Royals Rank 9th in Under 25 Talent

Yesterday, the writers at Baseball Prospectus unveiled their annual under 25 talent rankings. The Royals ranked 8th among all teams and their top ten featured four Major Leaguers and six prospects. Top on the list was first baseman Eric Hosmer.

The Royals were the top ranked team in the American League Central. The Twins followed at 13, then the White Sox at 18, Indians at 25 and Tigers at 27. Overall the Royals continue to boast youthfulness and plenty of high upside talent. According to C.J. Whittmann, eac of the Royals prospects that appear on the list boast 60 grades or higher.

Ranking just behind the Royals at 9th overall was the Tampa Bay Rays. As you would imagine, Wil Myers topped the list. Former Royals farmhand Jake Odorizzi came in at 5th.

I am always interested to see Baseball Prospectus's take on the top under 25 organization rankings. I think it serves as a different perspective than the farm system rankings that we see from Baseball America. However, an age 25 cut off does seem a bit arbitrary. I'd be interested to see talent rankings for players with less than 3 years of service time. I think this would provide an excellent snapshot of how much low cost talent each organization has. Maybe someday, there will be a ranking that looks at young talent in this regard.

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Perez and His Awesome Contract

In case you missed it, on Sunday the Kansas City Star's Andy McCullough brought us this article on the importance of a healthy Salvador Perez. There is no doubt that Salvy is one of the most important pieces to this Royals team if not the most important. We are entering Year 8 of the Process and Perez represents the crown jewel of the scouting and development system that Dayton Moore has constructed.

In just 253 professional games, Perez has accumulated 7.5 fWAR, which is easily more than any other hitter developed during the Dayton Moore regime. Perez has compiled this mark at quite the discount for Kansas City. In a time when amateur players are signing for millions of dollars, Perez signed for just $65,000.

Obviously, for Perez to develop into any sort of Major League contributor he would have proved to be an excellent investment, but Dayton Moore swooped in and signed him to a long term deal after just 39 professional games. The deal guaranteed Perez $7 million over the first five years of the deal and included three team options would could take the value all the way up to $21.75.

The deal was a masterstroke by Moore and will most likely be remembered as the best move of his tenure. The contract not only guaranteed a relatively small amount of money*, but also bought the Royals two additional years of team control. Making the deal even better has been the fact that the final three years of the contract are team options.

*Consider this, Eric Hosmer's signing bonus was $6 million. the Royals promised Perez $7 million and were able to secure 8 seasons of cost control for the catcher.

There was a stretch when Dayton Moore did a nice job of locking up several guys. Billy Butler signed a four year deal with a team option, when he was reaching arbitration for the first time. Alcides Escobar signed a four year deal with two team options when he was reaching arbitration. Alex Gordon signed a four year deal with an option when he was just a season from Free Agency.

Entering this offseason I was hopeful that the Royals could do the same for some of their current assets. I also knew that there weren't a ton of logical fits to be extension. Eric Hosmer would be a fantastic player to lock up long term, but he is a Boras client that long dreamed of playing for the Yankees. Danny Duffy, hasn't shown enough control/poise/durability to warrant a guaranteed rotation spot let along a long term contract. Mike Moustakas hit like crap last season. Lorenzo Cain is too injury prone for an extension. This only leaves a few options.

James Shields would have been awesome to extend, but given the current pitching market and the fact that he is now just a year from free agency, it seems that the Royals have missed their chance (if it ever existed). It also isn't a given that a Shields extension would even be worth it.

Greg Holland has been discussed at length on this blog over the past week. He's a guy who is probably the best best to be extended prior to 2014. Of course, in terms of players extended he's a guy that probably wouldn't create a ton of excitement. At the same time if the Royals can find value in a Greg Holland extension then they should absolutely jump at the opportunity.

The final player who I will suggest is Norichika Aoki. If you've frequented this blog over the last couple of months you know how big of an Aoki fan that I am. I think he is going to be an excellent fit for Kauffman Stadium and I expect him to be wroth 2.5 WAR or more in 2014. Aoki is only signed through this season, but I would be curious as to what he might ask for in the way of an extension.

The Royals have done a nice job in putting talent together in Kansas City. Hopefully, the Royals can keep this group together long enough to put the pieces in place around them to win big. At the very least we know that we'll have a top notch catcher putting on the mask for us day in and day out for the next six seasons.

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He Can Play Any Position He Wants

In an article for Fox Sports on Wednesday, Jeffrey Flanagan brought us this article regarding the possibility of Sal Perez playing some first base during the 2014 season. Of course, it only took until the second paragraph for a quote by our fearless leader to venture off into hyperbole:

"Sal really could, if he wanted to, play any position. He has that ability." - Dayton Moore

 This actually explains a lot. For instance, now we understand why the Royals DFA-ed Emilio Bonifacio. Why keep him on the bench when you have super-sub Salvy ready to make a diving catch in center, or turn a double play? This would also explain why we don't feel the need to carry a back up middle infielder at the beginning of the season. We've got Salvy ready to play short of Alcides Escobar goes down!

Of course, not too much farther into the article mohawk yielding Mike Moustakas dampens our hopes:

"I wouldn't say he'd be winning a Gold Glove (at first base) or anything. It's amazing. For as good of a defensive catcher as he is and how amazing he can catch pop-ups and make plays out there, he can't catch a pop-up to save his life at first base. It's crazy."

But wait! Should we really take Moustakas at his word? I mean Dayton Moore has zero incentive to lie to the fanbase, but Moustakas? What do you think is going to happen when he is posting a negative batting average in May and the Royals faithful get wind that Perez can play anywhere including the hot corner! Moustakas is clearly has some self interest involved here.

Seriously, any additional versatility is always welcomed. Perez is an awesome player and there is no sweeter contract in baseball than his. If giving Perez an occasional start at first base helps keep him healthy throughout the contract and the season, then by all means give him some starts at first base. Let's just not go overboard and pull Eric Hosmer or Billy Butler's bat out of the lineup 20 times this season just for the hell of it.

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Plugging the Holes

Last week Fangraphs' Brad Johnson took a moment to analyze the Royals infield. After raving about Eric Hosmer for a paragraph, Johnson then got around to write this regarding new Royals second baseman Omar Infante. You can read the full article here.

"Infante will finally resolve the Royals second base black hole. He brings batting average to the fantasy dinner along with the odd counting stat. The quality of his season is largely determined by his BABIP."

I don't need to remind Royals fans about how dreadful the Royals' second base situation was last season, but I'm going to do it anyway. Last season Chris Getz, Miguel Tejada, Johnny Giavotella, and Elliot Johnson each received time at second and collectively that group combined for 1.2 Wins Above Replacement and hit .240/.296/.306. Yikes.

Last season for Detroit, Infante hit .318/.345/.450 and recorded 3.1 fWAR. To say that he will be an upgrade for the Royals is an understatement. There was quite a bit of criticism when the Royals guaranteed Infante $30.25 million over 4 years, but the Royals also deserve some credit for bringing in the second best option available on the free agent market to fill their gaping hole. 

The Royals had a few pretty big holes in the lineup heading into the offseason. At third base and short they are hoping for rebouds from Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar. They addressed right field when they acquired Norichika Aoki. With the addition of Infante, the Royals plugged the final hole in the offense. Now it is time to keep our fingers crossed that Kansas City receives what they paid for.

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Hosmer needs to be that Guy

Last week Fox Sports Kansas City's Jeffrey Flanagan brought us this article on Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer. Here's the money quote from the Royals Gold Glover.

"One of the biggest things George told me was it's a battle between you and the pitcher and you might not get him the first time or the second time, but you've got to know that deep down he's not going to get off that mound without you doing some type of damage to him." 

Over the final four and a half months of the 2013 season, Hosmer hit a blistering .317/.363/.484 with 16 home runs and 68 RBI. By the end of the year he had taken a .244/.320/.313 line and lifted it all the way to .302/.353/.448. It isn't a coincidence that the Royals surge over the final few months of the season happened to take place as Hosmer developed into the star that the Royals thought that they had developed.

The good news for the Royals is that their former first round pick's success doesn't appear to be flukey given the quality of his batted ball frequencies. Based off Fangraphs' expected BABIP caculator his .335 BABIP is actually worse than his xBABIP of .338. This is not necessarily to say that he should have been better in 2013, but that his results do appear to be an actual reflection of his performance last season, unlike 2012 when his BABIP was the reflection of incredibly poor luck.

It has been said before, but if the Royals are going to take the next step and go from being an above average team to a good or great team, someone is going to need to be a star. The Royals need a guy that can carry the lineup. From the moment Kansas City selected Hosmer with he 3rd overall pick in the 2008 draft, he has been expected to be that guy. Now the Royals need him to be that guy.

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Different Energy

If you haven't read Wednesday's Kansas City Star article in which Pete Grathoff discusses last season with Eric Hosmer, do yourself a favor and click here. Here's the quote from Hosmer that really caught my eye in the article:

"We like playing the Tigers. We really do enjoy playing the Tigers. Every time they come to town or we go there, it's a different energy when we play them, and it has to be. They've won the division the last couple of years. They're the ones we've got to set out to get. I think that's the good thing of having such a young team, everyone is really hungry and they welcome the challenge."

I'm glad to see that the Royals former first round pick knows who the team is gunning for this season. What the team needs to do though is not have let downs against teams that aren't top teams in the league. Here's a breakdown of how the Royals played against teams based on their division finish:

• vs Division Winners: 19-21, .475 winning percentage
• vs 2nd Place: 19-16, .543 winning percentage
• vs 3rd Place: 6-11, .353 winning percentage
• vs 4th Place: 25-11, .694 winning percentage (15-4 against the Twins)
• vs 5th Place: 17-17, .500 winning percentage

In 2014, the Royals were merely a .500 team against last place teams. It is great that the team brings an extra level of energy whenever they are playing the top teams in the league, but good teams take care of business all season long. Good teams don't play to their competition, young teams do. It's time for the Royals to transition from being the young team to a good team.

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Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2014/02/05/4801312/this-year-eric-hosmer-wants-royals.html#storylink=cpy

'My Guys' v Royals Part I: Freddie Freeman v Eric Hosmer

With spring training in full force, the first crack of the bat in the 2013 regular season is an ear shot away.  While I would call myself a fan of the Atlanta Braves, I am a bigger fan of the individuals around the league whose game I have grown fond of over the course of their careers.

During these posts, I want to compare some of these guys to their comparable Royals player and determine who a better bet is for 2013 and beyond.  This post will pair Eric Hosmer and Freddie Freeman; both are 23 year old first baseman with high expectations and two almost full years of major league experience to their name.

A look at the Past:

In 2011, Eric Hosmer and Freddie Freeman were the 8^th and 17^th best prospects, respectively, according to Baseball America.  Freddie Freeman was slated to become the opening day starter at first base for the Braves after only seeing a short September call-up in the majors prior.

Eric Hosmer was set to start the 2011 season in AAA grooming to become the 2012 everyday first baseman.  After a ridiculous stretch of 118 AB’s in AAA (1.107 OPS!) the Royals made the right decision and brought him up to the major league club to play every day.  The two had very similar 2011 seasons, with Hosmer getting the slight edge in numbers based on his display of speed (11 SB’s) and Freeman’s inability to make contact (22.4% K). 

In 2012 both players were looking to grow on their strong rookie campaign and try to avoid a sophomore slump.  Freddie Freeman was generally able to improve his game.  With a .259/.340/.456 triple slash line Freeman proved his ability to get on base enough and have enough power to be a decent major league first baseman at only 22 years old.  His batting average regressed back to the mean a little after a .282 AVG (.339 BABIP) in 2011 and .259 AVG (.295 BABIP) last season. The positive sign, however is that Freeman was able to draw more walks and improve his power to the point where his OBP/SLG/OPS were nearly identical to his rookie season.   A big reason for his success could lie in his ability to make solid contact with an impressive 26% line drive percentage, a very good number for any major league hitter. 

Freeman ended 2012 as a 2 WAR player, with his defense and speed limiting his overall value for his team.

Eric Hosmer was bitten with the sophomore slump bug, ending the season with a .232/.304/.359 line.  While Hosmer may have been a little unlucky with a .255 BABIP, his power decrease was of a bigger concern lowering his ISO to a pedestrian .127 after an impressive .172 in 2011, and five less homers in 35 more plate appearances.

Hosmer actually ended up a negative WAR number, as defensive metrics did not love his run prevention skills.  On the bright side, Hosmer did continue to show that he can run on the base-paths recording 16 steals in 17 attempts.  He also improved his walk rate and continued to strike out at a respectable 15.9 percent.  Freeman gets the clear nod in terms of 2012 success for his solid improvements at the plate.  

A glance at the present:

As we approach the 2013 season, both Freeman and Hosmer will have pressure on themselves to be productive middle of the order hitters for their respective teams.  Both myself and projection systems predict that both Hosmer and Freeman to improve in 2013.  Most see Freeman improving his home runs and cutting down on his strike-outs thus improving on AVG and SLG and ending with and OPS right around .830. 

Projections for Hosmer show an increased BABIP, 20 home run power and continued contact and speed skills capable of a 20/15 season and an OPS hovering .800.  I’d agree with the projections and give Freddie Freeman the edge for who will help their team more in 2013. 

A look beyond:

Looking forward it appears that both have immense upside.  Freeman has a higher floor based on his 2012 season and has plenty of room to be a .280/.380./.540 type hitter for multiple years.  He won’t be a superstar without cutting down his strikeouts and he will never have particularly good speed.  He is not a spectacular defender now but there is plenty of belief that he will become a plus fielder down the line.  It is also hard to tell how much, if any, Freeman will be able to improve on his power numbers. 

Hosmer has a higher ceiling in my mind, but has a lot of work to do to make up for a disappointing 2012.  Hosmer could be a stud first baseman with 30/20 skills and more walks than strike-outs.  First things first, Hosmer needs to find his power without sacrificing his other skills to do so.  Unlike Freeman, Hosmer has struggled to hit line drives (18.3%) and hit way too many ground balls (53.6%) in 2012, and that has to change.  He is athletic and has the ability to be a plus first baseman and could realistically move to the outfield if it made sense down the road. 

This is finally over:

These players are very similar in production, but in this battle I will have to go with MY BOY Freddie Freeman.  Freddie is my favorite player in baseball, so I have to admit I am not shocked with my conclusion.  Hosmer’s athletic ability leaves him nearly limitless in upside, but Freeman has a leg up on Hosmer right now and has the ability to slowly become one of the better hitters in baseball.  I’ll probably eat my words though because this Hosmer guy seems like he’ll be really good.

Royal Rewind Wrap Up (10-22-12)

Yesterday as I was flipping through channels and trying to ignore the "must watch" TV of the third and final Presidential Debate, I came across "Royal Rewind" on Fox Sports Midwest.  It had already been going on for a half hour or so, but I caught most of the last half.  Here are some thoughts by a few Royals personnel from the Royal Rewind.  I am only paraphrasing what they said.

Ned Yost

• Losing Paulino and Duffy hurt the most. Rotation would hinge around those guys and both were doing great at time they got hurt.

Although Felipe Paulino was pitching like an "ace" before he got hurt, Danny Duffy wasn't pitching exceptional.  Obviously, losing those two pitchers hurt the rotation badly, but one could also make an argument that losing Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez for the first half of the season was just as devastating. Oh and we were playing Yuniesky Betancourt.

• Moose has improved, gold glove caliber third baseman. Production was pretty good for first full year in big leagues.

Mike Moustakas has improved, especially on defense.  He led all 3B in UZR in 2012 at 16.8. This mark put him ahead of the likes of David Wright, and Adrian Beltre.  Moose was also 2nd among 3B in the Majors in UZR/150 at 15.2 only behind David Wright at 16.8.  Moose was hot the first half of the season where he slugged .490 and hit 15 long balls.  Post All-Star Break he was awful. He had an OPS of .586 with a putrid 5 homers.  Don't get me wrong, I love Moustakas, and I still think in terms of his first year he had a real solid year overall.  But if the Royals want to compete for division championships Moose (or Hoz) will both have to be All-Star caliber players in my opinion.

• Hoz really struggled

Boy did he.  Eric Hosmer was incredibly tough to watch most of the year; and not just at the plate.  He was hard to watch on defense as well, thanks to his windmill digging style and the tendency to fling the ball across the field.  Like Moustakas, Hosmer will have to become an All-Star caliber player in order for the Royals to compete year in and year out.

• Ryan Lefebvre asked Ned something along the lines of it was as simple as starting pitching for the Royals to become a contender.
• Ned: "It's that simple really" Experience is extremely valuable and core is set on the field (lineup).
• Bullpen is efficient, need a couple starters and we should be in good shape.

Is it as simple as SP? Well in some ways yes it is.  We desperately need 2 or 3 starters that can pitch somewhat like Jeremy Guthrie did for the Royals, or even Luis Mendoza.  Luke Hochevar should not be in the rotation next year. Period.  I know I'm not the only fan who is saying this, in fact, its most likely a choir of Royals fans saying this.  I still think there is more to the Royals competing, and that is what I said earlier: Moustakas and Hosmer living up to star potential. Or at least one of them.

Steve Physioc

• Holland was fantastic and has makeup and mentality to be a closer

I agree, he looked great. Love his strikeout ability.

• Guthrie raised the entire rotation up, Mendoza pitched better (when Guthrie came) and Chen pitched better too.

Guthrie raised the rotation up because he pitched very well, Mendoza was consistently slightly above average and Bruce Chen was terrible for the most part, I don't get the love for Chen.

Rex Hudler

• Bruce Chen set the tone for rotation
• Led the entire season
• "Raise the Roof in 13"

Oh Rex. Chen really led the staff all year with his 5.07 ERA and becoming the human launching pad by giving up 33 dingers on the year. You amaze me Rex.

"Plenty of Time Left"

"We have the guys in here to do it. There's plenty of time left here. We can take this team where it needs to be." -Eric Hosmer

Interesting choice of words from the Royals' blossoming superstar. Let me preface all of this by saying I am probably reading way to much into his comments, and the following is more thinking out loud than anything. However, when I read this quotation, it was enough to make my stomach turn.

"There's plenty of time left here."

What do you mean there's plenty of time left here? Has Hosmer already made a decision to test free agency? Or does he just realize that the Royals core won't be together forever? Or was he just commenting in a calming manner for fans?

Obviously, we all know that the Royals won't keep their core together forever. We know that more likely than not in six seasons Eric Hosmer will be testing free agency. But there is something odd about a player referencing the ticking service clock.

I'm not saying there is anything wrong with Hosmer's comments. However, for a guy the fans are praying will sign long term, it is a bit disconcerting to hear him even hint that someday the clock will run out.

Hosmer, is right; there is plenty of time left in Kansas City. Unfortunately, Hosmer is also right that eventually that time will run out. I just wish it wasn't Eric Hosmer himself that reminded us.

Pieces in Place

There are three spots in the batting order that traditionally have been viewed as having more importance than any of the others. Dayton Moore and company have on multiple occassions expressed their belief that if you can field a quality leadoff, three hole, and clean up hitter the team can consistentely provide quality offense.

For the first time in the Dayton Moore era we can safely say that the Royals have found answers for each of these three spots. But instead of a persuasive essay to convince you, let's just look at how the bottom of the 9th unfolded last night.

Leading off the bottom of the ninth for the Kansas City Royals number 4. Alex Gordon.

After falling down in the count 0-2 against hard throwing lefty Matt Thornton, Alex did what any good leadoff hitter would do in that situation, he battled back.

95 mph fastball. Foul (0-2)
81 mph slider. Ball (1-2)
96 mph fastball. Foul (1-2)
96 mph fastball. Foul (1-2)
83 mph slider. Ball (2-2)
97 mph fastball. Ball (3-2)

Finally on the ninth pitch of the at bat, Gordon found a pitch that he could do something with and ripped it in between the first and second basemen into right field.

There are two thngs that didn't happen in this at bat that should be noted. First, Gordon laid off the slider in. Up until this season the slider from left handed pitchers was Alex Gordon's biggest and most glaring weakness. The pitch seemed to consistently find the hole in his swing, when time and time again he would show the inability to lay off the pitch and would instead find nothing but air with his swing.

Second, Gordon's stayed agressive throughout the entire at bat. In the past Gordon would often get deep into at bats by taking a passive approach and then eventually this passiveness would do in him, in the form of a called strike three. Now, Gordon is always looking for the right pitch to hit and with his natural pitch recognition abilities is able to work counts, while also not being vulnerable for the called strike three.

Stepping to the Melky Cabrera.

One pitch, one perfect sacrifice. Gordon to second with one out.

Now batting the designated hitter, number 16 Billy Butler.

The White Sox made the smart tactical move and intentionally walked Butler. First and second, one out. Of course unlike in the past the White Sox were forced to pick their poison as opposed to walking the three hitter in order to get to an obviously weaker cleanup man. Finally that leads us to...

Up for the Royals, the first baseman, number 35, Eric Hosmer.

On the second pitch of the at bat, Eric Hosmer did what he does best when he laced a Matt Thornton fastball over left fielder Juan Pierre's head for a game winning double.

The Royals have the pieces in place in the three most critical spots of the lineup for at least the next two seasons. If we can extend Gordon, maybe even we can have those pieces in place for the next four seasons. Either way the Royals could finally have an offense that for the next several years will be a force in the American League Central.

Update: What we Need to See

At the All Star break I made a list of ten things that I would like to see in the second half of the season. Well we are about at the halfway point in between the break and the end of the season, so let's see how the Royals are stacking up with my goals.

1. A strong second half from Alex Gordon. In the first half Gordon posted a .299/.367/.483 line. So far in the second half he has a .290/.373/.497. His OPS is up from .850 in the first half to .870 in the second half, while his OPS+ is at 138 in the second half compared to 139 in the first half. In the end he has done plenty to warrant this goal receiving a CHECK for the time being.

2. Billy Butler finding his power stroke. Butler has 9 homers, 10 doubles and a slugging percentage of .541 in 37 games. CHECK

3. An efficient Danny Duffy Duffy is averaging just over 5 innings per start in the second half, which is right in line with his first half numbers. With Duffy reaching his season's innings limit soon I can't imagine this goal doing anything but remaining UNFULFILLED.

4. Eric Hosmer developing into a Superstar. Specifically I asked for Hosmer to post a line of at least .300/.350/.450 for the second half of the season. Instead his average has improved by two points from .268 to .270, while his on base percentage has jumped from .317 to .327. Not to mention his slugging percentage has actually dropped from .431 to .390. Definitely UNFULFILLED.

5. A good luck Felipe Paulino In the second half Paulino's K to walk has dropped from 3.75 to just 1.74. Due to his increase in walks his era has taken a hit. Whether or not he is having good luck or not this isn't what we wanted to see. UNFULFILLED.

6. Mike Moustakas driving the ball with power. Despite having a hot few days to finish the Boston series (just over twenty-four hours after I tweeted that I felt Mous might get things going soon based off of his recent swings) he still hasn't shown nearly enough for a check. UNFULFILLED

7. Luke Hochevar has to be better. A 3.55 era with a k to walk jumping to 2.40 qualifies here. CHECK

8. Alcides Escobar building off of his offensive outburst. He hasn't really built off his outburst, but he has been better than his wretched start. But a .250/.271/.339 line is hardly what I had in mind. UNFULFILLED.

9. Continued dominance from the bullpen. Aaron Crow has taken a step back. Greg Holland has continued to dominate. Tim Collins has been a little better. Joakim Soria still can't put his struggles behind him. Louis Coleman, despite his performance a couple of days ago continues to impress. This one is hard, but due to Crow's struggles I am marking it UNFULFILLED.

10. Mike Montgomery righting the ship He has had several decent starts, but at no point has he dominated like he did right before the All Star break. UNFULFILLED.

Overall, the Royals are three for ten on my Goal List for the second half. Not exactly what I was hoping for when I made this list of goals, all of which I felt were attainable.

What are we waiting for?

Bob Dutton made some noise on the Royals blogosphere and twitterverse last night when he released a story stating that the "goal" of Dayton Moore and the front office was to get Johnny Giavotella 100-150 Major League at bats this season.

So what would it take for the Royals to meet that goal? Well there are twenty-five games in September and considering that Yost is planning on starting Giavotella everyday he could get close to the lower end of that goal should he be called up on September 1.

More likely though Giavotella will need to be called up in mid-August and handed the everyday duty the rest of the season in order to comfortably fall into that 100-150 at bat range. So my question is this: if you are already virtually naming him the starter for the last month or month and a half of the season why not bring him up now?

Perhaps, there are service time issues that the Royals can benefit from should they wait until mid-August? Well, unless the Royals wait until several weeks into the 2012 season Giavotella will be a free agent after the 2017 season. The same time as Moustakas, Hosmer, Duffy, and the bevy of relievers. Also, the Royals are way past the Super Two cutoff so that is no concern either. So obviously service time isn't the reason he is still in Omaha.

I guess maybe the Royals feel like he isn't quite Major League ready. That would be a great reason for Giavotella to still be in Omaha, except for it is obviously not true. In fact Giavotella has proven himself more in Omaha than any rookie on the Major League roster not named Eric Hosmer.

Gio currently is hitting .339/.391/.482 in Omaha and since the all star break his line has been .392/.427/.581. In the last two months he has posted an OPS over 1.000. No, it is pretty clear the bat is Major League ready. So that leaves just one reason why Giavotella isn't in the Majors.

Obviously Giavotella is blocked by a superior player. Wait... What? The player blocking Giavotella is Chris Getz? The guy that has set a record for Royals at bats without a home run? The guy that is hitting .259/.317/.288 for the season?

So obviously there is no good reason for Giavotella still being in Triple-A. My guess is that one more cold streak by Getz will result in a move. Obviously the Royals would like to try and flip Getz for something useful, but I can't see why a team would give anything up for him.

Getz does have options remaining, but he will be arbitration eligible for the first time this winter making him more expensive. (Although I can't imagine him making seven figures.) He could go back to Omaha and be a back up guy should Giavotella fail miserably or get hurt in 2012. This is the solution I would take with Getz. Control inventory and take advantage of depth.

The Royals have already made it clear that they want Giavotella to be the starter for at least the final month of the season. So why wait? I realize that if they bring him up now they will probably net him close to 200 Major League at bats. But seriously, since when is it bad to exceed a goal? Giavotella has warranted a promtoion and is ready to go. Give him the rest of the at bats as the starting second sacker for the rest of the season and he should be ready to hit the ground running in 2012.

Giavotella isn't the only player deserving of a Major League spot. There is also the issue for Lorenzo Cain. Considering the current shape of the roster I'd prefer to keep Cain in Omaha for the next month allowing him to play everyday. Once the Omaha season ends bring him up and do your best to rotate him in and out of the lineup.

Also deserving are David Lough and Clint Robinson are also on the 40 man roster. Both have also done plenty to warrant promotions in September. There won't be enough playing time to go around to truly benefit them from a skills development standpoint. But I'd like to see them both called up to give them a taste of the Big Leagues, while rewarding them for their hard work and quality performances over the past few seasons.

Salvador Perez and Kelvin Herrera also have gotten call ups to the Triple-A recently. Both are Rule 5 eligible this winter so, should an opportunity present itself, both should be given September call ups as well. This could give them each about five weeks of playing time in Omaha that would include a playoff run (hopefully). Plus a few weeks in the Majors allowing them an opportunity to experience what Major League life is like.

The Royals are the youngest team in the Majors. But don't think the youth movement is done. We can only hope that Moustakas and Hosmer were the initial outburst from a consistent pipeline of talent.

What We Need to See

The second half of the season begins tonight, let's take a look at things we want to see in order to have confidence in this team having a shot at contention in 2012.

1. A strong second half from Alex Gordon. Obviously Gordon's first half has been the brightest spot for the 2011 Royals to date. For Royals fans and bloggers like myself who have defended Gordon and blamed his late blooming on injuries and bad luck, this season has come as a huge relief. But so far we have played just over half of the games on the 2011 slate. Gordon has come a long way, but a collapse in the second half could cause a similar collapse in fan's dreams for 2012.

2. Billy Butler finding his power stroke. Despite Butler walks being virtually unparralled by any other Royal in the last two decades, posting an on base percentage near .400. Butler has been a big disappointment for Royals fans in 2011. Whether or not this is fair is another discussion, but I think we can all agree that if Butler could start slugging the ball like he did in 2009, or even just like he did in 2010, we would be much more confident in his ability to be a middle of the order hitter.

3. An efficient Danny Duffy could go a long way. I'm not asking for Duffy to become a dominant pitcher in the second half (though if he did it would definitely go a long way), but if he can just be more efficient in controlling the strike zone and his pitch counts. This would allow him to go deeper in the games, reducing the strain on the bullpen and allow him to pound the strike zone even more with his great stuff.

4. Eric Hosmer developing into a Superstar. It may be unfair to ask so much of Hosmer, but in my opinion he warrants it. It takes times for hitters to develope and normally they don't fully hit their stride until year two or three. But I truly believe that Hosmer is going to be ahead of the curve. If Hosmer can continue to improve his numbers in the second half, maybe just post around a .300/.350/.450 line in the second half then Royals fans are going to be really excited about the first base position when they look toward 2012.

5. A good luck Felipe Paulino or really even just a not unlucky Felipe Paulino. Throughout his career Paulino has consistently posted head scratching era numbers considering the strength of his peripherals. He has knockout stuff and a dynamite fastball. His body type suggests he can handle a big time workload, so if Paulino's luck pendulum can swing in the opposite direction or even hang straight down the Royals will have found one/fifth of their rotation through 2014 for nothing at all.

6. Mike Moustakas driving the ball with power. Mike Moustakas hasn't looked overwhelmed in his time in the Majors and he has put together solid at bats on a consistent basis. However, he hasn't been the player that those of us that have seen in the minors have come to love. He doesn't appear to be swinging as hard and his power has been virtually non existent. A strong second half from Moustakas could be just what Royals fans need to really buy into Mission 2012.

7. Luke Hochevar has to be better. Luke Hochevar is beginning to transition into Kyle Davies territory and if he can't put together a strong second half then I wouldn't have any problem with the Royals trading him in the offseason even though it would mean selling low.

8. Alcides Escobar building off of his offensive outburst. I'm not going to ask for Escobar to become a .300 hitter (though I think it is possible). But if he can get his average up into the high .260s by the end of the year, Royals fans will recognize the value that he brings with his glove and an average bat for the position.

9. Continued dominance from the bullpen. The bullpen has a huge bright spot for the 2011 Royals and the best news is that every single pitcher is under team control through at least 2014. If this unit can continue to find success and dare I say even improve, it could be a tremendous asset for the Royals moving forward.

10. Mike Montgomery righting the ship and even finding time in Kansas City this summer could be huge for Royals fans expectations for 2012. The glaring weakness of this team is the rotation. The team needs a frontline starter. Montgomery has that potential and if he can continue to dominate like he did in his last two starters Royals fans should really start to have a lot of confidence for 2012.

What to do with Joakim

It appears that after abandoning his cutter Soria has refound his pre 2011 form. This is huge news for the Royals, because if Soria would have continue to fall off the ledge as it appeared he was doing it could have really hurt the timetable for contention. The good news is that he has gotten back to being the dominant closer that we have come to know and love.

As for his role in contention it would seem that it will play out in one of two ways. (The third way which I discussed about a month ago, is obviously not a legitimate option in the organization's eyes.) The first way that Soria could play into the Royals future is as the closer. Make no mistake about it Soria could very easily fit into this team's future.

Of course now is when you respond by saying "thank you captain obvious." The reason I say this though is because when reading outside sources they often seem to act as though since the Royals aren't contending now, there is no reason to keep him when they could trade him for pieces that fit into the future wave. This thought process is flat out wrong.

Soria is under team control through 2014 and while this doesn't directly coincide with the controlled years of Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer and Danny Duffy. It does overlap by three and a half seasons. After which all three of the aforementioned players will hit arbitration and become more expensive.

People argue that it doesn't make sense for a non-contending team to keep a quality closer. However, if this team truly wants to and thinks it can contend as early as next season it will be important that the 9th inning is locked down and we know that Soria can do that.

But there is also another way in which Soria could play a key part in the future of the Kansas City Royals. That is by trading him. As we nearly found out the shelf life of elite major league closers is not nearly as long as we would like to believe. Also, given the way in which closers tend to be overvalued in comparison to their true value as judged by WAR, VORP and other sabermetic measurements it makes sense to flip a closer for more valuable parts.

If Joakim Soria has truly regained his value since his return to the closer role, then the Royals need to strongly consider offers for him. When you look at how next year's roster is taking shape there are a couple of glaring holes: starting pitching and catching. Also, when you look at the middle of the order for the coming years it would also seem that the Royals could use an elite right handed bat to stick in between Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer.

It is true that the Royals could probably get by in the catching front with a veteran in the Matt Traenor mold. They could also wait and hope that Salvador Perez pans out in the way that they are hoping. The Royals also could have that middle of the order right handed bat playing right field Northwest Arkansas right now.

But consider that Salvador Perez wasn't even rated in the top 10 catching prospects by mlb.com and that Wil Myers probably needs the rest of this season in Northwest Arkansas and could benefit by a full season in Omaha. Given this timetable he would be positioned for a promotion in mid April 2013. Effectively delaying his free agency two years later than Moustakas and Hosmer, while also positioning his controlled years closer to his peak years of control.

There is a team out there that could fit the Royals needs in a trade for Joakim Soria. It also happens to be a team that has been hot and heavy for Soria for years, and according to sources has been in discussions with the Royals on the matter for the last week. That team is the hated New York Yankees.

So let's examine what a deal could look like between the two clubs:

The Must Have

Jesus Montero

Here is the guy that could be placed fourth in the Royals future order. He entered the season as the number three prospect in baseball. He is a career .309/.366/.494 hitter in the minors despite being considerably younger than the competition at every stop. He is right handed catcher that is just twenty-one years old and has already shown the ability to hit at the triple-A level. He boasts a 70 on both the batting and power scouting scales and has drawn comparisons to Miguel Cabrera.

The downside is that Montero positions himself at catcher on the diamond, even though most don't believe he can actually play catcher. If the Royals acquired him a trade they could either bite the bullet and deal with him at catcher like the Mets did with Mike Piazza or they would have to find a creative solution. This solution could either be moving Eric Hosmer to an outfield corner, or trading their other top trading chip Billy Butler to allow Montero to become a full time designated hitter.

The Wish We Could Get Him Too

Austin Romine

Romine entered the season rated as the number six prospect in the Yankees organization and the number 98th overall according to Baseball America. Romine is considered a well rounded prospect that has a good shot at staying behind the plate. Reports are that he has cut down on his passed balls, however, he still owns just a 25% career caught stealing percentage. Scouts say he has a strong arm so I speculate that this is more mechanics and footwork than anything else.

Romine has improved his catching and his bat. This season he is hitting .291/.353/.408 in double-A. If he was acquired he could catch the remainder of the season in Omaha and if he showed enough with the bat could be given the opportunity to open the 2012 season as catcher for the Royals.

It would seem strange that the Yankees would be willing to part with two of their strong catching prospects. However, I speculate that since the Yankees have a short term solution in Russel Martin they may be willing to wait for Gary Sanchez who could be the best of the bunch. They also have J.R. Murphy who is a pretty good catching prospect himself.

One or Two of these Guys

Dellin Betances

Betances entered the 2011 rated as the number 43 prospect by Baseball America and as the third best prospect in the Yankees organization. He is a 6-8 righty that can dial it up into the mid 90s. He also has a great curve that some rate as a 70 on the scouting scale. Whether he winds up as a front in starter or dominant reliever will hinge on his change up which is average at best. Some scouts believe that the change up could one day be his third plus offering.

Betances currently boasts a 2.37 era in 64 innings at the double-A level. He could be Major League ready by Opening Day next season and could be a work horse front end guy. I am not sure if the Yankees would consider dealing him in a trade already involving Jesus Montero, but he along with the next pitcher would have to be at the top of the list of pitchers to inquire about.

Manny Banuelos

Interestingly enough Banuelos entered the year ranked fourth in the Yankees system behind Betances, but 41st overall two spots ahead of Betances in Baseball America's top 100. Banuelos is listed at 5-10, 155 and pitches from the opposite side of the rubber as Betances. The Mexican native normally sits in the low 90s but has hit 95 on the gun in the past.

Banuelos is also regarded for having top notch command. His changeup and curveball could one day be plus pitches and are already above average offerings. Banuelos has currently logged 69.1 innings this season in Double-A. He has a 3.38 era while posting the highest walk rate of his career at 4.8 per 9. The Yankees seem to be enamored with Banuelos so I don't know that the Royals could pry him away in a deal.

Hector Noesi

Noesi doesn't have quite the prospect flair as either of the two other pitchers we have discussed, but he is just twenty-four years old and owns a 3.20 career era over 373.2 minor league innings. He has only pitched in 20.2 innings so far in 2011, but has posted a 3.92 era in Triple-A. The concern is that his walk rate has spiked in those innings and his k rate has taken a dip.

He is near major league ready, but only really projects as a back end starter. His fastball sits in the low 90s, and he has a good changeup with tailing action. But without a breaking pitch his potential is limited.

Adam Warren

Warren like Noesi has been an extremely effective starter in the minors despite not having the prospect status like Banuelos or Betances. Warren owns a career minor league era of 2.45 with a k:bb of 3:1. His fastball hits the lows 90s with a bit of deception. He has a fringey changeup and throws a cutter and curveball that need to develop for him to be a front end guy. If his breaking stuff doesn't develop his fastball could be good enough to land him in a big league bullpen.

David Phelps

Phelps is very similar to Adam Warren. Phelps often works in the low 90s and he also has a decent curveball. Entering the season it was said that he needs to develop his change up into an average pitch at least in order to really develop into a strong prospect. He may be doing that considering he has a 3.38 era in 85.1 innings for Triple-A Scranton. His k rate is currently 7.8 and his walk rate is 2.3. These numbers suggest that he is near Major League ready.

In my opinion the Royals would need to get the following Jesus Montero, plus either Austin Romine, Dellin Betances, Manny Banuelos, and also one of Hector Noesi, Adam Warren, or David Phelps. Another prospect that could be discussed is Slade Heathcott. He doesn't directly fit into the Royals needs for contention, but the guy has five tool potential and could be a steal if the Royals acquired him.

It'll be tough for the Royals to pull the trigger in a deal for Joakim Soria. He represents so much to the organization and particularly the scouting department. They shouldn't make the deal unless they are blown away. But it is possible that a deal could be presented to make the move worthwhile.

If the Royals can fill multiple holes by dealing Soria it could push them closer to contention. If they traded Soria in a deal like the one I just mentioned they could then also look to move Billy Butler, given that Montero could take his spot at DH. Crow could move into the closer's spot and another starter could be ready to fight for a rotation spot.

The Royals are in a good position there are two routes they could move in. They could stand pat and play it safe. Giving them a closer for the next three and half seasons that could be lights out. Or they could roll the dice and risk winding up with less, opening a hole at the back end of the pen while not filling the holes they were expecting to. Or the trade could pay off and Crow becomes a dominate closer, with Montero becoming the second coming of Cabrera and a pitcher establishing themselves as a key member of the rotation.

What do you think?

The Take Sign

Last night Yost caused a bit of discussion when he immediately through Eric Hosmer under the bus talking about how he should have known to take on the first pitch in his final at bat. It is true that Hosmer should have known that with Dyson on first, the first pitch should be took in order to get the winning run into scoring position, but I have one question. How long does it take to flash the take sign?

I am not blaming Yost for Hosmer's decision to swing when he clearly shouldn't have, however I do have a problem with Yost immediately putting the entire thing on Hosmer and accepting no responsibility. Isn't it the manager's job to manage?

I mean using the argument of Hosmer's should have known, then why even give signs in certain situations? Seriously, how long does it take to give the rookie the take sign? You know just to be sure that the ROOKIE is on the right page and understands.

I just don't buy into the argument that because Hosmer should have known, there is no reason to tell him. I think it is lazy and I think it is a cop out for defenders of Yost and Yost himself. At the very least if you are going to assume the rookie should know and he doesnt, keep the issue internal and use it as a learning tool. Don't immediately put it on the rookie when your job description is to manage the team.

Whether or not it was Hosmer's fault or not, it still wasn't even the first mistake made in the 9th last night. The first came when Chris Getz decided it was a good decision to steal third with two outs. Yes he made it to second. But if you are going to steal third in that situation, you better make it without a throw or at least be there with ease.

Little things ladies and gentlemen. Little things.

The Harvest of the Process

Well that was probably the shortest shelf life ever for a Royals blog poll. Just over twenty-four hours ago I asked the fans: which of the Royals elite prospects would be the first to reach the Majors. Of course if it is any consolation Eric Hosmer was leading the race with 6 votes compared to 2 for Danny Duffy and 1 for Mike Moustakas.

Eric Hosmer's promotion to the majors has already become a symbol for the Royals' fan base. It reprsents the moment that the Royals transitioned to a new stage of the Process. The stage in which the Process transitions from an underground operation with a cult following into the limelight with every Royals fan taking notice on a daily basis.

Sure the Royals have already received major contributions from several rookies. Actually six are already on the roster. Aaron Crow has been dominant in the back end of the bullpen. Jeremy Jeffress has dazzled fans with an upper 90s fastball. Tim Collins has corkscrewed his way into a key relief role. Louis Coleman has deceived hitters throughout his first couple of weeks in Royal blue. Nate Adcock has transitioned from mop up duty to sinker ball specialist. Jarrod Dyson has almost single handedly stolen multiple wins from the jaws of defeat.

But now the Royals will finally tap into that cashcrop of prospects that set a record for placing the most players ever on the Baseball America top 100 prospect list. Eric Hosmer, who many regard as the third best hitting prospect in all of Minor League baseball will make his debut tonight.

We are no longer tasting the appetizer and we are no longer seeing the tip of the iceberg. What is about to happen in Kansas City will be the main course of what Royals hope will be a five course dinner that leads to multiple postseason appearances and dare we say World Series titles.

Prior to the season it seemed that every major publication that predicted future World Series winners was calling for big time results in Kansas City as soon as 2013. Royals fans have even discussed Mission:2012 as the calling card for the Royals ascension to contention. But now, with the Royals 17-14, just 4.5 behind the surprise Cleveland Indians and tied for first in the AL Wilcard race. Royals fans look at how Detroit, Chicago and Minnesota are struggling.

Royals fans look at Alex Gordon, Jeff Francoeur, and Wilson Betemit, all guys who have been previously regarded as top prospects who are now entering the prime of their careers. All of which are currently in the process of breaking out. Sure in a month we could be talking about how all have fallen off after their blazing starts. But is it totally unreasonable to hope or even assume that this could be more?

What if Gordon, Francoeur, and Betemit really have turned a corner in their careers? Shouldn't the Royals attempt to grab the race by the throat and go for it? Apparently the organization feels like they should. With the promotion of Eric Hosmer the Royals have announced to the rest of the AL Central and the American League that it is time to stop messing around. If Gordon, Francoeur, and Betemit can continue to rake we won't be looking forward to 2012 anymore. Instead the Process will be looking at Operation:2011.

Tonight the Royals will improve the heart of their order by hitting Eric Hosmer sixth and they will improve their infield with Eric Hosmer at first. Eric Hosmer will be granted the luxury of hitting in the middle of the order with hot sticks in front of him and on most nights Wilson Betemit hitting behind him.

I prefer Hosmer in this spot. It is the perfect place where Hosmer can produce and come up to the plate in important situations, but also not have the weight of the offense on his back. I also believe that on night's when Wilson Betemit is hitting 7th Hosmer will benefit from a strong bat in the on deck circle. Teams will be forced to pitch to the rookie much more than if his protection was Matt Traenor or Brayan Pena.

This brings up an interesting point. Was Kila Ka'aihue really granted a fair opportunity? He hit in the heart of the order at the start of the season but after a dreadful start was bumped all the way down to the 7th spot. Once there he was afforded no protection and continued to struggle. Eventually he found himself in a platoon and finally he found himself on the bench before his eventual demotion.

In Kila's last eight games there was evidence that he had begun to turn things aroud from a statistical standpoint. Obviously these cues were lost on Manager Ned Yost and General Manager Dayton Moore. Kila Ka'aihue will likely join the immortal likes of Calvin Pickering and Ken Harvey in the Royals blogosphere. Always wondering what could have been had he been granted a longer opportunity or not struggled so much out of the gate in 2011.

Ultimately though the Royals future didn't fall on the back of Kila Ka'aihue in anyway. Truth be told the best case was that he raked in 2011 and the Royals could have netted a decent prospect in return. It came to a point though that Eric Hosmer could no longer hold Hosmer back.

With just another month to go before the organization could have held off Super 2 status the team decided that Hosmer was too ready to hold back. Hosmer was hitting .439/.525/.582 through twenty-six games in Omaha. It was time to make the switch. The organization clearly felt that from both a developmental and competitive standpoint it was Hosmer's time to shine in Kansas City.

At this point in time I have little reason to doubt the Royals ability to develop prospects. Hosmer had a babip of nearly .500 and almost all of his offensive value while at Omaha had come by hitting singles. It isn't exactly what you'd hope for when it comes for a middle of the order bat, but reports are that Hosmer was hitting the ball hard almost every time up to the plate.

Hosmer has great plate discipline. He has a sweet stroke and uses the opposite field with ease. He commands the strikezone. He has been compared Joey Votto, Will Clark, Mark Teixeira, and Adrian Gonzalez. His line in Omaha doesn't scream power, but I have little doubt that he is going to rake in the Majors. He is the rare prospect whose back is going to immediately impact the Major League level.

Mark Hosmer's promotion as another tick in David Glass' favor as he continues to rebuild his fickle image. While reports that this promotion will cost the Royals upwards of $15 mill are exaggerated. There is a strong possibility that by promoting Hosmer on May 5th instead of June 15th, the Royals will have cost themselves some leverage in negotiating a long term deal and even about $7 million in his first arbitration case.

Although I don't think anyone would complain if Hosmer was awarded Ryan Howard's $10 million as a first time Super 2 arbitration eligible, given that it would mean that Hosmer will have already won an MVP award.

What Royals fans are all probably hoping is that the Royals will lock up Eric Hosmer sooner rather than later and all of the arbitration talk will be moot. It has become a popular move to provide a top young player financial security while also buying out arbitration and a couple of years of free agency.

Evan Longoria was promoted to the Majors with such a deal in place and now it is generally regarded as the most team friendly deal in all of baseball. There is a fear though that since Eric Hosmer's agent is Scott Boras the Royals won't even be granted an opportunity to lockup their young star. This fear is not necessary for Royals fans. Look at Carlos Gonzalez who just signed a 7 year, $80 million. Gonzalez, like Hosmer, is also advised by Scott Boras.

I believe that if the Royals win Hosmer will be in Kansas City longer than the typical six years of pre free agency service. Hosmer's best friend is Mike Moustakas and if the Royals start adding to the flags I have little doubt that Dayton Moore and David Glass will do everything they can to keep their superstars in Kansas City for as long as possible.

Speaking of Mike Moustakas. I am going to predict that he gets real hot starting yesterday. The promotion of Eric Hosmer to Kansas City is going to serve as a notice for all of the prospects at the triple A level. If you can help the Big club then you are going to be given that opportunity. The Royals aren't messing around and it is time to get this thing started.

Particularly Mike Moustakas, Danny Duffy, and Mike Montgomery could make impacts on the Major League club. The rotation has struggled this season and Danny Duffy and Mike Montgomery could offer quick and effective upgrades. But guys like David Lough, Lorenzo Cain, and Johnny Giavotella could also get an opportunity to prove their worth this season.

The Royals offense, which is already tops in the American League with 162 runs scored just got another potent weapon to work with. With an offense that strong the Royals should continue to be right in the race and if the pitching staff can get an upgrade the Royals really could be playing meaningful games all season long. Something that I have a hard time even grasping, considering I have never witnessed it in my lifetime.

Perhaps in ten years the Royals won't celebrate on Cinco de Mayo because of Mexican heritage, but instead because they can look back on it as the day that Eric Hosmer got called up, the day the Process hit Kansas City, and the day the Royals organization finally revived itself into an American League power.

Where can we Upgrade?

So with the Royals surprise start, I have began to think about what it means in terms of the prospects. What should the Royals do if they stay in contention? Stick with the Major Leaguers? Promote players that could help now? Trade them? Or not let the state of the Major League team affect the plan?

I don't want to get into that discussion right now, but I do want to think what positions the Royals could upgrade by promotions from within. So let's look at the weaknesses of the Major League roster.

1. Catcher

Unfortunately I see know potential solutions at the catcher position right now. No prospects are going to be ready midseason, although at some point Jason Kendall will return from injury. This would probably mean that Pena is the odd man out and the Royals would lose all offensive potential at the position.

2. First Base

Kila Ka'aihue at this point is not getting it done. Through the first fifteen games he's hitting .174/.304/.283 and with Hosmer tearing it up in Omaha an upgrade is readily available. I believe Ka'aihue will have until early June to get something going, but if he hasn't by then it will likely be Eric Hosmer's time to shine.

3. Second Base

Should Getz falter with the bat second base is another production that could be upgraded as the season progresses. This could occur in one of two ways. The most likely probably involves a Mike Moustakas promotion and Mike Aviles sliding over across the diamond. But the other solution involves the promotion of Johnny Giavotella. Giavotella's defense is much improved and after tearing up both the Texas League and the Arizona Fall League a season ago he is off to a hot start in Omaha.

4. Third Base

In case you haven't heard the Royals have the top third base prospect in all of baseball. He is in triple-A now and a year ago he led minor league baseball in home runs. He also recorded more extra base hits than strikeouts. Mike Moustakas could provide a big boost to the middle of the order should he hit the ground running on his promotion.

5. Centerfield

Right now most fans and Kansas City media treat Melky Cabrerra like he is off to a good start. Personally I'm not a fan of sub .300 on base percentages. Most fans would suggest Lorenzo Cain as an upgrade but I'd also like to throw David Lough's name into the mix. He has a great blend of tools and if he can outproduce Cain over the next couple of months then I'd like to see him granted the first opportunity.

6. Rotation

Here is where the Royals could receive the biggest boost this season. Right now the Royals have three rotation spots that have produced consistently but they could look to bolster the rotation by promoting Mike Montgomery and/or Danny Duffy. If Davies can get it going and be a servicable back end guy then the Royals could add one of the aforementioned prospects and have a decent unit. If they added both and they both perform as they could the rotation could have two of the top young starters in baseball.

The Royals have shocked baseball with their quick start much like they did in 2003. However, unlike that season the Royals could have enough bullets in the minor league gun to reload for a Central title run. Hopefully they can continue to overachieve long enough to find out.

Prospect Countdown: 2-1

2. Mike Montgomery LHP

In 2008 the Royals selected a lanky California lefty with their supplemental first round pick. His name was Mike Montgomery and one of the first things that Royals fans learned about him was that he was kicked off his high school basketball team due to receiving to many technical fouls. Nonetheless baseball people seemed to brag about this fact like it was a badge of honor and it wasn't hard to picture Royals scouts watching Montgomery in the summer sun with proud eyes while leaning to the guy sitting next to them and stating "I just love his fierce personality and how he is a fiery competitor."

Montgomery also has some of the top stuff on the Minor League circuit. His fastball is a plus plus pitch that sits in the mid 90s with plenty of life. His curveball comes in somewhere in the 70s and is another dominating pitch. He also possesses a changeup that is average and should continue to be an even better offering down the road. Montgomery has top of the rotation stuff with a frame that suggests it should only improve.

Montgomery has received raved reviews throughout his time in the organization and there was even a point this season when Baseball America questioned if he was the top pitching prospect in baseball after a dominating start in Wilmington. With his success at the high A level Montgomery rather quickly earned a bump up to the Texas League. However, once there he suffered some fore arm tightness and so the Royals shut him down for an extended period. Montgomery has top notch mechanics, with a fluid motion so injuries won't be a concern moving forward.

Because of his time missed during the regular season, the Royals were able to give him some time in both the Pan-Am games and the prestigious Arizona Fall League. Montgomery's era left something to be desired in the AFL, but on the night he pitched in the Rising Stars game the announcers couldn't help but salivate over his Cliff Lee potential.

Heading into Spring Training most viewed Duffy as the most ready starter out of the 4 lefties. But after Montgomery's Spring performance most are now raving how near ready he is. Montgomery is not yet on the 40-man roster but we should see him in Kansas City by season's end.

Given that a hitter's production is typically maximized by controlling him through his age 23-29 year old season, it makes sense for the Royals to be extremely conservative in their development and promotion of Moustakas, Hosmer, Colon, Eibner, and Myers. But with pitchers this peak value usually occurs between ages 21-27 or 22-28, basically from whenever the pitcher reaches the Majors until his reaches free agency.

While the Royals are going to want to choose the most effective years possible for their control, it is also important that their players service time matchup as best as possible. Given the current situation this service shouldn't be off by more than one, maybe two seasons. Also, when you consider the amount of pitching depth that the Royals have it would seem to make sense to get the pitchers up now and then take your time even more with the guys behind them. By doing so you could ideally lengthen the value of the current crop of prospects in the system.

1. Eric Hosmer 1B

There is a perception amongst many baseball followers that top prospects will hit the ground running upon their promotion to the Major Leagues. However, the vast majority of the time this is not the case. I believe that Eric Hosmer will be one of the few prospects that create an immediate impact at the Major League level.

Evan Longoria was a similar bat when he burned the American League to a tune of a .272/.343/.531 slash in his rookie campaign, while leading the Rays to their first division title in franchise history. Buster Posey was an impact bat a year ago when he posted a .305/.357/.505 line when he began the final piece for the Giants quest at a World Series title.

I believe that Hosmer's bat will immediately translate and we can only hope that this has the same impact on the Royals as Longoria's and Posey's had for the Rays and Giants. Hosmer is probably Major League ready now, however with Butler and Ka'aihue already entrenched on the Major League roster the Royals will be able to find what they have in those two players, while leaving Hosmer in the minors long enough to delay his service time.

At this point I can envision a situation in which the Royals call up Moustakas in mid June, thus delaying his service clock for a year while also preventing him from obtaining Super 2 status. But with Hosmer the Royals would be wise to not break him into the Majors until mid April 2012. By doing this they can have him under team control thru 2018. By staggering Moustakas's and Hosmer's service time the Royals won't face a situation where they lose both of their middle order bats in the same season should they not lock them up long term.

If Ka'aihue and Butler perform as many hope and some expect them to, it shouldn't be too difficult for the aforementioned scenario to play out. However, if Ka'aihue struggles to translate his minor league and spring training success to the Major League level then we will likely see Hosmer in Kansas City midseason.

I would also like to see the Royals at least test the idea of having Hosmer move to the outfield. It has long been believed that Hosmer could handle the move, his fastball was clocked in the mid 90s in high school and is much more athletic than one would at first believe. He wouldn't ever win any gold gloves but he would probably have at least serviceable range and an arm that could be a valuable asset in right or left.

If Hosmer proved capable of playing left field then the Royals could potentially feature Butler, Ka'aihue, and Hosmer in the lineup at the same time. The Royals could then have a longer period of evaluation for both Kila and Butler and by the time Hosmer began to slow as an outfield defender, the Royals could shift Hosmer back over to first where he should be an above average defender.

It will be an interesting situation to keep an eye on as the summer unfolds and hope that the Royals aren't conservative with Hosmer during his time in Omaha. Put it this way, the guy can already hit, if he can handle a move to the outfield it would only push the Royals timetable to contention along and would only increase Hosmer's versatility and value.

Hosmer's bat will carry him to the Major Leagues. Once he is there he should be a superstar caliber hitter consistently hitting over .300 while competing for batting titles. It also isn't hard to project Hosmer and Moustakas combining to hit 70+ homers annually. It should be a fearsome duo in the heart of the Royals order for years to come.

Someday Hosmer, Moustakas and company will be the face of the Royals franchise, but for now we just aren't sure when that day will come.