Thoughts on the Omar Infante deal

Last Friday, Omar Infante and the Kansas City Royals agreed to a four year, $30 million contract.  Omar Infante will be plugged into second base in 2014, moving Emilio Bonifacio into a utility role and moving Johnny Giavotella and Christian Colon to depth pieces who could move from AAA to the majors throughout the year depending on injuries/ needs.  I already went over in a previous post that I felt the Royals were best suited using free agency or trade to find a starting second baseman in 2014, as opposed to working from within the organization. 

I also stated in said post that I felt Omar Infante was going to be too pricy for the Royals, as the Yankees seemed to be a perfect fit after losing Robinson Cano to Seattle.  In fact, at that time is looked much more likely we would be seeing Beltran with the Royals and Infante in New York, not the reserve.  And boy it looks like things may have worked out for the Royals.  Carlos Beltran costs $15 million more for one less year of team control, while also costing the Yankees a draft pick in next year’s amateur draft, something that was not tied to signing Infante since he did not receive a qualifying offer from the Tigers.  

A comparable player to Omar Infante is Brandon Phillips, who still has 4 yrs/ $50 million dollars left on his contract that the Reds would happily get rid of.  When I say comparable, I mean they are within six months in age (with Infante being the younger 32 year old entering next year) while posting comparable fWAR over the last two years. 

That being said, Phillips has been worth almost twice as much fWAR over the course of his career, but I agree with the idea that it is unwise to evaluate players based on their peak, and instead based on present projections.  Phillips clearly has peaked and has been regressing each of the past two seasons after a very good 2011, and is still an elite defender.  Infante is on the wrong side of the aging curve, but had arguably his best season of his career in 2013.  Both are projected to earn about 2.5 WAR next season, as projection systems will (and should) expect regression moving forward. 

So if we agree that these two are more or less similarly useful players, then it is not hard to argue that Infante at 4/30 is a nice deal relative to a ‘bad’ contract.  But how should we evaluate the Infante deal in and of itself?  I will take very loose math that Fangraphs will sometimes use to quickly look at a player’s contract based on value of win and expected regression.  In this model they value a win in the present market to be worth roughly $6.5mil/WAR, with a player regressing .5 WAR per year. 

2014: 2.5 WAR

2015: 2.0 WAR

2016: 1.5 WAR

2017: 1.0 WAR

Total: 7.0 WAR

7 WAR is ‘worth’ 45 million dollars, so by this thought process the Royals may have gotten Infante at quite a bargain.  Even towards the end of his contract he could be above replacement level, and won’t be worth so much money that even in a Bonifacio like role in 2017 he could easily continue to provide value relative to his contract. 

Also this whole piece is heavily reliant on the use of WAR, which, like all Sabremetic statistics, is flawed in telling the entire story.  I do believe it is a helpful tool to use when evaluating contracts, however, and does help paint the picture of a player’s value. 

With Infante and Aoki in the fold for the Royals they have added two contact hitters with a little pop and a little speed (a little more from Aoki).  These players go right along with the low strikeout strategy that seems to be implemented within the team, as Hosmer, Butler, Escobar, Perez and even Moustakas (not counting all his pop ups) make decent contact for their positions.  The same can be said about the team’s clear strategy to field one of the best defenses in the league, thus utilizing their big ballpark, and help with a weak rotation.

In my post I referred to earlier, I concluded that by arguing the best alternative for the Royals was to sign Mark Ellis, who recently signed a one year deal with the St. Louis Cardinals.  While Ellis could have had more playing time elsewhere, it would not surprise me if Ellis wanted to go to St. Louis all along in a platoon type role for a team that made the World Series last year, so this may not have ever been an option anyways. 

I still would rather have Ellis as a stop gap for one year in theory, but the contract that Infante received was far less than expected and I would consider myself a big fan of the signing.  The 2014 Royals are being built to contend, and now the biggest hole on the offensive side is filled, making rotation depth the next step in improving the team’s chances for a playoff run.

Converting fWAR to Wins; How can KC get to 45.5?

In 2013, the ranked 8th in all of baseball in total team fWAR. The only teams to rank ahead of Kansas City were the Red Sox, Tigers, Rays, Rangers, Athletics, Dodgers, and the Braves. Now we know that the Royals under performed in terms of their Pythagorean win expectancy, which called for them to finish the year 87-75, but I was curious about what the predictive value in fWAR was.

By taking the last three years worth of team fWAR totals, wins, and expected wins I was able to determine that fWAR has a predictive value of approximately .876 for a team's total win count. This number is somewhat lower than the predictive value of expected wins, which over the last three years was .946. Nonetheless, I had a linear formula created for converting Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement to wins. Here is what excel came up with: Wins = (fWAR*0.9069) + 50.772.

In 2013, it took 92 wins to reach baseball's postseason. Working backward, that would mean a team should need to accumulate roughly 45.5 fWAR to reach that threshold. A season ago, the Royals were able to net 42.4 fWAR. This would mean that from 2013 to 2014, Kansas City needs to bring in an additional 3.1 fWAR to close the gap.

Thus far this off-season and throughout 2013, the Royals have already bid farewell to George Kottaras (0.7 fWAR), Adam Moore (0.1), Miguel Tejada (0.4), Chris Getz (-0.1), Carlos Pena (-0.2), Elliot Johnson (-0.2), Jamey Carroll (-0.5), Jeff Francoeur (-0.9), Ervin Santana (3.0), Will Smith (0.5), Bruce Chen (1.4), and Luis Mendoza (0.4). Add this all together and you have 4.6 fWAR to replace just to hold even.

Fortunately, the Royals thus far haven't set on their hands this winter. They've already added Jason Vargas to the rotation (1.5) and Norichika Aoki to the outfield (1.7). In total the Royals are 4.5 fWAR away from that magic 45.5 fWAR mark and 92 wins according to that formula. Where can the Royals pick up these wins?

At this point, there are a few places left that the Royals could pick up a few fWAR:

1. Player Progression - the easiest way to pick up fWAR is for the current crop of players to simply play better than they did last year. Unfortunately, you can't expect an entire roster to progress. As often as players progress, they will regress which typically means the treading of water for a team. The good news for the Royals is that the vast majority of their roster is in a good spot on the aging curve, making progression more likely than regression.
2. Redistribution of IP and PA - Obviously, with players leaving there will be a redistribution of playing time. For example, Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura were worth 0.6 fWAR in 40 innings pitched last season. If they can keep that pace and throw 360 innings, this would create an additional 4.8 in fWAR. Of course, the same can go the other way. With Aoki in the fold David Lough and his 2.4 fWAR figure to factor in less in 2014.
3. Second Base - Given that eight spots in the lineup appear to be set, this is the last spot that could really see an upgrade in 2014. Omar Infante was worth 3.1 fWAR in 2013. Mark Ellis was worth 1.8. Howie Kendrick worth 2.7. Second base won't close the whole gap, but at this point it is the Royals most surefire way to inch closer to 45.5 fWAR in 2014.
4. Bench - The final spot for the Royals to continue to upgrade is their bench. Last season the Royals had an excellent bench in terms of fWAR. That bench has already been weakened at back up catcher. The Royals look to have a good group of back up outfielders, and with Emilio Bonifacio pushed to a super utility role throughout the season it could provide just a slight bump in the bench's season long fWAR total.
5. Starting Pitcher - The Royals already have brought in Jason Vargas, and they already have a few in house options to fill the final two rotation spots. However, if the Royals brought in a starter with decent value to replace the innings provided by Bruce Chen and Wade Davis in the four spot, the Royals could net another easy positive gain.

As you have probably realized right now, Kansas City is at a point on the win curve in which each little piece of marginal value is critical. This is why the Kottaras decision was so infuriating. It simply created an additional half win that Kansas City would need to find.

At this point, second base is the key spot moving forward. The Royals need to find an answer here. If they can do that they'll really close the gap heading into camp. It is much more realistic to need your lineup to pick up an extra 1.5 wins in progression than it is to ask them to pick up 3.5 wins in progression. I'll be severely disappointed if Emilio Bonifacio heads to Surprise with a starting job to lose.

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What should the Royals do at Second Base?

After the expected non-tender of Chris Getz, the Royals look to move on to a new second baseman in 2014. As of right now, the Royals have Emilio Bonifacio, Johnny Giovatella, and Christian Colon as guys who you could argue as major league players who could conceivably man the position in 2014. The other option would be to find a new player in free agency or via trade. Unfortunately, we won’t be seeing David Glass shelling out $240 million for Cano, which is err, surprising.

What would be the best avenue for the Royals to take? I don’t know, but let’s dig a little deeper on some of the options they have. Keep in mind I am considering Kansas City as a team that wants to be a World Series contender in 2014 within the limitations of their payroll. Given that they seem willing to give Carlos Beltran a 3yr/ 48 million dollar contract (which may or may not be true) I will at the very least assume they are willing to sign a mid-level free agent or two during this offseason.

1. Trust Emilio Bonifacio: I liked the move to acquire Bonifacio last season, as he has shown the ability to help major league teams due to his flexibility and speed. While there is little defensive value from Bonifacio at short or in center field, defensive metrics seem to like him at 2B, 3B or a corner outfield spot. His offense is not great, with his .279 wOBA last season, though he does switch hit. He is basically a no power speedster with below average on base skills. Fangraphs put him at 0.6 WAR in 420 at bats. For a playoff contender Bonifacio is a solid reserve and a bad starter, and I would guess that is how the Royals see him also.

2. Give Giavotella another chance: I am going ahead and discarding Giavotella as a realistic alternative. He was a fan favorite a few years ago as a no defense all hit second baseman, but he just simply hasn’t hit and there is no way to trust him as second division starter in the major leagues. He is a nice organization depth piece that can play in the case of an injury; but his clock is ticking to show something before he is not even a consideration to keep on a 40 man roster.

3. Roll the dice with Christian Colon: It seems to me that I like Colon more than most. The shine has worn off, as the former top prospect has yet to make a single at bat in the major leagues, and next year will be his age 25 season. That being said, he does look to have a skillset that would make him a viable bench bat in the major leagues in 2014. He can back-up at shortstop and second base with a decent enough glove and a decent hit tool. Last season he had a .325 wOBA in AAA which included 12 home runs and an impressive 9.9% K rate.

We know that the Royals do love them some low strikeout players and Colon seems to fill a hole in their 25 man roster as back up middle infielder. Like Bonifacio, though, his value is better served with limited at-bats, and the consistent rule applies that a playoff team can’t trust an average prospect with no major league experience to start for them in 2014. In my opinion, the Royals will be looking to add someone outside the organization to start at second in 2014.

4. Sign Omar Infante: Omar Infante was good last year. In fact, he’s been a valuable player for the last four years. He is a plus fielder and a plus at the plate, compiling 3.1 WAR in 2013 according to Fangraphs. The problem with Infante is price. The Yankees have been said to already have a contract offer on the table and it looks like he could demand a contract similar to the one Jhonny Peralta received earlier this offseason. This seems a little out of the Royals price range.

5. Trade for Brandon Phillips: Brandon Phillips generally gets called overrated by SABR folks but I think that his large RBI totals and mainstream media love makes people forget that Phillips is a very good player from an analytical standpoint also, even if he has declined each of the last two years. 2013 was the first year since 2006 that Phillips did not have a WAR over 3.0. Even banged up, he played in 151 games last year, and has hit 18 home runs for the past four seasons, all but guaranteeing we will see the same total in 2014. His offense has dropped significantly from his monster 2011 season, seeing his wOBA drop to .307 and an ever increasing K%.

Phillips has 4 years and 50 million dollars left on his contract. It would probably take some combination of outfielder/ prospect and relief arm to acquire Phillips, with the Reds conceivably eating somewhere between 10-20 million dollars of his contract. I was hypothesizing a Cain for Phillips swap or maybe a Dyson/ Crow for Phillips swap. This would give the Royals Phillips around the same price Infante will get this offseason, but with an extra fourth year on his contract.

The Reds seem to be wavering on whether or not they actually want to trade Phillips, but my guess is that they would have no problem seeing him go for the right price. While this certainly should be a consideration for the Royals, having to deal pieces for an arguably overpaid veteran on the decline could work out very poorly for them moving forward.

6. Sign Mark Ellis: This is one of my two favorite options for the Royals. Mark Ellis had his 5.75 million dollar option declined by the Dodgers, which seems pretty backwards to me since they were willing to shell out $10 million to Brian Wilson, but I guess Cuban defector Alex Guerrero makes Ellis as expendable. Ellis compiled 433 at bats last year and contributed 1.8 WAR. He has been an elite fielder his entire career and while this skill has declined over time, there is no reason to expect his won’t be the case moving forward.

Ellis isn’t a complete loss at the plate, either, as a guy who does a little but not much of everything. He had an OPS of just .674 and a wOBA of .300 last year. But that is not why you are signing Mark Ellis. I think the Royals could easily lure Ellis to KC given the playing time he could receive. I would have no problem giving him a multi-year deal worth 4-5 million per year to obtain him. That would be a huge upgrade over last year for a fraction of the cost it would take to get a slightly better player in Infante or Phillips. The Royals look to agree with me, as it looks like themselves along with the Dodgers and Rays have already expressed interest in the veteran according to Ken Rosenthal.

7. Trade for Nick Franklin: The Mariners are weird. Not only are they weird but they also just signed Robinson Cano to a reported 10 year, 240 million dollar contract, and now have a bit of a middle infield logjam with both Brad Miller and Nick Franklin already on the roster. After years of knowing that Franklin would have to move off of short, they finally did so once he reached the major league level in 2013, and he probably projects as an average at best second baseman defensively. He does have several years of control being that he didn’t get a call to the big leagues until midseason last year.

Franklin’s minor league track record and major league cup of tea suggest that he is going to have problems striking out at the big league level, but he has always shown a very good ability to draw a walk and has also shown a plus hit tool over his minor league career. Franklin did struggle at the major league level, so there is risk here, but there is reason to believe he will improve given what the scouts have said about him, along with the numbers he has put up.

Again, and I can’t stress this enough, the Mariners are weird. It is hard to say what they would want in return for a trade. It does seem like a position of weakness for the Mariners (the bullpen) is a position of strength for the Royals, who have already expressed some interest in moving a guy like Aaron Crow for the right return.

I think the Mariners are more likely to add Franklin as a piece of a bigger trade (David Price?), but if that doesn’t work out the Royals could make a good trade partner for the talented middle infielder. Of course, there are other options out there, but I think these are all realistic options as to what we could see the Royals front office doing.

The market on Mark Ellis seems relatively thin, so unless the Dodgers get scared of their newly acquired Cuban defector playing second every day and offer Ellis an overpay of a contract (which is realistic), I think the Royals could be a prime candidate to acquire him. He wouldn’t be as big of a splash as other free agent/ trade options, but he is a solid major league starter that would allow the Royals to put middle infielders they have in the bench roles they should probably be in.