Looking to Future Rotations

With each passing day that Ervin Santana remains a free agent, more and more Royals fans' confidence grows that Santana could return to Kansas City. While I hate to throw water on to these dreams, I am afraid that I have to.

Santana will not be coming back to Kansas City.

The Royals are too deep into their off-season plans and it is woefully apparent that whether or not it is true, the team is operating with the opinion that $90 million is the break even point. The rotation has four out of five spots left and multiple candidates for the fifth spot that are deserving of a chance with the big league club.

Here's a quick snapshot of the next few years rotations:

2014

1. James Shields
2. Jeremy Guthrie
3. Jason Vargas
4. Bruce Chen
5. TBD

2015

1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. Jason Vargas
3. TBD
4. TBD
5. TBD

2016 & 2017

1. Jason Vargas
2. TBD
3. TBD
4. TBD
5. TBD

Obviously, it is the Royals hope that they can fill their rotation with homegrown talent starting next season. Just a month or so ago, J.J. Picollo even stated that he expects Danny Duffy, Yordano Ventura, Kyle Zimmer, and Sean Manaea all to be ready to hold down big league spots. Also, on the horizon is Jason Adam and Miguel Almonte. 

It does appear that the Royals will have the arms to fill out a couple of spots in their big league rotation, but are they going to be able to fill three spots as soon as next season? 

What if this season Duffy totally loses control and Kyle Zimmer blows out his elbow? Where will that leave the Royals next off-season as they attempt to fill out their rotation. Would it be more economical to sign Santana now when conceivably his price has been diminished or would it be better to jump the market and overpay next off-season for another Vargas/Guthrie type. 

If the Royals were to sign Santana, he could slot into the rotation instead of Bruce Chen for 2014. With the addition of Santana, Chen could slide into a swing man role and the Royals could still have a competition for the final rotation spot. Next season, they'd ideally have established one or two of the Duffy, Ventura, Zimmer bunch and would be able to fill out a rotation with some confidence. 

Given the Royals history of starting pitcher development, it seems incredibly ballsy to expect the the current crop of prospects can fill three spots in next years rotation. This indicates to me that next off-season the Royals will once again have to dip their toes into the starting pitching market of free agency. So I leave you with a final question: would it be better to go over the salary threshold this year to get Santana at below market value, or would it be better to wait and overpay next off-season? 

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

Royals Sign Jason Vargas

The Royals made another one of their "major announcements" this afternoon, this time the news being that the team had reached a four year, $32 million pact with left hander Jason Vargas.

Jason Vargas is actually a pitcher that I have advocated for the Royals to acquire before, but I have to admit that a four year deal is two more years than I am comfortable. I realize that in free agency, you typically have to give one more year than you would like, so I would have been alright with three (allegedly this is what the Vargas camp was demanding.)

There have been whispers that the Royals were actually able to lower the annual value of the deal, while obtaining an extra year of team control. For instance, if Vargas was demanding 3 years, $30 million, the Royals are theoretically paying an extra $2 million for another year of control. What do you think, is an extra year at marginal additional cost worth it? Where would you draw the line for the extra year in terms of additional guaranteed money? $2 million? $3 million? $5 million? Ultimately, at just $8 million per year this isn't a deal that should cripple the payroll.

Another comment that I heard regarding the Vargas deal is that while four years seems like to much the market says otherwise. Really? Are you referring to the market that has hardly been set yet. A far superior, albeit older, pitcher Tim Hudson received two years at $24 million. Injury prone, but extremely talented Josh Johnson netted himself $8 million a season, unfortunately it was just a one year contract. I don't know that the market for Vargas has been set, but those two signings don't scream to me that Vargas should require a four year contract.

The most similar pitchers to Jason Vargas to hit free agency over the last couple of seasons are guys that Royals fans should be very familiar with. Jeremy Guthrie and Bruce Chen are both flyball pitchers with less than stellar strike out rates. Guthrie received a $25 million deal over three years that many people believe was too large of a contract. Chen on the other, perhaps the most comparable pitcher to Vargas in baseball over the past three seasons, will definitely not be receiving four years this winter.

I can't help but wonder, will this really be the only upgrade to the rotation this offseason. On several occasions we've heard that the Royals are only looking to add one starter, well if that proves to be true they definitely went the safe route. Vargas doesn't have the upside of other available options, but he is a safe bet to post an ERA around 4.00 to 4.50.

After missing out on Josh Johnson and Tim Hudson, did the Royals hit the panic button? Not wanting to be the last team standing when the music turned off? Was the Royals interest in Phil Hughes exaggerated or has the bidding already surpassed what the Royals were willing to spend.

Personally, I think we'll see the Royals bring in another starter before February 14 gets here. I don't think Vargas is a bad option, only that it seems like an overpay and just the latest edition of Dayton Moore's front office jumping the market. Will this instance prove to be another poor piece of judgement in the way the market is heading? Only time will tell.

Kauffman Stadium and Fly Ball Pitchers

I set out to write a post regarding how fly ball pitchers fair better in Kauffman Stadium than other parks. Basically, I took the top six pitchers in games started from each of Dayton Moore's six seasons at the helm. In a database I then compiled the innings pitched, ERA, ground ball percentage (league average 44%), and HR/FB (league average is 9.5%) of each of the starter's seasons. Following this, I weighted each starter's inputs into a team total based off of innings pitched.

Eventually, I ran a correlation analysis, as well as created a few line graphs that I overlaid over one another in order to get a quick visual. I did this in an attempt to determine how similar the line graphs were in structure. Not surprisingly, I did not find any serious connections between the elements. Of course, the sample size was incredibly small given that I was looking at team totals over six seasons.

I then decided that instead of focusing on the team totals, I would look at all of the starters individually. For this step, I simply created a scatter plot for both ERA versus GB% and ERA versus HR/FB. Here is a look at those scatter plots.

Obviously, there is nothing groundbreaking in this 15 minutes of research. The linear line above isn't anything to crazy. If we were to actually analyze how Kauffman favors fly ball pitchers compared to other parks, we would of course have to compare the above scatter plot to that of Major League averages. One thing that I will note, is that in general we are told that pitchers are better if they can induce ground balls. However, based off of the incredibly small sample above, our linear equation is actually very level across the board. In fact, if you examine the line closely, you will notice a slight slope indicated that fly ball pitchers fair slightly better at the K. 

If we were to really look closely at these types of numbers, of course we would want to include strikeout and walk rates in our study. But if I had to make a conclusion on this quick study, the fact that the line tilts ever so slightly in favor of fly ball pitchers would lead me to believe that this type of pitcher should find Kauffman Stadium's confines friendly. 

Examining our second graph, we once again don't find anything ground breaking. It doesn't take a genius to tell you that more home runs would lead to a higher ERA. I still have to wonder how this slope would compare to the slopes of other Major League parks, but given the dimensions of the K's outfield one would guess that HR/FB are lower for Royals starters. While I would expect the data points to be lower on the Y axis, I would also expect the slope to be less steep for other team's starters. 

I would theorize that due to the higher number of hits at Kauffman Stadium, home runs would hurt more than they would at a park where there are typically less base runners. For that reason, it is ideal for Royals pitchers to have a strong combination of a high fly ball percentage, with a low home run to fly ball percentage. This recipe for success is in no way unique to Kauffman Stadium, but given the park factors of Kauffman Stadium it is likely much more pronounced than the average Major League Park. 

An excellent example of this came in 2009. Zack Greinke was excellent in many facets of his game during that season, but one aspect that was particularly incredible was his ability to limit home runs despite inducing ground balls just 40.2% of the time. Like I said, this was just one part of Greinke's success. However, given Kauffman Stadiums park effects and the manner in which Greinke was recording outs, it isn't any wonder how the Cy Young winner was able to outperform his xFIP by nearly a full run. 

Over the last six seasons, eight Royals "starters" (ERAs include their time in the bullpen), have posted ERAs under 4.00. Six of those eight starters registered below the league average of 4t% ground balls. None of those eight starters posted a HR/FB above league average (9.5%). 

Eleven out of the 36 starters studied, recorded ground ball percentages below 44% as well as limited HR/FB to under 9.5% (I am including 2008 Greinke who just missed the cut with a 42.7 GB%). Here is how those starters rank in ERA among those unqualifying starters. I have put their names in bold. 

1. 2009 Greinke 2.16
2. 2012 Guthrie 3.16
3. 2008 Greinke 3.47
4. 2007 Meche 3.67
5. 2007 Greinke 3.69
6. 2011 Chen 3.77
7. 2007 Bannister 3.87
8. 2008 Meche 3.98
9. 2008 Davies 4.06
10. 2011 Paulino 4.11
11. 2010 Chen 4.17

The two unranked seasons that met the criteria were 2010 Davies (5.34) and 2011 Davies (6.75). Outside of a couple of Davies anomalies (leave it to Kyle Davies to screw something up), it seems pretty certain that the recipe for success at Kauffman Stadium is to keep the balls in the park, while inducing a large number of air outs. (Again this is a good recipe for success anywhere, I just suspect that it is more pronounced for Royals starters. More work would undoubtedly need to be done in order to confirm or refute this belief.)

What does this mean moving forward?

Whether the Royals intended to or not, they acquired several fly ball pitchers this offseason. Ervin Santana's career ground ball percentage is 38.9%, Jeremy Guthrie's is 40.6% and Wade Davis's is 37.9%. (James Shields's is 45.1%.) Davis is the only one of the first three that fall below 10% HR/FB threshold. However, Santana's career mark is 10.8% and Guthrie's is 10.6%. It doesn't feel too crazy to ask they cut just 1% off of their career marks.

I've long felt as though fly ball pitchers can really thrive in Kauffman Stadium. I've wondered many times whether Kauffman's postive affects on fly ball pitchers have been undervalued. Let's hope that this proves to be true. Let's hope that the rotation can keep the ball in the yard and the outfielders busy. If I'm right, we could be pleasantly surprised by the rotation's results in 2013. 

Royals Sign Jeremy Guthrie

The Royals announced on Monday that Jeremy Guthrie would be returning to Kansas City on a three year $25 million deal. The deal is structured in a manner in which Guthrie will be paid $5 million in 2013, $11 million in 2014, and $9 million in 2015.

Naturally among the Royals' Twitterverse, this deal has received everything from praise to an incredible amount of criticism. One thing I think that most everyone can agree on is that a three year commitment is one year too much. However, I'd like to welcome those individuals to 2013, a time when most view inflation on the horizon.

This is not to say that the Royals are necessarily overpaying for Jeremy Guthrie. In fact, I think this contract is pretty well right in line with what Guthrie's value likely is. In fact, it has been noted by several that over the last three seasons Guthrie has been worth $23.8 million. Haters would respond to this by pointing out that Guthrie is on the downhill slope of the aging curve and that it isn't a good assumption to project Guthrie to continue his past performance moving forward.

Typically, I would agree that based on his age regression should be expected. In this instance, I feel differently. I've talked about this a lot in recent weeks, I think Guthrie fits the mold of what kind of pitcher can be excel in Kauffman Stadium. While it was a small sample size (fourteen starts), Guthrie's performance with the Royals evidenced this fact.

Guthrie has always been a fly ball pitcher. As a result of this he has been able to find consistent success in limiting the batting average on balls in play of opposing hitters. Ground balls result in a higher percentage of hits than fly balls. Of course, it goes without being said that fly balls result in a higher percentage of home runs than ground balls. Fortunately, for the first time in Guthrie's career he was able to play in a park that has historically suppressed home runs.

The other two parks that Guthrie has called home were both poor fits as far as Guthrie's pitching style goes. Camden Yards is a bandbox. Coors Field is a mile above sea level. Guthrie of course was a disaster in Coors, but somehow he was able to amass 11.1 fWAR while pitching for the Baltimore Orioles. That is good for 2.2 fWAR per season. If he can continue that for Kansas City, he'll be worth the contract.

Throughout his career, Jeremy Guthrie has been around 5.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and 40% GB%. In Kansas City, Guthrie was able to drop his BB/9 under 2, while maintaining his K/9. There is a reason to expect this improvement to be reality and not sample size induced, due to a change in mechanics that the Royals coaching staff implemented following his arrival in Kansas City.

Interestingly in some research I came across another starter who posted similar peripherals in 2012. This starter recorded 5.9 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 with a 40% GB. This starter was able to pitch all of his home games in a fly ball pitcher's parks. The pitcher's name is Brandon McCarthy and he had a 3.24 ERA in 18 starts while compiling 1.8 fWAR.

Kauffman Stadium isn't the pitcher's park that the Coliseum is, but there's reason to believe that if Guthrie can keep his walk rate under two, it isn't hard to imagine him posting an ERA around 3.50, while logging 200+ innings annually with a fWAR around 3. If Guthrie can do this, it would be silly to complain about paying him $8 million annually.

***On a side note can we stop lumping contracts together and saying things like instead of player X, Y, and Z we could be paying for player A? Just because the Royals screwed up with one contract doesn't mean that every other contract is a bad one. Surely, the Royals blogosphere is smarter.

As I stated earlier, I wish Kansas City could have been brought back on a two year deal. With that being said, I think the timing of the Guthrie deal is important to note. By locking up Guthrie now and acquiring Ervin Santana, they have the necessary security to cut ties with Chris Volstad and Luke Hochevar. The former of these two tasks has already been completed, and I fully expect Hochevar to be non-tendered by the November 30, deadline.

If the Royals wouldn't have completed the deal with Jeremy Guthrie prior to the end of the month, they would have likely felt it necessary to tender Hochevar a contract. Instead, they can now non-tender Hochevar, adding about $5 million to their budget. If they can apply this budget elsewhere that's great, if not the addition of Guthrie gives the Royals enough options entering 2013, should the worst case scenario occur and the Royals not find any other starters between now and Opening Day.

Cutting Hochevar also would allow the Royals some additional financial flexibility. The structure of the Guthrie deal makes a couple of points apparent for me. First, the Royals don't have as much budget room available for 2013, as most of us believe that they should. Second, By back loading the Guthrie deal, the Royals provide themselves with some additional wiggle room to add a third rotation piece.

Another interesting point, is that while the deal is back loaded, it is also structured in a way in which Guthrie will be paid the highest percentage of his earnings in the second year of his contract. This also appears to be a smart approach as with the Royals youth, ideally the young players will continue to get more expensive through arbitration as time goes by. If nothing else, it at least shows a bit of creativity on the part of Dayton Moore and the front office.

Overall, I'm not in love with the Guthrie deal. I feel as though the contract is fair value. It is close enough to where I truly believe it can be argued one way or another if it was a good deal for the club. Personally, I think it is a good deal. People are making a fuss about the Royals pursuit of mediocrity, but yet those individuals aren't proposing any solutions to the problem. I believe that Guthrie is an improvement and I expect him to be solid over the next three years with some small upside due to Kauffman's park factors.

Oh and Jeremy Guthrie, I saw that you were tweeting Brandon McCarthy the other day. Why don't you try to convince him to join you in Kansas City? Talk about how well you two fit into the ballpark and if that statistical stuff falls short, you could always invite him hunting with you and Frenchy.

Royal Rewind Wrap Up (10-22-12)

Yesterday as I was flipping through channels and trying to ignore the "must watch" TV of the third and final Presidential Debate, I came across "Royal Rewind" on Fox Sports Midwest.  It had already been going on for a half hour or so, but I caught most of the last half.  Here are some thoughts by a few Royals personnel from the Royal Rewind.  I am only paraphrasing what they said.

Ned Yost

• Losing Paulino and Duffy hurt the most. Rotation would hinge around those guys and both were doing great at time they got hurt.

Although Felipe Paulino was pitching like an "ace" before he got hurt, Danny Duffy wasn't pitching exceptional.  Obviously, losing those two pitchers hurt the rotation badly, but one could also make an argument that losing Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez for the first half of the season was just as devastating. Oh and we were playing Yuniesky Betancourt.

• Moose has improved, gold glove caliber third baseman. Production was pretty good for first full year in big leagues.

Mike Moustakas has improved, especially on defense.  He led all 3B in UZR in 2012 at 16.8. This mark put him ahead of the likes of David Wright, and Adrian Beltre.  Moose was also 2nd among 3B in the Majors in UZR/150 at 15.2 only behind David Wright at 16.8.  Moose was hot the first half of the season where he slugged .490 and hit 15 long balls.  Post All-Star Break he was awful. He had an OPS of .586 with a putrid 5 homers.  Don't get me wrong, I love Moustakas, and I still think in terms of his first year he had a real solid year overall.  But if the Royals want to compete for division championships Moose (or Hoz) will both have to be All-Star caliber players in my opinion.

• Hoz really struggled

Boy did he.  Eric Hosmer was incredibly tough to watch most of the year; and not just at the plate.  He was hard to watch on defense as well, thanks to his windmill digging style and the tendency to fling the ball across the field.  Like Moustakas, Hosmer will have to become an All-Star caliber player in order for the Royals to compete year in and year out.

• Ryan Lefebvre asked Ned something along the lines of it was as simple as starting pitching for the Royals to become a contender.
• Ned: "It's that simple really" Experience is extremely valuable and core is set on the field (lineup).
• Bullpen is efficient, need a couple starters and we should be in good shape.

Is it as simple as SP? Well in some ways yes it is.  We desperately need 2 or 3 starters that can pitch somewhat like Jeremy Guthrie did for the Royals, or even Luis Mendoza.  Luke Hochevar should not be in the rotation next year. Period.  I know I'm not the only fan who is saying this, in fact, its most likely a choir of Royals fans saying this.  I still think there is more to the Royals competing, and that is what I said earlier: Moustakas and Hosmer living up to star potential. Or at least one of them.

Steve Physioc

• Holland was fantastic and has makeup and mentality to be a closer

I agree, he looked great. Love his strikeout ability.

• Guthrie raised the entire rotation up, Mendoza pitched better (when Guthrie came) and Chen pitched better too.

Guthrie raised the rotation up because he pitched very well, Mendoza was consistently slightly above average and Bruce Chen was terrible for the most part, I don't get the love for Chen.

Rex Hudler

• Bruce Chen set the tone for rotation
• Led the entire season
• "Raise the Roof in 13"

Oh Rex. Chen really led the staff all year with his 5.07 ERA and becoming the human launching pad by giving up 33 dingers on the year. You amaze me Rex.

Royals Acquire Guthrie for Sanchez

Early this morning we learned that the Kansas City Royals acquired Jeremy Guthrie from the Colorado Rockies for Jonathan Sanchez. I have to admit that when Sanchez was DFA-ed earlier in the week I fully expected him to request his papers and move on. Instead, the Royals were somehow able to grab at least something for perhaps the most disappointing pitcher ever to don the Royals blue.

Jeremy Guthrie entering 2012 was a guy who could be relied upon to provide his team with 200 innings of average to slightly above average performance. He wasn't a front end guy, but he was consistent and dependable, the kind of guy that the Royals just can't seem to find when filling out their own rotation.

However, in 2012 things took a turn for the worse. Guthrie was traded to the Rockies and as a fly ball pitcher it wasn't exactly a match made in heaven. Opposing hitters have absolutely crushed Guthrie particularly in Coors Field where they are hitting .368/.415/.720. I'll give you a second to take that in. In 9 games in Coors Field this season Guthrie has turned National League lineups into lineups that would include guys like The Great Bambino, The Sultan of Swat, The King of Crash, and Babe Ruth making every hitter seem as though they were an alter ego of the greatest hitter of all time.

While Sanchez's problems seem to stem from a loss in velocity that eliminated his best weapon, which in turn forced him to rely on other less dynamic pitches resulting in a total loss of command, (exhale) Guthrie appears to have simply lost the ability to throw the ball past hitters. His walk rate is up over three for the first time since his rookie season, but it is his drop in strikeout rate by over one per nine innings and a doubling in his home run rate that has been a huge problem.

The good news is this, Kauffman Stadium while not a pitcher's park does do a good job of suppressing home runs. Guthrie is a fly ball pitcher that has never had the opportunity to pitch in a park that favors fly ball pitchers. This season, Guthrie's HR/FB has nearly doubled from last year all the way to 18.6%. This is an astronomical number and if Kauffman can push it back down to his around 10% Guthrie should at least be serviceable. This may be asking for a lot, but don't forget about  Bruce Chen whom posted HR/FB of 17.4% and 21.4% in Baltimore and Texas before seeing that number shrink to 11% and then eventually settling at 8.1% for the following two seasons.

Also of note, Sanchez's poor performance stemmed largely from a decrease in velocity. However, this is not the case with Guthrie whose velocity seems to have stayed constant based on Fangraphs' pitch data. Hopefully, Guthrie will be an example of a guy whose game just didn't fit the park in which he was playing. Based on his pitch selection, he hasn't lost confidence in any of his pitches, so perhaps a change of scenery will do him some good. Although, I have to admit that this is an optimistic take on a guy with a 6.35 ERA.

Ultimately, this isn't a trade to get to worked up about. Both starters are going to be free agents after the season and both are owed roughly the same amount of money. I'm sure what both teams are hoping is that moving back into the leagues in which the starters found success will do them both good. For the Royals, Guthrie will hopefully find a way to at least eat innings through the remainder of the season, saving the bullpen a bit from the incredible taxation they've had to pay. At this point it is hard to imagine that either Guthrie or Sanchez will pitch for their new teams past the end of September.

Winter Meetings: Day 1 Round Up

So here are some quick hits of the Royals rumors today:

1. Royals are one of five teams interested in Carlos Guillen. This would have to come real cheap, and since Guillen wouldn't even be a viable back up for Escobar, I'm just not sure how this fits. Looking at the market, I'm beginning to think that Navarro presents the best blend of versatility and bat skill for our bench. It just becomes a matter of how important for the organization to have him playing everyday.

2. Royals are dangling Soria and Holland for pitching, but are asking for a lot. The Royals have every right to be asking for a lot, even considering last season, Soria has been one of the top closers in baseball and still has an incredibly favorable contract. Holland of course is under team control for five more seasons after dominating in 2011.

3. Royals are aggressively pursuing starting pitching and are talking with the Athletics about Gio Gonzalez. I haven't heard of any specific names from the Royals end, but I would imagine the Athletics are demanding a lot in return. For me my interest in Gio hinges on the Athletics demand. I don't include Myers, but a package involving one of either Odorizzi or Montgomery, Colon and a lower level guy like Eibner, Bonifacio, Ventura, Yambati, or Adam would make sense to me, but I'd imagine wouldn't for the Athletics.

4. Royals have also kicked tires on Jeremy Guthrie. As is case with everyone greatly depends on cost. I think Guthrie's numbers would improve should he be dealt to Kansas City, however, with a cursory glance over his numbers I'm not convinced we'd be adding anything more than a #3. Quite frankly we've got plenty of potential #3s.

5. Royals have scouted Cuban Yoenis Cespedes. To be clear, Dayton Moore basically said he would likely fall way out of the Royals price range, but there is a precedent for the Royals shocking the industry on the Cuban market. If the Royals do love Cespedes, and are concerned with Cain... well... yeah, I'd still be shocked if we landed Cespedes.

6. The Royals and Rays have discussed Shields, with Rays seeking a return of Soria, Myers, and Colon. In trades for guys like Shields, teams typically have to give up a centerpiece, quality player, and one or two complimentary pieces. My problem with this trade is that the Royals would be giving up too much. Soria is an elite closer on a team friendly deal, Myers is a blue chip prospect, and Christian Colon was the #4 overall selection in the 2010 draft. But don't forget, it is rare for teams to actually get the haul that they initially demand. Just because the Rays are seeking that package, doesn't mean that the Royals would have give up that to obtain Big Game James. We'll just have to wait and see.