Earlier today we learned that according to Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star, the Mariners and Orioles are both showing strong interest toward Billy Butler. Of course, Butler would be an incredibly tough asset to part ways with, and while it likely isn't a shock, according to a source I have that has spoken with David Glass, the organization is conflicted regarding the 26 year old designated hitter. He would be incredibly valuable on the trade market, but he has huge value to the team in that he is one of the few sure things on the roster. Based off my conversations, it sounds to me like Kansas City would have to be floored by an offer to move Bill the Thrill.
But what would it take?
Seattle Mariners Thoughts
As far as Seattle is concerned, the Royals would have to look to fill multiple holes in any trade. What I mean by this, is that not only would Seattle have to send a young arm Kansas City's way, but they would also have to send a hitter. There are two hitters that fit the bill. First, there is Nick Franklin. Franklin is near Major League ready and could feasibly slide right into second base, thus filling one of the few holes the Royals have on the offensive side.
The other option would be Jesus Montero. Montero has been linked to the Royals in the past, but I don't see any point in rehashing that subject again. Montero is coming off a disappointing year in Seattle, but as Royals fans we know how it goes with young hitters. The upside is still there and he continues to project as a middle of the order designated hitter, with the capability to spell Salvador Perez on occasion.
On the pitching side of things, the Mariners offer a triumvirate of Minor League hurlers with front end upside: Danny Hultzen, Taijuan Walker, and James Paxton. Personally, I would prefer the three in that order, but I have to admit I am very back and forth between Hultzen and Walker. Hultzen is the closer of the two, but not many pitching prospects can match the upside of Walker.
Finally though, I would like a sweetener, his name is Jason Vargas. Vargas is a nice piece, but only offers one year of team control. His presence could hold down a spot in the rotation, which would allow the other pitcher in the deal some time to develop before making the jump to the Majors. Quite frankly, if it made sense perhaps the Royals add in Bruce Chen to fill Vargas's void in the Seattle staff. Here's how the deal would look:
Franklin or Montero + Hultzen, Walker or Paxton + Vargas for Butler and Chen
Pros: Royals are able to diversify their assets, while potentially acquiring a front end starter. Royals also gain more years of team control. Royals slightly upgrade 2013 rotation. Royals clear around $7.5 million in payroll space.
Cons: In the short run the Royals take a step back. They trade off their most advance hitter and a guy who was the eighth most efficient hitter in baseball in RBI situations.
Closing Thought: I've done a lot of research regarding the expected production of top prospects and my findings mirror those of others in the field. There is about a 50% chance that Franklin or Montero turn into the guy you hope they will be. There is about a 25% chance that whoever you get out of Hultzen, Walker or Paxton will turn into that front of the rotation starter. For a team that believes it is about to turn the corner do you trade a guy that already has developed into an All-Star for these odds? Do you roll the dice?
Baltimore Orioles Thoughts
As far as Baltimore is concerned, the trade discussion pretty well has to start and end with Dylan Bundy. Of course, Bundy is considered by many to be the top prospect in all of baseball and almost as untouchable as players come. But here is the problem, there are only about three players in the entire Baltimore organization that would be worth trading Butler for. The first is Manny Machado, who seems to be entrenched in Baltimore for the foreseeable future. The second is Kevin Gausman, who was just drafted last June and thus can't officially be traded for several months. The third is the aforementioned Bundy.
Obviously, I would love to see Kansas City get their hands on Dylan Bundy. He seems to be as sure fire of an ace as they come. But even he has the odds against him. (Not to mention the hype surrounding him has gotten a bit out of control. I mean seriously, to get him Kansas City should trade Myers + Butler for him? Give me a break.) Much has been said regarding the Royals love of Dylan Bundy entering the 2011 draft and since. Could this finally be their opportunity to acquire him? My gut says "no way". However, if the Orioles offered him for Butler straight up, I would have an incredibly hard time saying no.
Update: According to Bob Dutton, Royals officials view Seattle as a fall back option. This is an interesting choice of words. The implication to me is that the Royals are definitely looking at other options regarding Butler. Although, this could also be taken to me they are a fallback to upgrading the rotation. If this latter is the case, I don't think moving your top hitter should ever the fall back option, that just screams of desperation.
As for Baltimore, Dutton states the Orioles are an even "tougher match." As I outlined in this post, there is zero pieces of interest outside of the aforementioned prospects and I can't imagine Baltimore willing to part with any of the three. Situations like that make deals incredibly hard to navigate.
Showing posts with label Dylan Bundy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Dylan Bundy. Show all posts
Monday, December 3, 2012
Sunday, June 5, 2011
Just a Draft
So the draft is right around the corner and I don't think I am alone in the feeling that this has become one of the best days of the year for Royals fans. This is probably because the Royals have really done well under the current administration which is evidence in their top ranking farm system. Also, even though it is loads of fun picking high in the draft the Royals have also made habit of selecting top talents later in the draft and signing them for big time deals.
I am hoping for more of the same this year and here is how I feel about the players that should be available. I will begin by stating that the Royals have finally gotten a break in their draft position. There is a clear top 6 available so the Royals should have an option when they select at number 5. If the Royals select any of the top six players I will be thrilled and extremely happy with the pick. However, if the Royals decide to reach beyond the consensus at the spot I can't help but be skeptical.
This is not to say that I feel like I know more about these prospects than the organization does, but when people agree so strongly on six players going in the top six it makes me feel as though the Royals could really botch an opportunity should they make a reach pick. So without further ado... (I am going to place the players in my personal preference order, again this is splitting hairs among these prospects.)
1. Gerrit Cole RHP- For a guy to be considered a top pick contender after his freshman year and than become the favorite to be selected first for most of the time in the months leading up to the draft he would be an awesome steal for the Royals at 5. Reports are that his stuff is incredible and I remember him saying last year while at a Royals game that he would love to be a part of this organization. If a rough season allows him to slide to 5, then from a Royals perspective we may have just gotten a steal. I believe the rumors to be true that Gerrit Cole will be selected by Pittsburgh tomorrow night.
2. Dylan Bundy RHP- I love the upside, I love his proximity to the Majors. He could rise as fast as a college pitcher and probably has the highest ceiling of any of the pitchers in the draft. His numbers were absolutely dominate in his senior season at Owasso High School in Oklahoma. He had 158 strikeouts to 5 walks in 71 innings with a 0.20 era. I think Bundy will probably join his brother in Baltimore's organization.
3. Anythony Rendon 3B- I don't think there is much of a chance he falls to number 5, but if he did it would be an extremely interesting situation for the Royals. A year ago he was a clear cut number 1 choice. He has dealt with some injuries, but none of them are expected to hurt him moving forward. He is the best combination of high ceiling and high floor in this draft. If the is there at 5 and the other two guys aren't the Royals should draft him and figure where everyone plays later. I expect him to be draft at 2 by Seattle.
4. Danny Hultzen LHP- I know the Royals have a stable of lefties but right now Lamb is out for the year and Monty and Dwyer are struggling. By drafting Hultzen you could add a pitcher as close to Major League ready as you are going to find in a draft and he could really help to push contention forward to 2012. His ceiling isn't as high as the other players on this list, but his floor might be. If he is available at 5 he would be really hard to pass up. Most say that Hultzen to Arizona is the surest pick in the whole draft.
5. Bubba Starling CF- This is where it gets difficult. The Royals could continue to build that second wave, which is already starting to look impressive or they could add the sixth guy on my list who seems to fit what they want. My thoughts on Bubba are basically summed up here: How often does a team get the opportunity to draft the player with the highest upside and most hype at number 5 overall. This is a truly special draft.
6. Trevor Bauer- Bauer is a long toss guy and an innings eating machine even though he is only 20 years old. He could be ready for the majors as fast as Hultzen and he could be an ace in the Lincecum type mold when he gets there. If the Royals are scared about is arm and aren't comfortable with his training methods then Starling should be the choice. But if they are confident that Bauer is just a unique kid and can handle the work and will be able to going forward then Bauer seems like the most logical choice in the 5 spot.
Tomorrow night there will be several things at play when the Royals select. Obviously how will the first 4 picks have gone? Will they be able to nab one of the guys most predict as going in that first 4 range? But if it comes down to Starling vs Bauer? Will they go with the local kid? Will they take a step back from their stance on long tossing? Will they add to the first wave? Will they work on the second? Or will they draft for need and comfort and make a reach pick? Either way this is a truly special draft and I can't wait to watch it unfold.
I am hoping for more of the same this year and here is how I feel about the players that should be available. I will begin by stating that the Royals have finally gotten a break in their draft position. There is a clear top 6 available so the Royals should have an option when they select at number 5. If the Royals select any of the top six players I will be thrilled and extremely happy with the pick. However, if the Royals decide to reach beyond the consensus at the spot I can't help but be skeptical.
This is not to say that I feel like I know more about these prospects than the organization does, but when people agree so strongly on six players going in the top six it makes me feel as though the Royals could really botch an opportunity should they make a reach pick. So without further ado... (I am going to place the players in my personal preference order, again this is splitting hairs among these prospects.)
1. Gerrit Cole RHP- For a guy to be considered a top pick contender after his freshman year and than become the favorite to be selected first for most of the time in the months leading up to the draft he would be an awesome steal for the Royals at 5. Reports are that his stuff is incredible and I remember him saying last year while at a Royals game that he would love to be a part of this organization. If a rough season allows him to slide to 5, then from a Royals perspective we may have just gotten a steal. I believe the rumors to be true that Gerrit Cole will be selected by Pittsburgh tomorrow night.
2. Dylan Bundy RHP- I love the upside, I love his proximity to the Majors. He could rise as fast as a college pitcher and probably has the highest ceiling of any of the pitchers in the draft. His numbers were absolutely dominate in his senior season at Owasso High School in Oklahoma. He had 158 strikeouts to 5 walks in 71 innings with a 0.20 era. I think Bundy will probably join his brother in Baltimore's organization.
3. Anythony Rendon 3B- I don't think there is much of a chance he falls to number 5, but if he did it would be an extremely interesting situation for the Royals. A year ago he was a clear cut number 1 choice. He has dealt with some injuries, but none of them are expected to hurt him moving forward. He is the best combination of high ceiling and high floor in this draft. If the is there at 5 and the other two guys aren't the Royals should draft him and figure where everyone plays later. I expect him to be draft at 2 by Seattle.
4. Danny Hultzen LHP- I know the Royals have a stable of lefties but right now Lamb is out for the year and Monty and Dwyer are struggling. By drafting Hultzen you could add a pitcher as close to Major League ready as you are going to find in a draft and he could really help to push contention forward to 2012. His ceiling isn't as high as the other players on this list, but his floor might be. If he is available at 5 he would be really hard to pass up. Most say that Hultzen to Arizona is the surest pick in the whole draft.
5. Bubba Starling CF- This is where it gets difficult. The Royals could continue to build that second wave, which is already starting to look impressive or they could add the sixth guy on my list who seems to fit what they want. My thoughts on Bubba are basically summed up here: How often does a team get the opportunity to draft the player with the highest upside and most hype at number 5 overall. This is a truly special draft.
6. Trevor Bauer- Bauer is a long toss guy and an innings eating machine even though he is only 20 years old. He could be ready for the majors as fast as Hultzen and he could be an ace in the Lincecum type mold when he gets there. If the Royals are scared about is arm and aren't comfortable with his training methods then Starling should be the choice. But if they are confident that Bauer is just a unique kid and can handle the work and will be able to going forward then Bauer seems like the most logical choice in the 5 spot.
Tomorrow night there will be several things at play when the Royals select. Obviously how will the first 4 picks have gone? Will they be able to nab one of the guys most predict as going in that first 4 range? But if it comes down to Starling vs Bauer? Will they go with the local kid? Will they take a step back from their stance on long tossing? Will they add to the first wave? Will they work on the second? Or will they draft for need and comfort and make a reach pick? Either way this is a truly special draft and I can't wait to watch it unfold.
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