Royals Sign Jason Vargas

The Royals made another one of their "major announcements" this afternoon, this time the news being that the team had reached a four year, $32 million pact with left hander Jason Vargas.

Jason Vargas is actually a pitcher that I have advocated for the Royals to acquire before, but I have to admit that a four year deal is two more years than I am comfortable. I realize that in free agency, you typically have to give one more year than you would like, so I would have been alright with three (allegedly this is what the Vargas camp was demanding.)

There have been whispers that the Royals were actually able to lower the annual value of the deal, while obtaining an extra year of team control. For instance, if Vargas was demanding 3 years, $30 million, the Royals are theoretically paying an extra $2 million for another year of control. What do you think, is an extra year at marginal additional cost worth it? Where would you draw the line for the extra year in terms of additional guaranteed money? $2 million? $3 million? $5 million? Ultimately, at just $8 million per year this isn't a deal that should cripple the payroll.

Another comment that I heard regarding the Vargas deal is that while four years seems like to much the market says otherwise. Really? Are you referring to the market that has hardly been set yet. A far superior, albeit older, pitcher Tim Hudson received two years at $24 million. Injury prone, but extremely talented Josh Johnson netted himself $8 million a season, unfortunately it was just a one year contract. I don't know that the market for Vargas has been set, but those two signings don't scream to me that Vargas should require a four year contract.

The most similar pitchers to Jason Vargas to hit free agency over the last couple of seasons are guys that Royals fans should be very familiar with. Jeremy Guthrie and Bruce Chen are both flyball pitchers with less than stellar strike out rates. Guthrie received a $25 million deal over three years that many people believe was too large of a contract. Chen on the other, perhaps the most comparable pitcher to Vargas in baseball over the past three seasons, will definitely not be receiving four years this winter.

I can't help but wonder, will this really be the only upgrade to the rotation this offseason. On several occasions we've heard that the Royals are only looking to add one starter, well if that proves to be true they definitely went the safe route. Vargas doesn't have the upside of other available options, but he is a safe bet to post an ERA around 4.00 to 4.50.

After missing out on Josh Johnson and Tim Hudson, did the Royals hit the panic button? Not wanting to be the last team standing when the music turned off? Was the Royals interest in Phil Hughes exaggerated or has the bidding already surpassed what the Royals were willing to spend.

Personally, I think we'll see the Royals bring in another starter before February 14 gets here. I don't think Vargas is a bad option, only that it seems like an overpay and just the latest edition of Dayton Moore's front office jumping the market. Will this instance prove to be another poor piece of judgement in the way the market is heading? Only time will tell.

In the Cross Hairs: Josh Johnson

#Welp...he gone. With Ervin "Magic" Santana rejecting the Royals qualifying contract offer of 1 year, $14.1 million, he will test the waters of free agency in search of his 5 year, $112 million deal he so wishes for.  Is he worth 112 million dollars? Nah.  Will he get it? I mean... Vernon Wells once received $126 million so..who the hell knows what 'Magic' will get.  What is he worth? Perhaps a 5 year deal worth around 75 million wouldn't be too absurd.  If you want to hear a compelling argument from Santana's trio of agents, comparing their client to another former Royal..Zack Grienke, check out Jon Heyman's article from this morning, talking about some interesting points that make Santana and $112 million a plausible outcome.  As Jeffrey Flanagan reported on Tuesday, GMDM will continue to pursue a deal for Santana. On the plus side, we do get a compensatory pick in the upcoming draft if he signs elsewhere, so there's that, but hey...I've moved on. It was great having you in Royal Blue, Erv.

Let's get to the task at hand: replacing Ervin Santana. While other clubs are moving in on the services of Ervin, Bronson Arroyo, Matt Garza, Phil Hughes, and Tim Hudson, to name a few, I'd like to discuss the reports of the Royals interest in Blue Jays starter Josh Johnson.  Buster Olney of ESPN tweeted earlier this evening a potential signing for Kansas City would be the 29 year old righty, stating it would be a "possible high reward" and that he's a "good team guy." This is definitely intriguing.

Photo courtesy of torontosun.com

In his 8 year tenure as a Florida AND Miami Marlin, Johnson posted a 56-37 record with a beastly 3.15 ERA, along with being named a 2 time All-Star and finishing 5th in Cy Young Award voting in his 2010 campaign. The right hander logged 916.2 innings on the mound, racking up 832 strikeouts and 308 walks, a WHIP of 1.23 and giving up just 0.6 HR/9.  Prior to the 2013 season, Miami owner Jeffrey Loria decided to unload some payroll by creating a mega package including Johnson, pitcher Mark Buerhle, and SS Jose Reyes and sending them up north across the border to the Toronto Blue Jays.  Things got a little sour for Josh as a Blue Jay.  He hit the DL early in the year, came back for a dozen more starts before being shut down to a forearm injury. Coming off minor elbow surgery, Johnson is expected to be healthy and ready for Spring Training.

In his glory days with the Marlins, Josh had a lightning fastball that averaged 95 mph in 2009 and 2010, but since then, his velocity has dipped slightly each of the next years, to 92.8 mph. Along with the heater, Johnson has a slider with good movement, a curve that sits around 79 mph, and a decent changeup.  If somehow the Royals would be able to snag him off the market, his 45% ground ball rate and 31% fly ball rate would make a nice fit at Kauffman Stadium. Turning 30 in January, Johnson is well known for visiting the disabled list and if he can stay away from that list and pitch like he did in '09 and '10, he can easily be one of the top right handed arms in the game. That's the risk that comes with signing the once former ace.

Let's just say for kicks and giggles, Josh wants to come to KC.  Here's what the rotation looks like (in my world):

                                        1.) James Shields                         

                                        2.) Josh Johnson                        

                                        3.) Danny Duffy                          

                                        4.) Jeremy Guthrie                    

                                        5.) Yordano Ventura    

Moore has already gone on the record to say the 1-2 spots are already locked up.  Shields will lead it off, of course, and then Guthrie to follow.  The next 3 spots are up for grabs.  If we were to miss out on Johnson, you can already assume that Duffy will be a full-time member of the rotation, barring any setbacks and if "Ace" Ventura can figure things out, he should be a regular, as well.  Zimmer is close to ready, so in the mean time, someone will have to step up, whether it be Wade Davis or Will Smith.  There's also the risk of letting Luke Hochevar earn his way back as a starter, he was straight up filthy last year in the 'pen.  I say leave him there, but that's not up to me. 

To fill Santana's spot, we need an outside source, and I believe the ex-Marlin/Blue Jay should be the source.  A long-term offer would be way too much of a gamble for any organization to make on Johnson.  This is a bounce back season for Josh, in trying to regain his old form as a top 1-2 starter.  Reports have shown that Johnson could very well get a 'qualifying offer' type of deal, such as 1 year, $8-12 million range. I have no problem with this kind of deal.  The Royals should at least go after Johnson, before bidding on Phil Hughes.