Revisiting the Wil Myers Trade

First off, I want to apologize for my absence over the past six weeks. As many of you have read here before, I've never been one to analyze individual games or do weekly updates. Quite frankly, I haven't been writing for a couple of reasons. First and foremost, I haven't had the free time necessary to maintain this blog. I am getting married in October and in the process of a home remodel. Also, my brother was married last night, as well as fellow Royal Revival writer Paden. In addition to these items, I am currently pursuing a Master's degree and have the responsibilities of a full time job. If the posts here are few and far between over the next few months, I hope you can bare with me.

The major reason for this post today is yesterday's blockbuster trade between the Athletics and Cubs. My initial reaction to the trade was 'man, is the Cubs system stacked.' My second thought, I hope this gets Billy Beane a ring.

Despite the lack of pitching prospects in the Cubs system it seems possible that the lovable losers could push for the title of Best Farm System ever. Theo Epstein, who has stated that he wants to build a farm system like the one the Royals had is on the cusp of accomplishing just that. (On a side note, I wonder how many baseball executives looked lustily upon the Royals system and thought to themselves, "oh if only I could be the one to take them to the next level.")

Since the trade there have been many who have comped this deal to the trade that sent Wil Myers to Tampa Bay. Let me be perfectly clear, this comparison is lazy. Yes, both the Royals and A's sent a top ten prospect plus to another team for pitching talent in an attempt to win now. No, that doesn't make the trades equal. This mentality that one is approved because it is Billy Beane and the other is rejected because it is Dayton Moore is unfair to the fans smart enough to evaluate moves on a much deeper level.

The Royals made the trade to get to the periphery of playoff contention. The Athletics made the trade to win a world series title. If you equate these two items as being of the same value, then you can click the X found in the upper right hand corner of the browser. A team's placement on the win curve is essential in determining what they should be willing to pay for each additional win. This is rudimentary stuff, but somehow seems to be forgotten by those stating these trades are one in the same.

Another point that should be made is that the Royals trade occurred in the off-season, a time in which talent can be acquired without sacrificing talent already in hand. Quite simply, if the A's wanted to improve their rotation in July, they had no choice but to move talent from their organization. In the off-season, the Royals could in theory acquire talent, while also hanging on to the talent at hand. This represents an enormous difference in the trades.

Finally, Addison Russell, while he is an outstanding prospect is not ready to contribute at the Major League level. He has played 16 games in the upper levels of the Minor Leagues. Best case is that he is called up midway through next season. Meaning the A's were not going to get a return on him for basically an entire season. Wil Myers on the other hand was Major League ready and returns on him would begin the same time as the returns of the asset. This is a key point that I haven't seen mentioned, but should not be ignored.

Of course, all of this pushed me to revisit the Myers trade. Since the Royals seemingly made the decision to go for it in 2013 and 2014, it would make sense that they would have returned much more value in the short term than the Rays. In order to see if the Royals have come out ahead in the Myers-Shields trade, I decided to compare the post trade WAR totals for the Royals with the WAR total from the Royals in an alternate universe in which they stayed the course and held on to Wil Myers. Also, since the Royals would have had a solution in right field, I have included the Smith brothers, Justin Maxwell, and Nori Aoki in this evaluation.

bWAR	2013	2014		fWAR	2013	2014
w/out trade	$1.00	$1.50		w/out trade	$1.00	$1.50
Patrick Leonard	A	A+		Patrick Leonard	A	A+
Mike Montgomery	AAA	AAA		Mike Montgomery	AAA	AAA
Jake Odorizzi	0.3	0.9		Jake Odorizzi	0.3	1.5
Wil Myers	1.9	-0.6		Wil Myers	2.4	0.4
Will Smith		1.3		Will Smith		0.6
Kyle Smith	A+	AA		Kyle Smith	A+	AA
	2.2	1.6			2.7	2.5
w/trade	$11.80	$20.25		w/trade	$11.80	$20.25
James Shields	4.1	-0.1		James Shields	4.5	1.4
Wade Davis	-2.1	1.8		Wade Davis	1.7	1.5
Nori Aoki		-0.5		Nori Aoki		0.9
Justin Maxwell	0.6	-1.2		Justin Maxwell	0.7	-1.1
	2.6	0			6.9	2.7

The left hand column utilized the WAR from Baseball Reference, while the right side uses Fangraphs' version. As you can see, the Royals clearly came out ahead in 2013, but depending on which WAR you prefer it was either just 0.4 wins or 4.2 wins ahead. Let's split the difference and say the Royals were 2.3 wins better because of the trade. In 2014, we find that according to bWAR the Royals are actually 1.6 WAR worse because of the trade, while fWAR says they are 0.2 wins better. Again let's split the difference and say they are 1.4 wins worse because of the trade. 

Really based off the above totals, no matter how you slice it, it is hard to argue that the Royals were much better off over the past two seasons due to the acquiring of James Shields and Wade Davis. In fact, based off of our midway points, the Royals actually were just 0.9 wins better over the last year and a half, thanks to the trade. I doubt this is what Royals officials had in mind when they pulled the trigger on the trade that would send their top prospect to Tampa Bay.

Unfortunately for Royals fans it gets worse. As you can see in the above tables, there is also a dollar figure included. This represents in millions how much the Royals paid for the players. In 2013, the Royals spent $10.8 million more for the bottom group and in 2014 the total jumped to $18.75 million more. My guess is that this difference could have been spent on the free agent market to acquire an additional win over the last year and a half, which would have made the top grouping better even in the short run. 

Fortunately, there is a way that we can consider the monetary implications in our evaluation. In 2013, Fangraphs valued each win at approximately $5 million. If we multiply that by the WAR total for each set and add in the difference in money to the alternate universe scenario, the Myers led Royals squad boasts an average over $23.05 million in value between Baseball Reference and Fangraphs to $23.75 million for the Shields version (approximately 0.1 win). This obviously is a slight edge to the Shields led Royals. However, the 2014 averages favor the Myers led squad $54.1 million to $26.65 million (roughly 4.6 wins).

Clearly, the Royals were willing to sacrifice the long term to push the envelope in the short term. Unfortunately, based off these numbers the Royals have lost tremendously in the short run as well. Even if we discount each year following 2013, the numbers are going to be staggeringly one sided when this set of trades is evaluated. To close, let me just give you an update on the other guys the Royals gave up that have yet to contribute at the Major League level. 

Patrick Leonard: Hitting .298/.386/.521 in 76 games with Tampa Bay's High A team. His 12 homers would be tied for third most in the Royals organization. He is 21 years old.

Mike Montgomery: 3.28 ERA in 85 innings with Triple A Durham (most hitter friendly park in league). He leads the International League in FIP and SIERA. Still just 24 years old. 

Kyle Smith: Has pitched 78.1 innings between the Astros High-A and Double A teams. Currently has a 3.56 ERA, is striking out 10.23 per 9 innings and walking just 2.64. He is also 21 years old.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

When Friedman Stole Christmas

Okay, I am the other writer for Royal Revival that has been chosen to spill his thoughts on the Myers-Shields trade.  While Damion Mandalas looked at a few of the positives and tried to see both sides, I am just going to react on how I really think this trade panned out for us as Royal Nation.

I will always remember last night, it could very well define my childhood love of the Kansas City Royals.  December 9th, 2012.  It was a cold, chilly night; I was sitting by the fire watching the Dark Knight rises when all of a sudden, I clicked the Twitter app on my iPhone only to find that Andrew Friedman had been lurking in the shadows waiting to pounce on his prey.  Okay, I'll quit this theatrical thing I got going on, but really I was freaking out.  In fact, when I saw the possible trade I got that bad feeling in your stomach when you think you're about to puke.  This couldn't be true. Remember during the Winter Meetings when these rumors were going on? And they passed through?  Surely that would be the case this time.  No, this rumor seemed different, tons of analysts were reporting this rumor and tons were saying it could be done shortly.

After an hour or two of frantically panicking about us trading what some Royals fans called the "Last Hope" Wil Myers.  It was complete.  It was the worst text notification I have ever received from ESPN.  I just stared at it.  No words could come out.  That initial reaction was only seeing that we had traded Wil Myers and other prospects for James Shields and Wade Davis.  I was sick just seeing that, but when it came out that we had also given Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery AND Patrick Leonard.  I knew that Andrew Friedman had struck again.  I have two friends of mine that are Rays fans.  They are actually brothers, and I joke with them all the time saying "The Royals aren't smart enough to play with Friedman".  Now there is actually some evidence to that statement.

This trade made me sick.  It was a desperation move by a desperate General Manager who hasn't done squat in his tenure with the Royals.  What the heck is he doing?  We clearly overpaid for James Shields.  Those two Rays fans will tell you the same, and I am as big of a James Shields fan as they come. I've always loved this guy.  However, we gave up way too much for possibly (probably) only two years of "Big Game James".  I was happy that Yordano Ventura and Kyle Zimmer weren't involved in the trade because I like them both better than Odorizzi and Montgomery but still, trading our Minor League Player of the year for a guy that we will probably only have for two years doesn't make sense to me at all.

I'm not a huge Jake Odorizzi fan but I definitely think he could turn out to be a solid 2-3 SP in the big leagues.  I don't know how Friedman got us to put him in the trade but whatever he said to sweet talk more really worked.  Mike Montgomery going doesn't rile me up as much, because he has just disappointed me the last two seasons.  I loved this guy and thought he was going to be a STUD.  I still think he has more upside than Odorizzi does, he just needs someone to tap into it.  The scary thing to me is I think the Rays will tap into his potential.  It makes me cringe that the Rays possibly could have one of the best hitters in the majors in Wil Myers and if Montgomery reaches his potential then they could possibly have one of the best pitchers as well.

Now that I have been through all of the negatives to this trade and why I don't think it was a smart move by the Royals; lets go through some WHAT IF scenarios.

If I would have wrote this post last night, this paragraph would not have been included.  I was too upset, and just pissed off at what Dayton Moore had done.  I was among those on the Royals Twitterverse that were just going crazy tweeting how stupid I thought we were and retweeting other people that were saying the same thing.  After a good nights sleep, I have thought through some things.  This trade maybe, just maybe could turn out to be a decent trade for Royals fans.  Just think, WHAT IF we do indeed advance to the playoffs in the next 2 seasons? WHAT IF James Shields leads us to an ALDS?  How much fun would that be?  Throughout my 20 years of being a Royals fan I have never once seen a playoff team or even sniff contention most years.  Now we have no excuses, we pushed the chips all in.  Dayton can say that these next two seasons aren't "playoffs or bust" seasons but they are.  Royal nation is aching for a winner, and now you made the big move.  It's time for us to make the transition to being a playoff team.  WHAT IF we do make the playoffs in the next two seasons or so, how fun would that be?  I don't know, I have never been a part of it.  However, I'm sure it would feel a heck of a lot better than consistently losing 90-100 games and watching Luke Hochevar take the mound on opening day.

I will end this post with one tweet I said last night, that drew some response from Royals fans.  I said I have been going to Opening Day for the last 8 years or so and not once have I seen an above average SP on the hill for us.  This year I can finally be there on Opening Day when we do have a stud who can beat anyone on any given day.

That is a step in the right direction, like I said I was unbelievably negative about this yesterday.  I still hate the trade but the chips are all in so we as fans might as well go all in too.  "Big Game James," you have a great opportunity to bring a winner to a city starving for one. I truly hope you embrace this challenge.

Playing Devil's Advocate on the Big Trade

At some point in the near future, another Royal Revival writer will put up his thoughts on the trade that sent James Shields, Wade Davis and a Player to be Named Later to Kansas City for Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard. For now, you are stuck with some of my thoughts on the subject.

There are a couple of ways that teams can go about roster construction. For the Tampa Bay Rays, they operate on the mantra of having one eye on the present with one eye on the future. The Rays are pretty unique in this regard, viewing players as assets while constantly trying to stockpile for the long term. The Oakland Athletics are another team that operates in this type of fashion.

The opposite approach is the idea that a team has to go for a window. Teams like the Reds, Brewers, Giants and Cardinals tend to take this type of approach, using prospects as fodder to net Major League pieces in order to contend when the possibility exists. There isn't necessarily a right or wrong way and their are pros and cons to both approaches.

Using an asset compiling approach, the Tampa Bay Rays have been able to average 91 wins per season over the last 5 years. At the same time, the Rays have been criticized for not dealing from their pitching surplus to acquire offense and the Rays have advanced to the World Series just once. The Giants and Cardinals have taken a much different approach. Both of these organizations have seized opportunities and as a result have combined to win the last three World Series titles.

As much as I personally love the Rays way of doing business, I always knew that Dayton Moore was a window guy and as the 2012 off-season has played out it was inevitable that Dayton Moore would deal from his farm system in an attempt to improve in the present.

It appears, that Dayton Moore has marked his window. With the addition of James Shields many have said that Dayton Moore has sent a clear message to the American League that the Royals are ready to contend. Those same individuals rationalize that unless the Royals truly believe that they can contend, why would they pull the trigger on such a move. Of course, what isn't being considered here is that it is just as likely that the Royals front office felt as though they had to contend as opposed to that they would contend.

The ultimate fear in this deal is that Dayton Moore stretched himself because he is feeling the heat. As a result, he sacrificed far too much of the long term in favor of the present. Ultimately, the Royals traded what accounts for 24 seasons of team control for about 7 seasons. This is not to say the deal is clearly a bad one for Kansas City, in fact, I am amazed by the group think of the Royals Twitterverse.

Do I like the trade? No, I do not. However, it is amazing to me how an entire fanbase can achieve such singularity in thought on Twitter. Maybe this is because the trade is so obviously bad for Kansas City. More likely, there is so much pessimism and peer pressure among the Royals fan base that people are afraid to voice opinions contrary to what the so called experts think.

Once again, let me just state that I am not a fan of this trade. If I was in Dayton Moore's shoes, there is no way I would have pulled the trigger. However, I have always thought it is important to see both sides to any trade. For that reason, I am going to play a little devil's advocate for the remainder of this post.

Let's start with the most obvious point. James Shields is a damn good pitcher. In seven professional seasons he has compiled 25.3 fWAR, while logging over 200 innings in six straight seasons and posting a career ERA of 3.89. He will turn 31 in ten days and for three straight seasons has recorded over 8 K/9 while allowing just over 2 BB/9. Oh and by the way, over the past three seasons Shields has witnessed his fly ball percentage drop 9%. In 2012, for the first time in his career he recorded a ground ball percentage over 50%. If this trend continues, Shields represents that rare pitcher that not only has a strong K:BB, but also induces a solid amount of ground balls.

Contrary to what Ken Rosenthal might say, Shields is not an ace. However, there is no reason to be ashamed of having him front your team's rotation. To put it simply, anyone that is attempting to degrade this trade by bashing James Shields is ignorant of what this pitcher has accomplished throughout his career.

The other piece coming to Kansas City is Wade Davis. In his first full two seasons, Wade Davis was a pretty mediocre starting pitcher. In 2012, he threw 70 innings out of the Rays bullpen and saw his K/9 sky rocket to 11.1. The keys to Davis transition to the bullpen were the ways in which his slider and curve ball both became weapons to put away hitters. According to Fangraphs, Davis's slider rated at 4.8 runs above average, while his curve ball registered at 6.7.

The key to this trade, will be Davis's ability to translate those weapons from the bullpen into a starting job. It goes without being said that if Davis can continue to strike out hitters at his 2012 rate, he is clearly a front of the rotation piece. More likely there will be regression. If Davis can simply maintain a K rate around 7-8, while keeping his walks around 3 per 9, the Royals will have found themselves a three starter.

It may be oversimplifying matters, but whether or not Davis can keep a plus slider and curve ball in the rotation may determine if this trade is a long term win or loss for Kansas City. Davis is currently signed to guaranteed money in in 2013 and 2014 at $2.8 and $4.8 million respectively. He then has team options for $7 million, $8 million, and $10 million. Yes, the Royals have five years of team control on Davis. However, unless he can be a valuable member of the rotation, his price tag will be too high to warrant the exercising of those options.

Finally, let's get into the prospects involved. What is unfortunate, is that each of these four pieces are good prospects and it isn't hard to imagine each of them making Kansas City regret the deal on their own merit. However, there is also an overvaluation of prospects in baseball today.

According to some reports, many Royals officials view Myers as more of a Nick Markakis type than a Ryan Braun type. Also, there is a reasoning that it is much easier to find production in right field than it is to find front of the rotation pitchers. I expect Myers to have a very strong career, but it isn't a lock that he is going to be a superstar.

I've actually grown a bit bored with Jake Odorizzi and according to some the Royals don't view him in the same class of prospects as Kyle Zimmer or Yordano Ventura. In fact, several recent scouting reports slot him in as a 3/4 type, rather than the 2 starter that many of us were hoping for. Once again, I like Odorizzi. I think he is going to be a valuable piece in a big league rotation, but the upside isn't what we once thought it was. His fastball is straight and he currently is lacking an out pitch to make him a front end guy at the Major League level.

Mike Montgomery might be the most interesting piece of this entire trade. I can't wait to see if Tampa is able to bring out some of that promise. I am already preparing myself for Montgomery's breakout campaign. Royals fans will complain and rightly so, but at this point it is hard to imagine him ever taking this sort of step in the Royals organization.

Finally, there is Patrick Leonard. Leonard has excellent power and JJ Cooper even pinned him as a guy to watch moving forward for the Royals system. Ultimately, he is four years away and it makes sense to include him to get a deal like this done.

There is a good chance that the Kansas City Royals will rue the day when this trade was conducted. Myers could become a superstar, Odorizzi could throw 200 innings annually, and Montgomery could find that potential. Of course, there is also the chance that Myers isn't the superstar we all hoped, that Odorizzi doesn't have the stuff to be a mid rotation type, and that Montgomery will never live up to his once awesome potential.

Ultimately, even if the former of those things happen, there is no reason this trade can't be a win-win for both parties. The Royals haven't made the playoffs since 1985. If, by chance, the Royals do make the playoffs in 2013, should we complain? Does that make the trade a win for Kansas City?

This trade may have literally made me sick, but I've been a Royals fan for twenty years. Never in my life has Kauffman Stadium hosted playoff baseball. It is natural for Royals fans to critique moves. Every fan base should do it and it is irresponsible to not consider the implications of transactions, even if they make the current team better.

With that being said, I can't help but imagine James Shields toeing the rubber on Opening Day and I long for the summer when the Royals are actually playing meaningful games in August and dare I say September. I always attempt to evaluate moves from an analytical perspective, but first and foremost I am a fan, damn it. This trade may be incredibly costly to the Royals future, but they believe in a window and for the first time in my life they aren't just paying lip service to winning now.

Royals Gettin' Their Over Slot On

The Royals got the ballpoint pen rolling on getting their top 2011 draft picks in uniform a couple of days ago when they got 3B/OF prospect, 5th round selection Patrick Leonard. Leonard was coached in high school by the great Craig Biggio, whom he gives huge amounts of credit to the development of his game.

Leonard receives big praise for his right handed power, something that has become a commodity in today's game. He's 6-3, 200 and was clocked as having a 6.73, 60 yard dash according to Perfect Game USA. The site also states that he has an "awesome bat, good in field, can do it all." Hopefully that short run down proves to be true. Leonard signed a deal with a bonus of $600K, the slot value for the pick was $161K.

This morning the Royals continued to force the Commisioner's office to approve overslot deals with a couple more big time prep signings. This time the players came in the right handed pitching variety.

First we learned about 29th round pick Jake Junis, whom the Royals signed to bonus of $675K. Here you can read about Pinetar Press's scouting report on the player. To highlight, Junis is a 6-3 righty with a very athletic frame. He has a fastball that currently sits in the low 90s, a curveball that has been at times a plus offering, and a changeup that is a show pitch at the moment.

Junis was considered a top 10 round pick by Baseball America entering the draft. His bonus demand of $800K scared teams off so much that he fell all the way to the 29th round. Once there he became a guy that most thought would be going to college for sure. The Royals did a great job of putting the dollar sign on the muscle with Jake Junis.

Just tens of minutes later the Royals signed their second prep righty of the day, 4th round pick Kyle Smith. I have to admit that outside of the Starling selection, no pick in the Royals draft had me as excited as the selection of Kyle Smith. His high school numbers were outrageous. He had an era of 0.40, with 116 Ks to just 14 walks in 69 innings his senior year. He also faced great competition, and had the privilege of playing baseball all year round in the state of Florida.

Smith has shown the ability to uncork mid 90s heat, a hard curveball, and a changeup that he has thrown much more than the typical college righty. Judging by his numbers he seems to already be polished to a certain degree and for that reason I'm hoping he can be a fast riser in the system. Smith signed to a $695K bonus, nearly three times the slot value.

Another thing that really intrigues me about Smith is his build. he is only 6 feet tall. This tells me two things. First, if Smith was a couple inches taller and posted the same numbers his senior season he would have been a top talent and coveted at the top of the draft. Second, the Royals must really like him if they were willing to deviate from their ideal frame for right handed starters.

Personally, I think it is only doing disservice to oneself when you create a typecast for the type of players you want to fill each position. It narrows your potential field of vision and disallows your staff from finding the absolute best players available. If you can see past prejudices and in this case old scouting prejudices and stereotypes you are enabled the opportunity to be more efficient than your competitors.


But the Royals didn't stop there. Later in the day they signed their 16th round selection, shortstop Jack Lopez. Lopez fell hard on draft day, due to a baseball scholarship to play for the hometown Miami Hurricanes. Jack Lopez was very open that there was a dollar amount that could prevent him to going to school, but it wasn't cheap. Well a couple of months later we know that the amount was $750K.

Lopez has soft hands and should stay in the middle infield long term. His father is a bullpen coach for the Cincinnati Reds, which is definitely a feather in his cap considering that players with Major League ties often adjust easier to pro baseball life.

The Royals latest work on the day comes in the signing of right handed starter Bryan Brickhouse. Aside from having a top flight name Brickhouse also attended a top flight high school baseball program at the Woodlands, TX. The high school has also produced Kyle Drabek, Jameson Tallion, and Brett Eibner.

The 3rd round pick Brickhouse had a UNC baseball scholarship in hand, but was bought out for $1.5 million. Brickhouse currently sits in the low 90s, but will flash mid 90's heat when he is on. He also displays a plus 11-5 curveball and like Junis has a show changeup. Baseball America says that Brickhouse could develop into a mid rotation starter, but if he can't find enough consistency he will find a home in the bullpen.

While the Royals have undoubtedly had a great day thus far, the attention now fully turns to Bubba Starling. Yes I believe he will sign. I think at one point I even ventured a guess of 9.1 million as a bonus for him.

If Bubba doesn't sign there will definitely be a taste of disappointment in the mouths of Royals fans, though I am sure it won't be due to lack of effort on the Royals part. The deadline is still almost two hours away, I am convinced he'll sign, but with each passing minute I grow just a little more nervous.