In the Cross Hairs: Cameron Maybin

Over the next couple of weeks, I hope to take a look at several different players that the Royals could/should target via trade. As I highlighted here, I believe that the Royals should pursue an outfielder at this year's trade deadline. Also, according to Jon Heyman the Royals are actively searching the trade market for outfield help.

Royals, pirates among teams looking at outfield help

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) July 12, 2015

For these reasons, I'll probably focus my efforts on examining outfielders. Let's start with Atlanta Braves center fielder Cameron Maybin.

A former first round pick and top prospect, Maybin has for the most part failed to live up to the hype as a Major League player. However, the Asheville, North Carolina native has produced 9.3 fWAR over 641 career games, which translates to about 2.4 fWAR per 162. For comparison's sake, Alcides Escobar has been worth 2.1 fWAR per 162 throughout his career.

For his career, Maybin has hit .252/.317/.372. However, in 2015, Maybin has boosted that line to .289/.356/.418. Clearly, teams need to be wary of acquiring players when they are at peak performance and in this case, Maybin is having the best offensive season of his career (117 RC+). The question becomes is this luck driven or change driven?

In this particular circumstance, I believe there is a strong case that Maybin has turned a corner offensively. Although, I don't believe it do be quite as pronounced as the stats seem to indicate. To double check on this, I ran Maybin's contact rates through a xBABIP calculator to see what we should expect his line to be thus far this season.

• Actual: .289/.356/.418 with 8 HR
• xBABIP Adjusted: .303/.368/.433 with 8 HR

Now let's look at how his numbers change if we change his HR/FB% to league average of 10.5%:

•  .295/.361/.396 with 5 HR

Finally, how would the numbers look with Maybin's career HR/FB% instead of the 16% that he has blasted out in 2015.

• .293/.359/.386 with 4 HR

My personal conclusion is that as a 28 year old with regular playing time for the first time since 2012, Maybin has improved at the plate. He is posting a career high 9.3% walk rate and he is squaring the ball up more frequently than he has at any other point in his Major League career. What I don't buy is the sudden increase in power. However, even if you accept the final line that uses Maybin's career HR/FB% a .293/.359/.386 line would represent an enormous improvement of Alex Rios's .238/.266/.288. 

Of course when talking about Maybin the offense is only a portion of what intrigues me. Despite a career year at the plate, the numbers indicate that Maybin has struggled defensively in 2015. Defensive Runs Saved believes that Maybin has cost the Braves 14 runs this season. UZR has him at -7.2 runs through the first half. 

These numbers come as a bit of a surprise considering that through Maybin's first 8 seasons, he was worth on average about 3 runs saved per year. Nothing special, but a slightly above average defensive center fielder carries value and typically translates into an above average corner outfielder. Fortunately, for the Royals that is exactly where Maybin would wind up. 

While it isn't a slam dunk, my guess is that if Maybin were to move to a corner at Kauffman Stadium, his defense would play up in a tremendous way. The Royals have finally begun to realize that the uniqueness of Kauffman's spacious outfield can be an enormous competitive advantage. Essentially, by fielding 2 or 3 center fielders, there is enough space that the individual's fielding territories don't overlap which allows for maximum defensive effect. 

Maybin is currently owed about $3.5 million for the remainder of the 2015 season. He is under control at a very affordable $8 million for 2016 and has a $9 million team option for 2017 that includes a $1 million buyout. Overall, if the Royals were to acquire the Braves outfielder, the team would owe him a approximately $12.5 million guaranteed. Not only would that buy the Royals a fill in during Alex Gordon's time on the disabled list, but it would also check off a box on this winter's shopping list.

Another aspect that draws me to Maybin is the fact that he is right handed. I've made no secret that I believe Jarrod Dyson should be playing more often. If the Royals were to acquire Maybin they could put Dyson and Rios into a platoon at the other corner. Then when Gordon comes back, Maybin could take Rios's place with Dyson occasionally spelling him against right handed pitching. (Of course, my dream would be to DFA Rios and start both Maybin and Dyson everyday until Gordon returns. Sight.) If the Royals can manage to bring back Gordon for the 2016 season, I believe that it'd make more sense to acquire a right handed hitter than a lefty for the reason above. 

So would the Braves trade Maybin? What would it take? The answer to the first question is not obvious, but I believe the answer to be yes. The Braves are clearly in a rebuild mode. Despite their best efforts to keep things interesting in 2015, the team is now 7 games behind the Nationals in the NL East and 6 behind the Cubs for the second wild card.

EDIT: According to Bill Shanks the Braves are open for business and wouldn't refuse a strong trade offer for Maybin. Shanks believes the Braves could reasonably demand a prospect in a team's 5-10 range. For the Royals that zone preseason included: Hunter Dozier, Miguel Almonte, Foster Griffin, Scott Blewett, Jorge Bonifacio, and Christian Colon.

What would it take to acquire Maybin is a more difficult question to answer. Let's say we are optimistic and project Maybin to be worth 1 fWAR for the rest of 2015, 2.5 fWAR for 2016, and 2.5 fWAR. Let's say we don't discount future value and we value 1 fWAR at $8 million, which seems high. If we do all of these things, we find that Maybin is worth about $27 million in surplus value. (Considering the way we reached this figure, I believe this to be on the high end.)

Based on the work from The Point of Pittsburgh, this is roughly the equivalent of a pitching prospect in the #26-50 range and a pitching prospect in the #51-75 range. 

If we take a more pessimistic approach in how we value Maybin, we could reach the conclusion that he is worth more like $6-10 million in surplus value. This would make Maybin worth a border line top 100 prospect. 

Based off all of this, I could see the Braves and Royals coming together somewhere in between. Perhaps, one of the Royals top pitching prospects, plus another guy ranking in the 20-45 ranges of the Royals top prospects. This aligns well with what resident Braves fan Nick Allen guessed at on Twitter. He discussed the Braves desire to add arms and catching depth and throughout a Maybin for Brandon Finnegan and Zane Evans swap. 

It has been said before, but if the Royals do move a top prospect, it seems like Finnegan is the most likely to go. Finnegan was a beast last October, but the Royals approach to his development this season has at times been baffling. At this point, I think it is likely that the Royals view him as a reliever long term and with that being the case, his value could be higher as a trade commodity than as a building block for future teams. I also recall that from his MLB Network days that John Hart, President of Operations for the Atlanta Braves was a huge Miguel Almonte fan.

What do you think Royals fans? Would you trade either Brandon Finnegan or Miguel Almonte plus another low level prospect for Maybin? Let me know!

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

The State of the Royals Outfield

As Royals nation collectively awaits the official results of the MRI on Alex Gordon's left leg, we are left to ponder what this means for the team moving forward. If the early indications are true that it is a grade 3 groin strain, then (based off a limited amount of research) Gordon could be sidelined between 6 and 12+ weeks. So let's look at how that breaks down on the calendar:

6 weeks - August 19 

7 weeks - August 26

8 weeks - September 2

9 weeks  - September 9

10 weeks  - September 16

11 weeks  - September 23

12 weeks - September 30

Obviously, that's not a good situation. Another note is that the final game of the 2014 Minor League season on September 16. The importance of this is that if Gordon winds up being out 9+ weeks, then it is extremely unlikely that the Royals would have the ability to send their All-Star left fielder on rehab assignment. If Gordon winds up being out 9+ weeks, the Royals would have to reacclimate him through batting practice and a careful increase in playing time at the Major League level. 

It is not impossible to get a guy back to speed without a rehab assignment, but it does make it a bit more difficult. Not to mention the possibility that the Royals could be playing in extremely important games over the last several weeks of the season. 

Here is how I see it. If Gordon takes 9 weeks or less to return, the Royals are able to send him on rehab to the Minors and have the best chance of reintegrating him into the lineup in an effective manner. If Gordon takes between 9 and 11 weeks to return to game shape, the Royals have a shot of getting him back for October. If Gordon takes 12 or more weeks before he is ready for game action, the Royals will find themselves in an incredibly difficult spot of whether or not he should be included on a postseason roster when he has hardly played for two and a half months. 

Long story short, if the news comes back that Gordon has sustained a grade 3 groin strain, then the team must approach this as though they will not see Gordon again this season. Prior to the injury, I had enough faith in Jarrod Dyson that I didn't believe the Royals needed to acquire a corner outfielder to replace the lackadaisical Alex Rios. Now, I believe it is quite certain that the Royals should seek out replacement opportunities. 

I view this situation in two parts. First, there is the 2015 problem. Rios is terrible and now Gordon is hurt. The Royals need to fill two outfield spots and they have a solution for one (Dyson). The second part of this is 2016. While the injury will increase the likelihood that Alex Gordon returns to Kansas City for the 2016 season, there is still a very good chance that he departs. If this is the case then the Royals return just Lorenzo Cain, Jarrod Dyson, and Paulo Orlando. Even if Dyson proves that he can play everyday in 2016, the Royals still need another starting outfielder. 

If you find an outfielder now, you get the benefit of improving the roster for the remainder of 2015 by pushing aside Rios, while also getting a step ahead in setting the 2016 roster. If by chance the Royals are able to bring back Gordon for 2016, then they again can push Dyson into a rotation role as the fourth outfielder and will be even stronger a unit for the 2016 campaign.

It is my opinion that the outfielder the Royals need will come via trade. Some would argue that there are capable internal replacements and here is how I would counter on each of those options.

Paulo Orlando - Fourth Outfielder

Brett Eibner - The former second round pick has some promise. He is 26, extremely streaky at the plate, plays good defense, and has a good arm. He is also hitting .292/.349/491 in Omaha. There is a part of me that believes he could grab and handle an everyday job. However, I also know that Werner Park heavily favors right handed power and as a 26 year old, he needs to prove it in the Majors. The scenario that I prefer is that the Royals acquire a starting RF and Eibner gets called up in replace of Orlando or as a 5th outfielder. Given his power from the right side, I think he complements the roster better than Orlando. There is already a ton of speed, but a power bat off the bench would be a bonus and Eibner could even wind up in the small side of a platoon with Dyson.

Whit Merrifield - Based on reports it sounds like Merrifield could be the guy to replace Gordon on the roster. The former 9th round pick is an easy player to root for, but he is 26 and is currently slugging .392 in a hitter friendly league. He gets bonus points for being able to play both outfield and second base, but I don't see the South Carolina product as an answer.

Moises Sierra/Reymond Fuentes/Jose Martinez - All of these guys have done enough to get a chance to fill a void on the roster for a little bit. However, the Royals aren't filling this hole with any of these retreads.

Lane Adams - At 25 years old, the toolsy outfielder is barely hanging on to the prospect label. He's excellent defensively, can steal bases, and shows flashes at the plate. He received a cup of coffee last September and the organization loves his athleticism. Similar to Eibner, I think he is a guy who could complement Dyson well in a platoon role for left field. However, he isn't going to ever be an everyday outfielder.

Jorge Bonifacio/Bubba Starling - I've lumped these two 22 year olds together because I think at this point they have similar trajectories. Both could be in a position at some point in 2016 to deserve a look as an everyday guy. At this point, it is clear that both need more minor league seasoning. Unless the Royals decide to go the Salvador Perez route  in their developmental approach, neither of these prospects will be slam dunks to deserve a Major League spot at the beginning of 2016.

All of this brings us back to my initial conclusion. The Royals need to add a corner outfielder to the roster sometime in the next few weeks. It will be an enormous boost to the team for 2015, and will also better position the team for success in 2016. 

I've been wanting to get going on here for awhile, but have been considering who other options. It is good to be back and I'll try to break down some specific trade targets over the next few weeks. 

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams! 

An Ode to Mr. Zoombiya

The Royals entered the offseason with three positions to fill. Fans and the front office agreed the team needed to find a right fielder (to replace the departing Nori Aoki), a designated hitter (to replace the departing Billy Butler), and a starting pitcher (to replace the departing James Shields). It was generally accepted that the voids would need to be filled with individuals outside the organization and thus far Kansas City has checked two of the items off their list.

I'm not going to spend time in this post analyzing the Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales additions, but instead I am going to ask a simple question. Why couldn't the team have filled right field with an in-house option? No, I'm not talking about Carlos Peguero. I'm talking about Jarrod Dyson.

Unlike Peguero there has been absolutely zero buzz about the possibility of breaking camp with Jarrod Dyson starting in the outfield. Why not?

The simple answer is that Dyson looks like a fourth outfielder. He is an excellent defensive replacement and an enormous weapon off the bench as a pinch runner. The former 50th round pick is so good in the fourth outfielder role that narrative dictates that is all he is. Never mind the fact that despite only receiving 290 plate appearances and playing in just 120 games, Dyson ranked 36th among outfielders in fWAR in 2014 and 5th on the team.

At this point many people tend to point out that Dyson's numbers were inflated due to the fact that he faced predominately right handed pitching last season. This is true. In 2014, Dyson faced right handed pitching in 81% of his plate appearances. Given that the typical regular sees right handed pitching approximately 70% of the time, we should adjust our expectations to reflect that number.

In order to get a more accurate feel on what Dyson's production would be over the course of the season, I broke out The Spitter. If you are unfamiliar with The Spitter or new to this blog, it is a projection system that weights batted ball data and is able to "spit" out a projection. The Spitter can then take these numbers and provide a wOBA and a WAR total for the player. I've added 2014 park factors to the Spitter, so the numbers are even more accurate now than they have been in the past. Like any projection system, The Spitter occasionally whiffs, but a vast majority of last season's projections were extremely accurate.

Since we aren't actually creating a projection for Dyson, I have adjusted The Spitter to give us full season results had Dyson maintained his contact rates against lefties and faced them in 30% of 600 plate appearances, as well as maintaining his contact rates against righties in the same plate appearance size.

Enough with the technical mumbo-jumbo. Had our hero been able to keep up his performance over a 600 plate appearance sample his season line should have ended up looking like this:

Jarrod Dyson 2014: .270/.329/.330, .297 wOBA and 1.34 WAR.

This might not seem like a very impressive player, but this fails to consider Dyson's defense. When we plug in a positional adjustment and factor in Dyson's UZR from 2014, The Spitter increases Dyson's WAR  to 5.23. This tally would have ranked 22nd in baseball among all players and 10th among outfielders. Again, those results are not fudged. They are simply an extrapolation of the numbers that Dyson posted in 2014.

By the way, we still haven't accounted for baserunning. According to Fangraphs, Dyson was worth approximately 4.5 runs on the bases in 2014. When you consider that he would be on the bases 196 times in our extrapolated sample, compared to just 92 in reality, all of the sudden Dyson's legs add in another 9.6 runs in value. This would increase Dyson's WAR to approximately 6.28, ranking him as the 6th most valuable outfielder in baseball.

At this point, things are starting to get a little crazy. How could Mr. Zoombiya really be worth nearly 6.3 wins above replacement? It just doesn't make sense. Blatantly, this thought doesn't fit the narrative. Dyson is a fourth outfielder. He is a former 50th round pick that has scraped out a career with his legs to earn a few seasons in the Show. He sure as hell doesn't look like a 6 win player.

What we have to realize is that Dyson doesn't look like a starting player, because his value comes in things that are more difficult to see. He isn't bopping home runs. He isn't hitting .320. He isn't posting 100 RBI seasons. He is a world class runner, He does get on base at a decent clip. He did post the highest UZR/150 out of all players with over 600 innings in the field.

For those of you that know me, you know that I have long been a Jarrod Dyson fan. I've defended him when few others would and I would loudly proclaim that his arm was vastly underrated until finally it wasn't. But do I think that Jarrod Dyson is a top ten outfielder in the Major Leagues? No. I do not.

I do think that given a full time job, it would be safe to project Dyson as a 3.5 win player in 2015.  He might have a skill set that will cause his value to drop off quicker than the average outfielder, but he isn't going to become an average runner between now and April 6.

The Royals just paid Alex Rios $11 million hoping that he will turn back into the 3 win player that he was in 2013. Jarrod Dyson will make a fraction of that cost as a first time arbitration eligible player this year and he was worth 3 Wins Above Replacement in a part time role last season. Not to mention, Dyson won't be eligible for free agency until after the 2017 season.

For guys like Jarrod Dyson sometimes it is impossible to overcome the narrative and get the shot they deserve. Regardless, I'll be in Kansas City on Opening Day sitting in section 118, wearing my Mr.Zoombiya jersey. If you can find me, we'll get a drink and and dream about what Dyson could be have been as the Royals' everyday centerfielder.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

Aoki in Center

In just 10 days since pitchers and catchers have reported, one common article topic has been the importance of Lorenzo Cain's health. On Sunday, the Kansas City Star's Andy McCullough brought us another one of these articles which you can read here. I don't deny the importance of Lorenzo Cain. If the man can stay healthy and hit just a little he would be a very valuable player for virtually every team in baseball. However, I don't want to talk about Lorenzo Cain's health twice in two weeks. Instead, I want to bring to light this nugget in the article:

"Yost has floated the idea of using right fielder Nori Aoki in center. Aoki played there 18 times during two seasons in Milwaukee."

If you are a reader of this blog, you know how much I like versatility. Determining whether or not Aoki can handle center during spring training is definitely advantageous for the Royals in 2014. But I also know that the Royals currently are planning to carry both Justin Maxwell and Danny Valencia, which would mean no middle infielder on the roster. Personally, I find it unlikely that the Royals will be able to make it long without a back up middle infielder and so I wonder if this Aoki in center talk is laying the groundwork for a Dyson versus middle infielder roster battle.

Let's face it, if Aoki logs time in center this Spring and looks good it definitely decreases the importance of Jarrod Dyson. If Yost finishes camp and is confident in Aoki's ability it wouldn't shock me at all to see both Valencia and Maxwell on the roster in addition to a utility man.

It would be a shame for the Royals to lose Dyson in such a way. His speed is game changing and as a back up there is definitely value in him pinch running late in close games. Also, where would the Royals be left when Lorenzo Cain gets injured? At that point, they'd have to bring up Carlos Peguero or Jimmy Paredes to be the back up outfielder and you have no one who can back up Aoki in center.

I hope the Royals realize that Dyson is too valuable of a commodity to simply move at the end of spring training. In fact, one could argue that given the importance of each game, his pinch running ability will be more important in 2014 than it has ever been. I've always been a Dyson fan, so I hope that I'm over analyzing here. At the same time, I do think the Royals need to find a way to fit a back up middle infielder on to the roster.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

Royals Roster Crunch

Yesterday, our fearless leader Dayton Moore delivered us his annual State of the Royals address. Aside from inspiring our squad to go out there and win the big one, GMDM also had some thoughts on the roster crunch. This quote is taken from Jeffrey Flanagan's article on the address, which you can read in full here.

"Moore indicated the team almost surely will break camp with 12 pitchers. He also said the team was leaning toward carrying five outfielders."

Of course, if we do the math we can determine that 25 minus 12 pitchers minus 5 outfielders minus 2 catchers leaves 6 infielders. According to Flanagan, Valencia is a "virtual lock" for the roster because he is out of options and under team control through 2017. Who knows if this is Flanagan blowing smoke or if Dayton Moore has actually stated that is the case. If it's true that Valencia will be another piece to the puzzle, then that means there will not be a backup middle infielder. This is something that I have a hard time imagining.

The ideal way to handle this situation would be to only carry 11 pitchers. Given the strength of the Royals bullpen and the number of innings that the starters should eat, I would say the Royals are better positioned than most teams to carry just 11. This would allow the Royals to have Justin Maxwell, Jarrod Dyson, Valencia, plus a middle infielder on the team.

If we assume that the Royals will carry 12 pitchers and a back up middle infielder, then that leaves just two spots between Dyson, Maxwell, and Valencia. Personally, I think Dyson's speed get him a spot. This would leave the Royals to choose between a platoon option/pinch hitter for third base or the outfield. Since Gordon and Aoki don't have extreme platoon splits and Mike Moustakas does, I think Valencia would make more sense for this roster.

Losing Maxwell would be a tough pill to swallow after his performance following his acquisition in August. There hasn't been much suggestion that the Royals are considering parting ways with Maxwell, but there is going to be a crunch. The Royals have invested in both Maxwell and Valencia. For Maxwell they gave up the back end potential of Kyle Smith. For Valencia they gave up an outfielder under control for six more seasons. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams

Royals Trade Lough for Valencia

In another sneaky SABR move by the Royals front office David Lough was sent to the Inner Harbor for right hand hitting, OBP deprived Danny Valencia. It didn't take the Royals Twitterverse more than an infield pop up's worth of time to realize that Valencia hits left handers at a decent clip and would be an ideal platoon partner to incumbent third baseman, Mike Moustakas.

But then...

#Royals' Dayton Moore also tells me Valencia won't platoon with Moose: “But that’s not to say Ned won’t match up in certain situations.”
— Jeffrey Flanagan (@jflanagankc) December 18, 2013

So the plot thickens.

Actually, it was extremely predictable that Dayton Moore would hesitate to label this as a platoon. There are too many factors at play. The most important of which being that Kansas City doesn't want to officially label Mike Moustakas as a platoon player. Ideally, Moustakas hits in 2014 like the prospect experts all expected him to. Yes, he has been terribly disappointing thus far in his Major League career, but there are still well respected people in the industry that expect much bigger things from Moustakas moving forward.

Nonetheless, if the Royals find themselves in a platoon situation in 2014, they could have done much worse than Danny Valencia. In 428 career plate appearances versus left handed pitching, the former 19th round selection has hit .329/.367/.513 against southpaws. Last year alone he torched lefties to the tune of a .371/.392/.639 line.

Individually, here are The Spitter's projections for Mike Moustakas and Danny Valencia for 2014 (adjusted to 600 plate appearances):

• Mike Moustakas: .237/.290/.379 with 15 home runs, a .290 wOBA and a 1.98 WAR.
• Danny Valencia: .261/.290/.445 with 20 home runs, a .312 wOBA and a 1.29 WAR.

Basically, you have a couple of guys with poor contact and even poorer walk rates. Moustakas comes in with a higher WAR thanks to an above average glove, while Valencia is below average at third. Here is what we get if we run it as a platoon between the two players with a 30/70 split in favor of Moustakas.

• .265/.307/.437 with 19 home runs, a .319 wOBA and a 2.90 WAR. 

What we see here is that if the Royals did go with a true platoon from the offset, Danny Valencia would compliment Moustakas extremely well and raise the overall production from third base by about a win.Of course, if Mosutakas does prove that he is more than a platoon player, your problem is solved anyway. If implemented correctly, this is the kind of sly move that an organization can make to grab an extra win. 

Now as for where Valencia fits into the roster puzzle. Valencia is out of options (reason why he appears to be more than a Brandon Wood, worst case scenario back up plan to Moustakas). The way the current bench sets up is backup catcher, Emilio Bonifacio, Justin Maxwell, and Jarrod Dyson. This would give the Royals 13 hitters on their active roster. 

The wise thing for the Royals to do would be to carry 14 hitters. The rotation is full of innings eaters (except for the 5 spot which figures to be occupied by either Yordano Ventura or Danny Duffy). There are also enough arms in Omaha to enable a sort of shuttle system that can stretch the bullpen deeper than a typical 6 man pen can. Dayton Moore has displayed the creativity to successfully utilize a psuedo shuttle system in the past and I believe he can do it again.

By carrying 11 pitchers instead of 14, it would enable the Royals to truly platoon Moustakas and Valencia, while also keeping a balanced bench with a nice array of skills. Maxwell could pinch hit against lefties. Dyson and Bonifacio can both run. Maxwell can hit for power. Dyson can get on base. Between Dyson and Bonifacio you have every spot on the diamond covered in case of injury or the need of a defensive replacement. 

I'm disappointed with the Royals decision to DFA George Kottaras. I still think it could wind up costing them a win. However, I think they have positioned themselves well to have a very nice bench in 2014. What is more likely to happen is that Kansas City will opt to go with the 12 man staff that they have had through a majority of the Dayton Moore era. If I had to guess, this would be it for Jarrod Dyson. 

As for David Lough, he will always be a personal favorite of mine. He is an extremely personable individual and always has a smile on his face. His rookie season was fantastic to watch and he played an enormous role in the Royals second half resurgence. I wish him all the best and I'm looking forward to watching him in an Oriole jersey next season. #YoLough.

Dyson's Goals

"I would at least say 50 (steals). I got 30 last year and my numbers weren't even close to what I just said (.280 batting average, over .350 OBP). I just want to do whatever it takes to help this team win." -Jarrod Dyson

At first glance, it seems as though these goals might be a bit reaching for Jarrod Dyson. After all, in 102 games last season Dyson hit just .260/.328/.322 with 30 steals. Of course, as of now Dyson might have difficulty finding the field enough to compile 50 stolen bases. In fact, when I was talking about Dyson's goals with fellow Royal Revival blogger Paden Bennett, he commented that Dyson should be starting over Jeff Francoeur.

Personally, I think the best situation for Dyson and the Royals would be a Dyson-Francoeur platoon in 2013. Dyson's goals might seem a bit reaching at first glance, but last season against righties Dyson managed to hit .275/.340/.349. On a personal level, Dyson's best shot to achieve his personal goals would likely come as a member of a platoon where his poor performance against lefties wouldn't factor in as much to his overall line.

The steals will be harder to get as a part of a platoon, but starting against righties 110-120 times, plus the opportunity to pinch run in every other close game should afford Dyson plenty of opportunities. Of course, as we know, over his career Jeff Francoeur is much better against lefties than he is right handers. Here is a quick look for what the production might look like for a Dyson-Frenchy platoon.

In order to arrive at these numbers I took the 2012 splits versus right handers for Dyson and the career numbers versus left handers for Francoeur and then condensed them into a 650 plate appearance sample. I then weighted Dyson's numbers at .7 and Francoeur's at .3 because I felt as though this would be a similar ratio to how often the Royals face right handed versus left handed pitchers.

Here is the line that the Royals could expect barring no improvement from either Dyson or Francoeur's 2012 performance: .260/.323/.361. This would equate to an OPS .034 points than Dyson in 2012 and .019 points higher than Francoeur's.

It should be noted, that despite a career long history of quality performance against southpaws, 2012 Jeff Fancoeur actually only recorded an OPS of .695 against them. For his career, Francoeur boasts a .820 OPS against pitches coming from the opposite side of the rubber. If you conduct this same exercise, but with career splits adjusted for 650 plate appearances and then weighted, a Dyson-Francoeur platoon would post a line of .270/.329/.390, good for a .719 OPS.

I'm not expecting the Royals to take such an approach. Also, the best case is that Francoeur can find his 2011 form and Dyson is a fourth outfielder/pinch runner. However, injuries happens so my guess is that Dyson will get plenty of playing time. My stance on Dyson remains the same. He is a very valuable piece as a fourth outfielder, and might even be a second division regular. If Frenchy struggles out of the gate, a platoon should be in order until another option can be found.

Royals add to Outfield "Depth"

The Kansas City Royals added another piece to the Omaha Storm Chasers outfield today when they announced the signing of former Royal great Endy Chavez to a Minor League deal.

Chavez has played in 974 games at the Major League level. Over that time he has hit .269/.286/.333 but has received enormous praise for his glove work. In fact, Chavez may lay claim to the greatest catch in MLB postseason history. If you don't remember it, you can view it here.

Just a few days ago, I wrote a few paragraphs regarding the type of outfielder the Royals could target to complement Jeff Francoeur. I talked about a left handed hitter, or at least a guy that could eventually partner in platoon and also a guy that was very good defensively, so that if he didn't hit, he could at least offer some upgrade in the form of his glove. On the surface it appears that the left handed Endy Chavez fits that exact mold. However, a closer examination would reveal that Chavez isn't quite the answer that one might have hoped.

While Endy Chavez was an absolute stud defensively for a four year period from 2006-09, his defense has sunk to just slightly above average over the past couple of seasons. Also, despite being left handed, Chavez has never displayed much in the way of a platoon advantage and his .676 career OPS against right handers is almost identical to the .675 he posts against southpaws.

Ultimately, the signing was just a Minor League deal and you will never hear me criticize a Minor League free agent signing. There is no point. The risk is so insignificant that there isn't any reason for people to be critical of these types of additions. My only point, is that Chavez doesn't fill the role that I have been advocating the Royals to attempt to fill. This doesn't mean I don't like the addition from a depth standpoint, merely that I believe Kansas City should continue to search for a lefty outfielder that could complement Frenchy on the Major League roster. I do not think Chavez is that guy.

As of now, the Royals are likely out on any other Minor League additions in the outfield department. They already have Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, Francoeur and Jarrod Dyson for the Major League roster, David Lough fighting for the 5th outfield spot and Xavier Nady, Willy Taveras, and now Chavez on Minor League deals. Basically as of now they have nine players between the outfields of Kansas City and Omaha. The Royals don't necessarily need to, but I still believe it makes sense to add one more outfielder on a Major League deal for 2013, if the right player presents himself. With Cain's injury history, Francoeur's poor performance, and some question marks that still surround Dyson, depth could be extremely important.

The Right Field Problem

Over the last couple of weeks, I cannot help but to think a lot about the Royals problem in right field. Thanks to the confidence of Bob Dutton's tweets, I have resigned myself to the fact that Jeff Francoeur will be the guy entering 2013. However, while Dutton has made this point very clear, he has also been clear that should Frenchy struggle out of the gate, the Royals will search out alternatives. Dutton has also suggested that the Royals might seek out a low cost option to push Francoeur this Spring.

The way I see it, this leaves Kansas City with two realistic low cost options. The first of which is to sign a cheap defensive oriented type. The second is to find a left handed option that could eventually platoon with the French Man.

By searching out a defensive option, Kansas City could open the season with the individual as the fourth or fifth outfielder. If Francoeur struggles out of the gate as most expect, the defensive oriented guy can provide slide in for Francoeur as a placeholder until a better option can be acquired. By getting a player that is good defensively, the Royals can at least obtain some sort of value upgrade over Francoeur who will likely be bad both at the plate and on the diamond.

The other option is likely a pipe dream out of the gate, but might be a possibility as the season progresses. The solution here would be to sign a hitter that excels against right handed pitching. For his career, Francoeur possesses a .820 OPS against left handed pitchers, but just a .702 OPS against righties. Of course, in 2013, Francoeur was awful against both, but even then his OPS was 43 points higher against southpaws.

It is hard for me to imagine the Royals totally cutting ties with Jeff Francoeur, but I could envision a scenario in which they first try to mitigate his poor performance by platooning him with another player. Of course, the Royals don't necessarily have to go outside of the organization to find Francoeur a platoon partner.

Jarrod Dyson and David Lough are both left handed and could settle into a platoon with Frenchy by season's end. Toying around with the projection machine, assuming last year's production, a platoon of Dyson and Francoeur could be worth about a 1.3 wins more than Francoeur playing everyday. This may not sound like a large amount, but when you are in Kansas City's position a single win could go a long way in improving the team's playoff odds.

Jarrod Dyson: Replacement Player

Jarrod Dyson has played in 30 games this season for the Kansas City Royals. Since Lorenzo Cain went down with a leg injury, Dyson has basically been the everyday guy patrolling center field. He's definitely had his ups and downs. In his first stint as starter, his range allowed him to get to balls that other center fielders couldn't dream of reaching. In that same time he couldn't get those balls into the webbing and failed to convert the plays into outs. It was easy to cast blame on the former 50th rounder for several losses, despite that being unfair.

Dyson also started out pretty bad at the plate. Clearly, he was out matched by Major League pitching. Then from 5/1-5/15, Dyson hit .327/.419/.385 and some were wondering if Lorenzo Cain would ever get his opportunity in the Kansas City outfield. Since May 15, Dyson has hit just .167/.217/.214.

The defense has improved for Dyson, although he isn't wowing on the eye test, and he still possesses a negative  UZR. (I know it's early and an incredibly small sample for such data.) Here we are on June 1, and according to Fangraphs, Dyson is a "replacement player."

As of this moment Dyson is the mysterious player that all other players are judged against. He doesn't hurt the team, but he certainly isn't helping its cause. It's believed that a team full of replacement players would win approximately 35-45 games. Dyson is currently the equivalent of the caliber of player that could be picked up off waivers or a AAA roster at any point in time.

There are a ton of players currently playing in baseball that have negative fWAR values. In fact two of those have played center field this season for the Kansas City Royals. In his short time as the everyday guy, Dyson hasn't established himself as the man for the future. However, I have to appreciate his play. He hasn't solidified the center field position, but he has provided the Royals with a reliable option that they can pencil into the lineup day in and day out, at least for the time being.

As has always been thought, moving forward Dyson can still prove to be a very valuable piece as a fourth outfielder. If one day the Royals are in a race and an outfielder falls to injury down the stretch, Kansas City could do much worse than giving Jarrod Dyson everyday at bats. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Jarrod Dyson: replacement player.

Prospect Countdown: #21 Jarrod Dyson

#21 Jarrod Dyson


Age: 27
Position:
Height: 5-9
Weight: 160
B/T: L/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 50th Round of the 2006 Amateur Draft
From: MComb, MS



Jarrod Dyson makes this countdown not because of his upside, but because of his floor. Dyson a couple of plus plus tools, both of which are thanks to his blazing speed. Dyson may not be the fastest player in the organization at the moment, but Dyson could be the fastest player  on any Major League roster.

Dyson has a developed skill on the bases and unlike Joey Gathright he has learned to use his speed to steal bases. He gets great reads, fantastic jumps, and there aren't many catchers in the league that have a chance at throwing him out at second base. The Royals call him their "offensive closer" because if they need a run to win the game and he is on first with no outs, you can bet he's going to score.

Thanks to his speed, Dyson is also a fantastic center fielder, but again unlike Joey Gathright, Dyson knows how to use his speed. He takes awesome routes and has his name in the Royals record books for most putouts by an outfielder in a single game. If Dyson was given an entire season in center it would be interesting to see what kind of putout numbers that he could put up. Much like Alcides Escobar, he wouldn't have to hit much to have a positive value.

Dyson is likely better suited as a fourth outfielder, where he can be used as a spot starter, defensive replacement, and pinch runner. With his plus speed and defense he could be extremely valuable in this role. Right now the Royals have Mitch Maier under contract in 2012. Maier is out of options, so he is likely the only player on the Royals depth chart that Dyson would have to pass to earn a roster spot.

My hope is that October 3, Jarrod Dyson is standing on first with no outs in the bottom of the 9th. Jose Valverde is on the mound and if Dyson scores the Royals win the division. With everyone in the park knowing a steal is on the way, Dyson takes second anyway. The next at bat Dyson takes third on a grounder to second, and then scores on a sacrifice fly. Although, I'll admit I'd settle for a division title in any form.

"That's what speed do."

Prospect Countdown: 25-21

25. Noel Arguelles LHP

Once upon a time, Arguelles was trapped behind the curtain of communism along with Boston shortstop Jose Iglesias. There they both starred for the Cuban 18 and under National team until they defected in July of 2008. Unlike most Cuban defectors Noel Arguelles defected at a very young age of 20. Because of this he only played in the Cuban League for a short amount of time and didn't post very impressive results while he was there.

Nonetheless the Royals eventually shocked the baseball world by signing Arguelles to a $6.9 million major league deal roughly 13 months ago. In his time pitching for the Cuban national team, Arguelles displayed a fastball that set in the low 90s with a curveball and changeup that could both be above average offerings. Most believed that with the combination of his receiver like build (6-3, 195) and the potential of his stuff he would have been a sure fire first round pick had he been eligible.

Unfortunately Arguelles had pitched for about fourteen months straight when he signed the contract with the Royals and they elected to shut him down for awhile to protect his young arm. However, when his stuff didn't come back like they had hoped the opted to have him undergo shoulder surgery, which took place in October.

Arguelles is throwing in Spring Training and early reports are that he should begin the year in Kane County or Wilmington and that his stuff has fully returned to pre-defection form. Due to his being on the 40 man Arguelles should rise fast and join the four headed lefty monster that is ahead of him.

24. Derrick Robinson CF

Prior to be drafted Derrick Robinson set a record for the 60 yard dash at the scouting combine he took part in. He also had a football scholarship in hand to attend college for his hometown team: the Florida Gators. Due to the football scholarship most teams were scared off from Robinson entering the draft. Robinson though was selected by Kansas City in the fourth round of 2006 draft.

At the time the Royals were in the transition process of installing a new General Manager. Due to his role in the scouting department of the Atlanta Braves, Dayton Moore did not officially oversee the 2006. Meaning that for the draft day festivities the Royals were without a GM. How much influence Dayton Moore had on the selections made that June day will probably never be known.

Dayton Moore was however in charge of what picks the Royals would sign and how much would be spent and thus began the Royals new mentality of overslot expenditures. It was not apparent as much in 2006 as it would be later on (you can't blame DM for not wanted to pay a bunch of money that he wasn't necessarily personally as high on) but the Royals did decide to sign Robinson to a deal for $850,000.

Perhaps Moore liked Robinson while he was with the Braves and was delighted that the Royals took one of the guys that he had targeted. Maybe Moore accidentally let the name slip as he was moving his things into his new office. Or maybe Moore realized that there was no top end speed in the entire system and that Robinson could immediately change that. Whatever the reason Moore shelled out the money and got Robinson signed.

Over the next four seasons Robinson rewarded the Royals 850K investment by stealing 187 bases. Oh, I guess I should mention he also didn't bat above .245 during that time. But hey he showed some flashes. Heading into the 2010 season I called for a breakout from Robinson and while many still aren't on the D-Rob bandwagon, I am surprised at how many are growing even less intrigued by his tools even though he just put together the best offensive season of his career.

In his twenty-two year old season Robinson was playing centerfield and batting leadoff for the top minor league team in baseball. There all he "did was win, win, win no matter what." He hit .286/.345/.380 while stealing 50 bases. For the first time in his career, Robinson hit and got on base. It is true that his strikeout totals were still high, but he showed tremendous improvement in his first trip to the upper levels of the minor leagues.

Many people have referenced how several Royals prospects' numbers in 2010 could be attributed to the Coors Field like park factors that Arvest Ballpark provided. I am not sure if I buy into that whole thing, but I will admit that the park did play into the hitter's favor in 2010. (Look at the Naturals pitchers numbers and tell me it was Coors Field.) I bring up this point though not to discredit Robinson's numbers, but instead to accredit them.

Unlike his fellow Natural counterparts Robinson actually hit better on the road than at home. This is probably because his game isn't as affected by park factors as the other hitters. So I believe that this means Robinson's "breakout" season was less a result of Arvest Ballpark than his actual progression. This is a very good thing for the fans in the D-Rob camp.

Also, unlike Moustakas or Giavotella, D-Rob is more of the soft spoken type. He keeps everything extremely even keel and if you only watch him once or twice this could be taken as him not caring. But I believe that this is a good mentality from a guy that would project as a leadoff hitter, given that it is a spot in the lineup that absolutely requires consistency.

Robinson has the speed to be a plus defender, but at times he does tend to make poor reads on balls. However, if given a couple more years in the minors it isn't unreasonable to think that at the same age as Dyson he could be as effective in center. The bigger concern with Robinson 's defense is his arm which is fringe average at best. If he can improve his routes and keep a quick release he should be able to get by, but it will never strike fear into the hearts of tagging runners.

With Dyson and Cain now ahead of D-Rob and Eibner possibly behind him, the pressure will continue to be on him to produce. Given Robinson's age and tools I do believe that the potential is higher for him then the two guys ahead of him and if he can continue to improve he could very conceivable pass both on the depth chart. As for Eibner many project him to wind up on a corner. So in my mind Robinson still has a very real chance at being the long term solution for Kansas City in centerfield.

Due to a crowded projected outfield in Omaha I expect Robinson to return to Northwest Arkansas to start the 2011 season. However, if he can get off to a good start and some things break right for him and a spot in Omaha opens up he could find himself donning a Storm Chaser jersey sooner rather than later.

23. Tim Melville RHP



Tim Melville represents two major aspects in the change of draft philosophy in the Kansas City Royals. First: control the backyard. Melville attended high school at Wentzville Holt, which is located just outside St. Louis, Missouri. Second: draft the best player available and screw the slotting system. Melville was considered by most to be an upper first round draft choice when he entered his senior campaign. However, due to signability and a slightly disappointing season he fell like a rock on draft day. The Royals drafted him in the fourth round and agreed to pay him first round money and seven figures to join the organization. Victory.

Melville pitched extremely well in his first full season and nearly averaged a k per inning. In 2010, he was to head to Wilmington and many (myself included) expected him to dominate in the Carolina League circuit. He didn't.

His strikeout rate dipped just a bit, his walk rate increased just a bit, and his era shot up by a over a run. He pitched a couple of gems, but there were too many games in which he got hit way too hard. Overall the change in his peripherals don't really match up with the change in his era.

Melville pitches from a 3/4 arm slot and has a good projectable frame. He has fastball that sits in the low 90s that sometimes even hits 95 or 96. The problem that he tends to find is that he pitches to contact too much and doesn't effectively attack hitters. His curveball displays a 12-6 drop and could one day be a plus pitch and his change up lags behind, but could one day be an above average offering as well.

The only pitcher that got as good as reviews in instructional league as Melville was fellow local overslot product Jason Adam. The Royals have time to be very patient with Melville due to the pitching depth in the system, but his 2010 season was no reason to lose faith in the righty. He should return to Wilmington to begin 2011. Once again I expect him to post outstanding results.


22. Jarrod Dyson CF





In the same draft class that produced Derrick Robinson the Royals nabbed another speedster in the last round of the process: Jarrod Dyson. Despite being a college senior when drafted, Dyson has moved slowly through the Royals system. In 2010, as a twenty-five year old Dyson finally got his first cup of major league coffee.

His numbers weren't good, but during his brief stint he showed more power than he ever had in the minors, even hitting his second professional home run. His offensive output was disappointed but he did display why the Royals brass was so high on him despite his meager minor league numbers.

During his time in Kansas City Dyson stole safely in 9 out of 10 attempts and tied a Royals record for put outs in a single game. I am not sure that there is a better defensive outfielder in the entire organization and even if Dyson can't improve offensively he could find a bit of a career as a late game defensive replacement/pinch runner.

I like Dyson as a fourth outfielder. But at some point don't you have to hit to actually be considered a future starter? Ranking Dyson and Robinson was hard for me. I like Dyson's current abilities more and I believe that he is a more sure fire bet to have a major league career, because like I said he already has what it takes to be a fourth or fifth outfielder. But I believe that Robinson has shown more than Dyson with the stick and I wonder if in two years Robinson will be the same fielder that Dyson is.

In the end, I'm giving Dyson the nod, because he is closer and seems to be in more favor with the organization. I'd just like to see him hit some at the upper levels of the minors before the Royals hand him a starting job.

Dyson will see Kansas City at some point in 2011, although his future becomes a bit hazier with Lorenzo Cain in the fold. The Royals want both to start in Omaha and last I checked you typically only want 1 centerfielder at a time. With Dyson already proven in center they probably push him to left until Cain is promoted.

21. Louis Coleman RHP

When the Royals drafted Coleman in the fifth round of the 2009 draft, I decided to watch some of LSU's games in the college world series to get an early look at a prospect. Quickly Louis Coleman became a personal favorite as he guided LSU to a national title.

In college Coleman pitched primarily as a starter, but the Royals decided to make him into a reliever believing that the cross action of his delivery could be an extremely effective tool against right handed hitters. They were right.

Since he began his professional career the Royals have pushed Coleman up the ladder ad he has rewarded them with a 2.06 era in 113.2 innings pitched. He has averaged over a K an inning while giving up just 2.3 walks an inning. He has dominated.

Coleman has a low to mid 90s fastball, an above average slider in the low 80s, and lastly a changeup that could become an average offering. He has shown great command, but there are concerns that his delivery could be hard on his arm. This may be true but when a delivery is as deceptive as his is and such a critical part to a player's suggest there really isn't a reason to try and fix it. Hopefully by keeping Coleman in the pen the Royals can limit the stress on his arm and Coleman can continue to be a weapon.

Coleman has the opportunity to win a bullpen job out of camp, however given that he is not on the 40 man he will probably begin the season in Omaha. When he continues his success there he should be one of the first men promoted to the big league club in season. Coleman should one day join relief prospect Jeremy Jeffress, Patrick Keating, Tim Collins, and Blaine Hardy in what could be a lights out Royals bullpen.