Recapping Recent Moves

November 20:

• Chris Volstad, Vin Mazzaro, Adam Moore, Brayan Pena, Clint Robinson, and Derrick Robinson designated for assignment
• Chris Dwyer, Juan Gutierrez, Donnie Joseph, John Lamb, Justin Marks, and Mike Montgomery added to the 40-man roster

Nothing real shocking here. Although, I think many were a bit surprised to see the Brayan Pena era come to an end. As far as the 40-man additions go, Juan Gutierrez is the only individual that I wasn't sure of entering the day. However, it doesn't come as a shock after his numbers in the Venezuelan Winter League (1.13 ERA, with 17 strikeouts in 16 innings). The only player that wasn't protected that could be a big loss for the Royals in the Rule V draft is Robinson Yambati (although, there are conflicted reports regarding his eligibility). Fortunately, with the Royals bullpen depth they won't be devastated if they lose him. 

November 28:

• Clint Robinson and Vin Mazzaro traded to Pittsburgh for Luis Rico and Luis Santos. 

There's no reason to get worked up about this trade. Both Robinson and Mazzaro were on their way out the door regardless of whether a trade was completed or not. At least this way the Royals get back a couple of young arms to fill out one of their Rookie League team's bullpens in 2013. Hopefully, Clint Robinson gets an opportunity to get regular at bats for the Pirates. I've interacted with Clint on multiple occasions and he is absolutely a class act. 

As far as the trade goes, I received this quote from Dayton Moore:

"I don't always make trades, but when I do I prefer Dos Luis."

November 29:

• Royals and Felipe Paulino agree to a one-year deal worth $1.75 million with $250K in possible incentives

I never really bought into the idea that the Royals were actually considering non-tender Paulino, but apparently Felipe's camp did. Paulino made $1.9 million in 2012, and despite his injury issues he was almost assuredly going to receive a bump in salary for 2013. MLB Trade Rumors projected that Paulino would make $2.7 million in 2013 through arbitration. The fact that Dayton Moore was able to convince Paulino to take $1.75 million is pretty incredible. Basically, the Royals floated out the idea that Paulino might be injured and without a job and were able to use that possibility as leverage to strike a deal with Paulino that saved an allegedly cash deprived organization $1 million.

It is for this reason that despite Bob Dutton's recent comments that every Royals official would be surprised by a Luke Hochevar non-tender, I believe there is still a very strong likelihood that he will not be extended an offer. The Royals are obviously hopeful that they can get something out of him via trade, and for that reason they won't to play up the possibility that he won't be a free agent in a few days. Time (24 hours) will tell if this assumption is correct. 

What We Need for 2012: Part 2

So we have accounted for 80% of the 2012 rotation and we know that the Royals are seeking Major League ready starting pitching in trades. But if the Major League ready starting pitching that they receive is in the Sean O'Sullivan/Vin Mazzaro mold the Royals would be better off hanging on to what they have or taking a couple of low level prospects with higher upside.

The Royals don't need to acquire more Major League ready starters that are really just quadruple-A guys. The players they target in trades need to truly be viable rotation options. Otherwise there is no purpose considering the Royals already have two back up spot starters in O’Sullivan and Mazzaro.

Right now the team that keeps popping up in Melky Cabrera rumors is the Philadelphia Phillies. So here are the pitching prospects the Royals should be bring up: Brody Colvin, Jarred Cosart, Trevor May, Jesse Biddle, Vance Worley, J.C. Ramirez, Jon Pettibone, and Austin Hyatt.

Now the Phillies would likely not be willing to part with the first names on this list (Colvin, Cosart, May, and Biddle). These are all top ten prospects in their system, but also they don't exactly fit the bill of Major League ready as most are just in High-A. Pettibone is also just in High-A so I can't imagine him being the centerpiece that the Royals would prefer (I think he would be a great second piece though).

So this leaves Worley, Ramirez, and Hyatt. Let's start with Worley. MLB Trade Rumors has reported that the Phillies are dangling him as part of a package to lure Hunter Pence away from Houston, so we know the Phillies are willing to move him despite his 2.02 era in 62.1 innings pitched this season.

However, Worley seems to have outperformed his peripherals and his xFIP is nearly double his era (though it still is a very respectable 3.99 for a rookie). The other downside is that entering the season Baseball America said he just "profiled as a back of the rotation starter... with no plus pitch." Obviously the Phillies are trying to sell high and are hoping a team overvalues Worley's hot start in the National League.

This is not to say that I believe Worley to not be worthwhile, but I would hope that Royals scouts believe him to be more than a back end guy should they chose to acquire him in a deal. If he is a back end guy then that still makes him better than AAAA guys Sean and Vin, but it isn't exactly the upgrade we need for the 2012 rotation.

Ramirez is also near Major League ready and entering the season Baseball America said he had mid rotation potential. But also entering the season he had a never posted a K rate under 7. However, this season that number has dropped to 4.7. His era is down to 3.93 which is the best of any of his full seasons, but the K rate is a huge concern.

Finally we get to Austin Hyatt. Hyatt was drafted by the Braves in 2004, which automatically makes him appealing to the Dayton Moore regime. Hyatt has consistently been a bit old for his level to be a top prospect, but this season as a twenty-five year old in Double-A, he has a 10.1 K rate to a 3.0 walk rate. He is a guy that looks like a target, but as the only piece and I can't say that he would be enough to get the deal done.

If the Phillies are unwilling to deal Colvin, Cosart, May, or Biddle the Royals should insist upon Worley. If Worley isn't included the Royals should probably walk unless they can receive three prospects back. If Worley is included the Phillies should get by just offering one other prospect with decent upside. If this player happens to be Pettibone, Hyatt, or Ramirez then all the better.


So would you feel comfortable with a 2012 Royals rotation being Paulino, Duffy, Hochevar, Crow, and Worley? There is definitely some upside there that the 2011 version lacked. The rotation would also have AAAA spot starters Sean O'Sullivan and Vin Mazzaro and as much as I dog on them there is a tiny bit of value there. Not to mention Mike Montgomery.

Should Montgomery really turn it around in the second half as he started to do prior to Wednesday night’s 5 earned in 5 inning performance does he edge out Worley for the fifth spot? This of course would render the trade kind of pointless in the short term much like the DeJesus trade last fall. Or does a Montgomery rise mean the Royals finally cut ties with Hochevar should he nose dive in the second half?

What about free agency? The Royals have dollars to spend and while the market isn't exactly heavy with starter options it isn't totally bare either.

Personally I think Mark Buehrle could be a good fit despite his point on the aging curve. Edwin Jackson could also be a really exciting target for Royals fans. C.J. Wilson would also be a great get for the Royals. Dare I say Yu Darvish may hit the market should the Royals really want to make a splash and go all in. Jeff Francis and Bruce Chen could be brought back to fill in as the missing piece.

I suppose what this entire post comes down to, is while the Royals rotation has been pretty terrible this season particularly while Chen was on the DL. However, when it comes to the Royals rotation being a strength for 2012 there are already two reasons to be optimistic.

If you are a believer in Crow you have three. If you think Hochevar can be at least a back end guy for a good rotation you have another. And if you believe Monty will rebound you could already have your five. No need to worry.

But if you believe in just one of the aforementioned possibilities the Royals could answer the other two questions with a trade and then a free agent signing. Quite frankly they could even afford two free agent signings should they think it is needed to contend. If you don't believe in Crow, Hochevar, or Montgomery being pieces next season then you better hope the Royals get back a Major League starter and are active on the free agent market this winter.

Personally I see the rotation as the biggest question mark for 2012. I see enough solutions internal to put out a rotation that could be good enough. But I don't want to take that chance. I'd like to see one pitcher come in via trade and one via free agency (the latter being more critical, considering he would likely be expected to be front end).

Should the Royals be aggressive in acquiring pitching over the course of the next seven months, the rotation could be a real asset entering 2012. I know this sounds strange now when it is one of the worst in baseball, but there are pieces already in place and there are avenues in which the Royals can fill the gap.

It isn’t as if the Royals have to fill the entire glass. Truthfully the glass is already half full with water pouring in. Just as it always is on Royal Revival.

What Should the Royals Do?

So the Kyle Davies situation brings about an interesting situation for the Royals and when Ned Yost elected to bring in Tuesday's starter Vin Mazzaro and he imploded it caused an even murkier situation.

It appears that the Royals now need two starters in their big league rotation. So let's look at the possibilities.

Aaron Crow: I don't think I am alone in hoping that the Royals elect to stretch Crow out. If the Royals do this it may take a couple of starts to get Crow's pitch count where it needs to be, but his upside could be the highest among the starter options.

Mike Montgomery: The factors that are preventing Monty from getting immediately promoted are that he got shelled in his last start in Colorado Springs and money. If Montgomery would have dominated in his last start I wouldn't have been shocked at all to see Monty given an opportunity in the big league pen. However, with his struggles with control and his implosion against the Sky Sox, it makes sense that the Royals would leave him in Omaha and make him for their hand.

Danny Duffy: Duffy had perhaps his worst start last time out. But his numbers are still strong enough to warrant a big league promotion. I believe that even if Duffy doesn't live up to the hype he would still represent an upgrade over almost every pitcher in our rotation. A factor working against Duffy though is the service time issue and Super 2.

Jeff Suppan: Suppan could be the option the Royals go with should they chose to pinch pennies. However, there is no reason to believe that he has earned his promotion. He entered tonight with an era around 5 and then proceeded to get shelled.

Nate Adcock: Adcock was viewed as a darkhorse rotation candidate entering the season. Adcock could be granted a few starts as the Royals wait for Monty and/or Duffy to prove themselves and delay their Super 2.

Kevin Pucetas/Luis Mendoza/Blake Johnson: All are on the 40-man roster so the Royals could use them as stop gaps until they believe one of the prospects are ready. If the Royals aren't comfortable with the previous options then it is safe to assume that they would write off Mazzaro's poor performance tonight to circumstance and allow him to continue work until the farm is ready.