Greg Holland Extension Comparables

Dayton Moore's undefeated streak is in jeopardy. He has never went to arbitration, but at this points there is a growing belief that he could head down that path with Greg Holland, following the closer's fantastic 2013 campaign which saw him record 47 saves, 3.2 fWAR, a 1.21 ERA, and 103 strikeouts in 67 innings.

What we know is that the Royals have offered $4.1 million and Holland's camp has countered at $5.2 million. However, given Moore's arbitration track record, as well as his history of signing players to extensions, I can't help but wonder if the true hold up is that the sides are attempting to tie up the loose ends of a long term contract.

Here's what Holland had to say about the possibility:

"Would everyone in that room like to be here for a long time for their whole career? Yeah. Is that going to happen? Probably not."

 I'm sure Holland would be willing to sign a deal to stay in Kansas City, but that will depend on the size of the contract. So what might it take to keep Holland in Kansas City? Let's take a look at a couple of pretty good comparables, both of which were at similar points in regards to their service time clocks.

Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2014/02/06/4803204/greg-holland-could-be-first-royal.html#storylink=cpy

Prior to signing his extension after the 2008 season, Joakim Soria had posted a 2.05 ERA over 136.1 professional innings. During that time he had compiled 59 saves with a strikeout to walk ratio of 141 to 38. The deal that Soria signed was to pay out $1 million in year one, $3 million in year two, $4 in year three, then team options for years four through six at $6 million, $8 million, and $8.75 million.

Roughly three years later, Sergio Santos signed a remarkably similar deal. In his first two seasons, Santos threw 115 innings for the Chicago White Sox and recorded a 3.29 ERA, 31 saves, and a 148 to 55 strikeout to walk ratio. That deal was to pay Santos $1 million in the first year, $2.75 million in the second, and $3.75 in the third. The deal then offered three consecutive team options for $6 million, $8 million, and $8.75 million a piece.

Greg Holland has pitched in quite a bit more innings than either of the previously mentioned pitchers. At this point he has thrown 212.2 innings with a 2.41 ERA, 67 saves, and 291 strikeouts to 79 walks. Performance wise, he is a better pitcher at a similar stage he is a better pitcher than Santos, but a slightly behind Soria. Of course, the Royals will also have to pay extra for the longer track record that Holland provides in comparison to the aforementioned closers.

Obviously, Holland isn't going to sign for a deal that only pays him $1 million in 2014. However, I could see a deal that is similar to the above but guarantees more and buys out a little less control. I might venture a guess like $4 million for 2014, $6 million for 2015, $8 million for 2016, $8.75 team option for 2017, and a $9.5 million team option for 2018.

This type of deal would provide cost certainty for the Royals, while also allowing them the option of controlling Holland for a couple of extra seasons. For Holland he would be guaranteed $18 million over the next three seasons, an excellent haul for a first time arbitration eligible reliever.

What do you guys think? Are you comfortable committing that sort of coin to a reliever?

If you are of the opinion that the Royals should try and sell high on Holland, keep in mind that this sort of deal wouldn't prohibit that. Then the question would become, if Holland signed this extension would he be a more attractive asset? I have to think that many teams would consider these terms a bargain.

What do you think Royals nation?

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Top Defense in Baseball

In last Wednesday's post for MLB.com ranking the top defenses in baseball, Anthony Castrovince anointed the Royals as being better than any other. (If you want to see the rest of the rankings click here. Castrovince points to the Royals not having any defensive liability on the diamond and premium defenders at Catcher, Short Stop, and Left Field. Incredibly, Castrovince didn't even make mention of 2013 Gold Glove winner Eric Hosmer, or stud Lorenzo Cain.

Castrovince is right, the Royals are absolute studs on the defensive side of the game. They figure to be even stronger in 2014 with the additions of Omar Infante at second and Norichika Aoki at right field. It is this defensive prowess that gives me comfort at the loss of Ervin Santana. While the Royals rotation isn't as sexy on paper entering without Santana, I believe that an enormous amount of the 2013 run prevention success should be credited to the defense.

While many projections are calling for the Royals to regress in the win column in 2014, due to regression to the mean of their defensive metrics. I would argue that while the metrics of the Royals defense could regress, the actual performance of defense is something less likely to regress than offensive performance. Whether or not the numbers reflect regression, the 2014 Royals aren't going to go from being a dynamite defensive team to a mediocre defensive team.

The Royals ranked very high in WAR numbers in 2013, perhaps this is because defensive metrics somewhat overvalued the Royals defense. A regression in defensive metrics would mean a regression in WAR totals for players, but the point needs to be made that a regression in a metric statistic does not necessarily equal regression in actual performance. The Royals defensive metrics could be a little worse in 2014 than they were in 2013, but in actuality the defense could be playing just as good or better.

Personally, I don't envision the defense regressing in actuality and so I'm not worried about projections that are calling for a regression in defensive numbers. All statistics have variability, but unlike hitting, there is much less randomness involved in fielding a baseball. For this reason, I would expect projection systems to underrate the Royals this offseason.

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Different Energy

If you haven't read Wednesday's Kansas City Star article in which Pete Grathoff discusses last season with Eric Hosmer, do yourself a favor and click here. Here's the quote from Hosmer that really caught my eye in the article:

"We like playing the Tigers. We really do enjoy playing the Tigers. Every time they come to town or we go there, it's a different energy when we play them, and it has to be. They've won the division the last couple of years. They're the ones we've got to set out to get. I think that's the good thing of having such a young team, everyone is really hungry and they welcome the challenge."

I'm glad to see that the Royals former first round pick knows who the team is gunning for this season. What the team needs to do though is not have let downs against teams that aren't top teams in the league. Here's a breakdown of how the Royals played against teams based on their division finish:

• vs Division Winners: 19-21, .475 winning percentage
• vs 2nd Place: 19-16, .543 winning percentage
• vs 3rd Place: 6-11, .353 winning percentage
• vs 4th Place: 25-11, .694 winning percentage (15-4 against the Twins)
• vs 5th Place: 17-17, .500 winning percentage

In 2014, the Royals were merely a .500 team against last place teams. It is great that the team brings an extra level of energy whenever they are playing the top teams in the league, but good teams take care of business all season long. Good teams don't play to their competition, young teams do. It's time for the Royals to transition from being the young team to a good team.

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Read more here: http://www.kansascity.com/2014/02/05/4801312/this-year-eric-hosmer-wants-royals.html#storylink=cpy

Covering Ground

"The Royals outfield defense did experience an improvement during the 2013 season. Their sharp fly balls (balls in the air between 2.5 and 4 seconds) Out% in 2012 was 46%. Over the first two months of the 2013 season it was similar with a 47.4% value. Then strong-armed, but slow-footed Jeff Francoeur was released in the middle of June. From July on, the Royals sharp fly ball value jumped to 52.7%." - Royal Review (Article can be read here.)

I don't think it was any coincidence that while Francoeur was on the roster, the Royals were 37-41 and following his release, the Royals went 49-35 the rest of the way. Last offseason, the Royals brought in fly ball pitchers. A strategy that makes sense given the spaciousness of the outfield at Kauffman Stadium. However, this is only half the equation. Without a sterling defense to chase down those balls, the combination of a spacious outfield and a subpar outfield defense is a death sentence.

This is a huge reason for why I am so excited about the addition of Norichika Aoki, who like Alex Gordon, Lorenzo Cain, and Jarrod Dyson, can cover some ground in the outfield. Entering the offseason, I was afraid that in the Royals perpetual quest for power, they would discount this particular advantage and bring in another slow-footed bopper to play right field.

One of the beauties of baseball is that every team plays their home games in a unique park. Obviously, some parks are more haphazard than others, but teams that can take advantage of their home parks can also reap the benefits. By taking this route,  I hope that the Royals have finally come to the realization of the type of team it takes to win at Kauffman Stadium. I also hope that not only can the Royals continue to take advantage of this factor, but that they can expand upon it in 2014.

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Gordon Adjusts Approach for Heart of Order

Yesterday, our friend Jeffrey Flanagan with Fox Sports, brought us this article regarding Alex Gordon's shift in Ned Yost's proposed 2014 batting order. Here's the quote from Gordon regarding the drop in the lineup.

"Every spot is a little different. My approach will be a little different (hitting down in the order). I was always trying to get on base (before), trying to make something happen. I tried to let guys see pitches. Hitting later in the order, I'm still going to try to see pitches, but my job is to drive guys in and maybe hit with more power. I've hit there before and hopefully, I won't forget how."

 For those of us that have watched Gordon the past few years, I don't think we want to see him change  much of his approach just because a shift in his spot in the order. In fact, I think most of us are at least somewhat fearful that such a change in approach will occur and as a result Gordon's production might decline.

I also can't help but remembering some of the blasts that left Gordon's bat over his first two professional seasons. (I'm thinking specifically of the 440 foot home run he blasted off the fountain advertising against the Cardinals. Wow.)

What I'm hoping is that Gordon can take his approach from his days in the leadoff spot and apply that to counts in which he has two strikes. If Gordon can somehow nurture that pull power that he showed off early in his career, while also hit for the average that he showed in 2011 & 2012, he'll be a beast in 2014.

Personally, I think Gordon would be a perfect fit for the two spot. Analytics have taught us that when it comes to lineup construction we've got it all wrong. In the 2nd hitter we should be putting our top hitters, whose primary out outcomes are strikeouts. What better fit would there be than Alex Gordon for the Royals, not to mention that over 81 plate appearances last season the Nebraska product embraced this spot hitting .338/.420/.549. This compares favorably to the leadoff spot (.285/.358/.466) or the fifth spot (.264/.338/.398).

Truly, if the Royals want a run producer in the middle of the order, it should be stressed to Gordon that the team doesn't want him to change his approach. It is the change in approach that has gotten Gordon in trouble in the past. Hopefully, someone will point this out to the Gold Glove left fielder and he can rake in the heart of the order for the 2014 Royals.

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