Don't Panic! ...Yet.

So after a weekend in which we saw the Royals get swept by their Surprise, Arizona counterparts, it is natural to believe that this will be the beginning of the end for contention hopes. We've seen this act before. You know the one where the Royals get off to a hot start and then after a rough road trip, losing streak, or a stretch of bullpen meltdowns they go into a tailspin and reclaim their rightful place in the cellar of the AL Central.

The Royals are 2-5 in the last week. They have lost three straight games in Texas by a combined eight runs. But consider this: entering the series at Texas the Royals were the last remaining AL team to not split or lose a series. This wasn't going to continue forever and while we hoped the Royals could at least steal one win, they won't be the last team this season to get swept in the home of the defending AL champions.

This week could have been the statement that the team and it's fans needed to really begin to believe. A four game showdown with the first place Indians and a trip to Texas. Instead the Royals won just two games. Dissappointing to say the least. But wait. The Royals after an incredibly dissappointing week find themselves just 1.5 games out of first place and tied for second place in the division.

The Royals just had the worst week of their young season. A week that saw them win just two of seven games. They began the week in second place and 1 game out of first and they ended the week in second place just 1.5 games out of first.

Even after a week that saw their opponents outscore them 30-42, the Royals maintain a positive run differential of 112-105, meaning they are one of seven American League teams with a positive number. Plug that figure into the pythagorean thereom for baseball records and we find that the Royals should be standing at twelve wins. The Royals record right now? 12-10.

Maybe the Royals have gotten off to the fast start because of that easy schedule we all talked about prior to the season. That would be an indication of looming dissappointment except that it isn't true. Actually thus far the Royals rank third in strength of schedule for all of baseball with a combined opponent's winning percentage of .530. The Tigers rank 15th, Indians 17th, White Sox 20th and Twins 26th. Who has really played the easy schedule?

As a result of their run differential and their strength of schedule the Royals rank fourth in espn's rpi formula (highest in AL Central) and seventh (second in the AL Central) in espn's power rankings. Of course we know that championships aren't awarded based off computer formulas (not in professional baseball at least), so the Royals need to continue to win.

This week could be the statement week for the boys in blue. The Royals will begin the week 1.5 games out of first with a three game series at the first place Cleveland Indians followed by thre home games against a defending division champ. It doesn't sound like the Royals are out of contention. Not yet.

Louis Coleman Gets the Call

Congratulations to Louis Coleman for receiving his well deserved call to the Major Leagues! Coleman was drafted in the 5th round of the 2009 draft and after he recorded the final out of the college world series signed with the Kansas City Royals. Coleman pitched his first season in Burlington and Wilmington and posted a 1.66 era with 9.1 strikeouts per 9 innings with just 1.7 walks per 9 innings.

Coleman continued his success in 2010 with double-A Northwest Arkansas and triple-A Omaha. Between his two stops he had a 2.15 era and saw his K rate rise to 10.1 per 9 innings. Coleman dazzled in Spring Training and was one of the last cuts before the club headed north to Kansas City. Had he been on the 40 man roster entering the season he likely would have been a key member of the bullpen right from the start.

Eighteen games into the season it doesn't make a difference as Louis Coleman gets the call for righty Kanekoa Texeira. Texeira had gotten by with great luck for the first part of the year and finally gave up his first run last night against the Indians. I appluad the Royals for recognizing that his early season success was unsustainable.

Coleman joining the big league club gives the Royals their sixth rookie of the season. Five of those rookies will be working from the bullpen. I expect Coleman to immediately become a go to guy for manager Ned Yost in close games.

Where can we Upgrade?

So with the Royals surprise start, I have began to think about what it means in terms of the prospects. What should the Royals do if they stay in contention? Stick with the Major Leaguers? Promote players that could help now? Trade them? Or not let the state of the Major League team affect the plan?

I don't want to get into that discussion right now, but I do want to think what positions the Royals could upgrade by promotions from within. So let's look at the weaknesses of the Major League roster.

1. Catcher

Unfortunately I see know potential solutions at the catcher position right now. No prospects are going to be ready midseason, although at some point Jason Kendall will return from injury. This would probably mean that Pena is the odd man out and the Royals would lose all offensive potential at the position.

2. First Base

Kila Ka'aihue at this point is not getting it done. Through the first fifteen games he's hitting .174/.304/.283 and with Hosmer tearing it up in Omaha an upgrade is readily available. I believe Ka'aihue will have until early June to get something going, but if he hasn't by then it will likely be Eric Hosmer's time to shine.

3. Second Base

Should Getz falter with the bat second base is another production that could be upgraded as the season progresses. This could occur in one of two ways. The most likely probably involves a Mike Moustakas promotion and Mike Aviles sliding over across the diamond. But the other solution involves the promotion of Johnny Giavotella. Giavotella's defense is much improved and after tearing up both the Texas League and the Arizona Fall League a season ago he is off to a hot start in Omaha.

4. Third Base

In case you haven't heard the Royals have the top third base prospect in all of baseball. He is in triple-A now and a year ago he led minor league baseball in home runs. He also recorded more extra base hits than strikeouts. Mike Moustakas could provide a big boost to the middle of the order should he hit the ground running on his promotion.

5. Centerfield

Right now most fans and Kansas City media treat Melky Cabrerra like he is off to a good start. Personally I'm not a fan of sub .300 on base percentages. Most fans would suggest Lorenzo Cain as an upgrade but I'd also like to throw David Lough's name into the mix. He has a great blend of tools and if he can outproduce Cain over the next couple of months then I'd like to see him granted the first opportunity.

6. Rotation

Here is where the Royals could receive the biggest boost this season. Right now the Royals have three rotation spots that have produced consistently but they could look to bolster the rotation by promoting Mike Montgomery and/or Danny Duffy. If Davies can get it going and be a servicable back end guy then the Royals could add one of the aforementioned prospects and have a decent unit. If they added both and they both perform as they could the rotation could have two of the top young starters in baseball.

The Royals have shocked baseball with their quick start much like they did in 2003. However, unlike that season the Royals could have enough bullets in the minor league gun to reload for a Central title run. Hopefully they can continue to overachieve long enough to find out.

Poll Results are in:

On the same day that Sean O'Sullivan and the Kansas City pen carved up the Mariners for a shutout the poll for Royals home run leader came to a close. Here is how you voted:

• Billy Butler- 9 votes (18%)


• Jeff Francoeur- 4 votes (7%)


• Alex Gordon- 10 votes (18)


• Kila Ka'aihue- 29 votes (54%)


• Mike Moustakas- 1 vote (1%)


• There were no votes for any other players.

Right now Jeff Francoeur, Billy Butler, and Matt Traenor lead the Royals with 2 home runs. This would put each of them on pace to hit 23 for the season. Behind them Mike Aviles, Wilson Betemit, Melky Cabrerra, Alex Gordon, and Kila Ka'aihue all have 1, which is a pace of 12 for the season.

Be sure to vote in the new poll regarding possible contention and the handling of prospects!

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2001 KC Royals Farm System Part 3

So I think we can conclude that the Royals farm system from 2001 wasn't exactly as productive as we may have hoped. Without comparing the numbers to other systems it is tough to say exactly what contibutions we should have expected, but I think a total career WAR of 6.2 for the Royals 2001 top 30 falls short of expectations.

Here is a look at how the players ranked in terms of WAR. Their 2001 ranking is including after in parenthesis.

1. Jeremy Affeldt 6.7 (16)

2. Angel Berroa 3.2 (6)

3. Mike MacDougal 2.1 (3)

4. Brian Sanches 2.0 (13)

5. Jimmy Gobble 1.9 (4)

t6. Scott Mullen 0.6 (19)

t6. Corey Thurman 0.6 (15)

8. Mike Tonis 0.0 (14)

9. Orber Moreno -0.1 (17)

10. Tony Cogan -0.2 (24)

t11. Paul Phillips -0.4 (23)

t11. Alexis Gomez -0.4 (9)

t11. Byron Gettis -0.4 (29)

t14. Kyle Snyder -0.7 (10)

t14. Ryan Bukvich -0.7 (12)

t16. Chris George -1.0 (1)

t16.Jeff Austin -1.0 (5)

18. Ken Harvey -1.2 (7)

19. Wes Obermueller -2.0 (27)

20. Dee Brown -2.8 (2)

Not too shocking to learn that Dee Brown brings up the bottom of this list. The fact is that top prospects are granted the most opportunities despite poor Major League performance. For this reason Brown was able to build up more negative WAR than many of his counterparts. This doesn't necessarily mean he was a worse player.

I was a little surprised to learn that 20 out of the 30 prospects in the 2001 snapshot of the organization reached the Major League level. A big part of this is that the Royals were about to begin the roughest stretch of their history losing 100 games or more in three out of four seasons. Because of this stretch many players in the organization were granted an opportunity that a strong organization would not have afforded them.

While the Royals had a 67% success rate at converting their top 30 prospects into Major Leaguers, arguably only one became a consistent Major Leaguer: Jeremy Affeldt. Berroa also played several years at the Major League level but other than his rookie season he didn't post a single campaign with a positive WAR value.

Here is a breakdown of WAR by position:

Obviously the position that contributed the most were the left handed pitchers. This was greatly enhanced by Jeremy Affeldt's success, but of all the positions that had more than one players in the rankings left handed pitching was the most succesful at reaching the Major Leagues. Five of the eight southpaws on the list reached the highest level.

Here is a list of the prospects that never reached the Majors:

8. Mike Stodolka LHP

11. Shawn Sonnier RHP

18. Junior Guerrero RHP

20. Mike Curry OF

21. Robbie Morrison RHP

22. Jeremy Dodson OF

26. Jason Kaanoi RHP

27. Scott Walter C

28. Ryan Baerlocher RHP

30. Jonathan Guzman OF

As you can see there probably wasn't a bigger disappointment in the system than Mike Stodolka. But there were also points when Shawn Sonnier ad Junior Guerrero were discussed as future closer posibilities. Mike Curry showed a good blend of speed and on base skills. Jeremy Dodson dominated in his professional debut. Walter was a third round pick. Baerlocher had great minor league success and Guzman was labeled as a potential five tool talent.

The position that performed the worst and seems to have been the most overrated in the 2001 rankings was outfield. There were six prospects listed in the rankings. Of the three that reached the Majors none produced a positive WAR in their career or in a single season. The three other outfield prospects ranked didn't even reach the Major League level.

What we can take from this quick study is that the Royals 2001 system produced its fair share of Major Leaguers. But this was a result of vast opportunity on the Major League team and not a result of a player being above replacement level.

As a small market team it is critical for the Royals to not only produce Major Leaguers, but for them to top tier talent. The 2001 Royals system failed to produce one top tier guy and as a result of this the organization took a huge dive that saw 100 loss seasons in 2002, 2004, and 2005. When the pipeline ran dry the results got ugly.

The talent that the Royals had at the Major League level wasn't enough to contend and the talent that was considered top tier either left via trade, free agency, or disabled list. This group was supposed to provide the team with a brand new young rotation. Instead not one pitcher in the group would become a consisten big league starter.

This group of talent was supposed to provide the Royals with a fixtures at the shortstop and right field positions. Instead the shortstop collapsed after a Rookie of the Year and the rightfielder never sniffed Major League success.

What this group did provide was a few relievers that were serviceable for a few seasons. The Royals were left to fill an entire roster with below replacement level prospects or scrap heap guys. The system that former GM Allard Baird inherited had zero future regulars and no future rotation options. Baird managed a magical run in 2003, but never had the funds necessary to commit to the farm system the way it needed to be done.

Amazingly with no players that developed into solid regulars, and only one guy that had what could be called a quality Major League career. The Royals system was ranked 14th in 2001. They ranked ahead of the Minnesota Twins, Detroit Tigers, and the Cleveland Indians, yet for the next decade more often than not the Royals would rank behind all these teams in the standings that do matter. The standings that actually track wins and losses.