In the Cross Hairs: Josh Johnson

#Welp...he gone. With Ervin "Magic" Santana rejecting the Royals qualifying contract offer of 1 year, $14.1 million, he will test the waters of free agency in search of his 5 year, $112 million deal he so wishes for.  Is he worth 112 million dollars? Nah.  Will he get it? I mean... Vernon Wells once received $126 million so..who the hell knows what 'Magic' will get.  What is he worth? Perhaps a 5 year deal worth around 75 million wouldn't be too absurd.  If you want to hear a compelling argument from Santana's trio of agents, comparing their client to another former Royal..Zack Grienke, check out Jon Heyman's article from this morning, talking about some interesting points that make Santana and $112 million a plausible outcome.  As Jeffrey Flanagan reported on Tuesday, GMDM will continue to pursue a deal for Santana. On the plus side, we do get a compensatory pick in the upcoming draft if he signs elsewhere, so there's that, but hey...I've moved on. It was great having you in Royal Blue, Erv.

Let's get to the task at hand: replacing Ervin Santana. While other clubs are moving in on the services of Ervin, Bronson Arroyo, Matt Garza, Phil Hughes, and Tim Hudson, to name a few, I'd like to discuss the reports of the Royals interest in Blue Jays starter Josh Johnson.  Buster Olney of ESPN tweeted earlier this evening a potential signing for Kansas City would be the 29 year old righty, stating it would be a "possible high reward" and that he's a "good team guy." This is definitely intriguing.

Photo courtesy of torontosun.com

In his 8 year tenure as a Florida AND Miami Marlin, Johnson posted a 56-37 record with a beastly 3.15 ERA, along with being named a 2 time All-Star and finishing 5th in Cy Young Award voting in his 2010 campaign. The right hander logged 916.2 innings on the mound, racking up 832 strikeouts and 308 walks, a WHIP of 1.23 and giving up just 0.6 HR/9.  Prior to the 2013 season, Miami owner Jeffrey Loria decided to unload some payroll by creating a mega package including Johnson, pitcher Mark Buerhle, and SS Jose Reyes and sending them up north across the border to the Toronto Blue Jays.  Things got a little sour for Josh as a Blue Jay.  He hit the DL early in the year, came back for a dozen more starts before being shut down to a forearm injury. Coming off minor elbow surgery, Johnson is expected to be healthy and ready for Spring Training.

In his glory days with the Marlins, Josh had a lightning fastball that averaged 95 mph in 2009 and 2010, but since then, his velocity has dipped slightly each of the next years, to 92.8 mph. Along with the heater, Johnson has a slider with good movement, a curve that sits around 79 mph, and a decent changeup.  If somehow the Royals would be able to snag him off the market, his 45% ground ball rate and 31% fly ball rate would make a nice fit at Kauffman Stadium. Turning 30 in January, Johnson is well known for visiting the disabled list and if he can stay away from that list and pitch like he did in '09 and '10, he can easily be one of the top right handed arms in the game. That's the risk that comes with signing the once former ace.

Let's just say for kicks and giggles, Josh wants to come to KC.  Here's what the rotation looks like (in my world):

                                        1.) James Shields                         

                                        2.) Josh Johnson                        

                                        3.) Danny Duffy                          

                                        4.) Jeremy Guthrie                    

                                        5.) Yordano Ventura    

Moore has already gone on the record to say the 1-2 spots are already locked up.  Shields will lead it off, of course, and then Guthrie to follow.  The next 3 spots are up for grabs.  If we were to miss out on Johnson, you can already assume that Duffy will be a full-time member of the rotation, barring any setbacks and if "Ace" Ventura can figure things out, he should be a regular, as well.  Zimmer is close to ready, so in the mean time, someone will have to step up, whether it be Wade Davis or Will Smith.  There's also the risk of letting Luke Hochevar earn his way back as a starter, he was straight up filthy last year in the 'pen.  I say leave him there, but that's not up to me. 

To fill Santana's spot, we need an outside source, and I believe the ex-Marlin/Blue Jay should be the source.  A long-term offer would be way too much of a gamble for any organization to make on Johnson.  This is a bounce back season for Josh, in trying to regain his old form as a top 1-2 starter.  Reports have shown that Johnson could very well get a 'qualifying offer' type of deal, such as 1 year, $8-12 million range. I have no problem with this kind of deal.  The Royals should at least go after Johnson, before bidding on Phil Hughes.

Series Preview: New York Yankees

Six games into Josh Vernier's "gauntlet", the Royals find themselves 3-3. Vernier has said over and over that how the Royals fair over this stretch will really shine light on the kind of season they will end up. While I partly agree with this sentiment, I think there is also an opportunity for the Royals to make up some ground over the final couple of months. By the end of the "gauntlet", the Royals will have played 99 games. Of their final 63 games, the Royals will play only 28 more against teams that are currently over .500. Of those, 17 will be at home.

If the Royals can finish the "gauntlet" with an even record, the remaining schedule could lend itself to a run. However, before we start looking to far ahead, let's hone in our focus on the Bronx Bombers.

Probables

Monday - Phil Hughes 4-7, 4.55 ERA

At one point in time, Phil Hughes was considered as close to a can't miss pitching prospect as you could find. Today, he is pitching in the final year of his indentured servitude to the New York Yankees. The 23rd overall selection of the 2004 Amateur Draft has rewarded to Yankees with 10.6 fWAR and an estimated $46.6 million worth of value as estimated by Fangraphs. Thus far in his career, Phil Hughes has earned $14.1 million.Despite all of this I think nearly everyone would classify Hughes as a major disappointment. He is half a season from free agency and he boasts a 56-43 record with a 4.41 career ERA.

This season, Hughes favorite secondary pitch has shifted from a curve to a much harder slider. This makes sense as last season, his slider was rated as his best pitch, while is curve wasn't fooling many hitters. Hughes has been very susceptible to lefties in 2013, who are hitting .297/.361/.528 against him. Look for Kansas City to sit Cain and Tejada and it wouldn't surprise me at all if Giavotella finds himself on the bench for the third straight game.

Tuesday - C.C. Sabathia 9-6, 4.06 ERA

Sabathia will enter Tuesday night with his highest season ERA since 2004. This number stems almost directly in the highest HR/9 of his 13 year career. Knowing the park in which Sabathia calls one would likely expect that these struggles were the result of Yankee Stadium. This would be an incorrect assumption. On the road Sabathia's HR/9 is 1.52, while it is 1.11 at home (1.11 would still be the highest total for his career).

Sabathia has already given up 18 home runs in 2013, nine of which have come off his fastball. While his fastball has maintained similar movement in 2013, the average velocity of the pitch has dropped from 92.3 mph in 2012 to 90.6 in 2013. Just four seasons ago, Sabathia's fastball averaged 94.2 mph. Despite all of this, the 6'7" lefty is throwing 57.3% of the time, a mark that is still 4% lower than his career norm.

Wendesday - Ivan Nova 3-2, 4.09 ERA

It seems like it was just yesterday that I was attempting to convince a Yankee fan that Ivan Nova wasn't the Yankees best pitcher. It was 2011 and Nova was coming off a campaign that saw him win 16 games despite a K:BB ratio of 1.72. The following year, Nova's ERA jumped from 4.50 to 5.02 and I was relieved.

What I failed to realize was that despite that jump in ERA, Nova had actually transitioned into becoming a halfway decent pitcher. His K:BB ratio jumped to a respectable 2.73. This season that number has climbed even higher to 3.43 and Nova has rediscover his ability to induce ground balls.  He's only started 6 games this season, but he is currently striking out a batter per inning and forcing daisy killers on over 50% of the balls in play. The combination of these two things makes Nova a dangerous pitcher.

Thursday - Andy Pettitte 6-6. 4.37 ERA

Series Notes

Underrated How long can a player be called underrated before that ceases to be the case? Whatever the answer may be, Bret Gardner is pushing the limit. The unheralded prospect from Holy Hill, South Carolina has provided the Yankees with 17.7 bWAR in his six seasons in the Bronx. Among players with at least 4000 innings in the outfield since 2008 (Gardner's debut), Gardner leads all of baseball in UZR/150 at 27.8. Second place is Carlos Gomez at 16.2 and only five other outfielders crack double digits. From about 2009-2011 I harped that the Royals should trade for Gardner, at this point the secret may finally be out.

One Sided All-time the Royals are 183-271 against the New York Yankees and 77-149 in New York. Since 1995, those numbers drop to 43-108 and 17-57. The Dayton Moore led Royals are 18-35 against the Pinstripes and 9-15 in the Bronx.

Decide on the Order So far in 88 games in 2013, Joe Girardi has already put forth 76 different batting orders. In fact, the only spot the he seems to feel comfortable with is lead off, where Bret Gardner has hit 81 times this season. The sixth and seventh holes in the order seem to be the most tumultuous with 15 players appearing in each of the spots. For comparison sake, the Royals have used 67 different orders this season.

Nothing Has Got to Give The Yankees pitching staff currently ranks third in baesball in strikeout to walk ratio, while the Royals rank 20th. Yankees hurlers have been particularly adept at limiting walks, walking just 6.7% of opposing batters, which is good for fourth in all of baseball. Meanwhile, Royals hitters are taking walks in just 6.9% of their plate appearances. Whatever the opposite of saying "something has got to give" is, it applies here.

Follow me on Twitter @Landon_Adams