Revisiting the Wil Myers Trade

First off, I want to apologize for my absence over the past six weeks. As many of you have read here before, I've never been one to analyze individual games or do weekly updates. Quite frankly, I haven't been writing for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, I haven't had the free time necessary to maintain this blog. I am getting married in October and in the process of a home remodel. Also, my brother was married last night, as well as fellow Royal Revival writer Paden. In addition to these items, I am currently pursuing a Master's degree and have the responsibilities of a full time job. If the posts here are few and far between over the next few months, I hope you can bare with me.

The major reason for this post today is yesterday's blockbuster trade between the Athletics and Cubs. My initial reaction to the trade was 'man, is the Cubs system stacked.' My second thought, I hope this gets Billy Beane a ring.

Despite the lack of pitching prospects in the Cubs system it seems possible that the lovable losers could push for the title of Best Farm System ever. Theo Epstein, who has stated that he wants to build a farm system like the one the Royals had is on the cusp of accomplishing just that. (On a side note, I wonder how many baseball executives looked lustily upon the Royals system and thought to themselves, "oh if only I could be the one to take them to the next level.")

Since the trade there have been many who have comped this deal to the trade that sent Wil Myers to Tampa Bay. Let me be perfectly clear, this comparison is lazy. Yes, both the Royals and A's sent a top ten prospect plus to another team for pitching talent in an attempt to win now. No, that doesn't make the trades equal. This mentality that one is approved because it is Billy Beane and the other is rejected because it is Dayton Moore is unfair to the fans smart enough to evaluate moves on a much deeper level.

The Royals made the trade to get to the periphery of playoff contention. The Athletics made the trade to win a world series title. If you equate these two items as being of the same value, then you can click the X found in the upper right hand corner of the browser. A team's placement on the win curve is essential in determining what they should be willing to pay for each additional win. This is rudimentary stuff, but somehow seems to be forgotten by those stating these trades are one in the same.

Another point that should be made is that the Royals trade occurred in the off-season, a time in which talent can be acquired without sacrificing talent already in hand. Quite simply, if the A's wanted to improve their rotation in July, they had no choice but to move talent from their organization. In the off-season, the Royals could in theory acquire talent, while also hanging on to the talent at hand. This represents an enormous difference in the trades.

Finally, Addison Russell, while he is an outstanding prospect is not ready to contribute at the Major League level. He has played 16 games in the upper levels of the Minor Leagues. Best case is that he is called up midway through next season. Meaning the A's were not going to get a return on him for basically an entire season. Wil Myers on the other hand was Major League ready and returns on him would begin the same time as the returns of the asset. This is a key point that I haven't seen mentioned, but should not be ignored.

Of course, all of this pushed me to revisit the Myers trade. Since the Royals seemingly made the decision to go for it in 2013 and 2014, it would make sense that they would have returned much more value in the short term than the Rays. In order to see if the Royals have come out ahead in the Myers-Shields trade, I decided to compare the post trade WAR totals for the Royals with the WAR total from the Royals in an alternate universe in which they stayed the course and held on to Wil Myers. Also, since the Royals would have had a solution in right field, I have included the Smith brothers, Justin Maxwell, and Nori Aoki in this evaluation.

bWAR	2013	2014		fWAR	2013	2014
w/out trade	$1.00	$1.50		w/out trade	$1.00	$1.50
Patrick Leonard	A	A+		Patrick Leonard	A	A+
Mike Montgomery	AAA	AAA		Mike Montgomery	AAA	AAA
Jake Odorizzi	0.3	0.9		Jake Odorizzi	0.3	1.5
Wil Myers	1.9	-0.6		Wil Myers	2.4	0.4
Will Smith		1.3		Will Smith		0.6
Kyle Smith	A+	AA		Kyle Smith	A+	AA
	2.2	1.6			2.7	2.5
w/trade	$11.80	$20.25		w/trade	$11.80	$20.25
James Shields	4.1	-0.1		James Shields	4.5	1.4
Wade Davis	-2.1	1.8		Wade Davis	1.7	1.5
Nori Aoki		-0.5		Nori Aoki		0.9
Justin Maxwell	0.6	-1.2		Justin Maxwell	0.7	-1.1
	2.6	0			6.9	2.7

The left hand column utilized the WAR from Baseball Reference, while the right side uses Fangraphs' version. As you can see, the Royals clearly came out ahead in 2013, but depending on which WAR you prefer it was either just 0.4 wins or 4.2 wins ahead. Let's split the difference and say the Royals were 2.3 wins better because of the trade. In 2014, we find that according to bWAR the Royals are actually 1.6 WAR worse because of the trade, while fWAR says they are 0.2 wins better. Again let's split the difference and say they are 1.4 wins worse because of the trade. 

Really based off the above totals, no matter how you slice it, it is hard to argue that the Royals were much better off over the past two seasons due to the acquiring of James Shields and Wade Davis. In fact, based off of our midway points, the Royals actually were just 0.9 wins better over the last year and a half, thanks to the trade. I doubt this is what Royals officials had in mind when they pulled the trigger on the trade that would send their top prospect to Tampa Bay.

Unfortunately for Royals fans it gets worse. As you can see in the above tables, there is also a dollar figure included. This represents in millions how much the Royals paid for the players. In 2013, the Royals spent $10.8 million more for the bottom group and in 2014 the total jumped to $18.75 million more. My guess is that this difference could have been spent on the free agent market to acquire an additional win over the last year and a half, which would have made the top grouping better even in the short run. 

Fortunately, there is a way that we can consider the monetary implications in our evaluation. In 2013, Fangraphs valued each win at approximately $5 million. If we multiply that by the WAR total for each set and add in the difference in money to the alternate universe scenario, the Myers led Royals squad boasts an average over $23.05 million in value between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs to $23.75 million for the Shields version (approximately 0.1 win). This obviously is a slight edge to the Shields led Royals. However, the 2014 averages favor the Myers led squad $54.1 million to $26.65 million (roughly 4.6 wins).

Clearly, the Royals were willing to sacrifice the long term to push the envelope in the short term. Unfortunately, based off these numbers the Royals have lost tremendously in the short run as well. Even if we discount each year following 2013, the numbers are going to be staggeringly one sided when this set of trades is evaluated. To close, let me just give you an update on the other guys the Royals gave up that have yet to contribute at the Major League level. 

Patrick Leonard: Hitting .298/.386/.521 in 76 games with Tampa Bay's High A team. His 12 homers would be tied for third most in the Royals organization. He is 21 years old.

Mike Montgomery: 3.28 ERA in 85 innings with Triple A Durham (most hitter friendly park in league). He leads the International League in FIP and SIERA. Still just 24 years old. 

Kyle Smith: Has pitched 78.1 innings between the Astros High-A and Double A teams. Currently has a 3.56 ERA, is striking out 10.23 per 9 innings and walking just 2.64. He is also 21 years old.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

Royals Rank 9th in Under 25 Talent

Yesterday, the writers at Baseball Prospectus unveiled their annual under 25 talent rankings. The Royals ranked 8th among all teams and their top ten featured four Major Leaguers and six prospects. Top on the list was first baseman Eric Hosmer.

The Royals were the top ranked team in the American League Central. The Twins followed at 13, then the White Sox at 18, Indians at 25 and Tigers at 27. Overall the Royals continue to boast youthfulness and plenty of high upside talent. According to C.J. Whittmann, eac of the Royals prospects that appear on the list boast 60 grades or higher.

Ranking just behind the Royals at 9th overall was the Tampa Bay Rays. As you would imagine, Wil Myers topped the list. Former Royals farmhand Jake Odorizzi came in at 5th.

I am always interested to see Baseball Prospectus's take on the top under 25 organization rankings. I think it serves as a different perspective than the farm system rankings that we see from Baseball America. However, an age 25 cut off does seem a bit arbitrary. I'd be interested to see talent rankings for players with less than 3 years of service time. I think this would provide an excellent snapshot of how much low cost talent each organization has. Maybe someday, there will be a ranking that looks at young talent in this regard.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

Wildcard Wade Wants to Start

After the signing of Bruce Chen, I don't think I was alone in assuming that the final rotation spot would come down to either Yordano Ventura or Danny Duffy. Of course, I knew that a few other names would be thrown out as candidates: Brad Penny, Chris Dwyer, Luke Hochevar, Wade Davis, and Kyle Zimmer. Despite most of us believing that Hochevar and Davis will figure in as bullpen components, both are making buzz about their focus on reclaiming roles in the rotation. On Friday, Fox Sports writer Jeffrey Flanagan brought us some quotes from Davis on the subject. 

"I'm definitely going in to start. I hope I get the opportunity to pitch and help this team win a lot of ballgames. I'm ready, probably more so than I ever have been."

When Wade Davis was acquired in conjunction with James Shields last winter, many pointed to Davis as the wild card of the deal. Defendants of the trade also were quick to cite Wildcard Wade's contract status when the Shields portion of the deal was criticized due to his two years of control. Unlike Shields, Davis came with two guaranteed seasons, plus three team options for 2015-17.

The problem with these options is that they really are only economically viable if Davis is logging his innings as a member of the team's rotation. It is likely for this reason that the Royals were so patient with Davis as a starter in 2013. Despite posting a 5.67 ERA as a starter, Davis was somehow able to hold down a rotation spot for 24 starts, and was not moved to relief duty until September.

There is a very slight possibility that Davis wasn't as bad in 2013, as his numbers would indicate. Afterall, his FIP was just 4.18, which compares quite favorably to his 5.32 ERA. This discrepancy largely stems from his .361 BABIP against. However, when plugging in his batted ball frequencies to an expected BABIP calculator, you'll find that the number isn't that much different than the BABIP that was actually posted against him. This is mainly due to opponents posting a 27.5% LD% against the former Rays farmhand. Fangraphs' tERA, which estimates ERA with batted ball data, says that his ERA should have been 5.42.

According to Troy Renck, beat writer for the Denver Post, the Royals and Rockies were discussing a deal that would have sent Wade Davis to Colorado in exchange for outfielder Dexter Fowler. If this is true then the Royals probably were very open to moving Davis throughout the offseason. Unfortunately, they were unable to find a match for a trade. Since it is hard to imagine the Royals contending and going through the Wade Davis starter experience again, it is unlikely that reliever Wade Davis will justify a $7 million option for 2015.

When the Royals acquired Wildcard Wade they likely hoped that they were acquiring a solid mid rotation starter for the next five seasons. If Davis could have been this it would have greatly helped to justify the Wil Myers trade. Regrettably, the former 3rd round pick has failed to transition into a useful rotation piece and as a result a year from now, the Royals will likely have only one compensation draft pick to show for their blue chip prospect.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams

How I Imagine the Wil Myers Trade Went Down

On Monday, August 26^th, the Royals will play a day game against the Tampa Bay Rays, and the elephant in the room will be the Rookie of the Year candidate playing right field for the opposition: Wil Myers.

It is going to be an awkward moment for Royals management and an awkward moment for fans as well. I suspect Wil Myers will get a standing ovation when his name is announced the first time … and the second time … and probably the third and fourth times as well. After all, he was a transcendent talent that did one thing really well: hitting. But while the Royals sucked at both pitching and hitting, they decided the first was more important and thus traded away the gem of the farm system for a good pitcher, a bad pitcher, and a utility player that was recently designated for assignment. Meanwhile, Myers is hitting .312/.364/.488. As fellow RR writer, Landon Adams, put it to me in a conversation a little while back, “we basically traded Ryan Braun.”

That fateful evening that the Royals traded Myers will live on in infamy in Kansas City, and in honor of Myers return to Kaufmann, I am writing about how I imagined the trade went down. Not from a fan perspective, but from Dayton Moore’s and Andrew Friedman’s conversation; or at least how I imagine their conversation happened.

Here is the Wil Myers trade:

***

It was a dark and cold December evening in St. Petersburg, where Andrew Friedman, General Manager of the Tampa Bay Rays, sat and waited by the phone. He had his council of advisors, but like with all personnel decisions, he was the final voice. But on this night, his voice was doubtful.

This was an odd occurrence. Friedman was known for being calm and cool under pressure. This level-headedness was what brought the Rays out of the cellar and into perennial contention in baseball’s toughest division. And although the Rays had found success as of late, the payroll discrepancy is the division is so vast, even the most efficiently constructed roster on the Rays budget is an underdog to the sea of money their competition has.

No one could expect the Red Sox to suck again like they had in 2012, and the Yankees are the Yankees. But even the Orioles had made the playoffs last season, and the Blue Jays had gone all in, trading away the farm for players a few hours south of St. Pete and some more for a Cy Young winner. The AL East wasn’t getting any easier, and if the Rays hoped to compete, they needed hitting. Unfortunately, good, young power hitters didn’t just grow on trees.

But they could be traded to you. And willingly.

Friedman had just returned from Winter Meetings, and while there, Dayton Moore, the GM of the Royals, had brought up a trade proposal that could send the best hitting prospect in minor league baseball to the Rays for a surplus of pitching that was expendable. Wil Myers, the highest ranked prospect by Baseball America, was BEING OFFERED to him. That’s why Friedman’s voice was so full of doubt when he spoke.

No one is that stupid.

Maybe stupidity had nothing to do with it, however. Moore was on the hot seat in Kansas City, and maybe he felt like he needed to do something big, if not desperate, to put the Royals over the top for a postseason run. While this strategy would be considered a fire-able offense with the Rays, it was standard operating procedure for the team with the longest postseason drought in American sports. And Friedman was crossing his fingers, hoping that he could be the recipient of Kansas City’s impatience.

And then, all of a sudden, the phone rang. Friedman was so deep in thought about the possibility of Evan Longoria and Myers in the same lineup that the phone call actually startled him for a moment. He quickly collected himself, and looked over at the caller I.D. The area code wasn’t local, and he knew this was it. After a deep breath, Friedman ran his fingers through his hair and thought, “Let’s take him for everything he’s got.”

“This is Andrew Friedman speaking.”

“Andrew, this is Dayton Moore with the Kansas City Royals. You were expecting my phone call, correct?”

“Yes Dayton, I wouldn’t have missed it for the world.”

“Good. Now let’s get down to business,” said Moore. Friedman couldn’t agree more. Full of doubt seconds ago, wondering if Moore hadn’t just been pulling his chain, here he was, speaking to the one man in baseball that thought trading the number one prospect in baseball was a solid move for the future of his team. Christmas had come early.

“We need pitching. I feel we are VERY close to competing in the next year or two if we can just stabilize our rotation. We have good, young hitters on the corners that we project should continue to develop this season into some of the best in the league. We have a fantastic outfield defensively, anchored by one of the best in the game, Jeff Francouer. And our bullpen is lights out. What we need is starting pitching, and you guys down there somehow have too many. So what do you say about a straight swap of Wil Myers for James Shields?”

There it was, out in the open. The trade that seemed impossible of a player that should have been untouchable. The Royals were willing to sacrifice SIX YEARS of team control for TWO YEARS of James Shields. Well, if Moore was willing to sacrifice him, what else would he sacrifice?

“Sorry Dayton, but Wil who?”

“Wil Myers. Our top prospect. He plays right field. Used to be a catcher. I think Baseball America really likes him. Hit .314/.387/.600 with 37 home runs and 109 RBI between AA and AAA. You know Wil Myers don’t you?!”

“Oh yeah, Wil Myers. Yeah, I’ve heard of him. But there’s no way we can trade BIG GAME JAMES for some unproven minor league player. I mean, this is BIG GAME JAMES! The leader of the rotation. The fire behind the engine. The wind beneath our wings. Myers is just some guy that hits good in a hitter’s league. We’d be taking a big risk in doing that. I just don’t see that trade being in the best interests of my ball club.”

“Well shucks Andrew, I think Myers is a pretty good player.”

“I mean, he MIGHT be, but BIG GAME JAMES IS a good player.”

“I guess you’re right Andrew, I just don’t know what to do … I draft all these players and they turn out to not be very good and all the fans are mad at me and the owner is breathing down my neck. I just don’t know why none of the pitchers I draft don’t work out …”

The conversation was then interrupted by intense sobbing on the other end of the phone, and Friendman looked befuddled. Never, in all his years of baseball, had he ever heard a man start crying on the other end of the phone. He kind of felt bad for Moore now, but not bad enough to pop the brakes on what could be the greatest trade in his franchise’s history (and they’re the ones that traded Delmon Young).

“Now, now Dayton, it’s alright, it’s gonna be alright. In fact, I think I have a counter offer for you that could work out REAL well for the Royals.”

“Wha, wha, what’s that [sniffle]?”

“What would you say if I traded you TWO starting pitchers?”

“Well I’d say you had yourself a God [expletive] deal!”

“All it would take was for you to trade me Myers and then a couple of minor league pitchers. I don’t know your system too well but … [Friedman motions to one of his council members to hand him a sheet with the Royals top prospects and their corresponding stats. Two look particularly interesting. Could he really pull this off? Absolutely.] how does Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery sound?”

“That sounds fantastic! So would Shields be one of the starting pitchers I got?”

“Yeah Dayton, I’m trying to do you a favor pal! I’ll give you Shields and one of our best young pitchers, Wade Davis. And if you were wondering why we had moved him to the bullpen and out of the rotation, it was because he was so good at pitching, we just couldn’t afford to have him pitch just every fifth day. We wanted available game in and game out.”

“That makes a lot of sense! I could learn so much from you!”

Well you’re catching on pretty quick at this whole bending over thing, thought Friedman.

“You know what, just to sweeten the deal, I even think I’ll throw in a player to be named later. That’s how much I like you Dayton.”

“Andrew, I don’t know how to thank you. Hopefully it’s that Elliott Johnson guy. He looks like a real Royal.”

“Whatever you want Dayton, whatever you want.”

“There’s just one thing I’d like to ask of you Drew.”

“It’s Andrew.”

“Oh, sorry! There’s just one thing I’d like to ask of you Andrew. We play each other early next year, so could you possibly not bring Myers up from the minors until we’re done playing each other?”

This was going to be tough to swallow. An impact bat like Myers was needed immediately in the lineup, but if this was going to cause a snag in the trade, waiting a couple of months for Myers services was worth it. Besides, if they waited just enough time, they could control Myers in Tampa even longer. Yes, he was willing to accept this condition. Besides, there was always the chance a game could be rained out in Kansas City earlier in the season and Myers could play against his former organization in, say, August.

“Dayton, you have yourself a deal.”

“Oh, thank heavens! I’ll sign the paper work as soon as I can and fax it over. The fans in Kansas City are going to LOVE this!”

“That’s because you’re the best in the business Dayton! It was a pleasure doing business with you.”

And with that, Friedman hung up the phone, and his perfect night was complete. He had just acquired a franchise-changing player, and the Rays had the chance to continue competing in the toughest division. This was why Friedman, and not Moore, was the best in the business. And although his acumen had been written about by Jonah Keri in the book “The Extra 2%,” tonight, it felt more like 200%.

And that’s why books aren’t written about Kansas City front offices. 

Not Exactly an Indictment

#Rays not impressed by #Royals' player-development approach. Say OF Wil Myers needs to learn to be "complete player." bit.ly/XXfL6p

— Bob Dutton (@Royals_Report) February 27, 2013

You can read the story to which Bob Dutton was referring here. Of course, when I read the above tweet, I couldn't wait to read a bunch of juicy quotes about the Rays belief in their superior player development system. Like many I was intrigued to have the opportunity to hear an organization compare their development strategies to that of our Kansas City Royals. However, instead of these types of quotes front Tampa Bay's scouting and player development department, I found a story with five quotes from Joe Maddon and four from... Matt Joyce?

Really?

Matt Joyce makes comments about Tampa's player development strategy and the Rays are not impressed by the Royals player development approach?

I mean, in all seriousness, why would Matt Joyce have any motivation to comment on Myers ability to be a complete player?

As for Maddon's quotes, he does make one comment where he states that he would like Myers to improve on his defense and base running. He even states that he needs to improve on things that he "may not have been pushed to do in the past." Not exactly a shot at the Royals player development model.

Quite frankly, we shouldn't expect Maddon to say anything different when asked about Myers. Of course Rays personnel are going to pick out things that Myers need to improve on. It is no secret they want him to begin the year in Triple-A Durham. The obvious is reason is that they want to game his service clock, although I do think they are sincere in their belief that midseason call ups are better for young players.

Listen, I've seen Myers play outfield defense on quite a few occasions. It wasn't pretty. I've seen him look pretty awful on the bases too. I don't disagree with the Rays feelings that he needs to improve in these areas. Let's not pretend Ned Yost wouldn't be making the same sort of comments. These comments aren't the Rays indictment of the Royals development strategies. These comments are simply preparing everyone for Myers inevitable demotion to Durham.

Poll Results: Who will the Myers-Shields trade end up helping the most?

In Royal Revival's most recent poll, we asked the readers "Who will the Myers-Shields trade end up helping the most? It was a simple question, with just two choices and after a couple of weeks worth of voting the results finished dead even at 23 votes a piece for the Royals and Rays.

Obviously, the vast majority of our readers are Royals fans, so typically I would expect a slight lean toward the Royals in the results of the trade. However, after the open criticism of the trade from some in the Royals community it doesn't surprise me that the results finished in this manner. In fact, I am a little surprised that more of our readers didn't favor the Tampa Bay Rays in this poll question.

While in most trades, the final results of the trade aren't determined for seasons in advance, this trade will likely receive a grade in two years. In my mind, if James Shields and Wade Davis elevate the Royals to legitimate contention, I think this trade was a win for the Royals. Winning is the goal of sports, and even if Myers develops into a superstar, this trade is a win for me if the Royals reach the playoffs within the next couple of seasons.

The difficult and ironic part of this trade, is the way in which the fan base, which has bee told repeatedly to trust the process, feels as though the front office stopped trusting the process. Dayton Moore contends that it was the perfect time to strike and that the idea that he made the move to try and save his job is ludicrous. I hope this is the truth.

There is no doubt that this trade could severely hurt the Royals. If you think the selection of the Luke Hochevar pick has been second guessed, just imagine what will happen if Wil Myers turns into Ryan Braun. However, while I may have my doubts about the trade, I am excited for 2013. For the first time in my life, the "what if" list isn't a long one in order for the Royals to play meaningful games in September. When is the last time that we have been witness to those?

When Friedman Stole Christmas

Okay, I am the other writer for Royal Revival that has been chosen to spill his thoughts on the Myers-Shields trade.  While Damion Mandalas looked at a few of the positives and tried to see both sides, I am just going to react on how I really think this trade panned out for us as Royal Nation.

I will always remember last night, it could very well define my childhood love of the Kansas City Royals.  December 9th, 2012.  It was a cold, chilly night; I was sitting by the fire watching the Dark Knight rises when all of a sudden, I clicked the Twitter app on my iPhone only to find that Andrew Friedman had been lurking in the shadows waiting to pounce on his prey.  Okay, I'll quit this theatrical thing I got going on, but really I was freaking out.  In fact, when I saw the possible trade I got that bad feeling in your stomach when you think you're about to puke.  This couldn't be true. Remember during the Winter Meetings when these rumors were going on? And they passed through?  Surely that would be the case this time.  No, this rumor seemed different, tons of analysts were reporting this rumor and tons were saying it could be done shortly.

After an hour or two of frantically panicking about us trading what some Royals fans called the "Last Hope" Wil Myers.  It was complete.  It was the worst text notification I have ever received from ESPN.  I just stared at it.  No words could come out.  That initial reaction was only seeing that we had traded Wil Myers and other prospects for James Shields and Wade Davis.  I was sick just seeing that, but when it came out that we had also given Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery AND Patrick Leonard.  I knew that Andrew Friedman had struck again.  I have two friends of mine that are Rays fans.  They are actually brothers, and I joke with them all the time saying "The Royals aren't smart enough to play with Friedman".  Now there is actually some evidence to that statement.

This trade made me sick.  It was a desperation move by a desperate General Manager who hasn't done squat in his tenure with the Royals.  What the heck is he doing?  We clearly overpaid for James Shields.  Those two Rays fans will tell you the same, and I am as big of a James Shields fan as they come. I've always loved this guy.  However, we gave up way too much for possibly (probably) only two years of "Big Game James".  I was happy that Yordano Ventura and Kyle Zimmer weren't involved in the trade because I like them both better than Odorizzi and Montgomery but still, trading our Minor League Player of the year for a guy that we will probably only have for two years doesn't make sense to me at all.

I'm not a huge Jake Odorizzi fan but I definitely think he could turn out to be a solid 2-3 SP in the big leagues.  I don't know how Friedman got us to put him in the trade but whatever he said to sweet talk more really worked.  Mike Montgomery going doesn't rile me up as much, because he has just disappointed me the last two seasons.  I loved this guy and thought he was going to be a STUD.  I still think he has more upside than Odorizzi does, he just needs someone to tap into it.  The scary thing to me is I think the Rays will tap into his potential.  It makes me cringe that the Rays possibly could have one of the best hitters in the majors in Wil Myers and if Montgomery reaches his potential then they could possibly have one of the best pitchers as well.

Now that I have been through all of the negatives to this trade and why I don't think it was a smart move by the Royals; lets go through some WHAT IF scenarios.

If I would have wrote this post last night, this paragraph would not have been included.  I was too upset, and just pissed off at what Dayton Moore had done.  I was among those on the Royals Twitterverse that were just going crazy tweeting how stupid I thought we were and retweeting other people that were saying the same thing.  After a good nights sleep, I have thought through some things.  This trade maybe, just maybe could turn out to be a decent trade for Royals fans.  Just think, WHAT IF we do indeed advance to the playoffs in the next 2 seasons? WHAT IF James Shields leads us to an ALDS?  How much fun would that be?  Throughout my 20 years of being a Royals fan I have never once seen a playoff team or even sniff contention most years.  Now we have no excuses, we pushed the chips all in.  Dayton can say that these next two seasons aren't "playoffs or bust" seasons but they are.  Royal nation is aching for a winner, and now you made the big move.  It's time for us to make the transition to being a playoff team.  WHAT IF we do make the playoffs in the next two seasons or so, how fun would that be?  I don't know, I have never been a part of it.  However, I'm sure it would feel a heck of a lot better than consistently losing 90-100 games and watching Luke Hochevar take the mound on opening day.

I will end this post with one tweet I said last night, that drew some response from Royals fans.  I said I have been going to Opening Day for the last 8 years or so and not once have I seen an above average SP on the hill for us.  This year I can finally be there on Opening Day when we do have a stud who can beat anyone on any given day.

That is a step in the right direction, like I said I was unbelievably negative about this yesterday.  I still hate the trade but the chips are all in so we as fans might as well go all in too.  "Big Game James," you have a great opportunity to bring a winner to a city starving for one. I truly hope you embrace this challenge.

Playing Devil's Advocate on the Big Trade

At some point in the near future, another Royal Revival writer will put up his thoughts on the trade that sent James Shields, Wade Davis and a Player to be Named Later to Kansas City for Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard. For now, you are stuck with some of my thoughts on the subject.

There are a couple of ways that teams can go about roster construction. For the Tampa Bay Rays, they operate on the mantra of having one eye on the present with one eye on the future. The Rays are pretty unique in this regard, viewing players as assets while constantly trying to stockpile for the long term. The Oakland Athletics are another team that operates in this type of fashion.

The opposite approach is the idea that a team has to go for a window. Teams like the Reds, Brewers, Giants and Cardinals tend to take this type of approach, using prospects as fodder to net Major League pieces in order to contend when the possibility exists. There isn't necessarily a right or wrong way and their are pros and cons to both approaches.

Using an asset compiling approach, the Tampa Bay Rays have been able to average 91 wins per season over the last 5 years. At the same time, the Rays have been criticized for not dealing from their pitching surplus to acquire offense and the Rays have advanced to the World Series just once. The Giants and Cardinals have taken a much different approach. Both of these organizations have seized opportunities and as a result have combined to win the last three World Series titles.

As much as I personally love the Rays way of doing business, I always knew that Dayton Moore was a window guy and as the 2012 off-season has played out it was inevitable that Dayton Moore would deal from his farm system in an attempt to improve in the present.

It appears, that Dayton Moore has marked his window. With the addition of James Shields many have said that Dayton Moore has sent a clear message to the American League that the Royals are ready to contend. Those same individuals rationalize that unless the Royals truly believe that they can contend, why would they pull the trigger on such a move. Of course, what isn't being considered here is that it is just as likely that the Royals front office felt as though they had to contend as opposed to that they would contend.

The ultimate fear in this deal is that Dayton Moore stretched himself because he is feeling the heat. As a result, he sacrificed far too much of the long term in favor of the present. Ultimately, the Royals traded what accounts for 24 seasons of team control for about 7 seasons. This is not to say the deal is clearly a bad one for Kansas City, in fact, I am amazed by the group think of the Royals Twitterverse.

Do I like the trade? No, I do not. However, it is amazing to me how an entire fanbase can achieve such singularity in thought on Twitter. Maybe this is because the trade is so obviously bad for Kansas City. More likely, there is so much pessimism and peer pressure among the Royals fan base that people are afraid to voice opinions contrary to what the so called experts think.

Once again, let me just state that I am not a fan of this trade. If I was in Dayton Moore's shoes, there is no way I would have pulled the trigger. However, I have always thought it is important to see both sides to any trade. For that reason, I am going to play a little devil's advocate for the remainder of this post.

Let's start with the most obvious point. James Shields is a damn good pitcher. In seven professional seasons he has compiled 25.3 fWAR, while logging over 200 innings in six straight seasons and posting a career ERA of 3.89. He will turn 31 in ten days and for three straight seasons has recorded over 8 K/9 while allowing just over 2 BB/9. Oh and by the way, over the past three seasons Shields has witnessed his fly ball percentage drop 9%. In 2012, for the first time in his career he recorded a ground ball percentage over 50%. If this trend continues, Shields represents that rare pitcher that not only has a strong K:BB, but also induces a solid amount of ground balls.

Contrary to what Ken Rosenthal might say, Shields is not an ace. However, there is no reason to be ashamed of having him front your team's rotation. To put it simply, anyone that is attempting to degrade this trade by bashing James Shields is ignorant of what this pitcher has accomplished throughout his career.

The other piece coming to Kansas City is Wade Davis. In his first full two seasons, Wade Davis was a pretty mediocre starting pitcher. In 2012, he threw 70 innings out of the Rays bullpen and saw his K/9 sky rocket to 11.1. The keys to Davis transition to the bullpen were the ways in which his slider and curve ball both became weapons to put away hitters. According to Fangraphs, Davis's slider rated at 4.8 runs above average, while his curve ball registered at 6.7.

The key to this trade, will be Davis's ability to translate those weapons from the bullpen into a starting job. It goes without being said that if Davis can continue to strike out hitters at his 2012 rate, he is clearly a front of the rotation piece. More likely there will be regression. If Davis can simply maintain a K rate around 7-8, while keeping his walks around 3 per 9, the Royals will have found themselves a three starter.

It may be oversimplifying matters, but whether or not Davis can keep a plus slider and curve ball in the rotation may determine if this trade is a long term win or loss for Kansas City. Davis is currently signed to guaranteed money in in 2013 and 2014 at $2.8 and $4.8 million respectively. He then has team options for $7 million, $8 million, and $10 million. Yes, the Royals have five years of team control on Davis. However, unless he can be a valuable member of the rotation, his price tag will be too high to warrant the exercising of those options.

Finally, let's get into the prospects involved. What is unfortunate, is that each of these four pieces are good prospects and it isn't hard to imagine each of them making Kansas City regret the deal on their own merit. However, there is also an overvaluation of prospects in baseball today.

According to some reports, many Royals officials view Myers as more of a Nick Markakis type than a Ryan Braun type. Also, there is a reasoning that it is much easier to find production in right field than it is to find front of the rotation pitchers. I expect Myers to have a very strong career, but it isn't a lock that he is going to be a superstar.

I've actually grown a bit bored with Jake Odorizzi and according to some the Royals don't view him in the same class of prospects as Kyle Zimmer or Yordano Ventura. In fact, several recent scouting reports slot him in as a 3/4 type, rather than the 2 starter that many of us were hoping for. Once again, I like Odorizzi. I think he is going to be a valuable piece in a big league rotation, but the upside isn't what we once thought it was. His fastball is straight and he currently is lacking an out pitch to make him a front end guy at the Major League level.

Mike Montgomery might be the most interesting piece of this entire trade. I can't wait to see if Tampa is able to bring out some of that promise. I am already preparing myself for Montgomery's breakout campaign. Royals fans will complain and rightly so, but at this point it is hard to imagine him ever taking this sort of step in the Royals organization.

Finally, there is Patrick Leonard. Leonard has excellent power and JJ Cooper even pinned him as a guy to watch moving forward for the Royals system. Ultimately, he is four years away and it makes sense to include him to get a deal like this done.

There is a good chance that the Kansas City Royals will rue the day when this trade was conducted. Myers could become a superstar, Odorizzi could throw 200 innings annually, and Montgomery could find that potential. Of course, there is also the chance that Myers isn't the superstar we all hoped, that Odorizzi doesn't have the stuff to be a mid rotation type, and that Montgomery will never live up to his once awesome potential.

Ultimately, even if the former of those things happen, there is no reason this trade can't be a win-win for both parties. The Royals haven't made the playoffs since 1985. If, by chance, the Royals do make the playoffs in 2013, should we complain? Does that make the trade a win for Kansas City?

This trade may have literally made me sick, but I've been a Royals fan for twenty years. Never in my life has Kauffman Stadium hosted playoff baseball. It is natural for Royals fans to critique moves. Every fan base should do it and it is irresponsible to not consider the implications of transactions, even if they make the current team better.

With that being said, I can't help but imagine James Shields toeing the rubber on Opening Day and I long for the summer when the Royals are actually playing meaningful games in August and dare I say September. I always attempt to evaluate moves from an analytical perspective, but first and foremost I am a fan, damn it. This trade may be incredibly costly to the Royals future, but they believe in a window and for the first time in my life they aren't just paying lip service to winning now.

Myers Makes Start at Third

Interesting note today in Northwest Arkansas, where Wil Myers will make his first professional start at third base. Of late Myers had been playing center field and it seemed as though reviews were positive. Last season Myers was criticized for not taking to the switch from catcher to right field with the enthusiasm that one would have liked to see.

A couple of weeks ago I was actually told that the Royals front office had discussed moving Myers to third base for the 2012. season. It seemed strange to me and my best rationalization was that Myers' personality didn't fit in the outfield. I assumed the Royals were trying to find a position that could keep him more mentally involved in the game. 

The problem is that the Royals already have Mike Moustakas at third. It doesn't make much sense to move Myers to the position when as an outfielder the opportunity would be greater for him to reach the Major League level. Perhaps, the Royals are just trying to improve Myers versatility, something I can't fault. However, if he already is learning a new skill in the outfield why put something else on to his plate? 

It is strange that the Royals have a kid that is often praised for his athleticism. It is often assumed he will make a smooth transition to the outfield as a result. But here we are trying to find a position for the guy. I'm not going to get worked up over Wil Myers making a start at third base. I'm interested to see how the situation plays out, and I'm intrigued to see the Royals rationale behind it. 

One more thing I'll note, just because the thought crossed my mind. Third base is theoretically a more difficult position to play than right. The Royals should eventually be able to transition him back to the outfield at some point with ease. Maybe they feel as though Myers can handle third and are giving him the opportunity to prove it in a way to boost his value by adding versatility. Just a thought.

Prospect Countdown: #1 Wil Myers

#1 Wil Myers


Age: 21
Position: RF
Height: 6-3
Weight: 205
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted in the 3rd Round of the 2009 Amateur Draft
From: High Point, NC




Entering the 2012 draft, Wil Myers was considered a clear first round talent. Some mock drafts had him going as high as the early teens, while most had him going to the Red Sox late in the first round. Instead Myers $2 million asking price scared off teams as he began to slide in the draft. Eventually, in the third round the Royals nabbed Myers and agreed to pay him his demands.

Myers began his professional career as a catcher. After an awesome 2010 campaign the Royals decided that his bat was just too advanced to be held back by a glove that still needed a ton of work. Another consideration was likely Salvador Perez's emergence as a legitimate catching prospect. The Royals hoped that not only would a move to right field allow Myers to reach the Majors faster, but they also hoped that the transition would keep him healthier throughout what they envisioned to be a long and a productive career.

Unfortunately, 2011 proved to play out quite differently than the Royals anticipated. Myers didn't receive the position change with the ease that many expected. At times he struggled and would look lost in the outfield, and at other times he was criticized for being indifferent to the position change. Low energy and not going after balls with a desire to prove that he belonged in the outfield.

Myers season took a turn for the worst, when he injured his knee on a rainy night while returning to his apartment. The injury caused a gash that required stitches and eventually would become infected. In total the injury kept Myers out of action for roughly a month, and you have to wonder how much of his poor results were a result of the incident.

I say poor results, only because of their relevance to our expectations for Wil Myers. In actuality, Myers' 2011 numbers weren't anything to be ashamed of his .746 OPS was basically league average for the circuit and when you consider that he was the third youngest player in the Texas League behind only Jonathan Villar and Mike Trout you understand how impressive of a player he is.

Myers resolidified his standing as one of the top hitting prospects in the game, though, with an excellent showing in the Arizona Fall League. In the AFL, Myers blistered the competition to the tune of a .360/.481/.674 line. Also, of note were the comments of Myers improved outfield defense. AFL numbers have small sample written all over them, but the strong performance reaffirmed why we are all so excited for this kid.

Myers continues to project as a plus hitter that projects for 20-25 home runs annually. He has average speed and his arm is a weapon in right field. He'll open the season in Northwest Arkansas, and thanks to the Royals have both their corner outfielders under team control for at least two more years there is no reason to rush Myers. For now he is the heir apparent for Jeff Francoeur and could force the Royals hand sooner rather than later.

Picture taken from MiLB.com

Winter Meetings: Day 1 Round Up

So here are some quick hits of the Royals rumors today:

1. Royals are one of five teams interested in Carlos Guillen. This would have to come real cheap, and since Guillen wouldn't even be a viable back up for Escobar, I'm just not sure how this fits. Looking at the market, I'm beginning to think that Navarro presents the best blend of versatility and bat skill for our bench. It just becomes a matter of how important for the organization to have him playing everyday.

2. Royals are dangling Soria and Holland for pitching, but are asking for a lot. The Royals have every right to be asking for a lot, even considering last season, Soria has been one of the top closers in baseball and still has an incredibly favorable contract. Holland of course is under team control for five more seasons after dominating in 2011.

3. Royals are aggressively pursuing starting pitching and are talking with the Athletics about Gio Gonzalez. I haven't heard of any specific names from the Royals end, but I would imagine the Athletics are demanding a lot in return. For me my interest in Gio hinges on the Athletics demand. I don't include Myers, but a package involving one of either Odorizzi or Montgomery, Colon and a lower level guy like Eibner, Bonifacio, Ventura, Yambati, or Adam would make sense to me, but I'd imagine wouldn't for the Athletics.

4. Royals have also kicked tires on Jeremy Guthrie. As is case with everyone greatly depends on cost. I think Guthrie's numbers would improve should he be dealt to Kansas City, however, with a cursory glance over his numbers I'm not convinced we'd be adding anything more than a #3. Quite frankly we've got plenty of potential #3s.

5. Royals have scouted Cuban Yoenis Cespedes. To be clear, Dayton Moore basically said he would likely fall way out of the Royals price range, but there is a precedent for the Royals shocking the industry on the Cuban market. If the Royals do love Cespedes, and are concerned with Cain... well... yeah, I'd still be shocked if we landed Cespedes.

6. The Royals and Rays have discussed Shields, with Rays seeking a return of Soria, Myers, and Colon. In trades for guys like Shields, teams typically have to give up a centerpiece, quality player, and one or two complimentary pieces. My problem with this trade is that the Royals would be giving up too much. Soria is an elite closer on a team friendly deal, Myers is a blue chip prospect, and Christian Colon was the #4 overall selection in the 2010 draft. But don't forget, it is rare for teams to actually get the haul that they initially demand. Just because the Rays are seeking that package, doesn't mean that the Royals would have give up that to obtain Big Game James. We'll just have to wait and see.

Poll Results: How Will Royals Acquire Starter?

In the latest Royal Revival poll I asked How the Royals will acquire their front line starter? Here are the results:

They won't acquire one - 14 votes (18%)
Trade - 39 votes (54%)
Free Agency - 11 votes (14%)
Posting System - 10 votes (13%)

Earlier today CBS Sports predicted the Royals to land C.J. Wilson for 5 years and $80 million. Later ESPN reported that the Royals had been in discussions regarding Jair Jurrjens. Trade talks involved Wil Myers and Lorenzo Cain.

Personally I don't think the Royals would move Myers unless for a legitimate number 1. Jurrjens absolutely doesn't do it for me in that regard. However, if the Royals could acquire Jurrjens for Lorenzo Cain and a couple of lower level guys and the Royals could find an explanation for Jurrjens dip in velocity in 2011, I would consider the deal.

Jurrjens improves the rotation, that is clear. However, I don't believe he is the game changer the Royals are looking for. Due to this reason I wouldn't include any of the system's elite prospects to bring Jurrjens to Kansas City.

It wouldn't be the end of the world for the Royals to stand pat this off season. It isn't what the fans want, but it would allow the organization another year to evaluate what they have. Also, the Royals wouldn't have to overspend on the trade or free agent markets when they are likely not quite ready to contend anyway.

Don't force your hand and hurt yourself long term. The organization has made it this far and put themselves in a good position through patience and faith. Don't blow that now.

Francoeur Extended

In case you haven't heard or didn't see it coming from miles away the Royals elected to extend Jeff Francoeur earlier this morning. Francoeur was the only of the three Royals outfielders that weren't already under team control for next season. Considering management's infatuation with him, the fact that Frenchy is having a good season by league standards, and how Francoeur clearly would love to be back in Kansas City for Mission 2012.

Francoeur, who will make $2.5 million this season, had a mutual option for 2012 for $4 million. Now though he is signed to a two year extension that will be worth a total of $13.5 million. Is anyone really surprised?

So what does this extension mean? First let's just examine if Francouer is worth the amount of money the Royals will be paying him over the next couple of seasons. At this point in time, the fine people at Fangraphs believe that each Win Above Replacement is worth about $4.4 million (roughly).

So far this season according to Fangraphs Jeff Francoeur is worth 2.3 WAR, meaning that he has been worth $10.1 million on the open market. Obviously these figures are debatable. However, Fangraphs does its best to provide a dollar figure for player's values and that is the best we have to go on at the moment.

So if this market value continue to hold true, Jeff Francoeur will need to produce 3.1 WAR over the next two seasons in order to achieve fair value for the contract. Over his career Frenchy has averaged being worth 1.5 WAR a season. However, over the past three seasons that figure drops to just 1.1 WAR.

As Joe Pawlikowski displays in this article, Jeff Francoeur numbers this season do not appear to be an outlier compared to the rest of his career. Instead his offensive numbers seem to have remained consistent while the rest of the league has regressed. What this has done for Francoeur is turn his below average offensive production and turned it into above average. When you consider that Francoeur is twenty-seven and entering his prime years it isn't outrageous at all to suggest for the next couple of seasons he could at least be as good offensively as he has been in 2011.

On the low end, let's say Frenchy regresses to his three year average in WAR production and only contributes a total of 2.2 WAR over the next two seasons. If that happens he will be worth a 9.7 million dollar deal. Should he contribute 4.6 WAR and keep up his play at 2011 standards, he would be worth $20.2 million.

I suppose this is a long way of saying that based on the figures for the contract Jeff Francoeur could very well wind up being paid more than what he is worth. However, just as likely he could be a bargain for the next couple of seasons. I believe Rany said it best after the extension today (and I am paraphrasing here) how often can a time sign an outfielder entering his prime with the kind of tools that Jeff Francoeur has for this kind of money?

I am not willing to call this a bargain for the Royals, but it would appear that they have paid pretty fair market price for their charismatic right fielder. If you are a believer in the intangibles that Francoeur brings to the clubhouse than you also have to consider those benefits as well.

So what is the opportunity cost here for the Royals? Well considering that the Royals and Alex Gordon have already stated that an extension for the pair is a goal in the offseason, it probably means that an extension for Melky is very unlikely.

At this point Gordon and Frenchy are both under control through the 2013 seasons. Melky is under control for 2012. Is it even feasible that the Royals totally commit to their current outfield through 2013? I can't see it happening. Not this offseason at least.

So what the Royals have done is elected to commit to Francoeur long term, while going year to year with Melky. Melky by the way has been a vastly superior player to Frenchy this season. Cabrera has contributed a WAR of 3.6 and has played a premium position.

Even though Cabrera has been a better player and signing for the Royals this season, was there anyone that thought he was more likely to be extended than Francoeur? I doubt it. Cabrera's ability to play center and switch hit coupled with the fact that he has had a better season than Francoeur should have made him a better fit to sign to a multi-year deal.

In the end, Dayton Moore and company knew that they wanted Francoeur back and quite frankly they may not have been able to do that on a one year deal. By selecting Francoeur as the man to receive an extension they were able to keep the entire outfield intact.

The Royals could have very easily picked up their half of Francoeur's mutual option. If he would have accepted, it would have been a great deal. If he would have declined the Royals could then have offered him arbitration. If Francoeur would have accepted that once again there is only a small financial commitment and it is just for one season. If he would have declined arbitration the Royals could have patted themselves on the back, been proud of their thrifty signing, and hoped that Francoeur obtained Type B free agent status and netted them a supplemental draft choice.

If the Royals would have taken this route they could have shifted Melky Cabrera over to right field next season and hand the centerfield job to Lorenzo Cain. This wouldn't have been a bad route at all. Truthfully I would have preferred the Royals take this route.

What this signing also means is that the Royals don't view Wil Myers as a guy that will be ready by mid 2012. There is nothing wrong with this and it definitely isn't a shot at Wil Myers. But what it means is that Myers should now be afforded at least another season or a season and a half in the minors before he will be able to really push for a big league job.

By signing Francoeur the Royals are able to add to their inventory now and in the future. Obviously they wanted Francoeur back in 2012, and without at least a two year extension they probably couldn't have been sure that he would return. My unimpressive and boring conclusion to all of this is that like the Francoeur signing last winter, this signing isn't a detrimental move. It is predictable. It does offer some positives, but these are about as high end as the potential negatives.

It isn't the route I would have taken. But it isn't a route that will hurt the Royals either. But when the Royals resign Jeff Francoeur to another two years in 2013, it will be a different story.

Prospect Countdown: 5-3

5. John Lamb LHP

Entering his final season of high school baseball, John Lamb was considered one of the top prep pitching products. However, luck didn't favor John and he wound up losing his senior campaign to a broken elbow that occurred in a car wreck. The Royals, whom have in the past few years have made a living on taking high dollar chances in the draft, selected Lamb in the fifth round and signed him to a $165,000 bonus.

Lamb wasn't able to return to the diamond until roughly a year after his selection when he debuted in Appy League for the Burlington Royals. Almost immediately Lamb began to draw attention from the scouting world, earning the Royals praise from Baseball America for their patience and commitment. Lamb finished the 2009 season in the hitter friendly environment that is the Pioneer League. By the time his first professional season was over Lamb had posted a 3.80 ERA with a 71:20 strikeout:walk ratio.

Scouts praised Lamb's stuff, but even more they loved his tenacity on the mound. Lamb seemingly was never phased over the course of a contest. Lamb was fearless on the mound displaying the courage to show any pitch in any count. After a strong spring Lamb was named Opening Day starter for the Burlington Bees.

Lamb didn't stay in Burlington long, as he blew by Midwest League hitters to a tune of a 1.58 era through 40 innings pitched. Lamb then joined the Blue Rock rotation and instead of hitting a roadblock as would be expected for a teenage pitcher in the Carolina League, Lamb's numbers improved his era dipped to 1.45. His k rate rose from 9.7 to 10.8. His walk rate dipped from 3.8 to 1.8.

As you can imagine the Royals decided that Lamb needed to be tested. So in just his second professional season, Lamb found himself as a member of a Naturals' rotation that was pushing for a Texas League title. Lamb struggled at times often pitching several good innings but mixing in a terrible one in starts. But in Lamb's last start of the season, when the Naturals needed a W to have a shot at the Texas League title, John Lamb went 6.2 innings, k-ed 5, allowed 2 hitts, walked 1, and allowed just 1 runner to cross the plate.

Lamb operates with a fastball that typically sits in the low 90s, but has been known to hit up to 95 on the gun. He also has the top changeup in the Kansas City system, and a curveball that at times shows promise of being another plus offering. When you combine this stuff with a top notch mentality and what Baseball America says is the top command in the system it is easy to get excited about the future or Mr. John Lamb.

John Lamb should begin the season in the Naturals rotation once again. If you live within a two hour radius of Springdale there is no excuse to not see him pitch at some point this season before he is promoted to Omaha.

4. Wil Myers OF



What Wil Myers did in his second professional season isn't normal. Myers, whom the Royals nabbed with an over-slot bonus of $2 million in the third round of the 2009 draft, returned the Royals investment by hitting .315/.429/.506 between two minor league stops. Considering how Hosmer and Moustakas didn't rocket up the prospect charts until after their third seasons, and how they both struggled during their first stints in low and high, there are a growing number of people who believe that Myers could be the best of the bunch.

Myers has a somewhat unorthodox stance, where he is open to the pitcher as he begins his delivery. However, by the time the ball is released Myers is in attack position and with a great eye is already in the process of determining what pitch is heading his way. It is this fantastic batting eye that has enabled Myers to post 94 walks compared to just 112 strikeouts in his 148 game professional career.

The only thing that was set to hold Myers back from quickly reaching the Majors was his defense, which left much to be desired. However just as many predicted, the Royals decided to shift Myers from behind the plate to the outfield corner. With the move to rightfield Myers plus arm should continue to be a tremendous asset and should also get Myers to Kansas City much faster.

Myers has drawn comparisons to Dale Murphy, both of which began their professional career as tall athletic catchers that eventually would have to shift to the outfield. These are nice comparisons for a guy that hasn't reached 150 professional games yet. Myers should eventually hit for both average and power, while also having the capability of drawing 100+ walks a season.

Myers should begin the season as the three hitter and rightfielder for the Naturals. I expect him to reach Kansas City at some point in 2012.


3. Mike Moustakas




Mike Moustakas is a beast. In his first game for the Naturals this summer he homered twice. Mike Moustakas is a leader. In his first stint in full season ball he once pinned an older player and cussed him out for not hustling on a play. Mike Moustakas is a baseball player. For half of the 2010 season I had the privelege of watching Moustakas play in games, take swings in the batting cages, and take infield on a regular basis. He loves the game. He works his ass off and someday Royals fans are going to love him for his fiery personality on big league diamond.

Moustakas struggled a season ago in Wilmington. He hit just .250 and posted a Francouerian obp of .297. He struggled against lefties and fans were concerned. When he began the 2011 season in extended spring training many thought of it as just another step back for the guy the Royals chose over Matt Weiters. But as soon as Moustakas got his time in the Texas League he took supreme advantage as he burned Texas League pitchers to a tune of .347/.413/.687. Had he not received a promotion to Omaha there is a little doubt that the triple crown title would have been his and not teammate Clint Robinson's.

Moustakas struggled a bit during his time in triple-A, but with the help of a 3 homer, 11 rbi night he finished his time in Omaha with a .293/.314/.504. For the year Moustakas hit .322/.369/.630 with 36 home runs and 124 rbi.

The concern with Moustakas is that his offensive game is fairly average dependent, meaning if he struggles to get hits, or luck favors the defense he could be a bit of a clog on the offense. The good news is that Moustakas has such supreme bat speed that he should be able to put enough balls in play to keep his average at a respectable level. Moustakas's power should also be strong enough that pitcher's will pitch around him much more than the typical hitter, which should enhance his on base percentage.

The other thing that the Royals will need to keep their eye on is how Moustakas fairs against left handed pitching. This will be a critical thing for him to improve on in order for him to develop into a superstar caliber talent. In his stint with Omaha Moustakas hit just .218/.244/.346. Because of these two concerns Moustakas doesn't come in as the top hitting prospect in the Royal Revival Prospect Countdown.

Heading into the 2010 scouts were afraid that Moustakas had filled out too much in his lower half to stick at thirdbase. Texas League managers tended to disagree and after watching Moustakas on a consistent basis I believe that Mous will have the range to stick at third for the early part of his career at least. He may not win any gold gloves but he should be at least average with a top notch arm from the hot corner.

With a strong Spring Moustakas could have positioned himself for a mid April callup. This would have delayed his service clock a year. However, due to a subpar Spring Moustakas is more likely looking at a callup sometime in late May or early June. I am unsure of the exact date necessary but this should delay both his free agency date and his arbitration eligible date.

This isn't just a good thing for the Royals from a financial standpoint but also from a development and evaluation standpoint. It will allow the Royals more time to figure out what they have in Chris Getz, Mike Aviles, and Wilson Betemit. But it will also give Moustakas more time to develop against lefties and refine his plate-discipline, two things that he needs to improve on before facing major league pitching. Nonetheless we will see Moustakas in Kansas City by season's end.

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