Fox Sports' Five Reasons the Royals are Making Playoffs

Last Friday, Jeffrey Flanagan of Fox Sports Kansas City provided Royals fans with a wonderfully written and masterfully crafted essay in which he listed five reasons that the Boys in Blue would find themselves playing games in October. Let's review each of his reasons:

1. Big Game James

Now before you yell out "we had James Shields last year and won 86 games!" let me stop you. You're right we had Shields last year, but we didn't have contract year Shields! And according to Flanagan the idea of being rich will be just the extra motivate that Shields needs to take his game to the next level in 2014. You think James Shields is good now, just wait until he's throwing changeups so good, dollar bills start streaming from his pockets!

2. Filling the Black Holes

Flanagan says it all in his first sentence "it's not like the Royals acquired a couple of Hall of Famers to fill the holes of second base and right field, but it sure feels like it." 

Hell yeah it does! And when you feel like something is true, in virtually every circumstance it proves to be true. If Omar Infante and Nori Aoki don't play like Rogers Hornsby and Babe Ruth, I'll be damned.

3. Alex Gordon

Flanagan points to Gordon's new found security of hitting consistently in the heart of the order as a reason to expect big things for Gordon in 2014. Never mind the fact that Gordon his lead off in over 75% of his games last season. Also, let's ignore the fact that Gordon is entering his age 30 season and is coming off a year in which he posted the worst walk rate of his career and struck out in over 20% of his at bats. All the while seeing his line drive percentage drop to his lowest mark since 2009. 

4. The Vargas Addition

Flanagan opens this one with "it's kind of a tough sell to believe that left-hander Jason Vargas simply will step into the rotation and fill the void left by the Royals' decision not to sign Ervin Santana." 

That's true, but as Flanagan reminds us many didn't expect Santana to be so good last year. This is an excellent report by the Fox Sports reporter. If an Angels cast off was good last year, then it is a given that another one would be a good addition for 2014. 

Vargas could very well be a strong addition to the Royals 2014 rotation, but let's not act like just because it worked with Santana, it is going to work again with the former Angel and Mariner.

5. Closing the Gap on the Tigers

Flanny's got a hunch and he says there's a chance the Tigers slip a notch this season. 

There you have it Royals fans! Rest at ease the Royals are postseason bound! 

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

Looking to Future Rotations

With each passing day that Ervin Santana remains a free agent, more and more Royals fans' confidence grows that Santana could return to Kansas City. While I hate to throw water on to these dreams, I am afraid that I have to.

Santana will not be coming back to Kansas City.

The Royals are too deep into their off-season plans and it is woefully apparent that whether or not it is true, the team is operating with the opinion that $90 million is the break even point. The rotation has four out of five spots left and multiple candidates for the fifth spot that are deserving of a chance with the big league club.

Here's a quick snapshot of the next few years rotations:

2014

1. James Shields
2. Jeremy Guthrie
3. Jason Vargas
4. Bruce Chen
5. TBD

2015

1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. Jason Vargas
3. TBD
4. TBD
5. TBD

2016 & 2017

1. Jason Vargas
2. TBD
3. TBD
4. TBD
5. TBD

Obviously, it is the Royals hope that they can fill their rotation with homegrown talent starting next season. Just a month or so ago, J.J. Picollo even stated that he expects Danny Duffy, Yordano Ventura, Kyle Zimmer, and Sean Manaea all to be ready to hold down big league spots. Also, on the horizon is Jason Adam and Miguel Almonte. 

It does appear that the Royals will have the arms to fill out a couple of spots in their big league rotation, but are they going to be able to fill three spots as soon as next season? 

What if this season Duffy totally loses control and Kyle Zimmer blows out his elbow? Where will that leave the Royals next off-season as they attempt to fill out their rotation. Would it be more economical to sign Santana now when conceivably his price has been diminished or would it be better to jump the market and overpay next off-season for another Vargas/Guthrie type. 

If the Royals were to sign Santana, he could slot into the rotation instead of Bruce Chen for 2014. With the addition of Santana, Chen could slide into a swing man role and the Royals could still have a competition for the final rotation spot. Next season, they'd ideally have established one or two of the Duffy, Ventura, Zimmer bunch and would be able to fill out a rotation with some confidence. 

Given the Royals history of starting pitcher development, it seems incredibly ballsy to expect the the current crop of prospects can fill three spots in next years rotation. This indicates to me that next off-season the Royals will once again have to dip their toes into the starting pitching market of free agency. So I leave you with a final question: would it be better to go over the salary threshold this year to get Santana at below market value, or would it be better to wait and overpay next off-season? 

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams!

22nd Best Rotation in Baseball

On Wednesday, Matthew Pouliot of NBC Sports' Hardball talk took a moment to rank the rotations across Major League Baseball. Somewhat disappointingly, Pouliot concluded that the Royals ranked 22nd in the league and according to his Rotoworld Player Projections would compile a 3.94 ERA over 940 innings pitched. You can view the full list here.

For reference, last season the Royals rotation ranked 12th in baseball with a 3.87 ERA, as well as 4th with 986.2 innings pitched. The issue for the Royals is that much of this rotation success stems from a defense that was one of, if not the best in all of baseball. When we look at Fielding Independent Pitching, the Royals rotation ranking falls to 21st at 4.12 in 2013.

If you give NBC Sports the benefit of the doubt that writer Pouliot has taken into consideration the Royals defensive prowess and is wise enough to not include that in the Royals ranking, then a ranking in the low 20s shouldn't come as a huge surprise to Royals fans. Especially, when you remember that the average sports fan is going to immediately knock the staff for the trade out of Ervin Santana for Jason Vargas.

Ultimately, the success of this rotation will depend on what the Royals get from Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura in 2014. If those two starters can be what many in the organization expect them to be, then this rotation will have no problem posting a better FIP than the one posted by the 2013 version. If those to are duds in 2014, then the Royals will be thankful to have the consistency of Jason Vargas and Bruce Chen on their staff.

At this point, the Royals have six guys who would be deserving of rotation spots to open the season. There is the dependable front end guy (James Shields), the dependable innings eaters (Vargas, Chen, and Jeremy Guthrie), and there are the high upside wild cards (Duffy and Ventura). It is a good blend of options and with Zimmer also on the way, there is even more upside that could reach Kansas City by season's end.

I definitely wouldn't be against a Royals move for another starter (A.J. Burnett or Ervin Santana), and I definitely think the rotation upgrades could have been handled in different measures in the offseason. However, if last year's rotation was strong enough to get the Royals to 86 wins, I see no reason why this rotation couldn't hold course. Obviously, for the Royals to get to the next level, the real key will be improvement on the offensive side of things.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams

Converting fWAR to Wins; How can KC get to 45.5?

In 2013, the ranked 8th in all of baseball in total team fWAR. The only teams to rank ahead of Kansas City were the Red Sox, Tigers, Rays, Rangers, Athletics, Dodgers, and the Braves. Now we know that the Royals under performed in terms of their Pythagorean win expectancy, which called for them to finish the year 87-75, but I was curious about what the predictive value in fWAR was.

By taking the last three years worth of team fWAR totals, wins, and expected wins I was able to determine that fWAR has a predictive value of approximately .876 for a team's total win count. This number is somewhat lower than the predictive value of expected wins, which over the last three years was .946. Nonetheless, I had a linear formula created for converting Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement to wins. Here is what excel came up with: Wins = (fWAR*0.9069) + 50.772.

In 2013, it took 92 wins to reach baseball's postseason. Working backward, that would mean a team should need to accumulate roughly 45.5 fWAR to reach that threshold. A season ago, the Royals were able to net 42.4 fWAR. This would mean that from 2013 to 2014, Kansas City needs to bring in an additional 3.1 fWAR to close the gap.

Thus far this off-season and throughout 2013, the Royals have already bid farewell to George Kottaras (0.7 fWAR), Adam Moore (0.1), Miguel Tejada (0.4), Chris Getz (-0.1), Carlos Pena (-0.2), Elliot Johnson (-0.2), Jamey Carroll (-0.5), Jeff Francoeur (-0.9), Ervin Santana (3.0), Will Smith (0.5), Bruce Chen (1.4), and Luis Mendoza (0.4). Add this all together and you have 4.6 fWAR to replace just to hold even.

Fortunately, the Royals thus far haven't set on their hands this winter. They've already added Jason Vargas to the rotation (1.5) and Norichika Aoki to the outfield (1.7). In total the Royals are 4.5 fWAR away from that magic 45.5 fWAR mark and 92 wins according to that formula. Where can the Royals pick up these wins?

At this point, there are a few places left that the Royals could pick up a few fWAR:

1. Player Progression - the easiest way to pick up fWAR is for the current crop of players to simply play better than they did last year. Unfortunately, you can't expect an entire roster to progress. As often as players progress, they will regress which typically means the treading of water for a team. The good news for the Royals is that the vast majority of their roster is in a good spot on the aging curve, making progression more likely than regression.
2. Redistribution of IP and PA - Obviously, with players leaving there will be a redistribution of playing time. For example, Danny Duffy and Yordano Ventura were worth 0.6 fWAR in 40 innings pitched last season. If they can keep that pace and throw 360 innings, this would create an additional 4.8 in fWAR. Of course, the same can go the other way. With Aoki in the fold David Lough and his 2.4 fWAR figure to factor in less in 2014.
3. Second Base - Given that eight spots in the lineup appear to be set, this is the last spot that could really see an upgrade in 2014. Omar Infante was worth 3.1 fWAR in 2013. Mark Ellis was worth 1.8. Howie Kendrick worth 2.7. Second base won't close the whole gap, but at this point it is the Royals most surefire way to inch closer to 45.5 fWAR in 2014.
4. Bench - The final spot for the Royals to continue to upgrade is their bench. Last season the Royals had an excellent bench in terms of fWAR. That bench has already been weakened at back up catcher. The Royals look to have a good group of back up outfielders, and with Emilio Bonifacio pushed to a super utility role throughout the season it could provide just a slight bump in the bench's season long fWAR total.
5. Starting Pitcher - The Royals already have brought in Jason Vargas, and they already have a few in house options to fill the final two rotation spots. However, if the Royals brought in a starter with decent value to replace the innings provided by Bruce Chen and Wade Davis in the four spot, the Royals could net another easy positive gain.

As you have probably realized right now, Kansas City is at a point on the win curve in which each little piece of marginal value is critical. This is why the Kottaras decision was so infuriating. It simply created an additional half win that Kansas City would need to find.

At this point, second base is the key spot moving forward. The Royals need to find an answer here. If they can do that they'll really close the gap heading into camp. It is much more realistic to need your lineup to pick up an extra 1.5 wins in progression than it is to ask them to pick up 3.5 wins in progression. I'll be severely disappointed if Emilio Bonifacio heads to Surprise with a starting job to lose.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams

Royals Sign Jason Vargas

The Royals made another one of their "major announcements" this afternoon, this time the news being that the team had reached a four year, $32 million pact with left hander Jason Vargas.

Jason Vargas is actually a pitcher that I have advocated for the Royals to acquire before, but I have to admit that a four year deal is two more years than I am comfortable. I realize that in free agency, you typically have to give one more year than you would like, so I would have been alright with three (allegedly this is what the Vargas camp was demanding.)

There have been whispers that the Royals were actually able to lower the annual value of the deal, while obtaining an extra year of team control. For instance, if Vargas was demanding 3 years, $30 million, the Royals are theoretically paying an extra $2 million for another year of control. What do you think, is an extra year at marginal additional cost worth it? Where would you draw the line for the extra year in terms of additional guaranteed money? $2 million? $3 million? $5 million? Ultimately, at just $8 million per year this isn't a deal that should cripple the payroll.

Another comment that I heard regarding the Vargas deal is that while four years seems like to much the market says otherwise. Really? Are you referring to the market that has hardly been set yet. A far superior, albeit older, pitcher Tim Hudson received two years at $24 million. Injury prone, but extremely talented Josh Johnson netted himself $8 million a season, unfortunately it was just a one year contract. I don't know that the market for Vargas has been set, but those two signings don't scream to me that Vargas should require a four year contract.

The most similar pitchers to Jason Vargas to hit free agency over the last couple of seasons are guys that Royals fans should be very familiar with. Jeremy Guthrie and Bruce Chen are both flyball pitchers with less than stellar strike out rates. Guthrie received a $25 million deal over three years that many people believe was too large of a contract. Chen on the other, perhaps the most comparable pitcher to Vargas in baseball over the past three seasons, will definitely not be receiving four years this winter.

I can't help but wonder, will this really be the only upgrade to the rotation this offseason. On several occasions we've heard that the Royals are only looking to add one starter, well if that proves to be true they definitely went the safe route. Vargas doesn't have the upside of other available options, but he is a safe bet to post an ERA around 4.00 to 4.50.

After missing out on Josh Johnson and Tim Hudson, did the Royals hit the panic button? Not wanting to be the last team standing when the music turned off? Was the Royals interest in Phil Hughes exaggerated or has the bidding already surpassed what the Royals were willing to spend.

Personally, I think we'll see the Royals bring in another starter before February 14 gets here. I don't think Vargas is a bad option, only that it seems like an overpay and just the latest edition of Dayton Moore's front office jumping the market. Will this instance prove to be another poor piece of judgement in the way the market is heading? Only time will tell.

Thoughts on Today's Butler Rumors

Earlier today we learned that according to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star, the Mariners and Orioles are both showing strong interest toward Billy Butler. Of course, Butler would be an incredibly tough asset to part ways with, and while it likely isn't a shock, according to a source I have that has spoken with David Glass, the organization is conflicted regarding the 26 year old designated hitter. He would be incredibly valuable on the trade market, but he has huge value to the team in that he is one of the few sure things on the roster. Based off my conversations, it sounds to me like Kansas City would have to be floored by an offer to move Bill the Thrill.

But what would it take?

Seattle Mariners Thoughts

As far as Seattle is concerned, the Royals would have to look to fill multiple holes in any trade. What I mean by this, is that not only would Seattle have to send a young arm Kansas City's way, but they would also have to send a hitter. There are two hitters that fit the bill. First, there is Nick Franklin. Franklin is near Major League ready and could feasibly slide right into second base, thus filling one of the few holes the Royals have on the offensive side.

The other option would be Jesus Montero. Montero has been linked to the Royals in the past, but I don't see any point in rehashing that subject again. Montero is coming off a disappointing year in Seattle, but as Royals fans we know how it goes with young hitters. The upside is still there and he continues to project as a middle of the order designated hitter, with the capability to spell Salvador Perez on occasion.

On the pitching side of things, the Mariners offer a triumvirate of Minor League hurlers with front end upside: Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker, and James Paxton. Personally, I would prefer the three in that order, but I have to admit I am very back and forth between Hultzen and Walker. Hultzen is the closer of the two, but not many pitching prospects can match the upside of Walker.

Finally though, I would like a sweetener, his name is Jason Vargas. Vargas is a nice piece, but only offers one year of team control. His presence could hold down a spot in the rotation, which would allow the other pitcher in the deal some time to develop before making the jump to the Majors. Quite frankly, if it made sense perhaps the Royals add in Bruce Chen to fill Vargas's void in the Seattle staff. Here's how the deal would look:

Franklin or Montero + Hultzen, Walker or Paxton + Vargas for Butler and Chen

Pros: Royals are able to diversify their assets, while potentially acquiring a front end starter. Royals also gain more years of team control. Royals slightly upgrade 2013 rotation. Royals clear around $7.5 million in payroll space.

Cons: In the short run the Royals take a step back. They trade off their most advance hitter and a guy who was the eighth most efficient hitter in baseball in RBI situations.

Closing Thought: I've done a lot of research regarding the expected production of top prospects and my findings mirror those of others in the field. There is about a 50% chance that Franklin or Montero turn into the guy you hope they will be. There is about a 25% chance that whoever you get out of Hultzen, Walker or Paxton will turn into that front of the rotation starter. For a team that believes it is about to turn the corner do you trade a guy that already has developed into an All-Star for these odds? Do you roll the dice?

Baltimore Orioles Thoughts

As far as Baltimore is concerned, the trade discussion pretty well has to start and end with Dylan Bundy. Of course, Bundy is considered by many to be the top prospect in all of baseball and almost as untouchable as players come. But here is the problem, there are only about three players in the entire Baltimore organization that would be worth trading Butler for. The first is Manny Machado, who seems to be entrenched in Baltimore for the foreseeable future. The second is Kevin Gausman, who was just drafted last June and thus can't officially be traded for several months. The third is the aforementioned Bundy.

Obviously, I would love to see Kansas City get their hands on Dylan Bundy. He seems to be as sure fire of an ace as they come. But even he has the odds against him. (Not to mention the hype surrounding him has gotten a bit out of control. I mean seriously, to get him Kansas City should trade Myers + Butler for him? Give me a break.) Much has been said regarding the Royals love of Dylan Bundy entering the 2011 draft and since. Could this finally be their opportunity to acquire him? My gut says "no way". However, if the Orioles offered him for Butler straight up, I would have an incredibly hard time saying no.

Update: According to Bob Dutton, Royals officials view Seattle as a fall back option. This is an interesting choice of words. The implication to me is that the Royals are definitely looking at other options regarding Butler. Although, this could also be taken to me they are a fallback to upgrading the rotation. If this latter is the case, I don't think moving your top hitter should ever the fall back option, that just screams of desperation.

As for Baltimore, Dutton states the Orioles are an even "tougher match." As I outlined in this post, there is zero pieces of interest outside of the aforementioned prospects and I can't imagine Baltimore willing to part with any of the three. Situations like that make deals incredibly hard to navigate.