Prospect Countdown: #2 Bubba Starling

#2 Bubba Starling


Age: 19
Height: 6-4
Weight: 185
B/T: R/R
Acquired: Drafted 5th Overall in the 2011 Amateur Draft
From: Gardner, KS

Heading into the draft all of the talk seemed to point to Kansas City targeting one of the four advanced pitchers projected at the top of the draft. Perhaps, it was always a cover for their true love of local standout Bubba Starling, but because the Mariners shocked everyone and chose Danny Hultzen over Anthony Rendon we will never know. In the end, I believe the Royals got the guy they always truly wanted.

In high school, Bubba Starling was a superstar. He lived 30 miles from Kauffman Stadium. He averaged 28 points per game on the basketball court and he was the quarterback of the future at Nebraska University. Thanks to the latter, Bubba Starling had leverage that most draft picks don't. As a result, Starling's agent was able to negotiate a franchise record, $7.5 million bonus.

Starling's physical tools are incredible. He has as high an upside as any prospect in baseball. His power projects as plus-plus. He has shown the ability to make adjustments, leading some scouts to believe that he'll hit for both average and draw his fair share of walks. He has incredible speed that will make him a threat on the bases and a Gold Glove caliber defender in center field. He was clocked at 95 mph, and has an arm that could play in right should the need arise.

Of course, the doubters would point to several things as well. First and foremost, Starling isn't the most advanced high school hitter. As a three-sport star and growing up in an area that isn't exactly considered a prospect hot bed, Starling hasn't logged the at bats that fellow high school hitters have. Of course, for that same reason Mike Trout fell to the 25th pick in the 2009 Draft. Hopefully, Starling proves a similar story as the fellow five tool prospect.

Starling will open the season in extended Spring Training. He represents the crown jewel of the latest wave of talent that the Royals are developing. A slow approach with Starling could result in huge rewards, and given the current state of the franchise there isn't a reason to rush Bubba. Starling will likely receive his first assignment to Kane County when the weather warms, but it is also possible that the Royals elect to send him to a rookie league for 2012.

Picture taken from NYPost.com

Prospect Countdown: #3 Mike Montgomery

#3 Mike Montgomery


Age: 22
Position: LHP
Height: 6-4
Weight: 200
Acquired: Drafted by the Royals in the 1st Round of the 2008 Amateur Draft
From: Valencia, CA




Thanks to a strong resume, excellent scouting reports, and a stud Spring in 2011, I rated Mike Montgomery as the top prospect on my rankings. However, after a brutal 2012 campaign some are starting to question the lanky left hander.

Montgomery, who now famously was kicked off the high school team for too many technicals, has been called a bulldog on the mound. He has been praised for his ability to come inside, and his fearlessness on the rubber. In 2012, the Royals wanted Montgomery to focus on his change and moving up and down in the zone as opposed to side to side. Montgomery struggled throughout the summer, posting an ERA 6 in his final 22 starts.

The Royals have looked at the bright side of his rough 2011. They point to a curveball that now grades a full grade higher. But perhaps Montgomery's 2011 wasn't quite as dreadful as it looks on the surface. For a moment consider this comparison (I have taken the player's statistic and subtracted the league average mark):

FIP

Player 1: -0.20

Player 2: -0.26

SIERA

Player 1: -0.22

Player 2: -0.28

K/9

Player 1: +0.69

Player 2: +0.39

BB/9:

Player 1: +0.32

Player 2: +0.22

HR/9

Player 1: -0.15

Player 2: -0.27

Groundball %

Player 1: +5.4

Player 2: +8.3

Player 1 in this comparison is of course Mike Montgomery. Player 2 is Oakland A's starter Jarrod Parker. Parker's season  was considered an excellent year by most helping to solidify his status as one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. Montgomery's season was considered a huge disappointment.

There are a couple of things I want you to notice in this crude comparison. First, Mike Montgomery and Jarrod Parker had very similar seasons in comparison to their league's average in terms of peripheral performance. (Basically this is an attempt to adjust for the league average and compare numbers between players at different levels.) The second thing I want you to notice is that both out performed the league average marks in each of these statistics.

Finally, I want to add one more point. Jarrod Parker's results came in Double-A, while Montgomery's came in Triple-A. Throw in that Montgomery is about half a year younger than Parker, and you start to wonder if Montgomery's season was quite as disappointing as it appears after a cursory glance.

I'm sure that Montgomery was more frustrated with his 2011 performance than anybody. Not to mention that there were rumblings of a conflict in pitching ideology. Hopefully, with a new minor league pitching instructor in place a common ground can be reached to allow Montgomery's stuff to find consistency. 

As for the stuff it is still there. Monty can blow it past hitters with low 90s heat that can touch 96. Or Monty can have hitters swinging at nothingness with his plus change up. The curveball is still a work in progress, but at the moment he is throwing a traditional version that comes to the plate in the mid 70s. 

I remain optimistic when it comes to Mike Montgomery, but there is no doubt 2012 is a big year for him. With that being said, he should find his way to Kansas City at some point this summer. I can't wait until he gets going and as of now it is less than twenty-four hours away as he'll serve as the Opening Day starter for the Omaha Storm Chasers. 

Picture taken from KCRoyals.com.

Prospect Countdown: #4 Jake Odorizzi

#4 Jake Odorizzi


Age: 22
Position: RHP
Height: 6-2
Weight: 185
Acquired: Via trade with Milwaukee
From: Breese, IL




Jake Odorizzi was the 32nd overall draft choice by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 2008 draft. Very early in his career he drew some comparisons to Zack Greinke, due to his high school pitching numbers, his athleticism, and the fact that he may have been a decent prospect as a shortstop as well. Just a couple years later, Odorizzi would find himself heading to Kansas City in a trade that would send Zack Greinke to Milwaukee.

The debate can be made about which pieces in the trade were the most critical for the Royals to obtain. Most likely Jeffries was the fourth piece, considering he was originally listed as a player to be named. However, at this point it would appear that the real gem of the deal is Jake Odorizzi, who has ranked in Baseball America's top 100 in each of the last two seasons.

Odorizzi features an excellent fastball that sits in the low 90s, but can be dialed up to 95-96 when the need arises. The fastball features strong movement, with sinking action. Odorizzi also throws a change, slider, and curveball, each of which project as average offerings. Because none of his secondary offering will likely develop into a plus pitch, Odorizzi's upside is likely that of a #3. If things break right though, and one pitch comes along more than expected, that upside could rise to a #2.

At the moment Odorizzi's biggest concern is his propensity to allow the long ball. In Northwest Arkansas, Odorizzi allowed 1.7 HR/9. Just for reference, the Texas League average was 0.94 HR/9. According to Baseball America, Odorizzi's problem is that he has trouble locating his fastball down in the zone, this is something that must be improved on before he gets a big league shot.

Not only does Odorizzi allow a ton of homers, but he also gets very few ground balls. His 33% ground ball percentage in 2011, is a bit surprising after reading that Odorizzi's fastball gets good sinking action. If he can't improve his ground ball percentage it will be imperative that he keep his K:BB very high, somewhere over 3, in order for him to find success. Of course, if you are going to be a fly ball pitcher, Kauffman Stadium is a good park to call home.

Jake Odorizzi will open 2012 in Northwest Arkansas, but he could reach the Major Leagues by season's end.

Picture taken from MiLB.com

Prospect Countdown: #5 John Lamb

#5 John Lamb


Age: 21
Position: LHP
Height: 6-4
Weight: 200
Acquired: Drafted in the fifth round of the 2008 Amateur Draft
From: La Palma, CA





John Lamb fell into the Royals in the fifth round of the 2008 draft, due to an elbow injury caused by a car accident in his senior year of high school. The Royals happily snatched him up and paid him $165,000 to keep him away from college.

In Lamb's first professional season the Royals started him slow and worked him in short season ball the entire year. The following year, the Royals gave Lamb a shot at Low-A Burlington. It didn't take long for Lamb, to become one of the top prospects in baseball. In 2011, Lamb advanced across three levels garnering consideration for Minor League Player of the year prior to his rough finish in the Texas League (even then posting a 2.00 K:BB).

In 2011, many believed that John Lamb would make his Major League debut at some point in the season. However, the injury bug bit John again and he entered the season with a strained oblique. Despite that the Royals elected to not play it safe with Lamb, and instead allow him to gut through the ailment. It is my belief that as a result Lamb overcompensated in some way and caused the injury that ultimately ended his season.

Eventually, Lamb underwent Tommy John surgery. I'd much rather it be an elbow injury than a shoulder. Today Tommy John carries a roughly 90% full recovery rate. Often pitchers actually increase velocity post surgery. Lamb for instance had suffered a severe dip in velocity in 2011. In 2010, Lamb's fastball routinely sat in the low to mid 90s. In 2011, he struggled to hit 90 mph.

But this is why I am so excited about the guy. Throughout 2009 and 2010, Royals prospect aficionados heard all about Lamb's moxie. We heard time and time again that the guy possessed poise beyond his year's and just knew how to pitch. What I learned in 2011, was that despite not having his best stuff, Lamb got by on exactly the aforementioned things. He kept the ball down and kept runs off the board.

Baseball America lists John Lamb's upside as that of a #2 or #3 starter. In their definitions of #1 and #2 both posses two plus pitches and an average third pitch. The difference is that an ace has plus-plus command and plus makeup as opposed to being average in both regards. We know Lamb's change is plus, if the velocity returns he'll have a second plus offering. I'm also convinced as ever that he has plus make up. If the command comes around as the Royals predict, his upside is that of a rotation head.

Picture taken from KCRoyals.com.

Prospect Countdown: #6 Cheslor Cuthbert

#6 Cheslor Cuthbert


Age: 19
Position: 3B
Height: 6-1
Weight: 190
B./T: R/R
Acquired: Signed as International Free Agent on July 2, 2009
From: Corn Island, Nicaragua

When Cheslor Cuthbert put his name on the dotted line he set a record for the largest bonus ever given out by the Royals to an International Player. The $1.35 million bonus also became the largest bonus ever handed to a Nicaraguan prospect. Just two seasons into Cuthbert's professional career, early returns are very promising.

Cuthbert possesses such an advanced approach that the Royals pushed him to Kane County as an eighteen year old. For three months it appeared as though, even the pitcher friendly Midwest League was a conservative assignment, that is, until the wheels fell off in August. In the final month of the season Cuthbert hit just .135/.280/.208. As a result we are talking about one of the top prospects in the system as opposed to one of the top prospects in all of baseball.

Scouts attributed the downward spiral to physical fatigue. After all Cuthbert had never played a summer full of organized baseball in his entire life. If Cuthbert can maintain his early season performance for an entire season, he will be a beast at the plate. Cuthbert projects as a plus hitter with plus power. I've heard Adrian Beltre comparisons thrown out there in the past.

Personally, I don't imagine Cuthbert ever being the fielder that Beltre is. Cuthbert is considered to be an above average fielder at present and I have heard that he is excellent making plays while coming in. However, there are concerns that his range is fringy and his thickening low half will eventually force him off third.

Cuthbert is going to open the season as the 3 hitter in an intriguing Wilmington order.

Picture taken from KCCougars.wordpress.com