Minor League Update - Omaha Storm Chasers

Through the season’s first 18 games, the Storm Chasers are 9-9 and are in a three-way tie for second place in the PCL American Northern Division, trailing Oklahoma City (HOU).

The Chasers have played an astonishing 15 of 18 games at home to start the season, but will leave for an eight game road trip to New Orleans (MIA) and Iowa (CHC) following Tuesday’s morning game against Nashville (MIL).

Through eighteen games, Omaha ranks third with a .299 team batting average, but are middle of the road in the 16-team league with a .356 on-base percentage and .411 slugging percentage, including just 11 home runs (fourth worst in the PCL). The team does not rank any individuals among the league’s leaders in any major offensive categories.

The club is one of three teams with a sub-4.00 ERA, sitting third at 3.96. However, the Chasers rank third from the bottom with 119 strikeouts.

Individual Hitting

MiLB.com

Who’s Hot:

Outfielder Brett Eibner took a big step forward April 9 when he went 5-for-5, including two home runs and nine RBI. The 25-year old scored three times in the game as Omaha beat Memphis (STL) 20-3. Eibner added a four hit game and a three hit contest over the next week and now sits at .333/.395/.500 with 12 RBI and 12 runs scored on the season. He has excelled against right-handed pitching to the tune of .340/.435/.566 with all three of his homers, which is tied with Francisco Pena for the team lead in round-trippers.

Matt Fields has held the everyday first base duties for Omaha and has responded offensively. Fields hit safely in his first 14 games, and was hitting a white-hot .459/. 524/.622 on April 11. Despite being held hitless through his last three ballgames, the 28-year old is hitting .361/.437/.475 with one homer and 10 RBI in 67 plate appearances.

Paulo Orlando hit safely in 10 of his first 12 ballgames and sits at .328/.371/.345 in 17 games. The Brazilian outfielder has four multi-hit games in early April.

Infielder Johnny Giavotella spent nine days in the big leagues, but returned to Omaha on a hot streak. In his first four games back, Giavotella had seven hits and has compiled a line of .368/.429/.526 in ten Triple-A games.

Who’s Not: 

Prospect Christian Colon has five multi-hit games this season, but sits at just .230/.275/.338 in 18 games. He has one home run, nine RBI and has scored 13 runs, but only four walks, in 78 plate appearances.

Individual Pitching

Who’s Hot: 

Spencer Patton is 1-0 with three saves and a 1.04 ERA in five appearances this season. In 8.2 innings, the 26-year old right-hander has nine strikeouts and allowed four hits and four walks.

Fellow reliever Buddy Baumann has yet to allow a run in ten innings across five appearances. The lefty has surrendered nine hits, four walks and has hit one batter.

Columbian starter Sugar Ray Marimon is 1-0 with a 1.00 ERA in two starts this season. He collected a win in his first appearance, five scoreless innings against Nashville on April 11.

Who’s Not:

John Lamb has allowed five home runs, which is the third most in the Pacific Coast League. The lefty is 0-4with a 5.31 ERA, has surrendered at least two runs in every start this season, and has allowed a .333 batting average across 20.1 innings. With runners on, Lamb hitters have posted a line of .368/.429/.632.

Lefty reliever Donnie Joseph has had two rough outings, in which he allowed a combined eight runs (five earned) across two innings. In 22 plate appearances, left-handed hitters are posting a staggering .357/.609/.357, which includes eight free passes. Not very good for someone that hopes to get lefties out in Kansas City this season.

Royals Roster Issue

This morning the Royals received about as good as news as they could have hoped for on the Omar Infante front. No fractures. No concussion. As a result, the Royals are going to attempt to avoid a DL stint for their shiny new $40 million second baseman.

Unfortunately, for the Royals there is no back up middle infielder on the roster. It now appears that the Royals are going to stick with the current roster for 2-3 days in the hopes of Infante being healthy enough to play by the weekend. What this means is that Danny Valencia will be manning second for at least today and tomorrow's contests.

Personally, I think this is a mistake. Even last night, we saw first hand how risky playing Valencia at second could be. When Valencia turned a potential double play into a throwing error, the Rays were given new life in the 9th inning. In fact, thanks to this play the Rays were able to get the tying run to the plate.

So what could the Royals do?

Well yesterday the Royals called up Donnie Joseph and Michael Mariott. The Royals also recently called up Aaron Brooks. Each of these three pitchers have options available. We also know that Louis Coleman is nearly ready to return to the team following a trip to the disabled list in spring training. Either way in a few days the Royals will need to option one of their relievers to AAA Omaha.

The Royals could speed up that process and option one of the relievers to Omaha now and bring up either Johnny Giavotella or Christian Colon. Another option could be Jason Donald, although he would need to be added to the 40 man roster. By bringing up one of these middle infielders now, the Royals could then have an actual second baseman for the next couple of games, instead of playing Valencia out of position.

If Infante is ready to return to the lineup by the weekend (something that I think is very unlikely), you simply send down the recently called up middle infielder and bring back Coleman off the disabled list, getting you back to a 12 man pitching staff. For the next two games, you'd have to have an 11 man staff, but every reliever should be available for tonight. If having an 11 man staff wasn't an issue a week ago then it shouldn't be now.

If Infante takes a week to return to the lineup, then that makes the call up of a middle infielder even more important. For a team on the borders of contention every game is of the utmost importance. They can't afford to be playing multiple games with players out of position. It is great that Valencia can fill in as an emergency second baseman in situations like last night, but there's no reason the Royals should enter a game with him as the only option.

There is a move that can be easily made and improve the team for tonight. There's no excuse for the Royals not to make it.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

Omaha Storm Chasers 2014 Preview

*Omaha debut

Position Players:

LF - Brian Fletcher

CF - Brett Eibner*

RF - Paulo Orlando

3B - Jimmy Paredes*

SS - Christian Colon

2B - Johnny Giavotella

1B - Matt Fields*

C - Jesus Flores*

Rotation

Chris Dwyer

Danny Duffy

Justin Marks

Ryan Verdugo

John Lamb

Bench

C - Francisco Pena*, IF - Brian Bocock*, OF - Gorkys Hernandez, OF - Melky Mesa*

Bullpen

Buddy Baumann, Aaron Brooks*, Donnie Joseph, Michael Mariot, Clayton Mortensen, Spencer Patton*, Wilking Rodriguez*, Everett Teaford, Brett Tomko*, Ramon Troncoso*, Cory Wade*, P.J. Walters*

Notes:

• A variety of position players and pitchers will make their Omaha debuts this season (14 total), including OF Jimmy Paredes and former Royal Brett Tomko. 
• CF and former Arkansas Razorback Brett Eibner makes his Triple-A debut after spending the past year in NW Arkansas.  Posting career highs in BA, HR, and OPS in 113 games for the Naturals, Eibner started off 2013 on a cold spell (1-32 to begin the season), his future seemed to be on the path towards destruction, but he began to heat up.  At the end of May, he was hitting .208.  In June, he batted .245 with 4 HR, then July he hit .270 with 8 HR.  Come August, he cooled off again, but the fact that he bounced back from such a poor start shows that he worked hard to improve his approach at the plate.  Eibner will impress the crowd at Werner Park with a strong arm and solid range in center field.
• One of the more unfortunate stories of this spring involved a fan favorite: Danny Duffy.  The 25 year old lefty, trying to bounce back from Tommy John surgery in 2012, could not overcome his command issues during his time in the Big League camp.  In 11 innings, Duffy gave up 16 H, 14 ER, 6 HR, and 6 BB.  Both Duffy and Yordano Ventura were vying for the final spot in the Royals' rotation, but in the end, Duffy's struggles and Ventura's dominance made the decision too easy.  Rather than stick Duffy in the bullpen, he will remain as a starter for Omaha to get some innings while working on his control issues.
• Omaha will return a pair of infielders that helped lead them to a Triple-A Championship.  Both Johnny Giavotella and Christian Colon will man second base and shortstop, respectively, for the Storm Chasers.  The two, much like Duffy, were fighting for a spot on the big league roster when newly acquired 2B Omar Infante started having some soreness in his throwing elbow.  Throughout Spring Training, the front runner for a back-up middle infielder was Pedro Ciriaco, who already had Big League playing time with the Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals.  With Infante likely starting the '14 season on the disabled list, Ciriaco seems to have the spot locked down.
• Brett Tomko was an intriguing acquistion this spring.  Turning 41 in April, Tomko has 14 years of ML experience under his belt and last pitched for the Texas Rangers in 2011, only toeing the rubber in 8 games.  Tomko pitched for the Royals in 2008, appearing 16 games, 10 of those were starts.  He logged 60 innings, a 2-7 record with 6.97 ERA, 40 K's, 13 BB, and allowed 49 ER.  In mid-March, Chris Cotillo of MLB Daily Dish reported that Tomko was consistently hitting 91-93 mph on his fastball, while showcasing good command with his changeup and curveball.  A true journeyman of the game, Tomko just isn't ready to hang up the ol' cleats.

Prospect Countdown: #13 Christian Colon

13. Christian Colon Short Stop

milb.com

Age: 24
Position: SS
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 185
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st Round of the 2010 Amateur Draft
From: Cayey, Puerto Rico

2013 Rank: 12

2012 Rank: 12

Landon Adams (15): The Royals were in an uncomfortable spot at the time of the Amateur Draft in June of 2010. There was a consensus across the league that Bryce Harper would go 1, and he would be followed by Jameson Taillon and Manny Machado. Following that there was a widely held belief that from picks 4-40 anything could happen. 

Entering the draft, we heard the Royals were hot and heavy on Florida Gulf Coast product Chris Sale. While many Royals fans will deny it today the line those fans were pushing at the time is that Sale would wind up as a reliever and so they would be disappointed if the Royals took him at 4th overall. Of course, here we are nearly four years later and Sale has accomplished more as a starter than any player in the draft. 

Following the Sale rumors, we were told on the eve of the draft that the Royals had reached an agreement with catcher Yasmani Grandal. Grandal, who was suspended in 2012 for high levels of testosterone, has only logged 334 plate appearances in the Majors, but has hit .271/.380/.429. In the end, the Royals would go with Cal-State Fullerton prospect Christian Colon with the fourth overall selection.

At the time the pick screamed of picking for need. The Royals whose system was in the midst of an incredible breakout, had yet to determine who would play short stop for the teams of the future. Colon's ceiling was limited, but the Royals expected him to be an average fielder, with excellent power, good contact, and Derek Jeter type leadership qualities. What the Royals have gotten is a slightly below average fielder, very little power, average contact, and leadership qualities that have since been questions. 

I'm hopeful that Christian Colon's second half surge in Omaha is a sign of things to come. But given the organization's decision to not give him a September call-up and to sign Omar Infante to a four year deal this off-season, it is likely a further indictment on the player that he has developed into. At this point, the best case I can see is Colon developing into a utility man. This is not a complete slight on the Royals former 1st round pick. A Placido Polanco type of player can carve out a fantastic career and provide a ton of value. As of now though I think a Polanco ceiling is absolute best case. 

Paden Bennett (8): A once highly touted prospect, Colon's stock has slowly trickled down.  However, Colon still does have skills to offer that can help the Royals at the major league level.  Colon started off slow last year but in the 2nd half he really got hot and hit the ball as well as we have seen from him. In July Colon had a .307/.375/.451 line in 296 at bats.  In August he had a .289/.344/.359 in .290 at bats.  The .451 slug I think was a fluke but I do think he has the potential to hang around the .400 slug mark at some point in his career. 

I was calling for Colon to come up last year instead of Chris Getz coming back from injury or Elliot Johnson.  I think Colon has a nice skillset that can help the Royals at 2B.  He doesn't strike out much (10% clip last year) which is always a good tool to add to a roster.  I think the last 2 or 3 months of last season may be something we see more of this season.

Joe Cox (13): While the shine has certainly worn off of Christian Colon over the years, the 24 year old short stop is getting closer and closer to being a major league contributor.  Colon, once a top prospect in the system, never had the bat or the defense at short to maintain his status as a potentially elite prospect.  Very few prospects ever do live up to their high expectations, and Colon has shown a skillset that can be valuable for the Royals, even if he is not receiving every day at bats. 

In 2013, Colon spent his entire season in AAA.  In 577 PA’s, Colon hit .273/.335/.379.  Colon did have 12 home runs, but compiled only 15 more extra base hits.  Throw in 15 stolen bases and a strikeout rate at just 10% and Colon comes in at a decent year at the plate.  Colon’s bat fits better at short, but reports make me think he would not be able to handle short as an everyday job, but could back up at the position in the majors. 

The Royals decided to give a 4 year contract to Omar Infante this offseason, making it very clear that they do not trust Colon to be an everyday player.  The Royals do have other MI options for the bench, but I think they could do worse than Colon as a guy who will hold up on the field and make contact at the plate. 

Dan Ware (18):  With the recent, yet surprising move of utility man Emilio Bonifacio being DFA'd, Christian Colon's stock just increased.  We'll save that for another story.  In the meantime, let's reminisce on the 24 year old's impressive '13 campaign.  For Omaha, Colon played in a career high 131 games, playing the majority at 2B (75 games; 54 games at SS), the inevitable spot on the diamond for him, if and when he makes it to Kauffman Stadium.  

Colon has been recognized as having an average bat, arm, and speed on the bases, with just below-average power, yet out of nowhere, hits 12 HR for Triple-A Omaha with an OFB% of 33.5%.  One of the more impressive tools Colon has in his arsenal is his ability to control the strike zone.  Although he doesn't walk that much (7.1%), his entire career, his K rates have been astonishingly well, sitting at 9% throughout his 4 year stint in the Royals' system.

Considering his athleticism and range, the move to second base was a good one, given that Alcides Escobar has SS locked up for a while. Now with newcomer Omar Infante filling the void at 2B, the only way he'll see playing time with the Royals will be due to injury or a day of rest for Infante, that is if he impresses this Spring.

Nicholas Ian Allen (--):  It appears now that Colon will not reach the potential that comes with being the fourth overall pick in the draft. That said, Colon can still contribute at the Major League level, and he should get an opportunity to do so in 2014. 

There are signs of optimism when looking at Colon. He was on fire the second half of the season, hitting .335/.406/.485 after the Triple-A All-Star Game. The increase in home runs is positive, as is his continued ability to put the ball in play. While his below-average arm signals a full-time switch to second base as a primary position, Colon is flexible enough to grow into a utility role.  In all, there is still time for Colon to have an impactful Major League career, just with a lower ceiling than one would hope.

Total Points: 70

The Futures of Colon and Giavotella

On Tuesday, Fox Sports' Jeffrey Flanagan brought us this article on the futures of Johnny Giavotella and Christian Colon. Obviously, with the signing of Omar Infante, both players Royal future have become a bit hazy. It would seem that barring anything unforeseen neither may soon get the opportunity to Be Royal.

Giavotella has always been a personal favorite of mine. I saw him first hand in about 60 games a few years ago for the Naturals, when the team would win Team of the Year honors from Baseball America. He was a beast. His range was always limited, but all season long he shot lasers all over Arvest Ballpark and occasionally provided fans with highlight reel plays.

Unfortunately, even I have jumped off the former 2nd round pick's bandwagon. In three separate big league stints he has hit a collective .240/.278/.335 over 113 games. Sure, the argument can be made that he has never truly been given a shot, but I would counter that even in those stints he has completely failed to capitalize.

At this point, even when I squint I can't imagine a future with the Royals for Giavotella and I have a hard time imagining that he offers any value in the way of a trade. the Royals could either do Giavotella a favor and pawn him off for next to nothing or they could stash him in AAA as a reserve until he runs out of options. Giavotella's case isn't enhanced by his lack of versatility. If you can hit enough to be a second baseman, you aren't hitting enough to be a left fielder.

As for Colon, I still think there is some potential there. Unlike Giavotella, Colon can play both middle infield spots. I'm hopeful that the Royals even get him some time at third and maybe even left in 2014. If the Royals can do this Colon could develop into a top notch reserve type of player. I think it is time for the Royals to develop Colon for what his true ceiling is as opposed to the ceiling they thought they had when they drafted him.

I've been hesitant to join the Colon fan club, because quite frankly he has yet to show enough ability at the plate. I'm not going to start a riot because the Royals aren't giving a career .273 Minor League hitter a chance at the big league level. At the same time, I wouldn't be shocked at all to see him carry last season's momentum when he hit .319 over the final two months of the season into 2014.

Hopefully, Colon can return to Omaha in 2014 and mash. The Royals would then have a good problem on their hands. It would give the Royals that quality depth piece should Mike Moustakas, Infante, or Alcides Escobar fall to injury. Also, if Moustakas continues to collapse, Infante could slide to third with Colon taking second. If nothing else I expect to see the Royals former first round pick surface in Kansas City as a utility man by season's end. The Royals might try to get through a month or so without a back up middle infielder, but they won't make it through 162 games without one.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

What should the Royals do at Second Base?

After the expected non-tender of Chris Getz, the Royals look to move on to a new second baseman in 2014. As of right now, the Royals have Emilio Bonifacio, Johnny Giovatella, and Christian Colon as guys who you could argue as major league players who could conceivably man the position in 2014. The other option would be to find a new player in free agency or via trade. Unfortunately, we won’t be seeing David Glass shelling out $240 million for Cano, which is err, surprising.

What would be the best avenue for the Royals to take? I don’t know, but let’s dig a little deeper on some of the options they have. Keep in mind I am considering Kansas City as a team that wants to be a World Series contender in 2014 within the limitations of their payroll. Given that they seem willing to give Carlos Beltran a 3yr/ 48 million dollar contract (which may or may not be true) I will at the very least assume they are willing to sign a mid-level free agent or two during this offseason.

1. Trust Emilio Bonifacio: I liked the move to acquire Bonifacio last season, as he has shown the ability to help major league teams due to his flexibility and speed. While there is little defensive value from Bonifacio at short or in center field, defensive metrics seem to like him at 2B, 3B or a corner outfield spot. His offense is not great, with his .279 wOBA last season, though he does switch hit. He is basically a no power speedster with below average on base skills. Fangraphs put him at 0.6 WAR in 420 at bats. For a playoff contender Bonifacio is a solid reserve and a bad starter, and I would guess that is how the Royals see him also.

2. Give Giavotella another chance: I am going ahead and discarding Giavotella as a realistic alternative. He was a fan favorite a few years ago as a no defense all hit second baseman, but he just simply hasn’t hit and there is no way to trust him as second division starter in the major leagues. He is a nice organization depth piece that can play in the case of an injury; but his clock is ticking to show something before he is not even a consideration to keep on a 40 man roster.

3. Roll the dice with Christian Colon: It seems to me that I like Colon more than most. The shine has worn off, as the former top prospect has yet to make a single at bat in the major leagues, and next year will be his age 25 season. That being said, he does look to have a skillset that would make him a viable bench bat in the major leagues in 2014. He can back-up at shortstop and second base with a decent enough glove and a decent hit tool. Last season he had a .325 wOBA in AAA which included 12 home runs and an impressive 9.9% K rate.

We know that the Royals do love them some low strikeout players and Colon seems to fill a hole in their 25 man roster as back up middle infielder. Like Bonifacio, though, his value is better served with limited at-bats, and the consistent rule applies that a playoff team can’t trust an average prospect with no major league experience to start for them in 2014. In my opinion, the Royals will be looking to add someone outside the organization to start at second in 2014.

4. Sign Omar Infante: Omar Infante was good last year. In fact, he’s been a valuable player for the last four years. He is a plus fielder and a plus at the plate, compiling 3.1 WAR in 2013 according to Fangraphs. The problem with Infante is price. The Yankees have been said to already have a contract offer on the table and it looks like he could demand a contract similar to the one Jhonny Peralta received earlier this offseason. This seems a little out of the Royals price range.

5. Trade for Brandon Phillips: Brandon Phillips generally gets called overrated by SABR folks but I think that his large RBI totals and mainstream media love makes people forget that Phillips is a very good player from an analytical standpoint also, even if he has declined each of the last two years. 2013 was the first year since 2006 that Phillips did not have a WAR over 3.0. Even banged up, he played in 151 games last year, and has hit 18 home runs for the past four seasons, all but guaranteeing we will see the same total in 2014. His offense has dropped significantly from his monster 2011 season, seeing his wOBA drop to .307 and an ever increasing K%.

Phillips has 4 years and 50 million dollars left on his contract. It would probably take some combination of outfielder/ prospect and relief arm to acquire Phillips, with the Reds conceivably eating somewhere between 10-20 million dollars of his contract. I was hypothesizing a Cain for Phillips swap or maybe a Dyson/ Crow for Phillips swap. This would give the Royals Phillips around the same price Infante will get this offseason, but with an extra fourth year on his contract.

The Reds seem to be wavering on whether or not they actually want to trade Phillips, but my guess is that they would have no problem seeing him go for the right price. While this certainly should be a consideration for the Royals, having to deal pieces for an arguably overpaid veteran on the decline could work out very poorly for them moving forward.

6. Sign Mark Ellis: This is one of my two favorite options for the Royals. Mark Ellis had his 5.75 million dollar option declined by the Dodgers, which seems pretty backwards to me since they were willing to shell out $10 million to Brian Wilson, but I guess Cuban defector Alex Guerrero makes Ellis as expendable. Ellis compiled 433 at bats last year and contributed 1.8 WAR. He has been an elite fielder his entire career and while this skill has declined over time, there is no reason to expect his won’t be the case moving forward.

Ellis isn’t a complete loss at the plate, either, as a guy who does a little but not much of everything. He had an OPS of just .674 and a wOBA of .300 last year. But that is not why you are signing Mark Ellis. I think the Royals could easily lure Ellis to KC given the playing time he could receive. I would have no problem giving him a multi-year deal worth 4-5 million per year to obtain him. That would be a huge upgrade over last year for a fraction of the cost it would take to get a slightly better player in Infante or Phillips. The Royals look to agree with me, as it looks like themselves along with the Dodgers and Rays have already expressed interest in the veteran according to Ken Rosenthal.

7. Trade for Nick Franklin: The Mariners are weird. Not only are they weird but they also just signed Robinson Cano to a reported 10 year, 240 million dollar contract, and now have a bit of a middle infield logjam with both Brad Miller and Nick Franklin already on the roster. After years of knowing that Franklin would have to move off of short, they finally did so once he reached the major league level in 2013, and he probably projects as an average at best second baseman defensively. He does have several years of control being that he didn’t get a call to the big leagues until midseason last year.

Franklin’s minor league track record and major league cup of tea suggest that he is going to have problems striking out at the big league level, but he has always shown a very good ability to draw a walk and has also shown a plus hit tool over his minor league career. Franklin did struggle at the major league level, so there is risk here, but there is reason to believe he will improve given what the scouts have said about him, along with the numbers he has put up.

Again, and I can’t stress this enough, the Mariners are weird. It is hard to say what they would want in return for a trade. It does seem like a position of weakness for the Mariners (the bullpen) is a position of strength for the Royals, who have already expressed some interest in moving a guy like Aaron Crow for the right return.

I think the Mariners are more likely to add Franklin as a piece of a bigger trade (David Price?), but if that doesn’t work out the Royals could make a good trade partner for the talented middle infielder. Of course, there are other options out there, but I think these are all realistic options as to what we could see the Royals front office doing.

The market on Mark Ellis seems relatively thin, so unless the Dodgers get scared of their newly acquired Cuban defector playing second every day and offer Ellis an overpay of a contract (which is realistic), I think the Royals could be a prime candidate to acquire him. He wouldn’t be as big of a splash as other free agent/ trade options, but he is a solid major league starter that would allow the Royals to put middle infielders they have in the bench roles they should probably be in.

Prospect Countdown: #12 Christian Colon

12. Christian Colon Short Stop

milb.com

Age: 24
Position: SS
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 180
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 1st Round (4th Overall) of the 2010 Amateur Draft
From: Cayey, Puerto Rico



Paden Bennett (17):  My hype for Christian Colon has dramatically decreased since we drafted him in the 1st round of the 2010 Amateur draft.  Colon just really hasn't ever progressed.  Instead he has just remained pretty average with the ability to make contact.  He could be a solid defensive second baseman but I just don't see his bat really coming around which will hold him back from being an every day player in this league.  However, I put him at 17th on my list because with the gap at 2B for the Royals (though I still love Giavotella) he has the shot to step his game up and make a push.  Let's hope he figures it out this season.

Joe Cox (12): Christian Colon has been talked about as a Kansas City prospect for a few years now, and though his value has diminished some as a prospect, he still has valuable skills at a major position of need.  Colon turns 24 in May and I think he should have a chance to be the everyday second baseman by the All-Star break.  Colon’s greatest skill is his ability to make contact, striking out only 27 times in 273 AA at bats while walking 31 times. 

Most scouts feel that he should not play shortstop at the major league level, but those same scouts say that he has the skills to be a plus fielder at second.  Other than making contact, Colon does not do anything great, but does a little bit of everything with the bat, swatting 5 homeruns and stealing 12 bases in AA last season.  Colon is a ‘high floor’ prospect who does not have a ceiling of anything more than a second division starter, but he could be considered an upgrade over Chris Getz and Johnny Giavotella for the major league club as early as this year.

Damion Mandalas (15): Over the past few seasons, we have heard Colon compared to Placido Polanco on numerous occasions. Now many Royals fans would have winced at this comp at the time of Colon's selection as the #4 overall pick in the 2010 draft. At this point, Royals fans should not be too upset if this proves to be accurate. Polanco is a career .299/.344/.403 hitter that has compiled 42 fWAR over fifteen career seasons.

Colon's development is about a year to a year and a half behind that of Polanco, but thus far his numbers compare very favorably to the former 19th round pick. As a minor leaguer, Polanco struck out in 7.5% of his plate appearances, Colon has struck out 9.3% of the time. However, Colon's walk percentage of 8% is stronger than Polanco's, which stood at 4.7%. Colon also has the edge in ISO at .097 to .065.

Colon might be fringey as a short stop, but as Joe stated, there is good reason to believe that he will be more than capable as he shifts to the other side of the second base bag. There's good reason to still believe that he can develop into a solid regular at second base, but the floor is that of a quality utility man at the Major League level. The Royals drafted Colon with the hope that he could be the long term answer at short stop. That hole is now filled, but Colon could still be the long term answer at second base.

Dan Ware (11):  If Colon wants to be the second baseman for the Royals in 2013, now is the time to step it up a notch.  There is quite the battle this Spring to secure a spot next to Hosmer on the diamond that includes Giavotella, Getz, and Falu.  There are only 2 ways I envision Colon ever seeing time at shortstop in Kansas City: Heaven for bid something were to happen to Escobar and requires some time on the DL, or if Colon is used primarily as a utility infielder.  Even though he has been playing at SS in the minors, he is considered to show above average range at second.

As for the bat, it has always been labeled as his best tool.  For the most part, it has kept its promise.  This past offseason, he played 39 games in the Puerto Rico Winter League and compiled a promising .301/.363/.386 line.  If Giavotella, or even Getz, can't hold up their end of the bargain in Kansas City, Colon could very well get a call-up.  The battle for second base is too early to tell with ST just starting, as all four candidates haven't done bad jobs at all.  Unfortunately, Colon is at the bottom of the table with just 1 hit in his first 6 at bats, but his plate appearances will surely increase as we get into March.

Total Points: 69

The Future of Second Base

When the Royals selected Christian Colon with the fourth overall pick of the 2010 Amateur Draft, it looked as though they had filled the hole that was shortstop of the future. Several months later the Royals netted Alcides Escobar in the Zack Greinke trade and it appeared that Colon would eventually shift to second and the Royals infield would be set.

But then Colon struggled. In his first full season of professional baseball he hit just .257/.325/.342 in the hitter's paradise known as Arvest Ballpark. Meanwhile, fellow second base prospect Johnny Giavotella was doing his best to ensure that he would not be overlooked. One year after hitting .322/.395/.460, Giavotella blistered the Pacific Coast League by hitting .338/.390/.481. Entering 2012, it appeared that the Royals second baseman of the future wasn't Colon, but instead Giavotella, at least in the short term.

However, Giavotella played poorly in Spring Training, and while his counterpart Chris Getz didn't play much better he did enough to win the job. Giavotella responded by getting off to a slow start in Omaha, and then eventually heating up and raising his line to .331/.408/.504.

Down in Northwest Arkansas, Colon has also been doing his best to raise his stock. So far in 2012, Colon is hitting .311/.383/.449. Many believe Colon is finally getting his feet under him in professional baseball. Although, I should note that his 2012 line drive percentage of 14.6% is lower than his 2011 mark of 16.3%. With his 2012 success, it seems that Colon has re-positioned himself as Kansas City's long term answer.

As for the short term, the Royals have filled the position with a platoon of the aforementioned Giavotella and minor league warrior Irving Falu. Falu, who boasts a career minor league OPS of .694, is off to a fast start in Kansas City hitting .359.

Falu is an excellent story and it is hard to fault the Royals for playing the hot hand. I also think that Falu could wind up being a valuable asset as a cheap utility options for the next several seasons. Thanks to his defensive versatility, contact skills, and cost that's a valuable asset. However, I don't see why the Royals would call up Giavotella to platoon and pinch hit.

At this point, I get the vibe that Kansas City doesn't view Giavotella as a regular. Look at how the Royals have developed their prospects, the guys they view as long term staples of the ball club. They have repeatedly made it clear that you don't bring up prospects to bat sparingly. But yet all of the sudden they revert to the Justin Huber style of development for Johnny Giavotella? I have a hard time buying that.

I hope I'm wrong. The guy has already proven himself repeatedly in AAA. Maybe the organization doesn't see value in him playing everyday there anymore, but are you really giving him the best opportunity to succeed by giving him sparse at bats? Keep Irving Falu at utility, like I said he has value there.

Play Giavotella everyday. If you do so he'll have at least a season to establish some value. If Colon is knocking on the door, you have a good problem on your hands and have created a commodity. But don't treat Giavotella and Falu as placeholders, there's no benefit in that in the short or the long term.

Prospect Countdown: #12 Christian Colon

#12 Christian Colon


Age: 22
Position: SS
Height: 6-1
Weight: 180
Acquired: Drafted 4th Overall in the 2010 Amateur Draft
From: Cayey, Puerto Rico



In the 2010 Amateur Draft there were three top-notch bonifide prospects: Bryce Harper, Jameson Taillon, and Manny Machado. Unfortunately, the Kansas City Royals selection came fourth. After hearing rumors that the Royals were leaning toward Chris Sale, and then hearing the Royals had a pre-draft agreement with Yasmani Grandal. Eventually, the dust settled and Christian Colon was a Royal.

One benefit of the Christian Colon selection was that he agreed almost immediately to the recommended slot bonus. Thanks to the speed of the negotiation, Colon was able to get sixty professional games under his belt in the 2010 season. Colon didn't dominate in his first professional stint, but considering he was fresh out of college and playing in Frawley Stadium his numbers weren't a disappointment.

The 2011 season was a different story. Christian Colon, who many already believe to lack the range to be an adequate big league shortstop, posted 18 errors. What was more concerning though, was Colon's bat. Christian Colon has pretty average tools across the board, but his bat had always been considered plus. When your bat is supposed to be the tool that carries you to the show, and you hit .257/.325/.342, it becomes a cause for concern.

The good news is that Colon, put his problems behind him in the Arizona Fall League. There he hit .299/.365/.429, while playing almost exclusively at second base. The Royals will continue to play him at short stop, but as a second baseman, Colon's displays above average range. Long term Colon should stick as either a second baseman or utility infielder.

Colon will return to Northwest Arkansas in 2012, but given his supposed polish, he could be ready extremely quickly. At the moment Giavotella is the second baseman of the future for Kansas City, but if Colon hits like scouts initially anticipated his defensive upside and bat could eventually unseat him.

Photo taken from Around the Horn KC

Winter Meetings: Day 1 Round Up

So here are some quick hits of the Royals rumors today:

1. Royals are one of five teams interested in Carlos Guillen. This would have to come real cheap, and since Guillen wouldn't even be a viable back up for Escobar, I'm just not sure how this fits. Looking at the market, I'm beginning to think that Navarro presents the best blend of versatility and bat skill for our bench. It just becomes a matter of how important for the organization to have him playing everyday.

2. Royals are dangling Soria and Holland for pitching, but are asking for a lot. The Royals have every right to be asking for a lot, even considering last season, Soria has been one of the top closers in baseball and still has an incredibly favorable contract. Holland of course is under team control for five more seasons after dominating in 2011.

3. Royals are aggressively pursuing starting pitching and are talking with the Athletics about Gio Gonzalez. I haven't heard of any specific names from the Royals end, but I would imagine the Athletics are demanding a lot in return. For me my interest in Gio hinges on the Athletics demand. I don't include Myers, but a package involving one of either Odorizzi or Montgomery, Colon and a lower level guy like Eibner, Bonifacio, Ventura, Yambati, or Adam would make sense to me, but I'd imagine wouldn't for the Athletics.

4. Royals have also kicked tires on Jeremy Guthrie. As is case with everyone greatly depends on cost. I think Guthrie's numbers would improve should he be dealt to Kansas City, however, with a cursory glance over his numbers I'm not convinced we'd be adding anything more than a #3. Quite frankly we've got plenty of potential #3s.

5. Royals have scouted Cuban Yoenis Cespedes. To be clear, Dayton Moore basically said he would likely fall way out of the Royals price range, but there is a precedent for the Royals shocking the industry on the Cuban market. If the Royals do love Cespedes, and are concerned with Cain... well... yeah, I'd still be shocked if we landed Cespedes.

6. The Royals and Rays have discussed Shields, with Rays seeking a return of Soria, Myers, and Colon. In trades for guys like Shields, teams typically have to give up a centerpiece, quality player, and one or two complimentary pieces. My problem with this trade is that the Royals would be giving up too much. Soria is an elite closer on a team friendly deal, Myers is a blue chip prospect, and Christian Colon was the #4 overall selection in the 2010 draft. But don't forget, it is rare for teams to actually get the haul that they initially demand. Just because the Rays are seeking that package, doesn't mean that the Royals would have give up that to obtain Big Game James. We'll just have to wait and see.

What if... Aaron Crow Wasn't Available in 2009?

Just a couple of weeks ago Ben Goessling of the MASN Sports asked a simple question: What if the Nationals had signed Aaron Crow? of course since Goessling's target audience was the Washington Nationals fan base, he exclusively focused on what could have been from a Nationals perspective. You can view the article by clicking here.

So what would Aaron Crow's signing mean from a Royals' point of view, had the Nationals and Crow's agent the Hendricks Brothers not squabbled over the final points of the deal? (The two sides were said to be less than $1 million apart.)

Obviously if Crow would have signed with Washington in 2008, the Royals would not have been in a position to select him in 2009. Might the Royals have considered another advanced starter? North Carolina righty Alex White went just three selections later to the Cleveland Indians, maybe he would have been the pick.

Two seasons later White boasts a career minor league ERA of 2.31. He has amassed 155 strikeouts to 55 walks in 190.2 innings. This season he was traded along with Drew Pomeranz (more on him later) to Colorado for starter Ubaldo Jimenez. Obviously we don't know how White would have been affected by spending the last two seasons in a different organization (the same can be said for any player in this post), however if the Royals would have taken White he would have likely broken into the Big League rotation at some point in 2011, and would at least have a very strong shot to break in the rotation to begin 2012.

There is also, my personal preference for who the Royals should have selected and that would be the Texas teenage flamethrower Shelby Miller. Miller was selected seven picks after Crow, and while I have never read anything linking the Royals to Miller, he was another advanced righty (despite being drafted out of high school) selected in the middle of the first round, so the possibility exists that he was considered.

While Shelby Miller hasn't posted the ERA at the upper levels that White has he has dominated in his own right. He is now just twenty-one and has already pitched in 86.2 innings at the big league level. For his career he has an 11.4 K-Rate to a 3.2 BB-Rate and a 3.17 ERA. In my opinion this would've been the best case for the Royals, but not the most likely.

If the Royals wouldn't have selected Aaron Crow, most signs point to one other guy as being their selection: Athletics shortstop Grant Green. Green was selected immediately after Crow, after some predraft buzz predicting that the Royals would select him if he was available at pick 12.

Green was assigned to High-A in 2010 and burned the league for a .318/.363/.520 slash, while playing 114 games at short stop. Of course in 2010, the Royals had the 4th selection of the draft. For this pick they selected a player with a similar profile as Green in Cal State-Fullerton shortstop Christian Colon.

I'm not going to call this a need pick, because it was clear that after the top 3, there was no clear hierarchy. The Royals who felt several guys had similar value went with the position they felt was the weakest in their system: shortstop. Would they have selected Colon had they taken Green the year before? I seriously doubt it.

So who might they have taken instead? Well prior to the draft there was a distinct buzz around three other prospects. Drew Pomeranz, Chris Sale and Yasmani Grandal.

Pomeranz was the advanced college lefty out of Ole Miss. He was selected fifth overall by the Cleveland Indians, and as I have previously stated he was flipped along with Alex White this past summer for Ubaldo Jiminez.

Had the Royals selected Pomeranz they would have yet another lefty knocking on the door of a big league rotation spot. I would guess he'd spend part of the season pitching in Omaha, eventually breaking in sometime midway through the year, unless he had a killer Spring Training. For his minor league career Pomeranz owns a 1.78 era with a 3.13 K:BB ratio.

Chris Sale was linked the Royals possibly more than any other prospect in the days leading up to the draft. Sale the tall lanky lefty taken out of Florida Gulf Coast University. Like Aaron Crow many projected him as a future reliever and for that reason he wasn't a personal favorite of mine.

Since being drafted 13th overall by the Chicago White Sox, Sale has spent most of his professional time at the Major League level. For his career in Chicago, Sale has came out of the pen for 94.1 innings, while posting a 2.58 era. He's been a force in the back end of Chicago's bullpen, but not necessarily what you want from a top draft pick.

Finally we get to Yasmani Grandal. Roughly twenty-four hours prior to the draft a rumor dropped that stated the Royals had reached a pre-draft agreement with Grandal to make him the fourth player selected in the 2010 Amatuer draft. You can read that report here.

Would the Royals be in a better position right now, had the Nationals signed Aaron Crow in 2008? We really can't be sure. We know that the Royals would have never been able to acquire the only player from the 2009 draft to already have an All Star appearance under his belt, but then again that same guy appears to be settling into a career as a reliever. (Yes, I know he will likely get a shot at the rotation this Spring. Yes, I'd also be surprised if he can thrive in a rotation.)

Had the Royals not been able to select Aaron Crow in 2009, and still went for the advanced righty, they would likely now have Alex White knocking on the door of the big league rotation with Christian Colon in Double-A.

If the Royals would have taken Grant Green like many believed they would they would probably have Grant Green coming off a monster year in Double-A, and either Yasmani Grandal pushing Salvador Perez for a roster spot or Chris Sale in the back end of the bullpen.

Things like this have a domino effect especially in professional sports, but it is no less fun to at least consider how it may have played out.

Prospect Countdown: 10-6

10. Jeremy Jeffress RHP

By now we all know several things about Jeremy Jeffress. First, he came as part of the Greinke to Milwaukee deal. Second, he has had to serve a couple of suspensions due to recreational drug use. Third, Jeffress throws gas.

Upon acquiring Jeffress the Royals elected to use him strictly as a reliever, continuing on a decision the Brewers made with him last summer. This is definitely a good move. In the pen Jeffress stuff can play up even more and his "80" fastball can be used in the late innings to render hitters obsolete.

Jeffress also has a strong slider that sits between 78-83 mph. His changeup still needs a lot of work but as a late inning reliever it won't be crucial to his success that this pitch develops. Given the strength of his triple digit fastball his slider should be plenty to throw hitters off balance in the late innings.

Jeffress could be the closer of the future for Kansas City and could take the reins from Joakim Soria when his time in Kansas City comes to pass. However, that could still be several years away so the Jeffress will have plenty of time to get acclimated to late inning, high-leverage situations. He could be a Joel Zamaya type for Kansas City and along with Soria could form a vicious two-headed monster at the end of games as soon as this season begins.

Jeffress will likely begin the year in the big league pen, and as the season progress could be pushed into higher leverage situations. If Tejeda is dealt at the deadline like I expect, Jeffress is a prime candidate to become the right-handed set-up man.

9. Christian Colon SS

The Royals have made a living drafting right behind the consensus and in the 2010 draft this was no different. Heading into draft day the top three were very clearly Bryce Harper, Jameson Taillon, and Manny Machado. The Royals picked 4th and many believed that prospects 4-40 could go in any order and be easily justified. The Royals elected to go with the guy I pinned as my choice roughly six months before the selection was made: Christian Colon.

Christian Colon immediately strengthened my good feeling regarding the pick when he signed for the MLB slot recommendation so that he could start his pro career. Due to this enthusiasm Colon was able to play in sixty games for Wilmington in 2010, which puts him ahead of the curve right from the start.

Colon's numbers weren't awe-inspiring in his debut but they were strong enough to make me extremely confident in his future. Colon has solid tools across the board. He could find his home run totals in the 10-15 range and the same could be said for his stolen base numbers. He should post a strong average throughout his career and his hit tool is obviously his best.

Many have compared Colon's floor to that of Placido Polanco and some have even thrown out Derek Jeter comparisons. Colon will probably fall somewhere in the middle and be a solid contributor with a long career, but never being a superstar. Colon can speak both Spanish and English and scouts rave about his leadership qualities.

With the acquisition of Alcides Escobar many expect Colon to shift over to second. However, the Royals are going to continue to develop him as a shortstop at least for the short term. Colon's range and arm have both been questioned, but the organization believes that his fundamentals are strong enough to be an adaquate fielding shortstop. If Escobar can hit, then Colon will eventually shift to second and be an above average fielder from the right side of the diamond.

Colon should begin the season in Northwest Arkansas and along with a top notch rotation and mega prospect Wil Myers they should push for a second Texas League title.

8. Jake Odorizzi RHP

Like Jeffress, Odorizzi came to Kansas City as a part of the package Kansas City received for Zack Greinke. Ironically some scouts have stated that Odorizzi could be a lesser version of Greinke at some point down the road. Odorizzi ranked as the top prospect with his former club. However, he comes in at just number eight on the Royal Revival Prospect Countdown.

Odorizzi was drafted in the supplemental round of the 2008 draft and many in the game regarded him as the top prep pitcher available. Odorizzi's reminds me a bit of Kansas' City's Tim Melville as a top right handed high school talent that isn't far into his development. Unlike Melville, Odorizzi has not yet tasted high A competition due to the Brewers conservative approach with him.

Odorizzi pitches out of a 3/4 arm slot and displays a fastball that sits in the low 90s, a slider in the high 70s, a curve in the mid 70s and a changeup that sits in the lows 80s. All of his secondary pitches need to show improvement, but scouts believe his curve could develop into an above average pitch.

Odorizzi may have the highest upside out of all the players the Royals received for Greinke. He could develop into a frontline starter and provide the Royals a right handed anchor for a predominately left-handed rotation. Odorizzi should begin the season in Wilmington and could filter up to Northwest Arkansas for the second half depending on his numbers and what happens ahead of him.

7. Chris Dwyer LHP





Now is the time that we reach what has been dubbed by some as the "Sinister Seven" this final group offers three future middle of the order superstar caliber bats and four southpaws with front of the rotation potential. The system is considered strong for its depth of prospects at all positions. However, the next seven prospects give Kansas City what some believe to be the best farm system in the history of system rankings.

Chris Dwyer is just another guy that shouldn't be a Royal. He was drafted in the fourth round of the 2009 draft. He is a blend of a scout's choice and an overslot bonus baby. He was a rare draft eligible freshman and even though his numbers at Clemson weren't great, the Royals front office loved what they say and put the dollar sign on the muscle of $1.45 million.

Dwyer has a fastball that sits in the low to mid 90s and a changeup that he has greatly improved since the time he was drafted it. But it is his 12-6, hammer curveball that turns him into an elite prospect. The pitch was rated by prospect guru John Sickels as the top curve among prospects. Coming from the same release point as his fastball it is a true out pitch in every sense of the word.

Injury precautions limited Dwyer's workload upon his promotion to the Texas League last season. But there are no concerns going forward. He should begin 2011 in one of the best minor league rotations in recent memory for the Northwest Arkansas Naturals.

6. Danny Duffy LHP

Duffy gave Royals nation a scare a year ago when he abruptly left the game to sort his life priorities. After some time off he decided that baseball was important and he returned to the game. After the Royals rebuilt his arm strength he found himself in the Naturals' rotation where he continued to post dominating minor league results and show an uptick in velocity.

Duffy has a career k rate of 10.5 and a career walk rate of 2.9. He is one of the most advanced arms in the system and was even granted an opportunity to make the big league club out of Spring Training. Duffy didn't take advantage of this and at times he seemed timid, displaying poor command. He also had flashes of brilliance with six strikeouts versus just five hits allowed in eight innings pitched.

Duffy has a fastball that has reached 97 mph, but works best when he is in the low or mid 90s. He also has a changeup that should be an above average offering and a curveball that could be scrapped for a slider that will fit better with his cross fire delivery.

Duffy will begin the season in the Northwest Arkansas Naturals rotation and with a strong season should find time in Kansas City by season's end.

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