In the Cross Hairs: Cameron Maybin

Over the next couple of weeks, I hope to take a look at several different players that the Royals could/should target via trade. As I highlighted here, I believe that the Royals should pursue an outfielder at this year's trade deadline. Also, according to Jon Heyman the Royals are actively searching the trade market for outfield help.

Royals, pirates among teams looking at outfield help

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) July 12, 2015

For these reasons, I'll probably focus my efforts on examining outfielders. Let's start with Atlanta Braves center fielder Cameron Maybin.

A former first round pick and top prospect, Maybin has for the most part failed to live up to the hype as a Major League player. However, the Asheville, North Carolina native has produced 9.3 fWAR over 641 career games, which translates to about 2.4 fWAR per 162. For comparison's sake, Alcides Escobar has been worth 2.1 fWAR per 162 throughout his career.

For his career, Maybin has hit .252/.317/.372. However, in 2015, Maybin has boosted that line to .289/.356/.418. Clearly, teams need to be wary of acquiring players when they are at peak performance and in this case, Maybin is having the best offensive season of his career (117 RC+). The question becomes is this luck driven or change driven?

In this particular circumstance, I believe there is a strong case that Maybin has turned a corner offensively. Although, I don't believe it do be quite as pronounced as the stats seem to indicate. To double check on this, I ran Maybin's contact rates through a xBABIP calculator to see what we should expect his line to be thus far this season.

• Actual: .289/.356/.418 with 8 HR
• xBABIP Adjusted: .303/.368/.433 with 8 HR

Now let's look at how his numbers change if we change his HR/FB% to league average of 10.5%:

•  .295/.361/.396 with 5 HR

Finally, how would the numbers look with Maybin's career HR/FB% instead of the 16% that he has blasted out in 2015.

• .293/.359/.386 with 4 HR

My personal conclusion is that as a 28 year old with regular playing time for the first time since 2012, Maybin has improved at the plate. He is posting a career high 9.3% walk rate and he is squaring the ball up more frequently than he has at any other point in his Major League career. What I don't buy is the sudden increase in power. However, even if you accept the final line that uses Maybin's career HR/FB% a .293/.359/.386 line would represent an enormous improvement of Alex Rios's .238/.266/.288. 

Of course when talking about Maybin the offense is only a portion of what intrigues me. Despite a career year at the plate, the numbers indicate that Maybin has struggled defensively in 2015. Defensive Runs Saved believes that Maybin has cost the Braves 14 runs this season. UZR has him at -7.2 runs through the first half. 

These numbers come as a bit of a surprise considering that through Maybin's first 8 seasons, he was worth on average about 3 runs saved per year. Nothing special, but a slightly above average defensive center fielder carries value and typically translates into an above average corner outfielder. Fortunately, for the Royals that is exactly where Maybin would wind up. 

While it isn't a slam dunk, my guess is that if Maybin were to move to a corner at Kauffman Stadium, his defense would play up in a tremendous way. The Royals have finally begun to realize that the uniqueness of Kauffman's spacious outfield can be an enormous competitive advantage. Essentially, by fielding 2 or 3 center fielders, there is enough space that the individual's fielding territories don't overlap which allows for maximum defensive effect. 

Maybin is currently owed about $3.5 million for the remainder of the 2015 season. He is under control at a very affordable $8 million for 2016 and has a $9 million team option for 2017 that includes a $1 million buyout. Overall, if the Royals were to acquire the Braves outfielder, the team would owe him a approximately $12.5 million guaranteed. Not only would that buy the Royals a fill in during Alex Gordon's time on the disabled list, but it would also check off a box on this winter's shopping list.

Another aspect that draws me to Maybin is the fact that he is right handed. I've made no secret that I believe Jarrod Dyson should be playing more often. If the Royals were to acquire Maybin they could put Dyson and Rios into a platoon at the other corner. Then when Gordon comes back, Maybin could take Rios's place with Dyson occasionally spelling him against right handed pitching. (Of course, my dream would be to DFA Rios and start both Maybin and Dyson everyday until Gordon returns. Sight.) If the Royals can manage to bring back Gordon for the 2016 season, I believe that it'd make more sense to acquire a right handed hitter than a lefty for the reason above. 

So would the Braves trade Maybin? What would it take? The answer to the first question is not obvious, but I believe the answer to be yes. The Braves are clearly in a rebuild mode. Despite their best efforts to keep things interesting in 2015, the team is now 7 games behind the Nationals in the NL East and 6 behind the Cubs for the second wild card.

EDIT: According to Bill Shanks the Braves are open for business and wouldn't refuse a strong trade offer for Maybin. Shanks believes the Braves could reasonably demand a prospect in a team's 5-10 range. For the Royals that zone preseason included: Hunter Dozier, Miguel Almonte, Foster Griffin, Scott Blewett, Jorge Bonifacio, and Christian Colon.

What would it take to acquire Maybin is a more difficult question to answer. Let's say we are optimistic and project Maybin to be worth 1 fWAR for the rest of 2015, 2.5 fWAR for 2016, and 2.5 fWAR. Let's say we don't discount future value and we value 1 fWAR at $8 million, which seems high. If we do all of these things, we find that Maybin is worth about $27 million in surplus value. (Considering the way we reached this figure, I believe this to be on the high end.)

Based on the work from The Point of Pittsburgh, this is roughly the equivalent of a pitching prospect in the #26-50 range and a pitching prospect in the #51-75 range. 

If we take a more pessimistic approach in how we value Maybin, we could reach the conclusion that he is worth more like $6-10 million in surplus value. This would make Maybin worth a border line top 100 prospect. 

Based off all of this, I could see the Braves and Royals coming together somewhere in between. Perhaps, one of the Royals top pitching prospects, plus another guy ranking in the 20-45 ranges of the Royals top prospects. This aligns well with what resident Braves fan Nick Allen guessed at on Twitter. He discussed the Braves desire to add arms and catching depth and throughout a Maybin for Brandon Finnegan and Zane Evans swap. 

It has been said before, but if the Royals do move a top prospect, it seems like Finnegan is the most likely to go. Finnegan was a beast last October, but the Royals approach to his development this season has at times been baffling. At this point, I think it is likely that the Royals view him as a reliever long term and with that being the case, his value could be higher as a trade commodity than as a building block for future teams. I also recall that from his MLB Network days that John Hart, President of Operations for the Atlanta Braves was a huge Miguel Almonte fan.

What do you think Royals fans? Would you trade either Brandon Finnegan or Miguel Almonte plus another low level prospect for Maybin? Let me know!

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

What Does Kimbrel’s New Deal Mean For Greg Holland?

The Atlanta Braves and All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel agreed to a 4-year, $42 million extension on Friday. The deal will pay Kimbrel $7 million in 2014 with increases up to $13 million in 2017. There are incentives that could increase the overall value and an option is also available for 2018. As Ken Rosenthal noted, the deal is the “largest extension for a closer pre-free agency.” Kimbrel was the latest arbitration-eligible Brave to sign a multi-year deal, joining Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward. Julio Teheran also signed a long-term contract last week.

The strategy of locking up young players is somewhat new in Atlanta, but not Kansas City. As we know, Alcides Escobar and Wade Davis are signed through 2017 and Salvador Perez is on the books through 2019. This leaves many Royals fans looking for the team to make a similar commitment to closer Greg Holland. After watching how the Braves and Kimbrel agreed to a deal, we may have an even clearer look at what Holland is worth. 

How did the process play out in Atlanta? One item to note is the Braves policy concerning arbitration-eligible players. Once the deadline passes for players and teams to exchange salary figures for arbitration, one-year salary discussions cease. People often refer to this as ‘file and trial.’ “It’s a very strict policy,” Braves GM Frank Wren said early this month. “We have no exceptions, unless talks are about a multi-year contract. That’s always been the policy.” Obviously, the Royals do not subscribe to such a policy, as Holland agreed to a one-year deal worth $4.675 million after numbers were exchanged. Holland asked for $5.2 million in arbitration and will make about 8.5 times what he earned in 2013. His 2013 salary ranks in the top ten for Major League closers. He is under team control until 2016.

The Braves submitted a number of $6.55 million for Kimbrel, while the closer felt he was worth $9 million (which is $3.75 million higher than any closer has made in his first arbitration-eligible year). Arbitration hearings can get ugly as the team and the player fight for every cent and the all-or-nothing decision will leave one side disappointed. To avoid going down that road with Kimbrel was huge for Atlanta. Especially since they would likely have to do it multiple times before he becomes a free agent. Both hearings and one-year contract discussions can take a toll and feelings can get hurt, which makes it harder to keep a player once he becomes a free agent. Now, Atlanta and Kimbrel have (theoretically) taken the salary concern off the table for the next four seasons. This will allow the closer to concentrate on the ninth inning, and the Braves to turn their attention to Andtrelton Simmons, Mike Minor and the rest of their young core players.

Now, what does this mean for Greg Holland? First, let’s compare the two closers.

PAST 3 SEASONS	2014 Age	G	IP	ERA	K%	K/9	BB/9	SV	SVO	WHIP	BA/OBP/SLG
Kimbrel	26	199	196.1	1.42	43.2	14.94	2.89	138	152	0.87	.157/.234/.216
Holland	28	170	183	2.11	34.2	12.39	3.3	67	76	1.08	.198/.271/.292

In my opinion, Craig Kimbrel is not only the best closer in baseball, it is not even close. I also think he is in the mix for the title of best pitcher. I know, Clayton Kershaw is on another planet, but so is Kimbrel. The guy is filthy. In the last three seasons, Kimbrel has had the best WHIP (0.87), ERA (1.48) and K/9 (14.9) of all pitchers who threw 200 innings or more. He has an absurd 381 strikeouts in 227.1 career innings. The question for Kimbrel (and any closer) is can he keep it up? Wren thinks so, and he put his money where his mouth is. According to Braves beat writer David O’Brien, Wren said “I’m not in the camp that says anyone can close games.” Kimbrel could be a once-in-a-generation closer. 

But what about Greg Holland? He has certainly been very good, and his stats are not that different from Kimbrel. But as far as a contract goes, two numbers are most important: 28 and 67. 

Holland will be 28 years old in 2014, and Kimbrel is only 26. This matters. The life of a closer is volatile, and not many in today’s game will have extended careers of dominance. At just 26 years old, the Braves felt Kimbrel was worth the risk. He has certainly proved over the last three seasons he is worth it. Braves fans were not so sure though, as there was plenty of talk that backed trading Kimbrel. At 28, Holland loses leverage in long-term contract talks. Do the Royals really want to commit to a closer until he is 32 or 33? 

That brings us to the number 67: The number of saves Holland has earned in his career to date. Let’s face it, Holland has not proven himself over a long enough timeline. Sure, 2013 was outstanding for Holland, but he has just one full season as a closer. Eric Gagne (2003), Robb Nen (2000) and BJ Ryan (2006) have put up some of the best closers’ seasons of all time. It can come and go in a flash. By contrast, Kimbrel has been the full-time closer in Atlanta since 2011 and has recorded 138 saves in that time. Kimbrel could fall apart at any moment, and past results are certainly not an indication of the future, but at least he has three amazing seasons worth of results to back up his new contract. Holland does not.

Also keep in mind the depth of the bullpens. If both closers went down with injury, the Royals would be in a better situation. Possible replacements for Holland include Kelvin Herrera, Louis Coleman, Aaron Crow or possibly even Luke Hochevar or Wade Davis - a very deep group. The Braves could turn to Jordan Walden or David Carpenter, and perhaps lefties Luis Avilan or Jonny Venters, if healthy. Personally, I feel Herrera is the best of the replacement bunch and could be a star closer. Since the Royals have a deeper pen, there is less pressure to commit to one guy.

I would certainly not fault the Royals if they take a wait-and-see approach on Holland for 2014. His salary is reasonable for both sides, and if he puts up similar numbers a contract extension would be justified for 2015 and beyond. I could also see a trade that opens the door for Herrera and allows for greater salary flexibility. I guess we will just have to wait and see. 

'My Guys' v Royals Part I: Freddie Freeman v Eric Hosmer

With spring training in full force, the first crack of the bat in the 2013 regular season is an ear shot away.  While I would call myself a fan of the Atlanta Braves, I am a bigger fan of the individuals around the league whose game I have grown fond of over the course of their careers.

During these posts, I want to compare some of these guys to their comparable Royals player and determine who a better bet is for 2013 and beyond.  This post will pair Eric Hosmer and Freddie Freeman; both are 23 year old first baseman with high expectations and two almost full years of major league experience to their name.

A look at the Past:

In 2011, Eric Hosmer and Freddie Freeman were the 8^th and 17^th best prospects, respectively, according to Baseball America.  Freddie Freeman was slated to become the opening day starter at first base for the Braves after only seeing a short September call-up in the majors prior.

Eric Hosmer was set to start the 2011 season in AAA grooming to become the 2012 everyday first baseman.  After a ridiculous stretch of 118 AB’s in AAA (1.107 OPS!) the Royals made the right decision and brought him up to the major league club to play every day.  The two had very similar 2011 seasons, with Hosmer getting the slight edge in numbers based on his display of speed (11 SB’s) and Freeman’s inability to make contact (22.4% K). 

In 2012 both players were looking to grow on their strong rookie campaign and try to avoid a sophomore slump.  Freddie Freeman was generally able to improve his game.  With a .259/.340/.456 triple slash line Freeman proved his ability to get on base enough and have enough power to be a decent major league first baseman at only 22 years old.  His batting average regressed back to the mean a little after a .282 AVG (.339 BABIP) in 2011 and .259 AVG (.295 BABIP) last season. The positive sign, however is that Freeman was able to draw more walks and improve his power to the point where his OBP/SLG/OPS were nearly identical to his rookie season.   A big reason for his success could lie in his ability to make solid contact with an impressive 26% line drive percentage, a very good number for any major league hitter. 

Freeman ended 2012 as a 2 WAR player, with his defense and speed limiting his overall value for his team.

Eric Hosmer was bitten with the sophomore slump bug, ending the season with a .232/.304/.359 line.  While Hosmer may have been a little unlucky with a .255 BABIP, his power decrease was of a bigger concern lowering his ISO to a pedestrian .127 after an impressive .172 in 2011, and five less homers in 35 more plate appearances.

Hosmer actually ended up a negative WAR number, as defensive metrics did not love his run prevention skills.  On the bright side, Hosmer did continue to show that he can run on the base-paths recording 16 steals in 17 attempts.  He also improved his walk rate and continued to strike out at a respectable 15.9 percent.  Freeman gets the clear nod in terms of 2012 success for his solid improvements at the plate.  

A glance at the present:

As we approach the 2013 season, both Freeman and Hosmer will have pressure on themselves to be productive middle of the order hitters for their respective teams.  Both myself and projection systems predict that both Hosmer and Freeman to improve in 2013.  Most see Freeman improving his home runs and cutting down on his strike-outs thus improving on AVG and SLG and ending with and OPS right around .830. 

Projections for Hosmer show an increased BABIP, 20 home run power and continued contact and speed skills capable of a 20/15 season and an OPS hovering .800.  I’d agree with the projections and give Freddie Freeman the edge for who will help their team more in 2013. 

A look beyond:

Looking forward it appears that both have immense upside.  Freeman has a higher floor based on his 2012 season and has plenty of room to be a .280/.380./.540 type hitter for multiple years.  He won’t be a superstar without cutting down his strikeouts and he will never have particularly good speed.  He is not a spectacular defender now but there is plenty of belief that he will become a plus fielder down the line.  It is also hard to tell how much, if any, Freeman will be able to improve on his power numbers. 

Hosmer has a higher ceiling in my mind, but has a lot of work to do to make up for a disappointing 2012.  Hosmer could be a stud first baseman with 30/20 skills and more walks than strike-outs.  First things first, Hosmer needs to find his power without sacrificing his other skills to do so.  Unlike Freeman, Hosmer has struggled to hit line drives (18.3%) and hit way too many ground balls (53.6%) in 2012, and that has to change.  He is athletic and has the ability to be a plus first baseman and could realistically move to the outfield if it made sense down the road. 

This is finally over:

These players are very similar in production, but in this battle I will have to go with MY BOY Freddie Freeman.  Freddie is my favorite player in baseball, so I have to admit I am not shocked with my conclusion.  Hosmer’s athletic ability leaves him nearly limitless in upside, but Freeman has a leg up on Hosmer right now and has the ability to slowly become one of the better hitters in baseball.  I’ll probably eat my words though because this Hosmer guy seems like he’ll be really good.