francoeur platoon would post a line of .270/.329/.390, good for a .719 OPS.

I'm not expecting the Royals to take such an approach. Also, the best case is that Francoeur can find his 2011 form and Dyson is a fourth outfielder/pinch runner. However, injuries happens so my guess is that Dyson will get plenty of playing time. My stance on Dyson remains the same. He is a very valuable piece as a fourth outfielder, and might even be a second division regular. If Frenchy struggles out of the gate, a platoon should be in order until another option can be found.

Disappointment in Pete

The subject of this post is Pete Grathoff's Saturday article regarding Jeff Francoeur. If you haven't read Pete Grathoff's article, you can read it here. If you've never heard of Pete Grathoff, then you are not unlike myself.

First off, let me just say that yes, the general premise of the article is correct. A team can make the playoffs with a player like Jeff Francoeur. Let me go on to say that I do expect Jeff Francoeur to be better in 2013 than he was in 2012. Although, I don't expect him to be that much better.

Back to the article, which I don't think should be taken seriously as a quality piece of sports writing. Actually, when I think of what the article represents, I think of Pete writing it up to try and salvage a last bit of pride after his friend tore him apart in a debate over Jeff Francoeur's value. What probably happened was Pete was defending Francoeur saying things like: "well, he's got a great arm and was a Gold Glove finalist" or "come on, he wasn't that bad" and of course Pete would have said something like "well metrics can't quantify Jeff Francoeur's intangibles."

Of course, by the end of the argument Pete probably felt as though he had been beaten down. In a last ditch effort to save face he wrote an article as a way to save face. Pete likely remembered his friend triumphantly saying "See! The Royals cannot make the playoffs with Jeff Francoeur on the team!" This was the line that Pete kept dwelling on. As he sat down for dinner it played through his head. As he showered the thought kept ringing in his mind.

Eventually, he said to himself "Well dammit! I am going to look at the sabermathematics thing ma-bobs and I'm going to prove to my no-good dirty rotten pig stealin' friend that the Royals can make the playoffs with Frenchy!" And that is what he did.

So Pete poured through the Wins Above Replacement numbers for each of the teams that made the playoffs. Eventually, he found two teams that had players with worse rWARs than Jeff Francoeur. Of course, he couldn't do this with fWAR, because there were no players with worse fWARs than Francoeur, but I digress. The two teams that he did find were the Detroit Tigers with Brennan Boesch and Delmon Young and the Texas Rangers with Michael Young.

Now that the article has been written, it appears that Pete's got us beat. I don't see why we are all complaining about Frenchy so much. It has been proven that the Royals can make the playoffs with a player as dismal as 2012 Francoeur. Although, we should all ignore the fact that outside of Michael Young, the Texas Rangers had one of the most talented rosters of the decade. Let's also not forget that despite their talented roster they lost the division by one game and were forced to play in a one game playoff that ultimately led to their premature elimination. Hey Pete, how many WAR was Michael Young worth again? You can put down your calculator, it was around -1.

Oh, I'm sorry Pete. I forgot about the Detroit Tigers. You know the team with the top 3-4 combination and best pitcher Major League Baseball. The clear preseason favorites in the American League Central. The team that almost pissed it away thanks to the performances of Boesch and Young.

Ultimately, the problem with this article is the undertone that the Royals shouldn't be concerned about Frenchy because other teams have made the playoffs with similar blackholes in their lineup. The obvious difference between Kansas City and the aforementioned teams is that both of those teams were World Series favorites entering the season and the Royals are on the peripheral of contention.

The Royals absolutely can't afford to be complacent at any position. Kansas City has to seek to improve anywhere they can, even if it is marginal. Right field is one area in which the Royals could upgrade simply by subtraction. Royals fans aren't claiming that it is impossible to win with bad players. But Royals fans are smart enough to realize that this team can't afford to cut any corner. Hopefully, a Kansas City Star writer can understand that.

Royals add to Outfield "Depth"

The Kansas City Royals added another piece to the Omaha Storm Chasers outfield today when they announced the signing of former Royal great Endy Chavez to a Minor League deal.

Chavez has played in 974 games at the Major League level. Over that time he has hit .269/.286/.333 but has received enormous praise for his glove work. In fact, Chavez may lay claim to the greatest catch in MLB postseason history. If you don't remember it, you can view it here.

Just a few days ago, I wrote a few paragraphs regarding the type of outfielder the Royals could target to complement Jeff Francoeur. I talked about a left handed hitter, or at least a guy that could eventually partner in platoon and also a guy that was very good defensively, so that if he didn't hit, he could at least offer some upgrade in the form of his glove. On the surface it appears that the left handed Endy Chavez fits that exact mold. However, a closer examination would reveal that Chavez isn't quite the answer that one might have hoped.

While Endy Chavez was an absolute stud defensively for a four year period from 2006-09, his defense has sunk to just slightly above average over the past couple of seasons. Also, despite being left handed, Chavez has never displayed much in the way of a platoon advantage and his .676 career OPS against right handers is almost identical to the .675 he posts against southpaws.

Ultimately, the signing was just a Minor League deal and you will never hear me criticize a Minor League free agent signing. There is no point. The risk is so insignificant that there isn't any reason for people to be critical of these types of additions. My only point, is that Chavez doesn't fill the role that I have been advocating the Royals to attempt to fill. This doesn't mean I don't like the addition from a depth standpoint, merely that I believe Kansas City should continue to search for a lefty outfielder that could complement Frenchy on the Major League roster. I do not think Chavez is that guy.

As of now, the Royals are likely out on any other Minor League additions in the outfield department. They already have Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, Francoeur and Jarrod Dyson for the Major League roster, David Lough fighting for the 5th outfield spot and Xavier Nady, Willy Taveras, and now Chavez on Minor League deals. Basically as of now they have nine players between the outfields of Kansas City and Omaha. The Royals don't necessarily need to, but I still believe it makes sense to add one more outfielder on a Major League deal for 2013, if the right player presents himself. With Cain's injury history, Francoeur's poor performance, and some question marks that still surround Dyson, depth could be extremely important.

In the Cross Hairs: Seth Smith

By request we continue the 'In the Cross Hairs' series with a look at Oakland Athletics outfielder Seth Smith.   Unlike most of the other players we have looked at in this series, the former second round selection is not available on the free market and instead would have to be acquired via trade.

Smith has long been viewed as a target for teams looking to improve their outfield. Wwhen the A's acquired former Diamondback outfielder Chris Young at the start of the offseason, they all but ensured the Smith lust would continue for another offseason. After losing Collin Cowgill to the New York Mets, Smith currently slots in as Oakland's fourth or fifth outfielder. Ahead of Smith is Yoenis Cespedes, Chris Young, Josh Reddick, and Coco Crisp.

In 2012, Oakland implemented platoons as good as any team in baseball. More than likely they are looking to take a similar approach in 2013. Yes, the Athletics acquired another outfielder in Chris Young, but as a right handed hitter I don't see his acquisition as giving the A's any extra motivation to move Smith. However, given Smith's likely raise in arbitration, I'm sure the A's would at least listen. Smith currently would be under team control for two additional seasons and MLB Trade Rumors projects him to earn $3.3 million through arbitration for 2013.

If Smith could be had, he would be an ideal platoon partner for Jeff Francoeur. In 2012, Smith hit .259/.353/.454 versus right handed pitching, a line that was actually down from his career marks of .283/.361/.503. He has averaged around 1.5 fWAR per season over the last three years and according to defensive metrics has been a slightly above average defender.

The problems with Smith are as follows. First, the A's don't quite have the surplus of outfielders that is perceived by most. I have no doubt that Smith could be had via trade, but his role is no different today than it was in the season, and the A's are fully aware of his value as a platoon player.

Secondly, the Royals are said to be looking for a low cost option to add to their outfield. Personally, I think that  $3.3 million is pushing "low cost." Not to mention, the Royals would have to part with some sort of cost in terms of talent as well, in order to acquire Smith.

Finally, and this isn't necessarily a big problem, but Seth Smith isn't an everyday guy. He is horrible against left handed pitching. For his career he has hit .191/.264/.307 against south paws and was even worse in 2012 hitting .157/.250/.271. If the Royals were to acquire Smith, they would need to fully commit to a platoon for 2013. If Francoeur doesn't pick it back up against left handers, they would need to search out a right hander to complement Smith, because Smith won't hack it as an everyday guy.

If the platoon was successful, the Royals would then need to spend next offseason finding a right hander to complement Smith for 2014. This isn't too difficult and could provide a nice bridge to Jorge Bonifacio or Orlando Calixte, either of which could be ready to man a corner come Opening Day 2015.

Smith mashes against right handed pitching. Quite frankly, the Royals could do a lot worse than a Smith-Francoeur platoon in right field for 2013. The commentor who suggested Smith is definitely on the right track and he is exactly the kind of player that could be very effective as a platoon partner to Frenchy. Ultimately, I don't think Smith is the guy primarily because of his price tag for 2013.

The Right Field Problem

Over the last couple of weeks, I cannot help but to think a lot about the Royals problem in right field. Thanks to the confidence of Bob Dutton's tweets, I have resigned myself to the fact that Jeff Francoeur will be the guy entering 2013. However, while Dutton has made this point very clear, he has also been clear that should Frenchy struggle out of the gate, the Royals will search out alternatives. Dutton has also suggested that the Royals might seek out a low cost option to push Francoeur this Spring.

The way I see it, this leaves Kansas City with two realistic low cost options. The first of which is to sign a cheap defensive oriented type. The second is to find a left handed option that could eventually platoon with the French Man.

By searching out a defensive option, Kansas City could open the season with the individual as the fourth or fifth outfielder. If Francoeur struggles out of the gate as most expect, the defensive oriented guy can provide slide in for Francoeur as a placeholder until a better option can be acquired. By getting a player that is good defensively, the Royals can at least obtain some sort of value upgrade over Francoeur who will likely be bad both at the plate and on the diamond.

The other option is likely a pipe dream out of the gate, but might be a possibility as the season progresses. The solution here would be to sign a hitter that excels against right handed pitching. For his career, Francoeur possesses a .820 OPS against left handed pitchers, but just a .702 OPS against righties. Of course, in 2013, Francoeur was awful against both, but even then his OPS was 43 points higher against southpaws.

It is hard for me to imagine the Royals totally cutting ties with Jeff Francoeur, but I could envision a scenario in which they first try to mitigate his poor performance by platooning him with another player. Of course, the Royals don't necessarily have to go outside of the organization to find Francoeur a platoon partner.

Jarrod Dyson and David Lough are both left handed and could settle into a platoon with Frenchy by season's end. Toying around with the projection machine, assuming last year's production, a platoon of Dyson and Francoeur could be worth about a 1.3 wins more than Francoeur playing everyday. This may not sound like a large amount, but when you are in Kansas City's position a single win could go a long way in improving the team's playoff odds.

In the Cross Hairs: Johnny Damon

One day Bob Dutton speculates that the Royals might look to add a low cost option and the next Johnny Damon states he wants to retire a Royal. Let's take a brief amount of page space to determine how these two thoughts could even match up.

First off, as a left handed bat, there is a possibility that he could platoon with Jeff Francoeur. Now obviously, Damon has one of the worst arms ever so right field isn't going to be an option for him. So to make a Damon-Frenchy platoon work, it would take some shuffling. Against left handed pitchers, Frenchy would start in right, with Gordon in left and Damon on the bench. Against right handers, Damon would start in left, with Frenchy on the bench and Gordon sliding over to right field.

In his time in the Major Leagues, Gordon has played 3219 innings in left field, but has only played 25 innings in right. Obviously, Gordon has good range, and thanks to his accurate arm and quick release, the arm to play the position. While I think Gordon would be fine in right, I have a hard to imagining the Royals shifting him to the position. I don't know why, but after shifting him around so much early in his career it almost seems as though they want no part of messing up a good thing. For this reason alone, Damon likely isn't a fit for Kansas City.

Even if the Royals were willing to shuffle Gordon between the corners, there is still the issue of Jeff Francoeur. I want to believe that Dayton Moore is looking to upgrade in right field, and at the very least is considering a platoon at the position. However, I struggle to imagine a 2013 outfield without Frenchy. This is unfortunate, as now the Royals are likely right on the cusp and any additional wins could push them over the hump.

The final problem with bringing back Damon, is the fact that he may not be any good anymore. Last season Damon signed for $1.25 mill and played in just 64 games for the Cleveland Indians. In that time he hit just .222/.281/.329. It was the lowest OPS+ Damon had posted since 1996 when he was a 22 year old playing outfield for the Royals.

From a fan's perspective I would love to see Damon retire a Royal. I know many Royals fans have ill feelings toward him, but I am not one of them. Quite frankly, he is one of the best players the Royals have ever produced. Damon currently sits just 231 hits shy of 3,000 and is a career .285 hitter with 408 steals and 235 career home runs.

When it comes to guaranteed money, I wouldn't put anything out there on Damon. As a 39 year old coming off a dreadful season, he no longer warrants an automatic roster spot. If Damon can be had on a Minor League contract with an invite to Big League camp, I would be all for it. Maybe he finds some of the old magic and can provide some value on the roster. Ultimately, the most likely way in which Damon retires a Royal, is the same way in which Mike Sweeney did, a 1 day contract.

Francoeur Extended

In case you haven't heard or didn't see it coming from miles away the Royals elected to extend Jeff Francoeur earlier this morning. Francoeur was the only of the three Royals outfielders that weren't already under team control for next season. Considering management's infatuation with him, the fact that Frenchy is having a good season by league standards, and how Francoeur clearly would love to be back in Kansas City for Mission 2012.

Francoeur, who will make $2.5 million this season, had a mutual option for 2012 for $4 million. Now though he is signed to a two year extension that will be worth a total of $13.5 million. Is anyone really surprised?

So what does this extension mean? First let's just examine if Francouer is worth the amount of money the Royals will be paying him over the next couple of seasons. At this point in time, the fine people at Fangraphs believe that each Win Above Replacement is worth about $4.4 million (roughly).

So far this season according to Fangraphs Jeff Francoeur is worth 2.3 WAR, meaning that he has been worth $10.1 million on the open market. Obviously these figures are debatable. However, Fangraphs does its best to provide a dollar figure for player's values and that is the best we have to go on at the moment.

So if this market value continue to hold true, Jeff Francoeur will need to produce 3.1 WAR over the next two seasons in order to achieve fair value for the contract. Over his career Frenchy has averaged being worth 1.5 WAR a season. However, over the past three seasons that figure drops to just 1.1 WAR.

As Joe Pawlikowski displays in this article, Jeff Francoeur numbers this season do not appear to be an outlier compared to the rest of his career. Instead his offensive numbers seem to have remained consistent while the rest of the league has regressed. What this has done for Francoeur is turn his below average offensive production and turned it into above average. When you consider that Francoeur is twenty-seven and entering his prime years it isn't outrageous at all to suggest for the next couple of seasons he could at least be as good offensively as he has been in 2011.

On the low end, let's say Frenchy regresses to his three year average in WAR production and only contributes a total of 2.2 WAR over the next two seasons. If that happens he will be worth a 9.7 million dollar deal. Should he contribute 4.6 WAR and keep up his play at 2011 standards, he would be worth $20.2 million.

I suppose this is a long way of saying that based on the figures for the contract Jeff Francoeur could very well wind up being paid more than what he is worth. However, just as likely he could be a bargain for the next couple of seasons. I believe Rany said it best after the extension today (and I am paraphrasing here) how often can a time sign an outfielder entering his prime with the kind of tools that Jeff Francoeur has for this kind of money?

I am not willing to call this a bargain for the Royals, but it would appear that they have paid pretty fair market price for their charismatic right fielder. If you are a believer in the intangibles that Francoeur brings to the clubhouse than you also have to consider those benefits as well.

So what is the opportunity cost here for the Royals? Well considering that the Royals and Alex Gordon have already stated that an extension for the pair is a goal in the offseason, it probably means that an extension for Melky is very unlikely.

At this point Gordon and Frenchy are both under control through the 2013 seasons. Melky is under control for 2012. Is it even feasible that the Royals totally commit to their current outfield through 2013? I can't see it happening. Not this offseason at least.

So what the Royals have done is elected to commit to Francoeur long term, while going year to year with Melky. Melky by the way has been a vastly superior player to Frenchy this season. Cabrera has contributed a WAR of 3.6 and has played a premium position.

Even though Cabrera has been a better player and signing for the Royals this season, was there anyone that thought he was more likely to be extended than Francoeur? I doubt it. Cabrera's ability to play center and switch hit coupled with the fact that he has had a better season than Francoeur should have made him a better fit to sign to a multi-year deal.

In the end, Dayton Moore and company knew that they wanted Francoeur back and quite frankly they may not have been able to do that on a one year deal. By selecting Francoeur as the man to receive an extension they were able to keep the entire outfield intact.

The Royals could have very easily picked up their half of Francoeur's mutual option. If he would have accepted, it would have been a great deal. If he would have declined the Royals could then have offered him arbitration. If Francoeur would have accepted that once again there is only a small financial commitment and it is just for one season. If he would have declined arbitration the Royals could have patted themselves on the back, been proud of their thrifty signing, and hoped that Francoeur obtained Type B free agent status and netted them a supplemental draft choice.

If the Royals would have taken this route they could have shifted Melky Cabrera over to right field next season and hand the centerfield job to Lorenzo Cain. This wouldn't have been a bad route at all. Truthfully I would have preferred the Royals take this route.

What this signing also means is that the Royals don't view Wil Myers as a guy that will be ready by mid 2012. There is nothing wrong with this and it definitely isn't a shot at Wil Myers. But what it means is that Myers should now be afforded at least another season or a season and a half in the minors before he will be able to really push for a big league job.

By signing Francoeur the Royals are able to add to their inventory now and in the future. Obviously they wanted Francoeur back in 2012, and without at least a two year extension they probably couldn't have been sure that he would return. My unimpressive and boring conclusion to all of this is that like the Francoeur signing last winter, this signing isn't a detrimental move. It is predictable. It does offer some positives, but these are about as high end as the potential negatives.

It isn't the route I would have taken. But it isn't a route that will hurt the Royals either. But when the Royals resign Jeff Francoeur to another two years in 2013, it will be a different story.

Trade Deadline Wrap Up

I realize that I'm a bit late to the party when it comes to offering my thoughts on the trade deadline, but here I am anyway and I have something to say. People need chill out with the horrible deadline talk.

To be clear I want to see Lorenzo Cain in centerfield for the Royals. But we need to keep in mind that he isn't an elite guy. Not the kind of player that you have to clear a spot for at least. For that reason the Royals shouldn't just ship off an outfielder for scraps in order to make room for the man.

Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur are both having great years. Cabrera can, without a doubt, be brought back next season simply by offering him arbitration, which he will be required to accept. Jeff Franceur has a mutual option and I expect both sides to exercise it.

So both players should be back next season and should be key components in Mission 2012. I realize that entering the season neither played a role for the Mission, but make no mistake both are deserving of spots now. If the Royals are lucky enough next season to not have an outfielder go down with injury and the outfield performs like it has in 2011, then Lorenzo Cain spends the season as a fourth outfielder in Kansas City or the everyday centerfielder in Omaha and in 2013 the job is his.

If Cabrera or Francoeur regress or go down with injury, Cain assumes the role as the everyday centerfielder and the Royals don't miss a beat. Given that neither Cabrera or Francoeur would be under contract after the season the problem would work itself out. If both perform well and the Royals don't contend, well they'll have another deadline to try and make a deal.

It seems as though the fanbase has widely accepted the youth movement and bought into the farm system so much that they are missing the point in this case. The point of having a great farm system is to turn the crop of young talent into a competitive team. The point isn't to fill the roster with the hot prospect every time he declares himself ready, not when you already have a contributor in place at the Major League level.

The Royals have found a good starting centerfielder in Melky Cabrera. Jeff Francoeur has also put together an excellent season, though many Royals' fans are still unwilling to admit it. If the goal is to win a division in 2012, then why would you sell off a proven commodity for scraps just so that you can give an unproven commodity a chance? Not to mention the predicament you get yourself in should an outfielder get hurt or not perform.

Now we don't know what Dayton Moore was offered for either of his outfielders. But what we do know is that the market quickly became saturated with quality guys. Colby Rasmus, Carlos Beltran, Hunter Pence, and Michael Bourn were all dealt, not to mention B.J. Upton appeared to be on the block for the week leading to the deadline.

What the Royals needed was a mid rotation starter to make a deal worthwhile. Francoeur was never going to net that and with the outfield depth on the market we knew that Cabrera wouldn't either. The Royals made the right decision to hold on to the outfielders. Some fans just won't accept it.

As for the pitching side of things, the Royals didn't make any trades either. The market for back rotation starters was almost nonexistent so Dayton Moore held on to his two elderly lefties. Both of which are here are on one year deals and will be gone at the end of the season. I don't advocate resigning either.

Right now Chen may be able to net the Royals a Supplemental pick in the Rule IV draft, but he will need a strong finish to the season and even then a team would have to sign him to a Major League deal for 2012.

Jeff Francis, on the other hand, has been a good innings eater for the Royals but he is no better than a back end guy at this point in his career. The way I see it the Royals rotation for 2012 goes like this: Paulino, Duffy, Hochevar, Montgomery or Crow, plus a free agent signing. Either the Royals bring in a back end guy like Francis, or they go for a front of the rotation guy. They have the money, so if they want to contend in 2012 a front end guy is what we need.

It would have been nice to grab a high upside low level prospect for Francis, but I am not sure that it was even possible. Like I said the market was virtually nonexistent so I can't blame Dayton Moore for holding on to an innings eater in an attempt to take some stress off of the pen for the last two months of the season.

Had we dealt Francis it would have meant a stint in the rotation by Vin Mazzaro, given Davies shoulder inflammation. Even without the trade, I'm sure point we'll see Mazzaro again, but him going four innings a start isn't what our bullpen needs after a taxing season. Hopefully the next time we see him will just be as a spot start and nothing more.

Obviously it would have been great if the Royals could have fleeced a desperate team and brought in a near Major League ready starter with front end potential. But it didn't happen. The Royals did an excellent job in free agency last winter and found two quality outfielders. Now they are going to hang on to them and hopefully they can perform to the same standard in 2012. If they can then the signings in themselves pushed contention forward and that has always been the goal.

B.J. Upton Rumor and Centerfield Thoughts

A very interesting nugget of trade rumor fell from the sky today when Joel Sherman stated that the Royals "have an interest in B.J. Upton with an eye on contending next year."

Centerfield has always seemed to be a position of critical importance for Dayton Moore (as it rightfully should, especially given Kauffman Stadium's huge alleys). He once traded for Coco Crisp. A season later he signed Scott Podsednik as a stop gap.

Obviously he knew Podsednik wouldn't be the guy once the Royals reached contention again so he flipped him at the deadline. This offseason though the Royals found themselves in a spot where they weren't necessarily expecting to contend. But if the right solution presented itself, the could acquire a piece that could be part of contention once it occurred.

When Justin Upton was rumored to be on the block, we heard that the Royals were one of the teams with an interest in acquiring the 5 tool star. Around the same time the Royals were also linked to the Florida Marlins' Cameron Maybin just before he was traded to San Diego. Both of these players were guys that would be under team control for multiple seasons, were once billed as top prospects, and could cover some serious ground in centerfield.

Eventually the Royals settled on what appeared to be another stop gap in Melky Cabrera. But Dayton Moore talked about how the Royals would also control him for 2012. Of course we thought it was just lip service. I can't blame Royals fans for not wanting to imagine Melky Cabrera as the team's centerfielder for Mission 2012, considering Melky's dreadful 2010 campaign.

A few days after signing the Melkman the Royals acquired another centerfielder in the Zack Greinke trade. Lorenzo Cain had long been coveted by the Royals brass. He nearly was acquired for Brian Bannister a long time ago before Bannister's career came to a screeching halt.

Finally it seemed that the Royals had found their man for the future. Now it was just a matter of Melky performing enough to net some decent value for him in a trade. At the latest we thought Cain would be assuming fulltime centerfield job on August 1st. Allowing him two full months of at bats in the American League.

But a funny thing happened, Melky tore it up and Dayton Moore began to talk about how he's reluctant to trade either of the Royals "stopgap" outfielders. Of course there are fans, myself included, that want to see Cain in the Majors. But now Melky seems to have positioned himself as part of the future. At least for next season. Unless the Royals are overwhelmed by an offer.

If Cain doesn't get called up to play everyday for the last two months of the season. It will be frustrating. But it won't be a tragedy. It isn't as though Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur are one year guys stealing at bats. They could both be a part of the next winning Royals team.

If the Royals believe in Mission 2012 they should go with the best team they can field. Perhaps it isn't the wisest move to simply get rid of an above average Major League outfielder in favor for a guy never considered elite. Even if that guy is tearing it up in Omaha (at a park that highly favors right handed hitters).

But now we hear this rumor regarding B.J. Upton. Let me begin by saying that I love this rumor in principle. I love that the Royals would be willing to make a move to acquire a Big League piece that it feels would push them over the top. However, I don't believe that Upton is the guy.

Of course the ceiling on Upton is limitless. But we shouldn't forget the basics. First, Upton is only under team control through 2012. He has a career triple slash of .256/.341/.411. But over the last three seasons his slash is down to .239/.318/.403. Given the decline in offense production league wide his is basically an average offensive contributor.

Of course there is also the belief that Upton is a top flight baserunner and defender. For his career he has at times shown that this is the truth. But according to fangraphs both his baserunning and fielding have contributed negative values for his WAR in 2011.

Upton is currently having his worst season as a professional and it seems strange that Sternberg and Friedman would be willing to sell so low on such a potentially valuable commity. Given how much respect I have for the Rays front office I don't believe they are willing to sell low and it is for this reason that I believe the Royals shouldn't take the risk.

The Rays are rumored to be asking for top pitching prospects in return for Upton. The Royals definitely have the Minor league talent and depth to pull off a deal, but I don't think this is the player the Royals should take the risk on. Especially when you consider that pitching is the Royals biggest need moving forward.

I would rather the Royals keep Cabrera in centefield and hang on to the prospects. I would rather see Cain finally get the everyday job if the Royals can get a fair return for either Cabrera or Francoeur.

But if the Royals are interested in B.J. Upton would it be safe to assume that they would also kick the tires on Hunter Pence or Colby Rasmus. Both have been discussed in rumors this July. Given Dayton Moore's desire to upgrade center I can't imagine that he would at least make a courtesy call on the subject.

Pence of course would be a huge net for the Royals. He would be under team control for three more seasons and could be the stud the Royals need at the top of their lineup.

Rasmus could be a Royal through 2014. While he has posted similar numbers as B.J. Upton he would seem to be more appealing giving his controlled years and age. He is having a down year and has never seemed to truly belong in St. Louis.

I want to emphasize that I don't think Upton would be a bad pickup. On the contrary his reward is so great that the move would probably get many Royals fans giddy with excitement for 2012. But this is primarily because Upton is so overrated considering what he has actually done as a Big Leaguer. But I do beleive that teams value prospects a bit too much in the current state of the game.

I'd love for the Royals to make a move for a premier Big Leaguer. We have the pieces to do it. If the Rays are willing to sell low I wouldn't fault the Royals for pouncing. But if the Rays want multiple top prospects, the Royals would be best served to look elsewhere.

Quite frankly the Rays front office is too good for me to think that the Royals could get Upton at fair value for what he is right now. If the Royals acquire him it will likely be because they paid for upside. Upside that looks like it may never be reached.

Add On I have just been informed that ESPN Insider reports the Royals want Upton and pitching from Rays. This is interesting because you would think that Upton would be the only thing going to Kansas City in a trade. Perhaps this means that the Royals are offering a big league piece as well. Perhaps Joakim Soria or Billy Butler? Both would be great fits in Tampa.

The Cabrera Conundrum

"Cabrera will ideally play at a decent level for the first few months of the season and then the Royals will have an appealing chip at the deadline."

That's what I said about Cabrera on December 14th. Obviously I was really making a bold statement at the time. What I didn't forsee was Cabrerra playing at such a high level that it would be possible for the Royals to not receive an offer worth trading him. This is because I assumed that even if he played well, he wouldn't possibly play well enough to warrant a spot in the team's future.

But what has happened is that Melky Cabrera has posted a career year in 2011. He is currently hitting .296/.333/.459, has posted an wRC+ of 121 and the sixth best WAR among centerfielders with a 3.3 mark. He has been near average when it comes to defensive evaluations and his arm has been an absolute weapon.

The Royals have Cabrera signed a $1.25 million deal for 2011, so there is no pressing need to unload salary. But because of the way he has played this season the fact that he is under team control through 2012 has now became a much more important piece of information.

The most interesting part of this whole discussion is that the Royals have another outfielder that could be back in 2012 that is also exceeding expectations this season: Jeff Francoeur. Francoeur hasn't been nearly as strong as Melky has thus far, but if Royals fans had to bet on which would be back in 2012, I think virtually everyone would wager that Frenchy would be the guy to stay.

What is also critical is that the Royals have a guy in triple-A that absolutely needs to be in the Majors collecting at bats. Lorenzo Cain cameover from the Brewers and became the centerfielder for the future and thus far has done nothing to depress that belief. He has a .319/.385/.525 in Omaha and reports are that he makes spectacular defensive plays every night.

What I think is interesting is how Royals fans have a player performing at a high level in centerfield that could be back next season, yet most fans would prefer to hand the position over to a prospect. Yes the upside is higher, yes Cabrera is performing at a career high level. However, this is interesting nonetheless. Do you think that by next season Cain will be a top ten centerfielder? Because so far Melky has.

I want to see Cain playing centerfield. But Cabrera has performed at such a high level that the Royals absolutely not trade him unless they receive a deal that they believe fair. Cabrerra isn't like Wilson Betemit. The Royals don't have to deal him. For that reason the haul that the Royals bring in for Cabrerra should present enough upside for it to be obvious that it was the right decision.

The Phillies are rumored to have traded names with the Royals for Cabrera. What guys do you like? Who would it take for you to be happy with the deal? What kind of prospects?

But what if the Royals can't get fair value for Cabrera? What do you think they should do? What is the solution? Trade Francoeur? What if that isn't a possibility? Do you accept what you can get for Cabrera and move on? Or do you stick with your current outfield?

Let me know what you think Royal Nation. Hopefully this is only the first case of the Royals have multiple Major League ready players at one position.

Let the Rumblings Begin

Trading season seems to be bearing down upon us now as the Royals have made news several times in the last few days on the subject. The Royals who find themselves in the cellar of the AL Central have several players that could be intriguing to contending teams, but unless they shop Joakim Soria or Billy Butler really lack the piece that would have teams salivating.

Nonetheless the rumors began on Friday when we heard that the Royals are seeking Major League pitching for Jeff Francoeur. Francoeur then countered the rumor by stating:

“At some point, we’ll talk to Dayton about the option. Maybe get a two or three-year deal or something. I’ve told Dayton that I like it here. I’d love to stay here."

Francoeur for the season has .264/.309/.438 which is right in line with his career line of .267/.310/.426. However, due to offense taking such a dive this season his OPS+ is a very respectable 108, which compared to his career OPS+ of 93 is a definite improvement.

Also, Francoeur has upped his steal count from his previous career high to 15. Honestly steals are pretty overrated but some teams, like the Royals, feel they are much more important than they truly are. Don't forget that he has been great defensively with one of the top arms in the game and leadership qualities that Dayton Moore wants around his young team.

Jeff Francoeur could have some appeal as a platoon rightfielder for a contending team, but I can't see a contending team acquiring him with the idea of playing him everyday. He has value, but if Major League ready starting pitching is what the Royals want they will probably come up empty handed or worse wind up with a Sean O'Sullivan/Vin Mazzaro type.

Keep in mind that Jeff Francoeur has already been trading twice. Once for Ryan Church. Once for Joaquin Arias. It is hard to imagine him netting much more value this go around despite all of his improvement. (Yes I do believe he has improved, just not much.)

Today rumors surfaced that the Brewers and Royals have discussed trading Wilson Betemit. I imagine Betemit could be an extremely appealing bench target for contenders given his ability to play on the corners, his combination of decent power with good on base skills, and his extremely friendly contract.

I imagine there will be more teams other than the Brewers that have discussions for Betemit, however since we don't have specifics I'll simply focus on Milwaukee who seems to really be selling out for 2011. Because Milwaukee has such a poor and empty farm system the Royals would probably be looking at acquiring one of the better prospects in their system.

Of course there is another outfielder that Kansas City possesses on a very team friendly deal that is playing extremely well this season and his name is Melky Cabrerra. The Melkman is having a career year with the bat, can play every outfield position is on a very team friendly contract and is under team control next season as well.

So far this season Melky has posted a career high OPS+ of 119. His previous high was 95. He has also posted a career high WAR of 3.0 compared to his former high of 1.7. These are great numbers, so good in fact that it is hard to imagine the Royals trading him for a fair return.

I don't think teams will be willing to pay him for what he has done this season, because teams will point to 6 other seasons worth of data that show a different story. The Royals will pitch this season and his two years worth of control and in the end the two sides may not be able to put a value on Cabrerra that both teams consider to be fair.

If the Royals can convince teams to pay for Cabrerra like a cheap 3 WAR player then they should without a doubt sell high and consider the signing a huge success. Cash the chips, pat themselves on the back, and give the centerfield job to Cain.

If the Royals can't sell high and Cabrerra is only worth a middling prospect, then the Royals should hang on. Move Francoeur, Shift Cabrerra to a corner, let Cain go to work in center.

The Royals have enough pieces that this could be an extremely busy deadline. However, Moore's quotations in the KC Star indicate that they could also stand pat. Obviously trades are excited, they show an attempt to get better, and give us bloggers something to talk about. But if the Royals do hang on to their pieces it won't necessarily be a bad thing, just the boring thing.

Halfway There. Living on a Prayer.

Just like that we are halfway through the Major League baseball season. Of course most people split the season into two halfs around the all star break, but for the purpose of this post we are going to use the 81 game mark. The reason? All we have to do is multiply by two and we can see some projected totals for Royal players.

Let's start with the catchers. Brayan Pena is on pace for 230 at bats this season, a number that would shatter his previous career high of 165. Of course that number could really jump should the Royals trade Matt Traenor and allow Pena to catch full time in the second half of the season.

Oh and speaking of Matt Treanor. Have you noticed how much he is walking this year? He is currently on pace for 58 walks, while playing in 104 games. He also has an on base percentage of .354. Those 58 walks would be a career high, in fact he has already set a career high when he walked for the 23rd time this season. Matt has also never played more than eighty-two games in a single season.

Over at first base Kila Ka'aihue likely won't be given an opportunity to double his numbers, and since Eric Hosmer didn't play the entire first half it renders this drill pointless for him as well so we'll move on to the "other firstbaseman" Billy Butler.

Butler is currently on pace for some monster numbers for a middle of the order hitter with 12 home runs and 68 rbi. These would be his lowest totals since his rookie season when he posted 11-55 in just 124 games. I should also add that he is on pace for 92 walks which would be the highest single season mark for a Royal since 1989 when Kevin Seitzer walked 102 times and it would shatter the previous Dayton Moore era record of 69 that Butler set in 2010.

Of course over at second base Chris Getz hot streak has really strengthened his projected numbers for the year. Getz who is batting .343 in his last 19 games is now on pace to get 128 hits which would be a career high, while stealing 28 bases which would also be a career high.

When we shift to the other side of the bag we find another middle infielder whose recent hot streak has moved his numbers out of abysmal territory. Alcides Escobar is also on pace for a few career highs: hits (140), doubles (24), rbi (42), and steals (24).

Wilson Betemit playing in part time duty once again, is on pace for 30 doubles and the highest single season WAR of his career at 1.8. His home run power has taken a severe drop and he is only on pace for 4 home runs this season, 9 less than last season despite being on pace for 100 more at bats.

Melky Cabrera is having more pop in his bat this season than any other and if he continues at his current pace will post career highs in home runs (18), doubles (36), and slugging percentage (.428). Despite playing the worst defense of his career he is still on pace for a career high 2.2 WAR.

Jeff Francoeur of course is doing exactly what Dayton Moore brough him in to do. Currently he projects to hit 22 homers, the highest total since his sophomore season when he hit 29. He also figures to finish with 94 rbis and 36 doubles. Not to mention that he would finish with a career high 26 steals. his previous high was 8. He is also on pace for 38 walks, just 5 more than his 162 game average.

Mitch Maier has starred in bench duty. He is having the best season of his career based on the stats that start with a decimal point. However, he is also only on pace for 86 at bats which would be the lowest figure for his career when you remove his 13 at bat 2006 season.

Finally we get to Alex Gordon whose season is easily the best of his career. He is on pace for 186 hits and while he has totally change his approach at the plate, he is also on pace to tie his career high in walks at 66. He also projects to hit 48 doubles, 8 triples, 18 home runs, and score 90 runs. All of these would be career highs. He projects to post a 5.6 WAR.

On the pitching side of things it has been much more grim. Hochevar may be having the best season of his young career. He is on pace to wipe out his previous 0.5 WAR when he finished the year with a 0.6 mark. He is on pace to post career high marks in walks and home runs allowed, while only tying his career high mark in strikeouts. He has been an innings eater (on pace for 210 innings) which is something that shouldn't be taken forgranted with the young pen.

Jeff Francis's era of 4.79 is in line with his career figure of 4.77. He is on pace to eclipse the 200 inning mark for the first time since 2007. But his strikeouts per 9 innings are down to 4.0, from his previous career low of 5.8.

Kyle Davies continues to epically suck. While Bruce Chen continues to drink from the fountain of youth. His 3.46 era would be his best mark since 2004 when he pitched in 8 games for the Baltimore Orioles.

The bullpen is young and has been very strong. But since most are rookies there isn't much to compare their numbers too, exceopt for the closer Joakim Soria. Soria having the worst year of his career. He is on pace to give up the most home runs and walks in his career while recording the fewest strikeouts despite pitching in the most innings since his rookie season.

As a team the Royals are on pace for 66 wins which would place them right in between the 2009 and 2010 win totals. 696 runs scored the most since Dayton Moore's first full season when the team scored 706 times. Finaly they are on pace for 794 runs allowed the lowest since 2008 when the team gave up 781.

The Harvest of the Process

Well that was probably the shortest shelf life ever for a Royals blog poll. Just over twenty-four hours ago I asked the fans: which of the Royals elite prospects would be the first to reach the Majors. Of course if it is any consolation Eric Hosmer was leading the race with 6 votes compared to 2 for Danny Duffy and 1 for Mike Moustakas.

Eric Hosmer's promotion to the majors has already become a symbol for the Royals' fan base. It reprsents the moment that the Royals transitioned to a new stage of the Process. The stage in which the Process transitions from an underground operation with a cult following into the limelight with every Royals fan taking notice on a daily basis.

Sure the Royals have already received major contributions from several rookies. Actually six are already on the roster. Aaron Crow has been dominant in the back end of the bullpen. Jeremy Jeffress has dazzled fans with an upper 90s fastball. Tim Collins has corkscrewed his way into a key relief role. Louis Coleman has deceived hitters throughout his first couple of weeks in Royal blue. Nate Adcock has transitioned from mop up duty to sinker ball specialist. Jarrod Dyson has almost single handedly stolen multiple wins from the jaws of defeat.

But now the Royals will finally tap into that cashcrop of prospects that set a record for placing the most players ever on the Baseball America top 100 prospect list. Eric Hosmer, who many regard as the third best hitting prospect in all of Minor League baseball will make his debut tonight.

We are no longer tasting the appetizer and we are no longer seeing the tip of the iceberg. What is about to happen in Kansas City will be the main course of what Royals hope will be a five course dinner that leads to multiple postseason appearances and dare we say World Series titles.

Prior to the season it seemed that every major publication that predicted future World Series winners was calling for big time results in Kansas City as soon as 2013. Royals fans have even discussed Mission:2012 as the calling card for the Royals ascension to contention. But now, with the Royals 17-14, just 4.5 behind the surprise Cleveland Indians and tied for first in the AL Wilcard race. Royals fans look at how Detroit, Chicago and Minnesota are struggling.

Royals fans look at Alex Gordon, Jeff Francoeur, and Wilson Betemit, all guys who have been previously regarded as top prospects who are now entering the prime of their careers. All of which are currently in the process of breaking out. Sure in a month we could be talking about how all have fallen off after their blazing starts. But is it totally unreasonable to hope or even assume that this could be more?

What if Gordon, Francoeur, and Betemit really have turned a corner in their careers? Shouldn't the Royals attempt to grab the race by the throat and go for it? Apparently the organization feels like they should. With the promotion of Eric Hosmer the Royals have announced to the rest of the AL Central and the American League that it is time to stop messing around. If Gordon, Francoeur, and Betemit can continue to rake we won't be looking forward to 2012 anymore. Instead the Process will be looking at Operation:2011.

Tonight the Royals will improve the heart of their order by hitting Eric Hosmer sixth and they will improve their infield with Eric Hosmer at first. Eric Hosmer will be granted the luxury of hitting in the middle of the order with hot sticks in front of him and on most nights Wilson Betemit hitting behind him.

I prefer Hosmer in this spot. It is the perfect place where Hosmer can produce and come up to the plate in important situations, but also not have the weight of the offense on his back. I also believe that on night's when Wilson Betemit is hitting 7th Hosmer will benefit from a strong bat in the on deck circle. Teams will be forced to pitch to the rookie much more than if his protection was Matt Traenor or Brayan Pena.

This brings up an interesting point. Was Kila Ka'aihue really granted a fair opportunity? He hit in the heart of the order at the start of the season but after a dreadful start was bumped all the way down to the 7th spot. Once there he was afforded no protection and continued to struggle. Eventually he found himself in a platoon and finally he found himself on the bench before his eventual demotion.

In Kila's last eight games there was evidence that he had begun to turn things aroud from a statistical standpoint. Obviously these cues were lost on Manager Ned Yost and General Manager Dayton Moore. Kila Ka'aihue will likely join the immortal likes of Calvin Pickering and Ken Harvey in the Royals blogosphere. Always wondering what could have been had he been granted a longer opportunity or not struggled so much out of the gate in 2011.

Ultimately though the Royals future didn't fall on the back of Kila Ka'aihue in anyway. Truth be told the best case was that he raked in 2011 and the Royals could have netted a decent prospect in return. It came to a point though that Eric Hosmer could no longer hold Hosmer back.

With just another month to go before the organization could have held off Super 2 status the team decided that Hosmer was too ready to hold back. Hosmer was hitting .439/.525/.582 through twenty-six games in Omaha. It was time to make the switch. The organization clearly felt that from both a developmental and competitive standpoint it was Hosmer's time to shine in Kansas City.

At this point in time I have little reason to doubt the Royals ability to develop prospects. Hosmer had a babip of nearly .500 and almost all of his offensive value while at Omaha had come by hitting singles. It isn't exactly what you'd hope for when it comes for a middle of the order bat, but reports are that Hosmer was hitting the ball hard almost every time up to the plate.

Hosmer has great plate discipline. He has a sweet stroke and uses the opposite field with ease. He commands the strikezone. He has been compared Joey Votto, Will Clark, Mark Teixeira, and Adrian Gonzalez. His line in Omaha doesn't scream power, but I have little doubt that he is going to rake in the Majors. He is the rare prospect whose back is going to immediately impact the Major League level.

Mark Hosmer's promotion as another tick in David Glass' favor as he continues to rebuild his fickle image. While reports that this promotion will cost the Royals upwards of $15 mill are exaggerated. There is a strong possibility that by promoting Hosmer on May 5th instead of June 15th, the Royals will have cost themselves some leverage in negotiating a long term deal and even about $7 million in his first arbitration case.

Although I don't think anyone would complain if Hosmer was awarded Ryan Howard's $10 million as a first time Super 2 arbitration eligible, given that it would mean that Hosmer will have already won an MVP award.

What Royals fans are all probably hoping is that the Royals will lock up Eric Hosmer sooner rather than later and all of the arbitration talk will be moot. It has become a popular move to provide a top young player financial security while also buying out arbitration and a couple of years of free agency.

Evan Longoria was promoted to the Majors with such a deal in place and now it is generally regarded as the most team friendly deal in all of baseball. There is a fear though that since Eric Hosmer's agent is Scott Boras the Royals won't even be granted an opportunity to lockup their young star. This fear is not necessary for Royals fans. Look at Carlos Gonzalez who just signed a 7 year, $80 million. Gonzalez, like Hosmer, is also advised by Scott Boras.

I believe that if the Royals win Hosmer will be in Kansas City longer than the typical six years of pre free agency service. Hosmer's best friend is Mike Moustakas and if the Royals start adding to the flags I have little doubt that Dayton Moore and David Glass will do everything they can to keep their superstars in Kansas City for as long as possible.

Speaking of Mike Moustakas. I am going to predict that he gets real hot starting yesterday. The promotion of Eric Hosmer to Kansas City is going to serve as a notice for all of the prospects at the triple A level. If you can help the Big club then you are going to be given that opportunity. The Royals aren't messing around and it is time to get this thing started.

Particularly Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy, and Mike Montgomery could make impacts on the Major League club. The rotation has struggled this season and Danny Duffy and Mike Montgomery could offer quick and effective upgrades. But guys like David Lough, Lorenzo Cain, and Johnny Giavotella could also get an opportunity to prove their worth this season.

The Royals offense, which is already tops in the American League with 162 runs scored just got another potent weapon to work with. With an offense that strong the Royals should continue to be right in the race and if the pitching staff can get an upgrade the Royals really could be playing meaningful games all season long. Something that I have a hard time even grasping, considering I have never witnessed it in my lifetime.

Perhaps in ten years the Royals won't celebrate on Cinco de Mayo because of Mexican heritage, but instead because they can look back on it as the day that Eric Hosmer got called up, the day the Process hit Kansas City, and the day the Royals organization finally revived itself into an American League power.

Poll Results are in:

On the same day that Sean O'Sullivan and the Kansas City pen carved up the Mariners for a shutout the poll for Royals home run leader came to a close. Here is how you voted:

• Billy Butler- 9 votes (18%)


• Jeff Francoeur- 4 votes (7%)


• Alex Gordon- 10 votes (18)


• Kila Ka'aihue- 29 votes (54%)


• Mike Moustakas- 1 vote (1%)


• There were no votes for any other players.

Right now Jeff Francoeur, Billy Butler, and Matt Traenor lead the Royals with 2 home runs. This would put each of them on pace to hit 23 for the season. Behind them Mike Aviles, Wilson Betemit, Melky Cabrerra, Alex Gordon, and Kila Ka'aihue all have 1, which is a pace of 12 for the season.

Be sure to vote in the new poll regarding possible contention and the handling of prospects!

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