Looking to Future Rotations

With each passing day that Ervin Santana remains a free agent, more and more Royals fans' confidence grows that Santana could return to Kansas City. While I hate to throw water on to these dreams, I am afraid that I have to.

Santana will not be coming back to Kansas City.

The Royals are too deep into their off-season plans and it is woefully apparent that whether or not it is true, the team is operating with the opinion that $90 million is the break even point. The rotation has four out of five spots left and multiple candidates for the fifth spot that are deserving of a chance with the big league club.

Here's a quick snapshot of the next few years rotations:

2014

1. James Shields
2. Jeremy Guthrie
3. Jason Vargas
4. Bruce Chen
5. TBD

2015

1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. Jason Vargas
3. TBD
4. TBD
5. TBD

2016 & 2017

1. Jason Vargas
2. TBD
3. TBD
4. TBD
5. TBD

Obviously, it is the Royals hope that they can fill their rotation with homegrown talent starting next season. Just a month or so ago, J.J. Picollo even stated that he expects Danny Duffy, Yordano Ventura, Kyle Zimmer, and Sean Manaea all to be ready to hold down big league spots. Also, on the horizon is Jason Adam and Miguel Almonte. 

It does appear that the Royals will have the arms to fill out a couple of spots in their big league rotation, but are they going to be able to fill three spots as soon as next season? 

What if this season Duffy totally loses control and Kyle Zimmer blows out his elbow? Where will that leave the Royals next off-season as they attempt to fill out their rotation. Would it be more economical to sign Santana now when conceivably his price has been diminished or would it be better to jump the market and overpay next off-season for another Vargas/Guthrie type. 

If the Royals were to sign Santana, he could slot into the rotation instead of Bruce Chen for 2014. With the addition of Santana, Chen could slide into a swing man role and the Royals could still have a competition for the final rotation spot. Next season, they'd ideally have established one or two of the Duffy, Ventura, Zimmer bunch and would be able to fill out a rotation with some confidence. 

Given the Royals history of starting pitcher development, it seems incredibly ballsy to expect the the current crop of prospects can fill three spots in next years rotation. This indicates to me that next off-season the Royals will once again have to dip their toes into the starting pitching market of free agency. So I leave you with a final question: would it be better to go over the salary threshold this year to get Santana at below market value, or would it be better to wait and overpay next off-season? 

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

Wildcard Wade Wants to Start

After the signing of Bruce Chen, I don't think I was alone in assuming that the final rotation spot would come down to either Yordano Ventura or Danny Duffy. Of course, I knew that a few other names would be thrown out as candidates: Brad Penny, Chris Dwyer, Luke Hochevar, Wade Davis, and Kyle Zimmer. Despite most of us believing that Hochevar and Davis will figure in as bullpen components, both are making buzz about their focus on reclaiming roles in the rotation. On Friday, Fox Sports writer Jeffrey Flanagan brought us some quotes from Davis on the subject. 

"I'm definitely going in to start. I hope I get the opportunity to pitch and help this team win a lot of ballgames. I'm ready, probably more so than I ever have been."

When Wade Davis was acquired in conjunction with James Shields last winter, many pointed to Davis as the wild card of the deal. Defendants of the trade also were quick to cite Wildcard Wade's contract status when the Shields portion of the deal was criticized due to his two years of control. Unlike Shields, Davis came with two guaranteed seasons, plus three team options for 2015-17.

The problem with these options is that they really are only economically viable if Davis is logging his innings as a member of the team's rotation. It is likely for this reason that the Royals were so patient with Davis as a starter in 2013. Despite posting a 5.67 ERA as a starter, Davis was somehow able to hold down a rotation spot for 24 starts, and was not moved to relief duty until September.

There is a very slight possibility that Davis wasn't as bad in 2013, as his numbers would indicate. Afterall, his FIP was just 4.18, which compares quite favorably to his 5.32 ERA. This discrepancy largely stems from his .361 BABIP against. However, when plugging in his batted ball frequencies to an expected BABIP calculator, you'll find that the number isn't that much different than the BABIP that was actually posted against him. This is mainly due to opponents posting a 27.5% LD% against the former Rays farmhand. Fangraphs' tERA, which estimates ERA with batted ball data, says that his ERA should have been 5.42.

According to Troy Renck, beat writer for the Denver Post, the Royals and Rockies were discussing a deal that would have sent Wade Davis to Colorado in exchange for outfielder Dexter Fowler. If this is true then the Royals probably were very open to moving Davis throughout the offseason. Unfortunately, they were unable to find a match for a trade. Since it is hard to imagine the Royals contending and going through the Wade Davis starter experience again, it is unlikely that reliever Wade Davis will justify a $7 million option for 2015.

When the Royals acquired Wildcard Wade they likely hoped that they were acquiring a solid mid rotation starter for the next five seasons. If Davis could have been this it would have greatly helped to justify the Wil Myers trade. Regrettably, the former 3rd round pick has failed to transition into a useful rotation piece and as a result a year from now, the Royals will likely have only one compensation draft pick to show for their blue chip prospect.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams

22nd Best Rotation in Baseball

On Wednesday, Matthew Pouliot of NBC Sports' Hardball talk took a moment to rank the rotations across Major League Baseball. Somewhat disappointingly, Pouliot concluded that the Royals ranked 22nd in the league and according to his Rotoworld Player Projections would compile a 3.94 ERA over 940 innings pitched. You can view the full list here.

For reference, last season the Royals rotation ranked 12th in baseball with a 3.87 ERA, as well as 4th with 986.2 innings pitched. The issue for the Royals is that much of this rotation success stems from a defense that was one of, if not the best in all of baseball. When we look at Fielding Independent Pitching, the Royals rotation ranking falls to 21st at 4.12 in 2013.

If you give NBC Sports the benefit of the doubt that writer Pouliot has taken into consideration the Royals defensive prowess and is wise enough to not include that in the Royals ranking, then a ranking in the low 20s shouldn't come as a huge surprise to Royals fans. Especially, when you remember that the average sports fan is going to immediately knock the staff for the trade out of Ervin Santana for Jason Vargas.

Ultimately, the success of this rotation will depend on what the Royals get from Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura in 2014. If those two starters can be what many in the organization expect them to be, then this rotation will have no problem posting a better FIP than the one posted by the 2013 version. If those to are duds in 2014, then the Royals will be thankful to have the consistency of Jason Vargas and Bruce Chen on their staff.

At this point, the Royals have six guys who would be deserving of rotation spots to open the season. There is the dependable front end guy (James Shields), the dependable innings eaters (Vargas, Chen, and Jeremy Guthrie), and there are the high upside wild cards (Duffy and Ventura). It is a good blend of options and with Zimmer also on the way, there is even more upside that could reach Kansas City by season's end.

I definitely wouldn't be against a Royals move for another starter (A.J. Burnett or Ervin Santana), and I definitely think the rotation upgrades could have been handled in different measures in the offseason. However, if last year's rotation was strong enough to get the Royals to 86 wins, I see no reason why this rotation couldn't hold course. Obviously, for the Royals to get to the next level, the real key will be improvement on the offensive side of things.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams

Rumor: Royals Sign Chen to Lifetime Contract

The Royals cleared $3 million in payroll space this season when Jeremy Guthrie agreed to a restructure of his deal and just 17 days later, Bruce Chen will quit his step aside from his semi final run on "Last Comic Standing" to return to the Kansas City Royals on a one year pact worth $4.25 million. The deal includes a $5.5 million option for the 2015 season.

Soon after the deal, Guthrie took to social media to tweet this:

That is @ChenMusic to my ears! RT @Ken_Rosenthal: Source: #Royals re-sign Bruce Chen.
— Jeremy Guthrie (@TheRealJGuts) January 30, 2014

This deal probably doesn't come as much of a shock to most Royals fans, the fact that Guthrie restrctured his deal seemed to indicate that another move would come. However, a restructure to save $3 million, seemed to indicate it would be for a guy like Chen.

As for Chen's fit on the roster, he will likely head to camp with the opportunity to win a spot in the rotation, with a fallback as an extra lefty in the pen, who can double as a long man. Let's take a look at his competition:

Rotation:

• James Shields
• Jeremy Guthrie
• Jason Vargas
• Bruce Chen
• Wade Davis
• Luke Hochevar
• Yordano Ventura
• Danny Duffy
• Kyle Zimmer

These are the individuals that have been the most discussed for the 2014 rotation. Prior to the Chen signing my guess would be that the Royals rotation would be Shields, Guthrie, Vargas, Hochevar/Davis, Duffy/Ventura. I felt this way because it felt like a very Royals thing to do to expand their starting pitching "inventory" by opening the year with either Hochevar or Davis in the pen, then if they struggle, the loser of the Duffy/Ventura battle would be the first call up. 

Bullpen:

• Greg Holland
• Kelvin Herrera
• Luke Hochevar
• Wade Davis
• Aaron Crow
• Louis Coleman
• Maikel Cleto
• Tim Collins
• Donnie Joseph
• Francisely Bueno
• Bruce Chen

As you can see there are about 11 options on the 40 man for the bullpen. There are a few different ways in which this could play out. Let's try to pain a clearer picture of the competition of the pitching staff:

• Locks: Shields, Guthrie, Vargas, Chen, Holland
• Pretty much locks, but could be moved if they stink in camp: Crow, Hochevar, Davis, Herrera

This accounts for 9 spots of the 12 man staff. here's my guess at how the rest of the spots would play out:

• Left Handed Relievers: Collins and Joseph

Let's add one of the two to the roster for now. That brings our total to 10. Now let's look at the competition for the final two rotation spots:

• Candidates: Chen, Davis, Hochevar, Ventura, Duffy, and Zimmer.

We'll go ahead and assume that one of the Chen, Davis, Hochevar group opens in the rotaiton so that the Royals can expand their starting pitching inventory for the start of the season. We've already counted the three of them so we are still at 10 men. The winner of the Ventura/Duffy/Zimmer battle would be number 11 and the other two would return to the Minors. This leaves one remaining spot for the following:

• Final Bullpen Spot: Coleman, Cleto, Bueno, loser of Collins and Joseph

Of course, the Royals could elect to go with two of the Ventura, Duffy, Zimmer group, which eliminate the final spot in our process. 

For those of you still hoping that the Royals acquire another starter, I think the odds of that decreased with the addition of Bruce Chen. I also don't think the odds were very good prior to the signing of Chen. However, if you believe the reports from Rex Hudler that the Royals have extended Ervin Santana a two year offer, there is still hope that this could happen. It of course would still be reliant on Santana coming down significantly from the five year deal that he is seeking. 

I am still of the opinion that the Royals are a front end start away from being taken seriously as AL Central contenders. This is not to say that Duffy, Ventura, or Zimmer couldn't fill those shoes. At this point though a signing of Bruce Chen helps with the overall depth of the club, but hardly tilts to the needle for the Royals in regards to AL Central contention. 

As for the reports that Bruce Chen's deal is actually the Royals version of the deal granted to Tim Wakefield by the Boston Red Sox, we can only hope that it turns out to be the case. C'mon Chen.

Converting fWAR to Wins; How can KC get to 45.5?

In 2013, the ranked 8th in all of baseball in total team fWAR. The only teams to rank ahead of Kansas City were the Red Sox, Tigers, Rays, Rangers, Athletics, Dodgers, and the Braves. Now we know that the Royals under performed in terms of their Pythagorean win expectancy, which called for them to finish the year 87-75, but I was curious about what the predictive value in fWAR was.

By taking the last three years worth of team fWAR totals, wins, and expected wins I was able to determine that fWAR has a predictive value of approximately .876 for a team's total win count. This number is somewhat lower than the predictive value of expected wins, which over the last three years was .946. Nonetheless, I had a linear formula created for converting Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement to wins. Here is what excel came up with: Wins = (fWAR*0.9069) + 50.772.

In 2013, it took 92 wins to reach baseball's postseason. Working backward, that would mean a team should need to accumulate roughly 45.5 fWAR to reach that threshold. A season ago, the Royals were able to net 42.4 fWAR. This would mean that from 2013 to 2014, Kansas City needs to bring in an additional 3.1 fWAR to close the gap.

Thus far this off-season and throughout 2013, the Royals have already bid farewell to George Kottaras (0.7 fWAR), Adam Moore (0.1), Miguel Tejada (0.4), Chris Getz (-0.1), Carlos Pena (-0.2), Elliot Johnson (-0.2), Jamey Carroll (-0.5), Jeff Francoeur (-0.9), Ervin Santana (3.0), Will Smith (0.5), Bruce Chen (1.4), and Luis Mendoza (0.4). Add this all together and you have 4.6 fWAR to replace just to hold even.

Fortunately, the Royals thus far haven't set on their hands this winter. They've already added Jason Vargas to the rotation (1.5) and Norichika Aoki to the outfield (1.7). In total the Royals are 4.5 fWAR away from that magic 45.5 fWAR mark and 92 wins according to that formula. Where can the Royals pick up these wins?

At this point, there are a few places left that the Royals could pick up a few fWAR:

1. Player Progression - the easiest way to pick up fWAR is for the current crop of players to simply play better than they did last year. Unfortunately, you can't expect an entire roster to progress. As often as players progress, they will regress which typically means the treading of water for a team. The good news for the Royals is that the vast majority of their roster is in a good spot on the aging curve, making progression more likely than regression.
2. Redistribution of IP and PA - Obviously, with players leaving there will be a redistribution of playing time. For example, Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura were worth 0.6 fWAR in 40 innings pitched last season. If they can keep that pace and throw 360 innings, this would create an additional 4.8 in fWAR. Of course, the same can go the other way. With Aoki in the fold David Lough and his 2.4 fWAR figure to factor in less in 2014.
3. Second Base - Given that eight spots in the lineup appear to be set, this is the last spot that could really see an upgrade in 2014. Omar Infante was worth 3.1 fWAR in 2013. Mark Ellis was worth 1.8. Howie Kendrick worth 2.7. Second base won't close the whole gap, but at this point it is the Royals most surefire way to inch closer to 45.5 fWAR in 2014.
4. Bench - The final spot for the Royals to continue to upgrade is their bench. Last season the Royals had an excellent bench in terms of fWAR. That bench has already been weakened at back up catcher. The Royals look to have a good group of back up outfielders, and with Emilio Bonifacio pushed to a super utility role throughout the season it could provide just a slight bump in the bench's season long fWAR total.
5. Starting Pitcher - The Royals already have brought in Jason Vargas, and they already have a few in house options to fill the final two rotation spots. However, if the Royals brought in a starter with decent value to replace the innings provided by Bruce Chen and Wade Davis in the four spot, the Royals could net another easy positive gain.

As you have probably realized right now, Kansas City is at a point on the win curve in which each little piece of marginal value is critical. This is why the Kottaras decision was so infuriating. It simply created an additional half win that Kansas City would need to find.

At this point, second base is the key spot moving forward. The Royals need to find an answer here. If they can do that they'll really close the gap heading into camp. It is much more realistic to need your lineup to pick up an extra 1.5 wins in progression than it is to ask them to pick up 3.5 wins in progression. I'll be severely disappointed if Emilio Bonifacio heads to Surprise with a starting job to lose.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams

Royals Sign Jason Vargas

The Royals made another one of their "major announcements" this afternoon, this time the news being that the team had reached a four year, $32 million pact with left hander Jason Vargas.

Jason Vargas is actually a pitcher that I have advocated for the Royals to acquire before, but I have to admit that a four year deal is two more years than I am comfortable. I realize that in free agency, you typically have to give one more year than you would like, so I would have been alright with three (allegedly this is what the Vargas camp was demanding.)

There have been whispers that the Royals were actually able to lower the annual value of the deal, while obtaining an extra year of team control. For instance, if Vargas was demanding 3 years, $30 million, the Royals are theoretically paying an extra $2 million for another year of control. What do you think, is an extra year at marginal additional cost worth it? Where would you draw the line for the extra year in terms of additional guaranteed money? $2 million? $3 million? $5 million? Ultimately, at just $8 million per year this isn't a deal that should cripple the payroll.

Another comment that I heard regarding the Vargas deal is that while four years seems like to much the market says otherwise. Really? Are you referring to the market that has hardly been set yet. A far superior, albeit older, pitcher Tim Hudson received two years at $24 million. Injury prone, but extremely talented Josh Johnson netted himself $8 million a season, unfortunately it was just a one year contract. I don't know that the market for Vargas has been set, but those two signings don't scream to me that Vargas should require a four year contract.

The most similar pitchers to Jason Vargas to hit free agency over the last couple of seasons are guys that Royals fans should be very familiar with. Jeremy Guthrie and Bruce Chen are both flyball pitchers with less than stellar strike out rates. Guthrie received a $25 million deal over three years that many people believe was too large of a contract. Chen on the other, perhaps the most comparable pitcher to Vargas in baseball over the past three seasons, will definitely not be receiving four years this winter.

I can't help but wonder, will this really be the only upgrade to the rotation this offseason. On several occasions we've heard that the Royals are only looking to add one starter, well if that proves to be true they definitely went the safe route. Vargas doesn't have the upside of other available options, but he is a safe bet to post an ERA around 4.00 to 4.50.

After missing out on Josh Johnson and Tim Hudson, did the Royals hit the panic button? Not wanting to be the last team standing when the music turned off? Was the Royals interest in Phil Hughes exaggerated or has the bidding already surpassed what the Royals were willing to spend.

Personally, I think we'll see the Royals bring in another starter before February 14 gets here. I don't think Vargas is a bad option, only that it seems like an overpay and just the latest edition of Dayton Moore's front office jumping the market. Will this instance prove to be another poor piece of judgement in the way the market is heading? Only time will tell.

Royal Rewind Wrap Up (10-22-12)

Yesterday as I was flipping through channels and trying to ignore the "must watch" TV of the third and final Presidential Debate, I came across "Royal Rewind" on Fox Sports Midwest.  It had already been going on for a half hour or so, but I caught most of the last half.  Here are some thoughts by a few Royals personnel from the Royal Rewind.  I am only paraphrasing what they said.

Ned Yost

• Losing Paulino and Duffy hurt the most. Rotation would hinge around those guys and both were doing great at time they got hurt.

Although Felipe Paulino was pitching like an "ace" before he got hurt, Danny Duffy wasn't pitching exceptional.  Obviously, losing those two pitchers hurt the rotation badly, but one could also make an argument that losing Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez for the first half of the season was just as devastating. Oh and we were playing Yuniesky Betancourt.

• Moose has improved, gold glove caliber third baseman. Production was pretty good for first full year in big leagues.

Mike Moustakas has improved, especially on defense.  He led all 3B in UZR in 2012 at 16.8. This mark put him ahead of the likes of David Wright, and Adrian Beltre.  Moose was also 2nd among 3B in the Majors in UZR/150 at 15.2 only behind David Wright at 16.8.  Moose was hot the first half of the season where he slugged .490 and hit 15 long balls.  Post All-Star Break he was awful. He had an OPS of .586 with a putrid 5 homers.  Don't get me wrong, I love Moustakas, and I still think in terms of his first year he had a real solid year overall.  But if the Royals want to compete for division championships Moose (or Hoz) will both have to be All-Star caliber players in my opinion.

• Hoz really struggled

Boy did he.  Eric Hosmer was incredibly tough to watch most of the year; and not just at the plate.  He was hard to watch on defense as well, thanks to his windmill digging style and the tendency to fling the ball across the field.  Like Moustakas, Hosmer will have to become an All-Star caliber player in order for the Royals to compete year in and year out.

• Ryan Lefebvre asked Ned something along the lines of it was as simple as starting pitching for the Royals to become a contender.
• Ned: "It's that simple really" Experience is extremely valuable and core is set on the field (lineup).
• Bullpen is efficient, need a couple starters and we should be in good shape.

Is it as simple as SP? Well in some ways yes it is.  We desperately need 2 or 3 starters that can pitch somewhat like Jeremy Guthrie did for the Royals, or even Luis Mendoza.  Luke Hochevar should not be in the rotation next year. Period.  I know I'm not the only fan who is saying this, in fact, its most likely a choir of Royals fans saying this.  I still think there is more to the Royals competing, and that is what I said earlier: Moustakas and Hosmer living up to star potential. Or at least one of them.

Steve Physioc

• Holland was fantastic and has makeup and mentality to be a closer

I agree, he looked great. Love his strikeout ability.

• Guthrie raised the entire rotation up, Mendoza pitched better (when Guthrie came) and Chen pitched better too.

Guthrie raised the rotation up because he pitched very well, Mendoza was consistently slightly above average and Bruce Chen was terrible for the most part, I don't get the love for Chen.

Rex Hudler

• Bruce Chen set the tone for rotation
• Led the entire season
• "Raise the Roof in 13"

Oh Rex. Chen really led the staff all year with his 5.07 ERA and becoming the human launching pad by giving up 33 dingers on the year. You amaze me Rex.

Royals Acquire Guthrie for Sanchez

Early this morning we learned that the Kansas City Royals acquired Jeremy Guthrie from the Colorado Rockies for Jonathan Sanchez. I have to admit that when Sanchez was DFA-ed earlier in the week I fully expected him to request his papers and move on. Instead, the Royals were somehow able to grab at least something for perhaps the most disappointing pitcher ever to don the Royals blue.

Jeremy Guthrie entering 2012 was a guy who could be relied upon to provide his team with 200 innings of average to slightly above average performance. He wasn't a front end guy, but he was consistent and dependable, the kind of guy that the Royals just can't seem to find when filling out their own rotation.

However, in 2012 things took a turn for the worse. Guthrie was traded to the Rockies and as a fly ball pitcher it wasn't exactly a match made in heaven. Opposing hitters have absolutely crushed Guthrie particularly in Coors Field where they are hitting .368/.415/.720. I'll give you a second to take that in. In 9 games in Coors Field this season Guthrie has turned National League lineups into lineups that would include guys like The Great Bambino, The Sultan of Swat, The King of Crash, and Babe Ruth making every hitter seem as though they were an alter ego of the greatest hitter of all time.

While Sanchez's problems seem to stem from a loss in velocity that eliminated his best weapon, which in turn forced him to rely on other less dynamic pitches resulting in a total loss of command, (exhale) Guthrie appears to have simply lost the ability to throw the ball past hitters. His walk rate is up over three for the first time since his rookie season, but it is his drop in strikeout rate by over one per nine innings and a doubling in his home run rate that has been a huge problem.

The good news is this, Kauffman Stadium while not a pitcher's park does do a good job of suppressing home runs. Guthrie is a fly ball pitcher that has never had the opportunity to pitch in a park that favors fly ball pitchers. This season, Guthrie's HR/FB has nearly doubled from last year all the way to 18.6%. This is an astronomical number and if Kauffman can push it back down to his around 10% Guthrie should at least be serviceable. This may be asking for a lot, but don't forget about  Bruce Chen whom posted HR/FB of 17.4% and 21.4% in Baltimore and Texas before seeing that number shrink to 11% and then eventually settling at 8.1% for the following two seasons.

Also of note, Sanchez's poor performance stemmed largely from a decrease in velocity. However, this is not the case with Guthrie whose velocity seems to have stayed constant based on Fangraphs' pitch data. Hopefully, Guthrie will be an example of a guy whose game just didn't fit the park in which he was playing. Based on his pitch selection, he hasn't lost confidence in any of his pitches, so perhaps a change of scenery will do him some good. Although, I have to admit that this is an optimistic take on a guy with a 6.35 ERA.

Ultimately, this isn't a trade to get to worked up about. Both starters are going to be free agents after the season and both are owed roughly the same amount of money. I'm sure what both teams are hoping is that moving back into the leagues in which the starters found success will do them both good. For the Royals, Guthrie will hopefully find a way to at least eat innings through the remainder of the season, saving the bullpen a bit from the incredible taxation they've had to pay. At this point it is hard to imagine that either Guthrie or Sanchez will pitch for their new teams past the end of September.

Looking Ahead: The Rotation

Unfortunately, we are 40 games into the season and the Royals sit just 16-24. It doesn't take an astute observer to point out that the major flaw of this team and largest hindrance on future optimism has been its rotation. So what are we looking at to open 2013? Can the rotation at least be average? 

Potential Rotation Members Returning:

• Luke Hochevar
• Felipe Paulino
• Bruce Chen
• Danny Duffy* (Won't be back until June at the earliest.)

If you are still a believer in Hochevar, the Royals are two starters short, if not Kansas City will need to fill three spots. What the Royals do with these two openings will be critical, if they play it safe as they did last off season, an average rotation is likely a pipe dream. But let's keep in mind that the Royals may not necessarily have to fill all the open spots via free agency. So who could be ready from the farm?

• Mike Montgomery- With 35 starts in AAA, it'll just take a few dominate starts for Montgomery to break into the majors. Considering he has about 20 starts left in this season, he'll likely be ready to bust in next season. (We hope.)
• Will Smith- People tend to forget about Smith, because the upside just isn't as high for the former Angels farmhand. But the Royals feel very strongly that he has a near Major League arm and that eventually he could hold down a spot at the back of the rotation.
• Jake Odorizzi- Having proven himself in AA, he has the remainder of the summer to do the same in Omaha. He may not open in Kansas City next season, but there's a good chance he'll be in the mix to do so. 

(I've chosen not to include either Chris Dwyer or John Lamb because both have yet to prove themselves in AA. They could easily break into the Majors at some point in 2013, but we're looking at what the rotation could be to open the season.)

There's another guy that should be given the chance to start in 2013. The Royals paid a lot of lip service to Aaron Crow in the rotation entering 2012, but when Joakim Soria lost his season to Tommy John, the Royals felt Crow was needed to much in the bullpen. Considering the way the rotation has gone thus far, come mid-August Crow absolutely should be given the opportunity to start every fifth day. If Crow pitches even average in that month and a half, he should be given a rotation spot entering 2013.

So there's seven possibilities heading into 2013. If two out of Montgomery, Odorizzi, and Crow show they are ready to hold down rotation spots the Royals rotation will already receive an upgrade. Sure there would be some growing pains, but the talent and upside would be there. 

I also find it very unlikely that the front office would keep their hands out of free agency should the rotation continue to be as bad as it has been thus far. Fortunately for Kansas City, the upcoming free agent crop appears to be strong on the pitching side of things. The most intriguing name of the group for most of us is Zack Greinke. Personally, I expect him to be priced way out of the Royals range.

Another name to keep an eye on would be Kansas City's own and Missouri State prospect Shaun Marcum. If the Royals were able to net any hometown discount at all he would make a ton of sense. In seven seasons he boasts a career 3.74 ERA with a career K/BB of 2.64. 

Obviously, the road bump that Mike Montgomery has encountered is nerve racking. Clearly, the current rotation is a cause for concern. However, Chen continues to defy odds and it isn't hard to imagine him at least being a serviceable back end guy in 2013. Paulino could be the best starter on the roster. Personally, I could see him as a 2 or 3 on an average staff. If the Royals go get a free agent the Royals will have a make shift 1 (albeit most likely not an ace).

Finally, out of Luke Hochevar, Mike Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi, Nate Adcock and Will Smith, you need two to be the 3 and 4 starters. Obviously, several of the aforementioned guys offer more upside than the Royals have had in past rotations. Oh, and don't forget Danny Duffy will be back in June and John Lamb, Chris Dwyer, Jason Adam, and Yordano Ventura could be knocking at the door soon after. 

The Royals don't necessarily need to trade for a front end starter. The possibility exists that the rotation could be stronger next year than this year simply by giving the right guys the opportunity. I'd prefer to see the Royals take a more aggressive approach. There are free agents that would make sense, that could round out the front end. There's no reason to sell out for the ace, if the Kansas City's in contention next July, maybe then it will be time.

Pull the Trigger

By now Royals fans are well aware the free agent starter Roy Oswalt is targeting a one year deal at around $8 million. But now there are also rumblings that fellow free agent starter Edwin Jackson has lowered his asking price from 5 years, 65 million all the way down to a one year deal. Let me make this perfectly clear, if the Royals aren't involved on these two starters and they wind up signing for one year deals elsewhere, the Royals will have missed a huge opportunity.

The rumors have been clear that Oswalt is looking to land a one year deal with a contender, something I can totally understand. However, when it comes to professional athletes, I've learned that there is always a dollar figure that can buy them out of their notions of going to a winner, or staying near home, or whatever else for that matter. Not to mention if Oswalt came to Kansas City, I'm sure the top reason he'd give to the press is that the Royals are on the verge of contention and that he wants to be a part of something special in Kansas City.

The Royals have the money to spend in their current budget. The team is right around $60 million for 2012, after being over $70 million in both 2009 and 2010. In fact, there was a time when the Royals payroll was closer to $80 million than 70. Last year the payroll was in the $35-40 million dollar range. So it isn't unrealistic at all to assume that the Royals possess the flexibility that would be necessary to add another starter into the budget. The Royals would likely have to pay more than 'a contender' to lure Oswalt or Jackson in, but ultimately money talks.

In fact, Dayton Moore himself has even stated that the team was looking into acquiring another starter, before ultimately deciding to take the prudent route and saving the final rotation spot for one of the kids. If you believe that the fifth rotation spot belongs to Duffy, Crow, Teaford, or Montgomery, that's fine. But personally I think all of the aforementioned pitchers could use more time in Omaha honing their craft.

The Rays have possibly the best rotation depth in all of baseball. In 2012, there will likely be two starters that don't make the Rays rotation that would be one of the best starters on the Royals roster.Look at the manner in which the Rays have developed their starters. The Rays develop their starters with patience.

There is a belief that pitchers have to make adjustments at the next level. Many Royals fans are of the opinion that Danny Duffy has learned all that he can in Omaha. They would argue that sending him to Omaha to begin 2012 would serve no purpose developmentally. They may be right, I am no expert in pitcher development. However, I would point to the Rays model, which has been pretty effective over the past few seasons. Look how many innings some of their prospects threw in the upper levels, before becoming fixtures in the rotation:

David Price: 109.1

Matt Moore: 155

Matt Garza: 183.1

Alex Cobb: 187

Jeremy Hellickson: 307

Alexander Torres: 323.2

Jeff Niemann: 361

Wade Davis: 399.1

Of course Matt Moore, Alex Cobb, and Alexander Torres could all add more innings in 2012. Also of note is that the starter with the least amount of innings in the upper levels is David Price, who is probably the most advanced college arm ever outside of Stephen Strasburg (Strasburg by the way threw just 66.1 innings in the upper levels). 

Here's a look at where the Royals arms stand in the upper level inning count:

John Lamb: 68

Jake Odorizzi: 68.2

Danny Duffy: 81.2

Aaron Crow: 119.1

Chris Dwyer: 159

Mike Montgomery: 210.1

Everett Teaford: 219.2

The Rays are arguably the best team in professional baseball right now in terms of developing starting pitchers and keeping those pitchers healthy at the Major League level. Thanks to a patient approach that waits for starters to force their hand they have successfully developed a deep starting rotation. As a result of this rotation they have been able to compete in the toughest division in baseball, despite financial restrictions that their rivals don't face.

Like I have said, I'm not an expert on prospect development. I am merely looking at what the best have done and wondering aloud if the Royals would be wise to emulate it. As it stands there is one open rotation spot for 2012. The rotation at this point consists of Bruce Chen, Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, and Felipe Paulino. If the Royals were to add another starter on a one year deal the benefit could be twofold. 

First, the Royals would strengthen their rotation in the short run. But also Danny Duffy, Aaron Crow, and Mike Montgomery would all be allowed to return to Omaha, where they could continue to develop. At some point a rotation spot will open up as the result of injury or poor performance and then the most deserving of three can get the promotion to Kansas City. Later another spot will open up and perhaps even another. By Opening Day 2013, there will likely be plenty of room in the rotation for all three should they deserve it and the rotation at that point could be a force.

There are also service time benefits of a plan such as this. If Aaron Crow spends some time in the minors his free agency will be pushed back a season. If Mike Montgomery comes up at mid season his free agency and super two status could both be pushed back a season. If Danny Duffy spends a few weeks in Omaha, his Super Two status could be pushed back by a season. 

By adding another starter now the Royals could save themselves millions of dollars in arbitration and even gain some extra team control. I'm sure the Royals are aware of all of this and considering Luis Mendoza is out of options they may have a plan for starting him in the rotation to reach these benefits. Mendoza isn't a bad depth player, but if the Royals are serious about contending he won't open the season in the rotation.

There are two very talented starting pitchers that could be available on one year deals. The benefits of signing one of them could reach far beyond improving the Opening Day rotation. If the division is going to be as tight  as I believe it will be, the addition of either starter could propel the Royals into a tighter race. More wins means staying in contention longer. Staying in contention longer means more ticket sales. More ticket sales mean more money. 

Even if the Royals fall out of contention, both Oswalt and Jackson would be hot commodities on the trade market in July. If they perform as expected they would both be worth a decent prospect in return, and will have already served their value in allowing the Royals pitching prospects more development time. 

If I was sure that the Royals would take their extra financial flexibility in 2012, place it in a bank account and allow it to accumulate interest until Hosmer and Moustakas could be extended I would consider that route. But I can't be sure that the funds would roll over in such a manner. However, if signing Edwin Jackson or Roy Oswalt paid out all of the potential dividends the financial hit it would take to sign them would be minute. 

There is obviously risk involved, but the Royals most glaring weakness is starting pitching and right now there are two starters that could upgrade this staff. If the Royals can grab one of them on a one year deal, well I think I've been pretty clear on potential rewards of that. If the Royals can't afford them, well shame on the Royals for jumping the gun and dishing out $4.5 million to Bruce Chen and another $2 million to Yunieskey Betancourt.

It may not be realistic to expect the Royals to make anymore major moves this offseason. But it isn't unrealistic to believe that they could afford to do so. There's an opportunity, I just hope the Royals pounce. Pull the trigger and let's make the AL Central a two horse race in 2012.

Royals resign Chen

SI's Jon Heyman reports that the Royals have signed Bruce Chen to a two year deal worth $9 million guaranteed, with up to $1 million in incentives and up to $1 million in roster bonuses. I have heard that the report is premature, but I tend to believe it is probably correct.

I have several issues with this signing, the first of which is time. Why are the Royals making this deal with so many pitchers still on the market? Why not wait and see if the market forces Chen or another option to take less than they were hoping for. If the Royals were afraid that Chen would be signed soon, oh well, take the pick and smile.

To me your evaluation of Chen as a pitcher hinges on what type of fan you are. Do you value ERA? Or do you evaluate Chen based on his xFIP? Personally I think that when reviewing a season xFIP doesn't really matter, because luck is part of the game. However, when using one season's statistics to look toward the future I believe the more advanced statistics are way better than the crudeness of ERA.

For the past two seasons Chen has been the top starter to wear a Royals uniform. In that time he has also developed a cult following thanks to the work of Will Ferrell and company. For some fans this alone seems to raise Chen's value, but I digress.

Now in the KC Star Dayton Moore suggested that the club would still like to add two starters. If the team did this they would have a rotation of Hochevar, Sanchez, Chen, Paulino and the free agent. Meaning Duffy could begin the season in Omaha to ensure he misses Super Two and to allow him to develop just a little bit more. Eventually one of those starters falters or gets hurt and luckily you have depth.

I am all for depth., but guaranteeing $9 million to Chen doesn't seem like a depth move. It seems like a scared move. As in the Royals are scared they will miss out on other targets and won't have the security of Bruce Chen once the time comes.

Personally, Chen was my final back up plan. If all else failed, I would have loved to see the Royals bring back Chen. Especially if the deal could have been for one year, with some sort of option for the second. I would have been all for that deal. But promising Bruce Chen two years when there are so many other options out there seems silly to me.

Even if you don't believe that the Royals have other options on the free agent market, surely you can admit that there are several internal options that could be just as strong as Chen (Montgomery, Crow, Teaford). If you look to the 2013 season you may be able to throw several more starters into the mix as better options.

For me Jeff Francis would have been a better option to return to Kansas City next season. I see 2011, as similar seasons between Francis and Chen. Both are projected to post a 4.22 ERA by Bill James in 2012. But James also projects Francis to post a significantly stronger FIP, a prediction that would strongly resemble what happened in 2011, when Francis despite having an ERA nearly a full run higher than Francis, showed stronger peripheral numbers.

In the end, with the pitchers being so similar, I would have preferred Francis for the simple fact that Chen leaving would bring the Royals a draft pick. Surely that counts for something right? To me if the pitchers pitch the same in 2012 as they did 2011, it is a no brainer that Francis and a draft pick would be the more appealing option.

At this point we can't know what Francis will sign for, but early indications are that he will receive a similar deal for 2012 that he got for 2011. If Francis could have been had on a one year offer this becomes an even more obvious decision.

There are some pitchers that are able to consistently outperform their FIP, and I do think that Chen could be one of those guys. For the past two seasons he has carved out a Jamie Moyer kind of career. I wouldn't be shocked if Chen continued this trend. But personally I'm not confident enough in these odds to wager a two year, $9 million commitment.

There is also the issue of durability. For a long time you could pencil Jamie Moyer for right around 200 innings pitched. Even in 2009, when this figure dropped to 162, it would have been the second highest of Bruce Chen's career. If I knew I could count on Chen to log 200 innings I'd feel much more optimistic about this deal. But instead Chen hasn't made over 25 starts in either of the last two seasons.

Look around the Royals' rotation. Who is eating innings and protecting the bullpen? Hochevar has proven to be a bit injury prone over the last couple of seasons. Paulino has never logged over 140 Big League innings. Jonathan Sanchez battled injuries for most of 2011. Danny Duffy is a young arm that probably isn't ready to jump over 200 innings.

Let's hope Dayton Moore is serious when he talks about bringing in another starter, because for in my opinion this team will definitely need it at some point. But if you do bring in another free agent starter you basically assure yourself that Aaron Crow and/or Everett Teaford won't be shifting to the rotation and that Mike Montgomery won't be winning a spot in the rotation with a spectacular Spring.

The Royals rotation is probably stronger today than it was yesterday. But is it stronger than it was in 2011? Not in my opinion. Chen outperformed his peripherals, given this and his position on the aging curve regression should be expected. If he regresses at all the Royals rotation doesn't improve because of this deal.

Ultimately it isn't a horrible deal, but it isn't suave either. It is a deal that makes me feel uneasy. I hope that Chen continues to find the fountain of youth and can continue to defy the numbers and post quality seasons. If he does it is hard to argue with bring back the reigning Royals pitcher of the year for just $9 million guaranteed.

Edinson Volquez?

It's no secret that the Kansas City Royals have one priority entering the offseason: starting pitching. Everyone of course is itching for the Royals to net a proven top tier guy. You know, the kind of guy that can slide into the one spot and immediately turn this team into a contender.

Unfortunately bringing in a guy of that caliber and with that kind of track record is far from automatic. The free agent market bares little options, which could cause contracts to become bloated. While the trade market will undoubtedly be a costly venture in terms of prospects.

So what if the Royals can't net the sure fire front end starter that they so desire? Do we just enter 2012 with the same group, hoping for better results? How about instead Kansas City takes a flier on a buy low guy. There are quite a few of these out there, but I'd like to second the motion made by must follow Royals' tweeter Doublestix. The Royals should at least, check in on the price of Edinson Volquez.

As a rookie, Edinson Volquez took the National League by storm, by going 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA in 196 innings. However, three years later he is coming off his worst season as a professional, in 108.2 innings he posted a 5-7 record with an era of 5.71. So what happened?

Here are his rate stats from 2008: 9.46 K, 4.27 BB, 0.64 HR good for a xFIP of 3.84.
And from 2011: 8.61 K, 5.38 BB, 1.57 HR and a xFIP of 4.08.

Obviously losing nearly a K per 9 innings and increasing your walk rate by over 1 per 9 innings is going to hurt your numbers for the year. But the real killer for Volquez was his spike in home runs allowed. In 2008, Volquez allowed just 8% of fly balls to leave the yard. But in 2011, this number has spiked to 20.7%.

Considering that Volquez's groundball percentage has actually improved from 46.3% in 2008, to 52.4% in 2011 I would definitely be willing to make the reasonable assumption that Volquez's home run rate in 2011 was more a result of bad luck than poor performance.

Do I believe that he can drop back down into singled digits in his home run per fly ball percentage? No, I think that would unlikely. However, do I think his improving ground ball rate could decrease his home runs allowed? Of course I do. Another thing that could really help Volquez's home run per 9 innings rate is a move to Kauffman Stadium.

Kauffman plays as a pretty neutral park. However, this isn't the case for home runs. Because of the deep power alleys at the K, offense comes more from players hitting loads of double and posting high averages. But Kauffman has a long standing history of depreciating home runs (as evidenced by the Royal single season home run record of 36.)

Bruce Chen is a fly ball guy that for back to back season has been able to outperform his xFIP numbers thanks to the K's spacious outfield dimensions. For these reasons I would expect that Volquez's home run rate should dip back down under 1 in 2012 should he pitch for the Kansas City Royals.

Of course there is another major concern for Volquez, and that is his increasing walk rate. But this is what makes him such an appealing buy low option. Because reasonably if he can just get the right pitching coach, or make the right adjustment, he would immediately be a front end starter.

I say this because it is apparent to me that Volquez's stuff could be just as dominate as ever. His fastball averaged 93.7 mph in 2011, virtually the same speed as 2008. His O-Swing% (pitches a batter swings at out of the strike zone) is actually up from 2008 by 4.6% to 28.6%. This obviously could be in part to throwing more pitches out of the zone, however, stuff wise a percentage this high would indicate that batters are still being fooled by his pitches.

His contact percentage (percentage of swings a batter makes contact on pitches) has actually dropped by 0.2% to 73.6%. I'm not suggesting this is statistically significant, merely pointing out that the stuff is just as much there now as it was in 2008.

Volquez is just 28 years old. He will be arbitration eligible for the second time this winter and would be under team control for two more seasons. He made only $1.63 million in 2011. Considering the numbers he posted, he probably won't receive much of a raise for 2012. This could make it difficult to pry him from Cincinnati, but not impossible.

I don't believe it would take much to acquire Volquez. The Royals continue to have a strong farm system, despite graduating several of their top guys in 2011. If the Royals could acquire Volquez for a couple mid-level prospects, I would immediately pull the trigger.

The Royals have obtained two quality pitchers for next to nothing: Felipe Paulino and Joakim Soria. Both of these guys were loved by both the stats department and scouts in the organization. I see no reason why Edinson Volquez couldn't be the third pitcher to this party.

Domin-Chen in One Game Playoff

Ken Rosenthal greeted us this morning with what I find to be an incredibly intriguing bit of rumor. The Red Sox are interested in acquiring a starter for a potential one game playoff against the Rays. At the top of their list? Bruce Chen.

The Rays of course have struggled at times this season against Left Handed pitching and by bringing a starter the Red Sox could avoid using Wakefield or Lackey on just three days rest.

To be blunt the Red Sox are desperate. They are in the midst of one of, if not the, worst September collapse in baseball history. With that being said I don't feel like a trade for Bruce Chen would be as desperate as it would seem on the surface.

Bruce Chen is going to be a type B free agent at the end of the season. As we have seen in the past couple of seasons teams are really starting to understand the true value of compensation picks. Last winter the Blue Jays traded for Miguel Olivo just so they could net a comp pick for him.

For this reason the Royals should absolutely demand at least the equivalent of a 2012 draft Sandwich selection. Quite frankly they should demand just a little more considering, Bruce Chen would be getting the opportunity to salvage the Red Sox season in a one game playoff.

If the Red Sox are willing to pay this price the Royals should absolutely do the deal. Then they could bring back Bruce Chen next season AND receive value for him. As opposed to if they elect to hang on to him, only being able to receive value OR bring him back. You can't get the compensation pick if you resign the player.

Personally I can't see the Red Sox offering the value necessary to make this deal worth it from a Royals perspective. I think they are hoping the Royals don't value the potential pick highly enough and trade Chen for a lottery ticket.

Obviously Chen is slated to be on the hill for the Royals tonight, so the Red Sox better get to work if they truly want to Red Sox nation to be screaming C'mon Chen against the Rays in a couple of days.

Trade Deadline Wrap Up

I realize that I'm a bit late to the party when it comes to offering my thoughts on the trade deadline, but here I am anyway and I have something to say. People need chill out with the horrible deadline talk.

To be clear I want to see Lorenzo Cain in centerfield for the Royals. But we need to keep in mind that he isn't an elite guy. Not the kind of player that you have to clear a spot for at least. For that reason the Royals shouldn't just ship off an outfielder for scraps in order to make room for the man.

Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur are both having great years. Cabrera can, without a doubt, be brought back next season simply by offering him arbitration, which he will be required to accept. Jeff Franceur has a mutual option and I expect both sides to exercise it.

So both players should be back next season and should be key components in Mission 2012. I realize that entering the season neither played a role for the Mission, but make no mistake both are deserving of spots now. If the Royals are lucky enough next season to not have an outfielder go down with injury and the outfield performs like it has in 2011, then Lorenzo Cain spends the season as a fourth outfielder in Kansas City or the everyday centerfielder in Omaha and in 2013 the job is his.

If Cabrera or Francoeur regress or go down with injury, Cain assumes the role as the everyday centerfielder and the Royals don't miss a beat. Given that neither Cabrera or Francoeur would be under contract after the season the problem would work itself out. If both perform well and the Royals don't contend, well they'll have another deadline to try and make a deal.

It seems as though the fanbase has widely accepted the youth movement and bought into the farm system so much that they are missing the point in this case. The point of having a great farm system is to turn the crop of young talent into a competitive team. The point isn't to fill the roster with the hot prospect every time he declares himself ready, not when you already have a contributor in place at the Major League level.

The Royals have found a good starting centerfielder in Melky Cabrera. Jeff Francoeur has also put together an excellent season, though many Royals' fans are still unwilling to admit it. If the goal is to win a division in 2012, then why would you sell off a proven commodity for scraps just so that you can give an unproven commodity a chance? Not to mention the predicament you get yourself in should an outfielder get hurt or not perform.

Now we don't know what Dayton Moore was offered for either of his outfielders. But what we do know is that the market quickly became saturated with quality guys. Colby Rasmus, Carlos Beltran, Hunter Pence, and Michael Bourn were all dealt, not to mention B.J. Upton appeared to be on the block for the week leading to the deadline.

What the Royals needed was a mid rotation starter to make a deal worthwhile. Francoeur was never going to net that and with the outfield depth on the market we knew that Cabrera wouldn't either. The Royals made the right decision to hold on to the outfielders. Some fans just won't accept it.

As for the pitching side of things, the Royals didn't make any trades either. The market for back rotation starters was almost nonexistent so Dayton Moore held on to his two elderly lefties. Both of which are here are on one year deals and will be gone at the end of the season. I don't advocate resigning either.

Right now Chen may be able to net the Royals a Supplemental pick in the Rule IV draft, but he will need a strong finish to the season and even then a team would have to sign him to a Major League deal for 2012.

Jeff Francis, on the other hand, has been a good innings eater for the Royals but he is no better than a back end guy at this point in his career. The way I see it the Royals rotation for 2012 goes like this: Paulino, Duffy, Hochevar, Montgomery or Crow, plus a free agent signing. Either the Royals bring in a back end guy like Francis, or they go for a front of the rotation guy. They have the money, so if they want to contend in 2012 a front end guy is what we need.

It would have been nice to grab a high upside low level prospect for Francis, but I am not sure that it was even possible. Like I said the market was virtually nonexistent so I can't blame Dayton Moore for holding on to an innings eater in an attempt to take some stress off of the pen for the last two months of the season.

Had we dealt Francis it would have meant a stint in the rotation by Vin Mazzaro, given Davies shoulder inflammation. Even without the trade, I'm sure point we'll see Mazzaro again, but him going four innings a start isn't what our bullpen needs after a taxing season. Hopefully the next time we see him will just be as a spot start and nothing more.

Obviously it would have been great if the Royals could have fleeced a desperate team and brought in a near Major League ready starter with front end potential. But it didn't happen. The Royals did an excellent job in free agency last winter and found two quality outfielders. Now they are going to hang on to them and hopefully they can perform to the same standard in 2012. If they can then the signings in themselves pushed contention forward and that has always been the goal.