In the Cross Hairs: Brandon Phillips

The Reds are said to be open for business and on their team there are several intriguing options that could fit for the Kansas City Royals. We've heard a lot about the Royals interest in Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake. Perhaps, there is another name that could catch the Royals' eyes. I'm speaking of the flashy Brandon Phillips.

When talking about the Cincinnati second baseman, the first thing we need to recognize is that he is not the offensive force that he once was. In fact, since the start of the 2013 season, the former 2nd Round pick has played in 352 games and hit just .267/.310/.381, which is good for an OPS+ of 91. A below average line, but still much better than the .245/.278/.326 line that Omar Infante boasts as a Royal.


What Phillips does bring to the table is excellent defense. This season, Fangraphs credits him as having been worth 4 defensive runs saved, and being worth 2.5 UZR/150. Both of which are above average tallies. In fact, since the start of the 2013 season, Phillips ranks 3rd among qualified second basemen in converting "Remote" (1-10%) plays into outs at 9.8%. He ranks 1st in "Unlikely" (11-40%) plays at 51.5%. He ranks 7th in "Even" (41-60%) plays and 3rd in "Likely" (61-90%). Quite simply his glove is one of the best (and most fun to watch) in baseball.

So what would it take to land Phillips should the Royals decide to pursue this route?

Here's how Phillips contract breaks down moving forward:

• 2015 - $12 million (roughly $5.2 remaining)
• 2016 - $13 million
• 2017 - $14 million

Phillips is currently worth 1.1 fWAR in 2015 and ZIPs projects him to garner 0.9 over the remainder of the season. If Phillips can continue to be worth about 4 WAR for the remainder of his deal. By valuing a win at the current Fangraphs valuation of $7.6 million, then Phillips would be worth -$1.7 million in excessive value. If we go with a more conservative $5.5 million valuation of wins, then Phillips drops to -$10.2 million. 

So let's say the Royals could work out a Infante plus a prospect swap for Phillips. Before we know what kind of prospect that we'd be talking about we first need to evaluate Infante in the same way that we have Phillips. ZIPs currently projects Infante to be worth about 0.3 WAR over the remainder of 2016. If we project Infante to then be worth 0 WAR in 2016 & 17, then his excessive value would be -$15.6 million at the Fangraphs rate and -$16.2 million at the more conservative rate. 

What we see here is that the difference in excess value between Phillips and Infante comes in somewhere between $6.2 and $13.9 million. Thanks to the work of The Point of Pittsburgh on prospect valuation, We can see that sort of valuation would be reflective of a borderline top 100 prospect, or even a pitching prospect ranked somewhere in the 51-100 range in a top 100. Prospects that could work in this range would be guys like Jorge Bonifcaio, Bubba Starling, Miguel Almonte, Brandon Finnegan, Sean Manaea, and maybe guys like Foster Griffin, or Scott Blewett.

So Royals fans, how would you feel about an Omar Infate plus one of the aforementioned players for Brandon Phillips? Would sacrificing a prospect of that quality be worth the upgrade? Is the upgrade worth having Brandon Phillips less than stellar personality in Kansas City?

Tell me @Landon_Adams! 

In the Cross Hairs: Cameron Maybin

Over the next couple of weeks, I hope to take a look at several different players that the Royals could/should target via trade. As I highlighted here, I believe that the Royals should pursue an outfielder at this year's trade deadline. Also, according to Jon Heyman the Royals are actively searching the trade market for outfield help.

Royals, pirates among teams looking at outfield help

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) July 12, 2015

For these reasons, I'll probably focus my efforts on examining outfielders. Let's start with Atlanta Braves center fielder Cameron Maybin.

A former first round pick and top prospect, Maybin has for the most part failed to live up to the hype as a Major League player. However, the Asheville, North Carolina native has produced 9.3 fWAR over 641 career games, which translates to about 2.4 fWAR per 162. For comparison's sake, Alcides Escobar has been worth 2.1 fWAR per 162 throughout his career.

For his career, Maybin has hit .252/.317/.372. However, in 2015, Maybin has boosted that line to .289/.356/.418. Clearly, teams need to be wary of acquiring players when they are at peak performance and in this case, Maybin is having the best offensive season of his career (117 RC+). The question becomes is this luck driven or change driven?

In this particular circumstance, I believe there is a strong case that Maybin has turned a corner offensively. Although, I don't believe it do be quite as pronounced as the stats seem to indicate. To double check on this, I ran Maybin's contact rates through a xBABIP calculator to see what we should expect his line to be thus far this season.

• Actual: .289/.356/.418 with 8 HR
• xBABIP Adjusted: .303/.368/.433 with 8 HR

Now let's look at how his numbers change if we change his HR/FB% to league average of 10.5%:

•  .295/.361/.396 with 5 HR

Finally, how would the numbers look with Maybin's career HR/FB% instead of the 16% that he has blasted out in 2015.

• .293/.359/.386 with 4 HR

My personal conclusion is that as a 28 year old with regular playing time for the first time since 2012, Maybin has improved at the plate. He is posting a career high 9.3% walk rate and he is squaring the ball up more frequently than he has at any other point in his Major League career. What I don't buy is the sudden increase in power. However, even if you accept the final line that uses Maybin's career HR/FB% a .293/.359/.386 line would represent an enormous improvement of Alex Rios's .238/.266/.288. 

Of course when talking about Maybin the offense is only a portion of what intrigues me. Despite a career year at the plate, the numbers indicate that Maybin has struggled defensively in 2015. Defensive Runs Saved believes that Maybin has cost the Braves 14 runs this season. UZR has him at -7.2 runs through the first half. 

These numbers come as a bit of a surprise considering that through Maybin's first 8 seasons, he was worth on average about 3 runs saved per year. Nothing special, but a slightly above average defensive center fielder carries value and typically translates into an above average corner outfielder. Fortunately, for the Royals that is exactly where Maybin would wind up. 

While it isn't a slam dunk, my guess is that if Maybin were to move to a corner at Kauffman Stadium, his defense would play up in a tremendous way. The Royals have finally begun to realize that the uniqueness of Kauffman's spacious outfield can be an enormous competitive advantage. Essentially, by fielding 2 or 3 center fielders, there is enough space that the individual's fielding territories don't overlap which allows for maximum defensive effect. 

Maybin is currently owed about $3.5 million for the remainder of the 2015 season. He is under control at a very affordable $8 million for 2016 and has a $9 million team option for 2017 that includes a $1 million buyout. Overall, if the Royals were to acquire the Braves outfielder, the team would owe him a approximately $12.5 million guaranteed. Not only would that buy the Royals a fill in during Alex Gordon's time on the disabled list, but it would also check off a box on this winter's shopping list.

Another aspect that draws me to Maybin is the fact that he is right handed. I've made no secret that I believe Jarrod Dyson should be playing more often. If the Royals were to acquire Maybin they could put Dyson and Rios into a platoon at the other corner. Then when Gordon comes back, Maybin could take Rios's place with Dyson occasionally spelling him against right handed pitching. (Of course, my dream would be to DFA Rios and start both Maybin and Dyson everyday until Gordon returns. Sight.) If the Royals can manage to bring back Gordon for the 2016 season, I believe that it'd make more sense to acquire a right handed hitter than a lefty for the reason above. 

So would the Braves trade Maybin? What would it take? The answer to the first question is not obvious, but I believe the answer to be yes. The Braves are clearly in a rebuild mode. Despite their best efforts to keep things interesting in 2015, the team is now 7 games behind the Nationals in the NL East and 6 behind the Cubs for the second wild card.

EDIT: According to Bill Shanks the Braves are open for business and wouldn't refuse a strong trade offer for Maybin. Shanks believes the Braves could reasonably demand a prospect in a team's 5-10 range. For the Royals that zone preseason included: Hunter Dozier, Miguel Almonte, Foster Griffin, Scott Blewett, Jorge Bonifacio, and Christian Colon.

What would it take to acquire Maybin is a more difficult question to answer. Let's say we are optimistic and project Maybin to be worth 1 fWAR for the rest of 2015, 2.5 fWAR for 2016, and 2.5 fWAR. Let's say we don't discount future value and we value 1 fWAR at $8 million, which seems high. If we do all of these things, we find that Maybin is worth about $27 million in surplus value. (Considering the way we reached this figure, I believe this to be on the high end.)

Based on the work from The Point of Pittsburgh, this is roughly the equivalent of a pitching prospect in the #26-50 range and a pitching prospect in the #51-75 range. 

If we take a more pessimistic approach in how we value Maybin, we could reach the conclusion that he is worth more like $6-10 million in surplus value. This would make Maybin worth a border line top 100 prospect. 

Based off all of this, I could see the Braves and Royals coming together somewhere in between. Perhaps, one of the Royals top pitching prospects, plus another guy ranking in the 20-45 ranges of the Royals top prospects. This aligns well with what resident Braves fan Nick Allen guessed at on Twitter. He discussed the Braves desire to add arms and catching depth and throughout a Maybin for Brandon Finnegan and Zane Evans swap. 

It has been said before, but if the Royals do move a top prospect, it seems like Finnegan is the most likely to go. Finnegan was a beast last October, but the Royals approach to his development this season has at times been baffling. At this point, I think it is likely that the Royals view him as a reliever long term and with that being the case, his value could be higher as a trade commodity than as a building block for future teams. I also recall that from his MLB Network days that John Hart, President of Operations for the Atlanta Braves was a huge Miguel Almonte fan.

What do you think Royals fans? Would you trade either Brandon Finnegan or Miguel Almonte plus another low level prospect for Maybin? Let me know!

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

The State of the Royals Outfield

As Royals nation collectively awaits the official results of the MRI on Alex Gordon's left leg, we are left to ponder what this means for the team moving forward. If the early indications are true that it is a grade 3 groin strain, then (based off a limited amount of research) Gordon could be sidelined between 6 and 12+ weeks. So let's look at how that breaks down on the calendar:

6 weeks - August 19 

7 weeks - August 26

8 weeks - September 2

9 weeks  - September 9

10 weeks  - September 16

11 weeks  - September 23

12 weeks - September 30

Obviously, that's not a good situation. Another note is that the final game of the 2014 Minor League season on September 16. The importance of this is that if Gordon winds up being out 9+ weeks, then it is extremely unlikely that the Royals would have the ability to send their All-Star left fielder on rehab assignment. If Gordon winds up being out 9+ weeks, the Royals would have to reacclimate him through batting practice and a careful increase in playing time at the Major League level. 

It is not impossible to get a guy back to speed without a rehab assignment, but it does make it a bit more difficult. Not to mention the possibility that the Royals could be playing in extremely important games over the last several weeks of the season. 

Here is how I see it. If Gordon takes 9 weeks or less to return, the Royals are able to send him on rehab to the Minors and have the best chance of reintegrating him into the lineup in an effective manner. If Gordon takes between 9 and 11 weeks to return to game shape, the Royals have a shot of getting him back for October. If Gordon takes 12 or more weeks before he is ready for game action, the Royals will find themselves in an incredibly difficult spot of whether or not he should be included on a postseason roster when he has hardly played for two and a half months. 

Long story short, if the news comes back that Gordon has sustained a grade 3 groin strain, then the team must approach this as though they will not see Gordon again this season. Prior to the injury, I had enough faith in Jarrod Dyson that I didn't believe the Royals needed to acquire a corner outfielder to replace the lackadaisical Alex Rios. Now, I believe it is quite certain that the Royals should seek out replacement opportunities. 

I view this situation in two parts. First, there is the 2015 problem. Rios is terrible and now Gordon is hurt. The Royals need to fill two outfield spots and they have a solution for one (Dyson). The second part of this is 2016. While the injury will increase the likelihood that Alex Gordon returns to Kansas City for the 2016 season, there is still a very good chance that he departs. If this is the case then the Royals return just Lorenzo Cain, Jarrod Dyson, and Paulo Orlando. Even if Dyson proves that he can play everyday in 2016, the Royals still need another starting outfielder. 

If you find an outfielder now, you get the benefit of improving the roster for the remainder of 2015 by pushing aside Rios, while also getting a step ahead in setting the 2016 roster. If by chance the Royals are able to bring back Gordon for 2016, then they again can push Dyson into a rotation role as the fourth outfielder and will be even stronger a unit for the 2016 campaign.

It is my opinion that the outfielder the Royals need will come via trade. Some would argue that there are capable internal replacements and here is how I would counter on each of those options.

Paulo Orlando - Fourth Outfielder

Brett Eibner - The former second round pick has some promise. He is 26, extremely streaky at the plate, plays good defense, and has a good arm. He is also hitting .292/.349/491 in Omaha. There is a part of me that believes he could grab and handle an everyday job. However, I also know that Werner Park heavily favors right handed power and as a 26 year old, he needs to prove it in the Majors. The scenario that I prefer is that the Royals acquire a starting RF and Eibner gets called up in replace of Orlando or as a 5th outfielder. Given his power from the right side, I think he complements the roster better than Orlando. There is already a ton of speed, but a power bat off the bench would be a bonus and Eibner could even wind up in the small side of a platoon with Dyson.

Whit Merrifield - Based on reports it sounds like Merrifield could be the guy to replace Gordon on the roster. The former 9th round pick is an easy player to root for, but he is 26 and is currently slugging .392 in a hitter friendly league. He gets bonus points for being able to play both outfield and second base, but I don't see the South Carolina product as an answer.

Moises Sierra/Reymond Fuentes/Jose Martinez - All of these guys have done enough to get a chance to fill a void on the roster for a little bit. However, the Royals aren't filling this hole with any of these retreads.

Lane Adams - At 25 years old, the toolsy outfielder is barely hanging on to the prospect label. He's excellent defensively, can steal bases, and shows flashes at the plate. He received a cup of coffee last September and the organization loves his athleticism. Similar to Eibner, I think he is a guy who could complement Dyson well in a platoon role for left field. However, he isn't going to ever be an everyday outfielder.

Jorge Bonifacio/Bubba Starling - I've lumped these two 22 year olds together because I think at this point they have similar trajectories. Both could be in a position at some point in 2016 to deserve a look as an everyday guy. At this point, it is clear that both need more minor league seasoning. Unless the Royals decide to go the Salvador Perez route  in their developmental approach, neither of these prospects will be slam dunks to deserve a Major League spot at the beginning of 2016.

All of this brings us back to my initial conclusion. The Royals need to add a corner outfielder to the roster sometime in the next few weeks. It will be an enormous boost to the team for 2015, and will also better position the team for success in 2016. 

I've been wanting to get going on here for awhile, but have been considering who other options. It is good to be back and I'll try to break down some specific trade targets over the next few weeks. 

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams! 

An Ode to Mr. Zoombiya

The Royals entered the offseason with three positions to fill. Fans and the front office agreed the team needed to find a right fielder (to replace the departing Nori Aoki), a designated hitter (to replace the departing Billy Butler), and a starting pitcher (to replace the departing James Shields). It was generally accepted that the voids would need to be filled with individuals outside the organization and thus far Kansas City has checked two of the items off their list.

I'm not going to spend time in this post analyzing the Alex Rios or Kendrys Morales additions, but instead I am going to ask a simple question. Why couldn't the team have filled right field with an in-house option? No, I'm not talking about Carlos Peguero. I'm talking about Jarrod Dyson.

Unlike Peguero there has been absolutely zero buzz about the possibility of breaking camp with Jarrod Dyson starting in the outfield. Why not?

The simple answer is that Dyson looks like a fourth outfielder. He is an excellent defensive replacement and an enormous weapon off the bench as a pinch runner. The former 50th round pick is so good in the fourth outfielder role that narrative dictates that is all he is. Never mind the fact that despite only receiving 290 plate appearances and playing in just 120 games, Dyson ranked 36th among outfielders in fWAR in 2014 and 5th on the team.

At this point many people tend to point out that Dyson's numbers were inflated due to the fact that he faced predominately right handed pitching last season. This is true. In 2014, Dyson faced right handed pitching in 81% of his plate appearances. Given that the typical regular sees right handed pitching approximately 70% of the time, we should adjust our expectations to reflect that number.

In order to get a more accurate feel on what Dyson's production would be over the course of the season, I broke out The Spitter. If you are unfamiliar with The Spitter or new to this blog, it is a projection system that weights batted ball data and is able to "spit" out a projection. The Spitter can then take these numbers and provide a wOBA and a WAR total for the player. I've added 2014 park factors to the Spitter, so the numbers are even more accurate now than they have been in the past. Like any projection system, The Spitter occasionally whiffs, but a vast majority of last season's projections were extremely accurate.

Since we aren't actually creating a projection for Dyson, I have adjusted The Spitter to give us full season results had Dyson maintained his contact rates against lefties and faced them in 30% of 600 plate appearances, as well as maintaining his contact rates against righties in the same plate appearance size.

Enough with the technical mumbo-jumbo. Had our hero been able to keep up his performance over a 600 plate appearance sample his season line should have ended up looking like this:

Jarrod Dyson 2014: .270/.329/.330, .297 wOBA and 1.34 WAR.

This might not seem like a very impressive player, but this fails to consider Dyson's defense. When we plug in a positional adjustment and factor in Dyson's UZR from 2014, The Spitter increases Dyson's WAR  to 5.23. This tally would have ranked 22nd in baseball among all players and 10th among outfielders. Again, those results are not fudged. They are simply an extrapolation of the numbers that Dyson posted in 2014.

By the way, we still haven't accounted for baserunning. According to Fangraphs, Dyson was worth approximately 4.5 runs on the bases in 2014. When you consider that he would be on the bases 196 times in our extrapolated sample, compared to just 92 in reality, all of the sudden Dyson's legs add in another 9.6 runs in value. This would increase Dyson's WAR to approximately 6.28, ranking him as the 6th most valuable outfielder in baseball.

At this point, things are starting to get a little crazy. How could Mr. Zoombiya really be worth nearly 6.3 wins above replacement? It just doesn't make sense. Blatantly, this thought doesn't fit the narrative. Dyson is a fourth outfielder. He is a former 50th round pick that has scraped out a career with his legs to earn a few seasons in the Show. He sure as hell doesn't look like a 6 win player.

What we have to realize is that Dyson doesn't look like a starting player, because his value comes in things that are more difficult to see. He isn't bopping home runs. He isn't hitting .320. He isn't posting 100 RBI seasons. He is a world class runner, He does get on base at a decent clip. He did post the highest UZR/150 out of all players with over 600 innings in the field.

For those of you that know me, you know that I have long been a Jarrod Dyson fan. I've defended him when few others would and I would loudly proclaim that his arm was vastly underrated until finally it wasn't. But do I think that Jarrod Dyson is a top ten outfielder in the Major Leagues? No. I do not.

I do think that given a full time job, it would be safe to project Dyson as a 3.5 win player in 2015.  He might have a skill set that will cause his value to drop off quicker than the average outfielder, but he isn't going to become an average runner between now and April 6.

The Royals just paid Alex Rios $11 million hoping that he will turn back into the 3 win player that he was in 2013. Jarrod Dyson will make a fraction of that cost as a first time arbitration eligible player this year and he was worth 3 Wins Above Replacement in a part time role last season. Not to mention, Dyson won't be eligible for free agency until after the 2017 season.

For guys like Jarrod Dyson sometimes it is impossible to overcome the narrative and get the shot they deserve. Regardless, I'll be in Kansas City on Opening Day sitting in section 118, wearing my Mr.Zoombiya jersey. If you can find me, we'll get a drink and and dream about what Dyson could be have been as the Royals' everyday centerfielder.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

In The Cross Hairs: Brandon McCarthy

What a year.  What an unbelievably, amazing season  from our Boys in Blue.  Right off the bat, I want to thank the Royals for giving all of us memories we will cherish forever.  Sure we had some bad spells, I can even recall a game we attended in May against the Astros.  Nothing was going our way that series.  For kicks, I said to fellow Royal Revival members Landon and Paden, "Watch this..Chris Carter. Left Field bullpen. Dinger."  Sure enough.  Things weren't going our way, but the boys ignored the doubters and eventually made the World Series for the first time in my young life.  I look forward to talking to my children about this season, but I also look forward to the future and how bright it certainly looks!

Onward we go.  This winter should be a busy one for Dayton Moore and Company.  Three key positions need to be answered in the coming months.  As you know, the Royals announced they had declined Billy Butler's $12.5 million option, which should have been no surprise to anyone.  Billy wants to stay, which is great to hear, but a cheap and mutual agreement between Butler and the Royals will be needed.  While discussing this with fellow R.R. members, we believe a 1 year $6 million deal could do it, or possibly a 2 year $12 million contract.  However, if another suitor comes along with a 2 year $14 million deal on the table, I think Butler takes it.  He's repeatedly said he wants to #BeRoyal, but baseball is a business.  We'll have to wait and see what he decides.  Life without Billy just doesn't seem right.

To the main topic of this post.  Our rotation was revamped two years ago when the Royals traded top prospect Wil Myers for James Shields and Wade Davis.  I think it's safe to say, we won the trade.  Now that 2014 has come to a close, 'Big Game' James is a free agent and is seeking big money in free agency. Will the Royals extend a Qualifying Offer of 1 year $15.3 million to the soon-to-be 33 year old?  Sure.  Will James take the deal?  He will probably test the waters of the market before discussing anything with the Royals.  One place I can see him land is Chicago.  No, not with the White Sox, but reuniting with his former manager Joe Maddon and dawning a Cubs uniform.  The Cubs have a great core of young talent and something they could use again is an ace for their rotation.  I don't want Shields to go away any more than I do Billy, but with the Royals current situation, Butler seems to be the top priority for the time being.

So, let's talk in terms of 2015 without James Shields.  He undeniably helped the Royals get to where they are today, but Dayton and his colleagues need to think of a possible replacement.  One idea could be to sign 31 year old Brandon McCarthy.  There's no question that he wasn't superb in Arizona to begin the 2014 season.  In 18 starts for the D-Backs, he was 3-10 with a 5.01 ERA.  Those numbers helped the Yankees lure him in from Arizona by exchanging Vidal Nuno.  McCarthy stepped up in a big way for his final 14 starts, going 7-5 with a 2.89 ERA with 82 Ks and 13 BBs in 90.1 innings.  This was definitely a nice acquisition considering the injuries to C.C. Sabathia and Masahiro Tanaka.

Photo by Bill Kostroun, NYPost.com

2014 was definitely a breath of fresh air for Brandon.  For Arizona and NY combined, he logged 200 innings for the first time in his career, and the most since his 2011 campaign with Oakland when he threw 170 innings.  For most of his career, McCarthy has been inconsistent, except for his two year stint in Oakland, which he enjoyed very much.  In 281.2 innings, he had a combined ERA of 3.29 with 196 Ks and 49 BBs.  He has good command of his fastball, which averaged 93 mph this season, he features a nice cutter that the Yankees encouraged him to through again, which could be part of his success in the pinstripes.  He'll also put some sink on his fastball and throws a curveball around 80 mph and a changeup, but the off-speed pitch was almost non-existent as he threw it only 0.7% of the time.

McCarthy would definitely be a gamble.  He made $10.25 million in 2014, while making a combined $15.5 million the last two seasons.  I've seen possible offers for the righty at around $30 million in total for 3 years.  That's quite a bit for the Royals to take on, considering McCarthy has been anything but consistent throughout his career.  Here's a plus: his groundball and flyball numbers have flipped since the beginning of his career in 2005.  According to FanGraphs, his GB% the past 2 seasons: 48.2% and 52.6%, respectively.  FB% the past 2 seasons: 27.1% and 24.7%.  Compared to Shields, McCarthy would be a cheaper replacement, but is it worth the risk on the unpredictable 31 year old?

Money to Spend on Amateur Talent

Last Wednesday, Baseball America brought us a few different articles breaking down the bonus pools by team for the 2014 amateur draft and international signing period. If you missed it, you can read the article here.

Once again, the Royals rank very highly in terms of total money available to spend on amateur talent for 2014. They rank 18th in baseball in terms of international budget at $2,136,800, but despite not selecting until the second half of the draft they rank 5th in draft bonus pool at $8,602,900. This is a result of the compensation pick that was received for Ervin Santana and the competitive balance pick they received for playing in one of the smallest markets in baseball.

Overall, the Royals rank 8th in total budget for 2014 at $10,739,700. The White Sox rank 3rd, the Twins 6th, the Indians 10th, and the Tigers 25th.

With what is rumored to be a deep draft in 2014, the Royals will have four selections in the first 56 (17, 28, 40, 56). This should again present the Royals with a prime opportunity to add to what figures to be one of the top farm systems in baseball heading into 2015.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

Monday Musings: April 7, 2014

A couple of the quickest things to normalize for hitters are their strikeout and walk rates. We're one week into the season and as a team the Royals have logged 185 plate appearances. It is still early, but there are good indications that the 2014 Royals approach could be much better than the 2013 version.

Last season, Royals hitters walked in just 6.7% of their plate appearances. A mark which ranked 27th in all of baseball. In fact, six of the top nine Royals in walk percentage from a season ago are no longer with the team (George Kottaras, Johnny Giavotella, Emilio Bonifacio, Jamey Carroll, Adam Moore, and Chris Getz). So far this season, the Royals are walking in 9.7% of their plate appearances, which is good for 6th in baseball. Last year's league leader walked 9.4% of the time.

On the strikeout side, after ranking second in the league last season, we knew that the Royals would be even better when they brought in Nori Aoki (struck out just 5.9% of the time in 2013) and Omar Infante (9.2% in 2013). So far this season, the Royals are leading the league in strikeout percentage at just 13.5%. Surprisingly, Aoki is has struck out in 15.8% of his plate appearances, while Infante has 13.6% of the time.

Obviously, we are just one week into the season, but this a team that does an excellent job of keeping the ball in play. The Royals have ranked in the top 3 in strikeout percentage in each of the last four seasons with 2010, being their best mark at just 14.6%. If they can keep the percentage under 14% over the entire season it will be the first time a team has done it since the Twins, Dodgers, and Mariners did it in 2007. If they can keep it at 13.5%, it will rank as the lowest number for a team since the Athletics only struck out 13.1% of the time in 2005.

Of course, if we mention the Royals start in the K% and BB% we should also make a point about the lack of power displayed in the first week of the season. Currently, the Royals rank last in baseball in isolated power at 0.61 and 28th in slugging percentage at .305. Oh and by the way, the Royals are the only team in baseball that has yet to hit a home run in 2014. The Giants already have 11.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams! 

Friends in No Places

“No.”

“It can’t be.”

“This can’t be true.”

“But … Why?”

These were my first four thoughts after learning that Garth Brooks’ famous 1990 hit, “Friends in Low Places,” would no longer be the official 6^th inning anthem of the Kansas City Royals. Instead, this anthem would be decided by a vote.

A vote!

As Jeffrey Flanagan of Fox Sports wrote:

“The Royals are planning to hold a contest at each home game in the middle of the sixth inning that will allow fans to select a song from a list of three or more nominees. The winning song then will advance in bracket form until there is one winner…

“Like the NCAA tournament many moons ago, the anthem bracket will start with 32 contestants and work its way to a final two on June 7 against the Yankees. The fans' choice as the winning song will become the Royals' new anthem from June 8 on.”

But why?

According to Royals Vice President of Community Affairs and Publicity, Toby Cook, "We just felt that 2014 was a good time to try something a little different there … It's been a long tradition and it had become sort of our anthem at Kauffman Stadium. But now we'll be looking for a new anthem."

Guess what Toby, tradition isn’t made; it’s born. Born out of happenstance, molded out of acceptance, and continued because of legacy. By allowing this to be decided by such a silly thing as a vote, you are now saying that tradition is only as good as the times we live in. Yes, the song is old, but it’s not nearly the age of “Sweet Caroline”, and Red Sox fans have been “bah bah bah”ing for years. Do you think Boston’s front office will decide to replace it?

Of all the things the Royals would allow fans to vote on, why this? Why not the ability to vote on contract extensions, or free agent acquisitions, or whether or not to fire Ned Yost? Clearly these are things the fans need an input in since the front office can’t seem to get it right.

And of course the Royals would decide to replace the song the same year they make their slogan “Be Royal.” It’s clear that the Lorde hit, “Royals,” will be made the winner. The fix is in, and the second greatest cover up in human history will unfold in front of our very eyes, disguised as a clever marketing campaign.

Don’t fall for the ruse.

Haters have been criticizing the song for years. Why? Because every time the song comes on it seems like the Royals just gave up a crooked number on the scoreboard? Well, since “Friends in Low Places” became a sixth inning tradition in 2008, the Royals have sucked for the majority of that time. So what are you really mad at haters? Garth Brooks doing his damnedest to cheer up a pissed up fan-base? Or is it because one of the many terrible pitchers the Royals have had over that time just got shelled? Misplaced anger is how Hitler rose to power ladies and gentlemen; let’s not make that mistake again.

But there is still hope, Royals fans. Just a glimmer, but enough to leave this blogger with a tiny amount of hope that Garth will be restored to his rightful place on the video board. If the Royals allow a fair and balanced vote, then “Friends in Low Places” can still be the Royals anthem for 2014.

"You never know,” Cook said, “but I'm sure it will start out in one of the brackets.”

Do the right thing Royals fans. Vote for “Friends in Low Places” as the Royals anthem. Turn this sick and twisted vote into a statement that we are happy the way we are, that we enjoy our traditions, and that “Friends in Low Places” is the Midwest version of “Sweet Caroline.” But if the fix is truly in, and I will no longer have the pleasure of witnessing Garth on the video board at the K, then all I have to say is…

Honey, we may be through, but you’ll ALWAYS hear me complain.

VOTE #FriendsInLowPlaces to @Royals early and often. 

Breakout on the Horizon

I won't be shy about my feelings regarding the Royals off-season. I love the trade for Nori Aoki and the signing of Omar Infante. I'm really looking forward to watching these two at the top of the order in 2014. 

I've made no secret that I think Aoki is going to be a breakout performer in 2014. I look at his batted ball frequencies and I get giddy thinking about the BABIP he could post this season. When I think about how beneficial Kauffman Stadium is for batting average and gap hitters, I get even more excited.

I couldn't be more relieved that the Royals didn't bring in a lumbering "power" bat to fill the right field hole. I was dreading the announcement of a Mark Trumbo acquisition. Entering the off-season an Aoki type player was exactly the guy that I would have targeted and I'm ecstatic to see that the Royals played it out this way. 

The decision to acquire a player like Aoki gives me faith that the Royals have finally embraced Kauffman Stadium. Instead of slow corner outfielders who can "knock in" base runners, they have realized the importance of outfielders that can cover ground in the spacious Kauffman outfield. Aoki, who is an excellent corner outfielder as a defender, should post some excellent defensive numbers for the Royals this season.

When you consider the defensive value and the fact that he is constantly putting pressure on defenses, Aoki was a savvy acquisition by the Royals brass this off-season. I've said this on Twitter, but I think Aoki will hit .310+ this season with 30+ doubles. If it turns out that the Royals have added that kind of hitter to the top of the lineup, the summer of 2014 could be a special one for Kansas City.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

Breaking Down the Royals Schedule

A season ago, the Royals got off to a decent start before allowing the wheels to fall off in the month of May. Somehow the team was able recover and after a sterling 42-27 finish to the season, they closed the year with their best record since the days of Al Gore inventing the internet (I'm not exactly sure when this occurred, but needless to say it was a long time ago.)

On Friday, the Royals will begin their defense of the Cactus League title and once again we will hope that they can get off to a fast start in 2014. Fortunately, for the Royals it appears as though unlike a season ago the schedule makers appear to have done the Royals a favor in the early going. Here's a break down of opponent winning percentage by month:

• April: .471
• May: .458
• June: .513
• July: .519
• August: .507
• September: .520

Also, here is another way to look at the data of teams over .500 versus teams under .500 by month.

• April: 13 vs teams >.500, 14 vs teams <.500
• May: 7 vs teams >.500, 22 vs teams <.500
• June: 16 vs teams >.500, 11 vs teams <.500
• July: 17 vs teams >.500, 8 vs teams <.500
• August: 16 vs teams >.500, 13 vs teams <.500
• Septemeber: 18 vs teams >.500, 7 vs teams <.500

Overall, the winning percentage of Royals 2014 opponents is .497. So it does appear that they have been given a slight break. This is mainly because they play the Twins and White Sox 18 times a piece. 

The Royals will need to get out of the gate in 2014. If they aren't sitting pretty at the end of April and May, their final four months will make it difficult to go on a run like they did a season ago. Unfortunately, when the Royals do clinch their first playoff spot since 1985, they'll have to do so away from Kauffman as the Royals final seven games are on the road. Bummer.

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Aoki in Center

In just 10 days since pitchers and catchers have reported, one common article topic has been the importance of Lorenzo Cain's health. On Sunday, the Kansas City Star's Andy McCullough brought us another one of these articles which you can read here. I don't deny the importance of Lorenzo Cain. If the man can stay healthy and hit just a little he would be a very valuable player for virtually every team in baseball. However, I don't want to talk about Lorenzo Cain's health twice in two weeks. Instead, I want to bring to light this nugget in the article:

"Yost has floated the idea of using right fielder Nori Aoki in center. Aoki played there 18 times during two seasons in Milwaukee."

If you are a reader of this blog, you know how much I like versatility. Determining whether or not Aoki can handle center during spring training is definitely advantageous for the Royals in 2014. But I also know that the Royals currently are planning to carry both Justin Maxwell and Danny Valencia, which would mean no middle infielder on the roster. Personally, I find it unlikely that the Royals will be able to make it long without a back up middle infielder and so I wonder if this Aoki in center talk is laying the groundwork for a Dyson versus middle infielder roster battle.

Let's face it, if Aoki logs time in center this Spring and looks good it definitely decreases the importance of Jarrod Dyson. If Yost finishes camp and is confident in Aoki's ability it wouldn't shock me at all to see both Valencia and Maxwell on the roster in addition to a utility man.

It would be a shame for the Royals to lose Dyson in such a way. His speed is game changing and as a back up there is definitely value in him pinch running late in close games. Also, where would the Royals be left when Lorenzo Cain gets injured? At that point, they'd have to bring up Carlos Peguero or Jimmy Paredes to be the back up outfielder and you have no one who can back up Aoki in center.

I hope the Royals realize that Dyson is too valuable of a commodity to simply move at the end of spring training. In fact, one could argue that given the importance of each game, his pinch running ability will be more important in 2014 than it has ever been. I've always been a Dyson fan, so I hope that I'm over analyzing here. At the same time, I do think the Royals need to find a way to fit a back up middle infielder on to the roster.

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Control the Inner Half

When it comes to the Royals future, there aren't many players who could tip the scales one way or another more than Mike Moustakas. Watching him blast home runs all over Arvest Ballpark in 2010, was an experience I'll never forget, but I'd love to add some memories of him doing the same in Kauffman Stadium.

On Thursday, Fox Sports Kansas City' Jeffrey Flanagan brought us this article on how the young Royals hitter is approaching the 2014 season. Here's what Moustakas had to say regarding his off-season work in Winter Ball when he hit .288/.360/.515 in 66 at bats with Cardenales de Lara:

"We worked on driving the ball the other way, and doing damage that way. If pitchers came in, I was still able to get my hands in and pull it. But that's how I got into a funk last year - I tried to pull everything. Pedro just told me (pulling every pitch) is not going to work."

 I worry that a big part of the reason Moustakas hasn't developed into the hitter that he could be is the result of poor development by the Royals front office. Having three different hitting coaches over a two year period has done no favors for the Royals former 1st round pick.

Moustakas's top strength is his ability to turn on anything on the inside part of the plate. He was lauded coming up for his incredible bat speed. But what did the Royals do? They tried to turn him into a guy that would spray line drives all over the field. Maybe they felt he needed to make this adjustment to excel at the Major League level, but they sure didn't push that too much to Moustakas when he was in the minors.

This is not to say that Moustakas was a dead pull guy in the Minor Leagues either. On the contrary what I was most impressed with when watching him in the Texas League was his ability to hit the ball with authority to all fields. One Royals executive even told me that there are regularly a few guys with legitimate power at the Double-A level, but sometimes years can go by without guys with the refined power that Moustakas displayed.

Following, Moustakas's disappointing 2012 campaign, the Royals made a hitting coach change. Then came in a couple of hitting coaches who wanted to lead the league in fewest home runs. Once again they failed to play to the California high school career home run record holder's strengths. Somewhere along the way even an uncle chimed in about how far Moustakas had deviated from the approach that once made him as fearsome as any hitter in the minor leagues.

I hope Moustakas can find the balanced approach that he once had. He needs to be able to shorten his stroke with two strikes and stop rolling over on outside pitches and hitting pop ups a mile into the air. But most importantly, Moustakas needs to command the inner half of the plate and when pitchers try to test him inside he needs to punish them just like he did for the Naturals in 2010.

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"Best in the American League"

On Wednesday, the Kansas City Star's Andy McCullough sat down with Omar Infante and it didn't take long for the conversation to steer towards the defense of Alcides Escobar, who Infante called "the best in the American League."

Infante is dead on regarding the Royals shortstop. In 2013, Escobar ranked second in all of baseball in UZR for a shortstop. This comes just two years after ranking fourth in 2011. Unfortunately, sandwiched in between those two seasons was 2012, when the Venezuelan ranked 20th out of 21 short stops in UZR (only ahead of Derek Jeter).

My guess is that there were some positioning issues with Mike Moustakas and Escobar in 2012, which results in Mike Moustakas posting an enormous UZR the year before last. This is why I personally don't think Moustakas took a step back defensively last year anymore than Escobar rebounded from 2012. The more important issue is that while the Royals left side is stout defensively, they both need to hit in order to continue to hold down Major League jobs.

Last season, the Royals shortstop posting a wRC+ of 49. This mark was the lowest produced by a qualifying player since 2010 when Cesar Izturis hit .230/.277/.268 with the Orioles in 150 games.

Of course, former Orioles manager Dave Trembley had the sense to bat this kind of hitter at the bottom of the order and Izturis only appeared in three games hitting either 1 or 2. Ned Yost on the other hand hit Escobar in the leadoff and two spot 74 times in 2014. When you talk about lineup optimization, there might not have been a more egregious decision made repeatedly in 2014, than Yost hitting Escobar 2nd.

Fortunately for the Royals the top of the lineup should be out of Escobar's hands in 2014. This should lessen the blow if Escobar is as atrocious offensively as he was a season ago. At the same time, it would be a nice boost to the offense if somehow Escobar could get back to the .293/.331/.390 line that he posted in 2012.

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David Glass's Long Term Commitment

Earlier this week, Dick Kaegel of MLB.com sat down to talk with Royals owner David Glass. You can read the entire interview here, but I want to bring you Glass's closing comment when asked if his ownership would go far into the future.

"Quite possibly, quite possibly. I think if for some reason there was a better ownership group that we felt like would be better for Kansas City than us and would agree to contractually keep the team here in Kansas City for a long time, then we'd have to consider that I think. But right now, I would say yes."

Wow! Sounds like that guy is giddy with excitement about the future of the organization and his future with it. Really what it sounds like is a guy who is ready to be done with the whole baseball team ownership thing. Seriously, how many owners in baseball would answer this question in such a way.

The question wasn't even asking what it would take to sell the team, yet that's the direction Glass chose to take it. How easy would it have been for Glass to simply say "we love Kansas City and right now I can't see a scenario that would result in a change in ownership." Instead, Glass talked about what it would take for him to move the team, almost as if he was laying the groundwork.

Listen I don't think Glass was attempting to publicly declare the team available, but answers this question in such a way definitely doesn't paint the image of an owner in love with the organization. David Glass is a savvy businessman and I have no doubt that he has learned to choose his words carefully in interviews. I find it very interesting that he answered this question in such a way.

I don't think Glass has been the villain in the Dayton Moore era as he was during Allard Baird's time at the helm. However, I don't think that winning is his number one priority either. He does himself no favors when he answers a question in this manner, but it is good to see that before he sells the team the buyer would have to insure a long-term commitment to Kansas City. I don't think I'd be the only one disappointed if the Royals became the toy of another billionaire owner, so long as he plays with that toy in Cow Town.

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40 Home Run Tree

The Royals pulled off quite the steal the other day when they reached up to the 40 home run a season tree and pulled off a big piece of Carlos Peguero. Fox Sports' Jeffrey Flanagan was able to sit down with one Royals scout who isn't afraid to veer into the hyperbole. (You can read the full article here.)

"He has the power to be a 40-home guy, maybe more. He just has never had the chance to show it. He's also been through too many hitting coaches and everyone has tried to change him. Some team will let him be himself and be rewarded with a special talent."

The author of the article, doesn't just stop at the 40 home run a year upside, just take a look at the title of the article "Royals Outfielder Carlos Peguero, the next Jose Bautisita? Could be." Wow, there really is no time like Spring Training. Let's take a second to entertain these Peguero - Bautista comparisons.

Here's a look at Peguero's numbers heading into his age 27 season:

• Minors: 3133 plate appearances, .274/.334/.504
• Majors: 219 plate appearances, .195/.242/.380 worth -.05 bWAR

And Baustista entering his age 27 season:

• Minors: 1711 plate appearances, .285/.376/.470
• Majors: 120 plate appearances, .240/.329/.395 worth -3 bWAR

On the surface the primary difference between the two players is that Bautista logged a much higher percentage of his plate appearances at the Major League level than did Peguero. Of course, there is one other enormous difference that we don't see in the numbers above. Bautista during his time in the minors struck out 19.8% of the time and walked 11.5%, while Peguero has struck out in a whopping 30.9% of his at bats, and walked in just 7.6% of those. 

During Peguero's brief Major League career those numbers have been even worse and he has struck out in 38.4% of his plate appearances and walked in just 4.6% of them. In fact, of players with at least 200 plate appearances over the last three seasons, Carlos Peguero holds the third worst K%. Oh, I guess I should mention that the top two are pitchers. In that same time frame, Peguero's BB% ranks 507th among the 564 qualifying players. 

It's great that the Royals are excited about a waiver claim, but let's not get crazy and make this guy out to be something that he is not. He has power. I don't deny that but even in his best Minor League season he only hit 31 home runs. Peguero's thorn has always been and will always be his awful strikeout and walk rate stats. Best case for him is that he somehow can improve his walk rate a little and become a poor man's Chris Carter, but even that would be a major victory on a waiver claim.

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Perez and His Awesome Contract

In case you missed it, on Sunday the Kansas City Star's Andy McCullough brought us this article on the importance of a healthy Salvador Perez. There is no doubt that Salvy is one of the most important pieces to this Royals team if not the most important. We are entering Year 8 of the Process and Perez represents the crown jewel of the scouting and development system that Dayton Moore has constructed.

In just 253 professional games, Perez has accumulated 7.5 fWAR, which is easily more than any other hitter developed during the Dayton Moore regime. Perez has compiled this mark at quite the discount for Kansas City. In a time when amateur players are signing for millions of dollars, Perez signed for just $65,000.

Obviously, for Perez to develop into any sort of Major League contributor he would have proved to be an excellent investment, but Dayton Moore swooped in and signed him to a long term deal after just 39 professional games. The deal guaranteed Perez $7 million over the first five years of the deal and included three team options would could take the value all the way up to $21.75.

The deal was a masterstroke by Moore and will most likely be remembered as the best move of his tenure. The contract not only guaranteed a relatively small amount of money*, but also bought the Royals two additional years of team control. Making the deal even better has been the fact that the final three years of the contract are team options.

*Consider this, Eric Hosmer's signing bonus was $6 million. the Royals promised Perez $7 million and were able to secure 8 seasons of cost control for the catcher.

There was a stretch when Dayton Moore did a nice job of locking up several guys. Billy Butler signed a four year deal with a team option, when he was reaching arbitration for the first time. Alcides Escobar signed a four year deal with two team options when he was reaching arbitration. Alex Gordon signed a four year deal with an option when he was just a season from Free Agency.

Entering this offseason I was hopeful that the Royals could do the same for some of their current assets. I also knew that there weren't a ton of logical fits to be extension. Eric Hosmer would be a fantastic player to lock up long term, but he is a Boras client that long dreamed of playing for the Yankees. Danny Duffy, hasn't shown enough control/poise/durability to warrant a guaranteed rotation spot let along a long term contract. Mike Moustakas hit like crap last season. Lorenzo Cain is too injury prone for an extension. This only leaves a few options.

James Shields would have been awesome to extend, but given the current pitching market and the fact that he is now just a year from free agency, it seems that the Royals have missed their chance (if it ever existed). It also isn't a given that a Shields extension would even be worth it.

Greg Holland has been discussed at length on this blog over the past week. He's a guy who is probably the best best to be extended prior to 2014. Of course, in terms of players extended he's a guy that probably wouldn't create a ton of excitement. At the same time if the Royals can find value in a Greg Holland extension then they should absolutely jump at the opportunity.

The final player who I will suggest is Norichika Aoki. If you've frequented this blog over the last couple of months you know how big of an Aoki fan that I am. I think he is going to be an excellent fit for Kauffman Stadium and I expect him to be wroth 2.5 WAR or more in 2014. Aoki is only signed through this season, but I would be curious as to what he might ask for in the way of an extension.

The Royals have done a nice job in putting talent together in Kansas City. Hopefully, the Royals can keep this group together long enough to put the pieces in place around them to win big. At the very least we know that we'll have a top notch catcher putting on the mask for us day in and day out for the next six seasons.

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Ned Yost; Mediocre Manager

On Sunday, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe brought us his ranking of Major League Baseball's managers. You can view the full article here. Here's what he had to say regarding the Royals commander and chief, whom he ranked as the 14th best skipper in the game.

"Management stuck with him through the tough times and Yost, with a ton of experience, is a stabilizing influence in the clubhouse. the Royals should be good for a while, and Yost is a solid choice to lead them."

For those of you that follow me on Twitter, you know that I am not a fan of Yost. I think tactically he is terrible. Of course, I also can't deny that last season's surge was impressive considering the depths from which the team had to climb from. I do think Yost deserves a great deal of credit  for preventing a young team from cashing it in after the wheels fell off in May. At the same time, the argument could also be made that he allowed a talented team's skid to snowball far too long early in the season.

Yost ranking 14th among active managers is as much of an indictment on the state of baseball management then it is on Cafardo's ranking. When you consider how far analytics have come in the front office, one has to wonder how long it will be before it has achieved widespread utilization in the clubhouse. Football coaches utilize cheat sheets to determine whether or not to kick the extra point, how long before managers are holding a run expectancy or a bullpen leverage cheat sheets?

Most of us feel as though there is no manager in the league worst than Ned Yost. Most of us also don't subject ourselves to watching the poor management decisions that run rampant throughout professional baseball on a given night. If Cafardo is right and Ned Yost really is middle of the road, think about the difference that is being made by the good managers.

Last season Terry Francona helped lead the Indians to a 92 win season, while his Royals counterpart guided the team to 86 wins. What would the records of the Indians and Royals have been if the managers swapped dugouts? Would the Royals have won 92, while the Indians just 86? Unfortunately, we'll never know the answer to this question.

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Danny Duffy's 2014 Role

Over the past couple of seasons that aren't many Royals that have tantalized Royals fans as much as former third round pick Danny Duffy. Heading into 2014, there are few in the organization that could prove to be a bigger difference maker than the lefty. According to the Kansas City Star's Pete McCullough, the Royals are finally ready to pull the reins off their young hurler. Here's what Duffy had to say on the subject:

"I feel like I'm definitely ready. Judging by my bullpen sessions out here. I've really been doing well."

The Royals went safe in their off-season acquisitions from the rotation and it is mainly because of the upside that they see in Duffy, Yordano Ventura, and Kyle Zimmer. Thus far in Duffy's career he has been worth nearly 2 fWAR, and holds a 4.75 ERA, these numbers don't exactly breed a ton of confidence, especially when you notice the 4.75 walk rate. But if you've watched Danny Duffy over the past couple of seasons, the potential is undeniable.

What Duffy needs to do is to trust his outstanding stuff. Even more than that Duffy needs to trust his defense. As far as the stuff is concerned, Duffy is fantastic. He can dial up the fastball to the mid 90s and he has shown the ability to snap off a nasty curveball. We also know that the Royals defense is fantastic. Based off these things, one would think that a breakout is right around the corner.

Duffy tends to be way to fine with his pitches. He'll often jump ahead in the count only to forfeit the advantage after he nibbles on the outside corner. Strikeouts are definitely a good thing, but Duffy needs to accept that he can't strike out every hitter. If Duffy can go on to the attack even after getting ahead in the count, he'll be much better off. If he can do this he can go deeper into games and eat more innings.

After the Bruce Chen signing, it appears that there is only one rotation spot up for grabs. There has even been some discussion that if Duffy loses out on the battle for this last spot that he could surface in the Royals bullpen. As I have said in regards to Yordano Ventura, I hope that this isn't the case.

While Duffy could learn some aggressiveness in the bullpen, I'd rather Duffy continue to log innings as a starter in Omaha. More importantly than learning how to air it out, Duffy needs to learn how to go deep into games. This is a characteristic that he won't learn in the bullpen.

Dayton Moore says that he envisions Duffy as a part of the 2015 rotation. Duffy, who is under team control for four more seasons has much more value in this capacity. It would be an enormous shame for a starter so close to contributing at the Major League level to be moved to the bullpen, unless it is with eyes toward moving him back to the rotation in the future.

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Aaron Crow's Place on the Bullpen Totem Pole

This offseason, it seemed obvious that the Royals would attempt to deal from their bullpen depth to acquire some other pieces. Yet in the end the only reliever moved wound up being left hander Will Smith in exchange for Milwaukee outfielder Norichika Aoki. Throughout the offseason I considered who could be the odd man out in the bullpen tree. The most desirable arm to move for Kansas City likely was Wade Davis, but after Davis I wondered if former Missouri Tiger Aaron Crow might offer the best blend of appeal for other teams and lack of a role on the current roster.

Crow, who earned an All-Star game appearance in 2011, has been a very solid option for Kansas City for the last three seasons posting a 3.19 ERA. Since Crow's All-Star appearance, his rate stats have quietly eroded a bit. During that same time period, Crow has seen his role shrunk as well. On Thursday, Fox Sports' Jeffrey Flanagan asked Crow about his diminished role and here is what Crow had to say:

"It's not really all that important (what inning you pitch) at the end of the day. It doesn't matter if you pitch the sixth inning or the eighth inning, just as long as the team is doing well. I don't care if you come in and face just one batter - just as long as you're helping the team win."

If you want to read the full article, you can check it out here.

There is a general thought process among Royals fans that Aaron Crow is an excellent reliever. However, last season he was basically replacement level. According to Fangraphs he was actually worth -0.1 WAR and according to Baseball-Reference he was worth just 0.3 WAR. Over his career he's been worth just 1.3 fWAR and 2.7 bWAR over three seasons. Despite all this, he has already earned $4.68 million in salary from the Royals and will be paid $1.475 million in 2014.

Crow has excellent stuff. His whippy arm action plays well in a relief role and his mid-90s fastball and slider make for some strikeouts where the hitter just looks silly. When you couple this with his pedigree, plus his three seasons of control he would be a valuable asset for a lot of teams. For the Royals though, he is probably the 5th or 6th best reliever on the staff. Given all this I would maintain that he is likely more valuable as a trade piece than as a member of the Royals bullpen.

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Wildcard Wade Wants to Start

After the signing of Bruce Chen, I don't think I was alone in assuming that the final rotation spot would come down to either Yordano Ventura or Danny Duffy. Of course, I knew that a few other names would be thrown out as candidates: Brad Penny, Chris Dwyer, Luke Hochevar, Wade Davis, and Kyle Zimmer. Despite most of us believing that Hochevar and Davis will figure in as bullpen components, both are making buzz about their focus on reclaiming roles in the rotation. On Friday, Fox Sports writer Jeffrey Flanagan brought us some quotes from Davis on the subject. 

"I'm definitely going in to start. I hope I get the opportunity to pitch and help this team win a lot of ballgames. I'm ready, probably more so than I ever have been."

When Wade Davis was acquired in conjunction with James Shields last winter, many pointed to Davis as the wild card of the deal. Defendants of the trade also were quick to cite Wildcard Wade's contract status when the Shields portion of the deal was criticized due to his two years of control. Unlike Shields, Davis came with two guaranteed seasons, plus three team options for 2015-17.

The problem with these options is that they really are only economically viable if Davis is logging his innings as a member of the team's rotation. It is likely for this reason that the Royals were so patient with Davis as a starter in 2013. Despite posting a 5.67 ERA as a starter, Davis was somehow able to hold down a rotation spot for 24 starts, and was not moved to relief duty until September.

There is a very slight possibility that Davis wasn't as bad in 2013, as his numbers would indicate. Afterall, his FIP was just 4.18, which compares quite favorably to his 5.32 ERA. This discrepancy largely stems from his .361 BABIP against. However, when plugging in his batted ball frequencies to an expected BABIP calculator, you'll find that the number isn't that much different than the BABIP that was actually posted against him. This is mainly due to opponents posting a 27.5% LD% against the former Rays farmhand. Fangraphs' tERA, which estimates ERA with batted ball data, says that his ERA should have been 5.42.

According to Troy Renck, beat writer for the Denver Post, the Royals and Rockies were discussing a deal that would have sent Wade Davis to Colorado in exchange for outfielder Dexter Fowler. If this is true then the Royals probably were very open to moving Davis throughout the offseason. Unfortunately, they were unable to find a match for a trade. Since it is hard to imagine the Royals contending and going through the Wade Davis starter experience again, it is unlikely that reliever Wade Davis will justify a $7 million option for 2015.

When the Royals acquired Wildcard Wade they likely hoped that they were acquiring a solid mid rotation starter for the next five seasons. If Davis could have been this it would have greatly helped to justify the Wil Myers trade. Regrettably, the former 3rd round pick has failed to transition into a useful rotation piece and as a result a year from now, the Royals will likely have only one compensation draft pick to show for their blue chip prospect.

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