Series Preview: New York Yankees

Six games into Josh Vernier's "gauntlet", the Royals find themselves 3-3. Vernier has said over and over that how the Royals fair over this stretch will really shine light on the kind of season they will end up. While I partly agree with this sentiment, I think there is also an opportunity for the Royals to make up some ground over the final couple of months. By the end of the "gauntlet", the Royals will have played 99 games. Of their final 63 games, the Royals will play only 28 more against teams that are currently over .500. Of those, 17 will be at home.

If the Royals can finish the "gauntlet" with an even record, the remaining schedule could lend itself to a run. However, before we start looking to far ahead, let's hone in our focus on the Bronx Bombers.

Probables

Monday - Phil Hughes 4-7, 4.55 ERA

At one point in time, Phil Hughes was considered as close to a can't miss pitching prospect as you could find. Today, he is pitching in the final year of his indentured servitude to the New York Yankees. The 23rd overall selection of the 2004 Amateur Draft has rewarded to Yankees with 10.6 fWAR and an estimated $46.6 million worth of value as estimated by Fangraphs. Thus far in his career, Phil Hughes has earned $14.1 million.Despite all of this I think nearly everyone would classify Hughes as a major disappointment. He is half a season from free agency and he boasts a 56-43 record with a 4.41 career ERA.

This season, Hughes favorite secondary pitch has shifted from a curve to a much harder slider. This makes sense as last season, his slider was rated as his best pitch, while is curve wasn't fooling many hitters. Hughes has been very susceptible to lefties in 2013, who are hitting .297/.361/.528 against him. Look for Kansas City to sit Cain and Tejada and it wouldn't surprise me at all if Giavotella finds himself on the bench for the third straight game.

Tuesday - C.C. Sabathia 9-6, 4.06 ERA

Sabathia will enter Tuesday night with his highest season ERA since 2004. This number stems almost directly in the highest HR/9 of his 13 year career. Knowing the park in which Sabathia calls one would likely expect that these struggles were the result of Yankee Stadium. This would be an incorrect assumption. On the road Sabathia's HR/9 is 1.52, while it is 1.11 at home (1.11 would still be the highest total for his career).

Sabathia has already given up 18 home runs in 2013, nine of which have come off his fastball. While his fastball has maintained similar movement in 2013, the average velocity of the pitch has dropped from 92.3 mph in 2012 to 90.6 in 2013. Just four seasons ago, Sabathia's fastball averaged 94.2 mph. Despite all of this, the 6'7" lefty is throwing 57.3% of the time, a mark that is still 4% lower than his career norm.

Wendesday - Ivan Nova 3-2, 4.09 ERA

It seems like it was just yesterday that I was attempting to convince a Yankee fan that Ivan Nova wasn't the Yankees best pitcher. It was 2011 and Nova was coming off a campaign that saw him win 16 games despite a K:BB ratio of 1.72. The following year, Nova's ERA jumped from 4.50 to 5.02 and I was relieved.

What I failed to realize was that despite that jump in ERA, Nova had actually transitioned into becoming a halfway decent pitcher. His K:BB ratio jumped to a respectable 2.73. This season that number has climbed even higher to 3.43 and Nova has rediscover his ability to induce ground balls.  He's only started 6 games this season, but he is currently striking out a batter per inning and forcing daisy killers on over 50% of the balls in play. The combination of these two things makes Nova a dangerous pitcher.

Thursday - Andy Pettitte 6-6. 4.37 ERA

Series Notes

Underrated How long can a player be called underrated before that ceases to be the case? Whatever the answer may be, Bret Gardner is pushing the limit. The unheralded prospect from Holy Hill, South Carolina has provided the Yankees with 17.7 bWAR in his six seasons in the Bronx. Among players with at least 4000 innings in the outfield since 2008 (Gardner's debut), Gardner leads all of baseball in UZR/150 at 27.8. Second place is Carlos Gomez at 16.2 and only five other outfielders crack double digits. From about 2009-2011 I harped that the Royals should trade for Gardner, at this point the secret may finally be out.

One Sided All-time the Royals are 183-271 against the New York Yankees and 77-149 in New York. Since 1995, those numbers drop to 43-108 and 17-57. The Dayton Moore led Royals are 18-35 against the Pinstripes and 9-15 in the Bronx.

Decide on the Order So far in 88 games in 2013, Joe Girardi has already put forth 76 different batting orders. In fact, the only spot the he seems to feel comfortable with is lead off, where Bret Gardner has hit 81 times this season. The sixth and seventh holes in the order seem to be the most tumultuous with 15 players appearing in each of the spots. For comparison sake, the Royals have used 67 different orders this season.

Nothing Has Got to Give The Yankees pitching staff currently ranks third in baesball in strikeout to walk ratio, while the Royals rank 20th. Yankees hurlers have been particularly adept at limiting walks, walking just 6.7% of opposing batters, which is good for fourth in all of baseball. Meanwhile, Royals hitters are taking walks in just 6.9% of their plate appearances. Whatever the opposite of saying "something has got to give" is, it applies here.

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Winter Meetings Day 4 Round Up

Well, not exactly a ton of movement this year for the winter meetings. But I think it is apparent now that at some point the Royals will sign a veteran back up infielder. Personally, I still believe the Royals will add one more starter before pitchers and catchers report.

1. Royals draft Cesar Cabral in Rule 5 draft. I guess we were all right the Royals had a lefty they wanted to add to the mix and they got him.

2. Royals trade Cabral to the New York Yankees for $100K cash money. Well that was weird. Given the Royals trade to open up a spot at basically the 11th hour, it really seemed like they wanted that spot for someone in particular. So my guess is this thing played out one of two ways.

Possibility 1: The player the Royals wanted was drafted prior to their selection. This would mean that the guy KC really wanted was either: Rhiner Cruz, Terry Doyle, Lucas Luetge, or Ryan Flaherty. The Royals had also talked with the Yankees about their desire for Cabral and agreed if the Royals' man wasn't there they would select Cabral for New York.

Possibility 2: The Yankees approached the Royals about helping them get Cabral. The Royals knowing that they would need an open 40-man spot soon to announce a signing decided, why not execute the Navarro trade now and get some extra cash. The winter meetings aren't cheap.

3. Royals select Thomas Melgarejo in minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. This guy pitched in the Mexican League so I hope no one is shy about their Joakim Soria comparisons. If you want to see Melgarjo's stats click here.

4. If Cardinals are non tender Ryan Theriot, the Royals will be interested. Like I said there were some pretty thrilling Royals rumors this week in Dallas. I'm not sure that Theriot would be willing to accept a bench role, but I could see him fitting the Royals' needs.

5. Yu Darvish has been posted. I would be flabbergasted if news surfaced that the Royals even place a bid in the process. But I haven't been shy in my sentiment that Darvish could be a great fit for the Royals from a financial perspective. It is rare to have the opportunity to sign a 1/2 starter and only have to pay him 7 figures (maybe low 8 figures) at the end of his deal. If you want a better explanation for why I believe Darvish makes sense click here. Teams have until 4:00 CT on December 14 to place their blind auction bids on Yu's services.

What to do with Joakim

It appears that after abandoning his cutter Soria has refound his pre 2011 form. This is huge news for the Royals, because if Soria would have continue to fall off the ledge as it appeared he was doing it could have really hurt the timetable for contention. The good news is that he has gotten back to being the dominant closer that we have come to know and love.

As for his role in contention it would seem that it will play out in one of two ways. (The third way which I discussed about a month ago, is obviously not a legitimate option in the organization's eyes.) The first way that Soria could play into the Royals future is as the closer. Make no mistake about it Soria could very easily fit into this team's future.

Of course now is when you respond by saying "thank you captain obvious." The reason I say this though is because when reading outside sources they often seem to act as though since the Royals aren't contending now, there is no reason to keep him when they could trade him for pieces that fit into the future wave. This thought process is flat out wrong.

Soria is under team control through 2014 and while this doesn't directly coincide with the controlled years of Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer and Danny Duffy. It does overlap by three and a half seasons. After which all three of the aforementioned players will hit arbitration and become more expensive.

People argue that it doesn't make sense for a non-contending team to keep a quality closer. However, if this team truly wants to and thinks it can contend as early as next season it will be important that the 9th inning is locked down and we know that Soria can do that.

But there is also another way in which Soria could play a key part in the future of the Kansas City Royals. That is by trading him. As we nearly found out the shelf life of elite major league closers is not nearly as long as we would like to believe. Also, given the way in which closers tend to be overvalued in comparison to their true value as judged by WAR, VORP and other sabermetic measurements it makes sense to flip a closer for more valuable parts.

If Joakim Soria has truly regained his value since his return to the closer role, then the Royals need to strongly consider offers for him. When you look at how next year's roster is taking shape there are a couple of glaring holes: starting pitching and catching. Also, when you look at the middle of the order for the coming years it would also seem that the Royals could use an elite right handed bat to stick in between Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer.

It is true that the Royals could probably get by in the catching front with a veteran in the Matt Traenor mold. They could also wait and hope that Salvador Perez pans out in the way that they are hoping. The Royals also could have that middle of the order right handed bat playing right field Northwest Arkansas right now.

But consider that Salvador Perez wasn't even rated in the top 10 catching prospects by mlb.com and that Wil Myers probably needs the rest of this season in Northwest Arkansas and could benefit by a full season in Omaha. Given this timetable he would be positioned for a promotion in mid April 2013. Effectively delaying his free agency two years later than Moustakas and Hosmer, while also positioning his controlled years closer to his peak years of control.

There is a team out there that could fit the Royals needs in a trade for Joakim Soria. It also happens to be a team that has been hot and heavy for Soria for years, and according to sources has been in discussions with the Royals on the matter for the last week. That team is the hated New York Yankees.

So let's examine what a deal could look like between the two clubs:

The Must Have

Jesus Montero

Here is the guy that could be placed fourth in the Royals future order. He entered the season as the number three prospect in baseball. He is a career .309/.366/.494 hitter in the minors despite being considerably younger than the competition at every stop. He is right handed catcher that is just twenty-one years old and has already shown the ability to hit at the triple-A level. He boasts a 70 on both the batting and power scouting scales and has drawn comparisons to Miguel Cabrera.

The downside is that Montero positions himself at catcher on the diamond, even though most don't believe he can actually play catcher. If the Royals acquired him a trade they could either bite the bullet and deal with him at catcher like the Mets did with Mike Piazza or they would have to find a creative solution. This solution could either be moving Eric Hosmer to an outfield corner, or trading their other top trading chip Billy Butler to allow Montero to become a full time designated hitter.

The Wish We Could Get Him Too

Austin Romine

Romine entered the season rated as the number six prospect in the Yankees organization and the number 98th overall according to Baseball America. Romine is considered a well rounded prospect that has a good shot at staying behind the plate. Reports are that he has cut down on his passed balls, however, he still owns just a 25% career caught stealing percentage. Scouts say he has a strong arm so I speculate that this is more mechanics and footwork than anything else.

Romine has improved his catching and his bat. This season he is hitting .291/.353/.408 in double-A. If he was acquired he could catch the remainder of the season in Omaha and if he showed enough with the bat could be given the opportunity to open the 2012 season as catcher for the Royals.

It would seem strange that the Yankees would be willing to part with two of their strong catching prospects. However, I speculate that since the Yankees have a short term solution in Russel Martin they may be willing to wait for Gary Sanchez who could be the best of the bunch. They also have J.R. Murphy who is a pretty good catching prospect himself.

One or Two of these Guys

Dellin Betances

Betances entered the 2011 rated as the number 43 prospect by Baseball America and as the third best prospect in the Yankees organization. He is a 6-8 righty that can dial it up into the mid 90s. He also has a great curve that some rate as a 70 on the scouting scale. Whether he winds up as a front in starter or dominant reliever will hinge on his change up which is average at best. Some scouts believe that the change up could one day be his third plus offering.

Betances currently boasts a 2.37 era in 64 innings at the double-A level. He could be Major League ready by Opening Day next season and could be a work horse front end guy. I am not sure if the Yankees would consider dealing him in a trade already involving Jesus Montero, but he along with the next pitcher would have to be at the top of the list of pitchers to inquire about.

Manny Banuelos

Interestingly enough Banuelos entered the year ranked fourth in the Yankees system behind Betances, but 41st overall two spots ahead of Betances in Baseball America's top 100. Banuelos is listed at 5-10, 155 and pitches from the opposite side of the rubber as Betances. The Mexican native normally sits in the low 90s but has hit 95 on the gun in the past.

Banuelos is also regarded for having top notch command. His changeup and curveball could one day be plus pitches and are already above average offerings. Banuelos has currently logged 69.1 innings this season in Double-A. He has a 3.38 era while posting the highest walk rate of his career at 4.8 per 9. The Yankees seem to be enamored with Banuelos so I don't know that the Royals could pry him away in a deal.

Hector Noesi

Noesi doesn't have quite the prospect flair as either of the two other pitchers we have discussed, but he is just twenty-four years old and owns a 3.20 career era over 373.2 minor league innings. He has only pitched in 20.2 innings so far in 2011, but has posted a 3.92 era in Triple-A. The concern is that his walk rate has spiked in those innings and his k rate has taken a dip.

He is near major league ready, but only really projects as a back end starter. His fastball sits in the low 90s, and he has a good changeup with tailing action. But without a breaking pitch his potential is limited.

Adam Warren

Warren like Noesi has been an extremely effective starter in the minors despite not having the prospect status like Banuelos or Betances. Warren owns a career minor league era of 2.45 with a k:bb of 3:1. His fastball hits the lows 90s with a bit of deception. He has a fringey changeup and throws a cutter and curveball that need to develop for him to be a front end guy. If his breaking stuff doesn't develop his fastball could be good enough to land him in a big league bullpen.

David Phelps

Phelps is very similar to Adam Warren. Phelps often works in the low 90s and he also has a decent curveball. Entering the season it was said that he needs to develop his change up into an average pitch at least in order to really develop into a strong prospect. He may be doing that considering he has a 3.38 era in 85.1 innings for Triple-A Scranton. His k rate is currently 7.8 and his walk rate is 2.3. These numbers suggest that he is near Major League ready.

In my opinion the Royals would need to get the following Jesus Montero, plus either Austin Romine, Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos, and also one of Hector Noesi, Adam Warren, or David Phelps. Another prospect that could be discussed is Slade Heathcott. He doesn't directly fit into the Royals needs for contention, but the guy has five tool potential and could be a steal if the Royals acquired him.

It'll be tough for the Royals to pull the trigger in a deal for Joakim Soria. He represents so much to the organization and particularly the scouting department. They shouldn't make the deal unless they are blown away. But it is possible that a deal could be presented to make the move worthwhile.

If the Royals can fill multiple holes by dealing Soria it could push them closer to contention. If they traded Soria in a deal like the one I just mentioned they could then also look to move Billy Butler, given that Montero could take his spot at DH. Crow could move into the closer's spot and another starter could be ready to fight for a rotation spot.

The Royals are in a good position there are two routes they could move in. They could stand pat and play it safe. Giving them a closer for the next three and half seasons that could be lights out. Or they could roll the dice and risk winding up with less, opening a hole at the back end of the pen while not filling the holes they were expecting to. Or the trade could pay off and Crow becomes a dominate closer, with Montero becoming the second coming of Cabrera and a pitcher establishing themselves as a key member of the rotation.

What do you think?