Sign and Trade for Kendrys Morales?

A sleeper team interested in Morales, as confirmed by a source, are the Royals - love that lineup with him in the middle of it !!
— Jim Duquette (@Jim_Duquette) January 2, 2014

Signing Morales would give the Royals the flexibility to trade B Butler for a pitcher too @MLBNetworkRadio
— Jim Duquette (@Jim_Duquette) January 2, 2014

MLB Network's Jim Duquette provided the Royals with these two tweets yesterday afternoon. At this point I have a hard time believe that all of the Billy Butler smoke is only that. We've heard so many variations of the sign X player to DH and trade Billy Butler rumor that I have a hard time doubting this sort of thing is actually being discussed.

I theorized as to why the Royals might be so eager to shop Billy Butler here and most if not all of these points remain true today. Whether or not a trade and signing would improve the ball club obviously hinges on the return that Bill Butler could bring in a trade. Personally, I don't see the return being enough to warrant such a move.

Also. worth consideration in these rumors is that they often involve signing a player who has a draft pick attached. Looking at the big picture, in order for the Royals to truly come out ahead in a Butler trade and FA signing, the return for Butler would both have to be more valuable than a 1st round pick while also accommodating for the difference between production from Butler and the FA signing. A return this strong is hard to envision.

Here is a look at how Butler and Morales compare in a few different projections systems:

• Steamer
• Butler: .293/.373/.467 with a .363 wOBA worth 2.4 WAR
• Morales: .275/.334/.467 with a .346 wOBA worth 1.6 WAR
• Oliver
• Butler: .288/.368/.419 with a .345 wOBA worth 1.1 WAR
• Morales: .278/.338/.461 with a .346 wOBA worth 1.6 WAR
• The Spitter (my own creation)
• Butler: .301/.377.455 with a .364 wOBA worth 2.7 WAR
• Morales: .293/.344/.481 with a .354 wOBA worth 2.2 WAR
• Averages of the above projections
• Butler: .294/.373/.447 with a .357 wOBA worth 2.1 WAR
• Morales: .282/.339/.470 with a .349 wOBA worth 1.8 WAR

Basically, on average Butler is slightly more valuable as a designated hitter than Kendrys Morales. Again the complication with this deal is that the Royals need to obtain enough value for Butler to account for the loss of a 1st round pick that would come with a Morales signing. Of course, no team is going to overspend for Butler to compensate the Royals for a draft pick that they would lose in a separate transaction. This creates a problem for Kansas City, who rightly should view these two moves as one in the same.

One way that the problem of a draft pick could be defeated would be a sign and trade with Seattle. The Mariners have long had interest in Billy Butler and even this offseason have been rumored to have kicked the tires on Bill the Thrill. If the Mariners signed Morales and then flipped him to Kansas City the Mariners could grab the DH they've long sought, while the Royals could bring in Morales without losing a draft pick. Of course, in order for this to make sense for Kansas City, another piece would also have to go to the Royals to make this work.

If it is true that Kansas City is seeking pitching in return for Butler, then we would have to assume that in order for this deal to make sense, Seattle would sign Morales and then trade him to Kansas City with a Major League ready starter for Billy Butler. A few names that could fit this mold would be Brandon Maurer, Erasmo Ramirez, or James Paxton. We know the Royals were hot and heavy on Paxton a year ago, but would they be able to return him in this sort of deal?

Complicating matters even further, the Mariners should also view this deal in the sense that they would be losing their right to a 1st round pick that could have been gained through compensation. Perhaps, the Mariners with their eyes set on 2014 would ignore this detail, but I have to think it would hurt the potential return that Kansas City could get for Butler.

Personally, I think this sort of route would be a creative solution by both the Mariners and Royals. I wouldn't consider this sort of move the Royals had to lose a draft pick. However, if the Royals can move Butler as they obviously are inclined to do, I'd prefer it to come in a situation like this. If a Morales plus Paxton or Ramirez deal was worked out, I think it is the kind of deal that would make sense for Kansas City. Ultimately, if none of this comes to fruition, the Royals will do just fine with Butler at DH.

Thoughts on Today's Butler Rumors

Earlier today we learned that according to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star, the Mariners and Orioles are both showing strong interest toward Billy Butler. Of course, Butler would be an incredibly tough asset to part ways with, and while it likely isn't a shock, according to a source I have that has spoken with David Glass, the organization is conflicted regarding the 26 year old designated hitter. He would be incredibly valuable on the trade market, but he has huge value to the team in that he is one of the few sure things on the roster. Based off my conversations, it sounds to me like Kansas City would have to be floored by an offer to move Bill the Thrill.

But what would it take?

Seattle Mariners Thoughts

As far as Seattle is concerned, the Royals would have to look to fill multiple holes in any trade. What I mean by this, is that not only would Seattle have to send a young arm Kansas City's way, but they would also have to send a hitter. There are two hitters that fit the bill. First, there is Nick Franklin. Franklin is near Major League ready and could feasibly slide right into second base, thus filling one of the few holes the Royals have on the offensive side.

The other option would be Jesus Montero. Montero has been linked to the Royals in the past, but I don't see any point in rehashing that subject again. Montero is coming off a disappointing year in Seattle, but as Royals fans we know how it goes with young hitters. The upside is still there and he continues to project as a middle of the order designated hitter, with the capability to spell Salvador Perez on occasion.

On the pitching side of things, the Mariners offer a triumvirate of Minor League hurlers with front end upside: Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker, and James Paxton. Personally, I would prefer the three in that order, but I have to admit I am very back and forth between Hultzen and Walker. Hultzen is the closer of the two, but not many pitching prospects can match the upside of Walker.

Finally though, I would like a sweetener, his name is Jason Vargas. Vargas is a nice piece, but only offers one year of team control. His presence could hold down a spot in the rotation, which would allow the other pitcher in the deal some time to develop before making the jump to the Majors. Quite frankly, if it made sense perhaps the Royals add in Bruce Chen to fill Vargas's void in the Seattle staff. Here's how the deal would look:

Franklin or Montero + Hultzen, Walker or Paxton + Vargas for Butler and Chen

Pros: Royals are able to diversify their assets, while potentially acquiring a front end starter. Royals also gain more years of team control. Royals slightly upgrade 2013 rotation. Royals clear around $7.5 million in payroll space.

Cons: In the short run the Royals take a step back. They trade off their most advance hitter and a guy who was the eighth most efficient hitter in baseball in RBI situations.

Closing Thought: I've done a lot of research regarding the expected production of top prospects and my findings mirror those of others in the field. There is about a 50% chance that Franklin or Montero turn into the guy you hope they will be. There is about a 25% chance that whoever you get out of Hultzen, Walker or Paxton will turn into that front of the rotation starter. For a team that believes it is about to turn the corner do you trade a guy that already has developed into an All-Star for these odds? Do you roll the dice?

Baltimore Orioles Thoughts

As far as Baltimore is concerned, the trade discussion pretty well has to start and end with Dylan Bundy. Of course, Bundy is considered by many to be the top prospect in all of baseball and almost as untouchable as players come. But here is the problem, there are only about three players in the entire Baltimore organization that would be worth trading Butler for. The first is Manny Machado, who seems to be entrenched in Baltimore for the foreseeable future. The second is Kevin Gausman, who was just drafted last June and thus can't officially be traded for several months. The third is the aforementioned Bundy.

Obviously, I would love to see Kansas City get their hands on Dylan Bundy. He seems to be as sure fire of an ace as they come. But even he has the odds against him. (Not to mention the hype surrounding him has gotten a bit out of control. I mean seriously, to get him Kansas City should trade Myers + Butler for him? Give me a break.) Much has been said regarding the Royals love of Dylan Bundy entering the 2011 draft and since. Could this finally be their opportunity to acquire him? My gut says "no way". However, if the Orioles offered him for Butler straight up, I would have an incredibly hard time saying no.

Update: According to Bob Dutton, Royals officials view Seattle as a fall back option. This is an interesting choice of words. The implication to me is that the Royals are definitely looking at other options regarding Butler. Although, this could also be taken to me they are a fallback to upgrading the rotation. If this latter is the case, I don't think moving your top hitter should ever the fall back option, that just screams of desperation.

As for Baltimore, Dutton states the Orioles are an even "tougher match." As I outlined in this post, there is zero pieces of interest outside of the aforementioned prospects and I can't imagine Baltimore willing to part with any of the three. Situations like that make deals incredibly hard to navigate.