In The Cross Hairs: Brandon McCarthy

What a year.  What an unbelievably, amazing season  from our Boys in Blue.  Right off the bat, I want to thank the Royals for giving all of us memories we will cherish forever.  Sure we had some bad spells, I can even recall a game we attended in May against the Astros.  Nothing was going our way that series.  For kicks, I said to fellow Royal Revival members Landon and Paden, "Watch this..Chris Carter. Left Field bullpen. Dinger."  Sure enough.  Things weren't going our way, but the boys ignored the doubters and eventually made the World Series for the first time in my young life.  I look forward to talking to my children about this season, but I also look forward to the future and how bright it certainly looks!

Onward we go.  This winter should be a busy one for Dayton Moore and Company.  Three key positions need to be answered in the coming months.  As you know, the Royals announced they had declined Billy Butler's $12.5 million option, which should have been no surprise to anyone.  Billy wants to stay, which is great to hear, but a cheap and mutual agreement between Butler and the Royals will be needed.  While discussing this with fellow R.R. members, we believe a 1 year $6 million deal could do it, or possibly a 2 year $12 million contract.  However, if another suitor comes along with a 2 year $14 million deal on the table, I think Butler takes it.  He's repeatedly said he wants to #BeRoyal, but baseball is a business.  We'll have to wait and see what he decides.  Life without Billy just doesn't seem right.

To the main topic of this post.  Our rotation was revamped two years ago when the Royals traded top prospect Wil Myers for James Shields and Wade Davis.  I think it's safe to say, we won the trade.  Now that 2014 has come to a close, 'Big Game' James is a free agent and is seeking big money in free agency. Will the Royals extend a Qualifying Offer of 1 year $15.3 million to the soon-to-be 33 year old?  Sure.  Will James take the deal?  He will probably test the waters of the market before discussing anything with the Royals.  One place I can see him land is Chicago.  No, not with the White Sox, but reuniting with his former manager Joe Maddon and dawning a Cubs uniform.  The Cubs have a great core of young talent and something they could use again is an ace for their rotation.  I don't want Shields to go away any more than I do Billy, but with the Royals current situation, Butler seems to be the top priority for the time being.

So, let's talk in terms of 2015 without James Shields.  He undeniably helped the Royals get to where they are today, but Dayton and his colleagues need to think of a possible replacement.  One idea could be to sign 31 year old Brandon McCarthy.  There's no question that he wasn't superb in Arizona to begin the 2014 season.  In 18 starts for the D-Backs, he was 3-10 with a 5.01 ERA.  Those numbers helped the Yankees lure him in from Arizona by exchanging Vidal Nuno.  McCarthy stepped up in a big way for his final 14 starts, going 7-5 with a 2.89 ERA with 82 Ks and 13 BBs in 90.1 innings.  This was definitely a nice acquisition considering the injuries to C.C. Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka.

Photo by Bill Kostroun, NYPost.com

2014 was definitely a breath of fresh air for Brandon.  For Arizona and NY combined, he logged 200 innings for the first time in his career, and the most since his 2011 campaign with Oakland when he threw 170 innings.  For most of his career, McCarthy has been inconsistent, except for his two year stint in Oakland, which he enjoyed very much.  In 281.2 innings, he had a combined ERA of 3.29 with 196 Ks and 49 BBs.  He has good command of his fastball, which averaged 93 mph this season, he features a nice cutter that the Yankees encouraged him to through again, which could be part of his success in the pinstripes.  He'll also put some sink on his fastball and throws a curveball around 80 mph and a changeup, but the off-speed pitch was almost non-existent as he threw it only 0.7% of the time.

McCarthy would definitely be a gamble.  He made $10.25 million in 2014, while making a combined $15.5 million the last two seasons.  I've seen possible offers for the righty at around $30 million in total for 3 years.  That's quite a bit for the Royals to take on, considering McCarthy has been anything but consistent throughout his career.  Here's a plus: his groundball and flyball numbers have flipped since the beginning of his career in 2005.  According to FanGraphs, his GB% the past 2 seasons: 48.2% and 52.6%, respectively.  FB% the past 2 seasons: 27.1% and 24.7%.  Compared to Shields, McCarthy would be a cheaper replacement, but is it worth the risk on the unpredictable 31 year old?

Money to Spend on Amateur Talent

Last Wednesday, Baseball America brought us a few different articles breaking down the bonus pools by team for the 2014 amateur draft and international signing period. If you missed it, you can read the article here.

Once again, the Royals rank very highly in terms of total money available to spend on amateur talent for 2014. They rank 18th in baseball in terms of international budget at $2,136,800, but despite not selecting until the second half of the draft they rank 5th in draft bonus pool at $8,602,900. This is a result of the compensation pick that was received for Ervin Santana and the competitive balance pick they received for playing in one of the smallest markets in baseball.

Overall, the Royals rank 8th in total budget for 2014 at $10,739,700. The White Sox rank 3rd, the Twins 6th, the Indians 10th, and the Tigers 25th.

With what is rumored to be a deep draft in 2014, the Royals will have four selections in the first 56 (17, 28, 40, 56). This should again present the Royals with a prime opportunity to add to what figures to be one of the top farm systems in baseball heading into 2015.

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Monday Musings: April 7, 2014

A couple of the quickest things to normalize for hitters are their strikeout and walk rates. We're one week into the season and as a team the Royals have logged 185 plate appearances. It is still early, but there are good indications that the 2014 Royals approach could be much better than the 2013 version.

Last season, Royals hitters walked in just 6.7% of their plate appearances. A mark which ranked 27th in all of baseball. In fact, six of the top nine Royals in walk percentage from a season ago are no longer with the team (George Kottaras, Johnny Giavotella, Emilio Bonifacio, Jamey Carroll, Adam Moore, and Chris Getz). So far this season, the Royals are walking in 9.7% of their plate appearances, which is good for 6th in baseball. Last year's league leader walked 9.4% of the time.

On the strikeout side, after ranking second in the league last season, we knew that the Royals would be even better when they brought in Nori Aoki (struck out just 5.9% of the time in 2013) and Omar Infante (9.2% in 2013). So far this season, the Royals are leading the league in strikeout percentage at just 13.5%. Surprisingly, Aoki is has struck out in 15.8% of his plate appearances, while Infante has 13.6% of the time.

Obviously, we are just one week into the season, but this a team that does an excellent job of keeping the ball in play. The Royals have ranked in the top 3 in strikeout percentage in each of the last four seasons with 2010, being their best mark at just 14.6%. If they can keep the percentage under 14% over the entire season it will be the first time a team has done it since the Twins, Dodgers, and Mariners did it in 2007. If they can keep it at 13.5%, it will rank as the lowest number for a team since the Athletics only struck out 13.1% of the time in 2005.

Of course, if we mention the Royals start in the K% and BB% we should also make a point about the lack of power displayed in the first week of the season. Currently, the Royals rank last in baseball in isolated power at 0.61 and 28th in slugging percentage at .305. Oh and by the way, the Royals are the only team in baseball that has yet to hit a home run in 2014. The Giants already have 11.

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Breaking Down the Royals Schedule

A season ago, the Royals got off to a decent start before allowing the wheels to fall off in the month of May. Somehow the team was able recover and after a sterling 42-27 finish to the season, they closed the year with their best record since the days of Al Gore inventing the internet (I'm not exactly sure when this occurred, but needless to say it was a long time ago.)

On Friday, the Royals will begin their defense of the Cactus League title and once again we will hope that they can get off to a fast start in 2014. Fortunately, for the Royals it appears as though unlike a season ago the schedule makers appear to have done the Royals a favor in the early going. Here's a break down of opponent winning percentage by month:

• April: .471
• May: .458
• June: .513
• July: .519
• August: .507
• September: .520

Also, here is another way to look at the data of teams over .500 versus teams under .500 by month.

• April: 13 vs teams >.500, 14 vs teams <.500
• May: 7 vs teams >.500, 22 vs teams <.500
• June: 16 vs teams >.500, 11 vs teams <.500
• July: 17 vs teams >.500, 8 vs teams <.500
• August: 16 vs teams >.500, 13 vs teams <.500
• Septemeber: 18 vs teams >.500, 7 vs teams <.500

Overall, the winning percentage of Royals 2014 opponents is .497. So it does appear that they have been given a slight break. This is mainly because they play the Twins and White Sox 18 times a piece. 

The Royals will need to get out of the gate in 2014. If they aren't sitting pretty at the end of April and May, their final four months will make it difficult to go on a run like they did a season ago. Unfortunately, when the Royals do clinch their first playoff spot since 1985, they'll have to do so away from Kauffman as the Royals final seven games are on the road. Bummer.

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Aoki in Center

In just 10 days since pitchers and catchers have reported, one common article topic has been the importance of Lorenzo Cain's health. On Sunday, the Kansas City Star's Andy McCullough brought us another one of these articles which you can read here. I don't deny the importance of Lorenzo Cain. If the man can stay healthy and hit just a little he would be a very valuable player for virtually every team in baseball. However, I don't want to talk about Lorenzo Cain's health twice in two weeks. Instead, I want to bring to light this nugget in the article:

"Yost has floated the idea of using right fielder Nori Aoki in center. Aoki played there 18 times during two seasons in Milwaukee."

If you are a reader of this blog, you know how much I like versatility. Determining whether or not Aoki can handle center during spring training is definitely advantageous for the Royals in 2014. But I also know that the Royals currently are planning to carry both Justin Maxwell and Danny Valencia, which would mean no middle infielder on the roster. Personally, I find it unlikely that the Royals will be able to make it long without a back up middle infielder and so I wonder if this Aoki in center talk is laying the groundwork for a Dyson versus middle infielder roster battle.

Let's face it, if Aoki logs time in center this Spring and looks good it definitely decreases the importance of Jarrod Dyson. If Yost finishes camp and is confident in Aoki's ability it wouldn't shock me at all to see both Valencia and Maxwell on the roster in addition to a utility man.

It would be a shame for the Royals to lose Dyson in such a way. His speed is game changing and as a back up there is definitely value in him pinch running late in close games. Also, where would the Royals be left when Lorenzo Cain gets injured? At that point, they'd have to bring up Carlos Peguero or Jimmy Paredes to be the back up outfielder and you have no one who can back up Aoki in center.

I hope the Royals realize that Dyson is too valuable of a commodity to simply move at the end of spring training. In fact, one could argue that given the importance of each game, his pinch running ability will be more important in 2014 than it has ever been. I've always been a Dyson fan, so I hope that I'm over analyzing here. At the same time, I do think the Royals need to find a way to fit a back up middle infielder on to the roster.

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Control the Inner Half

When it comes to the Royals future, there aren't many players who could tip the scales one way or another more than Mike Moustakas. Watching him blast home runs all over Arvest Ballpark in 2010, was an experience I'll never forget, but I'd love to add some memories of him doing the same in Kauffman Stadium.

On Thursday, Fox Sports Kansas City' Jeffrey Flanagan brought us this article on how the young Royals hitter is approaching the 2014 season. Here's what Moustakas had to say regarding his off-season work in Winter Ball when he hit .288/.360/.515 in 66 at bats with Cardenales de Lara:

"We worked on driving the ball the other way, and doing damage that way. If pitchers came in, I was still able to get my hands in and pull it. But that's how I got into a funk last year - I tried to pull everything. Pedro just told me (pulling every pitch) is not going to work."

 I worry that a big part of the reason Moustakas hasn't developed into the hitter that he could be is the result of poor development by the Royals front office. Having three different hitting coaches over a two year period has done no favors for the Royals former 1st round pick.

Moustakas's top strength is his ability to turn on anything on the inside part of the plate. He was lauded coming up for his incredible bat speed. But what did the Royals do? They tried to turn him into a guy that would spray line drives all over the field. Maybe they felt he needed to make this adjustment to excel at the Major League level, but they sure didn't push that too much to Moustakas when he was in the minors.

This is not to say that Moustakas was a dead pull guy in the Minor Leagues either. On the contrary what I was most impressed with when watching him in the Texas League was his ability to hit the ball with authority to all fields. One Royals executive even told me that there are regularly a few guys with legitimate power at the Double-A level, but sometimes years can go by without guys with the refined power that Moustakas displayed.

Following, Moustakas's disappointing 2012 campaign, the Royals made a hitting coach change. Then came in a couple of hitting coaches who wanted to lead the league in fewest home runs. Once again they failed to play to the California high school career home run record holder's strengths. Somewhere along the way even an uncle chimed in about how far Moustakas had deviated from the approach that once made him as fearsome as any hitter in the minor leagues.

I hope Moustakas can find the balanced approach that he once had. He needs to be able to shorten his stroke with two strikes and stop rolling over on outside pitches and hitting pop ups a mile into the air. But most importantly, Moustakas needs to command the inner half of the plate and when pitchers try to test him inside he needs to punish them just like he did for the Naturals in 2010.

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"Best in the American League"

On Wednesday, the Kansas City Star's Andy McCullough sat down with Omar Infante and it didn't take long for the conversation to steer towards the defense of Alcides Escobar, who Infante called "the best in the American League."

Infante is dead on regarding the Royals shortstop. In 2013, Escobar ranked second in all of baseball in UZR for a shortstop. This comes just two years after ranking fourth in 2011. Unfortunately, sandwiched in between those two seasons was 2012, when the Venezuelan ranked 20th out of 21 short stops in UZR (only ahead of Derek Jeter).

My guess is that there were some positioning issues with Mike Moustakas and Escobar in 2012, which results in Mike Moustakas posting an enormous UZR the year before last. This is why I personally don't think Moustakas took a step back defensively last year anymore than Escobar rebounded from 2012. The more important issue is that while the Royals left side is stout defensively, they both need to hit in order to continue to hold down Major League jobs.

Last season, the Royals shortstop posting a wRC+ of 49. This mark was the lowest produced by a qualifying player since 2010 when Cesar Izturis hit .230/.277/.268 with the Orioles in 150 games.

Of course, former Orioles manager Dave Trembley had the sense to bat this kind of hitter at the bottom of the order and Izturis only appeared in three games hitting either 1 or 2. Ned Yost on the other hand hit Escobar in the leadoff and two spot 74 times in 2014. When you talk about lineup optimization, there might not have been a more egregious decision made repeatedly in 2014, than Yost hitting Escobar 2nd.

Fortunately for the Royals the top of the lineup should be out of Escobar's hands in 2014. This should lessen the blow if Escobar is as atrocious offensively as he was a season ago. At the same time, it would be a nice boost to the offense if somehow Escobar could get back to the .293/.331/.390 line that he posted in 2012.

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David Glass's Long Term Commitment

Earlier this week, Dick Kaegel of MLB.com sat down to talk with Royals owner David Glass. You can read the entire interview here, but I want to bring you Glass's closing comment when asked if his ownership would go far into the future.

"Quite possibly, quite possibly. I think if for some reason there was a better ownership group that we felt like would be better for Kansas City than us and would agree to contractually keep the team here in Kansas City for a long time, then we'd have to consider that I think. But right now, I would say yes."

Wow! Sounds like that guy is giddy with excitement about the future of the organization and his future with it. Really what it sounds like is a guy who is ready to be done with the whole baseball team ownership thing. Seriously, how many owners in baseball would answer this question in such a way.

The question wasn't even asking what it would take to sell the team, yet that's the direction Glass chose to take it. How easy would it have been for Glass to simply say "we love Kansas City and right now I can't see a scenario that would result in a change in ownership." Instead, Glass talked about what it would take for him to move the team, almost as if he was laying the groundwork.

Listen I don't think Glass was attempting to publicly declare the team available, but answers this question in such a way definitely doesn't paint the image of an owner in love with the organization. David Glass is a savvy businessman and I have no doubt that he has learned to choose his words carefully in interviews. I find it very interesting that he answered this question in such a way.

I don't think Glass has been the villain in the Dayton Moore era as he was during Allard Baird's time at the helm. However, I don't think that winning is his number one priority either. He does himself no favors when he answers a question in this manner, but it is good to see that before he sells the team the buyer would have to insure a long-term commitment to Kansas City. I don't think I'd be the only one disappointed if the Royals became the toy of another billionaire owner, so long as he plays with that toy in Cow Town.

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Looking to Future Rotations

With each passing day that Ervin Santana remains a free agent, more and more Royals fans' confidence grows that Santana could return to Kansas City. While I hate to throw water on to these dreams, I am afraid that I have to.

Santana will not be coming back to Kansas City.

The Royals are too deep into their off-season plans and it is woefully apparent that whether or not it is true, the team is operating with the opinion that $90 million is the break even point. The rotation has four out of five spots left and multiple candidates for the fifth spot that are deserving of a chance with the big league club.

Here's a quick snapshot of the next few years rotations:

2014

1. James Shields
2. Jeremy Guthrie
3. Jason Vargas
4. Bruce Chen
5. TBD

2015

1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. Jason Vargas
3. TBD
4. TBD
5. TBD

2016 & 2017

1. Jason Vargas
2. TBD
3. TBD
4. TBD
5. TBD

Obviously, it is the Royals hope that they can fill their rotation with homegrown talent starting next season. Just a month or so ago, J.J. Picollo even stated that he expects Danny Duffy, Yordano Ventura, Kyle Zimmer, and Sean Manaea all to be ready to hold down big league spots. Also, on the horizon is Jason Adam and Miguel Almonte. 

It does appear that the Royals will have the arms to fill out a couple of spots in their big league rotation, but are they going to be able to fill three spots as soon as next season? 

What if this season Duffy totally loses control and Kyle Zimmer blows out his elbow? Where will that leave the Royals next off-season as they attempt to fill out their rotation. Would it be more economical to sign Santana now when conceivably his price has been diminished or would it be better to jump the market and overpay next off-season for another Vargas/Guthrie type. 

If the Royals were to sign Santana, he could slot into the rotation instead of Bruce Chen for 2014. With the addition of Santana, Chen could slide into a swing man role and the Royals could still have a competition for the final rotation spot. Next season, they'd ideally have established one or two of the Duffy, Ventura, Zimmer bunch and would be able to fill out a rotation with some confidence. 

Given the Royals history of starting pitcher development, it seems incredibly ballsy to expect the the current crop of prospects can fill three spots in next years rotation. This indicates to me that next off-season the Royals will once again have to dip their toes into the starting pitching market of free agency. So I leave you with a final question: would it be better to go over the salary threshold this year to get Santana at below market value, or would it be better to wait and overpay next off-season? 

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40 Home Run Tree

The Royals pulled off quite the steal the other day when they reached up to the 40 home run a season tree and pulled off a big piece of Carlos Peguero. Fox Sports' Jeffrey Flanagan was able to sit down with one Royals scout who isn't afraid to veer into the hyperbole. (You can read the full article here.)

"He has the power to be a 40-home guy, maybe more. He just has never had the chance to show it. He's also been through too many hitting coaches and everyone has tried to change him. Some team will let him be himself and be rewarded with a special talent."

The author of the article, doesn't just stop at the 40 home run a year upside, just take a look at the title of the article "Royals Outfielder Carlos Peguero, the next Jose Bautisita? Could be." Wow, there really is no time like Spring Training. Let's take a second to entertain these Peguero - Bautista comparisons.

Here's a look at Peguero's numbers heading into his age 27 season:

• Minors: 3133 plate appearances, .274/.334/.504
• Majors: 219 plate appearances, .195/.242/.380 worth -.05 bWAR

And Baustista entering his age 27 season:

• Minors: 1711 plate appearances, .285/.376/.470
• Majors: 120 plate appearances, .240/.329/.395 worth -3 bWAR

On the surface the primary difference between the two players is that Bautista logged a much higher percentage of his plate appearances at the Major League level than did Peguero. Of course, there is one other enormous difference that we don't see in the numbers above. Bautista during his time in the minors struck out 19.8% of the time and walked 11.5%, while Peguero has struck out in a whopping 30.9% of his at bats, and walked in just 7.6% of those. 

During Peguero's brief Major League career those numbers have been even worse and he has struck out in 38.4% of his plate appearances and walked in just 4.6% of them. In fact, of players with at least 200 plate appearances over the last three seasons, Carlos Peguero holds the third worst K%. Oh, I guess I should mention that the top two are pitchers. In that same time frame, Peguero's BB% ranks 507th among the 564 qualifying players. 

It's great that the Royals are excited about a waiver claim, but let's not get crazy and make this guy out to be something that he is not. He has power. I don't deny that but even in his best Minor League season he only hit 31 home runs. Peguero's thorn has always been and will always be his awful strikeout and walk rate stats. Best case for him is that he somehow can improve his walk rate a little and become a poor man's Chris Carter, but even that would be a major victory on a waiver claim.

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Perez and His Awesome Contract

In case you missed it, on Sunday the Kansas City Star's Andy McCullough brought us this article on the importance of a healthy Salvador Perez. There is no doubt that Salvy is one of the most important pieces to this Royals team if not the most important. We are entering Year 8 of the Process and Perez represents the crown jewel of the scouting and development system that Dayton Moore has constructed.

In just 253 professional games, Perez has accumulated 7.5 fWAR, which is easily more than any other hitter developed during the Dayton Moore regime. Perez has compiled this mark at quite the discount for Kansas City. In a time when amateur players are signing for millions of dollars, Perez signed for just $65,000.

Obviously, for Perez to develop into any sort of Major League contributor he would have proved to be an excellent investment, but Dayton Moore swooped in and signed him to a long term deal after just 39 professional games. The deal guaranteed Perez $7 million over the first five years of the deal and included three team options would could take the value all the way up to $21.75.

The deal was a masterstroke by Moore and will most likely be remembered as the best move of his tenure. The contract not only guaranteed a relatively small amount of money*, but also bought the Royals two additional years of team control. Making the deal even better has been the fact that the final three years of the contract are team options.

*Consider this, Eric Hosmer's signing bonus was $6 million. the Royals promised Perez $7 million and were able to secure 8 seasons of cost control for the catcher.

There was a stretch when Dayton Moore did a nice job of locking up several guys. Billy Butler signed a four year deal with a team option, when he was reaching arbitration for the first time. Alcides Escobar signed a four year deal with two team options when he was reaching arbitration. Alex Gordon signed a four year deal with an option when he was just a season from Free Agency.

Entering this offseason I was hopeful that the Royals could do the same for some of their current assets. I also knew that there weren't a ton of logical fits to be extension. Eric Hosmer would be a fantastic player to lock up long term, but he is a Boras client that long dreamed of playing for the Yankees. Danny Duffy, hasn't shown enough control/poise/durability to warrant a guaranteed rotation spot let along a long term contract. Mike Moustakas hit like crap last season. Lorenzo Cain is too injury prone for an extension. This only leaves a few options.

James Shields would have been awesome to extend, but given the current pitching market and the fact that he is now just a year from free agency, it seems that the Royals have missed their chance (if it ever existed). It also isn't a given that a Shields extension would even be worth it.

Greg Holland has been discussed at length on this blog over the past week. He's a guy who is probably the best best to be extended prior to 2014. Of course, in terms of players extended he's a guy that probably wouldn't create a ton of excitement. At the same time if the Royals can find value in a Greg Holland extension then they should absolutely jump at the opportunity.

The final player who I will suggest is Norichika Aoki. If you've frequented this blog over the last couple of months you know how big of an Aoki fan that I am. I think he is going to be an excellent fit for Kauffman Stadium and I expect him to be wroth 2.5 WAR or more in 2014. Aoki is only signed through this season, but I would be curious as to what he might ask for in the way of an extension.

The Royals have done a nice job in putting talent together in Kansas City. Hopefully, the Royals can keep this group together long enough to put the pieces in place around them to win big. At the very least we know that we'll have a top notch catcher putting on the mask for us day in and day out for the next six seasons.

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Ned Yost; Mediocre Manager

On Sunday, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe brought us his ranking of Major League Baseball's managers. You can view the full article here. Here's what he had to say regarding the Royals commander and chief, whom he ranked as the 14th best skipper in the game.

"Management stuck with him through the tough times and Yost, with a ton of experience, is a stabilizing influence in the clubhouse. the Royals should be good for a while, and Yost is a solid choice to lead them."

For those of you that follow me on Twitter, you know that I am not a fan of Yost. I think tactically he is terrible. Of course, I also can't deny that last season's surge was impressive considering the depths from which the team had to climb from. I do think Yost deserves a great deal of credit  for preventing a young team from cashing it in after the wheels fell off in May. At the same time, the argument could also be made that he allowed a talented team's skid to snowball far too long early in the season.

Yost ranking 14th among active managers is as much of an indictment on the state of baseball management then it is on Cafardo's ranking. When you consider how far analytics have come in the front office, one has to wonder how long it will be before it has achieved widespread utilization in the clubhouse. Football coaches utilize cheat sheets to determine whether or not to kick the extra point, how long before managers are holding a run expectancy or a bullpen leverage cheat sheets?

Most of us feel as though there is no manager in the league worst than Ned Yost. Most of us also don't subject ourselves to watching the poor management decisions that run rampant throughout professional baseball on a given night. If Cafardo is right and Ned Yost really is middle of the road, think about the difference that is being made by the good managers.

Last season Terry Francona helped lead the Indians to a 92 win season, while his Royals counterpart guided the team to 86 wins. What would the records of the Indians and Royals have been if the managers swapped dugouts? Would the Royals have won 92, while the Indians just 86? Unfortunately, we'll never know the answer to this question.

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Danny Duffy's 2014 Role

Over the past couple of seasons that aren't many Royals that have tantalized Royals fans as much as former third round pick Danny Duffy. Heading into 2014, there are few in the organization that could prove to be a bigger difference maker than the lefty. According to the Kansas City Star's Pete McCullough, the Royals are finally ready to pull the reins off their young hurler. Here's what Duffy had to say on the subject:

"I feel like I'm definitely ready. Judging by my bullpen sessions out here. I've really been doing well."

The Royals went safe in their off-season acquisitions from the rotation and it is mainly because of the upside that they see in Duffy, Yordano Ventura, and Kyle Zimmer. Thus far in Duffy's career he has been worth nearly 2 fWAR, and holds a 4.75 ERA, these numbers don't exactly breed a ton of confidence, especially when you notice the 4.75 walk rate. But if you've watched Danny Duffy over the past couple of seasons, the potential is undeniable.

What Duffy needs to do is to trust his outstanding stuff. Even more than that Duffy needs to trust his defense. As far as the stuff is concerned, Duffy is fantastic. He can dial up the fastball to the mid 90s and he has shown the ability to snap off a nasty curveball. We also know that the Royals defense is fantastic. Based off these things, one would think that a breakout is right around the corner.

Duffy tends to be way to fine with his pitches. He'll often jump ahead in the count only to forfeit the advantage after he nibbles on the outside corner. Strikeouts are definitely a good thing, but Duffy needs to accept that he can't strike out every hitter. If Duffy can go on to the attack even after getting ahead in the count, he'll be much better off. If he can do this he can go deeper into games and eat more innings.

After the Bruce Chen signing, it appears that there is only one rotation spot up for grabs. There has even been some discussion that if Duffy loses out on the battle for this last spot that he could surface in the Royals bullpen. As I have said in regards to Yordano Ventura, I hope that this isn't the case.

While Duffy could learn some aggressiveness in the bullpen, I'd rather Duffy continue to log innings as a starter in Omaha. More importantly than learning how to air it out, Duffy needs to learn how to go deep into games. This is a characteristic that he won't learn in the bullpen.

Dayton Moore says that he envisions Duffy as a part of the 2015 rotation. Duffy, who is under team control for four more seasons has much more value in this capacity. It would be an enormous shame for a starter so close to contributing at the Major League level to be moved to the bullpen, unless it is with eyes toward moving him back to the rotation in the future.

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Aaron Crow's Place on the Bullpen Totem Pole

This offseason, it seemed obvious that the Royals would attempt to deal from their bullpen depth to acquire some other pieces. Yet in the end the only reliever moved wound up being left hander Will Smith in exchange for Milwaukee outfielder Norichika Aoki. Throughout the offseason I considered who could be the odd man out in the bullpen tree. The most desirable arm to move for Kansas City likely was Wade Davis, but after Davis I wondered if former Missouri Tiger Aaron Crow might offer the best blend of appeal for other teams and lack of a role on the current roster.

Crow, who earned an All-Star game appearance in 2011, has been a very solid option for Kansas City for the last three seasons posting a 3.19 ERA. Since Crow's All-Star appearance, his rate stats have quietly eroded a bit. During that same time period, Crow has seen his role shrunk as well. On Thursday, Fox Sports' Jeffrey Flanagan asked Crow about his diminished role and here is what Crow had to say:

"It's not really all that important (what inning you pitch) at the end of the day. It doesn't matter if you pitch the sixth inning or the eighth inning, just as long as the team is doing well. I don't care if you come in and face just one batter - just as long as you're helping the team win."

If you want to read the full article, you can check it out here.

There is a general thought process among Royals fans that Aaron Crow is an excellent reliever. However, last season he was basically replacement level. According to Fangraphs he was actually worth -0.1 WAR and according to Baseball-Reference he was worth just 0.3 WAR. Over his career he's been worth just 1.3 fWAR and 2.7 bWAR over three seasons. Despite all this, he has already earned $4.68 million in salary from the Royals and will be paid $1.475 million in 2014.

Crow has excellent stuff. His whippy arm action plays well in a relief role and his mid-90s fastball and slider make for some strikeouts where the hitter just looks silly. When you couple this with his pedigree, plus his three seasons of control he would be a valuable asset for a lot of teams. For the Royals though, he is probably the 5th or 6th best reliever on the staff. Given all this I would maintain that he is likely more valuable as a trade piece than as a member of the Royals bullpen.

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Wildcard Wade Wants to Start

After the signing of Bruce Chen, I don't think I was alone in assuming that the final rotation spot would come down to either Yordano Ventura or Danny Duffy. Of course, I knew that a few other names would be thrown out as candidates: Brad Penny, Chris Dwyer, Luke Hochevar, Wade Davis, and Kyle Zimmer. Despite most of us believing that Hochevar and Davis will figure in as bullpen components, both are making buzz about their focus on reclaiming roles in the rotation. On Friday, Fox Sports writer Jeffrey Flanagan brought us some quotes from Davis on the subject. 

"I'm definitely going in to start. I hope I get the opportunity to pitch and help this team win a lot of ballgames. I'm ready, probably more so than I ever have been."

When Wade Davis was acquired in conjunction with James Shields last winter, many pointed to Davis as the wild card of the deal. Defendants of the trade also were quick to cite Wildcard Wade's contract status when the Shields portion of the deal was criticized due to his two years of control. Unlike Shields, Davis came with two guaranteed seasons, plus three team options for 2015-17.

The problem with these options is that they really are only economically viable if Davis is logging his innings as a member of the team's rotation. It is likely for this reason that the Royals were so patient with Davis as a starter in 2013. Despite posting a 5.67 ERA as a starter, Davis was somehow able to hold down a rotation spot for 24 starts, and was not moved to relief duty until September.

There is a very slight possibility that Davis wasn't as bad in 2013, as his numbers would indicate. Afterall, his FIP was just 4.18, which compares quite favorably to his 5.32 ERA. This discrepancy largely stems from his .361 BABIP against. However, when plugging in his batted ball frequencies to an expected BABIP calculator, you'll find that the number isn't that much different than the BABIP that was actually posted against him. This is mainly due to opponents posting a 27.5% LD% against the former Rays farmhand. Fangraphs' tERA, which estimates ERA with batted ball data, says that his ERA should have been 5.42.

According to Troy Renck, beat writer for the Denver Post, the Royals and Rockies were discussing a deal that would have sent Wade Davis to Colorado in exchange for outfielder Dexter Fowler. If this is true then the Royals probably were very open to moving Davis throughout the offseason. Unfortunately, they were unable to find a match for a trade. Since it is hard to imagine the Royals contending and going through the Wade Davis starter experience again, it is unlikely that reliever Wade Davis will justify a $7 million option for 2015.

When the Royals acquired Wildcard Wade they likely hoped that they were acquiring a solid mid rotation starter for the next five seasons. If Davis could have been this it would have greatly helped to justify the Wil Myers trade. Regrettably, the former 3rd round pick has failed to transition into a useful rotation piece and as a result a year from now, the Royals will likely have only one compensation draft pick to show for their blue chip prospect.

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Lorenzo Cain's Upside

On Thursday, the Kansas City Star's Pete Grathoff caught up with Royals injury prone center field Lorenzo Cain. During the interview Grathoff asked Cain about his defensive efforts and how important it is that he stays healthy this season. You can read the whole article here and here's what Cain had to say about his defense:

"I made a lot of plays, got to a lot of balls, but that's what I work hard on in practice each and every day to perfect my craft. I feel like I did a great job of it last year, but like I said, that was last year. I've got to go out there and try and improve on last year."

 There weren't many things more enjoyable when watching the 2013 Royals than the night after night highlight reel display that was put on by #6. You know a guy's defense is top notch when he can compile 2.8 fWAR despite an OPS+ of 80. Unfortunately, the guy has been unable to stay healthy throughout a full season.

Thanks to Cain's defensive prowess, there's a good bet that he is going to net positive value for the Royals while healthy. Of course, if Cain could get back to even 2012 offensive form, he could be worth 3.5 to 4.5 fWAR for Kansas City. This would make him possibly the most valuable player on the team. Obviously, for the Royals to make the next step, they'll need at least a couple of players to post 4+ win seasons. I don't think many would predict Cain to be one of those guys, but we are simply talking about him combining his 2012 offense with his 2013 defense.

I've heard a few times during Royals broadcasts comparisons between Cain and former Twins centerfielder Torii Hunter. The comparisons often cite both as being late bloomers whose offense took time to develop, while their defense was always fantastic.

Hunter spent 7 seasons in the minors and didn't fully stick at the Major League level until he was a 24 year-old. However, at age 25, Hunter played in 148 games and posted a 102 OPS+. Cain also spent 7 seasons in the Minors, but unlike Hunter whose journey began as a 17 year old, Cain's Minor League career started when he was 19. This of course, puts Cain a couple years behind Hunter on the developmental curve.

Hunter's and Cain's first two full seasons were eerily similar. In Hunter's first 241 games he hit .266/.313/.391, while Cain in his first 225 games hit .266/.318/.380. However, it must be noted that Hunter's first 241 games came while he was 21-24 years old. Cain on the other hand was 24-27 during his first 225 games. By the time Hunter hit the age of 27, he had raised his career line to .266/.316/.456 and had posted three straight seasons of 3.5 bWAR or greater.

I'm not saying that Lorenzo Cain can't improve with the bat, because I think he can and he will in 2014. However, I don't see him turning in Torii Hunter any time soon. Hopefully for the Royals, Cain can simply get back to the guy he was offensively in 2012. But more importantly, hopefully he can stay on the field this season.

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He Can Play Any Position He Wants

In an article for Fox Sports on Wednesday, Jeffrey Flanagan brought us this article regarding the possibility of Sal Perez playing some first base during the 2014 season. Of course, it only took until the second paragraph for a quote by our fearless leader to venture off into hyperbole:

"Sal really could, if he wanted to, play any position. He has that ability." - Dayton Moore

 This actually explains a lot. For instance, now we understand why the Royals DFA-ed Emilio Bonifacio. Why keep him on the bench when you have super-sub Salvy ready to make a diving catch in center, or turn a double play? This would also explain why we don't feel the need to carry a back up middle infielder at the beginning of the season. We've got Salvy ready to play short of Alcides Escobar goes down!

Of course, not too much farther into the article mohawk yielding Mike Moustakas dampens our hopes:

"I wouldn't say he'd be winning a Gold Glove (at first base) or anything. It's amazing. For as good of a defensive catcher as he is and how amazing he can catch pop-ups and make plays out there, he can't catch a pop-up to save his life at first base. It's crazy."

But wait! Should we really take Moustakas at his word? I mean Dayton Moore has zero incentive to lie to the fanbase, but Moustakas? What do you think is going to happen when he is posting a negative batting average in May and the Royals faithful get wind that Perez can play anywhere including the hot corner! Moustakas is clearly has some self interest involved here.

Seriously, any additional versatility is always welcomed. Perez is an awesome player and there is no sweeter contract in baseball than his. If giving Perez an occasional start at first base helps keep him healthy throughout the contract and the season, then by all means give him some starts at first base. Let's just not go overboard and pull Eric Hosmer or Billy Butler's bat out of the lineup 20 times this season just for the hell of it.

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Plugging the Holes

Last week Fangraphs' Brad Johnson took a moment to analyze the Royals infield. After raving about Eric Hosmer for a paragraph, Johnson then got around to write this regarding new Royals second baseman Omar Infante. You can read the full article here.

"Infante will finally resolve the Royals second base black hole. He brings batting average to the fantasy dinner along with the odd counting stat. The quality of his season is largely determined by his BABIP."

I don't need to remind Royals fans about how dreadful the Royals' second base situation was last season, but I'm going to do it anyway. Last season Chris Getz, Miguel Tejada, Johnny Giavotella, and Elliot Johnson each received time at second and collectively that group combined for 1.2 Wins Above Replacement and hit .240/.296/.306. Yikes.

Last season for Detroit, Infante hit .318/.345/.450 and recorded 3.1 fWAR. To say that he will be an upgrade for the Royals is an understatement. There was quite a bit of criticism when the Royals guaranteed Infante $30.25 million over 4 years, but the Royals also deserve some credit for bringing in the second best option available on the free agent market to fill their gaping hole. 

The Royals had a few pretty big holes in the lineup heading into the offseason. At third base and short they are hoping for rebouds from Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar. They addressed right field when they acquired Norichika Aoki. With the addition of Infante, the Royals plugged the final hole in the offense. Now it is time to keep our fingers crossed that Kansas City receives what they paid for.

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The Futures of Colon and Giavotella

On Tuesday, Fox Sports' Jeffrey Flanagan brought us this article on the futures of Johnny Giavotella and Christian Colon. Obviously, with the signing of Omar Infante, both players Royal future have become a bit hazy. It would seem that barring anything unforeseen neither may soon get the opportunity to Be Royal.

Giavotella has always been a personal favorite of mine. I saw him first hand in about 60 games a few years ago for the Naturals, when the team would win Team of the Year honors from Baseball America. He was a beast. His range was always limited, but all season long he shot lasers all over Arvest Ballpark and occasionally provided fans with highlight reel plays.

Unfortunately, even I have jumped off the former 2nd round pick's bandwagon. In three separate big league stints he has hit a collective .240/.278/.335 over 113 games. Sure, the argument can be made that he has never truly been given a shot, but I would counter that even in those stints he has completely failed to capitalize.

At this point, even when I squint I can't imagine a future with the Royals for Giavotella and I have a hard time imagining that he offers any value in the way of a trade. the Royals could either do Giavotella a favor and pawn him off for next to nothing or they could stash him in AAA as a reserve until he runs out of options. Giavotella's case isn't enhanced by his lack of versatility. If you can hit enough to be a second baseman, you aren't hitting enough to be a left fielder.

As for Colon, I still think there is some potential there. Unlike Giavotella, Colon can play both middle infield spots. I'm hopeful that the Royals even get him some time at third and maybe even left in 2014. If the Royals can do this Colon could develop into a top notch reserve type of player. I think it is time for the Royals to develop Colon for what his true ceiling is as opposed to the ceiling they thought they had when they drafted him.

I've been hesitant to join the Colon fan club, because quite frankly he has yet to show enough ability at the plate. I'm not going to start a riot because the Royals aren't giving a career .273 Minor League hitter a chance at the big league level. At the same time, I wouldn't be shocked at all to see him carry last season's momentum when he hit .319 over the final two months of the season into 2014.

Hopefully, Colon can return to Omaha in 2014 and mash. The Royals would then have a good problem on their hands. It would give the Royals that quality depth piece should Mike Moustakas, Infante, or Alcides Escobar fall to injury. Also, if Moustakas continues to collapse, Infante could slide to third with Colon taking second. If nothing else I expect to see the Royals former first round pick surface in Kansas City as a utility man by season's end. The Royals might try to get through a month or so without a back up middle infielder, but they won't make it through 162 games without one.

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2014 Michael Wacha

If you missed Saturday's article from Andy McCullough titled "Royals hope Kyle Zimmer will be part of their pitching picture in playoffs", do yourself a favor and read it here. Also, check out this quote from Royals Assistant General Manager J.J. Picollo regarding how Kyle Zimmer figures into the 2014 Royals.

"The goal would be to have him peaking in the minor leagues in late May, June, going into July and then really ramping it up and taking the handcuffs off him, hopefully in a playoff run, and he pitches in September and hopefully October."

 Last season Michael Wacha made waves across Major League Baseball when in 64.2 innings he dominated big league hitters to the tune of a 2.78 ERA. This included a stretch of five starts in September when he limited opposing hitters to a .198/.264/.261 line and posted a 1.72 ERA. Wacha carried this momentum right on into the playoffs and allowed just 1 run in 21 innings.

Obviously, Wacha represents the dream scenario for Kyle Zimmer in 2014. In fact, during the regular season Wacha pitched exactly 150 innings, coincidentally that is the same number that the Royals have thrown out for Zimmer's mark this season. The way in which the Cardinals managed Wacha's count was by moving him to the bullpen throughout August, as well as allowing him just two starts between June 18 and July 24.

It will be interesting to see the Royals approach on this. If they truly believe that Zimmer will play as big of role down the stretch as they indicate, then they will likely start Zimmer slow. I can't see the Royals being able to utilize the bullpen to limit Zimmer's innings like the Cardinals did. Of course, I''m just sitting in my mother's basement eating cheetos, so what do I know?