The Royals pick up the interleague play schedule again tonight with a three game set at St. Louis. As a fan of the Royals I am incredibly blessed to finally get an opportunity to see the great strategy of baseball. I mean I can't imagine what sort of solution the Royals will come up with when there is a man on second and the pitcher for the Cardinals is on deck tonight. I just don't know what the Royals will do to handle that sort of situation.
Of course based on the latest rumors regarding possible realignment we could see much more of this awesome strategy in the future. However, if the league was to go to just two fifteen team leagues with no divisions, I suspect that they would either totally do away with the dh, or add the dh for the National League.
Considering the DH provides aging sluggers jobs and already is providing fourteen job opportunities a year, I doubt that the player's union would be very happy to see the dh cut fromt he league rules. More likely the NL would add the dh as a way to appease the Player's Union in order for the league to get their way on another subject.
I am a huge proponent of the DH for the American League. But I can't say I would be totally happy if the National League adopted the rule. I am a bit ambivalent on the subject. On one hand I hate that a player like Billy Butler is basically forced to the bench because the National League thinks a pitcher should have to bat, even though they are in no way a major league player because they can hit. On the other hand it seems weird to think that the National League would adopt the DH and the days of pitchers hitting would be totally behind us.
Speaking of realignment, it will be interesting to see how this situation plays out. It seems a foregone conclusion that baseball will expand the playoffs to allow five teams into the postseason. The way realignment is gaining steam we could be saying the same for it in a few months. It is my hope however that baseball will consider other solutions before making a decision on the matter.
So far we have heard about floating realignment, and the latest proposal that involves one team moving from the NL to AL and the divisions being removed from the equation. What I would also be interested in seeing discussed would be expansion to 32 teams.
For some reason in American Sports 30 has always been the magic number for sports leagues, however mathematically and for schedule purposes that number should be 32. The NFL has expanded to this number and they have found the benefits to such a round number. Eight divisions of four teams each. Also, if the league wanted to expand and also tap back into that older style they could have four divisions of eight teams each.
I think this is a proposal that should definitely be considered. Some people fear that the game has been watered down and talent isn't what it used to be. However, for every one person that dies, seven people are born. What I am saying is that the potential market for baseball players is expanding at a rapid rate, and when you consider that baseball is branching out to new frontiers it isn't hard to imagine finding fifty more players a year to fill out major league rosters.
The biggest problem with expansion is dealing with television markets. Considering that the entire US is already claimed by teams there isn't much space for other teams to encroach enough to claim their own territory. However, many teams already share territories with other teams and as we saw with the Expos move to Washington deals can be struck to benefit both sides.
Another solution that could be easier for teams would be for the expansion to occur outside the continental United States. There are several cities that could be deserving of a team and have been considered in the past that would fit this criteria: San Juan, Monterrey, Vancouver, and Montreal. By exapanded to any two of these cities Major League Baseball could expand its brand.
Obviously there would be different difficulties to overcome should the MLB consider this route, for example currency exchange and international television rights. But the point is that there would be issues to overcome in any situation involving relocation and expansion but the benefits could be worth it.
I don't know what solutions will be proposed and considered by the Commisioners office, but I am hoping that creative solutions are considered. At this point I would almost be surprised if realignment doesn't occur.
Friday, June 17, 2011
Thursday, June 16, 2011
Catching Up
I am finally back in the States, so I am glad to get to watch Royals games once again. It was a tough month but I followed the boxscores every day and it seems like I didn't miss much in the form of great baseball.
When I left on Tuesday, May 17 the Royals were 20-20. While I was gone the Royals played at a 9-17 clip, and since I have returned they are 1-1. What is really amazing though is that even though the Royals have played so horrible over the last month they find themselves only 7 games out of first.
The summer is far from over and there are definitely signs of life from the boys in blue. The Royals are 4-2 in their last six games, and for a team that has historically played well agains the National League there could be reason for optimism moving forward.
The Royals winning percentage over the last six seasons against NL clubs is .577. They are 1-2 so far this season so for them to put up a similar winning percentage in 2011 they would have to finish interleague play at a 9-6 mark.
The division is shaping up to be a tight race moving forward so if the Royals can get one hot streak they are going to find themselves right in the thick of things once again. Just as they were a month ago.
********
While I was gone the Royals also drafted local legend Bubba Starling with the fifth overall selection of the draft. I would love to see the Royals sign Starling fast and get him some games as soon as possible. I even have a slight hope that because Nebraska reports for football on July 10 that there could be pressure for him to strike a deal sooner rather than later. However, most likely the negotiations will go right down to the wire.
As for my thoughts on the selection. I think that given the way the draft unfolded the Royals weren't really left with the opportunity to go another route without clearly making a reach selection. Given the factors at play I believe the Royals made the best selection for their organization.
Also, given the way they were so high school heavy in the later rounds, I think it is apparent that they are committed to the first wave as is, and have now begun the process of focusing on that second wave. Given the work the team has done in Latin America and through the draft in the later rounds, they are already way ahead of where they were four years ago when they first began work on the first wave.
*********
The other major story for the Royals over the last month was the promotion of Mike Moustakas. Moustakas's season line may not have been screaming domination, but over the last month and a half he caught fire. The promotion was warranted, and it is just the latest move that helps to put the Royals into serious contention in 2012.
Going into the season the Royals needed to get Hosmer and Moustakas as many big league at bats as possible in order to allow them to be ready to hit the ground running in 2012. By promoting these two players when they did I believe they will have successfully accomplished this goal.
When I left on Tuesday, May 17 the Royals were 20-20. While I was gone the Royals played at a 9-17 clip, and since I have returned they are 1-1. What is really amazing though is that even though the Royals have played so horrible over the last month they find themselves only 7 games out of first.
The summer is far from over and there are definitely signs of life from the boys in blue. The Royals are 4-2 in their last six games, and for a team that has historically played well agains the National League there could be reason for optimism moving forward.
The Royals winning percentage over the last six seasons against NL clubs is .577. They are 1-2 so far this season so for them to put up a similar winning percentage in 2011 they would have to finish interleague play at a 9-6 mark.
The division is shaping up to be a tight race moving forward so if the Royals can get one hot streak they are going to find themselves right in the thick of things once again. Just as they were a month ago.
********
While I was gone the Royals also drafted local legend Bubba Starling with the fifth overall selection of the draft. I would love to see the Royals sign Starling fast and get him some games as soon as possible. I even have a slight hope that because Nebraska reports for football on July 10 that there could be pressure for him to strike a deal sooner rather than later. However, most likely the negotiations will go right down to the wire.
As for my thoughts on the selection. I think that given the way the draft unfolded the Royals weren't really left with the opportunity to go another route without clearly making a reach selection. Given the factors at play I believe the Royals made the best selection for their organization.
Also, given the way they were so high school heavy in the later rounds, I think it is apparent that they are committed to the first wave as is, and have now begun the process of focusing on that second wave. Given the work the team has done in Latin America and through the draft in the later rounds, they are already way ahead of where they were four years ago when they first began work on the first wave.
*********
The other major story for the Royals over the last month was the promotion of Mike Moustakas. Moustakas's season line may not have been screaming domination, but over the last month and a half he caught fire. The promotion was warranted, and it is just the latest move that helps to put the Royals into serious contention in 2012.
Going into the season the Royals needed to get Hosmer and Moustakas as many big league at bats as possible in order to allow them to be ready to hit the ground running in 2012. By promoting these two players when they did I believe they will have successfully accomplished this goal.
Tuesday, June 7, 2011
Second Day
I'll write on Bubba when I get a chance, but as Royals fans we have grown to love the next few rounds just as much as the first. This is because of the Royals tendency to nab top talent and lure it to KC with massive amounts of cash. So here are some names we should watch out for in day 2:
Name, School, Pos, BA PreDraft Rank, MLB Predraft Rank
Josh Bell, Texas HS, OF, 15, 23
Austin Hedges, California HS, C, 28, 31
Andrew Susac, Oregon State, C, 30, 35
Alex Dickerson, Indiana, OF, 37, 42
Peter O'Brien, Bethune Cookman, C, 103, 39
Jason Esposito, Vanderbilt, 3B, 77, 40
Derek Fisher, Pennsylvania HS, OF, 41, 66
Johnny Eirman, Missouri HS, SS/OF, 84
Daniel Norris, Tennessee HS, LHP, 16, 15
John Stilson, Texas A&M, RHP, 23
Dillon Howard, Arkansas HS, RHP, 31, 18
Matt Purke, TCU, LHP, 32, 27
Anthony Meo, Coastal Carolina, RHP, 55,26
Just some names for Royals fans to keep their eyes on. There are still quite a few guys left that would be great second round picks. I am especially intrigued by Daniel Norris, Austin Hedges and Josh Bell. If Purke falls a bit more I would also be thrilled if the Royals took a shot on him.
Name, School, Pos, BA PreDraft Rank, MLB Predraft Rank
Josh Bell, Texas HS, OF, 15, 23
Austin Hedges, California HS, C, 28, 31
Andrew Susac, Oregon State, C, 30, 35
Alex Dickerson, Indiana, OF, 37, 42
Peter O'Brien, Bethune Cookman, C, 103, 39
Jason Esposito, Vanderbilt, 3B, 77, 40
Derek Fisher, Pennsylvania HS, OF, 41, 66
Johnny Eirman, Missouri HS, SS/OF, 84
Daniel Norris, Tennessee HS, LHP, 16, 15
John Stilson, Texas A&M, RHP, 23
Dillon Howard, Arkansas HS, RHP, 31, 18
Matt Purke, TCU, LHP, 32, 27
Anthony Meo, Coastal Carolina, RHP, 55,26
Just some names for Royals fans to keep their eyes on. There are still quite a few guys left that would be great second round picks. I am especially intrigued by Daniel Norris, Austin Hedges and Josh Bell. If Purke falls a bit more I would also be thrilled if the Royals took a shot on him.
Sunday, June 5, 2011
Just a Draft
So the draft is right around the corner and I don't think I am alone in the feeling that this has become one of the best days of the year for Royals fans. This is probably because the Royals have really done well under the current administration which is evidence in their top ranking farm system. Also, even though it is loads of fun picking high in the draft the Royals have also made habit of selecting top talents later in the draft and signing them for big time deals.
I am hoping for more of the same this year and here is how I feel about the players that should be available. I will begin by stating that the Royals have finally gotten a break in their draft position. There is a clear top 6 available so the Royals should have an option when they select at number 5. If the Royals select any of the top six players I will be thrilled and extremely happy with the pick. However, if the Royals decide to reach beyond the consensus at the spot I can't help but be skeptical.
This is not to say that I feel like I know more about these prospects than the organization does, but when people agree so strongly on six players going in the top six it makes me feel as though the Royals could really botch an opportunity should they make a reach pick. So without further ado... (I am going to place the players in my personal preference order, again this is splitting hairs among these prospects.)
1. Gerrit Cole RHP- For a guy to be considered a top pick contender after his freshman year and than become the favorite to be selected first for most of the time in the months leading up to the draft he would be an awesome steal for the Royals at 5. Reports are that his stuff is incredible and I remember him saying last year while at a Royals game that he would love to be a part of this organization. If a rough season allows him to slide to 5, then from a Royals perspective we may have just gotten a steal. I believe the rumors to be true that Gerrit Cole will be selected by Pittsburgh tomorrow night.
2. Dylan Bundy RHP- I love the upside, I love his proximity to the Majors. He could rise as fast as a college pitcher and probably has the highest ceiling of any of the pitchers in the draft. His numbers were absolutely dominate in his senior season at Owasso High School in Oklahoma. He had 158 strikeouts to 5 walks in 71 innings with a 0.20 era. I think Bundy will probably join his brother in Baltimore's organization.
3. Anythony Rendon 3B- I don't think there is much of a chance he falls to number 5, but if he did it would be an extremely interesting situation for the Royals. A year ago he was a clear cut number 1 choice. He has dealt with some injuries, but none of them are expected to hurt him moving forward. He is the best combination of high ceiling and high floor in this draft. If the is there at 5 and the other two guys aren't the Royals should draft him and figure where everyone plays later. I expect him to be draft at 2 by Seattle.
4. Danny Hultzen LHP- I know the Royals have a stable of lefties but right now Lamb is out for the year and Monty and Dwyer are struggling. By drafting Hultzen you could add a pitcher as close to Major League ready as you are going to find in a draft and he could really help to push contention forward to 2012. His ceiling isn't as high as the other players on this list, but his floor might be. If he is available at 5 he would be really hard to pass up. Most say that Hultzen to Arizona is the surest pick in the whole draft.
5. Bubba Starling CF- This is where it gets difficult. The Royals could continue to build that second wave, which is already starting to look impressive or they could add the sixth guy on my list who seems to fit what they want. My thoughts on Bubba are basically summed up here: How often does a team get the opportunity to draft the player with the highest upside and most hype at number 5 overall. This is a truly special draft.
6. Trevor Bauer- Bauer is a long toss guy and an innings eating machine even though he is only 20 years old. He could be ready for the majors as fast as Hultzen and he could be an ace in the Lincecum type mold when he gets there. If the Royals are scared about is arm and aren't comfortable with his training methods then Starling should be the choice. But if they are confident that Bauer is just a unique kid and can handle the work and will be able to going forward then Bauer seems like the most logical choice in the 5 spot.
Tomorrow night there will be several things at play when the Royals select. Obviously how will the first 4 picks have gone? Will they be able to nab one of the guys most predict as going in that first 4 range? But if it comes down to Starling vs Bauer? Will they go with the local kid? Will they take a step back from their stance on long tossing? Will they add to the first wave? Will they work on the second? Or will they draft for need and comfort and make a reach pick? Either way this is a truly special draft and I can't wait to watch it unfold.
I am hoping for more of the same this year and here is how I feel about the players that should be available. I will begin by stating that the Royals have finally gotten a break in their draft position. There is a clear top 6 available so the Royals should have an option when they select at number 5. If the Royals select any of the top six players I will be thrilled and extremely happy with the pick. However, if the Royals decide to reach beyond the consensus at the spot I can't help but be skeptical.
This is not to say that I feel like I know more about these prospects than the organization does, but when people agree so strongly on six players going in the top six it makes me feel as though the Royals could really botch an opportunity should they make a reach pick. So without further ado... (I am going to place the players in my personal preference order, again this is splitting hairs among these prospects.)
1. Gerrit Cole RHP- For a guy to be considered a top pick contender after his freshman year and than become the favorite to be selected first for most of the time in the months leading up to the draft he would be an awesome steal for the Royals at 5. Reports are that his stuff is incredible and I remember him saying last year while at a Royals game that he would love to be a part of this organization. If a rough season allows him to slide to 5, then from a Royals perspective we may have just gotten a steal. I believe the rumors to be true that Gerrit Cole will be selected by Pittsburgh tomorrow night.
2. Dylan Bundy RHP- I love the upside, I love his proximity to the Majors. He could rise as fast as a college pitcher and probably has the highest ceiling of any of the pitchers in the draft. His numbers were absolutely dominate in his senior season at Owasso High School in Oklahoma. He had 158 strikeouts to 5 walks in 71 innings with a 0.20 era. I think Bundy will probably join his brother in Baltimore's organization.
3. Anythony Rendon 3B- I don't think there is much of a chance he falls to number 5, but if he did it would be an extremely interesting situation for the Royals. A year ago he was a clear cut number 1 choice. He has dealt with some injuries, but none of them are expected to hurt him moving forward. He is the best combination of high ceiling and high floor in this draft. If the is there at 5 and the other two guys aren't the Royals should draft him and figure where everyone plays later. I expect him to be draft at 2 by Seattle.
4. Danny Hultzen LHP- I know the Royals have a stable of lefties but right now Lamb is out for the year and Monty and Dwyer are struggling. By drafting Hultzen you could add a pitcher as close to Major League ready as you are going to find in a draft and he could really help to push contention forward to 2012. His ceiling isn't as high as the other players on this list, but his floor might be. If he is available at 5 he would be really hard to pass up. Most say that Hultzen to Arizona is the surest pick in the whole draft.
5. Bubba Starling CF- This is where it gets difficult. The Royals could continue to build that second wave, which is already starting to look impressive or they could add the sixth guy on my list who seems to fit what they want. My thoughts on Bubba are basically summed up here: How often does a team get the opportunity to draft the player with the highest upside and most hype at number 5 overall. This is a truly special draft.
6. Trevor Bauer- Bauer is a long toss guy and an innings eating machine even though he is only 20 years old. He could be ready for the majors as fast as Hultzen and he could be an ace in the Lincecum type mold when he gets there. If the Royals are scared about is arm and aren't comfortable with his training methods then Starling should be the choice. But if they are confident that Bauer is just a unique kid and can handle the work and will be able to going forward then Bauer seems like the most logical choice in the 5 spot.
Tomorrow night there will be several things at play when the Royals select. Obviously how will the first 4 picks have gone? Will they be able to nab one of the guys most predict as going in that first 4 range? But if it comes down to Starling vs Bauer? Will they go with the local kid? Will they take a step back from their stance on long tossing? Will they add to the first wave? Will they work on the second? Or will they draft for need and comfort and make a reach pick? Either way this is a truly special draft and I can't wait to watch it unfold.
Friday, June 3, 2011
A Modest Proposition.
Let me preface this post by stating I don't expect the Royals to take the route that I am about to suggest. I myself am not totally convinced that it would be the wisest move, but I have thought about it a bit and I want to throw my thoughts out there for Royals fans. It would be a bold move and the potential reward would be great.
The fact is that for whatever reason Joakim Soria isn't the pitcher that we have grown to love. There are no obvious signs mechanically for why this is the case, but looking at his numbers it is blatantly obvious that he has lost his command. But if it isn't a mechanical issue why has he lost the ability to feel his pitches? We'll get back to this in a second.
But what Soria's shakiness and demotion could be for the Royals is opportunity. When Soria took over as closer for the Royals in 2007, he quickly established himself as one of the premier closers in the game. He never had your typical closer's stuff, and many considered his array of pitches more in line with what you would expect from a starter. What Soria did have was the "closer mentality." Joakim was Mr. Cool. Even when a team would get a rally going or when Joakim would enter the game in a tight spot it was obvious that he wasn't concerned.
This season, however, he hasn't gave off that same vibe of confidence. He has gotten behind in the count early and often and because of this hasn't had the benefit of getting hitters off balance. His walk rate is 3.8 which is by far the highest of his career. I believe that the reason Soria has fallen off is that his mentality is gone.
I have no idea why Soria has lost his killer instinct, or what has caused this but at this point it is nowhere to be found. Just look at this quotation from Soria in today's KC Star:
“I felt I had better command today,” Soria said. “I didn’t change anything in my mechanics. I just go ahead and try to change my mentality a little bit.”
This statement strikes me as a guy that is just trying to get his mound presence back. So if his stuff is still sharp... and if his command is still there when he is composed (he threw five of six first pitch strikes yesterday)... then maybe now is the prime opportunity for the Royals to move him to the rotation. This would be especially easy at this point, because there is no longer of the fear of breaking something that didn't need fixing.
Obviously if the Royals attempt this there is the possibility that something could go wrong. It is natural to think that if he can't hack it as a reliever then why would he hack it as a starter? But like I said stuff doesn't seem to be the concern, and it was always his mentality that really put him into that closer role.
You could make the point that Soria could be prone to injury should the Royals attempt to stretch him out? That is a valid fear, but it wouldn't be the first time a reliever has been given the opportunity and when Soria has been injured in the past the cause was believed to be lack of consistent innings, not because he was logging to many innings.
Even when Soria has been effective as a reliever his WAR has been on average 2.0 according to fangraphs. Don't get me wrong this is about as high as one could expect from a relief pitcher. However, in 2010 there were ninety-four pitchers that posted a stronger total. Meaning Soria was considered as valuable as starters like Paul Maholm, Carlos Silva, Barry Zito and oh yeah, Kyle Davies posted a WAR of 2.0 in 2010.
What this means is that even though Soria had the ninth best WAR among relievers in 2010, his value didn't lead to anymore Royals wins then Kyle Davies. Let that sink in. Now the value of a closer will not cease to be a hot topic among traditionalists and sabermetricians anytime soon. It seems that using this argument we are seeing at least a somewhat undervaluation. However, even if that is the case Soria would be much more valuable to the team in the rotation than in the bullpen.
What we see in this illustration is that even if Soria transitioned to the rotation and he didn't become the ace or frontline guy that many would expect, he would still be vastly more valuable as a 3 or 4 starter than he would be as a closer. This is definitely something that should not be overlooked.
Value is something that the Royals will need to maximize, especially with the rotation in the short run if they truly want to contend in 2012. Right now there pessimism brewing regarding the farm system particularly the young arms up at the top. Danny Duffy has performed well, but Mike Montgomery has struggled more than anticipated, John Lamb is out for the season, and Chris Dwyer has been dreadful. What this means is that the Royals may not have the arms to contend as early as next season, unless they either think creatively, look outside the organization or both.
By moving Soria to the rotation you could be potentially be adding a frontline arm without shelling out the cash on the free agent market that it would take to acquire one. At this point the rotation options for opening day next year are: Danny Duffy, Luke Hochevar, Sean O'Sullivan, Vin Mazzaro, and Mike Montgomery if he is able to right the ship. Not exactly an awe-inspiring bunch.
Duffy will be a strength and Hochevar seems to warrant a spot, but I don't believe that O'Sullivan and Mazzaro have done anything to show they are more than AAAA guys and even if Montgomery becomes the ace that we are hoping for by next season, the Royals still have two gaping holes. Soria, could be the answer that we are looking for.
If the Royals believe that Soria's struggles are due to command issues, perhaps they should take the same route they did with Jeremy Jeffress. Let him start, give him the greatest opportunity to improve or get back his command. The most critical thing is that Soria is able to regain his value and if a move to the rotation does that it will be the best thing for all of us.
But if Soria's struggles are rooted purely in mentality as I am suggesting, the opportunity is there for the Royals to improve on an area of great weakness. Crow moves into the closer role and does his thing, with Joakim Soria becoming the frontline guy that Kansas City is lacking right now. If that turns out to be the case then we can really start to gear up for contention in 2012.
The fact is that for whatever reason Joakim Soria isn't the pitcher that we have grown to love. There are no obvious signs mechanically for why this is the case, but looking at his numbers it is blatantly obvious that he has lost his command. But if it isn't a mechanical issue why has he lost the ability to feel his pitches? We'll get back to this in a second.
But what Soria's shakiness and demotion could be for the Royals is opportunity. When Soria took over as closer for the Royals in 2007, he quickly established himself as one of the premier closers in the game. He never had your typical closer's stuff, and many considered his array of pitches more in line with what you would expect from a starter. What Soria did have was the "closer mentality." Joakim was Mr. Cool. Even when a team would get a rally going or when Joakim would enter the game in a tight spot it was obvious that he wasn't concerned.
This season, however, he hasn't gave off that same vibe of confidence. He has gotten behind in the count early and often and because of this hasn't had the benefit of getting hitters off balance. His walk rate is 3.8 which is by far the highest of his career. I believe that the reason Soria has fallen off is that his mentality is gone.
I have no idea why Soria has lost his killer instinct, or what has caused this but at this point it is nowhere to be found. Just look at this quotation from Soria in today's KC Star:
“I felt I had better command today,” Soria said. “I didn’t change anything in my mechanics. I just go ahead and try to change my mentality a little bit.”
This statement strikes me as a guy that is just trying to get his mound presence back. So if his stuff is still sharp... and if his command is still there when he is composed (he threw five of six first pitch strikes yesterday)... then maybe now is the prime opportunity for the Royals to move him to the rotation. This would be especially easy at this point, because there is no longer of the fear of breaking something that didn't need fixing.
Obviously if the Royals attempt this there is the possibility that something could go wrong. It is natural to think that if he can't hack it as a reliever then why would he hack it as a starter? But like I said stuff doesn't seem to be the concern, and it was always his mentality that really put him into that closer role.
You could make the point that Soria could be prone to injury should the Royals attempt to stretch him out? That is a valid fear, but it wouldn't be the first time a reliever has been given the opportunity and when Soria has been injured in the past the cause was believed to be lack of consistent innings, not because he was logging to many innings.
Even when Soria has been effective as a reliever his WAR has been on average 2.0 according to fangraphs. Don't get me wrong this is about as high as one could expect from a relief pitcher. However, in 2010 there were ninety-four pitchers that posted a stronger total. Meaning Soria was considered as valuable as starters like Paul Maholm, Carlos Silva, Barry Zito and oh yeah, Kyle Davies posted a WAR of 2.0 in 2010.
What this means is that even though Soria had the ninth best WAR among relievers in 2010, his value didn't lead to anymore Royals wins then Kyle Davies. Let that sink in. Now the value of a closer will not cease to be a hot topic among traditionalists and sabermetricians anytime soon. It seems that using this argument we are seeing at least a somewhat undervaluation. However, even if that is the case Soria would be much more valuable to the team in the rotation than in the bullpen.
What we see in this illustration is that even if Soria transitioned to the rotation and he didn't become the ace or frontline guy that many would expect, he would still be vastly more valuable as a 3 or 4 starter than he would be as a closer. This is definitely something that should not be overlooked.
Value is something that the Royals will need to maximize, especially with the rotation in the short run if they truly want to contend in 2012. Right now there pessimism brewing regarding the farm system particularly the young arms up at the top. Danny Duffy has performed well, but Mike Montgomery has struggled more than anticipated, John Lamb is out for the season, and Chris Dwyer has been dreadful. What this means is that the Royals may not have the arms to contend as early as next season, unless they either think creatively, look outside the organization or both.
By moving Soria to the rotation you could be potentially be adding a frontline arm without shelling out the cash on the free agent market that it would take to acquire one. At this point the rotation options for opening day next year are: Danny Duffy, Luke Hochevar, Sean O'Sullivan, Vin Mazzaro, and Mike Montgomery if he is able to right the ship. Not exactly an awe-inspiring bunch.
Duffy will be a strength and Hochevar seems to warrant a spot, but I don't believe that O'Sullivan and Mazzaro have done anything to show they are more than AAAA guys and even if Montgomery becomes the ace that we are hoping for by next season, the Royals still have two gaping holes. Soria, could be the answer that we are looking for.
If the Royals believe that Soria's struggles are due to command issues, perhaps they should take the same route they did with Jeremy Jeffress. Let him start, give him the greatest opportunity to improve or get back his command. The most critical thing is that Soria is able to regain his value and if a move to the rotation does that it will be the best thing for all of us.
But if Soria's struggles are rooted purely in mentality as I am suggesting, the opportunity is there for the Royals to improve on an area of great weakness. Crow moves into the closer role and does his thing, with Joakim Soria becoming the frontline guy that Kansas City is lacking right now. If that turns out to be the case then we can really start to gear up for contention in 2012.
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