The Royals could have made the decision to non-tender
Hochevar and cut ties with the former #1 overall pick, but they instead decided
to offer him arbitration. As a result of
the signings to get much needed help to the starting rotation, Hochevar quickly
lost out in an attempt to earn a rotation spot during spring training and will
now start the year as a long reliever/ swing man type player for the Royals. This role will give him some starts
throughout the year it is going to limit the amount of innings he will give the
club compared to the 198 in 2011 and 185 over 32 starts last season.
Since 2008, Hochevar has been between 1.5 and 2.5 WAR while
always throwing more than 100 innings during the season. I think best case scenario sees Hochevar
playing a role similar to that of Carlos Villanueva for the Blue Jays over the
past two seasons. This would mean giving
Hochevar roughly 35 appearances including 10-12 starts and around 110-120 innings. I think this is a realistic, yet optimistic,
projection. Hochevar managed a 1.5 WAR last season due largely in quantity of
innings rather than quality of performance, so it is realistic to see Hochevar’s
WAR dip under 1.0 if he does not become a better pitcher than he was last
year.
Becoming a reliever typically helps pitchers become more
effective, as they are able to throw harder, see hitters only once, and the
manager is better able to put pitchers in situations in which they can
succeed. While most projection systems
gave an output based on Hochevar, it is fair to think that Hochevar will stabilize
the huge number of home runs he gave up last season but it is hard to say if we
will see a rise in strike outs or a dip WHIP, which are necessary if he is
going to be effective in any role. If we
see a drop in ERA and FIP to about 4.50, which I think is realistic, the Royals
have a player in Hochevar worth about 1-1.5 WAR, or basically just earning his
salary but providing little extra output.
Jeff Francoeur had a forgettable 2012 season. Widely considered the worst offensive player
in 2012, Royals fans still see Frenchie atop the depth chart in right field
coming into 2013. In the final year of
his 2 year/ 13.5 contract there is pressure on Francoeur to show both the
Royals and the rest of the major leagues that he is skilled enough to provide
true value to a major league club. We
saw a .235/.287/.378 AVG/OBP/SLG line with poor base-running and defense (even
with his strong arm). All in all the WAR
stat tells us that Jeff Francoeur was about -1.2 wins below a ‘replacement’
player. With this in mind, it will take
some major strides in order for Francoeur to help a team hoping to make the
playoffs this season.
There are enough viable options in the Royals system that I suspect
Francoeur to have a shorter leash than last season. Players like Jerrod Dyson and David Lough
should get some starts in place of Francoeur, which really should help his
overall value. That being said, this is
a player that has had over 600 plate appearances the past two seasons, but it
is possible he plays more. Francoeur is
widely known an effective hitter against left handed pitching, having a .820
career OPS against southpaws compared to .702 versus RHP. In 2012 these numbers were .695 and .662,
respectively. Even most haters would
concede that they expect his numbers to improve, even if ever so slightly. We should expect about 150 AB’s versus left
handed hitters, and KC Royals fans should expect somewhere around his career
OPS v LHP (it was .934 in 2011). Fans
should also expect more time on the pine versus righties.
A best case scenario in my mind for 2013 would be for
Francoeur to turn into a Jonny Gomes like platoon player. Gomes has a much different style of play, but
provides similar value as a player who mashes vs lefties but can be a liability
on the field and the bases. Gomes
provided 2 WAR mostly based on his .974 OPS in 164 at bats versus lefties. The A’s only gave him 115 at bats versus
right handed pitching. I do not expect
to see Francoeur match Gomes numbers from last season, but I think we will see
him regain his ability to hit lefties. Still
only 29, it is also possible we will see slight improvements in defense and on
the bases compared to 2012. If used
correctly, Francoeur could be a productive player in terms of WAR, but it will
probably not add up to a full ‘win’.
It is not an eye popping conclusion that I came to that
Francoeur will most likely not earn his 2013 salary. He was, however, a 3 WAR player in 2011
during his 20HR/20SB season. If we would
have seen a match in ability (and luck) in 2011 the Royals would have him at a
discount. There is no secret that the
Royals have tried to move him, but fans will just have to deal with him for
this season. With Hochevar, the Royals
could have let him go during the offseason, but instead decided to keep him
around. I wonder if they did this with the
idea that he would be back in the rotation, or if they had an idea of their plan
to add enough arms to bounce Hoch to the pen.
I really have no major problem with these contracts, but it
is pretty telling that about ¼ of their salary goes to these two along with
new Royal Ervin Santana, another youngish player with some talent and upside,
but his 5.16/5.63 ERA/FIP over 178 innings was good for -0.9 WAR in 2012. The Royals have a ton of young talent on
offense and in the pen, and I understand that many fans appreciate the obvious
push for a playoff run. For the Royals
sake, let’s hope that these 20 million dollars do not go to waste in
2013.
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