Confirmed: Will Smith for Norichika Aoki

Wow! Have the last 12 hours been exciting for us at Royal Revival. First off, what an excellent job by our blog team to get the Will Smith for Norichika Aoki information out there. As we have said before: at this blog we have a very humble amount of connections throughout the baseball industry. Our goal has never been to be an entity that "breaks" stories.

On numerous occasions in the past we have received information and often we are forced to drop subtle hints into our posts as opposed to blasting the information out on Twitter. We have also had an internal debate about we should even take the chance of sending out information when we don't have the means to confirm it with secondary sources. Ultimately, last night our source was confident enough to give us the courage to go ahead and share the information blatantly with the Royals Twitterverse.

Even when we dispersed the information we were careful in our wording. The last thing we wanted was to come off to the Royals Twitterverse as another Scott Swaim. We were then relieved this morning to see that the source was correct in regards to the trade. Following the moment of relief we were then elated to realize that we had just broken a legitimate Major Leaguer for Major Leaguer trade. We have been even more overwhelmed by the congratulatory response that we have received by the fantastic Royals blogosphere.

Don't expect this to become a regular occurrence for us. In our 4+ years as a blog, on one hand you can count the number of moves we have actually broken (a couple of draft picks, a trade and an international signing). Most of what we hear is just internal opinions of players and rumors. Again we normally are careful about the way we sprinkle this information into our posts when we have it.

Now let's get to the deal.

Personally, I think this move makes sense for Kansas City. Between this move and the Dexter Fowler rumors it seems obviously clear that one of the Royals offseason strategies was to deal from their relief corps in an attempt to bring in a right fielder. They have now succeeded in this endeavor.

Before I analyze the implications of this specific trade, I first would like to trace its lineage.

1. Norichika Aoki acquired for Will Smith. 
2. Will Smith acquired with Sean O'Sullivan for Alberto Callaspo
3. Alberto Callaspo acquired for Billy Buckner
4. Billy Buckner drafted in the 2nd Round of the 2004 Amateur Draft

Not too shabby. Thanks to some quality trades, the Royals are still managing to return value for a second round pick that was made nearly a decade ago. So far that pick has netted the Royals 4.2 fWAR with the opportunity to keep on giving. 

As for Aoki, he's an excellent fit for the Royals moving forward. One of my fears entering the offseason was that the Royals would allow history to repeat itself. In an attempt to find a power bat, they would sacrifice defense and on base percentage for home runs and rbi's (Mike Jacobs, cough). Dreams of Mark Trumbo in a Royals uniform danced through my head.

I even wondered if the Royals best course of action might be to go into 2014 with David Lough manning right. After all, in just 96 games he managed to post 2.4 fWAR. Unfortunately, I don't think the Royals trust Lough to post a similar mark in 2014. I would agree.

Lough is extremely BABIP dependent as an offensive player. In 2013, he walked 3% of the time and struck out 15.5% of the time. Both of these marks compare very unfavorably to Aoki who walked at an 8.2% clip and struck out at 5.9%, Based off these numbers I think there is a pretty safe bet that Aoki's offense will be better moving forward despite the difference in age. 

Lough's true value in 2013 stemmed from his stellar defense in right field. The issue is that we aren't dealing with an enormous sample size. Yes, Lough is a strong defender, but is he one of the best in baseball? I don't know that he is. Meanwhile, according to the Fielding Bible Aoki was the fifth most valuable defensive right fielder in baseball a season ago.

I don't know that Aoki provides the Royals with a huge upgrade from Lough's 2013 version. The problem simply was that it would have been very risky for the Royals to count on getting Lough's 2013 version again in 2014. Next season, Aoki will bring the consistency of a strong glove and strong on base percentage to the Royals. For a team with multiple wild cards, it is nice to have a position that they can count on for 2-3 WAR.

As for Smith, he will be missed but his loss won't hurt the Royals. Given his skill set, his value is higher for a team like the Brewers than it is for Kansas City. The Royals seemed to have already sentenced him to life as a reliever. For the Brewers he should get the opportunity to pitch in the back of their rotation. 

Smith is a good relief arm, but I applaud the Royals for dealing from a position of strength. I don't think this move immediately changes the fortunes for the Royals in 2014, but it does fill one of the voids that needed to be addressed this offseason.

One additional note, I've been asked several times how I believe this affects the Beltran talks. In my opinion it doesn't. I've heard that Glass is viewing Beltran as an opportunity to really squash his non-caring image. I think if the Royals do sign Beltran, it means that Butler is on the move. 

If anything this trade this protected the Royals from themselves and their own urge to regularly play Beltran in RF. The Butler vs Beltran debate is better suited for another post. In my opinion, this move does not remove Kansas City from the Beltran equation.

Thank you again to all those who have congratulated us on breaking this trade. We appreciate the support, but most of all we appreciate to talk Royals baseball with you every single day. 

Be sure to follow each of our writers @tipof_arrowhead @PadenBennett22 @Daniel_L_Ware and myself @Landon_Adams. 

Building Depth in the Rotation

"Hopefully, Odorizzi, Smith and Adock are all pitching at Omaha when the season starts." -Royals Club Official

I don't know about you, but this is exactly the kind of quotation I was looking to hear heading into the offseason. I was pretty clear in my last post, that I believe it would be fantastic for the depth of the rotation if the three aforementioned starters began the season in Omaha. It is good to hear that at least one person in the Royals front office shares a similar sentiment.

This is a stark difference than in the past, when Dayton Moore and company were hesitant to block the paths of Major League ready youngsters. Last offseason, it appeared that Edwin Jackson was a perfect fit on a one year deal to bolster a rotation that was clearly going to be a team weakness. Instead, Dayton Moore stood by what he had, stating that they didn't want to take away any spots that could be used for evaluation. Hopefully heading into the 2013 season, we can put aside the notion that we are going to make it through the season with just five starters.

So if the Royals achieve their goal, how many starters will they need to acquire? Right now, they've got Bruce Chen, Luis Mendoza, and Luke Hochevar. If they keep Hochevar, they'll need to acquire two starters. If they cut Hochevar, they'll need three. I've said before that I believe the latter is the optimum route if you are serious about turning around this rotation.

The problem is that the Royals may not feel comfortable cutting Hochevar knowing that they need to fill three spots in the rotation. As easy as we like to believe that may be, it is no small task for any front office. Not to mention, the money involved may be too much. If this is the case, the Royals may feel they have to keep Hochevar in order to have the necessary depth to start the three aforementioned pitchers in Omaha. Obviously, most of us want them to find a way to fill three spots in the rotation so that Hochevar may be cut, while building depth. Let's hope the Royals can find a way to make us happy.

Looking Ahead: The Rotation

Unfortunately, we are 40 games into the season and the Royals sit just 16-24. It doesn't take an astute observer to point out that the major flaw of this team and largest hindrance on future optimism has been its rotation. So what are we looking at to open 2013? Can the rotation at least be average? 

Potential Rotation Members Returning:

• Luke Hochevar
• Felipe Paulino
• Bruce Chen
• Danny Duffy* (Won't be back until June at the earliest.)

If you are still a believer in Hochevar, the Royals are two starters short, if not Kansas City will need to fill three spots. What the Royals do with these two openings will be critical, if they play it safe as they did last off season, an average rotation is likely a pipe dream. But let's keep in mind that the Royals may not necessarily have to fill all the open spots via free agency. So who could be ready from the farm?

• Mike Montgomery- With 35 starts in AAA, it'll just take a few dominate starts for Montgomery to break into the majors. Considering he has about 20 starts left in this season, he'll likely be ready to bust in next season. (We hope.)
• Will Smith- People tend to forget about Smith, because the upside just isn't as high for the former Angels farmhand. But the Royals feel very strongly that he has a near Major League arm and that eventually he could hold down a spot at the back of the rotation.
• Jake Odorizzi- Having proven himself in AA, he has the remainder of the summer to do the same in Omaha. He may not open in Kansas City next season, but there's a good chance he'll be in the mix to do so. 

(I've chosen not to include either Chris Dwyer or John Lamb because both have yet to prove themselves in AA. They could easily break into the Majors at some point in 2013, but we're looking at what the rotation could be to open the season.)

There's another guy that should be given the chance to start in 2013. The Royals paid a lot of lip service to Aaron Crow in the rotation entering 2012, but when Joakim Soria lost his season to Tommy John, the Royals felt Crow was needed to much in the bullpen. Considering the way the rotation has gone thus far, come mid-August Crow absolutely should be given the opportunity to start every fifth day. If Crow pitches even average in that month and a half, he should be given a rotation spot entering 2013.

So there's seven possibilities heading into 2013. If two out of Montgomery, Odorizzi, and Crow show they are ready to hold down rotation spots the Royals rotation will already receive an upgrade. Sure there would be some growing pains, but the talent and upside would be there. 

I also find it very unlikely that the front office would keep their hands out of free agency should the rotation continue to be as bad as it has been thus far. Fortunately for Kansas City, the upcoming free agent crop appears to be strong on the pitching side of things. The most intriguing name of the group for most of us is Zack Greinke. Personally, I expect him to be priced way out of the Royals range.

Another name to keep an eye on would be Kansas City's own and Missouri State prospect Shaun Marcum. If the Royals were able to net any hometown discount at all he would make a ton of sense. In seven seasons he boasts a career 3.74 ERA with a career K/BB of 2.64. 

Obviously, the road bump that Mike Montgomery has encountered is nerve racking. Clearly, the current rotation is a cause for concern. However, Chen continues to defy odds and it isn't hard to imagine him at least being a serviceable back end guy in 2013. Paulino could be the best starter on the roster. Personally, I could see him as a 2 or 3 on an average staff. If the Royals go get a free agent the Royals will have a make shift 1 (albeit most likely not an ace).

Finally, out of Luke Hochevar, Mike Montgomery, Jake Odorizzi, Nate Adcock and Will Smith, you need two to be the 3 and 4 starters. Obviously, several of the aforementioned guys offer more upside than the Royals have had in past rotations. Oh, and don't forget Danny Duffy will be back in June and John Lamb, Chris Dwyer, Jason Adam, and Yordano Ventura could be knocking at the door soon after. 

The Royals don't necessarily need to trade for a front end starter. The possibility exists that the rotation could be stronger next year than this year simply by giving the right guys the opportunity. I'd prefer to see the Royals take a more aggressive approach. There are free agents that would make sense, that could round out the front end. There's no reason to sell out for the ace, if the Kansas City's in contention next July, maybe then it will be time.

Prospect Countdown #17 Will Smith

#17 Will Smith


Age: 22
Position: LHP
Height: 6-5
Weight: 235
B/T: R/L
Acquired: Via trade with Sean O'Sullivan from LAA for Alberto Callaspo
From: Newnan, GA




On July 19, 2011, Will Smith and Kelvin Herrera combined for the first and only no hitter in Northwest Arkansas Naturals history. It was around this point that Will Smith turned his season around. In the month of August, Smith posted a 4-1 record with a 1.91 ERA and a 37:9 K:BB in 42 innings pitched.

A couple of things changed for Smith over the course of the summer. First, the Royals allowed him to start throwing a slider. The slider isn't a plus pitch by any means, but it has granted Smith a much needed weapon against right handed hitters (34 of his 45 walks came against righties, although he did induce ground balls at a much higher clip against them). In addition to the slider, Smith also received a tick up in fastball velocity as the summer progressed.

His fastball which normally has sat in the high 80s, now has crossed the 90 mph threshold and has been clocked as high as 94. He is said to have just average command, but he was able to limit opponents to just 2.51 BB/9, which compares favorably to the league average mark of 3.40.

Smith has the upside of a #4 starter, but could also fit in a spot starter/long reliever role in the Majors. He'll start 2012 in Omaha's rotation.

Picture taken from Milb.com

Prospect Countdown: 30-26

We continue with our top prospect countdown. Keep in mind that I am not a scout, so I use statistical data, and scouting reports from various publications for my information. Some of these players I have seen play, specifically guys that played in Northwest Arkansas last season.

30. Blaine Hardy LHP



Blaine Hardy first caught my attention when in 2009, when he was one of the most consistent pitchers on the Burlington Bees staff. The Royals obviously impressed by Hardy, elected to push him past Wilmington and straight into the Northwest Arkansas bullpen for 2010.

While in Springdale I was able to see Hardy first hand on several occasions and during the early part of the season it became apparent that he was the top option that manager Brian Poldberg had in his bullpen. According to my research during his time with the Naturals not only did he post an era of 0.69, but he also didn't allow a single inherited runner to score, which could be in part due to a very strong pickoff move. The Royals took notice.

After just 26 innings Hardy was granted a promotion to Omaha, there he continued to pitch in the bullpen until the end of the season when he was asked to fill in for the Omaha rotation. Once there he continued to dazzle and wound up posting a 3.49 era in his time at the highest level of minor league competition.

Hardy was drafted in the 22nd round of the 2008 draft. He has a high 80s fastball with a good slider and curveball. He has good command so he controls the plate during his time in the game. Even though he pitched well as a member of the Omaha rotation, I don't believe that his future lies in the rotation and I see him as a middle relief arm. Nonetheless I believe he is major league ready and with a strong showing in Spring and in the early part of the season he should be in Kansas City sooner rather than later.

29. Jeff Bianchi SS



After finally putting together a healthy season long campaign in 2009 and posting solid offensive numbers and adding a decent year with the glove there was a hope among Royals fans that with a strong Spring Bianchi could force Yu-nasty out of the shortstop spot with the big league club. However, Bianchi suffered a season ending injury just as Spring Training began.

With the tommy john surgery people say that it takes about a year recovery. However, with Aviles we found that it takes more like fifteen months until the player is performing back at his previous level. With this in mind it is unlikely that Bianchi will be fully recovered in time to win a major league job out of camp.

Obviously with the newly acquired Escobar and Colon behind him in case Escobar falters, Bianchi will probably never be granted an opportunity to be an everyday shortstop for the Kansas City Royals. However, I think he would have been stretched a bit as a regular. But I do believe that he could be a top notch utility man down the line.

Bianchi has the defensive tools to be able to play both middle infield positions. Plus with a little work in Omaha I could see him playing a strong third and maybe even be a serviceable player in the outfield. Basically I believe that Bianchi could offer Willie Bloomquist type versatility with a much stronger bat. A player that other team's fan bases look at as a potential trade target because he "isn't being given a fair opportunity on the Royals bench."

Good teams become great teams due to players in that mold and I can see Bianchi being that type of player for the Kansas City Royals.

28. Will Smith LHP



When the Royals acquired Will Smith he wasn't an overly exciting piece from a superficial standpoint, but upon review of his development pattern, two thoughts occured. First, what the hell are the Angels doing? Second, this guy has a bit of potential. At the time we were told his potential was as a back of the rotation starter. But I am going to even go as high as saying that Smith could even one day find himself as a quality #3 at the big league level. (Upon saying that even I thought that I was an idiot, but I'm going to stick with it and if I eat my words later it won't be for going with the grain.)

Smith began the season in the California League, but after some injuries caused the Angels to shift around some pitchers he found himself first in double-A Arkansas, then in triple-A Salt Lake City. At the time he was dealt he hadn't found much success. But the Royals realized what needed to be done and they sent him to Wilmington to find himself.

Upon finally getting some consistent time in High-A the level he should have been the entire time, Smith found his stride. In Wilmington he strike out rate jumped and his walk rate disappeared. Then at the end of the season when the organization was attempting to limit innings on some of the other arms, Smith was called upon to make a couple of playoff starts for the Naturals.

Smith commented at one point as saying he felt totally at home with the group and his numbers would indicate such. Which has become a theme for prospects in that group. Perhaps it is good leadership, or good coaching, or a good atmosphere. Whatever it is prospects are feeding off one another in Kansas City's system right now.

Smith pitched extremely well in the playoffs for the Naturals including garnering the final win that crowned the team champions of the Texas League. Smith has a fastball that hovers around 90 mph with a good curveball that I have read could be a plus pitch. However, his changeup is way behind. If he can turn that change into an average offering he should be ready to go. His command is strong and he pounds the strikezone hard.

Smith hasn't done enough to join the Duffy, Dwyer, Lamb, Montgomery group yet. But him and a few others in the system could do that with a strong 2011 campaing. Smith should begin the 2011 season in the Naturals rotation.

27. Tyler Sample RHP



Tyler Sample was disappointing in 2010. After a good season in 2009 and displaying flashes of improved control, it all fell apart in his first trip to full season ball. Tyler Sample has tremendous upside but there is a strong risk that he flames out before he even makes it into the high minors.

At 6-9 Sample has a massive frame that allows him to dial up his fastball into the mid 90s on a consistent basis. He also has a knucklecuve that at times can be just as devastating. His change lags far behind, and his control is obviously a major concern. Hopefully if he can just become average in this regard his stuff will be dominate enough to carry him into a big league rotation where he can hopefully limit hits against him while logging 200 innings.

If he can't develop the control as a starter the Royals could always give him a shot at reliever. There his stuff could continue to play at a high level and perhaps even in short stints his control can improve. I'm not sure how I feel about Sample. If I was a betting man I'd stay away, but with his upside I feel compelled to continue to put him in the top 30. I expect Sample to start the year in Kane County and hopefully the improved environment can help him find himself.

26. Paulo Orlando OF



Paulo Orlando. Maybe it is because of the way his name was called on the Naturals PA, maybe it was because of his walk up song, maybe it was because of his attempt to be the first Brazilian in the Major Leagues, maybe it is because of his tools, maybe it is because when I watch him I imagine him being this team's Willie Wilson. Whatever the reason Paulo Orlando is one of my personal favorite prospects in the entire organization.

Orlando was formerly a track star in Brazil before he pursued a career in professional baseball. His speed translates to the baseball diamond, not as eye opening speed from home to first, but primarily when he glides into third for a triple or scores from second on a line drive to the rightfielder. I say glide because when Orlando runs it is extremely effortless and doesn't look too high energy, think Willie Wilson/B.J. Upton.

But Orlando has always had his speed, his glove, and his hose. But this season in Springdale he showed two other tools some power with a .480 slug and some contact by hitting over .300 for the first time in his career. His plate discipline is going to need to continue to improve, but he made major strides in the 2010 season.

Throughout his time in the Royals organization Orlando has been playing along side Derrick Robinson and sometimes Jarrod Dyson. Due to this he hadn't been given too many opportunities in centerfield. However, when he started hitting home runs Poldberg was instructed by the organization to play Orlando in centerfield multiple times a week.

I believe that his bat plays better in centerfield but if he plays left he would give the Royals a top notch defensive leftfielder. He is a bit old in age but in baseball experience he is young. Due to this he should continue to develop as he gets reps. I think he will split time between Northwest Arkansas and Omaha this season, and I am going to predict a 20/20 year.