Prospect Countdown: #30 Aaron Brooks

30. Aaron Brooks Right Handed Pitcher

aeryssports.com

Age: 23
Height: 6'4" 
Weight: 220
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted by the Kansas City Royals in the 9th round of the 2011 Amateur Draft

Landon Adams (NR): I was a little surprised to see Aaron Brooks make this countdown and thanks to Twitterless Joe's ranking, Brooks has cracked the top 30. Joe will point out that Brooks does a decent job in soliciting ground balls. While it is true, I don't believe that this talent is strong enough to to overcome his inability to miss bats. Poor strikeout rates in the minor leagues typically translate to impassable strikeout rates at the Major League level. The best case for Brooks is that he can continue to limit walks and get ground balls, if he can do that perhaps he can carve out a career as a ground ball specialist middle reliever.

Paden Bennett (NR): Not a huge fan of Brooks; so far in his career he has been consistently in the ERA range of 4+.  He does through strikes and gets a fair amount of ground balls but I just don't see much upside from Brooks.  Look for him to be in Northwest Arkansas and post an ERA of around 4.

Joe Cox (20):   I am the only person to rank Brooks, but I am glad I did.  I am a sucker for strike throwing ground ballers who can throw hard.  Brooks is exactly that, his fastball tops out at 94-95, and he also has a 2-seamer to go along with his off-speed pitches.  Brooks is a guy who will tell you his philosophy is to go out to throw strikes and rely on groundballs to get out of trouble.  How has it gone?  Well, we have seen mixed success at this point.  

2013 was Brooks third year in professional ball, and he spent it between A+ and AA, throwing a cumulative 160 innings.  Looking at his 16 starts in AA we see good and bad.  The good: 11 walks in 103.2 innings, less than one per nine innings.  The bad: more home runs, 13, than walks.  One thing I do like to see his significant drop in hits per nine, lowering his whip significantly from 2012.  

We did see a decrease in strike outs, and that may never be a strong point, but if he can continue to keep his velocity up he just needs to find an out pitch, similar to what folks are saying about another ground baller in the majors currently, Joe Kelly.  Brooks’ has had a much better FIP than ERA at each level; in part because of a BABIP over .300 each season and poor LOB% each season.  As an Aaron Brooks optimist, I look at what another no walks pitcher did at age 23, Doug Fister, and see room for growth from the 6-4 righty. 

Dan Ware (NR): Like reliever Michael Mariot, Aaron Brooks has been a model of consistency.  Unfortunately, his ERA has been consistently above 4, which isn't exactly what you want to see.  Although his ERA was at it's lowest since the 2011 season, at 4.17, Brooks can give you innings, as he averaged 6.1 IP per start for Wilmington and Northwest Arkansas, so that's easily a plus.  Aaron will likely start the 2014 season with Northwest Arkansas.   

Total Points: 11

2014 Prospect Countdown: #31 Daniel Stumpf

31. Daniel Stumpf Left Handed Pitcher

www.milb.com

Age: 22
Position: LHP
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 200
B/T: L/L
Acquired: Drafted in the 9th Round of 2012 Amateur Draft
From: Humble, Texas

Landon Adams (NR): Daniel Stumpf features good size and throws from the left side of the mound. He has a strong Minor League track recored boasting a career 2.81 ERA and 3.61 SIERA over 166.2 innings. Given his handedness and size, Stumpf intrigues me as a possible fast rising bullpen piece. After all, this is the sort of profile that often gets slotted as a future lefty specialist. 

I was somewhat surprised to discover that throughout his brief Minor League career, the former 9th round selection has been just as baffling to left handed hitters (.596 OPS against) as right handed (.592). Perhaps Stumpf can continue to progress while developing a decent third offering. If this can happen he could have a shot as a back end starter. Otherwise he might have the ability to scrap out a career in a Major League bullpen. A guy like Stumpf could serve as an enticing enough "throw in" piece in a deal at the deadline in 2014.

Paden Bennett (NR): Stumpf is a hard throwing lefty with some good stuff.  As evidenced by Stumpf throwing a complete game no hitter last season against the Greenville Drive.  I expect Stumpf to have a good spring and start the season with Wilmington and have a solid season if he can continue to locate his fastball and fine tune his breaking ball so that he can use it as an out pitch.

Joe Cox (21): Lefty Stumpf spent his first full season of professional ball in A league Lexington, fairing pretty well.  In his age 22 season, Stumpf compiled 137.2 innings over 25 starts.  He had respectable walk and strikeout numbers (3.27 BB/9, 7.65 SO/9) and had an impressive 1.11 WHIP while being able to limit the long ball.  Looking at his peripheral numbers, he may have been a little lucky with batted balls and LOB%, but he still had a fine 3.69 FIP to go along with an ERA of 3.07.  

Being that he is a strong armed lefty with good size, there is a lot to like about the potential of Stumpf, despite the fact that he still needs to work on adding a more consistent breaking ball to the mix.  I like Stumpf as a guy who could rise through the system and make a major league impact as a lefty specialist, if not a back end starter.  It will be interesting to see what the Royals plan is with Stumpf, but I would like to see what he could do as a starter at the next level in 2014. 

Dan Ware (NR): Another kid with a great first name, Stumpf put on an excellent display for the Legends, mixing in a little fun and history making, to top it off.  Daniel was part of a stellar rotation in Lexington, which included Crawford Simmons, Christian Binford, and Future's Game participant Miguel Almonte.  With a 10-10 record, 3.07 ERA, 137.2 IP in 25 starts, 117 K and 50 BB, and 3rd best WHIP at 1.11, the 22 year old was named 2013 SAL Left Handed Pitcher of the Year. There's more to this kid? Ohhh yeah.  

On July 2nd, the same night Cincinnati Reds pitcher Homer Bailey tossed a No-Hitter, Stumpf threw a complete-game no-no against the Greenville Drive, only the second time it's happened in Lexington's history. If Daniel gets good conditioning in this winter and has a solid spring, he should open up the 2014 campaign in Wilmington's rotation.  The Carolina League is considered pitcher-friendly, so hopefully the young lefty uses it to his advantage.

Total Points: 10

Prospect Countdown: #32 Justin Trapp

32. Justin Trapp Second Baseman

aeryssports.com

Age: 23
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 165
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted by the Kansas City Royals in the 34th round of the 2009 Amateur Draft

2013 Rank: 30

2012 Rank: 46

2011 Rank: 56

Landon Adams (24): A former Division 1 quarterback recruit, Justin Trapp boasts plenty of athleticism. The former 34th round pick utilizes this athleticism in a variety of ways. Trapp has hit double digit home runs in back to back seasons while stealing 49 bases over the same time frame. In early June I was told by a Royals source that Trapp was close to a promotion to Northwest Arkansas after posting a .838 OPS in April and .811in May. Unfortunately, Trapp was on course to fall off a cliff in June when he struck out 18 times in 21 games and hit just .268/.307/.329. The slump continued throughout July, before Trapp rebounded a bit in August by hitting .257/.322/.410. Trapp is likely ticketed for a return to Wilmington in 2014.

Paden Bennett (29): I really like this Trapp kid.  He is a toolsy player with speed, a good eye (9% walk rate), and a little bit of pop as well with 10+ homers his last two seasons.  At 23 years old, Trapp has some time to really improve on his prospect status and that starts this season.  I think Trapp takes another step forward this season and you see him in Northwest Arkansas at some point.

Joe Cox (NR): I am a fan of any MI prospect with any amount of upside, and Trapp fits that profile.  The athletic 2B prospect spent his age 22 season in high A and posted a respectable .341 wOBA, which included 10 homers and 25 stolen bases.  He showed the ability to walk with a 9% BB rate (and 12 HBP) and a respectable 20.8% K rate, which is generally right in line with his career numbers.  Really, Trapp has consistently put up very similar numbers every year since 2010, moving up a level each season.  I consider that a good sign, and we will see if he can keep that consistency going, or even improve upon it, in 2014 when he will presumably move up to AA.

Dan Ware (30): Trapp entered 2013 coming off a career year with Kane County.  Entering the pitcher-friendly confines of the Carolina League, Justin's slash line went down in all 3 categories to .257/.340/.390.  He still managed to put up 10 HR for the second straight year, adding 47 RBI and 30 XBH, 5 of which were triples.  On the base paths, he added 25 steals for Wilmington and continues to show off his athleticism.  He's still considered a decent prospect, while being just 23 years old still helps him out.  Trapp could start off in Wilmington in 2014, get a few AB's, then head west to join the Naturals if he starts off strong.  

Total Points: 10

Royals Trade Lough for Valencia

In another sneaky SABR move by the Royals front office David Lough was sent to the Inner Harbor for right hand hitting, OBP deprived Danny Valencia. It didn't take the Royals Twitterverse more than an infield pop up's worth of time to realize that Valencia hits left handers at a decent clip and would be an ideal platoon partner to incumbent third baseman, Mike Moustakas.

But then...

#Royals' Dayton Moore also tells me Valencia won't platoon with Moose: “But that’s not to say Ned won’t match up in certain situations.”
— Jeffrey Flanagan (@jflanagankc) December 18, 2013

So the plot thickens.

Actually, it was extremely predictable that Dayton Moore would hesitate to label this as a platoon. There are too many factors at play. The most important of which being that Kansas City doesn't want to officially label Mike Moustakas as a platoon player. Ideally, Moustakas hits in 2014 like the prospect experts all expected him to. Yes, he has been terribly disappointing thus far in his Major League career, but there are still well respected people in the industry that expect much bigger things from Moustakas moving forward.

Nonetheless, if the Royals find themselves in a platoon situation in 2014, they could have done much worse than Danny Valencia. In 428 career plate appearances versus left handed pitching, the former 19th round selection has hit .329/.367/.513 against southpaws. Last year alone he torched lefties to the tune of a .371/.392/.639 line.

Individually, here are The Spitter's projections for Mike Moustakas and Danny Valencia for 2014 (adjusted to 600 plate appearances):

• Mike Moustakas: .237/.290/.379 with 15 home runs, a .290 wOBA and a 1.98 WAR.
• Danny Valencia: .261/.290/.445 with 20 home runs, a .312 wOBA and a 1.29 WAR.

Basically, you have a couple of guys with poor contact and even poorer walk rates. Moustakas comes in with a higher WAR thanks to an above average glove, while Valencia is below average at third. Here is what we get if we run it as a platoon between the two players with a 30/70 split in favor of Moustakas.

• .265/.307/.437 with 19 home runs, a .319 wOBA and a 2.90 WAR. 

What we see here is that if the Royals did go with a true platoon from the offset, Danny Valencia would compliment Moustakas extremely well and raise the overall production from third base by about a win.Of course, if Mosutakas does prove that he is more than a platoon player, your problem is solved anyway. If implemented correctly, this is the kind of sly move that an organization can make to grab an extra win. 

Now as for where Valencia fits into the roster puzzle. Valencia is out of options (reason why he appears to be more than a Brandon Wood, worst case scenario back up plan to Moustakas). The way the current bench sets up is backup catcher, Emilio Bonifacio, Justin Maxwell, and Jarrod Dyson. This would give the Royals 13 hitters on their active roster. 

The wise thing for the Royals to do would be to carry 14 hitters. The rotation is full of innings eaters (except for the 5 spot which figures to be occupied by either Yordano Ventura or Danny Duffy). There are also enough arms in Omaha to enable a sort of shuttle system that can stretch the bullpen deeper than a typical 6 man pen can. Dayton Moore has displayed the creativity to successfully utilize a psuedo shuttle system in the past and I believe he can do it again.

By carrying 11 pitchers instead of 14, it would enable the Royals to truly platoon Moustakas and Valencia, while also keeping a balanced bench with a nice array of skills. Maxwell could pinch hit against lefties. Dyson and Bonifacio can both run. Maxwell can hit for power. Dyson can get on base. Between Dyson and Bonifacio you have every spot on the diamond covered in case of injury or the need of a defensive replacement. 

I'm disappointed with the Royals decision to DFA George Kottaras. I still think it could wind up costing them a win. However, I think they have positioned themselves well to have a very nice bench in 2014. What is more likely to happen is that Kansas City will opt to go with the 12 man staff that they have had through a majority of the Dayton Moore era. If I had to guess, this would be it for Jarrod Dyson. 

As for David Lough, he will always be a personal favorite of mine. He is an extremely personable individual and always has a smile on his face. His rookie season was fantastic to watch and he played an enormous role in the Royals second half resurgence. I wish him all the best and I'm looking forward to watching him in an Oriole jersey next season. #YoLough.

Thoughts on the Omar Infante deal

Last Friday, Omar Infante and the Kansas City Royals agreed to a four year, $30 million contract.  Omar Infante will be plugged into second base in 2014, moving Emilio Bonifacio into a utility role and moving Johnny Giavotella and Christian Colon to depth pieces who could move from AAA to the majors throughout the year depending on injuries/ needs.  I already went over in a previous post that I felt the Royals were best suited using free agency or trade to find a starting second baseman in 2014, as opposed to working from within the organization. 

I also stated in said post that I felt Omar Infante was going to be too pricy for the Royals, as the Yankees seemed to be a perfect fit after losing Robinson Cano to Seattle.  In fact, at that time is looked much more likely we would be seeing Beltran with the Royals and Infante in New York, not the reserve.  And boy it looks like things may have worked out for the Royals.  Carlos Beltran costs $15 million more for one less year of team control, while also costing the Yankees a draft pick in next year’s amateur draft, something that was not tied to signing Infante since he did not receive a qualifying offer from the Tigers.  

A comparable player to Omar Infante is Brandon Phillips, who still has 4 yrs/ $50 million dollars left on his contract that the Reds would happily get rid of.  When I say comparable, I mean they are within six months in age (with Infante being the younger 32 year old entering next year) while posting comparable fWAR over the last two years. 

That being said, Phillips has been worth almost twice as much fWAR over the course of his career, but I agree with the idea that it is unwise to evaluate players based on their peak, and instead based on present projections.  Phillips clearly has peaked and has been regressing each of the past two seasons after a very good 2011, and is still an elite defender.  Infante is on the wrong side of the aging curve, but had arguably his best season of his career in 2013.  Both are projected to earn about 2.5 WAR next season, as projection systems will (and should) expect regression moving forward. 

So if we agree that these two are more or less similarly useful players, then it is not hard to argue that Infante at 4/30 is a nice deal relative to a ‘bad’ contract.  But how should we evaluate the Infante deal in and of itself?  I will take very loose math that Fangraphs will sometimes use to quickly look at a player’s contract based on value of win and expected regression.  In this model they value a win in the present market to be worth roughly $6.5mil/WAR, with a player regressing .5 WAR per year. 

2014: 2.5 WAR

2015: 2.0 WAR

2016: 1.5 WAR

2017: 1.0 WAR

Total: 7.0 WAR

7 WAR is ‘worth’ 45 million dollars, so by this thought process the Royals may have gotten Infante at quite a bargain.  Even towards the end of his contract he could be above replacement level, and won’t be worth so much money that even in a Bonifacio like role in 2017 he could easily continue to provide value relative to his contract. 

Also this whole piece is heavily reliant on the use of WAR, which, like all Sabremetic statistics, is flawed in telling the entire story.  I do believe it is a helpful tool to use when evaluating contracts, however, and does help paint the picture of a player’s value. 

With Infante and Aoki in the fold for the Royals they have added two contact hitters with a little pop and a little speed (a little more from Aoki).  These players go right along with the low strikeout strategy that seems to be implemented within the team, as Hosmer, Butler, Escobar, Perez and even Moustakas (not counting all his pop ups) make decent contact for their positions.  The same can be said about the team’s clear strategy to field one of the best defenses in the league, thus utilizing their big ballpark, and help with a weak rotation.

In my post I referred to earlier, I concluded that by arguing the best alternative for the Royals was to sign Mark Ellis, who recently signed a one year deal with the St. Louis Cardinals.  While Ellis could have had more playing time elsewhere, it would not surprise me if Ellis wanted to go to St. Louis all along in a platoon type role for a team that made the World Series last year, so this may not have ever been an option anyways. 

I still would rather have Ellis as a stop gap for one year in theory, but the contract that Infante received was far less than expected and I would consider myself a big fan of the signing.  The 2014 Royals are being built to contend, and now the biggest hole on the offensive side is filled, making rotation depth the next step in improving the team’s chances for a playoff run.