The hot stove is just getting warmed up, but we've already heard on several occasions that the Royals are interested in Darren O'Day and Joakim Soria. If you are like me then you read this and immediately brushed it off as the club doing their due diligence. Before I go any further, I want to be clear that I do believe that is the case. However, let's take a moment and allow ourselves to believe that the Royals are seriously considering adding Soria or O'Day to the back end of their bullpen.
O'Day has been one of the very best relievers in all of baseball over the last four seasons and in the last two seasons Soria has returned to his pre-2012 form. For the Royals, either pitcher would immediately be slotted into the back of the bullpen and join the triumvirate of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera, and Luke Hochevar. It is in large part due to this that the acquisition of either feels more like overkill and a waste of resources in regards to the 2016 team.
What if the Royals intention to pursue O'Day or Soria isn't because they want to make their back of the bullpen 4 deep? What if it is because they are looking to flip one of HHD for an outfielder, second baseman, or starting pitcher. It is no secret that this year's free agent market is exceptionally shallow in the relief pitching department. If the Royals could land O'Day or Soria, not only would it lessen the blow should they move Davis, Herrera, or Hochevar, but it would also help to corner the relief market. This would allow the Royals even more negotiating power.
If the Royals were to pursue this sign a relief pitcher, trade a relief pitcher then who would be most likely to be moved? Luke Hochevar would be the least painful to part with. He is owed $5.5 million in 2016 and then has a $7 million mutual option for 2017. Unfortunately, Hochevar is the least painful for a reason. His peripherals were very strong in 2015 and he is said to have closer stuff, but the 3.73 ERA and 4.00 WHIP don't scream closer.
Kelvin Herrera will make approximately $2.5 million in 2016 and has three more years of control before he hits free agency. This and his career 2.60 ERA would make him an extremely valuable commodity on the trade market. I think most in the industry would be perfectly fine with handing the ball to Herrera to get the final three outs of the game.
Wade Davis is owed $8 million for 2016, and has a team option of $10 million for the 2017 season. For arguably the top reliever in baseball this is a bargain. If the Royals signed O'Day to a two year $16 million contract, would it make sense to then slide him into the closer role and trade Davis? Royal Revival's sources have told us that last offseason the Royals were close to moving Davis for a starting pitcher.
Personally, I think this strategy makes sense. Obviously, there is risk that by dealing from a strength you could damage it to a point where it is no longer a strength. We also know that relief pitching is one of the most fickle things in all of baseball. The shelf life for top tier relievers typically isn't long. We were reminded of that just a couple of months ago by Greg Holland. It was rumored that Dayton Moore had opportunities to move Soria for quality packages prior to his injury. It bares to reason, that the Royals likely could have netter a good haul for Holland last offseason. In both cases Dayton Moore held on to his chips too long. Maybe this go around it will be different.
As far as what the Royals could acquire. I think there is good reason to believe that for either Davis or Herrera the Royals would be looking for a piece that they could immediately slide into the back of the rotation or a corner outfield spot. In addition to that they likely could get a prospect of decent value as well. As a long time Jackie Bradley Jr. fan, I'd love to see the Royals match up with Boston to bring the former 1st round pick to Kansas City. Boston is said to be in the market for back end help and there has been rumors that they'd move Bradley Jr or Rusney Castillo plus to get Aroldis Chapman.
As I said when I started this post, I don't believe the Royals will take this route. I'm not even sure that they should take this route. However, I think it is interesting food for thought. If the Royals were to sign O'Day then trade Wade Davis to Boston for Bradley Jr. plus a prospect, they would be able to fill one of their holes without dipping into their free agent budget. Of course, if Hochevar was enough to grab Bradley Jr. from Boston, I'd jump on that deal in a heartbeat.
Edit: Approximately 1 hour after the writing of this post, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com said that Jackie Bradley has generated trade interest from the Royals and Cubs.
Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams
Showing posts with label Greg Holland. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Greg Holland. Show all posts
Thursday, November 12, 2015
Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Perez and His Awesome Contract
In case you missed it, on Sunday the Kansas City Star's Andy McCullough brought us this article on the importance of a healthy Salvador Perez. There is no doubt that Salvy is one of the most important pieces to this Royals team if not the most important. We are entering Year 8 of the Process and Perez represents the crown jewel of the scouting and development system that Dayton Moore has constructed.
In just 253 professional games, Perez has accumulated 7.5 fWAR, which is easily more than any other hitter developed during the Dayton Moore regime. Perez has compiled this mark at quite the discount for Kansas City. In a time when amateur players are signing for millions of dollars, Perez signed for just $65,000.
Obviously, for Perez to develop into any sort of Major League contributor he would have proved to be an excellent investment, but Dayton Moore swooped in and signed him to a long term deal after just 39 professional games. The deal guaranteed Perez $7 million over the first five years of the deal and included three team options would could take the value all the way up to $21.75.
The deal was a masterstroke by Moore and will most likely be remembered as the best move of his tenure. The contract not only guaranteed a relatively small amount of money*, but also bought the Royals two additional years of team control. Making the deal even better has been the fact that the final three years of the contract are team options.
*Consider this, Eric Hosmer's signing bonus was $6 million. the Royals promised Perez $7 million and were able to secure 8 seasons of cost control for the catcher.
There was a stretch when Dayton Moore did a nice job of locking up several guys. Billy Butler signed a four year deal with a team option, when he was reaching arbitration for the first time. Alcides Escobar signed a four year deal with two team options when he was reaching arbitration. Alex Gordon signed a four year deal with an option when he was just a season from Free Agency.
Entering this offseason I was hopeful that the Royals could do the same for some of their current assets. I also knew that there weren't a ton of logical fits to be extension. Eric Hosmer would be a fantastic player to lock up long term, but he is a Boras client that long dreamed of playing for the Yankees. Danny Duffy, hasn't shown enough control/poise/durability to warrant a guaranteed rotation spot let along a long term contract. Mike Moustakas hit like crap last season. Lorenzo Cain is too injury prone for an extension. This only leaves a few options.
James Shields would have been awesome to extend, but given the current pitching market and the fact that he is now just a year from free agency, it seems that the Royals have missed their chance (if it ever existed). It also isn't a given that a Shields extension would even be worth it.
Greg Holland has been discussed at length on this blog over the past week. He's a guy who is probably the best best to be extended prior to 2014. Of course, in terms of players extended he's a guy that probably wouldn't create a ton of excitement. At the same time if the Royals can find value in a Greg Holland extension then they should absolutely jump at the opportunity.
The final player who I will suggest is Norichika Aoki. If you've frequented this blog over the last couple of months you know how big of an Aoki fan that I am. I think he is going to be an excellent fit for Kauffman Stadium and I expect him to be wroth 2.5 WAR or more in 2014. Aoki is only signed through this season, but I would be curious as to what he might ask for in the way of an extension.
The Royals have done a nice job in putting talent together in Kansas City. Hopefully, the Royals can keep this group together long enough to put the pieces in place around them to win big. At the very least we know that we'll have a top notch catcher putting on the mask for us day in and day out for the next six seasons.
Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!
In just 253 professional games, Perez has accumulated 7.5 fWAR, which is easily more than any other hitter developed during the Dayton Moore regime. Perez has compiled this mark at quite the discount for Kansas City. In a time when amateur players are signing for millions of dollars, Perez signed for just $65,000.
Obviously, for Perez to develop into any sort of Major League contributor he would have proved to be an excellent investment, but Dayton Moore swooped in and signed him to a long term deal after just 39 professional games. The deal guaranteed Perez $7 million over the first five years of the deal and included three team options would could take the value all the way up to $21.75.
The deal was a masterstroke by Moore and will most likely be remembered as the best move of his tenure. The contract not only guaranteed a relatively small amount of money*, but also bought the Royals two additional years of team control. Making the deal even better has been the fact that the final three years of the contract are team options.
*Consider this, Eric Hosmer's signing bonus was $6 million. the Royals promised Perez $7 million and were able to secure 8 seasons of cost control for the catcher.
There was a stretch when Dayton Moore did a nice job of locking up several guys. Billy Butler signed a four year deal with a team option, when he was reaching arbitration for the first time. Alcides Escobar signed a four year deal with two team options when he was reaching arbitration. Alex Gordon signed a four year deal with an option when he was just a season from Free Agency.
Entering this offseason I was hopeful that the Royals could do the same for some of their current assets. I also knew that there weren't a ton of logical fits to be extension. Eric Hosmer would be a fantastic player to lock up long term, but he is a Boras client that long dreamed of playing for the Yankees. Danny Duffy, hasn't shown enough control/poise/durability to warrant a guaranteed rotation spot let along a long term contract. Mike Moustakas hit like crap last season. Lorenzo Cain is too injury prone for an extension. This only leaves a few options.
James Shields would have been awesome to extend, but given the current pitching market and the fact that he is now just a year from free agency, it seems that the Royals have missed their chance (if it ever existed). It also isn't a given that a Shields extension would even be worth it.
Greg Holland has been discussed at length on this blog over the past week. He's a guy who is probably the best best to be extended prior to 2014. Of course, in terms of players extended he's a guy that probably wouldn't create a ton of excitement. At the same time if the Royals can find value in a Greg Holland extension then they should absolutely jump at the opportunity.
The final player who I will suggest is Norichika Aoki. If you've frequented this blog over the last couple of months you know how big of an Aoki fan that I am. I think he is going to be an excellent fit for Kauffman Stadium and I expect him to be wroth 2.5 WAR or more in 2014. Aoki is only signed through this season, but I would be curious as to what he might ask for in the way of an extension.
The Royals have done a nice job in putting talent together in Kansas City. Hopefully, the Royals can keep this group together long enough to put the pieces in place around them to win big. At the very least we know that we'll have a top notch catcher putting on the mask for us day in and day out for the next six seasons.
Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
What Does Kimbrel’s New Deal Mean For Greg Holland?
The Atlanta Braves and All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel agreed to a 4-year, $42 million extension on Friday. The deal will pay Kimbrel $7 million in 2014 with increases up to $13 million in 2017. There are incentives that could increase the overall value and an option is also available for 2018. As Ken Rosenthal noted, the deal is the “largest extension for a closer pre-free agency.” Kimbrel was the latest arbitration-eligible Brave to sign a multi-year deal, joining Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward. Julio Teheran also signed a long-term contract last week.
The strategy of locking up young players is somewhat new in Atlanta, but not Kansas City. As we know, Alcides Escobar and Wade Davis are signed through 2017 and Salvador Perez is on the books through 2019. This leaves many Royals fans looking for the team to make a similar commitment to closer Greg Holland. After watching how the Braves and Kimbrel agreed to a deal, we may have an even clearer look at what Holland is worth.
How did the process play out in Atlanta? One item to note is the Braves policy concerning arbitration-eligible players. Once the deadline passes for players and teams to exchange salary figures for arbitration, one-year salary discussions cease. People often refer to this as ‘file and trial.’ “It’s a very strict policy,” Braves GM Frank Wren said early this month. “We have no exceptions, unless talks are about a multi-year contract. That’s always been the policy.” Obviously, the Royals do not subscribe to such a policy, as Holland agreed to a one-year deal worth $4.675 million after numbers were exchanged. Holland asked for $5.2 million in arbitration and will make about 8.5 times what he earned in 2013. His 2013 salary ranks in the top ten for Major League closers. He is under team control until 2016.
The Braves submitted a number of $6.55 million for Kimbrel, while the closer felt he was worth $9 million (which is $3.75 million higher than any closer has made in his first arbitration-eligible year). Arbitration hearings can get ugly as the team and the player fight for every cent and the all-or-nothing decision will leave one side disappointed. To avoid going down that road with Kimbrel was huge for Atlanta. Especially since they would likely have to do it multiple times before he becomes a free agent. Both hearings and one-year contract discussions can take a toll and feelings can get hurt, which makes it harder to keep a player once he becomes a free agent. Now, Atlanta and Kimbrel have (theoretically) taken the salary concern off the table for the next four seasons. This will allow the closer to concentrate on the ninth inning, and the Braves to turn their attention to Andtrelton Simmons, Mike Minor and the rest of their young core players.
Now, what does this mean for Greg Holland? First, let’s compare the two closers.
In my opinion, Craig Kimbrel is not only the best closer in baseball, it is not even close. I also think he is in the mix for the title of best pitcher. I know, Clayton Kershaw is on another planet, but so is Kimbrel. The guy is filthy. In the last three seasons, Kimbrel has had the best WHIP (0.87), ERA (1.48) and K/9 (14.9) of all pitchers who threw 200 innings or more. He has an absurd 381 strikeouts in 227.1 career innings. The question for Kimbrel (and any closer) is can he keep it up? Wren thinks so, and he put his money where his mouth is. According to Braves beat writer David O’Brien, Wren said “I’m not in the camp that says anyone can close games.” Kimbrel could be a once-in-a-generation closer.
But what about Greg Holland? He has certainly been very good, and his stats are not that different from Kimbrel. But as far as a contract goes, two numbers are most important: 28 and 67.
Holland will be 28 years old in 2014, and Kimbrel is only 26. This matters. The life of a closer is volatile, and not many in today’s game will have extended careers of dominance. At just 26 years old, the Braves felt Kimbrel was worth the risk. He has certainly proved over the last three seasons he is worth it. Braves fans were not so sure though, as there was plenty of talk that backed trading Kimbrel. At 28, Holland loses leverage in long-term contract talks. Do the Royals really want to commit to a closer until he is 32 or 33?
That brings us to the number 67: The number of saves Holland has earned in his career to date. Let’s face it, Holland has not proven himself over a long enough timeline. Sure, 2013 was outstanding for Holland, but he has just one full season as a closer. Eric Gagne (2003), Robb Nen (2000) and BJ Ryan (2006) have put up some of the best closers’ seasons of all time. It can come and go in a flash. By contrast, Kimbrel has been the full-time closer in Atlanta since 2011 and has recorded 138 saves in that time. Kimbrel could fall apart at any moment, and past results are certainly not an indication of the future, but at least he has three amazing seasons worth of results to back up his new contract. Holland does not.
Also keep in mind the depth of the bullpens. If both closers went down with injury, the Royals would be in a better situation. Possible replacements for Holland include Kelvin Herrera, Louis Coleman, Aaron Crow or possibly even Luke Hochevar or Wade Davis - a very deep group. The Braves could turn to Jordan Walden or David Carpenter, and perhaps lefties Luis Avilan or Jonny Venters, if healthy. Personally, I feel Herrera is the best of the replacement bunch and could be a star closer. Since the Royals have a deeper pen, there is less pressure to commit to one guy.
I would certainly not fault the Royals if they take a wait-and-see approach on Holland for 2014. His salary is reasonable for both sides, and if he puts up similar numbers a contract extension would be justified for 2015 and beyond. I could also see a trade that opens the door for Herrera and allows for greater salary flexibility. I guess we will just have to wait and see.
PAST 3 SEASONS
|
2014 Age
|
G
|
IP
|
ERA
|
K%
|
K/9
|
BB/9
|
SV
|
SVO
|
WHIP
|
BA/OBP/SLG
|
Kimbrel
|
26
|
199
|
196.1
|
1.42
|
43.2
|
14.94
|
2.89
|
138
|
152
|
0.87
|
.157/.234/.216
|
Holland
|
28
|
170
|
183
|
2.11
|
34.2
|
12.39
|
3.3
|
67
|
76
|
1.08
|
.198/.271/.292
|
Sunday, February 9, 2014
Greg Holland Extension Comparables
Dayton Moore's undefeated streak is in jeopardy. He has never went to arbitration, but at this points there is a growing belief that he could head down that path with Greg Holland, following the closer's fantastic 2013 campaign which saw him record 47 saves, 3.2 fWAR, a 1.21 ERA, and 103 strikeouts in 67 innings.
What we know is that the Royals have offered $4.1 million and Holland's camp has countered at $5.2 million. However, given Moore's arbitration track record, as well as his history of signing players to extensions, I can't help but wonder if the true hold up is that the sides are attempting to tie up the loose ends of a long term contract.
Here's what Holland had to say about the possibility:
Prior to signing his extension after the 2008 season, Joakim Soria had posted a 2.05 ERA over 136.1 professional innings. During that time he had compiled 59 saves with a strikeout to walk ratio of 141 to 38. The deal that Soria signed was to pay out $1 million in year one, $3 million in year two, $4 in year three, then team options for years four through six at $6 million, $8 million, and $8.75 million.
Roughly three years later, Sergio Santos signed a remarkably similar deal. In his first two seasons, Santos threw 115 innings for the Chicago White Sox and recorded a 3.29 ERA, 31 saves, and a 148 to 55 strikeout to walk ratio. That deal was to pay Santos $1 million in the first year, $2.75 million in the second, and $3.75 in the third. The deal then offered three consecutive team options for $6 million, $8 million, and $8.75 million a piece.
Greg Holland has pitched in quite a bit more innings than either of the previously mentioned pitchers. At this point he has thrown 212.2 innings with a 2.41 ERA, 67 saves, and 291 strikeouts to 79 walks. Performance wise, he is a better pitcher at a similar stage he is a better pitcher than Santos, but a slightly behind Soria. Of course, the Royals will also have to pay extra for the longer track record that Holland provides in comparison to the aforementioned closers.
Obviously, Holland isn't going to sign for a deal that only pays him $1 million in 2014. However, I could see a deal that is similar to the above but guarantees more and buys out a little less control. I might venture a guess like $4 million for 2014, $6 million for 2015, $8 million for 2016, $8.75 team option for 2017, and a $9.5 million team option for 2018.
This type of deal would provide cost certainty for the Royals, while also allowing them the option of controlling Holland for a couple of extra seasons. For Holland he would be guaranteed $18 million over the next three seasons, an excellent haul for a first time arbitration eligible reliever.
What do you guys think? Are you comfortable committing that sort of coin to a reliever?
If you are of the opinion that the Royals should try and sell high on Holland, keep in mind that this sort of deal wouldn't prohibit that. Then the question would become, if Holland signed this extension would he be a more attractive asset? I have to think that many teams would consider these terms a bargain.
What do you think Royals nation?
Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams
What we know is that the Royals have offered $4.1 million and Holland's camp has countered at $5.2 million. However, given Moore's arbitration track record, as well as his history of signing players to extensions, I can't help but wonder if the true hold up is that the sides are attempting to tie up the loose ends of a long term contract.
Here's what Holland had to say about the possibility:
"Would everyone in that room like to be here for a long time for their whole career? Yeah. Is that going to happen? Probably not."I'm sure Holland would be willing to sign a deal to stay in Kansas City, but that will depend on the size of the contract. So what might it take to keep Holland in Kansas City? Let's take a look at a couple of pretty good comparables, both of which were at similar points in regards to their service time clocks.
Prior to signing his extension after the 2008 season, Joakim Soria had posted a 2.05 ERA over 136.1 professional innings. During that time he had compiled 59 saves with a strikeout to walk ratio of 141 to 38. The deal that Soria signed was to pay out $1 million in year one, $3 million in year two, $4 in year three, then team options for years four through six at $6 million, $8 million, and $8.75 million.
Roughly three years later, Sergio Santos signed a remarkably similar deal. In his first two seasons, Santos threw 115 innings for the Chicago White Sox and recorded a 3.29 ERA, 31 saves, and a 148 to 55 strikeout to walk ratio. That deal was to pay Santos $1 million in the first year, $2.75 million in the second, and $3.75 in the third. The deal then offered three consecutive team options for $6 million, $8 million, and $8.75 million a piece.
Greg Holland has pitched in quite a bit more innings than either of the previously mentioned pitchers. At this point he has thrown 212.2 innings with a 2.41 ERA, 67 saves, and 291 strikeouts to 79 walks. Performance wise, he is a better pitcher at a similar stage he is a better pitcher than Santos, but a slightly behind Soria. Of course, the Royals will also have to pay extra for the longer track record that Holland provides in comparison to the aforementioned closers.
Obviously, Holland isn't going to sign for a deal that only pays him $1 million in 2014. However, I could see a deal that is similar to the above but guarantees more and buys out a little less control. I might venture a guess like $4 million for 2014, $6 million for 2015, $8 million for 2016, $8.75 team option for 2017, and a $9.5 million team option for 2018.
This type of deal would provide cost certainty for the Royals, while also allowing them the option of controlling Holland for a couple of extra seasons. For Holland he would be guaranteed $18 million over the next three seasons, an excellent haul for a first time arbitration eligible reliever.
What do you guys think? Are you comfortable committing that sort of coin to a reliever?
If you are of the opinion that the Royals should try and sell high on Holland, keep in mind that this sort of deal wouldn't prohibit that. Then the question would become, if Holland signed this extension would he be a more attractive asset? I have to think that many teams would consider these terms a bargain.
What do you think Royals nation?
Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams
Friday, April 6, 2012
Broxton Named Royals' Closer
The decision has been made and Jonathan Broxton will open 2012 as the Royals closer. I've got just a few thoughts on the subject.
First, I'm glad that the Royals went ahead and anointed a closer. Last season the Cardinals obviously had huge success in not naming a closer after Ryan Franklin's implosion. However, in the modern bullpen more often than not players perform better in clearly defined rolls. I'm glad the Royals will enter the year with clearly defined Royals for each of their bullpen arms.
Second, I'm glad the Royals chose Broxton over Holland to close ball games, but do not confuse this into me saying that I believe Jonathan Broxton is the better option. In the modern bullpen the closer role is often reserved for the team's top reliever. However, the traditional fireman role is often far more important. Holland only allowed 2 of 33 runners to score in 2011. By leaving him in the fireman role for 2012, the Royals are allowing him to once again be the most valuable pitcher in the pen.
Finally, there could be financial implications to this move. Saves are a statistic that are still valued more than they should be on the open market and in salary arbitration. Broxton will leave after 2012, so if his stock/market value rises it is no problem for Kansas City. However, if Greg Holland were to dominate in the closer position the Royals could pay the price through arbitration several times.
Hopefully, Broxton can lock down the 9th just like he used to do in Los Angeles and Greg Holland can be the fireman he was in 2011. If both of these things can happen, thanks to the depth, the Royals bullpen should be stronger in 2012, than they were with Joakim Soria in 2011.
First, I'm glad that the Royals went ahead and anointed a closer. Last season the Cardinals obviously had huge success in not naming a closer after Ryan Franklin's implosion. However, in the modern bullpen more often than not players perform better in clearly defined rolls. I'm glad the Royals will enter the year with clearly defined Royals for each of their bullpen arms.
Second, I'm glad the Royals chose Broxton over Holland to close ball games, but do not confuse this into me saying that I believe Jonathan Broxton is the better option. In the modern bullpen the closer role is often reserved for the team's top reliever. However, the traditional fireman role is often far more important. Holland only allowed 2 of 33 runners to score in 2011. By leaving him in the fireman role for 2012, the Royals are allowing him to once again be the most valuable pitcher in the pen.
Finally, there could be financial implications to this move. Saves are a statistic that are still valued more than they should be on the open market and in salary arbitration. Broxton will leave after 2012, so if his stock/market value rises it is no problem for Kansas City. However, if Greg Holland were to dominate in the closer position the Royals could pay the price through arbitration several times.
Hopefully, Broxton can lock down the 9th just like he used to do in Los Angeles and Greg Holland can be the fireman he was in 2011. If both of these things can happen, thanks to the depth, the Royals bullpen should be stronger in 2012, than they were with Joakim Soria in 2011.
Monday, December 5, 2011
Winter Meetings: Day 1 Round Up
So here are some quick hits of the Royals rumors today:
1. Royals are one of five teams interested in Carlos Guillen. This would have to come real cheap, and since Guillen wouldn't even be a viable back up for Escobar, I'm just not sure how this fits. Looking at the market, I'm beginning to think that Navarro presents the best blend of versatility and bat skill for our bench. It just becomes a matter of how important for the organization to have him playing everyday.
2. Royals are dangling Soria and Holland for pitching, but are asking for a lot. The Royals have every right to be asking for a lot, even considering last season, Soria has been one of the top closers in baseball and still has an incredibly favorable contract. Holland of course is under team control for five more seasons after dominating in 2011.
3. Royals are aggressively pursuing starting pitching and are talking with the Athletics about Gio Gonzalez. I haven't heard of any specific names from the Royals end, but I would imagine the Athletics are demanding a lot in return. For me my interest in Gio hinges on the Athletics demand. I don't include Myers, but a package involving one of either Odorizzi or Montgomery, Colon and a lower level guy like Eibner, Bonifacio, Ventura, Yambati, or Adam would make sense to me, but I'd imagine wouldn't for the Athletics.
4. Royals have also kicked tires on Jeremy Guthrie. As is case with everyone greatly depends on cost. I think Guthrie's numbers would improve should he be dealt to Kansas City, however, with a cursory glance over his numbers I'm not convinced we'd be adding anything more than a #3. Quite frankly we've got plenty of potential #3s.
5. Royals have scouted Cuban Yoenis Cespedes. To be clear, Dayton Moore basically said he would likely fall way out of the Royals price range, but there is a precedent for the Royals shocking the industry on the Cuban market. If the Royals do love Cespedes, and are concerned with Cain... well... yeah, I'd still be shocked if we landed Cespedes.
6. The Royals and Rays have discussed Shields, with Rays seeking a return of Soria, Myers, and Colon. In trades for guys like Shields, teams typically have to give up a centerpiece, quality player, and one or two complimentary pieces. My problem with this trade is that the Royals would be giving up too much. Soria is an elite closer on a team friendly deal, Myers is a blue chip prospect, and Christian Colon was the #4 overall selection in the 2010 draft. But don't forget, it is rare for teams to actually get the haul that they initially demand. Just because the Rays are seeking that package, doesn't mean that the Royals would have give up that to obtain Big Game James. We'll just have to wait and see.
1. Royals are one of five teams interested in Carlos Guillen. This would have to come real cheap, and since Guillen wouldn't even be a viable back up for Escobar, I'm just not sure how this fits. Looking at the market, I'm beginning to think that Navarro presents the best blend of versatility and bat skill for our bench. It just becomes a matter of how important for the organization to have him playing everyday.
2. Royals are dangling Soria and Holland for pitching, but are asking for a lot. The Royals have every right to be asking for a lot, even considering last season, Soria has been one of the top closers in baseball and still has an incredibly favorable contract. Holland of course is under team control for five more seasons after dominating in 2011.
3. Royals are aggressively pursuing starting pitching and are talking with the Athletics about Gio Gonzalez. I haven't heard of any specific names from the Royals end, but I would imagine the Athletics are demanding a lot in return. For me my interest in Gio hinges on the Athletics demand. I don't include Myers, but a package involving one of either Odorizzi or Montgomery, Colon and a lower level guy like Eibner, Bonifacio, Ventura, Yambati, or Adam would make sense to me, but I'd imagine wouldn't for the Athletics.
4. Royals have also kicked tires on Jeremy Guthrie. As is case with everyone greatly depends on cost. I think Guthrie's numbers would improve should he be dealt to Kansas City, however, with a cursory glance over his numbers I'm not convinced we'd be adding anything more than a #3. Quite frankly we've got plenty of potential #3s.
5. Royals have scouted Cuban Yoenis Cespedes. To be clear, Dayton Moore basically said he would likely fall way out of the Royals price range, but there is a precedent for the Royals shocking the industry on the Cuban market. If the Royals do love Cespedes, and are concerned with Cain... well... yeah, I'd still be shocked if we landed Cespedes.
6. The Royals and Rays have discussed Shields, with Rays seeking a return of Soria, Myers, and Colon. In trades for guys like Shields, teams typically have to give up a centerpiece, quality player, and one or two complimentary pieces. My problem with this trade is that the Royals would be giving up too much. Soria is an elite closer on a team friendly deal, Myers is a blue chip prospect, and Christian Colon was the #4 overall selection in the 2010 draft. But don't forget, it is rare for teams to actually get the haul that they initially demand. Just because the Rays are seeking that package, doesn't mean that the Royals would have give up that to obtain Big Game James. We'll just have to wait and see.
Sunday, August 21, 2011
An Opportunity Missed?
After Jeff Francoeur's extension a few days ago the Royals seem to have in place their lineup for the 2012 season. I'm not sure when the last time was that the Royals had their next season's lineup in place in August was but it is nice to enter the offseason without a hole in the lineup that needs to be filled.
With that being said, I do believe that the Royals have to sign a front end starter to truly initiate the launch sequence for Mission 2012. At this point the Royals have Danny Duffy, Felipe Paulino, and Luke Hochevar as locks for the 2012 rotation. I believe that they should also reserve a spot for either Everett Teaford, Aaron Crow, or Greg Holland depending on which wins a job next Spring.
This isn't a bad group of starters. Not as bad as what Kansas City had to deal with throughout late April into early June this season. Obviously the Royals could go out and bring in a serviceable starter or two in the Bruce Chen/ Jeff Francis variety (heck they could even keep Bruce Chen and Jeff Francis). Or they could invest some of that excess cash and really strengthen that rotation.
Unfortunately it isn't exactly the most impressive free agent class when it comes to starting pitchers. There are a few names that could be pretty good fits, but considering the lack of many potential front end guys there could be a bidding war for guys deserving of that role. This isn't what the Royals want to get into.
Needless to say it isn't easy for teams like the Royals to get a hold of front end starters, even if they have the payroll flexibility to do so. But in my opinion the Royals were just presented an opportunity to get their hands on one.
On August 19, the Houston Astros placed the incredibly underrated Wandy Rodriguez on waivers. This means that teams have two business days to stake a claim on him in order for a chance to trade for him. Some people suspect that should a team claim Wandy the Astros would be content to just let him go in order to retain salary relief.
This is not only a risk that I believe the Royals should take, but also the scenario that I would have preferred to happen. Wandy Rodriguez is slated to make $10 million next season and $13 million the following season. According to Doug Pappas of SABR his 2014 option for $13 million also becomes a player option should Wandy be traded.
I am not sure if a waiver claim would make 2014 a player option, but let's say it does. The Royals would be on the hook for $36 million over the next three seasons. This is without a doubt a big chunk of money. Not to mention Wandy is already 32 and would be 35 years old by the contract's end.
Don't forgetthe Royals were willing to pay Gil Meche $55 million over 5 years and his track record at the time of the deal wasn't even close to as strong as Wandy Rodriguez. The Royals also were willing to pay $36 million to aging, steroid using, no walk taking, Jose Guillen over three years. Why wouldn't they be willing to commit the same amount of cash to a proven front of the rotation starter.
The Royals have a huge amount of payroll flexibility. Even after spending roughly $20 million on amateurs in 2011, the Royals are in a position where for the next three or four seasons they will be able to pay a huge chunk of their roster the league minimum.
The Royals are in a position where they could afford a contract such as this more than any other point in their franchise's history. Also, the guy in question is exactly what the Royals need in order to push themselves to contention.
Wandy Rodriguez has called Minute Maid Park home for his entire career. Normally I would expect his numbers to dip, due to a league change but in this situation not only could I see his numbers staying consistent, but also even improving by moving to a park that's a less hitter friendly.
There is definitely risk in committing $36 million to Wandy Rodriguez. But I believe the Royals are in a position that would make it worthwhile. There aren't many starting pitchers on the 2012 free agent market that will be as good as Wandy Rodriguez, and most will command similar financial commitments.
Should the Astros pull Wandy back if the Royals claimed him, the two clubs could then work out a trade. Rumor is that the Astros prefer salary relief to prospects at this point, so the less the Royals had to give up in terms of talent the better.
I believe that the Royals would have to place their claim on Wandy Rodriguez by Tuesday. I have read several tweets from baseball people that speculate no team will claim Wandy Rodriguez. Quite frankly there are probably only a few teams in all of baseball that could take on the contract without the Astros help at this point in the season.
The Royals have a chance to make a big move to position themselves as a front runner for the 2012 AL Central title. Will they have the courage to take it?
With that being said, I do believe that the Royals have to sign a front end starter to truly initiate the launch sequence for Mission 2012. At this point the Royals have Danny Duffy, Felipe Paulino, and Luke Hochevar as locks for the 2012 rotation. I believe that they should also reserve a spot for either Everett Teaford, Aaron Crow, or Greg Holland depending on which wins a job next Spring.
This isn't a bad group of starters. Not as bad as what Kansas City had to deal with throughout late April into early June this season. Obviously the Royals could go out and bring in a serviceable starter or two in the Bruce Chen/ Jeff Francis variety (heck they could even keep Bruce Chen and Jeff Francis). Or they could invest some of that excess cash and really strengthen that rotation.
Unfortunately it isn't exactly the most impressive free agent class when it comes to starting pitchers. There are a few names that could be pretty good fits, but considering the lack of many potential front end guys there could be a bidding war for guys deserving of that role. This isn't what the Royals want to get into.
Needless to say it isn't easy for teams like the Royals to get a hold of front end starters, even if they have the payroll flexibility to do so. But in my opinion the Royals were just presented an opportunity to get their hands on one.
On August 19, the Houston Astros placed the incredibly underrated Wandy Rodriguez on waivers. This means that teams have two business days to stake a claim on him in order for a chance to trade for him. Some people suspect that should a team claim Wandy the Astros would be content to just let him go in order to retain salary relief.
This is not only a risk that I believe the Royals should take, but also the scenario that I would have preferred to happen. Wandy Rodriguez is slated to make $10 million next season and $13 million the following season. According to Doug Pappas of SABR his 2014 option for $13 million also becomes a player option should Wandy be traded.
I am not sure if a waiver claim would make 2014 a player option, but let's say it does. The Royals would be on the hook for $36 million over the next three seasons. This is without a doubt a big chunk of money. Not to mention Wandy is already 32 and would be 35 years old by the contract's end.
Don't forgetthe Royals were willing to pay Gil Meche $55 million over 5 years and his track record at the time of the deal wasn't even close to as strong as Wandy Rodriguez. The Royals also were willing to pay $36 million to aging, steroid using, no walk taking, Jose Guillen over three years. Why wouldn't they be willing to commit the same amount of cash to a proven front of the rotation starter.
The Royals have a huge amount of payroll flexibility. Even after spending roughly $20 million on amateurs in 2011, the Royals are in a position where for the next three or four seasons they will be able to pay a huge chunk of their roster the league minimum.
The Royals are in a position where they could afford a contract such as this more than any other point in their franchise's history. Also, the guy in question is exactly what the Royals need in order to push themselves to contention.
Wandy Rodriguez has called Minute Maid Park home for his entire career. Normally I would expect his numbers to dip, due to a league change but in this situation not only could I see his numbers staying consistent, but also even improving by moving to a park that's a less hitter friendly.
There is definitely risk in committing $36 million to Wandy Rodriguez. But I believe the Royals are in a position that would make it worthwhile. There aren't many starting pitchers on the 2012 free agent market that will be as good as Wandy Rodriguez, and most will command similar financial commitments.
Should the Astros pull Wandy back if the Royals claimed him, the two clubs could then work out a trade. Rumor is that the Astros prefer salary relief to prospects at this point, so the less the Royals had to give up in terms of talent the better.
I believe that the Royals would have to place their claim on Wandy Rodriguez by Tuesday. I have read several tweets from baseball people that speculate no team will claim Wandy Rodriguez. Quite frankly there are probably only a few teams in all of baseball that could take on the contract without the Astros help at this point in the season.
The Royals have a chance to make a big move to position themselves as a front runner for the 2012 AL Central title. Will they have the courage to take it?
Thursday, July 21, 2011
What We Need for 2012: Part 1
As trade winds begin to swirl there are discussions regarding what the Royals need to acquire. According to people that have a lot more information and contacts than me, the Royals are seeking catching and Major League ready starting pitching.
You can't blame them. The Royals have one legitimate starting catching prospect playing full season ball, and that prospect didn't even make most people's preseason top ten catching prospect lists.
Don't get me wrong, Salvador Perez isn't a bad catching prospect. He is a stud defensively and I have been impressed with how his bat has progressed. But the Royals shouldn't be putting all of their eggs in one basket for this guy. He isn’t an elite guy in the Moustakas or Hosmer mold, there has to be a backup plan.
When it comes to pitching the Royals find themselves near the bottom of the rankings when it comes to team era. When you consider that the bullpen has been a bright spot all year long it isn’t pretty imagining just the starter’s numbers.
Of course it didn't help matters when Sean O'Sullivan and Vin Mazzaro were granted time as starters. Not to mention that Kyle Davies has been horrible again and Hochevar has seemed to take two steps back for every one step forward.
So where does that leave us when we look to 2012? The year we are finally supposed to turn the corner and make a some noise in the AL Central. The rotation has to be addressed. At least we won’t have to build from scratch, because the way I see it we have two guys that absolutely deserve a spot as of now: Felipe Paulino and Danny Duffy.
Paulino has been a total disrespect to what the waiver player is supposed to be. You aren't supposed to be able to acquire rotation caliber pitchers with potentially dominating stuff. Let alone a guy that almost immediately is a top of the rotation guy. But that is what Paulino has become since landing in Kansas City.
So far in Kansas City, Paulino has posted a 3.60 era with a 53 strikeouts and just 12 walks in 55 innings of play. For the season he has an xFIP of 3.14 which includes his time in Colorado when he got lit up like a firecracker. Paulino is under team control through 2014, and if he can keep up what he has done thus far in Kansas City then there is no reason he shouldn't be a part of the rotation for the next several seasons.
The other guy that is a lock is Danny Duffy. Duffy has definitely struggled with his command and pitch counts, but he is a rookie and over the course of his last 3 starts he has been a top flight starter with an xFIP under 3.
Duffy has posted an above average strikeout rate and has displayed the third fastest heater amongst lefty starters with his 93.5 mph mark. The stuff is dynamite and if he can harness his control and trust it enough to challenge top flight hitters he will be more than fine.
With Paulino and Duffy the Royals have found 40% of next season’s rotation. It isn’t a stretch for both to be quality mid rotation guys and if they can improve could even be number 2 starters.
So that leaves three spots that the Royals need to fill. I suppose at this point we should assume that one of those spots will be occupied by the enigmatic Luke Hochevar. Hochevar has been incredibly frustrating this season and I refuse to buy into the problem solved talk every time he puts together one good start. If he can string together several in a row and put to proper use the stuff that enabled him to be a top draft choice, I'll reconsider my stance.
For now though, in my mind Hochevar has started down a path that could lead Royals fans to view him as Kyle Davies part two. For this reason he'll be back in the Royals rotation next season, but without a turnaround second half we really shouldn't expect anything more than a back end guy.
So now we are up to 60%. That is until we add Aaron Crow into the fold. According to CBS Fantasy Sports, Dayton Moore has confirmed to MLB Network Radio that the Royals will move Crow to the rotation for 2012.
I like this move. Crow's stuff reminds me a bit of Greinke's. His fastball can reach the upper 90s with life and his slider can be unhittable. The huge difference between the two is that Crow's command can't even compare to Greinke's. Nonetheless I hope that time in the pen will play a similar role in Crow's transition to the Big League rotation just as it did for Greinke.
Crow has front of the rotation stuff. But we should curb our enthusiasm, considering just a year ago he was about to be demoted to Wilmington after a dreadful first half in Northwest Arkansas. I'm not saying I don't think he can still be a front of the rotation guy, but when it comes to expectations for 2012, Crow shouldn't be the guy we are counting on to turn our rotation into a team strength (although it is possible).
The Royals have also suggested that they will consider moving Greg Holland to the rotation as well. Holland has been totally filthy in the pen this year, however, he himself has said that when he started in Wilmington he was unable to repeat his delivery enough as a starter to get past the first few innings of the game. I can't really imagine Holland making the move to the rotation and if he did I don't think I would feel comfortable with the arms in the bullpen without him.
End of Part 1
Sorry for the Lord of the Rings style ending but unfortunately this post really took on a life of its own so I have decided to cut it into parts. So I’ll get the next part up shortly.
You can't blame them. The Royals have one legitimate starting catching prospect playing full season ball, and that prospect didn't even make most people's preseason top ten catching prospect lists.
Don't get me wrong, Salvador Perez isn't a bad catching prospect. He is a stud defensively and I have been impressed with how his bat has progressed. But the Royals shouldn't be putting all of their eggs in one basket for this guy. He isn’t an elite guy in the Moustakas or Hosmer mold, there has to be a backup plan.
When it comes to pitching the Royals find themselves near the bottom of the rankings when it comes to team era. When you consider that the bullpen has been a bright spot all year long it isn’t pretty imagining just the starter’s numbers.
Of course it didn't help matters when Sean O'Sullivan and Vin Mazzaro were granted time as starters. Not to mention that Kyle Davies has been horrible again and Hochevar has seemed to take two steps back for every one step forward.
So where does that leave us when we look to 2012? The year we are finally supposed to turn the corner and make a some noise in the AL Central. The rotation has to be addressed. At least we won’t have to build from scratch, because the way I see it we have two guys that absolutely deserve a spot as of now: Felipe Paulino and Danny Duffy.
Paulino has been a total disrespect to what the waiver player is supposed to be. You aren't supposed to be able to acquire rotation caliber pitchers with potentially dominating stuff. Let alone a guy that almost immediately is a top of the rotation guy. But that is what Paulino has become since landing in Kansas City.
So far in Kansas City, Paulino has posted a 3.60 era with a 53 strikeouts and just 12 walks in 55 innings of play. For the season he has an xFIP of 3.14 which includes his time in Colorado when he got lit up like a firecracker. Paulino is under team control through 2014, and if he can keep up what he has done thus far in Kansas City then there is no reason he shouldn't be a part of the rotation for the next several seasons.
The other guy that is a lock is Danny Duffy. Duffy has definitely struggled with his command and pitch counts, but he is a rookie and over the course of his last 3 starts he has been a top flight starter with an xFIP under 3.
Duffy has posted an above average strikeout rate and has displayed the third fastest heater amongst lefty starters with his 93.5 mph mark. The stuff is dynamite and if he can harness his control and trust it enough to challenge top flight hitters he will be more than fine.
With Paulino and Duffy the Royals have found 40% of next season’s rotation. It isn’t a stretch for both to be quality mid rotation guys and if they can improve could even be number 2 starters.
So that leaves three spots that the Royals need to fill. I suppose at this point we should assume that one of those spots will be occupied by the enigmatic Luke Hochevar. Hochevar has been incredibly frustrating this season and I refuse to buy into the problem solved talk every time he puts together one good start. If he can string together several in a row and put to proper use the stuff that enabled him to be a top draft choice, I'll reconsider my stance.
For now though, in my mind Hochevar has started down a path that could lead Royals fans to view him as Kyle Davies part two. For this reason he'll be back in the Royals rotation next season, but without a turnaround second half we really shouldn't expect anything more than a back end guy.
So now we are up to 60%. That is until we add Aaron Crow into the fold. According to CBS Fantasy Sports, Dayton Moore has confirmed to MLB Network Radio that the Royals will move Crow to the rotation for 2012.
I like this move. Crow's stuff reminds me a bit of Greinke's. His fastball can reach the upper 90s with life and his slider can be unhittable. The huge difference between the two is that Crow's command can't even compare to Greinke's. Nonetheless I hope that time in the pen will play a similar role in Crow's transition to the Big League rotation just as it did for Greinke.
Crow has front of the rotation stuff. But we should curb our enthusiasm, considering just a year ago he was about to be demoted to Wilmington after a dreadful first half in Northwest Arkansas. I'm not saying I don't think he can still be a front of the rotation guy, but when it comes to expectations for 2012, Crow shouldn't be the guy we are counting on to turn our rotation into a team strength (although it is possible).
The Royals have also suggested that they will consider moving Greg Holland to the rotation as well. Holland has been totally filthy in the pen this year, however, he himself has said that when he started in Wilmington he was unable to repeat his delivery enough as a starter to get past the first few innings of the game. I can't really imagine Holland making the move to the rotation and if he did I don't think I would feel comfortable with the arms in the bullpen without him.
End of Part 1
Sorry for the Lord of the Rings style ending but unfortunately this post really took on a life of its own so I have decided to cut it into parts. So I’ll get the next part up shortly.
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