David Glass's Long Term Commitment

Earlier this week, Dick Kaegel of MLB.com sat down to talk with Royals owner David Glass. You can read the entire interview here, but I want to bring you Glass's closing comment when asked if his ownership would go far into the future.

"Quite possibly, quite possibly. I think if for some reason there was a better ownership group that we felt like would be better for Kansas City than us and would agree to contractually keep the team here in Kansas City for a long time, then we'd have to consider that I think. But right now, I would say yes."

Wow! Sounds like that guy is giddy with excitement about the future of the organization and his future with it. Really what it sounds like is a guy who is ready to be done with the whole baseball team ownership thing. Seriously, how many owners in baseball would answer this question in such a way.

The question wasn't even asking what it would take to sell the team, yet that's the direction Glass chose to take it. How easy would it have been for Glass to simply say "we love Kansas City and right now I can't see a scenario that would result in a change in ownership." Instead, Glass talked about what it would take for him to move the team, almost as if he was laying the groundwork.

Listen I don't think Glass was attempting to publicly declare the team available, but answers this question in such a way definitely doesn't paint the image of an owner in love with the organization. David Glass is a savvy businessman and I have no doubt that he has learned to choose his words carefully in interviews. I find it very interesting that he answered this question in such a way.

I don't think Glass has been the villain in the Dayton Moore era as he was during Allard Baird's time at the helm. However, I don't think that winning is his number one priority either. He does himself no favors when he answers a question in this manner, but it is good to see that before he sells the team the buyer would have to insure a long-term commitment to Kansas City. I don't think I'd be the only one disappointed if the Royals became the toy of another billionaire owner, so long as he plays with that toy in Cow Town.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

Confirmed: Will Smith for Norichika Aoki

Wow! Have the last 12 hours been exciting for us at Royal Revival. First off, what an excellent job by our blog team to get the Will Smith for Norichika Aoki information out there. As we have said before: at this blog we have a very humble amount of connections throughout the baseball industry. Our goal has never been to be an entity that "breaks" stories.

On numerous occasions in the past we have received information and often we are forced to drop subtle hints into our posts as opposed to blasting the information out on Twitter. We have also had an internal debate about we should even take the chance of sending out information when we don't have the means to confirm it with secondary sources. Ultimately, last night our source was confident enough to give us the courage to go ahead and share the information blatantly with the Royals Twitterverse.

Even when we dispersed the information we were careful in our wording. The last thing we wanted was to come off to the Royals Twitterverse as another Scott Swaim. We were then relieved this morning to see that the source was correct in regards to the trade. Following the moment of relief we were then elated to realize that we had just broken a legitimate Major Leaguer for Major Leaguer trade. We have been even more overwhelmed by the congratulatory response that we have received by the fantastic Royals blogosphere.

Don't expect this to become a regular occurrence for us. In our 4+ years as a blog, on one hand you can count the number of moves we have actually broken (a couple of draft picks, a trade and an international signing). Most of what we hear is just internal opinions of players and rumors. Again we normally are careful about the way we sprinkle this information into our posts when we have it.

Now let's get to the deal.

Personally, I think this move makes sense for Kansas City. Between this move and the Dexter Fowler rumors it seems obviously clear that one of the Royals offseason strategies was to deal from their relief corps in an attempt to bring in a right fielder. They have now succeeded in this endeavor.

Before I analyze the implications of this specific trade, I first would like to trace its lineage.

1. Norichika Aoki acquired for Will Smith. 
2. Will Smith acquired with Sean O'Sullivan for Alberto Callaspo
3. Alberto Callaspo acquired for Billy Buckner
4. Billy Buckner drafted in the 2nd Round of the 2004 Amateur Draft

Not too shabby. Thanks to some quality trades, the Royals are still managing to return value for a second round pick that was made nearly a decade ago. So far that pick has netted the Royals 4.2 fWAR with the opportunity to keep on giving. 

As for Aoki, he's an excellent fit for the Royals moving forward. One of my fears entering the offseason was that the Royals would allow history to repeat itself. In an attempt to find a power bat, they would sacrifice defense and on base percentage for home runs and rbi's (Mike Jacobs, cough). Dreams of Mark Trumbo in a Royals uniform danced through my head.

I even wondered if the Royals best course of action might be to go into 2014 with David Lough manning right. After all, in just 96 games he managed to post 2.4 fWAR. Unfortunately, I don't think the Royals trust Lough to post a similar mark in 2014. I would agree.

Lough is extremely BABIP dependent as an offensive player. In 2013, he walked 3% of the time and struck out 15.5% of the time. Both of these marks compare very unfavorably to Aoki who walked at an 8.2% clip and struck out at 5.9%, Based off these numbers I think there is a pretty safe bet that Aoki's offense will be better moving forward despite the difference in age. 

Lough's true value in 2013 stemmed from his stellar defense in right field. The issue is that we aren't dealing with an enormous sample size. Yes, Lough is a strong defender, but is he one of the best in baseball? I don't know that he is. Meanwhile, according to the Fielding Bible Aoki was the fifth most valuable defensive right fielder in baseball a season ago.

I don't know that Aoki provides the Royals with a huge upgrade from Lough's 2013 version. The problem simply was that it would have been very risky for the Royals to count on getting Lough's 2013 version again in 2014. Next season, Aoki will bring the consistency of a strong glove and strong on base percentage to the Royals. For a team with multiple wild cards, it is nice to have a position that they can count on for 2-3 WAR.

As for Smith, he will be missed but his loss won't hurt the Royals. Given his skill set, his value is higher for a team like the Brewers than it is for Kansas City. The Royals seemed to have already sentenced him to life as a reliever. For the Brewers he should get the opportunity to pitch in the back of their rotation. 

Smith is a good relief arm, but I applaud the Royals for dealing from a position of strength. I don't think this move immediately changes the fortunes for the Royals in 2014, but it does fill one of the voids that needed to be addressed this offseason.

One additional note, I've been asked several times how I believe this affects the Beltran talks. In my opinion it doesn't. I've heard that Glass is viewing Beltran as an opportunity to really squash his non-caring image. I think if the Royals do sign Beltran, it means that Butler is on the move. 

If anything this trade this protected the Royals from themselves and their own urge to regularly play Beltran in RF. The Butler vs Beltran debate is better suited for another post. In my opinion, this move does not remove Kansas City from the Beltran equation.

Thank you again to all those who have congratulated us on breaking this trade. We appreciate the support, but most of all we appreciate to talk Royals baseball with you every single day. 

Be sure to follow each of our writers @tipof_arrowhead @PadenBennett22 @Daniel_L_Ware and myself @Landon_Adams. 

Royals Extend Dayton Moore

I met this news of the Dayton Moore extension with less frustration than most who occupy my Twitter timeline. Ultimately, the news was so predictable that I had resigned myself to it two months ago when Kansas City completed the 2013 campaign with their most wins in a single season since 1989.

I think the key point in the deal was the fact that it was only for two years. I think this strikes a good balance between a couple of sets of problems. Before we can focus on these two items, I think we also need to admit to ourselves one thing: Dayton Moore was not getting fired after 86 wins. 

I'm not going to open the can of worms that is the Myers-Shields debate and I'm not going to argue about the worth of an 86 win season. What is important is that for the front office this serves as a stepping stone. What is even more important is that for an organization that has been deprived of winning for two decades, 86 wins serves as a beacon of hope.

Once we accept that Dayton Moore wasn't going to be fired, an extension became obvious. When you extend your manager past the general manager there is a safe bet that an extension is on the way for the latter. The other concern would have been the incredible moral hazard that would have existed should Dayton Moore only been under contract for 2014. You think he acted in desperation to acquire James Shields? Imagine what might have happened if he entered 2014 knowing it was division title or unemployment line. 

The last time Dayton Moore was extended it was for four seasons. This go around it will be for an additional two seasons. What this says to me is that David Glass expects another step forward in 2014. Glass has kept the pressure on Moore. At the same time, does a three year contract prevent Glass from parting ways in a year, if 2014 is a disaster? Absolutely not. 

While I would love to see what an analytical, forward-thinking front office could do with the current roster, I think this extension treads a fine line for both parties. It eliminates the possibility of a moral hazard on Moore's part, but it also leaves Glass with the wriggle room to part ways as soon as the situation dictates it. Let's hope Moore can reward Glass for his faith.

David Glass Interview

From the bottom of the 2nd to the end of the 3rd inning in tonight's season finale, Ryan and the Wonder Dog caught up with Owner David Glass, discussing how the team has played this season, scenarios for the off-season, this year's MVP, and other hot topics.  Here are some of the notes I took from Glass:

- State of the Royals: "Dayton and his people have done a fantastic job.  Our major goal coming in was to build up our Minor League systems and I feel very good where we are right now."

- "Watching during Spring Training, I thought we would play .500 baseball this year."

- Glass is going to allow whatever it takes to get pitching this off-season.

- Wasn't too confident about trading.

- 1st time in a very long time that we have enough prospects to trade for good starting pitching.

- "You're a baseball fan aren't ya Mr. Glass?!" - Rex.  (Thanks for chiming in there Wonder Dog.)

- "We're committed to win here in Kansas City.  This town will have the Royals for a very long time.  I think we would be in the playoff hunt right now if it weren't for Paulino and Duffy going down."

- "As for Dayton, he makes the call on whether we have to fill the holes internally or to go out and sign somebody.  I trust Dayton and his people's judgement."

- "Our pitching is developing very well throughout the organization.  Not only pitching, but some of our newly drafted kids.  Bubba Starling will do great things, so will that Mondesi kid we've got."

- "Guthrie and Sanchez were essentially the same player, but once we brought Jeremy here to KC, he was a totally different player."

- Glass on the A's, "I didn't think they would be good, watching them in Spring Training early this year."

I was glad to hear that David would 'do whatever it takes to get pitching.'  Now I was concerned about how he wasn't sure about trading.  To me, he probably meant he wasn't sure if trading prospects is the best way to go.  I'm very curious as to how Dayton and his team will go about getting pitching during the winter. One thing we can all agree on: pitching is in dire need for our rotation.  Whether we look into young arms to fill the void, or go after say Shawn Marcum, Edwin Jackson or even Zack Greinke, it's all in GMDM's hands. Remember Dayton: Mr. Glass has your back and will help! (So he says tonight...).