"Best in the American League"

On Wednesday, the Kansas City Star's Andy McCullough sat down with Omar Infante and it didn't take long for the conversation to steer towards the defense of Alcides Escobar, who Infante called "the best in the American League."

Infante is dead on regarding the Royals shortstop. In 2013, Escobar ranked second in all of baseball in UZR for a shortstop. This comes just two years after ranking fourth in 2011. Unfortunately, sandwiched in between those two seasons was 2012, when the Venezuelan ranked 20th out of 21 short stops in UZR (only ahead of Derek Jeter).

My guess is that there were some positioning issues with Mike Moustakas and Escobar in 2012, which results in Mike Moustakas posting an enormous UZR the year before last. This is why I personally don't think Moustakas took a step back defensively last year anymore than Escobar rebounded from 2012. The more important issue is that while the Royals left side is stout defensively, they both need to hit in order to continue to hold down Major League jobs.

Last season, the Royals shortstop posting a wRC+ of 49. This mark was the lowest produced by a qualifying player since 2010 when Cesar Izturis hit .230/.277/.268 with the Orioles in 150 games.

Of course, former Orioles manager Dave Trembley had the sense to bat this kind of hitter at the bottom of the order and Izturis only appeared in three games hitting either 1 or 2. Ned Yost on the other hand hit Escobar in the leadoff and two spot 74 times in 2014. When you talk about lineup optimization, there might not have been a more egregious decision made repeatedly in 2014, than Yost hitting Escobar 2nd.

Fortunately for the Royals the top of the lineup should be out of Escobar's hands in 2014. This should lessen the blow if Escobar is as atrocious offensively as he was a season ago. At the same time, it would be a nice boost to the offense if somehow Escobar could get back to the .293/.331/.390 line that he posted in 2012.

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Perez and His Awesome Contract

In case you missed it, on Sunday the Kansas City Star's Andy McCullough brought us this article on the importance of a healthy Salvador Perez. There is no doubt that Salvy is one of the most important pieces to this Royals team if not the most important. We are entering Year 8 of the Process and Perez represents the crown jewel of the scouting and development system that Dayton Moore has constructed.

In just 253 professional games, Perez has accumulated 7.5 fWAR, which is easily more than any other hitter developed during the Dayton Moore regime. Perez has compiled this mark at quite the discount for Kansas City. In a time when amateur players are signing for millions of dollars, Perez signed for just $65,000.

Obviously, for Perez to develop into any sort of Major League contributor he would have proved to be an excellent investment, but Dayton Moore swooped in and signed him to a long term deal after just 39 professional games. The deal guaranteed Perez $7 million over the first five years of the deal and included three team options would could take the value all the way up to $21.75.

The deal was a masterstroke by Moore and will most likely be remembered as the best move of his tenure. The contract not only guaranteed a relatively small amount of money*, but also bought the Royals two additional years of team control. Making the deal even better has been the fact that the final three years of the contract are team options.

*Consider this, Eric Hosmer's signing bonus was $6 million. the Royals promised Perez $7 million and were able to secure 8 seasons of cost control for the catcher.

There was a stretch when Dayton Moore did a nice job of locking up several guys. Billy Butler signed a four year deal with a team option, when he was reaching arbitration for the first time. Alcides Escobar signed a four year deal with two team options when he was reaching arbitration. Alex Gordon signed a four year deal with an option when he was just a season from Free Agency.

Entering this offseason I was hopeful that the Royals could do the same for some of their current assets. I also knew that there weren't a ton of logical fits to be extension. Eric Hosmer would be a fantastic player to lock up long term, but he is a Boras client that long dreamed of playing for the Yankees. Danny Duffy, hasn't shown enough control/poise/durability to warrant a guaranteed rotation spot let along a long term contract. Mike Moustakas hit like crap last season. Lorenzo Cain is too injury prone for an extension. This only leaves a few options.

James Shields would have been awesome to extend, but given the current pitching market and the fact that he is now just a year from free agency, it seems that the Royals have missed their chance (if it ever existed). It also isn't a given that a Shields extension would even be worth it.

Greg Holland has been discussed at length on this blog over the past week. He's a guy who is probably the best best to be extended prior to 2014. Of course, in terms of players extended he's a guy that probably wouldn't create a ton of excitement. At the same time if the Royals can find value in a Greg Holland extension then they should absolutely jump at the opportunity.

The final player who I will suggest is Norichika Aoki. If you've frequented this blog over the last couple of months you know how big of an Aoki fan that I am. I think he is going to be an excellent fit for Kauffman Stadium and I expect him to be wroth 2.5 WAR or more in 2014. Aoki is only signed through this season, but I would be curious as to what he might ask for in the way of an extension.

The Royals have done a nice job in putting talent together in Kansas City. Hopefully, the Royals can keep this group together long enough to put the pieces in place around them to win big. At the very least we know that we'll have a top notch catcher putting on the mask for us day in and day out for the next six seasons.

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Plugging the Holes

Last week Fangraphs' Brad Johnson took a moment to analyze the Royals infield. After raving about Eric Hosmer for a paragraph, Johnson then got around to write this regarding new Royals second baseman Omar Infante. You can read the full article here.

"Infante will finally resolve the Royals second base black hole. He brings batting average to the fantasy dinner along with the odd counting stat. The quality of his season is largely determined by his BABIP."

I don't need to remind Royals fans about how dreadful the Royals' second base situation was last season, but I'm going to do it anyway. Last season Chris Getz, Miguel Tejada, Johnny Giavotella, and Elliot Johnson each received time at second and collectively that group combined for 1.2 Wins Above Replacement and hit .240/.296/.306. Yikes.

Last season for Detroit, Infante hit .318/.345/.450 and recorded 3.1 fWAR. To say that he will be an upgrade for the Royals is an understatement. There was quite a bit of criticism when the Royals guaranteed Infante $30.25 million over 4 years, but the Royals also deserve some credit for bringing in the second best option available on the free agent market to fill their gaping hole. 

The Royals had a few pretty big holes in the lineup heading into the offseason. At third base and short they are hoping for rebouds from Mike Moustakas and Alcides Escobar. They addressed right field when they acquired Norichika Aoki. With the addition of Infante, the Royals plugged the final hole in the offense. Now it is time to keep our fingers crossed that Kansas City receives what they paid for.

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The Futures of Colon and Giavotella

On Tuesday, Fox Sports' Jeffrey Flanagan brought us this article on the futures of Johnny Giavotella and Christian Colon. Obviously, with the signing of Omar Infante, both players Royal future have become a bit hazy. It would seem that barring anything unforeseen neither may soon get the opportunity to Be Royal.

Giavotella has always been a personal favorite of mine. I saw him first hand in about 60 games a few years ago for the Naturals, when the team would win Team of the Year honors from Baseball America. He was a beast. His range was always limited, but all season long he shot lasers all over Arvest Ballpark and occasionally provided fans with highlight reel plays.

Unfortunately, even I have jumped off the former 2nd round pick's bandwagon. In three separate big league stints he has hit a collective .240/.278/.335 over 113 games. Sure, the argument can be made that he has never truly been given a shot, but I would counter that even in those stints he has completely failed to capitalize.

At this point, even when I squint I can't imagine a future with the Royals for Giavotella and I have a hard time imagining that he offers any value in the way of a trade. the Royals could either do Giavotella a favor and pawn him off for next to nothing or they could stash him in AAA as a reserve until he runs out of options. Giavotella's case isn't enhanced by his lack of versatility. If you can hit enough to be a second baseman, you aren't hitting enough to be a left fielder.

As for Colon, I still think there is some potential there. Unlike Giavotella, Colon can play both middle infield spots. I'm hopeful that the Royals even get him some time at third and maybe even left in 2014. If the Royals can do this Colon could develop into a top notch reserve type of player. I think it is time for the Royals to develop Colon for what his true ceiling is as opposed to the ceiling they thought they had when they drafted him.

I've been hesitant to join the Colon fan club, because quite frankly he has yet to show enough ability at the plate. I'm not going to start a riot because the Royals aren't giving a career .273 Minor League hitter a chance at the big league level. At the same time, I wouldn't be shocked at all to see him carry last season's momentum when he hit .319 over the final two months of the season into 2014.

Hopefully, Colon can return to Omaha in 2014 and mash. The Royals would then have a good problem on their hands. It would give the Royals that quality depth piece should Mike Moustakas, Infante, or Alcides Escobar fall to injury. Also, if Moustakas continues to collapse, Infante could slide to third with Colon taking second. If nothing else I expect to see the Royals former first round pick surface in Kansas City as a utility man by season's end. The Royals might try to get through a month or so without a back up middle infielder, but they won't make it through 162 games without one.

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Top Defense in Baseball

In last Wednesday's post for MLB.com ranking the top defenses in baseball, Anthony Castrovince anointed the Royals as being better than any other. (If you want to see the rest of the rankings click here. Castrovince points to the Royals not having any defensive liability on the diamond and premium defenders at Catcher, Short Stop, and Left Field. Incredibly, Castrovince didn't even make mention of 2013 Gold Glove winner Eric Hosmer, or stud Lorenzo Cain.

Castrovince is right, the Royals are absolute studs on the defensive side of the game. They figure to be even stronger in 2014 with the additions of Omar Infante at second and Norichika Aoki at right field. It is this defensive prowess that gives me comfort at the loss of Ervin Santana. While the Royals rotation isn't as sexy on paper entering without Santana, I believe that an enormous amount of the 2013 run prevention success should be credited to the defense.

While many projections are calling for the Royals to regress in the win column in 2014, due to regression to the mean of their defensive metrics. I would argue that while the metrics of the Royals defense could regress, the actual performance of defense is something less likely to regress than offensive performance. Whether or not the numbers reflect regression, the 2014 Royals aren't going to go from being a dynamite defensive team to a mediocre defensive team.

The Royals ranked very high in WAR numbers in 2013, perhaps this is because defensive metrics somewhat overvalued the Royals defense. A regression in defensive metrics would mean a regression in WAR totals for players, but the point needs to be made that a regression in a metric statistic does not necessarily equal regression in actual performance. The Royals defensive metrics could be a little worse in 2014 than they were in 2013, but in actuality the defense could be playing just as good or better.

Personally, I don't envision the defense regressing in actuality and so I'm not worried about projections that are calling for a regression in defensive numbers. All statistics have variability, but unlike hitting, there is much less randomness involved in fielding a baseball. For this reason, I would expect projection systems to underrate the Royals this offseason.

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Royals Extend Alcides Escobar

Just two and a half weeks ago the Royals signed catcher Salvador Perez to a five year contract extension that also included three option years. At the time of the deal I commented that over the offseason there were two players that made a ton of sense as extension candidates, that no one was talking about. Today the Royals signed the second of those two players to a long term deal.

Here's the breakdown of the extension that Alcides Escobar and the Royals agreed to this morning:

2012: $1 million

2013: $3 million

2014: $3 million

2015: $3 million

2016: $5.25 million club option with  $500K buyout

2017: $6.5 million club option with a $500K buyout

*Award bonuses could push total contract value to $21.75 million.

At the time of the Perez deal I wondered aloud if the same terms would make sense for an Escobar extension. Ultimately, what we see is that Escobar gets more guaranteed money than Perez. This is thanks to his final arbitration year being guaranteed, unlike Perez's deal. However, the potential value of the deal is less. Part of the reason for this is that Escobar's deal encompasses six seasons as opposed to the eight that Perez received. Another reason could be that Escobar is further along in his career and thus his upside slightly more limited.

Another interesting similarity between the two deals is the subtle way in which Kansas City has attempted to front load the contracts. Obviously, in deals involving arbitration years and club options the contracts naturally will escalate in salary. What you'll notice in Escobar's guaranteed years is that instead of a breakdown along the lines of $500K, $1.5 Mill, $3.5 Mill, $4.5 Mill, as would be typical in this type of contract; the Royals elected to double Escobar's 2012 salary and spread the remainder out evenly over his three arbitration seasons.

Look for example at the contract Elvis Andrus signed with the Texas Rangers on February 8. Andrus was entering arbitration for the first time, which undoubtedly cost the Rangers some money in comparison  to the Royals who locked up Escobar a year prior to arbitration. Andrus, like Escobar, is considered one of the top fielding short stops in all of baseball. But, like Escobar, has a career sub .700 OPS. Don't get me wrong, Andrus has been a bit better hitter than Escobar during his brief career. But he also plays in Texas and the numbers are comparable.

The Rangers signed Andrus to a three year deal worth $14.4 million. The deal guarantees Andrus 41% more than the Royals guaranteed Alcides Escobar. Not to mention that the Royals have the ability to control Escobar twice as long, as the Rangers contract controls Elvis Andrus. The two players are about a year a part in service time. So ultimately, the Royals, by agreeing to a contract one year earlier than the Rangers have saved themselves $4 million in guaranteed money, while also obtaining two additional years of team control.

Alcides Escobar could not improve at all and this deal could wind up being a steal. Just like the Perez extension the risk is minimized due to Escobar's defensive prowess. Of course Royals personnel and fans alike are hoping for more from Alcides. Optimists would surely point to Escobar's career minor league average of .293, his .304 rookie average, his .305/.353/.432 July, or his .324/.367/.459 September. To be certain, Escobar has shown for stretches that he could be an above average offensive performer at the short stop position.

Using Baseball Reference's comparable players through age 24, we find that Royce Clayton and Jay Bell most closely resemble Escobar's current career arc. Clayton over his age 25-30 seasons posted a .261/.315/.384 line with an OPS+ of 81. If Escobar is this kind of hitter throughout the contract the Royals accept his defense for four years and evaluate where they are, and their alternatives before exercising the club options.

If Escobar follows the Jay Bell career arc it is a different story. In Jay Bell's 25-30 seasons, he posted a .272/.343/.413 line with an OPS+ of 104. If Escobar can develop into this type of hitter the deal quickly becomes an absolute steal for the Royals. My guess is that Escobar settles in somewhere in between, something along the lines of a .270/.320/.395 hitter. In today's offense depressed environment this is good production out of a short stop and 9 hole hitter. 

If Escobar can stay healthy and continue to do what he does now, the downside is minimal. The Royals would have a top notch defender for the next 4-6 seasons and at times grow frustrated with the lack of offensive production. Escobar was a 2.0 brWAR player in 2011. If he can maintain that production the guaranteed portion of this contract is well worth it. If his production can increase even just a little, the option years become no brainers. 

I love the Royals aggression in handing out extensions over the past few years. This is their second in the past month, and with Alex Gordon two years away from free agency, many believe another is on the way. Eric Hosmer said that Perez's extension make him want his own even more. Danny Duffy wants to be buried a Royal. Let's hope the Royals aren't done getting their future to put pen to paper.

Yunasty Returns to KC

The Royals search for a back up infielder has been their most obvious pursuit this off season outside of acquiring starters for the rotation. The club was specific in looking for a right handed hitter that could back up third and short. You also have to believe that the guy that would be signed would provide both competition and an insurance policy at second base with Johnny Giavotella.

Naturally the Royals filled this void by signing Yuniesky Betancourt this afternoon. Betancourt will return to Kansas City just 366 days after the Royals dealt him to Milwaukee in the Zack Greinke trade. Just a couple of months after starting at short stop for a division champion baseball club, Betancourt appears to have accepted a bench role with the Kansas City Royals- we can only hope.

Of course my initial reaction along with everyone else that closely follows the Royals was one of psychological horror. Rationally I knew that there were surely pros to this acquisition and that getting worked up over a back up infielder was a little over the top. But let me ask you this Royals Nation: Do you think our initial reaction to the Betancourt acquisition was over the top? That's what I thought.

So finally I have reached a point where I can discuss how Betancourt is a good fit for your 2012 Kansas City Royals. Well first off he clears fits the profile that the Royals were looking for in their back up infielder. Right Handed? Yep, Betancourt is right handed. But why did the Royals target a righty? Well, because they wanted to find a guy that could occasionally spell Mike Moustakas against the tough lefty.

So Kansas City needed a hitter that could pound lefties. Naturally the Royals landed on on Betancourt who blistered lefties in 2011 to a .229/.241/.331/.576 line. To be fair Betancourt has been much better against lefties for his career and boasts .275/.308/.421/.729 line. Not terrible numbers there, but does that line really justify hitting Betancourt over Moustakas against a left hander? Not in my opinion. Not only would Betancourt be stealing at bats from Mous but based off of the numbers I expect Mous to be at least the hitter Betanourt is against lefties and likely even better.

So Kansas City needed a guy that could back up both short and third. Naturally they chose Betancourt that hasn't played an inning of third as professional. (Not to mention we already know he can't play shortstop.) It isn't ridiculous to suggest that Betancourt could be a decent fielder at second or third, but at this point we just don't know. For now though the Royals back up third baseman hasn't played an inning at the position since he became a professional.

Finally, the Royals needed to find and insurance policy should Johnny Giavotella fail. This it where it gets scary, because for all the assurance that Dayton Moore has given that Alcides Escobar will start 150+ games at short, there hasn't been much said on the subject of Johnny Giavotella. It's no secret that I'm a big Johnny G fan, but even I think it would be wise to have some quality competition should he falter. I'm just no sure Betancourt is quality competition. If you are a Johnny Giavotella fan like myself you better hope that Gio gets off to a fast start in 2012, or else the organization may be tempted to allow Betancourt's tools on the field on a regular basis.

Betancourt is without a doubt a better fit for the 25 man roster than Chris Getz, but that isn't saying much. There are positives to signing Betancourt, but I'm not sure there are any that wouldn't have been met had the Royals signed any of the other available crop of veteran infielders. Ultimately this is a frustrating move. Yes, it adds competition. Yes, it is only a back up infielder. Yes, Betancourt is a body that can reasonably back up several positions.

The Royals didn't hurt themselves with this move. But given the obviousness that a back up infielder would be signed, they didn't do themselves in favors either. I don't know the terms of the deal, so obviously that will affect my stance a little. For example if it is a minor league deal I would actually be a fan of the move. But if the Royals wind up paying more to Betancourt in 2012 than Edgar Renteria, or Orlando Cabrera wind up making I'll be disappointed.

One Season Post Greinke

Yesterday morning I received the following text from a friend and fellow Royals' diehard:

"Now that the Brewers are in the NLCS and Zack Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt are doing well, would you reassess the trade? Jeremy Jeffress and Lorenzo Cain hardly saw time and Alcides Escobar is really all we had to show for it."

I told my friend that instead of attempting to answer this question in a text, I would reply to him in the form of a blog post, so here we go.

Before saying anything else, at the time of the trade I commented that there is no way Yuniesky Betancourt should be the starting shortstop for a team expecting to win rings. Now though, the Brewers are doing everything they can to prove me wrong. Betanourt, despite posting a .252/.271/.381 line, has retained the starting shortstop job throughout the season.

In the playoffs Betancourt has upped that line to .278/.316/.444 and has came up with a couple of timely hits. With that being said I don't believe that Betancourt's line in any way could make this trade look worse from a Royals perspective. The fact that the Brewers are in the NLCS seems to have come in spite of Yuniesky Betancourt not as a result of his performance.

Zack Greinke on the other has been huge in the Brewers' magical run this season. His era is 3.83 and he has a 16-6 record. But looking even closer he has posted the highest K rate of his career at 10.54, with a walk rate of just 2.36. His xFIP is 2.56 and it wouldn't be hard to make the argument that this is the best season of his career outside of 2009.

Really though Greinke is doing exactly what we expected him to do this season, dominate. Well until the postseason, where he has had trouble staying low in the zone and has become a bit home run prone.

So what about for the Royals? As my friend stated Jeffress and Cain hardly saw time. This is true. Jeffress's stock definitely took a hit as he proved ineffective in the Major League pen and after transitioning to the rotation in Northwest Arkansas saw his control totally fall apart.

Jeffress's stuff is still there and I expect him to refine his command enough to be a useful piece in a Big League pen. However, his season was definitely a big disappointment.

Cain on the other hand did nothing to cause his stock to drop. He didn't receive hardly any big league time, because of the unexpectedly outstanding play of Melky Cabrera, not because he under performed.

In fact, with another season in the books I'm much more excited about Lorenzo Cain then I was at the time of the trade. Reports are his defense was absolutely spectacular in Omaha, all while hitting .312/.380/.497 with 16 home runs and 16 steals.

The outfield's performance in 2011 was obviously a huge plus for the Royals. They now have four viable solutions entering 2012. Should they trade Cabrera, Cain can step in and if they don't they can have depth while also controlling inventory and pushing Cain's arbitration and free agency back another season.

My friend is correct in stating that Alcides Escobar was all we had to show for the trade in 2011. Escobar was excellent defensively and thanks to an incredibly hot streak in the middle of the season, was passable on the offensive side of things. Moving forward Escobar has provided the Royals with at least a temporary solution at short stop and if the offense can continue to progress he could be a cornerstone.

Of course there is one more piece to this trade that has been totally forgotten here. This isn't the first time that I have discussed this trade with a friend and they have forgotten about the Royals' fourth piece: Jake Odorizzi.

Out of all the players involved in the trade, Odorizzi raised his stock more than anyone in 2011. If he can fix his problem with elevating his pitches in the zone he will be a front of the rotation guy in short order. Odorizzi is on the short list of prospects that can be argued for the top spot in the system.

At the time of the trade I believed that it could truly work out great for both parties. It was obvious the Royals HAD to move Greinke. Shelving a pitch in mid-August, threatening to no show for Spring Training, and who knows what else behind close doors. He had to be moved.

The trade was made by the Brewers to better contend in 2011 and 2012. The Trade was made by the Royals to better contend in 2013 and on. Obviously the Brewers should look like they have won the deal after 2011. But nothing that happened in 2011 would suggest that the deal is any worse for the Royals moving forward.

Major League Baseball trades are designed to be wins for both parties. It isn't fantasy football when one guy/girl is most likely getting ripped off when the deal occurs. Just because the trade has worked out awesomely for the Brewers, doesn't mean that it can't wind up being a win for Kansas City as well. It is simply way to early to tell. For now though, the trade looks just as good from Kansas City's perspective as it did when it was completed.

Update: What we Need to See

At the All Star break I made a list of ten things that I would like to see in the second half of the season. Well we are about at the halfway point in between the break and the end of the season, so let's see how the Royals are stacking up with my goals.

1. A strong second half from Alex Gordon. In the first half Gordon posted a .299/.367/.483 line. So far in the second half he has a .290/.373/.497. His OPS is up from .850 in the first half to .870 in the second half, while his OPS+ is at 138 in the second half compared to 139 in the first half. In the end he has done plenty to warrant this goal receiving a CHECK for the time being.

2. Billy Butler finding his power stroke. Butler has 9 homers, 10 doubles and a slugging percentage of .541 in 37 games. CHECK

3. An efficient Danny Duffy Duffy is averaging just over 5 innings per start in the second half, which is right in line with his first half numbers. With Duffy reaching his season's innings limit soon I can't imagine this goal doing anything but remaining UNFULFILLED.

4. Eric Hosmer developing into a Superstar. Specifically I asked for Hosmer to post a line of at least .300/.350/.450 for the second half of the season. Instead his average has improved by two points from .268 to .270, while his on base percentage has jumped from .317 to .327. Not to mention his slugging percentage has actually dropped from .431 to .390. Definitely UNFULFILLED.

5. A good luck Felipe Paulino In the second half Paulino's K to walk has dropped from 3.75 to just 1.74. Due to his increase in walks his era has taken a hit. Whether or not he is having good luck or not this isn't what we wanted to see. UNFULFILLED.

6. Mike Moustakas driving the ball with power. Despite having a hot few days to finish the Boston series (just over twenty-four hours after I tweeted that I felt Mous might get things going soon based off of his recent swings) he still hasn't shown nearly enough for a check. UNFULFILLED

7. Luke Hochevar has to be better. A 3.55 era with a k to walk jumping to 2.40 qualifies here. CHECK

8. Alcides Escobar building off of his offensive outburst. He hasn't really built off his outburst, but he has been better than his wretched start. But a .250/.271/.339 line is hardly what I had in mind. UNFULFILLED.

9. Continued dominance from the bullpen. Aaron Crow has taken a step back. Greg Holland has continued to dominate. Tim Collins has been a little better. Joakim Soria still can't put his struggles behind him. Louis Coleman, despite his performance a couple of days ago continues to impress. This one is hard, but due to Crow's struggles I am marking it UNFULFILLED.

10. Mike Montgomery righting the ship He has had several decent starts, but at no point has he dominated like he did right before the All Star break. UNFULFILLED.

Overall, the Royals are three for ten on my Goal List for the second half. Not exactly what I was hoping for when I made this list of goals, all of which I felt were attainable.

What We Need to See

The second half of the season begins tonight, let's take a look at things we want to see in order to have confidence in this team having a shot at contention in 2012.

1. A strong second half from Alex Gordon. Obviously Gordon's first half has been the brightest spot for the 2011 Royals to date. For Royals fans and bloggers like myself who have defended Gordon and blamed his late blooming on injuries and bad luck, this season has come as a huge relief. But so far we have played just over half of the games on the 2011 slate. Gordon has come a long way, but a collapse in the second half could cause a similar collapse in fan's dreams for 2012.

2. Billy Butler finding his power stroke. Despite Butler walks being virtually unparralled by any other Royal in the last two decades, posting an on base percentage near .400. Butler has been a big disappointment for Royals fans in 2011. Whether or not this is fair is another discussion, but I think we can all agree that if Butler could start slugging the ball like he did in 2009, or even just like he did in 2010, we would be much more confident in his ability to be a middle of the order hitter.

3. An efficient Danny Duffy could go a long way. I'm not asking for Duffy to become a dominant pitcher in the second half (though if he did it would definitely go a long way), but if he can just be more efficient in controlling the strike zone and his pitch counts. This would allow him to go deeper in the games, reducing the strain on the bullpen and allow him to pound the strike zone even more with his great stuff.

4. Eric Hosmer developing into a Superstar. It may be unfair to ask so much of Hosmer, but in my opinion he warrants it. It takes times for hitters to develope and normally they don't fully hit their stride until year two or three. But I truly believe that Hosmer is going to be ahead of the curve. If Hosmer can continue to improve his numbers in the second half, maybe just post around a .300/.350/.450 line in the second half then Royals fans are going to be really excited about the first base position when they look toward 2012.

5. A good luck Felipe Paulino or really even just a not unlucky Felipe Paulino. Throughout his career Paulino has consistently posted head scratching era numbers considering the strength of his peripherals. He has knockout stuff and a dynamite fastball. His body type suggests he can handle a big time workload, so if Paulino's luck pendulum can swing in the opposite direction or even hang straight down the Royals will have found one/fifth of their rotation through 2014 for nothing at all.

6. Mike Moustakas driving the ball with power. Mike Moustakas hasn't looked overwhelmed in his time in the Majors and he has put together solid at bats on a consistent basis. However, he hasn't been the player that those of us that have seen in the minors have come to love. He doesn't appear to be swinging as hard and his power has been virtually non existent. A strong second half from Moustakas could be just what Royals fans need to really buy into Mission 2012.

7. Luke Hochevar has to be better. Luke Hochevar is beginning to transition into Kyle Davies territory and if he can't put together a strong second half then I wouldn't have any problem with the Royals trading him in the offseason even though it would mean selling low.

8. Alcides Escobar building off of his offensive outburst. I'm not going to ask for Escobar to become a .300 hitter (though I think it is possible). But if he can get his average up into the high .260s by the end of the year, Royals fans will recognize the value that he brings with his glove and an average bat for the position.

9. Continued dominance from the bullpen. The bullpen has a huge bright spot for the 2011 Royals and the best news is that every single pitcher is under team control through at least 2014. If this unit can continue to find success and dare I say even improve, it could be a tremendous asset for the Royals moving forward.

10. Mike Montgomery righting the ship and even finding time in Kansas City this summer could be huge for Royals fans expectations for 2012. The glaring weakness of this team is the rotation. The team needs a frontline starter. Montgomery has that potential and if he can continue to dominate like he did in his last two starters Royals fans should really start to have a lot of confidence for 2012.

Halfway There. Living on a Prayer.

Just like that we are halfway through the Major League baseball season. Of course most people split the season into two halfs around the all star break, but for the purpose of this post we are going to use the 81 game mark. The reason? All we have to do is multiply by two and we can see some projected totals for Royal players.

Let's start with the catchers. Brayan Pena is on pace for 230 at bats this season, a number that would shatter his previous career high of 165. Of course that number could really jump should the Royals trade Matt Traenor and allow Pena to catch full time in the second half of the season.

Oh and speaking of Matt Treanor. Have you noticed how much he is walking this year? He is currently on pace for 58 walks, while playing in 104 games. He also has an on base percentage of .354. Those 58 walks would be a career high, in fact he has already set a career high when he walked for the 23rd time this season. Matt has also never played more than eighty-two games in a single season.

Over at first base Kila Ka'aihue likely won't be given an opportunity to double his numbers, and since Eric Hosmer didn't play the entire first half it renders this drill pointless for him as well so we'll move on to the "other firstbaseman" Billy Butler.

Butler is currently on pace for some monster numbers for a middle of the order hitter with 12 home runs and 68 rbi. These would be his lowest totals since his rookie season when he posted 11-55 in just 124 games. I should also add that he is on pace for 92 walks which would be the highest single season mark for a Royal since 1989 when Kevin Seitzer walked 102 times and it would shatter the previous Dayton Moore era record of 69 that Butler set in 2010.

Of course over at second base Chris Getz hot streak has really strengthened his projected numbers for the year. Getz who is batting .343 in his last 19 games is now on pace to get 128 hits which would be a career high, while stealing 28 bases which would also be a career high.

When we shift to the other side of the bag we find another middle infielder whose recent hot streak has moved his numbers out of abysmal territory. Alcides Escobar is also on pace for a few career highs: hits (140), doubles (24), rbi (42), and steals (24).

Wilson Betemit playing in part time duty once again, is on pace for 30 doubles and the highest single season WAR of his career at 1.8. His home run power has taken a severe drop and he is only on pace for 4 home runs this season, 9 less than last season despite being on pace for 100 more at bats.

Melky Cabrera is having more pop in his bat this season than any other and if he continues at his current pace will post career highs in home runs (18), doubles (36), and slugging percentage (.428). Despite playing the worst defense of his career he is still on pace for a career high 2.2 WAR.

Jeff Francoeur of course is doing exactly what Dayton Moore brough him in to do. Currently he projects to hit 22 homers, the highest total since his sophomore season when he hit 29. He also figures to finish with 94 rbis and 36 doubles. Not to mention that he would finish with a career high 26 steals. his previous high was 8. He is also on pace for 38 walks, just 5 more than his 162 game average.

Mitch Maier has starred in bench duty. He is having the best season of his career based on the stats that start with a decimal point. However, he is also only on pace for 86 at bats which would be the lowest figure for his career when you remove his 13 at bat 2006 season.

Finally we get to Alex Gordon whose season is easily the best of his career. He is on pace for 186 hits and while he has totally change his approach at the plate, he is also on pace to tie his career high in walks at 66. He also projects to hit 48 doubles, 8 triples, 18 home runs, and score 90 runs. All of these would be career highs. He projects to post a 5.6 WAR.

On the pitching side of things it has been much more grim. Hochevar may be having the best season of his young career. He is on pace to wipe out his previous 0.5 WAR when he finished the year with a 0.6 mark. He is on pace to post career high marks in walks and home runs allowed, while only tying his career high mark in strikeouts. He has been an innings eater (on pace for 210 innings) which is something that shouldn't be taken forgranted with the young pen.

Jeff Francis's era of 4.79 is in line with his career figure of 4.77. He is on pace to eclipse the 200 inning mark for the first time since 2007. But his strikeouts per 9 innings are down to 4.0, from his previous career low of 5.8.

Kyle Davies continues to epically suck. While Bruce Chen continues to drink from the fountain of youth. His 3.46 era would be his best mark since 2004 when he pitched in 8 games for the Baltimore Orioles.

The bullpen is young and has been very strong. But since most are rookies there isn't much to compare their numbers too, exceopt for the closer Joakim Soria. Soria having the worst year of his career. He is on pace to give up the most home runs and walks in his career while recording the fewest strikeouts despite pitching in the most innings since his rookie season.

As a team the Royals are on pace for 66 wins which would place them right in between the 2009 and 2010 win totals. 696 runs scored the most since Dayton Moore's first full season when the team scored 706 times. Finaly they are on pace for 794 runs allowed the lowest since 2008 when the team gave up 781.