Royals Trade Broxton

I woke up this morning truly believing that the Royals deadline would end quietly. Instead, the Royals did the wise thing and flipped Jonathan Broxton to the Reds. In the trade the Royals acquired two minor leaguers and in the opinion of some made off like bandits. Here's a collection of information in each of the two prospects that are coming to Kansas City.

Juancarlos Sulbaran: Entered the season ranked as the 12th best prospect in the Reds' system according to Baseball America as well as having the system's top curveball. At this point some considered Sulbaran to be the fifth best prospect in the system. Also, John Sickels graded Sulbaran as a C+ prospect, but also considered him a potential sleeper. Sulbaran typically sits in the low 90s, and has been clocked as high as 95. He is also said to show flashes of a plus curveball and changeup, although both still need consistency.

Last season, Sulbaran took a huge step forward in the California League recording 155 strikeouts to 50 walks. This season, the former 30th round selection has improved his ERA to 4.06, despite his K:BB dropping down around 2. Sulbaran is said to have the upside of a #3 starter with a high amount of risk.

Donnie Joseph: Entered the season ranked as the 27th best prospect in the Reds system. He is said to have two plus pitches in his fastball and slider. As of this moment Joseph could probably hold his own as a lefty specialist. Long term, Joseph could very well find a spot in the late innings as a set up man. Also, John Mayo provided us with the opinion of a scout who believed that Joseph as of right now would have been just as good of an option as Broxton to set up for Cincinnati. That same scout also said that he viewed Joseph as a future closer.

I can't imagine any educated Royals' fan being disappointed with this deal. If nothing else, moving Broxton saves the Royals $1.8 million and allows the team to use the remaining two months as a dress rehearsal for newly anointed closer Greg Holland.

As for the prospects, I would have been happy if the Royals would have grabbed just one of the two aforementioned players. The fact that the Royals were not able to grab a near Major League ready starter as well as a Major League ready reliever is even better. Of course, on a day when the Cardinals traded a former first round draft pick for an average reliever, it shouldn't come as too big of a shock that former Cardinals General Manager John Mozeliak gave up two quality prospects for a couple months of a reliever.

The Broxton signing should go down as the Dayton Moore's top offseason acquisition. In an offseason that required perfection in order for the Royals to jump the gap, the Broxton signing was one of the few positives. However after Soria went down, Broxton absolutely provided the Royals with what they needed. A few months later the one year deal has now turned itself into potentially 6 seasons of control for a set up man, and 6 more for a mid rotation starter. But like I said, even if neither prospect pans out, the two months of closer experience for Holland should make the whole thing worthwhile.

Broxton Named Royals' Closer

The decision has been made and Jonathan Broxton will open 2012 as the Royals closer. I've got just a few thoughts on the subject.

First, I'm glad that the Royals went ahead and anointed a closer. Last season the Cardinals obviously had huge success in not naming a closer after Ryan Franklin's implosion. However, in the modern bullpen more often than not players perform better in clearly defined rolls. I'm glad the Royals will enter the year with clearly defined Royals for each of their bullpen arms.

Second, I'm glad the Royals chose Broxton over Holland to close ball games, but do not confuse this into me saying that I believe Jonathan Broxton is the better option. In the modern bullpen the closer role is often reserved for the team's top reliever. However, the traditional fireman role is often far more important. Holland only allowed 2 of 33 runners to score in 2011. By leaving him in the fireman role for 2012, the Royals are allowing him to once again be the most valuable pitcher in the pen.

Finally, there could be financial implications to this move. Saves are a statistic that are still valued more than they should be on the open market and in salary arbitration. Broxton will leave after 2012, so if his stock/market value rises it is no problem for Kansas City. However, if Greg Holland were to dominate in the closer position the Royals could pay the price through arbitration several times.

Hopefully, Broxton can lock down the 9th just like he used to do in Los Angeles and Greg Holland can be the fireman he was in 2011. If both of these things can happen, thanks to the depth, the Royals bullpen should be stronger in 2012, than they were with Joakim Soria in 2011.

Much Better than .500

In the Kansas City Star this morning we learned that manager Ned Yost believes this team will be much better than .500 in 2012.

"Yost points to upgrades in the rotation (acquiring Jonathan Sanchez in a trade with San Francisco and retaining Bruce Chen) and the bullpen (signing two-time All-Star Jonathan Broxton) as further reasons to expect major on-field improvement." -Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star

Just as some food for thought here's a few table displaying some various WARs values of last year's players and this years. I chose to use Wood in the first set, because if Crow were to stay in the rotation, I believe Wood would be the most likely to lose his roster spot.

For the weighted averages, I applied a 50% weight to last season, 30% to 2010, and 20% for 2009. Obviously some players didn't play in each of these season so they were assigned a value of 0.



For this set I used Aaron Crow. I believe that if the Royals do transition him to the rotation, it will likely result in a step back, meaning he would spend time in Omaha developing as a starter. This would mean Broxton would take Crow's spot on the big league team for the time being.



I think the Royals are definitely buying potential here. The potential in future success for the players on the right are likely higher than the players on the left. However, as you can see these moves definitely don't make the Royals obviously better for 2012 and there is the possibility that by investing into potential the Royals could actually take a step back this upcoming season.

Royals Shock World; Sign Broxton

Granted the title of this post might be slightly exaggerated. However, I think that most within the industry are shocked by this Royals acquisition. As we have seen early on the closer market has been particularly harsh on team's looking to upgrade their closer position. Sure there are several quality options, but those guys are going to cost teams some major cash.

What is shocking is that for several teams Jonathan Broxton was likely an extremely appealing option. For the first four seasons of his career he was a dominating reliever, in 2010 he suffered some hard luck and had an inflated ERA and then in 2011 Broxton spent most of the year on the disabled list. For a team like the Rays, I thought Broxton was a great opportunity to buy low a guy with back end experience.

From a Royals perspective I hadn't even given Broxton much thought. Even after trading for Jonathan Sanchez and signing Bruce Chen the Royals clearly need an upgrade to their rotation before they become a trendy pick to win the AL Central. I expected the Royals to bring in a bench piece or hopefully extend Gordon before Spring Training, but I didn't expect anything of value on the Bullpen front.

Apparently though Dayton Moore, like myself, believes in the philosophy of always needing another arm for the bullpen. Given the inconsistency of even the top relief pitchers in baseball, I'm glad this is the case. Not to mention the Royals could be in need of another arm should Aaron Crow make a smooth transition to the rotation as the Royals are hoping.

*I'm not suggesting that the Royals weren't already planning to move Crow to rotation, but adding a bullpen arm definitely makes loss of Crow in bullpen less of a deterrent.)

Of course there is a train of thought among Royals' fans that makes the Broxton acquisition even more exciting. The Royals added Broxton to fill the role that is about to be vacated when they deal Joakim Soria.

I admit that it seems a little more than coincidental that one night a Toronto Sports writer reports that the Royals are interested in Colby Rasmus, and then the next day the Royals sign Jonathan Broxton. Of course the Blue Jays have also been pretty clear that they are interesting in acquiring a closer. Do I expect a trade to occur? No, but it definitely is fun to speculate.

For now I want to leave it at this, the Royals have improved a strength. The rumor is that they were unhappy with the free agent market for starting pitchers and instead opted to improve what was already shaping to be one of the top bullpens in baseball.

I definitely find it odd that a team in the Royals position will be paying 25% of their payroll to two guys at the back of their bullpen ($6 mill for Soria, $4 mill plus $1 mill in incentives for Broxton), but if Aaron Crow transitions to the rotation as we all hope it will be nice for the bullpen to not be an arm down.

Now Dayton Moore has made it clear that Broxton was brought in to set up Joakim Soria in 2012. I am aware of this, but let's not be naive. Whether or not Moore is planning on dealing Soria, he is going to make this comment. Moore isn't going to say that yes he plans on trading Soria. Get real. Moore's comments on the subject at this point really are meaningless in whether or not you believe the Royals will trade Soria.

Now if you still are someone that believes Dayton Moore's words are the truth, consider that maybe Broxton will be setting up for Soria in 2012. So what happens to the Royals set up men? Crow could be in the rotation, but what about Holland? I could imagine Holland gaining quite a bit of interest in other teams (edit: I just read the Blue Jays are interested in Holland.)

I like the Broxton move. I realize that the bullpen is the least of the Royals concerns this offseason. However, I like the idea of fortifying a strength just in case. The move opens up a lot of options for the Royals and gives them more depth in case Crow and/or another bullpen arm transition to the rotation. There's no such thing as a bad one year deal and $4 million for Broxton isn't going to change my mind even if he doesn't come back from his 2011 injury.